PROBLEM SET of DISCRETE PDF

SPRING SEMESTER 2016

ME 201/ES 202 - ENGINEERING STATISTICS
1. Approximately 10% of the glass bottles coming off a production line have serious
flaws in the glass. If ten bottles are randomly selected, find the probability that
more than one of them has serious flaws.
Answer:

0.2639

2. The probability is 0.10 that ball bearings in a machine component will fail under
certain adverse conditions of load and temperature. If a component containing
eleven ball bearings must have a least eight of them functioning to operate under
the adverse conditions, what is the probability that it will break down?
Answer:

0.0185

3. Doomsday Airlines (Come Take the Flight of Your Lif) has two dilapidated airplanes, one with two engines, and the other with four. Each plane will land safely
only if at least half of its engines are working. Each engine on each aircraft operates
independently and each has probability p = 0.4 of failing. Assuming you wish to
maximize your survival probability, which plane should you fly on?
Answer: The probability that a two engine plane lands safely is 0.84. The probability that a four engine plane lands safely is 0.8208. Therefore we will better take
a two engine plane.
4. The gunner on a small assault boat fires six missiles at an attacking plane. Each
has a 20% chance of being on-target. If two or more of the shells find their mark,
the plane will crash. At the same time, the pilot of the plane fires ten air-to-surface
rockets, each of which has a 5% chance of critically disabling the boat. Would you
rather be on the plane or the boat?
Answer: The probability that plane will crash is 0.3446 and the probability that
boat will cripple is 0.4013. Therefore we will better on the plane.
5. Use the expansion of (x + y)n to verify that the binomial probabilities sum to 1;
that is,
n  
X
n k
p (1 p)nk = 1.
k
k=0
6. Repair calls for central air conditioners fall into three general categories: coolant
leakage, compressor failure, and electrical malfunction. Experience has shown that
the probabilities associated with the three are 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, respectively. Suppose that a dispatcher has logged in ten service requests for tomorrow morning.
Calculate the probability that three of those ten will involve coolant leakage and
five will be compressor failures.
1

Answer:

0.031

7. Lazy is studying for midterm exam covering the probability theory that will consist
of five questions selected at random from a list of ten the professor has handed out
to the class in advance. Lazy would like to avoid work on all ten questions but still
be reasonably assured of getting a fairly good grade. Specifically, he/she wants to
have at least an 85% chance of getting at least four of the five questions right. Will
it be sufficient if he/she studies eight of the ten questions?
Answer: No. With this much preparation his chance of getting the required result
is only 73.73%.
8. Each year GIKI awards five merit-based scholarships to members of the entering
freshman class who have exceptional entry test scores. The initial pool of applicants
for the upcoming academic year has been reduced to a short list of eight men and
ten women, all of whom seem equally deserving. If the awards are made at random
from among the eighteen finalists, what are the chances that both men and women
will be represented?
Answer:

0.964

9. A display case contains thirty-five gems, of which ten are real diamonds and twentyfive are fake diamonds. A burglar removes four gems at random, one at a time and
without replacement. What is the probability that the last gem he steals is the
second real diamond in the set of four?
Answer:

0.129

10. Show directly that the set of probabilities associated with the hypergeometric distribution sum to 1. Hint: Expand the identity (1 + x)N = (1 + x)r (1 + x)N r and
equate coefficients.
11. Suppose a fair coin is tossed until a head comes up for the first time. What are the
chances of that happening on an odd-numbered toss?
Answer:

2
3

12. Acme Industries typically produces three electric power generators a day; some
pass the company?s quality-control inspection on their first try and are ready to be
shipped; others need to be retooled. The probability of a generator needing further
work is 0.05. If a generator is ready to ship, the firm earns a profit of $10,000. If
it needs to be retooled, it ultimately costs the firm $2,000. Let X be the random
variable quantifying the company?s daily profit. Find P r(X = k) and Acmes average profit per day.
Answer:

X
$-6000
Pr(X=x) 0.000125

$6000
0.007125

$18000
$30000
; E(X) = $28200
0.135375 0.857375

13. A fair coin is tossed three times. Let X be the number of heads in the tosses minus
the number of tails. Find the probability distribution of X.
2

Answer:

X
-3
Pr(X=x) 18

-1

3
8

3
8

1
8

14. Suppose a particle moves along the x-axis beginning at 0. It moves one integer step
to the left or right with equal probability.
(a) What is the pmf of its position after four steps?
(b) How would the pmf be affected if the particle was twice as likely to move to
the right as to the left?.
Answer:
(a)

X
Pr(X=x)

-4

-2

1
16

4
16

6
16

4
16

1
16

(b)

X
Pr(X=x)

-4

-2

1
81

8
81

24
81

32
81

16
81

15. Astronomers estimate that as many as one hundred billion stars in the MilkyWay
galaxy are encircled by planets. If so, we may have a plethora of cosmic neighbors.
Let p denote the probability that any such solar system contains intelligent life.
How small can p be and still give a fifty-fifty chance that we are not alone?
Answer:

6.9 1012

16. In a new fiber-optic communication system, transmission errors occur at the rate of
1.5 per ten seconds. What is the probability that more than two errors will occur
during the next half-minute?
Answer:

0.826

17. Fifty spotlights have just been installed in an outdoor security system. According
to the manufacturers specifications, these particular lights are expected to burn
out at the rate of 1.1 per one hundred hours. What is the expected number of
bulbs that will fail to last for at least seventy-five hours?
Answer:

28

18. Find P r(X = 4) if the random variable X has a Poisson distribution such that
P r(X = 1) = P r(X = 2).
Answer:

= 2,

P r(X = 4) = 0.0902

19. Let X be a Poisson random variable with parameter . Show that the probability
that X is even is 12 (1 + e2 ).
20. Let X and Y be independent Poisson random variables with parameters and ,
respectively. Prove that X +Y is also Poisson with parameter + .