Overview

1.

Planning Your Campaign

2.

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

3.

Understanding Past Election Results & Trends

4.

Calculating Your Win Number

5.

Selecting Target Groups

6.

Knowing the Issues that Matter

7.

Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies

8.

Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan

Our Starting Premise There are three finite resources in every campaign

People

Time

Money

The best way to combat these limitations is through

careful planning and focusing your resources on target groups
of likely voters that you can win over and turn out to the polls.

Campaign Planning at a Glance

October to December





January to May

Assembling your campaign team

Analyzing your district & identifying your
target groups
Fundraising

Fine-tuning your campaign plan & budget

Designing your campaign materials
Gathering & training your petitioning team

June to Mid-July

Petitioning Time

Mid-July to Early August

Fighting Challenges to Petitions

August to Early September 09

Campaigning for Primary Election

September to November 09

Campaigning for General Election




Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

** Most public officials are elected by a small, unique set of voters **
Analysis of Hypothetical Council District 99
Total Population: 165,000

Total Voters: 80,000

Total Democratic
Voters: 60,000

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

** Most public officials are elected by a small, unique set of voters **
Analysis of Hypothetical Council District 99
Total Democratic Voters: 60,000

Prime Democratic
Voters: 18,000

Likely Voters for City

Council Race: 12,000
( About 1 in 14 people
living in district)

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Voter Lists

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Voter Lists
Key considerations

Get data in a format that is easy to work with & manipulate

Get lists that are filtered by voter history (i.e. Prime, Double
Prime, Triple Prime)

Should include gender and age

Ethnicity and phone numbers can be added

Use this data to generate statistics about who your prime

voters are and where they live

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Voter Lists
Gender Analysis

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Voter Lists
Gender Breakdown by Age
Age

Male Prime

Female Prime

Male %

Female %

18-29

384

646

37%

63%

30-44

986

1,949

34%

66%

45-59

2,696

3,665

42%

58%

60-74

2,193

3,102

41%

59%

75+

941

1,438

40%

60%

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Voter Lists
Age Analysis

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Voter Lists
Race/Ethnic Analysis

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Voter Lists
Key Findings from Prime Voter Analysis

Large female vote, particularly concentrated under age 45

Youth vote appears minimal

Over half of prime voters (52%) are of family age

Ethnically diverse with a number of potential subgroups

including African-American, Caribbean, Latino, South Asian
and Jewish voters

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Divided into 100 Election Districts

About 600 registered
Democrats in each

Roughly 3-5 city
blocks in size

One voting booth
per election
district

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Concentration of Prime Voters

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Concentration of African-American & Caribbean Voters

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Concentration of Prime Caucasian & Jewish Voters

Identifying & Analyzing Likely Voters

Geographical Analysis of Council District 99
Concentration of Hispanic Voters

Understanding Past Election Results & Trends

Past Primary Turnout
Votes Cast

Enrollment

Turnout

2001

11,160

62,000

18%

2002

4,880

61,000

8%

2003

2,400

60,000

4%

2004

4,410

63,000

7%

2005

7,440

62,000

12%

2006

9,075

60,500

15%

2007

2,360

59,000

4%

2008

3,750

62,500

6%

Understanding Past Election Results & Trends

Trends in Primary Turnout & Enrollment

Understanding Past Election Results & Trends

2009 Projections for Council District 99
Expected Enrollment: 64,000
Expected Turnout: 18%
Expected Voters: 11,520
Win Numbers
2 candidates: 6,106 (53%)
3 candidates: 4,147 (36%)
4 candidates: 3,226 (28%)
5 candidates: 2,650 (23%)

Understanding Past Election Results & Trends

Past Election Results
Votes Received by Incumbent in 2001

Understanding Past Election Results & Trends

Past Election Results
Votes Received by Incumbent in 2005

Understanding Past Election Results & Trends

Past Election Results
Fernando Ferrer Votes in 2005 Mayoral Primary

Understanding Past Election Results & Trends

Past Election Results
Key Findings from Analysis

Incumbent support concentrated in a handful of election

districts

African-American support for incumbent is feeble and not a

guarantee for incumbent

Ferrer campaign provides possible model to winning district

with multi-ethnic coalition of voters

Selecting Target Groups

Sample Variables to Consider
Demographic
 Age
 Gender
 Families
 Race/Ethnicity
 Religion
Geographic
 Neighborhood
 Long-time Residents

Socio-Economic
 Income level
 Union membership
 Rent vs. Own
 Public housing residents

Selecting Target Groups

Translating Target Groups into Vote Projections
# Prime Voters in Group x Expected Support = Vote Projection
Target Group

Prime Voters

Expected Support

Votes

1. Hispanic Community

3,120

60%

1,872

2. Minority Families

2,000

40%

800

3. Caribbean Community

1,600

40%

640

4. Women Under 45

2,595

40%

1,038

5. Neighborhood X

2,800

40%

1,120

Combined Total

5,470

Minus Overlap

- 1,094
4,376

Knowing the Issues that Matter

My Neighborhood Statistics

http://gis.nyc.gov/ops/mmr/address.jsp
Detailed 311 Reports

http://www.nyc.gov/html/doitt/html/about/about_311_local_law.shtml
Community Board District Profiles

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/lucds/cdstart.shtml

Lists of Selected Facilities and Program Sites (including schools, parks,
public safety, health, mental health and other social service facilities)

Also request the Community Boards annual Needs Statement, which is
available from the Community Board or Dept of City Planning

Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies

Key Tips

Plan your strategies based on what makes logical sense for each
target groups

Reach out to target groups with information on the issues they care
about

During your voter contacts, always try to collect information to
append your voter file most importantly, flag your die-hard
supporters, the persuadable voters and your opponents die-hard
supporters

Overlap a variety of tactics including door-to-door outreach, direct
mail and phone calls to maximize the impact of each message.

Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies

Example of a Well-Planned, Themed Outreach Effort
1. Direct mail piece on day-care and early childhood education sent
to your target groups of women under 45 and minority families

Details your positions and demonstrates your commitment to the issue

Includes high-quality photos of you and your family that readers
can relate to

References a specific website where readers can go to learn more
2. Website landing page that is specific to day-care and early
childhood education and gathers information about visitors (includes
email, phone number, etc)

Planning Your Messages & Outreach Strategies

Example of a Well-Planned, Themed Outreach Effort
3. Phone calls to voters asking them if they received your mailing and
telling them that youll be in front of the local schools meeting with
parents all week if theyd like to talk more.
4. On-the-street voter outreach in front of the local schools at the
start and end of the day when parents are dropping off and picking up
their kids.
5. Letter-to-the-editor campaign targeted a local papers that stresses
the need to improve day-care and early childhood education in your
community and proposed a set of specific changes.

Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan

Review of what weve done
1.

Identified & Analyzed Likely Voters

2.

Looked at Past Election Results & Trends

3.

Calculated a Win Number

4.

Selected Target Groups & Created Vote Projections

5.

Analyzed the Issues & Created Outreach Strategies

Next Step


Calculating the cost of outreach strategies and charting

out the steps on your campaign calendar

Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan

Questions for Consideration when Budgeting

Are you hiring staff or paying consultants to manage your dayto-day operations?

How much direct mail are you planning?

Does your audience of prime voters necessitate high-tech web
presence?

Do you have a good bookkeeper and treasurer to manage your
accounting books and prepare your campaign finance reports?

Are you accounting for shipping fees on your print materials?

Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan

Budget Breakdown
Campaign Expenditures by Category
9%

27%

19%

3%
29%
Admin & Campaign Management
Legal Fees
Field Organization

13%
Research
Direct Mail & Communications
Fundraising

Creating your Budget & Campaign Plan

Our Contact Information:

Grassroots Initiative
Address:

224 W. 4th Street NY, NY 10014

Phone:

212.400.0531

Email:

info@gograssroots.org

Website:

www.gograssroots.org