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January - 2015
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
A report prepared by Oxford Economics for the World Travel & Tourism Council
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Contents
Foreword
Introduction
12
26
45
Annex A
51
Annex B
52
Annex C
60
Annex D
62
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Foreword
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is the global authority
on the economic and social contribution of Travel & Tourism.
It promotes sustainable growth for the sector, working with
governments and international institutions to create jobs, to drive
exports and to generate prosperity.
This research also shows that Travel & Tourisms Human Capital
challenges are significantly higher than those faced in other
sectors, with 37 out of 46 countries showing a talent deficit or
shortage in Travel & Tourism over the next ten years, compared
with only 6 out of 46 for the economy as a whole.
WTTC urges the industry both public and private sector to act
now to address the anticipated talent shortage. Travel & Tourism
has the power to create jobs across the economy - at different skills
levels, for often marginalised sectors of society such as young
people and women, and in areas where other opportunities are
scarce. We are a people industry we depend on quality people
to deliver a quality product and we need the right policies,
programmes and partnerships in place to ensure that the workforce
of the future knows about the opportunities in our sector, and has
the appropriate skills and knowledge to support future growth.
In the years to come, progress in developing and retaining talent will
require a much stronger and more co-ordinated effort between the
private sector, educational establishments and government. WTTC
and its Members will be at the forefront of this debate, discussion
and action to ensure the continued strength of Travel & Tourism.
David Scowsill
President & CEO
World Travel & Tourism Council
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Introduction
The rapid pace and extent of change in global and national markets for talent will
be significant across the economy as a whole and specifically for Travel & Tourism.
The market for Travel & Tourism talent is already challenged with high staff turnover,
competition with other industry sectors for the best people, and in some cases,
adverse supply trends such as declining demographics. New regulations, new
technology (which in some cases is squeezing out existing roles and creating demand
for new roles), shifts in customer service preferences, changing visitor markets, as
well as other industry drivers, all have the potential to transform the type of skills that
employees in Travel & Tourism will need to possess in future and employers will need to
train staff in.
Planning for and meeting future talent demand in Travel & Tourism is going to require
companies and governments to implement and promote proactive and careful talent
supply management policies and together with education, develop stronger and more
coordinated talent efforts. A thriving Travel & Tourism sector will also require regular
monitoring and projecting of talent demand, supply and imbalances to predict in
advance any looming shortages.
Although there are many talent commonalities facing the Travel & Tourism globally,
the talent environment is far from uniform across countries for demand, supply and
imbalances, and the enabling talent environment. There is huge diversity across
countries in terms of the general development and maturity of Travel & Tourism and the
stage they are at in the sectors growth cycle. So an understanding of the talent picture
for different countries is vital as a one-size fits all analytical picture and policy response
will be incorrect and ineffective. Understanding the sectors outlook and issues will be
crucial if Travel & Tourism is to realise its growth potential over the next decade.
Travel & Tourism is one of the worlds largest economic sectors. Current global
Travel & Tourism direct employment is over 100 million jobs (103 million jobs, 2014
forecast estimate1). Global Travel & Tourism direct employment is forecast to grow
at a faster pace (2.0% pa) than most other major industries and the global economy
employment average2. This is a result of a number of factors including the ongoing
structural transformation from industry to services in advanced and emerging
economies and the growth of the middle class globally resulting in changing consumer
patterns favourable to Travel & Tourism. In fact, many countries have even more
aspirational growth targets than assumed in the WTTC baseline scenario which would
require Travel & Tourism direct employment to grow even faster. For some of these
countries, given the analysis in this report, these aspirations will be very difficult to
realise given the projected talent trend deficits.
It is against this backdrop that WTTC commissioned Oxford Economics, one of the
worlds leading providers of global economic analysis, advice and models, to conduct this
research on 46 countries. The countries are geographically diverse, encompass all of the
worlds major economies and include countries such as Barbados, Morocco and Thailand
where Travel & Tourism is a particularly important sector. The 46 countries account for
81% and 88% of direct world Travel & Tourism employment and GDP respectively.
In the long-run economy-wide growth projections are constrained by the economys long-run potential output, which depends, among other
factors, on the long-run labour supply. Although sector-level demand projections are less directly constrained by overall labour supply on the
general assumption that demand for labour will be met from within the wider economy labour pool.
10
1.1
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
The projections for Travel & Tourism direct employment from WTTCs annual
economic impact research are based on top-down macroeconomic domestic
and international demand projections, linked to Oxford Economics Global
Macroeconomic Model3 and Tourism Economics Tourism Decision Metrics Model.
These demand-orientated growth projections for Travel & Tourism employment,
however, implicitly depend on a sufficient volume, availability and quality of talent
supply, which can be retained within the sector. If this is not the case, countries will
struggle to realise these growth projections.
In practice and over the long-run, there is no guarantee that each countrys
Travel & Tourism demand for talent will be met by its domestic supply (and external
supply). Nor is it guaranteed that a countrys Travel & Tourism talent base will be
compatible with the level of competitiveness needed to compete internationally
and achieve the projected international demand growth.
Talent vacancies, which in many cases may only be met by raising pay
levels substantially and attracting staff from other sectors, lead to higher
company operating costs and reduced profits in the short-term, and eroded
competitiveness and weaker growth and investment in the longer-term. An
alternative solution to filling these vacancies could be promotion of staff within the
sector before they are ready to proficiently fill these roles. The impacts of this are
different but again tend to be negative.
Talent skill gaps amongst existing employees, where positions are filled by
under-qualified and under-experienced staff, lead to inferior customer service and
quality standards, and create a host of other HR challenges.
The sectors often transient labour can limit its ability to deliver a consistently high
quality visitor experience. High staff turnover directly leads to higher recruitment
and advertising costs, higher training costs, reduced returns to training and an
increased workload on existing staff.
Together Travel & Tourism talent gaps and deficiencies impact on costs,
bottom-line profitability, competitiveness, service, quality, brand, investment and
ultimately future growth.
The impacts of Travel & Tourism talent imbalances and deficiencies are listed below.
These clearly demonstrate why talent issues are so important to the sectors growth
sustainability and bottom-line.
11
All of the above impacts relate to negative imbalances where the supply of
talent falls short of demand, directly affecting industry employers. But there are
negative consequences also where there is an excess supply of Travel & Tourism
talent, which affects more today and tomorrows future employees. These
negative consequences include, among others, downward pressure on wage
levels and lack of employment and career progression opportunities. In the 1990s
and early 2000s, the global economy experienced a boom and bust in the IT
talent market. During the tech boom, talent was attracted to IT by the growing job
opportunities and financial remuneration on offer. The dot com crash led to heavy
jobs losses and remuneration fell behind other sectors. Even as the IT industry
and talent demand market quickly recovered, the perception of the industry was
scarred and supply was slow to respond leading to global talent shortages which
are still prevalent today.
12
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
13
2.1
Academic articles and published reports have focused a great deal on human capital
issues, many of which have enormous implications and impact on
Travel & Tourism companies and the future of the in sector as a whole. These issues
include the structural characteristics of the Travel & Tourism sector; Travel & Tourism
talent supply; imbalances between Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply; why
Travel & Tourism experiences talent challenges; Travel & Tourism talent projections;
and Travel & Tourism talent best practice policy examples, including case studies.
The talent market, in general and for Travel & Tourism, is becoming increasingly global
with higher cross-border migration7.
Looking to the future, the following megatrends will exert a significant influence on the
future supply of talent to Travel & Tourism, although to varying degrees by country:
declining youth demographics; retirement of the baby boom generation; rising female
labour market participation; a general shift towards a more highly skilled (in education
attainment terms) labour supply as older, less skilled workers retire; and the potential for
some reverse migration back to fast growing emerging economies8.
UK Commission for Employment and Skills Skills Sector Insights: Tourism: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er55-sector-skills-insights-tourism
WTTC Human Capital Research: http://www.wttc.org/focus/research-for-action/policy-research/human-capital-research/
7
The Hospitality Talent Gap, China Business Review: http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/the-hospitality-talent-gap/
8
The World Economic Forum, cited in The Hospitality Talent Gap, China Business Review: http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/the-hospitality-talentgap/
5
4
The 41 respondents to the survey represent the talent situation amongst companies from almost all
Travel & Tourism industries and cover 25 countries, as well as a collective view for Europe and the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC). The survey was administered by WTTC and designed in conjunction
with Oxford Economics.
14
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
2.2
2.2.3
Talent imbalances in Travel & Tourism take many forms, covering both shortages and
surpluses:
Shortage or surplus of certain soft skills, e.g. customer service, problem solving
2.2.4
A key finding from the literature review was the lack of countries actually
undertaking and publishing research on Travel & Tourism talent issues. This holds
also for those countries with the largest (in absolute and relative terms) and fastest
growing Travel & Tourism industries, and for countries which this research predicts
will experience the greatest future talent hotspots and stretch points.
It could be the case that in many countries, stakeholders, away from the cold face
of Travel & Tourism (e.g. from government and education), are not aware or made
aware of talent challenges because of this lack of reported evidence. It is hoped
that this research may fill some of that gap in evidence and prompt these countries
to look more closely at Travel & Tourism talent issues and build on this research.
The limited evidence that exists from literature shows that: the UK has a higher
share of Travel & Tourism businesses and employees with skill gaps (21% and
9%) compared to the economy average; in Australia, according to analysis by the
Australian Government, a very high share (half) of Travel & Tourism businesses
faces recruitment, retention and skill shortages9; and in Rwanda technical skill
gaps are reported to be as high as 25% of Travel & Tourisms total employment in
Rwanda and 50% of staff need language training in English, French and Chinese
(languages aligned to visitor origin markets).
Australia Government 2012: Tackling labour and skills issues in the tourism and hospitality industry: A guide to developing tourism employment plans:
https://www.austrade.gov.au/Tourism/Policies/National-long-term-strategy/Working-groups/Labour-and-Skills Manpower Group - 2014 Talent
Shortage Survey Results: http://www.manpowergroup.co.uk/media/137404/2014_talent_shortage_wp_us2.pdf
Over half of the Travel & Tourism companies in the WTTC member survey described
their experience of hiring staff as difficult, with the challenge greatest for higher skilled
and more professional roles. Alongside engineers, chefs and other technical roles,
other jobs that are particularly difficult to recruit for include accountants and food &
beverage managers. Nearly two-thirds of the companies also reported that recruiting
staff has become more difficult in the past two years.
2.2.2
15
16
2.3
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Retention
The Travel & Tourism sector faces talent problems from high staff turnover and
leakage of talent to other sectors20, which is often far in excess of the demand from
Travel & Tourisms expansion21.
In the UK, turnover ranges from 7.5% for self-catered accommodation to over a
quarter for pubs, bars and nightclubs22.
The seasonal nature of Travel & Tourism demand in many destinations means that
it is often difficult to offer year-round full-time employment which other sectors can
and do offer13.
The geographically remote location of some Travel & Tourism businesses can also
mean limited local talent supply. This can be exacerbated by other constraints
such as lack of local housing and transport connecting tourism businesses to
larger pools of labour14.
In some countries cultural and social issues make Travel & Tourism less attractive
than other sectors, and place a glass ceiling on female employment participation15.
The WTTC member survey also concluded that companies have to place
emphasis on creating structures and systems within their organisations to best
retain their workforce. The survey also highlighted flexible recruitment and
retention practices as the new necessities of workforce planning.
Low barriers to enter the sector can have a drawback: namely the perception of
low skilled, low paid, menial transient jobs16.
A lack of clear staff development pathways, unsociable working hours and low
earnings potential (for some job roles) combine to create a poor recruitment image
for the sector17.
Travel & Tourism has some unique features that make it a challenging sector to recruit
and retain talent and skills.
Uncompetitive pay
Competition
Travel & Tourism often faces strong competition from other fast-growing sectors
recruiting similar types of talent and often paying higher salaries18.
Survey results of WTTC member companies show that for two-thirds of senior
HR managers, recruitment challenges over the next five years are expected to get
even more difficult as competition for talent is expected to further increase among
sectors and across geographies. The survey found that a strong employer brand
can both improve application rates for new employees and increase engagement
and retention among the current workforce.
13
17
Rather than facing an overall general lack of applicants for vacancies, WTTC
member countries reported that some applicants who apply to vacancies tend
to want higher levels of pay than can be offered, or do not have the required skills
or experience required. In many cases also, applicants were said to lack the right
attitude or motivation to fit with the company. Trying to maintain competitiveness
through benchmarking the salaries of similar roles in competitor companies and
industries is becoming common place among WTTC member companies.
Education supply
In some countries there is a lack of provision of Travel & Tourism courses from
education institutions, often due to a lack of qualified tourism educators23.
Where Travel & Tourism courses are offered, the curricula can be poorly designed
and outdated. There often needs to be a greater balance between theory and
practice, a change from a traditional teaching mode to a more modernized,
international, innovative, and interactive teaching mode, and in general greater
responsiveness to and alignment with the sectors needs.
Although growing, the number of Travel & Tourism apprenticeships and volume of
vocational provision in general typically falls short of demand.
McKinsey Global Institute - Talent tensions ahead: A CEO briefing, Richard Dobbs, Susan Lund, and Anu Madgavkar: http://www.mckinsey.com/
insights/economic_studies/talent_tensions_ahead_a_ceo_briefing
15
http://www.yoursingapore.com/TravelRave/resources/TravelRave2013-Highlights-Report_Navigating-the-next-wave-in-Asia%27-Tourism.pdf
16
UK state of nation report 2013: http://www.people1st.co.uk/research/reports/state-of-the-nation-hospitality-and-tourism
17
UK state of nation report 2013: http://www.people1st.co.uk/research/reports/state-of-the-nation-hospitality-and-tourism
18
UK Commission for Employment and Skills Skills Sector Insights: Tourism: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er55-sector-skills-insightstourism
19
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of
Tourism Workforce In the OIC Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).
14
UK Commission for Employment and Skills Skills Sector Insights: Tourism: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er55-sector-skills-insightstourism
21
Anecdotal evidence suggests turnover in Chinese hotels is as high as 40%.
22
State of the Nation 2013 Hospitality and Tourism report: http://www.people1st.co.uk/research/reports/state-of-the-nation-hospitality-and-tourism
23
Rwanda Development Board Rwanda Skill Survey 2012 T&H Report: http://www.lmis.gov.rw/scripts/publication/reports/Tourism.pdf
20
18
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Structural characteristics
Some occupations are heavily gender biased, e.g. housekeepers (female) versus
chefs (male). This limits potential talent supply if, for example, few males apply for
housekeeping positions24.
Not all employers proactively pursue or have in place a strategy to address talent
challenges. In some cases this is understandable given that many Travel & Tourism
businesses are small and lack talent management capacity by not having an inhouse human resources department.
Some firms under-invest in staff up-skilling, which is likely to be partly linked to the
transient nature and high turnover characteristics of the workforce.
In some countries, there is a lack of training to nurture middle managers and a lack
of relevant rotational opportunities with workplaces25.
Young employees are more likely to engage with training which meets their
personal as well as company needs and aspirations. So for young people,
purely functional, task-related training is valued less than more generic skills
development26.
2.4
In economies with fast growing Travel & Tourism industries, more focus has often
been placed on investing in physical infrastructure rather than talent27.
Too few countries undertake either formal Travel & Tourism workforce planning
exercises or detailed talent studies.
25
It is useful to compare the factors above, for why Travel & Tourism experiences
talent gaps and deficiencies, with economy-wide reasons why employers
have difficulty filling jobs. According to the ManpowerGroup talent shortage
survey29, the main reasons employers had difficulty filling jobs in 2014 include, in
descending order: lack of technical competence (hard skills), lack of applicants,
lack of experience, lack of workplace competence (soft skills), looking for more
pay than is offered, undesirable geographic destination, poor image of business
sector/occupation and lack of applicants willing to work in part-time/contingent
roles. It is clear that many of these reasons correlate closely with the factors
identified specifically for Travel & Tourism.
Replacement demand is not unique to Travel & Tourism. All sectors in any dynamic
economy with retirement and labour churn have a talent requirement relating to
replacement demand. The extent of replacement demand depends on a number
of factors including the age and gender structure of the workforce, staff turnover
and an industrys relative appeal. Travel & Tourisms younger than average age
structure should reduce replacement demand but its more female-orientated
workforce and high staff turnover would increase it. It is difficult to compare
replacement demand across sectors due to limited data availability and therefore
difficult to assess whether Travel & Tourism has a larger relative replacement
demand talent requirement.
The balance between new roles and replacement demand will vary by country. In
countries with more mature and slower growing Travel & Tourism industries, and
older workforces, replacement demand will account for a higher share of vacancies.
There will be a rising gradient of talent demand across Travel & Tourism a slow
shift to more high skilled openings but there will still be significant opportunities
and demand for people with low qualifications32.
There will be a growing demand for managerial skills and customer service. Future
managers will need to have broader management and business competencies33.
30
19
20
2.5
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
In some countries, especially those where Travel & Tourism is rapidly growing from
a relatively immature base, even where talent supply is increasing, the volume of
talent supply with specific industry qualifications is only a fraction of the volume of
future Travel & Tourism talent demand.
Looking ahead, future talent trends and demand vary globally in the sector. For
example34, in Canada talent shortages in Travel & Tourism are projected to increase
substantially as the babyboom generation retires. Although immigration and higher
labour market participation by women will partially offset the departure of baby
boomers, these two factors are not expected to be enough. The projected talent
shortfall is equivalent to 10% of total employment, with shortages most severe for
food and beverage services35. In Hainan, China, a huge talent shortage is projected
given the predicted tripling in demand in a short period of time36 while in Asia there is
predicted to be an 8 million talent shortage by 2021 in Travel & Tourism37. The supply
of hotel managers is expected to meet less than half of potential demand.
Note these examples are determined by the availability of literature evidence. As said above, a key finding from the literature review was the lack of
countries undertaking and publishing research on Travel & Tourism talent issues, including producing projections.
35
Canadian Tourism Research Institute The Future of Canadas Tourism Sector: http://cthrc.ca/~/media/Files/CTHRC/Home/research_publications/
labour_market_information/Supply_Demand/SupplyDemand_Report_Current_EN.ashx
36
http://www.whatsonsanya.com/news-18722.html
37
2012 Study by the Singapore Tourism Board (STB) and The Boston Consulting Group
38
Manpower Group - 2014 Talent Shortage Survey Results: http://www.manpowergroup.co.uk/media/137404/2014_talent_shortage_wp_us2.pdf
21
The ManpowerGroup talent shortage survey report also outlines the evolving role
of HR practitioners. They are now expected to be experts in supply and demand,
marketers (since talent is now also a savvy and sophisticated consumer) and
designers (thinking differently how to structure work to access, mobilise, optimise
and unleash the potential of current and prospective employees).
34
A youthful workforce
22
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
2.5.2
2.5.3
23
For Singapore only, its case study evidence covers both economy-wide and
Travel & Tourism talent best practice. Singapore generally is a regarded as an
exemplar for its talent policies.
INDUSTRY
EDUCATION
GOVERNMENT
Both of the above examples clearly contribute to high quality, up-to-date and
transparent labour market intelligence which go a long way to eliminating
information asymmetries for employers, employees and students.
Undertake forward-looking
workforce planning and industry
talent research, including for
example, research to understand
investment required to address skills
gaps41
Have in place a Travel & Tourism
talent strategy at all education levels
including lifelong learning
Engage regularly with industry and
other stakeholders
The survey of WTTC member companies showed that the majority of companies have talent strategies in place for both the immediate future and in
the short term (2-5 years). However, this share drops to less than one-third for those that have a strategy with a longer term view.
40
According to the survey, WTTC member companies offer a vast array of benefits to many of its employees, including, among others: bonuses that
are based on the overall performance of the company: 94%; private healthcare: 78%; individual performance-related pay: 72%; share options for
employees: 53%; and subsidised childcare: 19%.
41
European Commission 2012, Rethinking Education: Investing in Skills for Better Socioeconomic Outcomes
The Singapore Government has invested heavily in Travel & Tourisms manpower
capabilities. This funding has represented a sizable share of total Government
spending on developing the industry, highlighting the recognition given to talent
and its importance to the sector. The goals of the funding included: ramping up
advanced specialist training in new niche tourism areas where gaps existed,
staying ahead of regional competitors, and increasing accessibility to new
education opportunities with the help of scholarships.
39
42
24
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
2.5.4
2.5.5
2.5.6
The overall goal of the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council (CTHRC) is
to improve the quality and competitiveness of the Canadian tourism labour force.
Primarily, the CTHRC assists businesses with HR planning and training, as well as
offering consultancy services in the development of occupational standards, skill
standards, training, assessment, certification and administration.
Direct backing from the Canadian Government, which funds all development
and updates of standards, training and certification programmes, has brought
recognition to the importance of standards within Travel & Tourism. The
programme and programme standards are further validated by their inclusion in
public and private education systems.
2.5.7
According to COMCEC45, tourism in Egypt is set to grow in the next decade and
will have a significant role in the sustainability of the countrys culture, economy,
environment and state security.
43
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of
Tourism Workforce In the OIC Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).
44
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of
Tourism Workforce In the OIC Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).
45
Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (COMCEC), Enhancing the Capacity of
Tourism Workforce In the OIC Member Countries For Improved Tourism Service Quality (2014).
46
47
25
To address this, efforts are being made to improve the skills of personnel
employed in the tourism sector.
Located in Vientiane, the Lao National Institute of Tourism and Hospitalitys (LANITH)
mission is to be the countrys most valuable tourism education resource. It has
established a national tourism curriculum, using forward-thinking teaching methods,
and provides international-level training facilities, resources and equipment47.
LANITH provides training aimed at both school leavers and tourism professionals.
New students take a two-year Diploma in Tourism and Hospitality while the Passport
to Success training program is available to employees already working in the sector.
Passport to Success started in 2011 and is now the biggest industry training
program in Laos, offering short vocational courses in areas such as customer
service, kitchen management and food production. To date, almost 1,000
hospitality and tourism staff have studied subjects such as customer service, food
and beverage operations, management and communications.
LANITH were winners of the 2014 WTTC Tourism for Tomorrow People award. The
institute was recognised for developing tourism intelligently and sustainably, while
also ensuring that its Lao citizens benefit from growth of the sector.
www.etf.org.eg
Pacific Asia Travel Association: http://www.pata.org/Members/6461
26
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
27
3.1
The top 5 and bottom 5 countries for Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply
growth in the long-run to 2024 are presented in Table 3.1 below.
The top 5 rankings for both Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply future growth
are dominated by emerging economies in the Middle East and South East Asia, as well
as Costa Rica (demand) and Turkey (demand and supply).
The bottom 5 rankings are dominated by ageing European and North East Asian
countries, plus Australia (demand) and Russia (supply).
Table 3.1: Top and bottom 5 countries for Travel & Tourism
talent demand and supply growth (2014-2024)
Top & Bottom 5 countries for Travel & Tourism talent demand and supply growth
(Long-run, 2014-2024)
RANK
DEMAND
Caveat: This research is a first step to building a rich and comparable global evidence base on Travel & Tourism talent demand, supply and imbalances,
and the current talent enabling environment. But in order to deepen and broaden global Travel & Tourism talent analysis, and improve the robustness
of the analysis, other research stages could be undertaken, notably a bespoke industry survey with a much larger sample than achieved by the survey
of WTTC member companies, and in-depth consultations with a range of stakeholders. This should be borne in mind when viewing and drawing
conclusions from the results of this chapter.
SUPPLY
THAILAND
SAUDI ARABIA
TURKEY
BAHRAIN
SAUDI ARABIA
OMAN
OMAN
TURKEY
COSTA RICA
PHILIPPINES
SOUTH KOREA
42
42
AUSTRIA
AUSTRALIA
43
43
CZECH REPUBLIC
JAPAN
44
44
SOUTH KOREA
GERMANY
45
45
JAPAN
NORWAY
46
46
RUSSIA
28
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Figures 3.1 to 3.4 overleaf chart the talent demand-supply balance projections across
the 46 countries for:
The long-run (2014-2024) for all education levels combined versus the
Total Economy long-run outlook;
The long-run (2014-2024) for all education levels combined versus the
medium-run (2014-2019) outlook.
3.1.3
Note recap the figures refer to the percentage point difference in projected
Travel & Tourism talent supply growth minus projected Travel & Tourism talent demand
growth. A positive figure refers to a trend talent surplus and a negative figure a trend
talent deficit.
3.1.2
29
Travel & Tourism also has less favourable talent supply projections in two-thirds of
the 46 countries, although the differences are relatively small. This is because Travel
& Tourisms talent demand structure is more weighted towards lower education
attainment levels which are decreasing as a share of total labour supply in most
economies.
3.1.4
30
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
31
3.1.5
32
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
33
Table 3.2: Countries with projected talent deficit trends < -1% (acute talent shortages)
Travel & Tourism: Talent deficit
All education
levels
All education
levels
College /
University level
High school
level
Below High
school level
Long-run
(2014-2024)
Medium-run
(2014-2024)
Long-run
(2014-2024)
Long-run
(2014-2024)
Long-run
(2014-2024)
-2.9
-1.4
-2.1
-1.3
-1.6
-1.6
-1.4
-1.6
-2.5
-1.1
-2.3
-2.6
-1.4
Notes: Trend talent surplus > 0; Trend talent demand-supply balance 0; Trend talent deficit < 0
Source: Oxford Economics, WTTC
34
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
3.1.6
China was an interesting case where there was a mixed response with 3
respondents saying the projection was too optimistic and 5 too pessimistic. This
may jointly reflect concerns about meeting Chinas strong talent demand outlook,
but at the same time confidence in Chinas proven track record of doing what is
necessary to realise its wider economy and sector-specific growth potential.
35
Travel &
Tourism
Feedback
from survey of
WTTC member
companies
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too optimistic
Too pessimistic
Too pessimistic
Too pessimistic
Too pessimistic
Too pessimistic
36
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
India: Indias economy is on an upturn and there will be severe skill shortages in
the hospitality industry. It is already happening now.
India and China: While China and India may produce a lot of college graduates, many
of them chose not to stay in the Travel & Tourism industry or aspire to go overseas as
in the case of India. Also, in these two countries, Travel & Tourism expansions are into
tertiary markets where the educated may not chose to go work in.
GCC countries: In the Gulf region countries, despite graduating from a few
hospitality colleges, the young nationals do not work in hospitality (as a result of
salary, culture and working times). Today, there is no structure to develop young
people in hospitality below high school.
Netherlands and France: In the Netherlands and France, it will be more difficult
to attract people to the Travel & Tourism sector because of lack of flexibility and
demands of the sector in flexibility.
Japan: Japan already faces difficulty in recruiting quality human resources in the
lodging and ground transportation industries.
South Africa: The South African education system is currently not progressing so
there will be an even greater talent shortage as currently experienced.
Fig 3.5: Thailand - balance between demand for and supply of talent in the Travel & Tourism
Sector in the Long-Run (2014-2024), Medium-Run (2014-2019) and Short-Run (2014-2015)
and By Education Attainment Level
Thailand:
T&T
supply
minus
demand
future
balance
Thailand:Talent
Talent supply
supply
minus
demand
future
balance
Thailand:
Talent
supply
minusfuture
demand
future balanceThailand: T&T
Thailand:
supply
minus
demand
future
balance
Thailand:
minus
demand
balance
supplyT&T
minus
demand
future
balance
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-2.0
-2.0
-2.5
-2.5
-3.0
-3.0
-3.5
-4.0
-4.5
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-3.5
Economy:
Total supply minus
Economy: Total supply
minus
demand
demand
-5.0
-4.0
T&T: Total
skill weighted supply
T&T: Total skill weighted
supply
minus
demand
minus
demand
-4.5
-6.0
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Oxford
Economics, WTTC
Source: OxfordSource:
Economics,
WTTC
-3.0
T&T: College
T&T: College educated
supplyeducated
minus supply minus
demand
demand
-4.0
High school
T&T: High schoolT&T:
educated
supplyeducated supply
minus demand minus demand
-5.0
Below
high school educated
T&T: Below highT&T:
school
educated
supply minus demand
supply minus demand
-6.0
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Oxford
Economics, WTTC
Source: OxfordSource:
Economics,
WTTC
India is projected to have a modest Travel & Tourism talent surplus trend in the
long-run, similar to the economy as a whole. Surplus talent trends are projected
for college and high school level, but a talent deficit trend is projected for below
high school level.
3.1.7
Poland: The Poland forecast is too pessimistic. The Travel & Tourism market is
rather stable and compared to the existing number of schools and faculties related
to this area, there is even a slight surplus of potential talents.
37
Fig 3.6: India - balance between demand for and supply of talent in the Travel & Tourism
Sector in the Long-Run (2014-2024), Medium-Run (2014-2019) and Short-Run (2014-2015)
and By Education Attainment Level
India: T&T supply minus demand future balance
India: Talent supply minus demand future balance
India: Talent
India:
supply
Talent
minus
supply
demand
minus
future
demand
balance
future balance India: T&T supply
India: T&T
minus
supply
demand
minus
future
demand
balance
future balance
0.7
3.0
0.7
0.6
0.6
2.5
T&T: Total skill weighted
T&T: Total
supply
skillminus
weighted
demand
supply minus demand
0.5
0.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
-1.5
-0.5
-2.0
-0.2
Short-run (2014-15)
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Long-run (2014-24)
2.5
2.0
0.4
-0.2
3.0
-0.5 educated
T&T: College
T&T: supply
Collegeminus
educated supply minus
demand
demand
-1.0
T&T: High school educated
T&T: Highsupply
schoolminus
educated supply minus
demand
demand
-1.5
T&T: Below high school
T&T: Below
educated
highsupply
school educated supply
minus demand minus demand
-2.0
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
Short-run (2014-15)
Medium-run (2014-19)
Long-run (2014-24)
38
3.2
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
An analysis of the literature identified the characteristics of a country that are important
in enabling the development and growth of talent for Travel & Tourism, the enabling
environment. These are:
Table 3.4 explains a countrys overall ranking by also showing its standardised
z-scores for each pillar. Z-scores for each variable within each pillar are provided
in Annex C.
There are several different reasons why the countries listed above rank top and bottom.
For the UAE and Qatar, ranked 1st and 2nd, demographics, labour market
flexibility and openness are key pillar strengths. For Singapore, ranked 4th,
customer service, labour market flexibility, openness, general quality of human
resources and training are the main pillar strengths.
39
The threat from growing retail sectors in China and India could pose to
Travel & Tourism in terms of competing for talent.
Like other global indices similar to this talent enabling environment analysis, countries
can use the results in Table 3.4 (and more detailed analysis in Annex C) to pinpoint
areas of talent strength to maintain, showcase and improve, and identify areas of
weakness to address. Although not fully comprehensive, this information, alongside
the talent demand-supply balance projections, would serve as a useful starting point
for countries considering developing talent strategies for Travel & Tourism.
40
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
3.2.2
Table 3.4: Travel & Tourism talent enabling environment pillar z scores
Travel & Tourism: Talent enabling environment overall and pillar z scores
Overal
Weight
Customer
service
Demographics
Flexibility
of labour
market
Industry
relative
attractiveness
Openness
Prioritisation
of T&T and
existing T&T
skill base
Quality of
general
human
resources
100%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
Qatar
0.88
1.33
1.65
1.73
0.69
2.06
-0.59
UAE
0.81
0.64
1.82
1.80
0.26
2.09
0.93
Switzerland
0.76
1.61
-0.45
2.01
-0.31
1.08
Singapore
0.58
0.84
0.01
2.04
-1.21
Malaysia
0.52
0.75
1.11
1.28
0.03
US
0.46
0.66
-0.26
1.89
Austria
0.44
1.54
-0.50
-020
Sweden
0.42
1.44
-0.45
UK
0.38
0.44
Thailand
0.37
0.62
Costa Rica
0.36
0.07
Canada
0.33
0.82
Bermuda
0.31
-0.71
Barbados
0.28
Netherlands
Saudi Arabia
Bahrain
0.17
-0.13
Morocco
0.11
-0.73
10%
10%
0.55
2.08
-1.14
0.47
0.90
-0.01
-0.83
0.52
0.09
1.42
0.58
-0.03
1.65
1.07
0.63
1.41
0.43
-0.28
0.89
0.45
1.03
0.00
0.14
-0.49
0.82
-0.48
0.29
-0.28
1.46
0.64
0.28
0.86
0.46
-0.31
0.82
0.63
0.99
0.05
1.25
-0.95
-0.67
0.67
-0.20
1.07
-0.28
0.61
1.11
-0.40
1.31
0.80
0.50
0.42
1.14
1.87
0.27
1.06
0.07
1.12
1.30
0.00
0.78
-0.74
-0.03
-0.16
-0.64
0.85
1.00
-0.68
-0.21
0.53
0.13
0.36
-0.22
0.18
-0.47
1.75
-0.03
0.05
-0.40
1.11
0.04
0.40
0.65
-0.08
0.98
-0.21
-0.08
2.08
0.37
-1.27
1.95
-0.08
-0.71
-0.08
0.98
-0.89
-0.21
2.26
0.37
-0.29
0.73
-0.08
0.25
0.55
-0.59
-0.79
1.40
0.81
0.40
1.04
0.26
0.38
1.33
0.21
0.09
1.07
1.56
-0.19
0.71
-0.80
-0.19
-0.62
-1.13
-0.04
1.22
0.58
2.98
1.13
0.36
-0.31
-0.33
-0.61
0.00
0.82
0.41
2.29
-0.18
1.49
-1.50
-0.84
-0.43
-0.92
0.11
-0.69
1.01
0.38
2.35
Taiwan
0.07
-1.19
0.25
-1.15
0.43
-1.36
0.06
1.83
-0.14
0.44
-0.75
-0.44
0.37
-0.85
-0.42
-0.72
-0.64
0.04
1.26
Australia
0.00
0.48
-0.13
0.13
-0.65
-0.77
-0.28
0.30
0.51
-0.22
0.36
-0.21
-0.65
-0.35
-0.64
0.27
0.53
0.18
0.21
0.46
Norway
-0.02
China
-0.03
0.26
-0.29
-1.00
1.01
0.63
-0.33
0.80
-0.99
0.21
0.84
-1.02
0.21
1.09
-0.71
0.70
-0.58
-0.04
-1.42
0.19
-0.47
Japan
-0.05
2.45
-0.99
-0.98
1.12
-0.84
-0.42
0.10
0.31
-0.30
0.92
Peru
-0.06
-0.26
1.02
-0.36
-0.02
-0.36
-0.49
-1.02
0.99
0.12
-1.34
Turkey
Chile
-0.06
0.62
0.77
1.05
1.05
-0.53
-0.20
-0.68
-0.35
-0.25
-0.98
-0.07
-0.77
0.37
-0.08
1.34
0.54
-0.64
0.31
-1.24
-0.16
-0.10
Mexico
-0.10
-0.29
0.98
-0.51
-1.01
-0.19
0.69
-0.80
-1.19
-0.42
-0.62
South Korea
-0.14
1.04
-0.13
-0.41
-0.18
-0.68
-0.56
0.18
0.59
-0.35
-0.08
France
Oman
-0.14
-0.62
-0.54
-1.14
1.13
-0.80
0.40
0.17
0.29
0.65
0.34
Phillippines
-0.15
0.42
1.10
-0.39
-0.31
-0.96
-0.10
-1.27
-1.11
0.03
-0.32
Spain
-0.15
-0.75
-0.64
-0.86
-0.87
0.15
0.82
0.25
-1.09
1.86
-0.95
Kuwait
-0.15
-0.69
1.25
-0.04
1.08
1.08
-2.02
-0.54
2.38
-0.47
-1.62
Brazil
-0.16
-0.35
0.75
-0.53
1.32
-0.64
-0.71
-1.01
-0.12
-0.02
-0.01
Indonesia
-0.16
-0.84
0.85
0.86
1.41
-0.21
-0.67
-1.57
-0.83
-0.14
-0.39
India
-0.19
-0.66
1.02
0.48
-0.88
-0.77
-0.31
-1.34
-1.78
0.70
-0.63
Germany
-0.21
0.75
-0.85
-0.81
-0.44
-0.14
-1.08
0.64
-0.74
-0.25
1.23
Czech
Republic
-0.22
-0.57
-0.53
-0.44
0.53
-0.53
0.01
0.08
0.14
0.06
-0.02
Greece
-0.22
-1.06
-0.71
-0.46
0.02
-0.30
1.13
-0.19
-0.98
1.70
-1.88
Poland
-0.28
-0.27
-0.41
-0.27
0.41
-0.76
-1.39
-0.27
0.54
0.38
-0.33
Colombia
-0.28
-0.07
0.81
0.08
1.08
-0.11
-0.67
-0.89
-1.30
0.40
-1.43
Argentina
-0.33
-2.61
0.51
-1.09
-0.46
0.40
-0.45
-0.70
0.48
0.07
-0.98
Italy
-0.33
-0.49
-0.82
-1.02
-0.33
-0.04
-0.24
0.05
0.46
0.52
-1.28
Egypt
-0.38
-0.99
0.90
-0.58
2.48
-1.13
0.55
-1.58
-0.83
-0.46
-2.15
Russia
-0.74
-2.49
-0.36
0.04
-1.23
-1.08
-1.55
-0.94
1.26
0.31
-1.39
Training
Recruitment Spare lacompetition bour market
capacity
and female
participation
10%
South Africa
41
SINGAPORE
RUSSIA
Customer service
0.84
-2.49
Demographics
0.01
-0.36
2.04
0.04
-1.21
-1.23
Openness
1.07
-1.08
Prioritisation of Travel & Tourism and existing Travel & Tourism skills base
0.63
-1.55
1.41
-0.94
Recruitment competition
0.43
1.26
-0.28
0.31
Training
0.89
-1.39
Overall
0.58
-0.74
42
3.3
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
43
Table 3.6: Travel & Tourism talent demand-supply balance projections and
talent enabling environment ranks
As Table 3.6 shows, the overall top and bottom 5 ranked countries are:
Top 5 ranked: UAE, Qatar, US, Barbados and Bahrain.
Bottom 5 ranked: Russia, Poland, Argentina, Italy and Greece.
Methodology 1
Methodology 2
100%
10%
10%
Talent
demand-supply balance
projections
(2014-2024)
Talent
enabling
environment
30%
50%
Rank difference:
Talent demand-supply
balance projections
minus talent enabling
environment
UAE
35
15
13
Qatar
34
12
22
21
10
US
17
22
16
In general, although not always, the top and bottom ranked countries rank
relatively strong or weak for the talent demand-supply balance projections and the
talent enabling environment scores.
Barbados
26
10
14
-4
Bahrain
39
17
-13
Canada
19
21
17
12
Switzerland
23
24
32
29
Table 3.6 also highlights differences in ranking results between the two
methodologies. There are notable differences reflecting the two opposing but
complementary concepts being measured: methodology 1 focuses on future
demand and supply volume projections, while methodology 2 is more about
current talent supply characteristics. In fact these differences help to explain some
of the feedback from WTTC Member companies on which
demand-supply balance projections were deemed to be too optimistic or
pessimistic: too optimistic - India, Germany, Brazil and Indonesia (their talent
enabling environment ranks are much weaker than their demand-supply balance
ranks); too pessimistic Taiwan and Thailand (their talent enabling environment
ranks are stronger than their demand-supply balance ranks).
Australia
27
22
-16
Norway
39
23
-20
UK
10
13
29
26
17
Morocco
11
31
11
13
18
-5
Austria
12
42
29
22
-7
South Africa
13
25
17
12
19
Malaysia
14
36
14
34
29
12
Bermuda
15
11
34
25
13
Saudi Arabia
16
44
21
16
Singapore
17
26
31
38
34
Philippines
18
29
32
-31
China
19
10
25
14
24
-10
Netherlands
20
16
28
31
15
16
Sweden
21
28
32
39
31
India
22
21
10
37
-35
Japan
23
45
18
25
-7
Costa Rica
24
42
15
41
11
30
Brazil
25
18
18
35
-26
Chile
26
15
23
20
28
-8
Oman
27
43
33
20
13
Mexico
28
33
13
19
29
-10
Indonesia
29
22
19
11
36
-25
Germany
30
41
38
-31
France
31
12
30
24
31
-7
Colombia
32
27
42
-34
Thailand
33
46
37
46
10
36
Spain
34
33
23
33
-10
Egypt
35
30
45
-40
South Korea
36
44
27
30
-3
Turkey
37
45
36
27
Kuwait
38
40
30
34
-4
Taiwan
39
32
38
44
21
23
Peru
40
41
16
42
26
16
Czech Republic
41
43
28
39
-11
Greece
42
14
36
35
40
-5
Italy
43
24
35
37
44
-7
Argentina
44
38
20
40
43
-3
Poland
45
37
40
45
41
Russia
46
20
46
43
46
-3
44
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Figure 3.7 below plots results from both methodologies on a single chart. A number of
observations can be made:
Almost no countries are located in the ideal (from a Travel & Tourism
perspective) bottom right quadrant these would be countries with a
projected talent trend surplus and strong talent enabling environment. This
is indicative of the general talent challenge facing the sector globally.
Most countries are located to the left of the y-axis (indicating a projected
talent balance deficit), but have a wide range of talent enabling
environment ranks (although this is to be expected because by default a
ranking measure will have low and high ratings).
The least ideal countries, from a sector talent perspective, are those in the
top left quadrant. These are countries with a projected talent trend deficit
and weak talent enabling environment. They include those countries which
rank weakest for the combined composite ranks (column two of Table 3.6)
such as Russia, Poland, Italy, Greece and Argentina.
Countries such as Singapore and Switzerland, while also having projected
talent trend deficits, at least have the advantage of top rankings for their
Travel & Tourism talent enabling environment. That said, if the Travel &
Tourism sector in these countries struggles to exploit this strong talent
enabling environment for example if it is unable to hire the workforce that
it needs the enabling environment will be of limited benefit to the sector.
50
Italy
Russia
Egypt
45
Argentina Greece
Poland
40
India
35
Brazil
30
25
Peru
China
20
Taiwan
Bahrain
15
Thailand
10
US
Singapore
Switzerland
0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
45
Upward pressure on wages leading to higher operating costs and reduced profits,
which combined with other factors would lower productivity
Higher recruitment and advertising costs, higher training costs, reduced returns
to training and increased workload on and lower morale amongst existing staff, all
resulting from high staff turnover
46
4.1
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
47
Labour
productivity
Thailand
-2.3
-1.0
Poland
-1.5
-1.5
Taiwan
-1.5
-1.5
Russia
-1.5
-1.5
Argentina
-1.3
-1.5
Italy
-1.3
-1.5
Peru
-1.2
-1.5
Turkey
-1.5
-1.0
Czech Republic
-1.0
-1.5
Greece
-0.8
-1.5
Costa Rica
-1.5
-0.5
France
-0.7
-1.0
South Korea
-0.7
-1.0
Colombia
-0.6
-1.0
Spain
-0.7
-1.0
Oman
-1.1
-0.5
Kuwait
-0.6
-1.0
Malaysia
-1.3
0.0
Morocco
-1.3
0.0
Sweden
-1.2
0.0
Singapore
-1.2
0.0
Switzerland
-1.2
0.0
Saudi Arabia
-1.2
0.0
Japan
-0.6
-0.5
Indonesia
-0.6
-0.5
Bermuda
-1.0
0.0
Egypt
0.0
-1.0
Chile
-0.5
-0.5
Austria
-1.0
0.0
Bahrain
-1.0
0.0
Brazil
-0.5
-0.5
Mexico
-0.4
-0.5
UK
-0.8
0.0
Germany
-0.3
-0.5
UAE
-0.7
0.0
Canada
-0.7
0.0
Netherlands
-0.7
0.0
South Africa
-0.7
0.0
Barbados
-0.6
0.0
Qatar
-0.5
0.0
China
-0.4
0.0
US
-0.4
0.0
Australia
-0.4
0.0
India
-0.4
0.0
Norway
0.0
0.0
Philippines
0.0
0.0
48
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
4.2
49
In terms of direct impacts, talent gaps and deficiencies could cost the global
economy:
5.5 million jobs and US$270 billion GDP (measured in 2013 prices and
exchange rates). This is compared to the baseline projected level in 2024.
Cumulative direct GDP impacts would be even larger over a ten-year period.
This is equivalent to lowering the level of global direct Travel & Tourism
employment by 4.4% compared to the baseline projected level in 2024, and
global direct Travel & Tourism GDP by 8.0% (the combined effect of lower
employment and lower productivity).
Annual average global direct Travel & Tourism employment growth to 2024
would slow from 2.0% in the baseline scenario to 1.6%, and GDP long-run
average growth from 4.2% to 3.3%.
14.1 million jobs and around US$610 billion GDP (measured in 2013 prices
and exchange rates) compared to the baseline projected level in 2024 (again
cumulative total GDP impacts would be even larger over a ten-year period).
UNITS
DIRECT
TOTAL
Millions
-5.5
-14.1
-4.4%
-4.0%
-270
-607
-8.0%
-5.5%
T&T employment
T&T GDP
In terms of total impacts, adding the indirect and induced impacts, talent gaps
and deficiencies could cost the global economy:
This is equivalent to lowering the level of global total Travel & Tourism
employment by 4.0% compared to the baseline projected level in 2024,
and global direct Travel & Tourism GDP by 5.5% (this relative impact is
lower than the direct GDP impact because indirect and induced labour
productivity is unchanged).
50
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Travel & Tourism: Country economic cost impact of talent gaps and deficiencies
(2024 versus baseline)
Total T&T employment
Impact
% Impact
2024
baseline
Impact
% Impact
2024
baseline
China
-3,773
Thailand
-20%
8,255
China
-78
Thailand
-23%
137
Thailand
-1,617
Russia
-14%
4,647
US
-76
Poland
-19%
45
India
-1,584
Taiwan
-14%
814
Italy
-43
Taiwan
-18%
36
Indonesia
-647
Poland
-14%
1,027
Russia
-36
Italy
-17%
251
US
-647
Costa Rica
-14%
355
France
-32
Russia
-17%
216
Russia
-640
Turkey
-14%
3,047
Thailand
-32
Turkey
-17%
158
Brazil
-467
Italy
-12%
3,094
UK
-28
Argentina
-16%
66
Turkey
-412
Argentina
-12%
2,219
Japan
-27
Peru
-16%
37
Mexico
-385
Malaysia
-12%
2,648
Turkey
-26
Costa Rica
-15%
10
Italy
-372
Morocco
-12%
2,429
Spain
-24
Czech Rep.
-14%
24
UK
-352
Sweden
-11%
716
Brazil
-19
Greece
-13%
53
Malaysia
-312
Peru
-11%
1,676
Mexico
-17
Oman
-12%
10
Morocco
-281
Singapore
-11%
354
Indonesia
-11
Malaysia
-12%
84
Argentina
-265
Switzerland
-11%
561
Argentina
-11
Morocco
-12%
36
Japan
-264
Saudi Arabia
-11%
599
Malaysia
-10
Sweden
-11%
87
France
-219
Oman
-10%
116
Sweden
-10
Singapore
-11%
51
Spain
-192
Bermuda
-10%
Canada
-9
Switzerland
-11%
57
Peru
-189
Austria
-9%
674
South Korea
-9
Saudi Arabia
-11%
53
Poland
-140
Czech Rep.
-9%
577
India
-9
France
-10%
310
Taiwan
-111
Bahrain
-9%
121
Poland
-8
South Korea
-10%
92
South Africa
-111
Greece
-8%
846
Germany
-8
Bermuda
-10%
South Korea
-104
UK
-8%
4,662
Australia
-8
Spain
-10%
251
Colombia
-92
UAE
-7%
696
Greece
-7
Austria
-9%
68
Canada
-86
France
-7%
3,262
Taiwan
-7
Colombia
-9%
31
Sweden
-81
Canada
-7%
1,286
Austria
-6
Bahrain
-9%
Greece
-67
Netherlands
-7%
932
Switzerland
-6
Kuwait
-9%
13
Saudi Arabia
-65
South Korea
-6%
1,624
Peru
-6
UK
-8%
375
Australia
-64
South Africa
-6%
1,774
Saudi Arabia
-6
Japan
-7%
381
Switzerland
-61
Spain
-6%
3,077
Singapore
-6
Indonesia
-7%
158
Netherlands
-61
Colombia
-6%
1,494
Netherlands
-4
UEA
-7%
51
Australia
-60
Barbados
-6%
54
Morocco
-4
Canada
-7%
136
Germany
-55
Japan
-6%
4,660
UEA
-3
Netherlands
-7%
65
Czech Rep.
-54
Indonesia
-5%
11,957
Czech Rep.
-3
Chile
-7%
39
Costa Rica
-48
Kuwait
-5%
135
South Africa
-3
South Africa
-6%
50
UAE
-48
Chile
-5%
801
Colombia
-3
Brazil
-6%
309
Singapore
-40
Qatar
-5%
121
Chile
-2
Barbados
-6%
Chile
-38
Brazil
-4%
10,684
Egypt
-2
Mexico
-6%
289
Oman
-12
China
-4%
93,039
Costa Rica
-2
Qatar
-5%
28
Bahrain
-11
Mexico
-4%
9,602
Qatar
-1
Egypt
-4%
51
Egypt
-10
US
-4%
17,560
Oman
-1
Germany
-4%
198
Kuwait
-7
Australia
-4%
1,636
Kuwait
-1
China
-4%
1,933
Qatar
-6
India
-4%
43,837
Bahrain
-1
US
-4%
2,056
Barbados
-3
Germany
-2%
2,187
Barbados
Australia
-4%
213
Bermuda
-1
Egypt
0%
3,673
Bermuda
India
-4%
239
Norway
Norway
0%
43
Phillippines
Phillippines
0%
54
Norway
Norway
0%
224
Phillippines
Phillippines
0%
5,491
Annex A
Table 4.3: Country economic cost impact of talent gaps and deficiencies
51
52
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Annex B
The two main approaches, which are then combined to produce a composite
country ranking, are:
1.Talent demand-supply balance projections; and
2.Talent enabling environment analysis.
53
The 46 countries covered by Oxford Economics Global Talent service is the same
list of countries covered in this research study. This geographically diverse list
encompasses all of the worlds major economies, including: the G8, the BRICs,
other industrialised nations, other emergers such as Mexico, UAE, South Africa,
Indonesia and Singapore, and economies where Travel & Tourism is a particularly
important sector like Barbados, Morocco, Turkey and Thailand.
The 46 countries account for 81% and 88% of direct world Travel & Tourism
employment and GDP respectively.
For each country, aggregate industry talent demand projections are taken
straight from the direct Travel & Tourism employment series from WTTCs annual
economic impact research.
The breakdown of Travel & Tourism talent demand by occupation and highest
education attainment level is based on the weighted sector matrices from Oxford
Economics Global Talent service. This is necessary because Travel & Tourism
is not an officially classified statistical industry sector on its own, but instead is a
combination of multiple industry sectors. According to published country TSAs,
the majority of Travel & Tourism direct employment is in the following industries:
hotels & catering, transportation, wholesale & retail and other personal services.
The precise weights used for each country are based on rounded average data
from eight diverse countries which published detailed TSA Travel & Tourism
employment data. This allocates an employment weight of 55% to hotels &
catering and an equal 15% weighting to the three other sectors. The occupation
and highest education attainment breakdown from each of these four sectors,
taken from Oxford Economics Global Talent service, is then weighted to produce
the breakdowns for Travel & Tourism as a whole.
Aggregate Travel & Tourism talent supply projections are created from weighted
education attainment level labour supply forecasts from Oxford Economics
Global Talent service. These forecasts encompass a range of supply dynamics
including demographics, migration, labour participation rates and shifts in
education participation and attainment.
The weights for each education attainment level are based on the education
attainment breakdown of each countrys Travel & Tourism employment / talent
demand series. To give an example, the weights for the US in 2014 are as follows:
college level (50%), high school level (47%) and below high school level (3%). The
weights for the UAE are: college level (14%), high school level (54%) and below
high school level (32%). Although the weights should not necessarily be fixed
but instead vary in line with changes in the structure of demand over time, actual
changes in demand over the period under consideration are relatively small.
Varying with weights would make minimal difference to the Travel & Tourism talent
supply projections.
54
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
The framework for assessing each countrys Travel & Tourism talent enabling
environment is based around the following pillars. These pillars are informed by
the general literature review (as opposed to any specific report which defines
characteristic of the sectors talent enabling environment), pillars used in
economy-wide talent indices and practically also by the actual data which exists.
A pillar for education is not directly included because education attainment levels
of labour supply are analysed under methodology 1.
A brief description is provided to explain the rationale for each pillar and how it relates
to a stronger or weaker Travel & Tourism enabling talent environment.
55
56
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
In an ideal situation, a single perfect variable would exist to quantify and measure
a countrys talent performance for each pillar. Instead, as is the case with the
majority of global indices, especially those without a large bespoke survey to
complement secondary data, it is necessary to:
Identify proxy variables that relate closest to these pillars;
These variables must have data available across all or most of 46 countries
covered by this study48; and
There must be an unambiguous ranking order for each variable from a
best to worst score.
The full list of proxy variables used is summarised in Table 3.1 overleaf.
As evident from the table, across the ten pillars a total of 25 variables are utilised.
The main data sources are: UN, OECD, International Labor Organisation (ILO),
World Economic Forum Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report (with several
variables taken from the indexs human resource pillar), Oxford Economics Global
Talent database, INSEAD Global Talent Competitiveness Index and the Heidrick &
Struggles Global Talent Index (compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit).
To include as broad a range of relevant variables as possible, some estimation of data was required to fill gaps. This involve using data for similar
countries where it existed or estimating based on other variables where full country data exists.
Year
Source
Additional detail
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014-2024
UN
UN
UN
UN
UN
UN
UN
2013
2014
Openness
Net migration % total population
International migrant stock % total population
Ease of hiring foreign labour
2008 - 2012
2013
2013
OECD
UN
WEF T&T Competitiveness Report
2013
2013
2014
2013
2015
2015
Talent environment
2015
2013
Recruitment competition
Wholesale & retail employment demand growth
Wholesale & retail employment demand growth
pp difference T&T employment demand growth
2014 - 2024
2014 - 2024
Latest
available
ILO
Female labour force participation rate pp difference total labour force participation rate
Latest
available
ILO
Unemployment rate
2014
ILO
Training
Extent of staff training
2013
2013
Demographics
15-24% total population
15-39% total population
15-64% total population
50-64% 15-64 population
15-24% total population pp change in share
15-39% total population pp change in share
pp change in 15-64% total population
Flexibility of labour market
Hiring and firing practices
48
57
58
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
To produce an overall Travel & Tourism talent enabling environment z-score and
rank, it is necessary to weight each of the pillars.
As is the case with most composite indices like this, there are no hard and
fast rules to inform what the value of these weights should be. This is in terms
of whether they should be equal or vary, and whether they should be the same
for each country.
The standard technical practice, and most transparent and least controversial
approach, is to uniformly apply equal weights to all pillars and all countries. This is
the approach adopted for this study.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) larger weight for openness and labour
market flexibility: A larger weight (50%) is applied to the openness pillar for
the following countries only: Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi
Arabia. This reflects the much greater importance and role of foreign labour
in these countries, especially for Travel & Tourism, and consequently the
reduced importance of domestic talent measures. A larger weight of 20%
is also applied to the labour market flexibility pillar as this is closely linked
to the openness pillar.
Gulf Cooperation Council smaller weight for openness and labour
market flexibility: Although foreign labour is more important today in GCC
countries, many of these countries have aspirations to reduce the foreign
share of the workforce. Thus it is useful to analyse their talent enabling
environment today with a zero weight for the openness and labour market
flexibility pillars. In truth the effect of foreign labour permeates across other
pillars customer service, demographics, industry relative attractiveness
and quality of general human resources so it is difficult with the available
data to make a true assessment of the talent enabling environment in GCC
countries related solely to the national workforce.
Customer service
10.0%
Demographics
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
Openness
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
Recruitment competition
10.0%
10.0%
Training
10.0%
Sum
100.0%
59
Sensitivity analysis country ranks are compared to the core equal weighting
rank results in Annex C, highlighting which country ranks change by most and
in which direction.
That said, on the basis of the literature review, and known differences in talent
markets across countries, a case can be made for applying non-equal pillar
weights and different pillar weights for different groups of countries.
60
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Annex C
Flexibility Industry
of labour relative
market
attractiviness
Recruitment
competition
Degree of
customer
orientation
15-24%
total population
15-39%
total population
15-64%
total population
50-64%
15-64
population
pp change Hiring
in 15-64% and firing
total pop- practices
ulation
High level
occupation share
T&T minus
whole
economy
Net
migration
% total
population
International
migrant
stock %
total population
Ease of
hiring
foreign
labour
Qualified
labour
inflow
Government prioritisation
of T&T
industry
T&T direct
employment
% total
economy
employment
INSEAD
Global
Talent
Competitiveness
Index
overall
score
Heidrick &
Struggles
Global
Talent
Index
overall
score
Quality
of labour
force
Talent environmet
Availability
of qualified
labour
Wholesale
& retail
wmployment
demand
growth
Wholesale
& retail
wmployment
demand
growth pp
difference
T&T employment
demand
growth
Unemployment rate
Extent
of staff
training
Local
availability
specialised
research &
training
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
20142024
2013
2014
20082012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2013
2015
2015
2015
2013
20142024
20142024
Latest
available
Latest
available
2014
2013
2013
WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report
UN
UN
UN
UN
UN
WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report
Oxford
Economics
Global
Talent
OECD
UN
WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report
INSEAD
Global
Talent
Competitiveness
Index
WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report
WTTC/
Oxford
Economics Annual
Economic
Impact
Research
INSEAD
Global
Talent
Competitiveness
Index
Heidrick &
Struggles
Global
Talent
Index
Heidrick &
Struggles
Global
Talent
Index
Heidrick &
Struggles
Global
Talent
Index
WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report
Oxford
Economics
Global
Talent
Oxford
ILO
Economics
Global
Talent
ILO
ILO
WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report
WEF T&T
Competitiveness
Report
Argentina
-2.61
0.78
0.28
-0.46
0.70
0.94
-1.09
1.08
-0.20
-0.21
1.02
-0.68
-0.61
-0.29
-0.73
-0.12
-0.09
-1.49
-0.82
-0.09
0.73
-0.50
-0.08
0.31
-1.29
-0.67
Australia
0.48
-0.20
-0.24
-0.18
-0.05
-0.65
-0.65
-0.65
0.09
0.96
-1.44
-0.02
0.35
0.20
0.81
1.53
1.37
0.66
-0.42
0.94
-0.15
0.72
0.37
0.00
0.16
0.77
Austria
1.54
-0.65
-0.62
-0.02
-0.43
-0.36
-0.20
0.46
0.08
0.35
-0.66
-0.06
0.91
0.73
0.85
0.59
0.77
1.49
0.11
1.20
0.40
0.38
0.38
-0.18
0.64
1.86
Bahrain
-0.13
0.26
1.59
1.89
1.88
1.20
0.58
-0.19
2.29
2.33
0.66
0.48
0.63
0.08
-0.26
-0.66
-1.71
-1.08
0.48
-1.01
-0.04
-0.64
-2.24
-0.05
0.25
-0.26
Barbados
-0.71
0.02
-0.16
0.62
-0.23
-0.46
0.98
-0.21
-0.14
0.13
-0.53
0.52
1.51
3.00
0.41
0.63
0.47
0.52
0.17
0.19
-0.49
1.00
0.57
0.69
0.10
-0.26
Bermuda
-0.71
0.02
-0.16
0.62
-0.23
-0.46
0.98
-0.03
-0.14
1.04
-0.53
0.52
1.51
2.65
0.41
0.47
0.52
0.17
-0.98
-1.39
2.29
0.77
2.23
0.10
-0.26
Brazil
0.63
-0.35
0.91
-0.52
0.30
0.82
1.16
-0.53
1.08
-0.21
-0.43
-1.02
0.10
-1.01
-0.41
-0.92
-0.59
-0.60
-0.75
-1.46
0.07
-0.20
0.07
-0.01
-0.05
0.01
-0.04
0.82
-0.40
-0.40
0.17
-0.56
-1.17
1.75
-0.68
0.35
0.61
-0.36
0.68
0.14
-0.95
0.96
1.47
1.48
0.66
1.15
0.24
-0.04
1.02
0.60
0.13
0.31
0.99
Chile
-0.77
0.77
0.16
0.37
0.33
0.00
-0.08
1.15
-0.14
-0.33
1.00
0.44
-0.93
-0.35
0.18
-0.03
-0.31
0.25
0.79
-1.09
-1.31
-0.35
-0.35
-0.04
-0.13
-0.06
China
-1.02
0.20
0.15
1.16
0.34
-0.57
1.19
1.01
-0.15
-0.44
1.52
-0.29
-0.72
-0.44
-0.45
-0.11
-0.81
-0.17
0.69
-1.10
-1.56
1.35
0.55
-0.32
-0.34
-0.60
Colombia
-0.07
1.29
0.45
-0.17
0.96
1.10
0.08
0.41
-0.20
0.43
0.42
-1.60
-0.57
-0.77
-1.40
-0.69
-0.68
-1.08
-0.45
-1.50
-1.22
0.05
-0.19
0.70
-1.88
-0.98
Costa Rica
0.07
1.22
0.64
0.52
0.82
0.76
1.00
1.30
0.07
-0.01
-0.47
0.29
0.73
0.32
-0.22
0.07
-0.03
-0.02
0.60
-0.90
0.34
-0.45
-0.66
0.00
0.13
0.23
Czech Rep.
-0.57
-1.00
-0.30
0.12
-0.25
-0.83
-0.44
-0.44
0.03
-0.24
-0.50
-1.53
-0.56
-0.57
0.53
0.03
0.05
0.25
-0.38
0.78
-0.13
-0.06
0.06
0.10
-0.43
0.40
Egypt
-0.99
1.41
0.55
-0.81
1.22
1.49
-0.58
2.48
-0.20
-0.43
-1.13
-2.73
0.63
0.47
-2.10
-1.06
-1.31
-0.91
-1.55
-1.06
-0.73
-2.27
-1.91
0.63
-2.74
-1.56
France
-0.62
-0.52
-0.68
-0.74
-0.42
-0.25
-1.14
-0.18
-0.09
0.14
-1.30
-0.60
0.57
0.24
0.61
1.13
1.06
1.08
-1.19
0.69
0.12
0.13
0.55
0.86
-0.22
0.89
0.75
-1.11
-0.90
-0.28
-0.84
-0.55
-0.81
-0.88
-0.06
0.16
-0.33
0.21
-1.21
-0.96
0.77
1.32
1.36
1.16
-0.14
0.18
-1.13
-0.37
-0.42
-0.15
0.61
1.86
Greece
-1.06
-1.30
-0.70
-0.35
-0.39
-0.07
-0.46
0.53
-0.05
0.01
0.14
-2.49
-0.06
2.32
-0.81
-0.17
-0.40
0.00
0.42
-0.77
-1.08
-0.53
0.01
3.00
-2.36
-1.40
India
-0.66
1.52
0.61
-0.25
1.17
1.62
0.48
1.14
-0.24
-0.42
-1.22
0.02
-1.02
0.41
-1.87
-0.54
0.39
-0.75
-1.86
-1.81
-1.77
0.25
-0.04
1.10
-0.61
-0.65
Indonesia
-0.84
0.98
0.44
-0.18
1.11
1.99
0.86
1.32
-0.37
-0.44
-0.06
-0.37
-0.82
-0.53
-1.91
-1.80
-1.63
-2.33
-0.88
-0.79
-0.85
0.10
-0.78
-0.01
-0.16
-0.62
Italy
-0.49
-1.30
-0.93
-0.54
-0.53
0.00
-1.02
-0.46
0.05
0.03
0.53
-2.30
-0.95
0.47
-0.02
0.08
-0.22
0.00
0.23
0.56
0.42
-0.96
-0.04
1.20
-2.59
0.04
Japan
2.45
-1.39
-0.99
-1.20
-0.58
-0.44
-0.98
-0.71
-0.24
-0.35
-1.27
-0.33
-0.09
-0.75
0.57
0.07
0.30
0.75
-0.63
1.22
-0.09
-0.15
-0.18
-0.39
0.84
0.99
Kuwait
-0.69
0.39
1.72
1.19
2.23
0.87
-0.04
-0.87
2.02
2.61
0.83
-0.48
-3.00
-1.05
-0.96
-0.59
-0.62
-0.66
-0.05
1.77
2.64
0.64
-1.10
-0.63
-1.70
-1.53
Canada
Germany
Malaysia
0.75
1.67
0.85
0.33
1.17
0.89
1.28
0.03
0.05
-0.02
0.75
0.25
0.77
1.30
-0.06
-0.66
-0.65
-0.75
0.75
-0.21
0.46
-0.22
-0.81
-0.48
0.79
0.85
Mexico
-0.29
1.49
0.49
-0.34
1.21
1.69
-0.51
1.34
-0.48
-0.40
0.08
-0.72
0.24
1.13
-1.36
-0.54
-0.64
-0.41
-0.51
-1.59
-1.01
-0.63
-0.84
-0.20
-0.96
-0.28
Morocco
-0.73
1.44
0.62
-0.01
1.07
0.13
0.41
2.98
-0.18
-0.44
0.06
-0.75
1.25
1.74
-2.14
-1.64
-1.56
-1.67
-0.72
-1.18
-0.70
-2.06
-1.65
0.52
-1.20
-0.64
Netherlands
0.55
-0.58
-0.75
-0.34
-0.61
-0.43
-0.79
-0.89
-0.03
0.15
1.27
0.60
-0.52
1.32
1.16
1.27
1.34
1.08
0.72
0.52
0.15
0.74
0.37
0.26
0.76
1.91
Norway
0.26
-0.24
-0.46
-0.38
-0.16
-0.15
-1.00
-0.35
0.38
0.25
0.80
0.64
-0.70
0.04
0.92
1.57
1.36
0.66
0.26
-0.08
-1.38
0.26
0.79
-0.43
0.73
0.95
Oman
0.38
2.67
2.85
1.50
2.68
0.63
0.44
0.25
0.47
1.11
-1.36
0.48
0.93
-0.19
-0.26
-0.66
-1.71
-1.08
-1.15
-1.48
0.04
1.56
-1.48
0.04
-0.01
-1.26
-0.26
1.57
0.60
-0.42
1.26
1.53
-0.36
1.12
-0.44
-0.43
-0.30
-0.41
-0.26
-0.72
-1.16
-1.00
-1.15
-0.83
-0.91
0.20
1.32
-1.38
-1.75
-0.16
-1.47
-1.20
0.42
1.91
0.57
-1.00
1.42
1.68
-0.39
1.13
-0.26
-0.43
-1.25
-1.14
0.18
-0.38
-1.48
-0.79
-0.16
-0.58
-1.83
-1.33
-1.02
-0.26
0.43
0.14
0.04
-0.68
-0.27
-0.55
-0.03
0.61
-0.43
-1.82
-0.27
0.02
-0.11
-0.36
-0.69
-2.07
-1.96
-0.81
0.14
-0.07
0.03
-0.41
-0.79
-0.01
0.77
-0.05
-0.58
0.26
-0.76
0.10
Qatar
1.33
-0.12
2.85
3.00
2.56
0.66
1.73
0.69
3.00
3.00
1.88
0.48
-0.16
-1.03
0.06
0.32
0.19
0.22
1.34
1.87
2.17
-0.18
0.23
0.62
0.67
0.27
Russia
-2.49
-0.72
-0.05
0.75
-0.47
-0.98
0.04
-1.23
0.10
-0.05
-1.38
-2.18
-1.93
-1.17
-0.61
-0.45
-0.34
-0.41
-1.80
1.49
1.16
-0.09
-3.00
-0.93
-1.62
-1.16
Saudi Arabia
0.09
0.64
0.97
0.27
1.67
2.17
1.56
1.40
0.27
1.15
0.77
0.48
-0.62
-0.98
-0.26
-0.66
-1.71
-1.08
0.85
-1.78
-0.12
1.06
0.51
0.00
-0.04
-0.04
Singapore
0.84
0.17
0.03
1.34
-0.19
-1.19
2.04
-1.21
0.96
1.73
0.97
0.87
1.09
0.18
1.32
-1.53
1.52
1.49
1.40
0.37
0.45
-2.58
-2.82
-0.09
0.90
0.88
-0.69
1.46
0.75
-0.44
1.27
1.34
-1.19
2.29
0.03
-0.21
-1.88
-0.56
0.53
0.32
-0.77
-0.91
-0.58
-0.08
-2.79
0.00
0.08
0.60
0.07
-0.68
0.22
-0.51
0.09
Peru
Phillippines
Poland
South Africa
South Korea
1.04
-0.06
-0.12
1.19
-0.15
-1.39
-0.41
-1.01
-0.23
-0.32
-1.19
0.37
-0.45
-0.67
0.30
0.45
0.36
0.75
-0.26
1.28
0.30
-0.17
0.34
3.00
-0.25
-0.75
-1.45
-0.58
-0.12
-0.17
0.10
-0.86
-0.31
0.03
0.26
0.58
-1.45
1.05
0.59
0.02
0.23
0.14
0.08
0.57
-0.73
-1.24
-0.05
-0.22
-0.49
-2.06
0.16
Sweden
1.44
-0.42
-0.60
-0.81
-0.25
-0.16
-0.95
-0.05
0.19
0.36
0.91
0.56
-0.36
-0.04
1.24
1.69
1.58
1.08
0.51
0.96
1.00
0.15
0.27
3.00
0.82
1.40
Switzerland
1.61
-0.71
-0.51
0.04
-0.32
-0.24
2.01
-0.31
0.40
1.02
1.33
0.91
0.61
-0.42
1.36
1.42
1.46
1.49
1.43
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.75
0.33
0.96
2.34
Taiwan
1.26
-0.06
-0.12
1.19
-0.15
-1.39
0.13
-0.75
-0.03
-0.26
-1.41
0.37
0.06
-0.61
0.30
0.73
0.53
1.41
-0.29
0.26
0.62
0.91
0.31
-0.47
0.07
0.64
Thailand
0.62
-0.09
-0.03
1.03
0.05
-0.06
1.12
0.80
-0.08
-0.16
0.11
-0.17
0.68
0.88
-1.44
-0.88
-0.65
-1.00
0.05
0.72
2.36
-0.66
0.55
-0.34
-0.46
-0.82
Turkey
0.62
0.98
0.50
0.01
0.96
1.23
1.05
-0.02
0.04
-0.32
-0.55
-1.26
0.33
-0.74
-1.24
-0.78
-0.83
-0.50
-0.11
-1.51
0.15
1.25
0.22
-0.76
-0.90
-1.05
UAE
0.64
-0.02
3.00
3.00
3.00
0.82
1.80
0.26
3.00
3.00
1.96
0.72
1.20
0.66
0.65
0.84
0.65
0.72
1.31
-0.39
0.16
-0.68
-2.46
-0.33
0.49
0.55
UK
0.44
-0.53
-0.54
-0.51
-0.23
0.07
1.31
-0.67
0.12
0.18
0.61
0.79
0.18
0.65
1.12
1.26
0.91
1.41
1.09
0.00
-0.40
0.51
0.39
0.16
0.58
1.54
US
0.66
-0.03
-0.34
-0.19
-0.35
-0.56
1.89
-0.48
0.09
0.28
0.22
0.75
-0.43
-0.12
1.04
2.85
1.71
2.24
1.06
0.36
0.05
0.67
0.42
0.10
0.55
1.16
Spain
61
62
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
Annex D
Sensitivity analysis 1:
Non-equal pillar weights
Non-equal pillar weights: Larger weights are applied to the following pillars
on the basis of their implied relative importance from the literature review:
demographics, industry relative attractiveness, openness and recruitment
competition.
Gulf Cooperation Council smaller weight for openness and labour market
flexibility: Although foreign labour is more important today in GCC countries,
many of these countries have aspirations to reduce the foreign share of the
workforce. Thus it is useful to analyse their talent enabling environment today with
a zero weight for the openness and labour market flexibility pillars. In truth the effect
of foreign labour permeates across other pillars customer service, demographics,
industry relative attractiveness and quality of general human resources so it is
difficult with the available data to make a true assessment of the talent enabling
environment in GCC countries related solely to the national workforce.
Sensivity analysis 2:
GCG larger weight openness
and labour market flexibility
Sensivity analysis 3:
GCC smaller weight openness
and labour market flexibility
Customer service
10.0%
6.7%
3.8%
12.5%
Demographics
10.0%
15.0%
3.8%
12.5%
10.0%
6.7%
20.0%
0.0%
10.0%
15.0%
3.8%
12.5%
Openness
10.0%
15.0%
50.0%
0.0%
10.0%
6.7%
3.8%
12.5%
10.0%
6.7%
3.8%
12.5%
Recruitment competition
10.0%
15.0%
3.8%
12.5%
10.0%
6.7%
3.8%
12.5%
Training
10.0%
6.7%
3.8%
12.5%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Sum
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) larger weight for openness and labour
market flexibility: A larger weight (50%) is applied to the openness pillar for
the following countries only: Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi
Arabia. This reflects the much greater importance and role of foreign labour in
these countries, especially for the travel & Tourism industry, and consequently
the reduced importance of domestic talent measures. A larger weight of 20%
is also applied to the labour market flexibility pillar as this is closely linked to the
openness pillar.
63
Sensivity analysis 1:
Non-equal weights
Rank
change
Qatar
Qatar
UAE
UAE
Switzerland
Switzerland
Singapore
Malaysia
Malaysia
Thailand
US
Singapore
-2
Austria
Costa Rica
Sweden
Sweden
UK
Saudi Arabia
10
Thailand
10
Austria
11
Costa Rica
11
Morocco
12
Canada
12
US
13
Bermuda
13
Bahrain
14
Barbados
14
South Africa
15
Netherlands
15
Kuwait
19
16
Saudi Arabia
16
Oman
17
Bahrain
17
Peru
18
Morocco
18
UK
-9
19
South Africa
19
Netherlands
-4
20
Oman
20
Canada
-8
21
Taiwan
21
Barbados
-7
22
Australia
22
Bermuda
-9
23
Norway
23
China
24
China
24
Chile
25
Japan
25
Mexico
26
Peru
26
Argentina
17
27
Turkey
27
Indonesia
28
Chile
28
Brazil
29
Mexico
29
Turkey
-2
30
South Korea
30
Taiwan
-9
31
France
31
Philippines
32
Philippines
32
Norway
33
Spain
33
Australia
34
Kuwait
34
Egypt
35
Brazil
35
India
36
Indonesia
36
South Korea
-6
37
India
37
France
-6
38
Germany
38
Colombia
39
Czech Republic
39
Argentina
-14
40
Greece
40
Japan
41
Poland
41
Spain
-8
42
Colombia
42
Czech Republic
-3
43
Argentina
43
Greece
-3
44
Italy
44
Italy
45
Egypt
45
Germany
46
Russia
46
Russia
-3
7
-6
4
5
1
-9
-11
11
2
0
-7
0
64
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
65
Sensivity analysis 2:
weight openness and labour
market flexibility
Rank
change
Sensivity analysis 3:
GCC smaller weight openness
and labour market flexibility
Rank
change
Qatar
Qatar
-1
UAE
Austria
Switzerland
Switzerland
Switzerland
Saudi Arabia
12
Singapore
Sweden
Singapore
-1
Malaysia
UAE
US
Bahrain
11
US
Malaysia
Austria
Malaysia
-2
Austria
South Africa
Sweden
Sweden
Sweden
Costa Rica
UK
US
-3
UK
Singapore
-5
10
Thailand
10
Austria
-3
10
Thailand
10
Thailand
11
Costa Rica
11
Costa Rica
11
Costa Rica
11
Netherlands
12
Canada
12
UK
-3
12
Canada
12
US
13
Bermuda
13
Canada
-1
13
Bermuda
13
Bermuda
-1
14
Barbados
14
Kuwait
20
14
Barbados
14
Barbados
20
15
Netherlands
15
Thailand
-5
15
Netherlands
15
UK
-5
16
Saudi Arabia
16
Netherlands
-1
16
Saudi Arabia
16
Canada
-1
17
Bahrain
17
Barbados
-3
17
Bahrain
17
Japan
-3
18
Morocco
Bermuda
-5
18
Morocco
18
Australia
19
South Africa
19
Taiwan
19
South Africa
19
Taiwan
20
Oman
20
South Africa
-1
20
Oman
20
Morocco
-2
21
Taiwan
21
Morocco
-3
21
Taiwan
21
Oman
-1
22
Australia
22
Turkey
22
Australia
22
France
23
Norway
-1
23
Norway
23
Peru
Qatar
UAE
UAE
Qatar
Switzerland
Singapore
Malaysia
6
7
18
23
Australia
4
-3
-1
12
0
4
-3
4
2
24
China
24
Norway
-1
-5
25
Japan
25
Bahrain
-8
-3
26
Peru
26
Phillippines
27
Turkey
27
Saudi Arabia
-11
28
Chile
28
South Korea
29
Mexico
29
Mexico
30
South Korea
30
Brazil
-2
31
France
31
Spain
China
-8
32
Philippines
32
Turkey
-5
33
South Korea
-3
33
Spain
33
Germany
34
Spain
-1
34
Kuwait
34
Chile
Brazil
35
Poland
35
Brazil
35
Czech Republic
Indonesia
36
Czech Republic
36
Indonesia
36
Greece
37
India
37
Brazil
-2
37
India
37
India
38
Germany
38
Argentina
38
Germany
38
Poland
39
Czech Republic
39
Japan
-14
39
Czech Republic
39
Egypt
40
Greece
40
Colombia
40
Greece
40
China
-16
41
Poland
41
Indonesia
-5
41
Poland
41
Italy
42
Colombia
42
Indonesia
-6
-9
24
China
24
Peru
25
Japan
25
Oman
26
Peru
26
Norway
27
Turkey
27
Chile
28
Chile
28
France
29
Mexico
29
Phillippines
30
South Korea
30
India
31
France
31
Mexico
32
Philippines
32
33
Spain
34
Kuwait
35
36
3
3
7
5
-6
42
Colombia
42
Italy
43
Argentina
43
Germany
-5
43
Argentina
43
Kuwait
44
Italy
44
Greece
-4
44
Italy
44
Argentina
-1
45
Egypt
45
Egypt
45
Egypt
45
Colombia
-3
46
Russia
46
Russia
46
Russia
46
Russia
66
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector
67
68
Global Talent Trends and Issues for the Travel & Tourism Sector