IntegrationofClimateChangeConsiderationsin

HydropowerDevelopmentsAdaptationsandPolicy
Recommendation

FinalReport

Submittedto:

GovernmentofNepal
MinistryofEnvironment,ScienceandTechnology
Kathmandu,Nepal

Submittedby:

TheSocietyofHydrologistsandMeteorologists(SOHAM)
Nepal

Kathmandu,Nepal

Email:soham_npl@yahoo.com;info@soham.org.np

June 2012

Acknowledgement
HydropowerdevelopmentofNepalintheContextofClimateChangeisanattempttoshowimpactsof
climatechangeononeoftheimportantsectorofwaterresource.
Waterisakeyelementtohydropowerdevelopment.Climatechangeimpactsonitneedtobehandled
carefullyandskillfully.Thereportisintendedtopresentscenariooftheimpactsofclimatechangeon
riverflowswhichisthoughchallengingbecausewateravailability,qualityofstreamflowissensitiveto
temperatureandprecipitation.
SouthAsiaisparticularlymorevulnerabletoitsimpactsandsomeoftheimpactsalreadyseeninNepal
in the form of drought, downstream flooding, intense rainfall, shifting of monsoon period. Nepal is
sufferingfromeithertoomuchwaterortoolittlewatertosustainlifeduetoclimatechange.
Climate change impacts on hydropower development may be addressed by focusing on research,
optimumobservationnetwork,strongdatabase,adaptationandmitigationtechniques.Thisreportisan
efforttobringsomeimportantissuesofclimatechangetoreadersandbuildingastrategytocopewith
itsimpacts.
IwouldliketoexpresswarmappreciationandthankstoMrs.KalpanaDhamala,Ex.Minister,Ministryof
ScienceandTechnology,andMr.SureshMarahatta,advisortotheMinister.Iwouldalsoliketothankto
Secretary, Ministry of Science and Technology, Director General, Department of Hydrology and
MeteorologyandtoallexecutivemembersofSOHAMNepal

SocietyofHydrologistsandMeteorologists,Nepal
(SOHAMNepal)
Kathmandu
June,2012

ResearchTeam

Mr.JagatKumarBhusal:TeamLeaderoftheStudy
Mr.DeepakPaudel

Mr.SantoshRegmi

Mrs.IndiralKandel

Mr.BinodParajuli

ii

Executive Summary
The Himalayan glaciers hold the largest store of fresh water outside the Polar Ice Caps. Many of the
rivers on the Asian continent originate in the Himalayas. Steady glacial melt has fed these rivers,
regulating their flow throughout the annual hydrological cycle. But many of these glaciers are rapidly
melting,causingyetmorevolatilityintheflowlevelsofriversinAsia.
Nepalcontainsabouttwopercentoftheworldswaterresources.Therearemorethan6000riversin
Nepaloutofwhichabout54riversareeachlongerthan150kilometresand964riversareeachlonger
than10kilometres(DHM,1998)Theseriverintotalpossesanappreciableofhydroelectricitywhichis
morethan83thousand (Shrestha,H M).Powerofwaterbeen usedsinceancienttimes togrindflour
andperformothertasks.In1878theworld'sfirsthydroelectricpowerschemewasdevelopedatCrag
side in Northumberland of England by William George Armstrong. The first hydropower electricity
project (Pharping hydroporoject) of 500kilowatt capacity. was installed in 1911 in Nepal. Till date,
totalinstalledcapacityis700MWoutofwhich174MWfallunderprivatesectors.Karnali,Chisapani
locationisidentifiedforaMultipurposeProjectwithaninstalledcapacityof10,800MW.
Deglaciation in the Himalaya will also cause rapid growth of glacial lakes, which will increase the
likelihood of glacial lake outburst floods. The deglaciation pattern will deliver water to the rivers in
sporadic bursts rather than a steady stream of flow. These devastating and often unexpected floods
couldwreakhavoconhydroelectricinfrastructure.Glacialmeltwillcauseinitialoverallincreasedflow
for the rivers originating in the Himalaya. However, highly variable river flow is not optimal for
hydropower,soeventhoughdeglaciationwillincreasetheflowsatcertainperiodsoftime,itsvariability
and unpredictability make hydropower more vulnerable on rivers. Some smaller rivers are fed
exclusively by glacial melt, and could dry up in as few as 50 years. This naturally would affect
downstreamhydropower,nottomentionthewatersupplyofcommunitiesalongsuchrivers.
Various scientific studies results and information from multiple sources that are focused on climate
change vulnerability to water resource, especial focus on hydropower are synthesized and integrated.
Streamflowisanimportantparameterofahydroelectricgenerationbywhichinstalledcapacityand
energyoutputisdetermined.Climatechangewhichhasimpactedprecipitationpatterns,glacialmelting
hasbeenalteringthestreamflowsandalsohaveimpactedonseasonalvariationandannualfluctuation
in flows. Runofriver type of hydroelectric project is likely to be affected because they lack storage
facilitiestobufferfluctuationsinwaterflow.Thestoragetypepartiallyblocksthewaterflowofariver
and store water upstream of the dam to create a reservoir. Stored water in the reservoir is used to
produceelectricityatdesiredtime.
To understand how climate change will affect hydropower production, it is necessary to consider the
ways in which characteristics of hydropower facilities affect their vulnerability to climate change.
iii

Changesintemperatureandchangesinprecipitationpatternshaveprofoundeffectsonriversystems.
Evaporation, discharge, temporal variability, and glacial melt impact the vulnerability of certain
hydropower facilities and reservoir characteristics. Planned projects should take reservoir shape into
considerationintheirdesigninordertoreduceevaporationandmaximizepowerpotential(McJannetet
al,2008)..Reservoirsizeisimportanttoevaporationaswell,assmallerreservoirswillbemoreatriskto
losinggreaterproportionsoftheirvolume.
Theinherentcharacteristicofclimateisthatitchangeswithtime.Thedegreeofclimatevariabilitythat
isdescribed bythedifferencesbetweenlongtermstatisticsofmeteorologicalelementscalculatedfor
differentperiodsisthemeasureofclimatechange.
Thelastglaciation,whichoccurredatabout10000calendaryearsbeforepresent.Theclimateduring
the Holocene period appeared relatively stable but there were significant climate fluctuations during
thisperiod(e.g.Bondetal.1997;Mayewskietal.1997;deMenocaletal.2000).Howeverthesignificant
causeofthe warmingtrendisseenastheGreenhouseEffect awellunderstoodphenomenonthat
was discovered in 1824 and first measured in 1859 (IPCC Assessment Report 4, 2007).The major greenhouse
gases are water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N20). Some
concentrationsofGHGsintheatmospherearenaturalbuthumanactivityisproducingmoreandmore
ofthesegaseseachyear.Elevenofthe12yearsfrom1995to2006areamongthe12warmestyearson
record(IPCCAR4WGI). Indeed,the10warmestyearsfromtheUKMeteorologicalOffices160yearrecords
areallsince1997,whileeightofthemareafter2001.(UKMetOfficeHadCRUT3temperaturerecord).
Climatechangewillcauseincreasedtemporalvariabilityofprecipitationevents.Thiswillposesignificant
problemsforhydroelectricgeneration.Theseimpactswillresultinmoresevereandfrequentfloodsand
droughts.Seasonaloffsets,orthealteringtimingandmagnitudeofprecipitationfortraditionalrainyand
dry seasons and peak snowmelt, will occur as well (Izrael, Y. 2007). The magnitude of climate change
induced precipitation shifts will vary greatly by season. In some cases precipitation is projected to be
reducedtwiceasmuchinoneseasonwhileinotherregions,wetseasonsmaybecomedrierandthedry
seasonsmaybecomewetter(Harrison,G.P.,&Whittington,H.,2002)
Regionalfindingsprovidedapreliminarybasisforcollectinginformationthatclimatechangeimpactswill
most significantly impact hydropower generation across the globe. A type of dam characteristics
determines affects on them by types of climate change impacts. The other factors determining the
responses to climate change impacts on hydropower generation are political, social and economic
factors,uniquetotheregion.
OnestudyinthePeribonkaRiverwatershedinQuebec,Canadapredictedmeanannualhydropowerto
decrease by 1.8 percent between 20102039 due to initial early peak flows and lack of summer
precipitation)andsubsequentlyincreaseby9.3percentand18.3percentduring20402069and2070
2099 respectively due to steadily increasing precipitation amounts (Minville et al, 2009). Some
predictions forecast a 40 percent loss in production by 2080 in the Pacific Northwest of the United
States. The prediction in increasing temperature and decreasing in rainfall hinted to likely a negative
effectonmeanannualdischarge,andinhydroelectricproduction.Earliersnowmeltswillshiftseasonal
iv

peak flow time thereby hurting hydroelectric production, especially during the summer when its
neededmost(PowerMarketsWeek,2005)

InsouthandsoutheasternEurope,likelihoodofdroughtsisincreasedanddecreaseinprecipitationthat
will lead to reduced water availability in 2070. So there will decline in hydropower production
correspondinglyabout20to50percentincountieslike,Portugal,Spain,Ukraine,andBulgaria(Lehner
etal.2005).Intheshortterm,glaciallyfedrivers,suchasthoseoriginatingintheAlpsandPyrenees,will
likelyseeincreasesinsummerdischargeasglaciersmeltfasterthantheyregenerate.Already,riversin
the Alps are seeing 13 percent increases in flow in August compared to two decades ago, and many
glaciers have diminished significantly (Huss, M, 2011). In the longterm, the contribution of these
retreatingglacierstoriverflowwilldecrease,by15to45percentbytheendofthiscentury(Lehneret
al. 2005). Overall across Europe, developed hydropower potential is predicted to decrease 7 to 12
percent by the year 2070 (Lehner et al, 2005). These decreases must also be considered within a
broadercontextofincreasedwaterandelectricityusage.
InCongoRiverBasin,HarrisonandWhittington.(2002)havenotedthatSimulationsindicatethatforall
scenarios annual flow levels at Victoria Falls reduce between 10 and 35.5 percent. In each case the
resultantflowchangeisgreaterthantheprecipitationchange,confirmingtheamplifyingeffectofthe
hydrology.
Spatialvariationoftheannualmeantemperaturetrendanalysisshowedtheincreasingtrendinalmost
entirecountryexceptonfewisolatedplaces.Noperfecttrendisestablishedtilldateandoutcomesvary.
TheIPCCAR4hasindicatedthatthewarminginSouthAsiawouldbeatleast24degreeCelsiusbythe
endofthecentury(Christensenetal.2007).Thewarmingratesfollowtheelevationalgradientinthe
Himalayanregion(e.g.,Bhutan,Nepal,andHimachalPradesh).Trendanalysisonobserveddatarainfall
andtemperaturewasperformed
The mean temperature over Nepal has a rising trend by about 0.02 to .06 per year ( Shrestha et al,
1999,Karmacharyaetal,2007,Baidyaetal,2008,PracticalAction2009).Theaverageannualrainfallsin
thebasinandonoverallwesternregionsofNepalhaveapositivetrend(Baidyaetal,2008).Nepalmay
getwarmingonaverageby3.54degreeCelsiusinthosescenariosattheendofthecentury.Annual
rate of temperature rise was found to be about 0.41o C per decade. Trend on precipitation was
decreasing at the rate of 9.8mm/decade in the month of April and May though, a rising trend of
precipitationwasobservedduringmonsoonseasons.Trendsofmonsoononsetandwithdrawalfrom21
yearsofdatashowthatmonsoonseasoniselongatinginboththeends.Onsetwilloccurearlierby71%
ofadayperannumandwithdrawalwillretreatbyabout15%ofadayperannum.
PrecipitationisprojectedtoincreaseintheentireNepalduringalltimespan(20s,50'sand80's)atA1,
A1B,andB2senarios(Chapter9,Table9.1).LargerincreaseinprecipitationisprojectedoverWestern
Regionwithupto60mmand80mmincreaseperannumrespectivelyduring20'sand50s.Sincehigh
precipitation and flood/ landslide are directly related, any significant increase in precipitation as
projectedovertheseareaswillincreasethelikelihoodoffloodandotherrelatedhazards.
v

Theeffectofrecentclimatechangesonriverflowsarenotyetdoneextensively.Thegeneralperception
ismadeontrendsinthreecategoriesaslargeoutletrivers,southernriversandsnowfedrivers.Among
the large rivers, Karnali and Sapta Koshi show a decreasing trend, Narayani (Kali Gandaki), shows an
increasingtrend.Southernriversdonotshowanytrend.Allofthethreesnowfedriversexaminedhere
show a declining trend in discharge. Preliminary trend analysis on observed records indicated that
dischargetrendisneitherconsistentnorsignificantinmagnitude.Itcouldbeduetoshortrecordlengths
and high interannual variability in discharge data. Another study indicated that the number of flood
daysandconsecutivedaysoffloodeventsappearedtobeincreasing(ShresthaandShrestha2003).
Amaximummonthlycontributionof22.52%isinMayandaminimummonthlycontributionof1.86%is
inJanuary.2.51%outoftotal8.46%snowandglaciermeltcontributionisfromDudhKoshisubbasin
(WWF2009).ThisbasinhasmaximumcontributiontoannualflowatChatara.ArunandTamorbasins
are two other major tributaries, Tamor, Arun and Dhudha Koshi share 84% Kosi flow at Chatara.
Indrawati subbasin has minimum contribution to annual flow at Chatara (0.15% out of total 8.46%).
(WWF2009).
A nearly completed Namche Hydropower Project was washed away byDig Tsho Glacier Lake outburst
flooded on 4 August 1985 in the Langmoche valley, Khumbu (Ives 1986; Yamada 1998). The lake,
crescentinshape,wasdammedbya50mhighterminalmoraine.TheGLOFwascausedbydetachment
ofalargeicemassfromtheupperportionoftheLangmocheglacierduringclearweatherconditionin
July. The ice mass overran the glacier and splashed into lake which was already full. Since then,
GovernmentofNepal(GON)hasconsideredGLOFsasathreattothedevelopmentofwaterresourcesof
the country and has realized the necessity to carry out studies on glaciers and GLOFs. Intense
precipitationevents,increasedfloods,landslides,andsedimentation(particularlyduringthemonsoon)
are expected to result from climate change. Hydropower infrastructure and facilities are at risk.
Hydroelectricplantsarehighlydependentonpredictablerunoffpatterns,.
BenBlackshearetal(2011)createdanillustratedframeworkthatshowsrelativechangesingeneration
capacity due to climate change. Climate change effects are located along the xaxis and the type and
characteristics of hydropower schemes along the yaxis (Chapter 4, Figure 4.2). Discharge, temporal
variability, and glacial melt do not apply to pure pumped storage, which is not connected to a river
network.Onlyevaporationisapplicabletoreservoirsurfaceareatovolumeratio(SA:Vol).]
Theslightincreaseintemperaturepairedwithanincreaseinprecipitationsuggeststhattheevaporation
ratesoftheregionwilldecreaseslightly.Thisisaddedbenefittolargesurfacereservoirs.Theoverall
increaseinprecipitationwillprovidemorewatertotherivers,increasingthepotentialforhydropower
generation. The increasing temperature in the Himalayas will increase the glacial melt that feeds the
rivers, increasing discharge for at least the next several decades. However, once these glaciers have
melted, there will be a decline in rivers discharge. South Asias climate and hydrological cycles are
significantlyimpactedbythemonsoon,whichhasalreadybeenalteredbyclimatechange(ScienceDaily,
2009). The monsoon delivers around 75 percent of the regions precipitation during roughly three
months.Thebeginningofthemonsoonispredicted toarrivelaterintheyear,makingthedryseason
longerandincreasingthenumberofdroughts(ScienceDaily,2009).Similarly,therewillbeanincrease
vi

intheseverityofrainfalleventsaswellasstorms,causingoverallincreasedtemporalvariabilityinwater
supply (McNally, A. 2009). The disparate distribution of precipitation timing in this area causes
significant variations in river discharge (the Mekong River study). Various climate change impacts are
interconnectedandhavesignificantrepercussionsforhydropower.Asclimatechangeimpactsintensify,
variationinflowswillbeexacerbated,makingitmoredifficultforhydropowerfacilitiestopredictriver
dischargeandtogenerateanevensupplyofpower.

vii

Table of Content
TableofContents
Acknowledgement......................................................................................................................................i
ResearchTeam..........................................................................................................................................ii
Executive Summary..................................................................................................................................iii
List of Tables.............................................................................................................................................x
List of Figures...........................................................................................................................................xi
List of Abbreviations...............................................................................................................................xiv
1.Studyobjectivesandmethodology.......................................................................................................1
2.HYDROPOWERHydroelectricity..........................................................................................................3
2.1TypologyofHydropowerSchemes...............................................................................................4
2.2PumpedStorage..........................................................................................................................5
2.3Reservoir.....................................................................................................................................6
2.4Runofriver................................................................................................................................6
3.CLIMATEchange....................................................................................................................................7
3.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................7
3.2PastClimatechanges..................................................................................................................8
3.3Climatechangesrecentera.........................................................................................................9
Changeintemperature..................................................................................................................11
Changeinprecipitation..................................................................................................................11
Changeinspecifichumidity............................................................................................................12
Changeinannualrunoff.................................................................................................................12
Glaciations.....................................................................................................................................13
4.CLIMATEChangeeffectspertinenttoHydropowerDevelopment.....................................................13
4.1Evaporation..............................................................................................................................17
4.2Discharge.................................................................................................................................17
4.3Temporalvariabilityofprecipitation........................................................................................17
4.4Flooding...................................................................................................................................17
4.5Droughts..................................................................................................................................18
4.6Seasonaloffset.........................................................................................................................18
4.7Glacialmelt..............................................................................................................................18
viii

5.RegionalFindingsClimatechangeimpactsandimplicationsforhydropower..................................18
5.1NorthAmerica..........................................................................................................................19
5.2SouthAmerica...........................................................................................................................20
5.3Europe......................................................................................................................................21
5.4MiddleEast..............................................................................................................................22
5.5Africa..................................................................................................................................................23
5.6AsianPacificregion..................................................................................................................24
5.7Asia..........................................................................................................................................24
6.MajorRiverBasinsofNepal.................................................................................................................27
6.1FirstGradeRivers.....................................................................................................................28
6.2SecondGradeRivers.................................................................................................................29
6.3ThirdGradeRivers....................................................................................................................29
7.HydropowerPotentialinNepal...........................................................................................................29
8.ClimatechangeinNepal......................................................................................................................32
8.1TrendinChangesinaverageannualmaximumtemperature....................................................33
8.2Trendinprecipitation...............................................................................................................33
8.3ClimatechangeinducedtrendinRainfallandTemperature.............................................................35
8.3.1Rainfall.......................................................................................................................................35
8.3.2FutureProjectiononRainfalltrend...........................................................................................37
9.CLIMATEChangeimpactinRiverflowspatterninNepal....................................................................40
9.1RiverFlowsPattern..................................................................................................................40
9.2TheeffectofclimatechangeinNepaleseriverflows................................................................46
10.ClimateChangeasitaffectsinHydropowerProduction..................................................................47
10.1HydropowerandImpactofClimateinSnowandGlacialareas................................................48
10.2ConsequenceofClimateChangetoInfrastructure...................................................................52
11.CONCLUSION,AdaptationsandPolicyRecommendation.................................................................53
Adaptationandpolicyrecommendation........................................................................................56
References...............................................................................................................................................58

ix

List of Tables
Table6.1:GeographicregionsofNepal
Table7.1:HydropowerPotentialofNepal(identified1June,2012)
Table7.2:Existingpowerplantsrunbyprivatecompanies.
Table7.3:LoadForecastforNepal
Table8.1:Regionalmeanmaximumtemperaturetrendsfortheperiod19771994(degreeC/year)
Table8.2:GCMEstimatesfortemperatureandprecipitationchangesinNepal
Table 8.3: Projected change for temperature and precipitation under different scenario averaged over
CentralHimalayanregion
Table10.1:.PriorityrankingofclimatechangeimpactsforNepal
Table10.2:Annualsnowandglaciermeltcontribution(in%)forincreasedtemperaturescenarios
Table 10.3: Contribution (%) of glacierized subwatersheds of each sub basins to the total flow at
downstreamstations
Table10.4:ListofGLOFeventsrecordedinNepal
Table11.1:TemperatureSensitiveGlaciatedAreasoftheMajorRiverBasinsinNepal.

List of Figures
Figure1.1:TheGlobalWaterSystemProjectsGlobalReservoirsandDamsDatabase(GRanD).
Figure1.2:ExistingPowerplantsinNepal
Figure2.3:ProjectsitephotoofKarnaliChisapaniMultipurposeProject
Figure2.1:HydrologicalCycle

Figure2.2:ExampleofHydroelectricSystem
Figure2.3:Typesandcharacteristicsofhydropowerschemes.
Figure2.4:Pumpedstoragehydropower.
Figure2.5:Reservoirhydropower.
Figure3.1Greenhousegaseffect
Figure 3.2: Reconstructions of (Northern Hemisphere average or global average) surface temperature
variationsfromsixresearchteams
Figure3.3:CarbondioxideConcentrationprojection(Icecoreanalysis)

Figure 3.5 Temperature Variations (Tree ring rings analysis.)

Figure3.5:Predictedglobalchangeinmeanannualairtemperature,20112030
Figure3.6:Predictedglobalchangeinmeanannualprecipitation,20112030.
Figure3.7:Predictedglobalchangeinspecifichumidity,20112030.
Figure3.9:Glaciatedwatershedsoftheworld.
Figure4.1:Flowchartofclimatechangeeffects
Figure 4.2: Framework of climate change effects on different characteristics of hydropower schemes.
Figure 5.1: Predicted monthly discharge changes for four dams on the Peribonka River in
Quebec,Canada
Figure 5.2: Predicted changes in river discharge across Europe by two models, for 2020s and 2070s.
Figure 5.3: Asian hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to
hydropower.
Figure6.1:RiversystemandNorthSouthTopographicaldifference
Figure7.1:LoadForecast

xi

Figure. 8.1: Projections of changes in monsoon precipitation (top) and average annual temperature
(bottom)bytheendofthetwentyfirstcenturyforemissionscenarioSRESA2(left)andB2
(right)
Figure8.1:Annualrainfall(mm/year)trend
Figure8.2:Premonsoonrainfall(mm/year)trend
Figure8.3:Monsoonrainfall(mm/year)trend
Figure8.4:Postmonsoonrainfall(mm/year)trend
Figure8.5:Winterrainfall(mm/year)trend

Figure8.6:24hourshighestrainfall(mm)
Figure8.7:MeanannualChangeinprecipitation(inmillimeter)forB1scenario(a)2020's(b)2050's(c)
2080's
Figure8.8:MeanannualChangeinprecipitation(inmillimeter)forA1Bscenario(a)2020's(b)2050's(c)
2080's
Figure8.9:MeanannualChangeinprecipitation(inmillimeter)forA2scenario(a)2020's(b)2050's(c)
2080's
Figure9.1:Locationofthreemajorriverssystem,Kosi,NarayaniandKarnali
Figure9.2:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofKosi
Figure9.3:AnnualflowsdeviationinKosi
Figure9.4TrendinmeanannualdischargeofTamur
Figure9.5:AnnualflowsdeviationinTamur
Figure9.6:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofNarayani
Figure9.7:AnnualflowsdeviationinNarayani
Figure9.8:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofChepe
Figure9.9:AnnualflowsdeviationinChepe
Figure9.10:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofKarnali
Figure9.11:AnnualflowsdeviationinKarnali
Figure9.12:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofChamelia

xii

Figure9.13:AnnualflowsdeviationinChamelia
Figure9.14:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofKankai
Figure9.15:AnnualflowsdeviationinKankai
Figure9.16:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofBagmati
Figure9.17:AnnualflowsdeviationinBagmati
Figure9.18:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofLotharandManahaririver
Figure9.19:PercentdifferenceinmeanannualflowswithlongtermofLoth
Figure9.20:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofWRapti
Figure9.21:AnnualflowsdeviationinWRapti
Figure9.22:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofBagmati
Figure9.23:AnnualflowsdeviationinBagmati
Figure9.24:Annualrunoffandrainfallvolume
Figure9.25:Flowrecessioncurves

xiii

List of Abbreviations
AOGCM

Atmosphere Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models

AR4

Fourth Assessment Report

CBS

CentralBureauofStatistics

CCCM

CanadianClimateChangeModel

CDM

CleanDevelopmentMechanism

CDR

CentralDevelopmentRegion

CH4

Methane

CO

CarbonMonoxide

CO2

CarbonDioxide

DDC

DistrictDevelopmentCommittee

DFRS

DepartmentofForestResearchSurvey

DHM

Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

EDR

EasternDevelopmentRegion

EIA

EnvironmentalImpactAssessment

EPA

EnvironmentProtectionAct

EPC

EnvironmentProtectionCouncil

FWDR

FarWesternDevelopmentRegion

GCM

GlobalCirculationModel

GCM

General Circulation Models

GHG

Greenhouse Gases

GHG

GreenhouseGas

GIS

Geographical Information System

xiv

GIS

GeographicalInformationSystem

GLOF

GlacierLakeOutburstFlood

ICIMOD

InternationalCenterforIntegratedMountainDevelopment

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPCC

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange

IUCN

InternationalUnionforConservationofNature

m.a.s.l.

meter above sea level

m3/s

cubic meter per second

MoEST

Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology

OECD

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

SOHAM-Nepal Society of Hydrologists and Meteorologist-Nepal

SRES

Special Report on Emission Scenario

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

xv

xvi

1.Studyobjectivesandmethodology
Theroleofhydropowerinnationalenergyandregionalcooperationisexpandingatallpartoftheglobe.
Figure1.1presentsglobaldatabaseofdamsandreservoirsbytheGlobalWaterSystemProjectsGlobal
ReservoirsandDamsDatabase(GRanD)(Lehneretal2011)updatedinMarch2011.Thepercentageofa
countrys energy portfolio that is made up of hydropower is different from country to country.
Variations in hydroelectric production on communities and economies have significant impacts on
humanlivelihoods.Nepalpossesanappreciableofhydroelectricitywhichismorethan83thousandMW
(Shrestha, Hariman). Nepal is able to exploit only less than two percent (Figure 1.2) of its potential.
Countrys hydroelectric dependency refers to the percent of total installed capacity dedicated to
hydropower. Photo 1 is a location of a project site of 10800 MW capacity hydropower project found
feasibleinKarnaliriverofNepal.

Figure 1.1: The Global Water System Projects Global Reservoirs and Dams Database (GRanD). Data:
GlobalWaterSystemsProject,2011.

Figure1.2:ExistingPowerplantsinNepal

Figure2.3:ProjectsitephotoofKarnaliChisapaniMultipurposeProject.[A270meterhighrockfillmain
damwithaninstalledcapacityof10,800MWand24meterhighreregulatingdam(at8kmdownstream
2

of the main dam) with an installed capacity of 84 MW (6x 14 MW) is seen feasible. The Irrigation
potentialinNepalis191,000nethectorsand3,200,000grosshectorsinIndia.]
The current global trends in climate have been affecting every corner of the globe at all aspects. The
effects on precipitation pattern and hydrological regime also are most critical to hydropower
generation. The scope of this report limits to the impacts that alters electricity availability from
hydropowerduetoclimatechangeinNepal.
Thisstudyviewsalsoonhowclimatechangehasbeenaddingchallengeandopennewopportunityto
hydropower developments in Nepal. This study is also intends to assist hydropower developer and
decisionmakers in integrating the present state of hydrology, and the vulnerability of hydroelectric
generation to climate change. This study is expected to be helpful in indentifying indicators in the
Nepalesecontextthatwouldbestrepresentthetypeofvulnerabilitytobepursued
The methodology of this study is based on research output made available as published literatures.
Various scientific studies results and information from multiple sources that are focused on climate
change vulnerability to water resource, especial focus on hydropower are synthesized and integrated.
Importantparametersofahydroelectricgenerationareinstalledcapacity,outputwattage,andstream
flows. Climate change impacts range from changing precipitation patterns, increasing glacial melting,
alteration on stream flows and increased occurrence of extreme weather events. This study basically
refers vulnerability to a hydropower generating facilitys potential to have its electrical generation
altered by climate change. This report focuses on impacts related to changes in temperature and
precipitation. Some of case studies along with dam characteristics in view of climate change impacts,
andprojectedclimatechangeimpactsarepresented.

2.HYDROPOWERHydroelectricity
The solar energy which drives the Hydrologic Cycle is utilized efficiently in hydropower (Figure 2.1).
Potential energy possess by water due to height difference between forbay (intake) to orifice of pen
stroke pipe is used to rotate generator through turbine for electricity production (Figure 2.2).
Hydroelectricity is the term referring to electricity generated by hydropower; the production of
electrical power through the use of the gravitational force of falling or flowing water. It is the most
widelyusedformofrenewableenergy,accountingfor16percentofglobalelectricityconsumption,and
3,427 terawatthours of electricity production in 2010, which continues the rapid rate of increase
experiencedbetween2003and2009.

Figure2.1:HydrologicalCycle

Figure2.2:ExampleofHydroelectricSystem

Powerofwaterhasbeenusedsinceancienttimestogrindflourandperformothertasks.Inthemid
1770s,FrenchengineerBernardForestdeBlidorpublishedanarticletitledasArchitectureHydraulique
whichdescribedverticalandhorizontalaxishydraulicmachines.Bythelate19thcentury,theelectrical
generatorwasdevelopedwhichisnowcoupledwithhydraulics.In1878theworld'sfirsthydroelectric
powerschemewasdevelopedatCragsideinNorthumberlandofEnglandbyWilliamGeorgeArmstrong.
Hydroelectricpowerplantscontinuedtoexpandwidelythroughoutthe20thcentury.Hydropowerwas
referredtoaswhitecoalforhydroelectricity.HooverDam'sinitial1,345MWpowerplantbuiltin1936
was the world's largest hydroelectric power plant till 1941. It was eclipsed by the 6809 MW Grand
CouleeDamin1942.TheItaipuDamopenedin1984inSouthAmericaasthelargest,producing14,000
MWbutissurpassedbytheThreeGorgesDaminChinaat22,500MWin2008.Hydroelectricitywould
eventuallysupplysomecountries,includingNorway,DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,Paraguayand
Brazil,withover85%oftheirelectricity.TheUnitedStatescurrentlyhasover2,000hydroelectricpower
plantswhichsupply49%ofitsrenewableelectricity.
Anargumentwhichisnotexclusiveinhydropoweriswhetherornotlargehydrosystemsbringbenefits
to the poorest has also been questioned (Collier, 2006). The multiple benefits of hydroelectricity,
includingirrigationandwatersupplyresourcecreation,rapidresponsetogriddemandfluctuationsdue
topeaksorintermittentrenewable.Recreationallakesandfloodcontrol,needtobetakenintoaccount
for any given development. Several sustainability guidelines and an assessment protocol have been
producedbytheindustry(IHA,2006;HydroTasmania,2005;WCD,2000).

2.1TypologyofHydropowerSchemes
A structural characteristic of hydropower schemes is related with types (Figure 2.3) like pumped
storage, reservoir, and runofriver (Egre, D., & Milewski, J. C, 2002). In general, pumped storage and
reservoir hydropower are evaluated in terms of the storage capacity and surface area(SA) to volume
(Vol)ratio(SA:Vol)oftheirreservoirs.Electricaldemandvariesfrompeakhourstononpeakhours.The

timeofdayandseasonofthehighestelectricaldemandrefertopeakhourswhereasnonpeakrefersto
timesofrelativelylowelectricaldemand.

Figure 2.3: Types and characteristics of hydropower schemes. Reservoir surface area to volume ratio
(SA:Vol) and reservoir size are only applicable to reservoir and pumped storage schemes. For the
purposeofthisreport,thecategoriesofhigh,low,large,andsmallarerelative,notdefiniteterms.
(Source:Egre,D.,anMilewski,J.C;2002).

2.2PumpedStorage
Pumpedstoragehydropowerstoreswateraspotentialenergyforelectricityproduction.Thispowerfor
storing water comes often comes from other sources or from unused such as wind and nuclear
electricity(IPCC,2011)orfromoffhourelectricityfromotherprojects.Typically,electricityfromthese
othersourcesisusedtopumpwateruptoahigherreservoir(Figure2.4)duringoffpeakhours.During
peak hours, the water is released to the lower reservoir to generate electricity. Pumped storage, in
whichthereservoirsarenotPumped storageismostcommonlyfoundinNorthAmerica,Europe,and
Asia(Egre&Milewski.2002).

Figure2.4:Pumpedstoragehydropower.(Source:Edenhoferetal.2011).

2.3Reservoir
Mostcommonly,hydropowerdamspartiallyblockthewaterflowofariverandstorewaterupstreamof
thedamtocreateareservoir(Figure2.5).Storedwaterinthereservoirisusedtoproduceelectricityat
desired time and is better able to withstand fluctuations in river flow. Larger reservoirs can buffer
greaterfluctuationsinflowoveralongertimeperiodtoprovidebothbaseandpeakpowergeneration,
whilesmallerreservoirstypicallyprovideonlybasepowergenerationbecauseoftheimpactsofvariable
dischargerates.Reservoirdamsarefoundworldwide(Egre&Milewski,2002).

Figure2.5:Reservoirhydropower.(SourceEdenhoferetal.2011)

2.4Runofriver
Runofriver facilities have no storage capacity to buffer fluctuations in water flow. Runofriver dams
utilizesomeorallofariversflowtoproduceelectricitywithoutimpoundinganysignificantamountof
waterupstream(Figure2.6).Thesefacilitiesprovideonlybasepowergeneration,lackingtheabilityto
6

storewaterforperiodsofpeakdemand.However,anupstream reservoirdammayactasstoragefor
downstream runofriver dams, restricting the flow during offpeak periods and releasing more water
duringperiodsofpeakelectricitydemandRunofriverhydropowerisfoundmostcommonlyinNorth
America,Europe,andAsia

Figure2.6:Runofriverhydropower.FromEdenhoferetal.2011.

3.ClimateChange
3.1Introduction
Onthebroadestscale,therateatwhichenergyisreceivedfromthesunandtherateatwhichitislost
tospacedeterminetheequilibriumtemperatureandclimateofEarth(Figure3.1).Thisenergyisthen
distributedaroundtheglobebywinds,oceancurrents,andothermechanismstoaffecttheclimatesof
differentregionsintheearth.

Figure3.1Greenhousegaseffect
7

IPCC defined "climate change" as: "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to
humanactivitythataltersthecompositionoftheglobalatmosphereandwhichisinadditiontonatural
climate variability observed over comparable time periods". Climate change refers to any significant
change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended
period(decadesorlonger).
UNFCCC: United Nation framework Conventions on Climate Change in its Article 1 defines climate
changeasachangeofclimate,whichisattributeddirectlyorindirectlytohumanactivitythataltersthe
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed
overcomparabletimeperiod.(Decadesorlonger).
Theinherentcharacteristicofclimateisthatitchangeswithtime"climatevariability.
The degree of climate variability that is described by the differences between longterm statistics of
meteorologicalelementscalculatedfordifferentperiodsisthemeasureofclimatechange.

3.2PastClimatechanges
ThemostrecentperiodinthegeologicalrecordiscalledHoloceneage.Itbeganatthetimeofretreatof
the continental ice sheets at the end of the last glaciations, which occurred at about 10 000 calendar
yearsbeforepresent.TheclimateduringtheHoloceneperiodappearedrelativelystablebuttherewere
significant climate fluctuations during this period (e.g. Bond et al. 1997; Mayewski et al. 1997;
deMenocaletal.2000).ThetropicalregionindicatesarapidwarmingfromtheearlytomidHolocene
followed by a relatively weak. Warming during the late Holocene. The dominant modes of Holocene
variabilityseemedaround2300and1000years.Temperaturereconstructionsderivedfromterrestrial
vegetation (Huntley and Prentice 1988) and mountain glaciers (Porter and Orombelli 1985) is also
understood as the Holocene Climatic Optimum This warm period is also observed (Crowley and
North1991).Thegraph(Figure3.2)providesreconstructionsofNorthernHemisphereaverageorglobal
averagesurfacetemperaturevariationsoverthelast1,100yearsfromsixresearchteams,alongwiththe
instrumentalrecordofglobalaveragesurfacetemperature.Overall,thecurvesshowawarmingaround
1000 AD followed by a long general cooling trend that continues until the early 1900s. Each curve
illustratesasomewhatdifferenthistoryoftemperaturechanges,witharangeofuncertaintiesthattend
toincreasebackwardintime.

Figure 3.2: Reconstructions of (Northern Hemisphere average or global average) surface temperature
variations from six research teams (in different colour shades) along with the instrumental record of
global average surface temperature (in black). [Reconstructions (2006) by the National Academy of
Sciences]

3.3Climatechangesrecentera
Current debate on climate changes is blamed to green house gases. Scientists have been examining
various causes for this warming trend: looking at the impact on temperature of natural variations,
volcanicactivity,changesinsolaractivity,urbanheateffectsandmore.Howeverthesignificantcauseof
the warming trend is seen as the Greenhouse Effect a wellunderstood phenomenon that was
discoveredin1824andfirstmeasuredin1859(IPCCAssessmentReport4,2007).
Themajorgreenhousegasesarewatervapour,carbondioxide(CO2),methane(CH4)andnitrousoxide
(N20). Some concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere are natural but human activity is producing
moreandmoreofthesegaseseachyear,Thehumaninfluencecontributedmorecarbondioxidethan
anyothergreenhousegas.CurrentlytheCO2concentrationintheatmosphereismorethan390parts
permillion(ppm)(DatafromMaunaLoaobservatorymonthlyaverageasviewedApril2010),
significantly higher than the preindustrial figure of around 280 ppm. (IPCC AR4 WG1) (Figure 3.3 and
3.4)

Figure3.3:CarbondioxideConcentration
projection(Icecoreanalysis)Source:Time

Figure 3.5 Temperature Variations

(Tree ring rings analysis.) Source : Time

forClimateJustice,June2010

for Climate Justice, June 2010

Observation tells us the world is warming. Global average temperatures, calculated from networks of
weather stations around the world, show a persistent warming trend (IPCC Assessment Report 4, 2007). The
Earths average temperature has increased by 0.75C over the past 100 years. (UK Met Office HadCRUT3
temperaturerecord)
Eleven of the 12 years from 1995 to 2006 are among the 12 warmest years on record (IPCC AR4 WGI).
Indeed,the10warmestyearsfromtheUKMeteorologicalOffices160yearrecordsareallsince1997,
while eight of them are after 2001. (UK Met Office HadCRUT3 temperature record) Global average temperature
trends are calculated by the UK Meteorological Office, which works with the Climatic Research Unit
(CRU) at the University of East Anglia, and in the United States by the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (GISS) at NASA and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Each of
thesethreegroupsusesdifferentmethodstocollectandprocessdatabut theycomeoutwithvery
similar results and the same longterm warming trend. This trend in surface temperatures has been
reflectedinsimilarwarmingtrendsinatmosphericandoceantemperatures.Furthermoretheimpactof
increased temperatures can be observed in changes in the environment such as sealevel rise and
widespread loss of glaciers and snow cover (IPCC AR4 WGI). Some scientists have speculated that
Arcticwouldcompletelyicefreeduringsummersintheinthenextfewtowardstheendofthetwenty
firstcentury(PIRC, 2008, IPCC AR4 WG1). Thewarmingofthepast50yearswasunprecedentedin
thelast1,300yearsatleastandprobablyforseveralmillennia.Itisassumedthatthelasttimethepoles
weresignificantlywarmerforalongperiod,sealevelswere46mhigherthantheyarenow(IBID)

10

Predictionismadebyscientists(IPCC,2007).Predictedglobalchangeinmeanannualairtemperature
(Figure 3.5), precipitation (Figure 3.6), specific humidity (Figure 3.7), annual runoff (Figure 3.8), and
glaciations(Figure3.9),aregiveninfiguresbelow.

Changeintemperature

Figure 3.5: Predicted global change in mean annual air temperature, 20112030. Air temperature
anomalyindegreesKelvin.Data:IPCCDDC,NCARCCSM3basedonSRA2scenario.

Changeinprecipitation

Figure3.6:Predictedglobalchangeinmeanannualprecipitation,20112030.Precipitationfluxanomaly
(kgm2s1).Data:IPCCDDC,NCARCCSM3basedonSRA2scenario.

11

Changeinspecifichumidity

Figure 3.7: Predicted global change in specific humidity, 20112030. Specific Humidity Anomaly (ratio).
Data:IPCCDDC,CCSR/NIES/FRCGCMIROC3.2basedonSRA2scenario.

Changeinannualrunoff

Figure3.8:Predictedglobalchangeinannualrunoff,20902099.

12

Water availability in percent, relative to 19801999. These predictions may not necessarily reflect
changesoverashortertimescale.MapadaptedfromIPCCDDC.

Glaciations

Figure 3.9: Glaciated watersheds of the world. This map uses components of the USGS HYDRO1k
Pfafstetterwatersheddelineationsystemtorepresentthedrainagesoftheworldthatcontainglaciers.
Damslocatedwithinthoseglaciateddrainagesarealsoshown.Data:GRanDDamDatabase2011,USGS
HYDRO1k2011.

4.ClimateChangeeffectspertinenttoHydropowerDevelopment
Theflowchartbelow(Figure4.1)wasdesignedtoidentifythetypesofclimatechangeeffectspredicted
indifferentpartsoftheworld(Blackshear,2011).Theflowchartisdesignedtoshowthecomplexways
inwhichthetwomostimportantclimatechangeeffects,changesinprecipitationandtemperature,will
impact hydropower (Izrael, Y. ,2007, IPCC 2007). The maps show specific predicted climate change
effects: global changes in precipitation, temperature, specific humidity, and runoff, as well as current
glaciatedwatershedsoftheworld.Thefinalboxesontheflowchartarethechangesinriverdischarge,
whichiswhatbroadlydetermineshowmuchelectricityagivenhydropowerfacilitycangenerate.

13

Figure4.1:Flowchartofclimatechangeeffects. Redindicates effectsthat aretypicallydetrimental to

hydroelectric production, and blue indicates effects that typically improve hydroelectric production
potential.
To understand how climate change will affect hydropower production, it is necessary to consider the
ways in which characteristics of hydropower facilities affect their vulnerability to climate change. To
explain these interactions, Ben Blackshear et al (2011) created an illustrated framework that shows
relativechangesingenerationcapacityduetoclimatechange.Climatechangeeffectsarelocatedalong
thexaxisandthetypeandcharacteristicsofhydropowerschemesalongtheyaxis(Figure4.2).

14

Figure 4.2: Framework of climate change effects on different characteristics of hydropower schemes.
[Climatechangeimpactsareshownalongthexaxis,andhydropowercharacteristics,areshowndown
theyaxis.Discharge,temporalvariability,andglacialmeltdonotapplytopurepumpedstorage,which
isnotconnectedtoarivernetwork.Onlyevaporationisapplicabletoreservoirsurfaceareatovolume
ratio(SA:Vol).]
Not only Nepal, south Asian region will face unique challenges as climate continues changing. Glacial
meltduetoincreasingtemperaturesvariabilityinthetiming,locationandamountofprecipitationand,
Floods, droughts, and are all symptoms of climate change that will affect hydroelectric generation.
Developing countries like Nepal are inherently more vulnerable to the effects of climate change
disruptions because they have fewer disposable resources to spend on unexpected extreme weather
eventsandonadaptingtolongtermalterations.

15

Changesintemperatureandchangesinprecipitationpatternshaveprofoundeffectsonriversystems.
Theseimpactsdirectlyaffecthydroelectricproduction.RapidlymeltingglaciersintheRockyMountains,
the Andes, and the Himalaya change the already variable hydrographs of the rivers they feed. Severe
storms caused by warming ocean temperatures have the capacity to threaten hydropower
infrastructure and flood entire regions. Hydropower is dependent on river discharge to create
electricity. Generally, the lower the river discharge, the less electricity a hydropower facility can
generate.Differingscalesandtypesofhydropoweraremorevulnerabletoclimatechangephenomena.
Ourstudyconsidershowprojectedclimatechangeimpactswillaffecthydropowervulnerabilityacross
theglobe.
Thoughhydropoweriswidelyconsideredtobearenewableresourceandalowemissionsalternativeto
fossil fuels, it comes with its own set of environmental impacts. Many of these impacts will likely
intensify as the effects of climate change become more severe. Hydropower already constitutes a
significantproportionofmanycountriesenergyportfolios.Somecountries,suchasChina,havealready
made massive investments in hydropower in their own country as well as abroad. Certain regions are
dominated by largescale hydropower while others are powered through smaller scale hydropower
projects. Due to the global scope of this study, we focus on larger projects. Future plans for
hydroelectricgenerationvarygreatlyfromregiontoregion,asdotheeffectsofclimatechange.Across
North America, concerned environmentalists are working to decommission large dams, while areas in
Asia,LatinAmerica,Africa,andtheMiddleEastareintheprocessofbuildinglargedams
An review of World Energy till 2004 made by British Petroleum shows that large hydroelectricity
systems (>10 MW) contribute over 2800 TWh of consumer energy (BP, 2006) that also accounts to
about 16% of global electricity and 90% of renewable electricity IPCC (2007). Expansion of Hydro
projectsisgearingupparticularlyinChina,India,BrazilandpotentialrichcountrylikeNepal.Theglobal
technically potential of small and micro hydro is around 150200 GW which is only a part of large
potentialleftyettobeexploited.Evaluationsofhybridhydro/windsystems,hydro/hydrogensystems
andlowheadrunofriversystemsareunderreview(IEA,2006d).About75%ofwaterreservoirsinthe
world were built for irrigation, flood control and urban watersupply schemes can have small
hydropower generation schemes. Small (<10 MW) and micro (<1 MW) hydropower systems, usually
runofriverschemes,haveprovidedelectricitytomanyruralcommunitiesindevelopingcountriessuch
asNepal.Hydroplantscapacitiesaredeterminedasperprevailingrequirements.The12.6GWItaipu
plant in Brazil/Paraguay, are run as base load generators with an average capacity factor of >80%,
whereasthe 24GWofpumpedstorageplantinJapanisused mainlyasfastresponsepeakingplants,
givingafactorcloserto40%capacity.

Butsocialdisruptions,ecologicalimpactsonexistingriverecosystemsincludingfisheriesarestimulating
public opposition due to water diversion and evaporative water losses. The GHG footprint of
hydropowerreservoirshasbeeninquestioned(Fearnside,2004;UNESCO,2006).Somereservoirshave
beenshowntoabsorbCO2attheirsurface,butmostemitsmallamountsaswaterconveyscarbonin
thenaturalcarboncycle(Tremblay,2005).HighemissionsofCH4havebeenrecordedatshallowplateau
16

typetropicalreservoirswherethenaturalcarboncycleismostproductive(Delmas,2005).Deepwater
reservoirsatsimilarlowlatitudestendtoexhibitloweremissions.Methanefromnaturalfloodplainsand
wetlandsmaybesuppressediftheyareinundatedbyanewreservoirsincethemethaneisoxidizedasit
rises through the covering water column (Huttunen, 2005; dos Santos, 2005). Methane formation in
freshwater produces byproduct carbon compounds (phenolic and humic acids) that effectively
sequesterthecarboninvolved(Sikar,2005).
Evaporation, discharge, temporal variability, and glacial melt impact the vulnerability of certain
hydropowerfacilitiesandreservoircharacteristicsasmentionedbelow.

4.1Evaporation
Increasedevaporationwillreduceelectricitygenerationforalltypesofdams,buttheseeffectswillbe
mostdrasticforthosewithreservoirs.Duetothedirectrelationshipbetweenthesurfaceareaofabody
ofwateranditsrateofevaporation,thegeometryofreservoirsdetermineshowsusceptibletheyareto
evaporation (McJannet et al, 2008) Reservoirs with higher surface area to volume ratios are more
vulnerable to losing capacity from evaporation, which reduces a facilitys power production capacity
(Izrael,Y.(2007).Retrofittingreservoirstomakethemdeeperwithasmallersurfaceareawouldreduce
evaporation;howeveritisveryexpensive(McJannetetal,2008).Plannedprojectsshouldtakereservoir
shapeintoconsiderationintheirdesigninordertoreduceevaporationandmaximizepowerpotential.
Reservoir size is important to evaporation as well, as smaller reservoirs will be more at risk to losing
greaterproportionsoftheirvolume,asreflectedintheaboveillustratedframework.

4.2Discharge
Thoughanincreaseinamountofannualriverdischargecansometimessimplytranslatetoanincreasein
hydropowerproduction,fluctuationsindischargeaffectdifferenttypesoffacilitiesdifferently.Runof
riverdams,forexample,maybemorevulnerabletodecreasedamountsofdischargebecausetheyare
directlydependentontheriversflow,whereasreservoirdamsmaybeabletocompensatebetterfor
decreased amounts of water by adapting the management plan for the reservoir volume. In our
diagram, discharge refers to the annual discharge, which can be directly correlated to changes in
precipitation. It does not address other issues such as temporal variability, which we account for in
anothersection.

4.3Temporalvariabilityofprecipitation
Climatechangewillcauseincreasedtemporalvariabilityofprecipitationevents.Thiswillposesignificant
problemsforhydroelectricgeneration.Theseimpactswillresultinmoresevereandfrequentfloodsand
droughts.Seasonaloffsets,orthealteringtimingandmagnitudeofprecipitationfortraditionalrainyand
dryseasonsandpeaksnowmelt,willoccuraswell(Izrael,Y.2007).

4.4Flooding
By delivering water supply at varied and unpredictable times, temporal variability negatively impacts
hydroelectric production. However, it impacts reservoir dams less than runofriver facilities because
reservoir dams have the capacity to store water, thereby accounting for these variations in reservoir
volume.Damscancontrolthefloodpulseofariverandhelpbufferdownstreamareasfromdangerous
17

impacts (Hauenstein, W., 2005). Flooding has the potential to increase river flows and hydropower
generationaslongastheexcessriverflowlevelremainswithinthedamsreservoircapacity.

4.5Droughts
Droughtsmaypresentthemostobviousthreattohydroelectricgeneration,astheyreducetheamount
of water available to produce electricity. Many regions have experienced droughts in the last several
decades that greatly reduced energy production, reducing up to half of their electrical production
capacityinsomeCases(SailorD.J.,MuozJ.R.,1997).A2009studyinthewesternUnitedStates,which
modelledtheimpactofdroughtscenariosonelectricitygeneration,foundthathydroelectricgeneration
would be reduced by 30 percent (National Energy Technology Laboratory (2009). Droughts in areas
exclusively dependent hydropower for electricity generation would face blackouts in some drought
scenarios.

4.6Seasonaloffset
The seasonality of precipitation causes variability in hydroelectric generation. Regions with distinct
seasonal rain cycles and snowmelt seasons typically experience fluctuations in generation due to
precipitations influence on flow. Munoz and Sailor note that Under global warming, the existent
difference between the generation in fallwinter and springsummer will increase. Sailor and Muoz.
(1997). Thus power production will indeed increase relative to current rates during part of the year;
however, this will be counteracted by sharp decreases in other months. The magnitude of climate
changeinducedprecipitationshiftswillvarygreatlybyseason.Insomecasesprecipitationisprojected
tobereducedtwiceasmuchinoneseasonwhileinotherregions,wetseasonsmaybecomedrierand
thedryseasonsmaybecomewetter(Harrison,G.P.,&Whittington,H.(2002)

4.7Glacialmelt
Glaciatedregionsoftheworldactasnaturalwatertowersthatprovidewatertodownstreamareas.As
glaciers continue toretreatinresponsetoclimatechange,runofftoriverswillinitiallyincreasein the
shortterm due to the large volumes of stored ice melting away. Eventually these stores of ice may
disappear entirely, however, resulting in a longterm decrease in annual runoff and stream discharge.
(Huss,M.(2011).

5. Regional Findings Climate change impacts and implications for

hydropower
Neither river systems nor climate change affects are constrained by manmade political boundaries.
Many case studies and data sets are regional. Regional findings provided a preliminary basis for
collectinginformationthatclimatechangeimpactswillmostsignificantlyimpacthydropowergeneration
acrosstheglobe.Atypeofdamcharacteristicsdeterminesaffectsonthembytypesofclimatechange
impacts. The severity and type of these impacts vary significantly each regionally. The other factors
determiningtheresponsestoclimatechangeimpactsonhydropowergenerationarepolitical,socialand
economic factors, unique to the region. Regional portfolios of North America, South America, Europe,
andtheMiddleEast,Africa,andAsiaPacificand.Asiaiscopiedbelowforreferences.
18

5.1NorthAmerica
TheUnitedStatesandCanadarankamongthetopfourlargesthydroelectricityproducersintheworld.
Mexico is considerably less developed with regards to hydropower in the region. But the country has
someverylargedamscurrentlyoperationalandsomepotentialsitesforadditionallargeandsmallscale
damsareproposedtobeconstructed(U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration.(2011).
The expected longterm increase of annual and seasonal precipitation in parts of Canada has the
capacitytoincreasehydroelectricoutputinthoseareas.OnestudyinthePeribonkaRiverwatershedin
Quebec, Canada predicted mean annual hydropower to decrease by 1.8 percent between 20102039
due to initial early peak flows and lack of summer precipitation) and subsequently increase by 9.3
percent and 18.3 percent during 20402069 and 20702099 respectively due to steadily increasing
precipitationamounts(Minvilleetal,2009).Thisinitialdecreaseinproductionisexpectedtohitrunof
riverdamsharderthanreservoirdams,astheyareunabletoabsorbtheimpactoflowsummerflows
through storage of river water from earlier in the year. There are a couple of predicted negative
impacts: firstly, the increased volatility of discharge due to more frequent extreme events. Changing
seasonalpatternsisexpectedtolowerthereliabilityofreservoirstostorewaterefficiently,resultingin
moreunproductiveoverspill;andsecondly,peakflowsareexpectedtocomeearlierwithlessdischarge,
ascanbeseeninFigure5.1,whichanalyzesfourofthedamsinthePeribonkaRiverbasin(Minvilleetal,
2009)

Figure5.1:PredictedmonthlydischargechangesforfourdamsonthePeribonkaRiverin
Quebec,Canada.(Minvilleetal.,2009).

19

The prediction in increasing temperature and decreasing in rainfall on the Pacific Northwest of the
UnitedStateshavelikelyanegativeeffectonmeanannualdischarge,andinhydroelectricproduction.
Somepredictionsforecasta40percentlossinproductionby2080.Earliersnowmeltswillshiftseasonal
peak flow time thereby hurting hydroelectric production, especially during the summer when its
needed most (Power Markets Week, 2005) in the dry north and northwestern parts of Mexico. If
temperaturesincreasesignificantly,though,droughtscouldthreatenhydroelectricplant productionin
allpartsofthecountry(Boyd,R.,&Ibarrarn,M.E.2009).

5.2SouthAmerica
Ofalloftheregionsintheworld,LatinAmericaisoneofthemostreliantonhydropowerforitsenergy
production.InstalledhydropowercapacityinLatinAmericahasthepotentialtoproduceapproximately
140,000MW, or between 5060 percent of the regions energy demands (U.S. Energy Information
Administration, 2011). All nations in Latin America rely significantly on hydropower as an important
energy resource. Brazil, Paraguay, Venezuela, and Costa Rica are most reliant on hydropower, which
providesover80percentoftheirelectricitysupply.
Brazilhasthelargestreserveofsurfacefreshwaterontheplanetnearly20percentoftheglobalsupply
and most of that found in the relatively undeveloped regions of the Amazon River (Castano, 2011).
ArgentinaandChilesharetheworldsthirdlargeststoreoficeaswellasalloftheriversthatcompose
theregionofPatagonia.ThenorthwesternsectorofSouthAmericaincludingPeru,Bolivia,Ecuador,and
Colombiahasstartedtodiscovertheirhydropowerpotential.
ClimatechangesinLatinAmericashowagreatdealofvariabilityacrosstheregion.Differentprojections
associated with evaporation and precipitation makes difficult to make stream flow projections.
Projectionsrelatedtoclimatechangevarysignificantlyatregionallevelsfrommodeltomodel.(Izrael,Y.
2007). The variation in model output is believed due to the smaller hydrometereological observation
network in Southern Hemisphere (Soito, J. L., Freitas D. S. 2011). However, it can be expected that
general changes in rainfall patterns will occur and, increased frequency of extreme rainfall events
throughouttheregionwillleadtogreaterinstancesoffloodingoverlargerareasandlongerperiodsof
time.GreaterrainfallisexpectedintheRiverPlateBasinbetweenArgentinaandUruguayduetothe
trend of increasing rainfall in the region from 1960 to 2000. There have been notable decreases in
rainfall over western Chile and Peru, leading to the prediction that rainfall levels will continue to
decrease on the Pacific side of South America in the near future. The Amazon River watershed is
predictedtofeelsignificanteffectsofclimatechangeoverthenexthalfcentury.Theregionisexpected
toreceivemarkedlylessrainfallwithincreasedintensityoftheElNioSouthernOscillation.Thezoneof
LatinAmericai.e.theAmazonplainsofBolivia,Peru,andwesternBrazilhashavegreatimpactsonthe
downstream variability in the Amazon River discharges. Changes in river flows in Latin America are
mainlyassociatedwithchangesinrainfallaswellaschanginglandusepractices.Duetotherelatively
drierclimatesintheAmazonassociatedwith the ElNioSouthernOscillation,significant decreasesin
streamoutflowinpartsoftheAmazonandTocantinsriverbasinsareexpected.TheParanRiverwhich
containsmorethan55percentofBrazilsinstalledhydroelectriccapacityaswellasgreathydroelectric
generation potential for Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay is projected to experience river flows that

20

aresignificantlyhigherthantodayduetoincreasedrainfallamountsthroughouttheRiverPlatedrainage
basin.ThusHyrdroindustrieswillrequiredevelopingmoreflexibleapproachestomanagingreservoirs
(SoitoandFreitas,2011).

5.3Europe
The topography of Europe has favoured wide variety of hydropower types including pumped storage,
runofriver, and reservoirs. The Alps, which stretch across France, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, and
Austria, provide much of the changes in topography that provide hydropower potential to Western
Europe.Thereisahighconcentrationofreservoirdamsinmountainousandglaciatedareas,including
the Alps, the Pyrenees, and Norway. Hydropower accounts for approximately 19 percent of Europes
totalinstalledelectriccapacity(U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,2011).Modelpredictionsvary
withavailabilityofwater.ItislikelytoincreaseacrossnorthernEuropeanddecreaseinsouthernand
southeasternEurope(Figure5.2).Overthenextseveraldecades(Lehneretal;2005).Specificchanges
inflowregimeandcharacteristicsofexistinghydropowersystemswillguideonhydropowerproduction
inthecountriesandregionswithinEurope.

Figure 5.2: Predicted changes in river discharge across Europe by two models, for 2020s and 2070s.
(Source:Lehneretal.2005)

21

InsouthandsoutheasternEurope,likelihoodofdroughtsisincreasedanddecreaseinprecipitationthat
will lead to reduced water availability in 2070. So there will decline in hydropower production
correspondinglyabout20to50percentincountieslike,Portugal,Spain,Ukraine,andBulgaria(Lehner
etal.2005).Intheshortterm,glaciallyfedrivers,suchasthoseoriginatingintheAlpsandPyrenees,will
likelyseeincreasesinsummerdischargeasglaciersmeltfasterthantheyregenerate.Already,riversin
the Alps are seeing 13 percent increases in flow in August compared to two decades ago, and many
glaciers have diminished significantly (Huss, M, 2011). In the longterm, the contribution of these
retreatingglacierstoriverflowwilldecrease,by15to45percentbytheendofthiscentury(Lehneret
al.2005).
Scandinavia and northern Russia will have increased water availability. But this change does not
necessarily translate to a direct, equivalent increase in hydropower production. Runofriver dams in
Sweden are particularly susceptible to changes in flow pattern because of their inability to store
discharge that exceeds maximum production capacity. Thus, an analysis of the impacts of climate
change on hydropower in northern Europe must examine not only production capacity and changing
water availability, but also the type of hydropower facilities. Overall across Europe, developed
hydropower potential is predicted to decrease 7 to 12 percent by the year 2070 (Lehner et al, 2005).
These decreases must also be considered within a broader context of increased water and electricity
usage.

5.4MiddleEast
TheMiddleEastliesinatransitionzonebetweenthetemperate,wetclimateofCentralEuropeandthe
aridclimateofNorthAfrica.WiththedesertenvironmentsoftheArabianPeninsulatothesouth,and
the wet mountainous regions of Turkey and Iran to the north and east, even small shifts in climatic
patternsarelikelytohavetremendousimpactsontheregionsclimate.(Giorgi,F.2008).
The Middle Easts surface hydrology is primarily defined by the TigrisEuphrates River Basin, which
boastsameanannualstreamflowof85billioncubicmeters(BCM).(Cullen,2002)OriginatinginTurkey,
the Tigris River flows contains about 86 percent of flow that is derived from surface runoff and
snowmelt within Turkey. (Cullen, 2002) The Zargos Mountain Range maintains a climate of
considerableprecipitation,whichprovidesvariousriverbasinswithsnowmeltandsurfacerunoffwhich
facilitatepowerfulstreamflow.
The Middle Easts climatic variations are in large part due to the North Atlantic Oscillation Pattern
(NAO). The NAO regulates heat and moisture fluxes in the Mediterranean Region and ultimately
influencesclimatepatternsthroughouttheMiddleEast.(Turkes,M.,1996).Overthepast150years,this
climaticpatternhasprovidedtheMediterraneanandMiddleEastwithmuchof,itsprecipitationinthe
form of wet winters (Hurrell, J.W., 1995). The NAO transports winter cyclones to the area, and large
amounts of precipitation with them. Cullen et al (2002) noted that increased greenhouse gas (GHG)
concentrations in the atmosphere would significantly impact the regional precipitation patterns.
Specifically, December through March precipitation and stream flow can be expected to be lower
(Cullenetal.2011)duetoclimatechange.AstheNAOisasignificantcontributortosnowaccumulation,

22

theultimatesourcesofboththeTigrisandEuphratesRivers,climatechangewillhaveamajorimpacton
regionsflowrates(Sowers,etal,2011).

ThistrendisfurthercorroboratedwithA2andB2IPCCemissionscenariosandtheICTPRegCMclimate
modelwhichstatethatbytheendofthe21stcenturytheMediterraneanregionmightexperiencea
substantialincreaseandnorthwardextensionofaridregimelands.(Giorgi,F.2008).Thisthreatensto
increase water scarcity in downstream states. Arabian Peninsula remain still limited potential for
hydroelectric development due to a dearth of rivers, the predicted increase of precipitation in the
mountainousregionsofIranwillincreaseflowaveragesintheKarunRiverbasin.MostoftheMiddle
East stands to lose precipitation in climate change projections, increased precipitation in the Iranian
mountainsmaytranslatetoincreasedflowandincreasedhydroelectricpotential.

5.5Africa
Africaisheavilydependentonhydropower.SouthAfrica's42GWenergyaccountsaround40percentof
total African capacity (Neil Ford.2007). Due to the dearth of water resources in northern Africa, Sub
Saharan Africa is home to the majority of the continents hydroelectric dams. Most of the generating
capacityisconcentratedonthecontinentsmajorrivers,theNile,theCongo,andtheZambezi.However,
smallerbasinssuchastheVoltaalsocontainanumberofhydroelectricdams
Dominant role in Africas electricity portfolio, large projects are planned and under construction in a
numberofnationsincludingEthiopia,Uganda,Zambia,MozabiqueandLiberiab(Basson,G.2004).The
enormous power potential at Grand Inga has led to discussions of constructing a continent spanning
electricitygridthatcouldprovidepowertoallAfricansandprovidesomeelectricitytoEuropeandthe
MiddleEast.(Wachter,S.2007;Showers,K.B.;2009).
Recurringdroughtshaveplaguedhydroelectricdamsandledtopowerrationingacrossthecontinent.In
thepastdecade,fromGhanatoKenya,Zimbabwe,andTanzania,droughtshavedisruptedgeneration,
sometimesreducingplantstohalfoftheircapacity.(Mukheibir,P;2007;Waylen,P.2008).Differences
intemperatureandrainfallareprojectedtobethetwobiggestimpactsofclimatechangeinAfrica(but
these can also increase evaporation, a crucial consideration for reservoirs (Mukheibir, P. (2007) the
rainfall changes will also be different for different sub regions, which raises questions for regional
planningandpowerdistribution.Whilesomeregionswilllikelyreceivemorerainfallandthusincreased
riverflows,thereisuncertaintyregardingtheconsistencyofthisincrease.
The Congo River Basin isprojected to receive both increased rainfall and temperatures, but minimum
evaporative reductions to generating capacity due to the humidity of the region and the dearth of
reservoir dams (Mukheibir, P., 2007) Other regions face more striking predictions, Climate models
predict an average 1020 percent decline in rainfall, resulting in the rivers of Botswana and Tunisia
completely drying up. The highrisk regions include the eastwest bands stretching from Senegal to
Sudan.(Sharife,K.(2009).HarrisonandWhittington.(2002)alsonotethatSimulationsindicatethat

23

forallscenariosannualflowlevelsatVictoriaFallsreducebetween10and35.5percent.Ineachcase
theresultantflowchangeisgreaterthantheprecipitationchange,confirmingtheamplifyingeffectof
thehydrology.
Yamba, et al (2011) conducted a fairly comprehensive study of projected climate change impacts on
hydroelectricgenerationintheZambeziRiverBasin.Theseauthorspairedhydrologicmodelling,based
on historical data, with projected climate changes to reveal general trends for the basin and more
specific changes for each dam site. Their findings indicate a gradual overall reduction in generation
capacityoverthenext60years.Yamba,etal.(2011)Howeverthisreductionisonlygradualinlightof
this time scale, as Yamba et al. predict both severely dry years, and potential flooding events. Thus
extremevariabilitymust beplannedforthroughstrategic managementofflowsbetweendamsinthe
basintomaximizegeneration.

5.6AsianPacificregion
There are varying scales of hydropower in the AsianPacific region. Australia maintains the greatest
installed capacity with 8,186 MW (Harries, D. (2011). followed by New Zealand (5,373 MW), Malaysia
(4520MW),Indonesia(4,869MW),thePhilippines(3,291MW),PapuaNewGuinea(216MW),andFiji
(85MW).Energici.(2010).
As much of the region depends on hydroelectric generation, small changes in climate patterns
influencingstreamflowcanhavemajorimpactsonoverallhydroelectricproductivity.Despitethemany
studies completed in this region, there is still uncertainty in climate change prediction models with
respect to precipitation.152 In one study, while an increase in precipitation of 0.19.3 percent was
predictedunderIPCCA1BscenariosforthePhilippines,IPCCA2climatemodelspredictedprecipitation
torangefromadecreaseof3.3percenttoanincreaseof3.3percent(Combaliceretal,2010).Varying
predictionsincludeincreasedrainfallduringthemonsoonseasonorpersistentdrymonthsthroughout
theyear.(Espinueva,S.R.2010).SomestudiespredictincreasedprecipitationinsoutheasternAustralia
(where the majority of hydroelectric production is located), (Hughes, L. L. (2003). while other studies
forecastadrierfutureonaverage(Chiewetal,2011).Increaseintemperatureisprojectedthroughout
theregionwhichwillincreaseevaporationandaffectstreamflowsCountrieslikeNewZealandarethe
most susceptible to conditions of decreased precipitation due to their dependence on reservoir dams
withrelativelylittlecapacity.ComparedtoAustraliandams,withlargecapacityreservoirdams,mostof
NewZealandsdamshavelittleabilitytobufferdroughtconditions.

5.7Asia
ThelargepopulationofAsiaandtheexpansionofurbanareashavecausedarapidgrowthinelectricity
demand. But less than a quarter of the continents energy comes from hydroelectricity. The vast
majority of the electricity, almost seventy percent, is supplied by conventional thermal power plants.
Many areas of Asia are incredibly rich in fossil fuels, which encourages the continent to rely on this
cheapandreadilyavailableenergysource(U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,2011)

24

NationslikeNepal,Bhutan,PakistanandTajikistanrelysignificantlyonhydroelectricity(Figure5.3).The
rivers which are utilised for power production are already transforming due to the effects of global
climatechange.(U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,2011).Hydroelectricitycomprisesthemajority
of electricity generation in the central Asian countries of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. These nations have ambitious plans for expanding their hydroelectric
sector, they have already experienced obstacles, both in the form of climactic variability and
international tensions.(Steward, Richard. 2010). Many rivers in Asia cross disputed borders, and dam
building often heightens existing tensions. These international tensions will likely build as climate
changethreatensthealreadylimitedsharedresources.
ThemajorityofhydropowerprojectsinChinaandtherestofAsiaaremediumtolargescalereservoir
dams. However, micro hydropowers are expanding in remote areas of the Himalaya where many
communitiesarenotyetelectrified(Dhakal,S.2011).TheHimalayannationsofBhutanandNepalrely
significantly on hydroelectricity generated by the massive change in elevation within their borders.
MuchofthehydropowerproducedinBhutanissoldtoIndia,aneighboringnation.Indeed,thesaleof
hydropowertoIndiageneratesover50percentoftheBhutanesegrossgovernmentrevenue.Magistad,
MaryKay.(7July2011).

Figure5.3:Asianhydropowerdependence.Percentoftotalinstalledcapacitydedicatedtohydropower.
Data:USEnergyAdministration,2008

25

AllnationsacrossinAsiaareinterestedindevelopingtheirhydropowerpotentialinordertosupplytheir
growingenergydemands.SomeofthemostsignificantplansforexpansionarealongtheMekongRiver,
which flows through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Vietnam depends on
hydroelectrictoproduceupwardsof70percentofitspowerandneighbouringcountries.Laosplansto
buildmoredamsontheMekongRivertobecomethebatteryofSoutheastAsia(Hirsch,2010).Central
Asiancountriesarealsohopingtosignificantlyexpandtheirhydropowercapacitytosupplyboththeir
own burgeoning electricity needs and to increase national funds by selling hydropower to China and
Pakistan(Peyrouse,S.2007).Nepalappearsdeterminedtoexpandherhydroelectricsector,hopetobe
a battery for North India and Bangladesh, but political instability and regional mistrust is breaking
speedily development. The Chinese already regulate their dams along the Mekong River to produce a
steady amount of electricity, but doing this causes downstream wet season flooding and dry season
watershortages,problemswhichwilllikelybecompoundedbychangesinthemonsoonpattern.(BBC,
2020) Unpredictability, surges in river flows, and water shortages are all linked to climate change
inducedalterationstotheSouthAsianmonsoon.
Asiahasalreadyexperienceddisastersrelatedtoclimatechangewhichareoftencompoundedbypoor
landuse practices. The most recent of extreme weather events is the massive flooding in Thailand
during the fall of 2011. Scientists believe this monsoonal deluge can be linked to climate change (The
Guardian 1 Nov. 2011). The 2010 floods in Pakistan affected over 20 million residents and inundated
62,000squaremilesofthecountry.Scientistshavealsolinkedthesefloodstomonsoonrainsintensified
by climate change (Doyle, A, 2010) Many areas of Southeast Asia receive up to 80 percent of their
annual rainfall during the summer months making the rivers highly variable during the monsoon
season(Reuters, 27 Feb, 2009). Rising temperatures might affect monsoon to arrive later in the year,
lengthening the time between rains and increasing the regions vulnerability to drought, especially
during the summer growing season. Scientists predict that Climate change will certainly have
implicationsfortheviabilityofhydropowerintheregion.
DroughtshavealsoplaguedAsia.Poorwatermanagementcombinedwithclimatechangehasspurned
some of the most severe droughts in the continents history. In 2004, the Yunnan Province of China
underwent one of the worst droughts in years, experiencing 60 percent less rainfall and leaving 8.1
million residents short on drinking water ( Qiu, J.,2010). Almost simultaneously, another heavy
monsoon caused catastrophic flooding in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Vietnam and other areas of China
(TheGuardian,2004).Sincethe1960s,thenumberofoverallrainydayshasdecreasedinChina,while
thenumberofextremeprecipitationeventshasincreased(Qiu,J.2010).Climatechangehascausedthe
temporaldistributionofwaterresourcestobecomemoreunpredictableinAsia(McNally,A.,2009).The
unpredictability and volatility in precipitation across the continent naturally affects hydropower
generation.Thoughitisdifficulttopredictthefutureimpactsofclimatechange,itiscertainthatclimate
changewillsignificantlyaffectAsianotonlybecauseofitsecologicalqualitiesandgeographiclocation,
but also because many Asian nations lack the infrastructure and resources to effectively respond to
crisesspawnedbyclimatechange.

26

The Himalayan glaciers hold the largest store of fresh water outside the Polar Ice Caps. Many of the
rivers on the Asian continent originate in the Himalayas. Steady glacial melt has fed these rivers,
regulating their flow throughout the annual hydrological cycle. However, many of these glaciers are
rapidlymelting,causingyetmorevolatilityintheflowlevelsofriversinAsia.Thoughintensifiedglacial
melt increases the flow level of the rivers they feed, rapid spring melting causes a shortage in late
seasonflows(Ives,M.(2011),whenwaterisoftencriticalforagriculture.DeglaciationintheHimalaya
will also cause rapid growth of glacial lakes, which will increase the likelihood of glacial lake outburst
floods. These devastating and often unexpected floods could wreak havoc on hydroelectric
infrastructure.Thedeglaciationpatternwilldeliverwatertotheriversinsporadicburstsratherthana
steadystreamofflow.Glacialmeltwillcauseinitialoverallincreasedflowfortheriversoriginatinginthe
Himalaya. However, highly variable river flow is not optimal for hydropower, so even though
deglaciation willincrease theflowsat certain periodsoftime,itsvariabilityandunpredictabilitymake
hydropowermorevulnerableonrivers.Somesmallerriversarefedexclusivelybyglacialmelt,andcould
dryupinasfewas50years.Thisnaturallywouldaffectdownstreamhydropower,nottomentionthe
watersupplyofcommunitiesalongsuchrivers.

6.MajorRiverBasinsofNepal
Nepal, a country of mountains and hills and sandwiched between India and China, lies in South Asia.
EightpeaksoutoftenworldshighestmountainpeaksincludingMountEverestareinNepal.Altitudinal
variationrangesfromabout80to8848metersabovesealevel(Figure6.1)frominaspanofonlyabout
200kilometres.

Ecologically Nepal can be divided into lowland, midland and highland regions. Mountains and
hills occupy about 80 % of the total national land (Table 6.1). The elevation differences favored
for a variety of biomes from tropical savannas along the Indian border to montane grasslands
and shrublands and tundra along rock and ice at the highest elevations. These ecological belts run
east-west and are vertically intersected by Nepal's major, north to south flowing river systems.

Figure6.1:RiversystemandNorthSouthTopographicaldifference

27

Table6.1:GeographicregionsofNepal

Source:CSTNepal,1997
Nepalcontainsabout2.27oftheworldswaterresources(DHM,1998).Therearemorethan6000rivers
in Nepal out of which about 54 rivers are each longer than 150 kilometres and 964 rivers are each
longerthan10kilometres(DHM,1998)Thetotallengthofeachstreamexceeds45000Kilometresgiving
drainagedensitytoabout0.3Kmpersq.km.Karmaliinthewest,GandakiintheCentralandKosiinthe
east are three main river basins of Nepal. About 78% of the mountainous part and about 70% of the
Nepalterritoryisdrainedbythesethreerivers.Onlyaverysmallportionofwatershedsoftheserivers
lie in Tibet, China. Mahakali river basin is a sub basin of Karnali river and lies in India and Nepal. The
othermajorsubbasinsthatdonotcontainyearroundsnowcoveredzonesareBabai,Rapti,Bagmati,
Kamala.KankaiandMechirivercatchments.
Broadly, Nepalese catchments fall on three river groups. The group grading is based on the river
dischargeandtheirsources.

6.1FirstGradeRivers
Riversthatareoriginatedfromglacieronicecapedmountainsabovethesnowlinearecategorizedas
thefirstgraderivers.Theseriversareperennialandcarrysufficientflowsinallseasons.Karnaliriverin
thewesternregion,Gandakiriverincentralregion,andKosiriverintheeasternregionaswellastheir
tributarieswhichoriginatefromglaciersarecategorizedasthefirstgraderivers.Kaushiki(Kosi)isalso
calledasSaptakosifromBarahachetraatChatara.SaptameansseveninSanskrit.SevenKosiareTamur,
Arun, Dudh, Tama, Sun, Likhu and Indrawati. Similarly, Gandaki is called as Narayani from Devghat at
Narayanghat. Narayani is also is called Saptagandaki and seven Gandaki are Trishuli, Budhi, Daraudi,
Marhsyandi,Seti,KaliandMyagdi.ModiofKali,andMadiofSetiarealsoothermajortributariesthat
havesourcesinSnowandGlaciers.NarayaniisagainnamedasGandakinIndia.Likewise,Humla,Mugu,
Seti, Tila, Thulo Bheri, Sano Bheri and Bhudiganga are the main tributaries of Karnali river. Karnali is
calledasGhagrainIndia.MahakaliistheborderriverbetweenNepalandIndia.ChameliyaandSurnagad
aretwomajortributariesofMahakalicomingfromNepal.Saryu,GaurigangaandDhauligangaaremajor
tributariescomingfromIndia.MahakaliiscalledasSharadainIndia.

28

6.2SecondGradeRivers
Theyareoriginatedfrom Mahabharat hills. Mahabharathillsfall belowthesnowlinethatiesatabout
5000metersaltitude.Theyalsodonotdryupinthelowflowperiodastheymeetspringandshallow
undergroundwatertables.Mechiriver,Kankairiver,Kamalariver,Bagmatiriver,EastRaptiriver,Tinau
river,WestRaptiriver,Babairiveraresecondgraderivers.WestRaptiriveristhebiggestamomgthem.
East Rapti river basin falls totally in Nepal. Others have their confluence point in India. Roshi Khola (a
tributary of Sunkosi), Trijuga (a tributary of Saptakosi), Andhi Khola and Ridi Khola (tributaries of Kali
Gandaki)lieinthemountainousregionbelow5000meteraltitude.

6.3ThirdGradeRivers
RiversthatareoriginatedfromSiwalikshillsaswellasfromtheTaraiplainaretobeunderstoodasthe
thirdgraderivers.Theseriverscontaineitherverylesswaterinthewinterornosurfaceflowinthedry
period.ExamplesofsuchriversareBangangaatRupandhehi,TilawaatParsa,VangoriandSirsiaatBara,
Manusmara at Sarlahi, Hardinath at Mahotari, Sunsari at Sunsari and so on. They are originating in
SiwaliksandflowthroughTaraiintheplain.
Over 6000 Nepalese rivers, most headwater of snow and glacier fed stream are perennial where as
someofheadwaterofnonsnowfedriversfallonintermittenttype.Mostofriversonlowersiwalikare
ephemeral.Ephemeralriversareriversthatdonotalwaysflow,thatis,theydryupandareseasonal.
How often, and for how long they dry up varies depend on the watershed characteristics and
meteorologicalpatternlikedesertsanddryclimates.Anintermittentriveronlyflowsoccasionallyand
canbedryforseveralyearsatatime.Theseriversarefoundinregionswithlimitedorhighlyvariable
rainfall,orcanoccurbecauseofgeologicconditionssuchashavingahighlypermeableriverbed.

7.HydropowerPotentialinNepal
Having steep gradients, Nepalese rivers, fed by snows possess high hydropower potential. An
assessmentmadebyDr.HarimanShresthaindicatedthatNepalhaveitapotentialof83000MegaWatt.
ButinthepresentcontexthydroelectricitypotentialofNepalcouldexceed.
Nepal had its first hydropower electricity project run in 1911 (1968 B.S. Nepal Era). Pharping
hydroproject, which was the first hydropower project in Nepal located some kilometres south of
Kathmandu had a capacity of 500kilowatt capacity. Since then, Nepal could produce only about 600
Mega Watt (MW) only. Government of Nepal introduced BOOT (Build, Own, Operate and Transfer)
policyforhydropowerdevelopmentsinceyear1950.TillJanuary2010,licensesissuedandapplication
received amounted to more than 60000 MW. The largest capacity project indentified are Mahakali
rivers at Pancheswor (6000 MW) and Karnali River at Chisapani (10500 MW). Hence, hydropower
production of Nepal would bring an economic revolution in Nepal if high dam concept is materialized
with neighboring countries especially with India and Bangladesh. Hydropower projects in Nepal are
dividedintomicro,small,mediumandlarge.ThetotalcapacityoftheprojectsunderNEAandIPPupto
June1,2012issummarizedinTable7.1

29

Table7.1:HydropowerPotentialofNepal(identified1June,2012)
Category

Numberofsites

TotalCapacity(MW)

ConstructionLicenseforGeneration

1to12MW

16

317

ApplicationforConstructionLicenseforGeneration

upto127MW

51

3474

CancelledConstructionLicenseforGeneration

5to14MW

24

SurveyLicenseforGeneration

Below1MW

202

149

1to25MW

178

1099

25to100MW

51

2730

Greaterthan100MW

29

8510

GONReservedSurveyLicenseforGeneration

2to1110MW

42

3456

ApplicationforSurveyLicenseforGeneration

Below1MW

806

682

1to10MW

480

2332

194

20803

CancelledSurveyLicenseforGeneration

upto96MW

41

516

Total

2093

44092

(Source:www.doed.gov.np)

30

Private sectors contribution is 174 MW out of 700 MW of total production of Nepal. Latest updated
informationmadeavailablebyNepalElectricityAuthorityatitsannualreportisgiveninTable7.2below:
Table7.2:Existingpowerplantsrunbyprivatecompanies.

Energydemandisincreasingannually.DemandforecastmadebyNEAisgiveninTable7.3below
Table7.3:LoadForecastforNepal

31

Figure7.1:LoadForecast[Source:NepalElectricityAuthority,AYEARINREVIEW,FISCALYEAR2010/11]

Thesystematiccollectionofhydrologicaldatabeganin196265byUNspecialfundandUSAIDfundfora
feasibility study of hydro power project and hydrological services. Department of hydrology and
meteorologyhasbeenpublishingstreamflowsrecords.Availabilityofwaterandtrendinriverflowsfor
selectedriversSnowfedandnonsnowfedriverispresentedbelow

8.ClimatechangeinNepal
TemperatureandprecipitationobservationhistoryisnotlongenoughtodrawanyconclusioninNepal.
Analysis carried out by some scientists/researchers had assessed climate changes and impacts the
warming was consistent and continuous after themid1970s. Climate change is a matter of global
concern. It is predicted that one degree temperature raise at sea level will correspond to two degree
temperatureraiseinhighaltituderegionlikeHimalaya(IPCC,2001).Spatialvariationoftheannualmean
temperaturetrendanalysisshowedtheincreasingtrendinalmostentirecountryexceptonfewisolated
places (Karmacharya etal, 2007, Practical Action 2009).) The mean temperature of basin has a rising
trendbyabout0.02peryear(Baidyaetal,2008).Theaverageannualrainfallsinthebasinandonoverall
westernregionsofNepalhaveapositivetrend(Baidyaetal,2008).LowerpartofKaligandakibasinarea
from where rain shadow starts and which is the wettest part has an increasing trend in annual
precipitation with the rate of about 0.70 millimeter per decade (Gauchan A. 2010) where as the
32

northern part of the basin which is the lowest precipitation region has been experiencing decreasing
trendinsnowfall.

8.1TrendinChangesinaverageannualmaximumtemperature
Itwasfoundthattheaveragewarminginannualmaximumtemperaturebetween1977and1994was
0.06degreeCelsusperyear(Shresthaetal.(1999).Warmingwasseenmorepronouncedinthehigher
altitude regions of Nepal such as the Middle Mountains and Himalaya, while the warming happened
significantly lower, or even lacked, in the Terai and Siwalik regions. Warming in the winter was more
pronouncedcomparedtootherseason(Table8.1).

Table 8.1 : Regional mean maximum temperature trends for the period 19771994 (degree C/year)

[SourceShresthaetal.1999]

8.2Trendinprecipitation
TheIndianInstituteofTropicalMeteorology(IITM)hadhighresolutionclimatescenariosfortheSouth
AsianregionfromtheregionalclimatemodelPRECIS(HadRM3)foremissionscenariosSRESA2andB2
(RupaKumaretal.2006).Thesescenariosindicateadecreaseinmonsooninthenorthernpartsofthe
countryandincreaseinthesouthernparts(Figure8.1).

33

Figure. 8.1: Projections of changes in monsoon precipitation (top) and average annual temperature
(bottom)bytheendofthetwentyfirstcenturyforemissionscenarioSRESA2(left)andB2(right)(Rupa
Kumaretal.2006)
Nepalmaygetwarmingonaverageby3.54degreeCelsiusinthosescenariosattheendofthecentury.
TheIPCCAR4hasindicatedthatthewarminginSouthAsiawouldbeatleast24degreeCelsiusbythe
endofthecentury(Christensenetal.2007).Thewarmingratesfollowtheelevationgradientinthe
Himalayanregion(e.g.,Bhutan,Nepal,andHimachalPradesh).TheprojectionforNepalwasalsomade
byselectingtheSRESB2scenariobyusingtheMAGICC/SCENGENmodel(Agrawalaetal.2003).This
analysis also showed somewhat larger warming in winter months than the summer months., The
projectedwarmingabovethebaselineaverage(19611990)is1.2degreeCelsiusfor2030,1.7degree
Celsiusfor2050and3.0degreeCelsiusfor2100(Table8.2).
Table8.2:GCMEstimatesfortemperatureandprecipitationchangesinNepal

(Source:Agrawalaetal.2003)
34

Trendanalysisonobserveddatarainfallandtemperaturewasperformed.Itwasconfirmedthatthere
isarisingtrendoftemperatureinNepal.Annualrateoftemperaturerisewasfoundtobeabout0.41oC
perdecade.Trendonprecipitationwasdecreasingattherateof9.8mm/decadeinthemonthofApril
andMaythough,arisingtrendofprecipitationwasobservedduringmonsoonseasons.
Trends of monsoon onset and withdrawal from 21 years of data show that monsoon season is
elongatinginboththeends.Onsetwilloccur earlierby71%ofadayperannumandwithdrawalwill
retreat by about 15 % of a day per annum. Although this trend appears to be elongating monsoon
periodforlong,itisnotlikelytohappenduetochangesofseasons.Incaseoftrendofwithdrawalof
monsoonitisnotsodistinctwhereastrendofmonsoononsetisquitedistinct.

8.3ClimatechangeinducedtrendinRainfallandTemperature
8.3.1Rainfall
As the interannual variation of rainfall is so large, no significant trend like in temperature could be
observed.However,thegeneraltendencytowardsincreasingordecreasingtrendismoreimportantin
rainfall.RainfalltrendanalysisshowedthepositivetrendinmostofEastern,Central,WesternandFar
western Development Regions in annual rainfall. However, most of the Midwestern Development
Regionshowedthedecreasingannualrainfalltrend.TheregioninandaroundDolakhadistrictobserved
thelargestdecreasingtrendofupto40mm/year(Figure9.1).Trendanalysisofpremonsoonrainfall
showedincreasingtrendinmostoftheEastern,CentralandWesternDevelopmentRegions,whileMid
westernandFarwesternDevelopmentRegionsshowedthedecreasingtrend(Figure9.2).Thehighest
increasingtrendforthepremonsoonrainfallwasobservedinandaroundMyagdiandKaskidistrictsin
the Western Development Region; Sindhupalchowk district in the Central Development Region and
SankhuwasabhaintheEasternDevelopmentRegion,howeversomesmallpocketareasintheseregions
showed the decreasing trend e.g., Dhankuta, Dolakha, Ramechhap and Tanahun with the largest
decreasingtrendinthenorthwesternpartsofthecountry.Monsoonseasonrainfallwasobservedtobe
mainlyincreasingintheEastern,Central,WesternandFarwesternDevelopmentRegionswhilemostof
the areas in Midwestern Development region showed the decreasing trend the highest trend in
Dolakha and Solukhumbu districts (Figure 9.3). Monsoon season contributes about 80 % of the total
annualrainfall.Therainfalltrendinpostmonsoonseasonshowedtheincreasingtrendinmostofthe
MidwesternDevelopmentRegionandthesouthernpartsofEastern,CentralandWesternDevelopment
RegionswhileFarwesternDevelopmentRegionandmostofthenorthernpartsofthecountryobserved
thedecreasingtrend(Figure9.4).WiththehighestincreasingtrendinSankhuwasabha,Taplejungand
Acchamdistricts,winterseasonrainfallshowedincreasingrainfalltrendalmostovertheentirecountry.
However,someareasinthenorthernpartsofMidwesternandEasternDevelopmentRegionsandsome
isolated small pocket areas here and there showed increasing trend (Figure 9.5). Though seasonal
rainfallislessinsouthernparts;SiwalikandtheTerai,thehighest24hourrainfallisrecordedinthese
parts (Figure 8.6). The highest extreme rainfall was found mainly in the foothills of Mahabharat and

35

Siwalik in the Central Development and Western Development regions. These regions are therefore
pronetoflashfloodandinundation.

30

40

30

8
7

30

6
20

29

29

5
4

10

3
0

28

28

2
1

-10

0
-20

27

-1

27

-2

-30

-3

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

-40

88

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

-4

88

Figure8.1:Annualrainfall(mm/year)trendFigure8.2:Premonsoonrainfall(mm/year)trend

30

30

30

3
20

29

29

10

0
0

28

-1

28

-2

-10

-3

27
-20

-4

27
-5
-30

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

-6
-35

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

-7

88

Figure8.3:Monsoonrainfall(mm/year)trendFigure8.4:Postmonsoonrainfall(mm/year)trend

450

30

2.8

30

400

2.4
2

29

350

29

1.6

300

1.2

250

28

0.8

28

200
0.4

150
0

27

27
100

-0.4

50

-0.8

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

-1.2

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

Figure8.5:Winterrainfall(mm/year)trend

Figure8.6:24hourshighestrainfall(mm)

36

8.3.2FutureProjectiononRainfalltrend

Precipitation projection under high (A1), medium (A1B) and low (B1) GHG emission scenarios for 20s
(20102030),50s(20402060),80s(20702090)showedincreasedprecipitationintheentireNepal.
B1Scenario
For this scenario, the ensemble averaged precipitation change shows more or less consistent pattern
(Figure9.7)forallthreefutureperiods1920,1950,and1980.Precipitationisprojectedtoincreasein
theentireNepalduringalltimespan(20s,50'sand80's).Largerincreaseinprecipitationisprojected
over Western Region with up to 60 mm and 80 mm increase per annum respectively during 20's and
50s. Since high precipitation and flood/ landslide are directly related, any significant increase in
precipitation as projected over these areas will increase the likelihood of flood and other related
hazards.

Figure8.7:MeanannualChangeinprecipitation(inmillimeter)forB1scenario(a)2020's(b)
2050's(c)2080's

37

A1BScenario
The ensemble averaged precipitation change shows more or less consistent pattern compared to B1
scenario (Figure 8.8) for all three future periods. Precipitation is projected to increase in the entire
Nepalduringalltimespans.LargestincreaseinprecipitationisprojectedoverWesternRegionupto70
mmduring20s,140mmoverEastern,CentralandWesternRegionsduring50sandupto250mmin
EasternRegionduring50s(Figure8.8).

Figure8.8:MeanannualChangeinprecipitation(inmillimeter)forA1Bscenario(a)
2020's(b)2050's(c)2080's

38

A2Scenario
The ensemble averaged precipitation change shows more or less consistent pattern (Figure 8.9)
compared to previous two scenarios for all three future periods but there is subtle variation for 20's.
Precipitationisprojectedtodecreasebyupto20mmoverFarWesternRegionandsouthernpartsof
EasternRegion.Patternfor50'sand80'squiteconsistentforA2scenarioincomparisontoB1andA1B
scenariowithincreaseupto100mmand200mmoverEasternRegionrespectively(Figure8.9)

Figure8.9:MeanannualChangeinprecipitation(inmillimeter)forA2scenario(a)2020's(b)2050's(c)
2080's
Table 8.3 shows the projected change for temperature and precipitation under different scenario
averagedoverCentralHimalayanregionthatcoversNepalandadjacentareas.Incaseoftemperature
theprojectedincreaseisslightlyhigherthanthataveragedoverSouthAsia.Itrangesfrom1.1Cto1.3C
in 2020's, 1.8C to 2.5C in 2050's and 2.5C to 4.2C in 2080's among the three scenario. In case of
precipitationtheprojectedchangesareinlinewiththataverageoverSouthAsia.

39

Table 8.3: Projected change for temperature and precipitation under different scenario averaged over
CentralHimalayanregion

9.CLIMATEChangeimpactinRiverflowspatterninNepal
9.1RiverFlowsPattern
Thekeyelementsforhydropowerprojectaretheflowavailableforitsuse.Anychangeinflowscaused
changesintheproductionofelectricity.ThesystematiccollectionofHydrologicaldatabeganin196265
by UN special fund and USAID fund for a feasibility study of hydro power project and hydrological
services. Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has been publishing stream flows records since
1963/64. Based on published data, trend in flows trend in selected rivers is determined (Figure 10.1).
Selected rivers are of two categories Snowfed and nonsnow fed river. Non snow fed category are
basicallyrainfedriverswhosesourcesliesaround3000meters.

Figure9.1:Locationofthreemajorriverssystem,Kosi,NarayaniandKarnali

40

Trendinannualdischargeandannualfluctuationinmeanannualflowswasassessedondatapublished
by DHM. There is as light positive trend i.e. increasing trend in Koshi river flows. But this trend is
insignificant compared to the percent difference in annual mean to the long term mean. Koshi flows
found appreciable increased after 1998/99 and in some years difference reaches to 30 percent
increased. Tributaries flows also have similar nature but amount deviation and trend is different.
DeviationinTamurcrossed50percentinparticularwetyear(Figure)
Narayaniriverbasinshowedaslightincreaseinannualflows.Thepercentdifferenceisrelativelylower
than Koshi basin. In most of the year, difference fall below 10 percent. Differences in annual mean is
about 20 percent. Wet and dry year flows. Chepe river, a tributary of Marsyangdi river within the
Narayanibasinalsoshowedanincreasingtrend.ThereispositivetrendinKarnaliriverflows.Thisriver
flow is relatively stable compared to Koshi and Narayani. Difference in annual means is about 20
percent.
Similarly,trendinannualmeanflowsofnonsnowfedriversKankai,Bagmati,lotherManahari,West
Rapt and Babi ( Figure also do not show any significant trend. However, there are significant trend
monthlyflows.Winterflowsareindecreasingtrendwhereasannualextremesareincreasingrepresent
partlytheresultofwarmingtrendintheregionduetoclimatechanges.
Koshiriver:CombinationofMonsoonandSnowfedriversinEasternRegion

Figure9.2:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofKosiFigure9.3:AnnualflowsdeviationinKosi

41

Tamurriver:

Figure9.4TrendinmeanannualdischargeofTamurFigure9.5:AnnualflowsdeviationinTamur

Narayani:CombinationofMonsoonandSnowfedriversinCentralRegion

Figure9.6:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofofNarayaniFigure9.7:AnnualflowsdeviationinNarayani

Cheperiver

Figure9.8:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofChepeFigure9.9:AnnualflowsdeviationinChepe

42

Karnaliriver:CombinationofMonsoonandSnowfedriversinWesternRegion

Figure9.10:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofKarnaliFigure9.11:AnnualflowsdeviationinKarnali

Chameliariver

Figure9.12:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofChameliaFigure9.13:AnnualflowsdeviationinChamelia

43

Kankairiver:ANonsnowfedriverininKosiMechibasininEasternNepal

Figure9.14:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofKankaiFigure9.15:AnnualflowsdeviationinKankai

Bagmatiriver:ANonsnowfedriverinCentralNepal

Figure9.16:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofBagmatiFigure9.17:AnnualflowsdeviationinBagmati

44

LotherandManahari:ANonsnowfedriverinCentralRegion

Figure9.18:Trendinmeanannualdischarge
ofLotharandManahaririver

Figure9.19:Percentdifferenceinmeanannual
flowswithlongtermofLotharandManahari
i

WestRapti:ANonsnowfedriverinKarnaliandRaptibasininWesternNepal

Figure9.20:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofWRaptiFigure9.21:AnnualflowsdeviationinWRapti

45

Babai:ANonsnowfedriverinKarnaliandRaptibasininWestenNepal

Figure9.22:TrendinmeanannualdischargeofBagmatiFigure9.23:AnnualflowsdeviationinBagmati

9.2TheeffectofclimatechangeinNepaleseriverflows
Theeffectofrecentclimatechangesonriverflowsarenotyetdoneextensively.Thegeneralperception
ismadeontrendsinthreecategoriesaslargeoutletrivers,southernriversandsnowfedrivers.Among
the large rivers, Karnali and Sapta Koshi show a decreasing trend, Narayani (Kali Gandaki), shows an
increasingtrend.Southernriversdonotshowanytrend.Allofthethreesnowfedriversexaminedhere
show a declining trend in discharge. Preliminary trend analysis on observed records indicated that
dischargetrendisneitherconsistentnorsignificantinmagnitude.Itcouldbeduetoshortrecordlengths
and high interannual variability in discharge data. Another study indicated that the number of flood
daysandconsecutivedaysoffloodeventsappearedtobeincreasing(ShresthaandShrestha2003).
TheHimalayanRiversarevulnerabletoclimatechange.Thedegreeofsensitivitymayvaryamongthe
riversystems.Themagnitudesofsnowmeltfloodsaredeterminedbythevolumeofsnow,therateat
whichthesnowmeltsandtheamountofrainthatfallsduringthemeltperiod.Thepeakmeltingseason
in the Himalayas coincides with the summer monsoon rainfall, which contribute to increased summer
runoff and flood disasters (IPCC, 2001b, p.565). The increase in temperature would shift the snowline
upward,whichreducesthecapacityofnaturalreservoir.
The annual runoff of the Alkananda River in the western Himalayas increased by 2.8% yr1 for 1980
2000,whereasthatofKaliGandakiRiverinNepalHimalayasincreasedbyabout1%annuallyfor1964
2000(Shrestha,2005).ArunoffsensitivityanalysisbyMirzaandDixit(1997)showedthata2Crisein
temperaturewouldcausea4%decreaseinrunoff,whilea5Criseintemperatureand10%decreasein
precipitation would cause a 41% decrease in the runoff of the Ganges River near New Delhi. As the
snow and glacier volume gets smaller and the volume of meltwater reduces, dry season flows will
declinetowellbelowpresentlevels(Shrestha,2005,p.77).Riverdischargeisinfluencedbyclimate,land
cover and human activities, so it is difficult to disaggregate the climatic impact from nonclimatic
impactsonriverdischarge.However,riverdischargeanalysisfor19471994intheKosiBasinineastern
Nepalshowedadecreasingtrendparticularlyduringthelowflowseason.
46

Sensitivityanalysisofriverrunoffinthesamebasinshowedthattherunoffincreasewashigherthanthe
precipitationincreaseassumingtemperatureconstantandanincreaseintemperatureof4Cassuming
precipitation constant would cause a decrease in runoff by two to 8 percent (Sharma et al., 2000b,
p.139). Gurung (1997, p.37) has revealed that there will be decrease in runoff in dry seasons and
increase in runoff in monsoon season under the doubled CO2scenario using the Canadian Climate
CentreModel(CCCM)andGeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory(GFDL)models
The assessment made on Upper Kaligandaki river basin. The basin also lacks longtern data on stream
flows. The important of the basin lies in the fact that streams within the basins get water sources as
snow and glacial melt. The basin lies in the rain shadow area where only about 150 to 250 mm of
precipitation is reported from observed record. An assessment indicated that the snow melt
contribution(Figure9.24,Figure9.25)couldreachupto40%(BhusalJK&SagarP,2011).Theworst
scenarios as per the present projection are that future flow characteristics of snow fed rivers could
appeartobelikethatofpresentpatternofnonsnowfedrivers.Andthereductioninriverflowsinthe
basin could be up to 40 % if all snow dries up. However, the situation would be more miserable if
temporalandspatialvariationsbecomewiderduetoclimatechangesinfuture.

Figure9.24:AnnualrunoffandrainfallvolumeFigure9.25:Flowrecessioncurves

10.ClimateChangeasitaffectsinHydropowerProduction
Theslightincreaseintemperaturepairedwithanincreaseinprecipitationsuggeststhattheevaporation
ratesoftheregionwilldecreaseslightly.Theoverallincreaseinprecipitationwillprovidemorewaterto
the rivers, increasing the potential for hydropower generation. The increasing temperature in the
Himalayaswillincreasetheglacialmeltthatfeedstherivers,increasingdischargeforatleastthenext
severaldecades.However,oncetheseglaciershavemelted,therewillbeadeclineinriversdischarge.
South Asias climate and hydrological cycles are significantly impacted by the monsoon, which has
alreadybeenalteredbyclimatechange(ScienceDaily,2009).Themonsoondeliversaround75percent
oftheregionsprecipitationduringroughlythreemonths.Thebeginningofthemonsoonispredictedto
arrivelaterintheyear,makingthedryseasonlongerandincreasingthenumberofdroughts(Science
47

Daily, 2009). Similarly, there will be an increase in the severity of rainfall events as well as storms,
causing overall increased temporal variability in water supply (McNally, A. 2009). The disparate
distribution of precipitation timing in this area causes significant variations in the Mekong Rivers
discharge. All of these various climate change impacts are interconnected and have significant
repercussionsforhydropower.Asclimate changeimpactsintensify,thisvariationwill beexacerbated,
makingitmoredifficultforhydropowerfacilitiesalongtheMekongRivertopredictriverdischargeand
togenerateanevensupplyofpower.

10.1HydropowerandImpactofClimateinSnowandGlacialareas
Agrawalaetal(2003)hasalsoidentifiedtwocriticalimpactsonwaterresourcesinNepalduetoclimate
changeGLOFsandvariabilityofriverrunoff.Theseposedsignificantimpactsnotonlyonbutalsoon
rural livelihoods and agriculture but also on hydropower. Microhydro, for example, serves multiple
rural development objectives. They have indicated that the water storage might be a potential
adaptation to response to increased variability in streamflow and reduced dry season flows for
sustainabilityofforecastedenergyoutputfromhydroprojects.Butthereisalsoariskofenvironmental
objectives that might conflict with large storage projects. Dams could potentially exacerbate
vulnerabilitytoanotherpotentialimpactifbreached.Transboundaryorregionaldimensiontocertain
impactsalsodemandsneedforregionalcoordinatedstrategiestocopewithimpactsofclimatechange.
Thescoringforfollowingfourfactorsismade.Inrankingtherisksfromclimatechange,wasconsidered,
Impactsthataremostcertainarerankedasthemostsevere,andmostlikelytobecomesevereinthe
firsthalfofthe21stcenturyarerankedthehighest.Theresults(Agrawalaetal,2003)ofthisanalysis
aresummarizedinTable10.1

Table10.1:.PriorityrankingofclimatechangeimpactsforNepal

AstudybyWWF(2009)haspredictedclimatechangeresponsestoKoshiRiveranditsmajortributaries.
Theenergybudgetmodelsimulationsonthesnowmeltinconjunctionwithcomprehensivecatchment
modelwereappliedinKoshibasinthathassignificantsnowandglaciercoverage.Iceablationfromthe
debris covered glacier area has a remarkable influence over the river discharge. The results of
simulations showed significant impact on stream flows. The contribution of snow and glacier melt
dischargetoannualflowRiverflowatastationChatara,fromwhereriverentersplainareaofNepal
48

Tarai,isabout8.46%(WWF2009)Amaximummonthlycontributionof22.52%isinMayandaminimum
monthly contribution of 1.86% is in January. 2.51% out of total 8.46% snow and glacier melt
contributionisfromDudhKoshisubbasin(WWF2009).Thisbasinhasmaximumcontributiontoannual
flowatChatara.ArunandTamorbasinsaretwoothermajortributaries,Tamor,ArunandDhudhaKosi
share 84% Kosi flow at Chatara. Indrawati subbasin has minimum contribution to annual flow at
Chatara(0.15%outoftotal8.46%).(WWF2009).Sensitivitytestofsnowandglaciermeltcontribution
wascarriedoutforincreaseinairtemperaturesof0.020C,0.040C,0.080Cand0.120C.Theresultsofthe
simulationforthesescenariosarepresentedinTable10.2.
Table10.2:Annualsnowandglaciermeltcontribution(in%)forincreasedtemperaturescenarios
IncreaseinTemperature(ToC)
StationName
0.00

0.02

0.04

0.08

0.12

3.66

3.66

3.67

3.68

3.72

Sunkoshi(Dolalghat) 3.56

3.57

3.59

3.61

3.66

Busti

7.55

7.57

7.58

7.61

7.69

Khurkot

3.80

3.81

3.82

3.84

3.89

Sangutar

8.96

8.98

9.03

9.10

9.17

Rabuwabazar

16.37

16.39

16.49

16.58

16.63

Kampughat

7.85

7.86

7.90

7.95

8.00

Uwagaon

14.92

14.98

15.08

15.32

15.45

Turkeghat

9.45

9.48

9.55

9.71

9.80

Majhitar

17.91

17.94

18.03

18.15

18.21

Mulghat

8.84

8.86

8.91

8.97

9.01

Chatara

8.46

8.48

8.53

8.61

8.66

Indrawati
(Dolalghat)

(Source:WWF2009)

49

Table 10.3: Contribution (%) of glacierized subwatersheds of each sub basins to the total flow at
downstreamstations
Subbasins
Indrawati
StationName

Indrawati
(Dolalghat)

monthly
max

28.80

min

1.83

annual

3.66

max
Sunkoshi
(Dolalghat)

Sunkoshi

min

2.36

5.17

min

0.30

0.78

1.34

annual

0.46

1.25

2.09

1.64

3.93

74.01

3.93

16.37

16.37
24.40

max

0.96

2.19

4.32

1.30

17.77

min

0.20

0.53

0.90

0.14

0.97

annual

0.30

0.80

1.33

0.37

5.05

50

1.64
8.96

74.01

2.43

36.68

8.96

5.17

3.80
36.68

2.36

9.99

5.80

annual

17.78

max

Kampughat

7.55

3.11

1.83

7.55
1.28

min

17.78

annual

Rabuwabazar

3.56

max

min

7.70

max
Sangutar

3.56

Overall
Contribution

3.66

annual

Khurkot

Arun Tamor

28.80

max
min

Dudh
koshi

7.70

annual

Busti

Tama
Likhu
koshi

2.95
7.85

max
Uwagaon

Turkeghat

min

25.88

0.90

14.92

max

19.15

19.15

min

0.93

9.45

0.93
9.45

31.97

31.97

2.73

2.73

annual

17.91

17.91

max

26.40

26.40

1.80

1.80

8.84

8.84

min

min

annual

Chatara

0.90

14.92

max

Mulghat

annual

annual

Majhitar

25.88

max

0.35

0.81

1.61

0.48

8.54

4.68

7.28

22.52

min

0.08

0.24

0.38

0.06

0.37

0.38

0.37

1.86

annual

0.15

0.40

0.66

0.19

2.51

2.20

2.36

8.46

(Source:WWF2009)
Hydropowerareranksignificantlyhigherthananyothersectorbecauseriverflowsaredirectlyrelated
to rising temperatures that have already been observed, and are projected (with high confidence) to
increase further over the coming decades. This enhances glacier retreat that in turn causes greater
variabilityinstreamflows.Darksideofglaciallakeoutburstfloodsisthatfloodsposesignificantriskto
hydropowerfacilities,andalsotootherinfrastructureandhumansettlements.
Other climate induced risks to water resources and hydropower facilities include: flooding, landslides,
andsedimentationfrommoreintenseprecipitationevents(particularlyduringthemonsoon),aswellas
greaterunreliabilityofdryseasonflowsthatposespotentiallyseriousriskstowaterandenergysupplies
intheleanseason.
Intense precipitation events, increased floods, landslides, and sedimentation (particularly during the
monsoon) are expected to result from climate change. Hydropower infrastructure and facilities are at
risk. Hydroelectric plants are highly dependent on predictable runoff patterns, Greater unreliability of
dryseasonflows,inparticular,posespotentiallyseriousriskstohydroelectricityenergyproductionin

51

theleanseason.Inaddition,uncertaintiesinclimateprojectionsandlackofreliablehydrologicalrecords
areaconstraintforeffectiveplanningandoperationofahydropower..

10.2ConsequenceofClimateChangetoInfrastructure
AnearlycompletedNamcheHydropowerProjectwaswashedawaybyDigTshoGlacierLakeoutburst
flooded on 4 August 1985 in the Langmoche valley, Khumbu (Ives 1986; Yamada 1998). The lake,
crescentinshape,wasdammedbya50mhighterminalmoraine.TheGLOFwascausedbydetachment
ofalargeicemassfromtheupperportionoftheLangmocheglacierduringclearweatherconditionin
July. The ice mass overran the glacier and splashed into lake which was already full. Since then,
GovernmentofNepal(GON)hasconsideredGLOFsasathreattothedevelopmentofwaterresourcesof
thecountryandhasrealizedthenecessitytocarryoutstudiesonglaciersandGLOFs.
Anpreliminaryinvestigationsaidthatthereare2,315glacierlakesofdifferentsizesinNepalandthe
total area of which is 75 km2. (ICIMOD/UNEP2001). Due to warming climate, the melting process is
accelerated. Retreated glacier area has a large void as the depression that was earlier occupied by
glacial ice. The moraine walls that act as dams are structurally weak and unstable and undergo
constantchangesduetoslopefailures,slumping,etc.andareindangerofcatastrophicfailure,
causingglacierlakeoutburstfloods(GLOFs).
Morainedamdobreakasselfdestructionorbytriggingactionofsomeexternalforces.Selfdestruction
iscausedbythefailureofthedamslopeandseepagefromthenaturaldrainagenetworkofthedamA
hugedisplacementwavegeneratedbyrockslideorsnow/iceavalanchefromglacierterminusintothe
lakemaycausethewatertoovertopthemoraines,createalargebreachandeventuallycausethedam
failure (Ives 1986). Earthquakes may also be one of the factors triggering dam to break, however
breakingalsodependsonitsmagnitude,locationandcharacteristicsoflakes.
A GLOF cause devastating consequences for riparian communities, hydropower stations and other
infrastructure.SomepastdisastrousGLOFeventsinNepalareshowninTable10.4below.

52

Table10.4:ListofGLOFeventsrecordedinNepal

Date
450Yearsago
August,1935
21September,1964
1964
1964
1968
1969
1970
rd
3 September,1977
23
11
27
4

rd
th
th

th

RiverBasin
SetiKhola
SunKoshi
Arun
SunKoshi
Trishuli
Arun
Arun
Arun
DudhKoshi

NameofLake
Machhapuchchhare
Taraco,Tibet
Gelaipco,Tibet
Zhangzangbo,Tibet
Longda,Tibet
Ayaco,Tibet
Ayaco,Tibet
Ayaco,Tibet
Nare,Tibet

June,1980

Tamur

Nagmapokhri,Nepal

July,1981

SunKoshi

Zhangzagbo,Tibet

August,1982

Arun

Jinco,Tibet

DudhKoshi

DigTsho,Nepal

TamoKoshi

Chubung,Nepal

DudhKoshi

SabaiTsho,Nepal

August,1985
th
12 July,1991
rd
3 September,1998

In the past few decades, global climate change has had a significant impact on the high mountain
environment:snow,glacierandpermafrostareespeciallysensitivetochangesinatmosphericcondition
becauseoftheirproximitytomeltingconditions.Theformationandgrowthofglacierlakesislinkedto
deglaciationresultingtheappearanceofponds.Duetowarmingclimate,pondsgrowbiggerandmerge.
Thisrelationshipbetween climatechangeanditsimpactoversupraglacierandGLOFwillbeexplicitly
studiedintheproposedareabytakingpastdata.

11.Conclusions,AdaptationsandPolicyRecommendations
Himalayan region is severely affected by global warming (I1PCC 2007). Whether the present rate of
temperaturerisewillcontinueorwillshowsomediscrepancies/stabilityinfutureremaintobeverified.
The degree of climate variability that is described by the differences between longterm statistics of
meteorological elements calculated for different periods is the measure of climate change. There are
variations
in predictions. The variation in model outputs is believed due to the smaller hydrometereological
observation network and short data series (Soito, J. L., Freitas D. S. 2011). However, the rise in
53

temperaturecannotbeexpectedtobelinearoverthetime.Theglobalcrytoreducegreenhousegases
toacertainlevelsisexpectedtoplacetheriskatadaptablelimit.
The effect of climate changes, though not exactly quantified, is visualized to be heterogeneous over
different ecological zones of Nepal. Certain areas especially higher Himalayas of Nepal are becoming
increasinglysusceptibletohydrologicaltransformationscausedbyclimatechange.Researchonclimate,
climatechangeanditsimpactsondifferentsectorsareverylimitedinNepal.Observedclimatedataare
notsufficienttocarryoutintensiveresearch.Commonunderstandingofclimatechangeisthechangein
rainfall and temperature pattern in specific areas which impinge significantly on the agricultural
systems,waterresources,biodiversity,humanhealth,etc.Inspiteofinadequatedata,fewresearches
have been carried out on rainfall and temperature pattern. Analysis (Shrestha et al, 1999, 2010,
ShresthaandAryal,2010,ShresthaKL,2003,etc.)suggestschangesinprecipitationandtemperature
pattern.Thechangeistimeandspacedependent.Changingpatternoftemperatureismorevisibleand
clearthanprecipitation.
Changes in evaporation rates, annual river discharge amounts, seasonal and temporal offsets of
hydrological patterns, extreme precipitation events, and increased glacial melt are the most pertinent
climatechangeeffectsthatwillimpacthydroelectricgeneration.Theseimpactsallaffecteachotherand
cannot solely be viewed in isolation. Some of these changes will cause an increase of hydropower
generation, while others have the potential to decrease generation. A hydropower facility requires a
relatively reliable water source to generate electricity. The uncertainty inherent to modelling future
trends make it very difficult to determine the precise effect on climate change that will have on
hydroelectricproduction.However,evenwiththisuncertainty,Nepalstillneedtoplanforfutureenergy
demands.
Some useful initiation on assessing the trends in river flows added by global and local changes in
climates is carried out for Nepal. There is virtually neither positive trend ie increasing trend nor
decreasingtrendinKoshiriverflows.Butthereissignificantdifferenceinannualmeantothelongterm
meanannualflows.Koshiflowsfoundappreciableincreasedafter1998/99andinsomeyearsdifference
reachesto30percentincreased.Tributariesflowsalsohavesimilarnaturebutamountdeviationand
trend is different. Flow deviated from long term mean by 50 percent about in Tamur river. The
variability in stream flows of two other basins, Karnali, Narayani river basin also do not differ
significantly.IncaseofNarayaniriverbasin,differencefallbelow10percentinmostoftheyearwereas
some wet years show about 20 percent. It has been observed that monthly mean fluctuation is
noticeable in other snow fed rivers hydrograph. The reason could be both changes in watershed
morphologyandglobalwarming.
There is about 8.46 % contribution to annual flow from snow and glacier melt, a maximum monthly
contributionof22.52%inMayandaminimummonthlycontributionof1.86%inJanuaryinKoshiRiver
inNepal(WWF2009).Anassessmentindicatedthatthesnowmeltcontributioncouldreachupto40%.
Theworstscenariosasperthepresentprojectionarethatfutureflowcharacteristicsofsnowfedrivers
couldappeartobelikethatofpresentpatternofnonsnowfedrivers(BhusalJk&SagarP,2011).

54

Nepal has to make large investments to increase the hydro electricity. So a developer will have to
carefully consider how climate change will impact hydropower production to determine what role, if
any,hydropowershouldplayintheirenergyfutures.
Changesinfutureelectricproductiondependnotonlyonthetypeandseverityofclimatealterations,
butalsoonthefacilitysstructuralcharacteristics.Vulnerabilitiestoclimatechangedependonvariety
oftypesandscalesofhydropowerfacilities.Whilelargescalereservoirdamsareabletoregulateflow,
produce electricityasdesired.Reservoirsizeisimportanttoevaporationaswell,assmallerreservoirs
will be more at risk to losing greater proportions of their volume. Therefore, decisionmakers can
acquire a basic understanding of how climate change may impact certain areas, and which types of
hydropower facilities are least vulnerable to said effects. Similiarly, hyrdro industries will require
developingmoreflexibleapproachestomanagingreservoirs(SoitoandFreitas,2011).
ItisimperativetounderstandhowclimatechangewillimpacthydroelectricproductiontomeetNepals
growingenergydemandsfromhydropower.Hydropowerisoftendevelopedasameansofgenerating
electricitythatreducesemissionsthatcontributetoclimatechange.
BenBlackshearetal(2011)createdanillustratedframeworkthatshowsrelativechangesingeneration
capacity due to climate change. Climate change effects are located along the xaxis and the type and
characteristicsofhydropowerschemesalongtheyaxis(Figure4.2).Discharge,temporalvariability,and
glacial melt do not apply to pure pumped storage, which is not connected to a river network. Only
evaporationisapplicabletoreservoirsurfaceareatovolumeratio(SA:Vol).]

Globalwarminghasbeenaddingseverityofglacialmeltrelatedfloodaswellasdecreasingleanperiod
flows.Althoughglacialmeltwatersproportionofthetotalflowdecreaseswithgreaterdistancefrom
glaciersduetoinputfromotherrunoffwithinthebasin,itisimportanttorecognizethecontributionof
glacierstodownstreamflowwhenconsideringtheimpactsofclimatechange.Climatechangehasbeen
inducing decreasing trend on freshwater availability not only in Nepal but also in Central, South, East
and Southeast Asia, and even in the large river basins.. Regions with distinct seasonal rain cycles and
snowmelt seasons typically experience fluctuations in generation due to precipitations influence on
flow. The seasonality of precipitation causes variability in hydroelectric generation. The other factors
determiningtheresponsestoclimatechangeimpactsonhydropowergenerationarepolitical,socialand
economicfactors,uniquetotheregion
Thoughitisdifficulttopredictthefutureimpactsofclimatechange,itiscertainthatclimatechangewill
significantly affect ecological qualities of Nepal. Nepal lacks the infrastructure and resources to
effectivelyrespondtocrisesspawned byclimatechange.Soitisrecommendedtoaddressthewater
resources sector as a) by studying the impacts of climate variability and Climate Change on river flow
regimesandonthegroundwatertableaswellassnowcoveredareainNepal,b)byidentifynewflood
levelsviahydrologicalandhydraulicmodeling,c)bydevelopingtheeffectivemeasurestomanageand
55

mitigate water induced disasters like Glofs, cloud burst induced floods etc. and , d) by develop
appropriate guidelines for sustainable management of watersheds and water conservation
management.

Adaptationandpolicyrecommendation
Water Resources Strategy of Government of Nepal (2002) had developed an ambitious action plan to
increasehydropowerfrom527MWto22,000MW(WECS,2002).Thestrategyhasignoredtheriverflow
variabilityduetoclimatechanges.Buttheprojectiononthedepletionofriverflowsthatarelikelytobe
face due to Climate Change, thought not yet reliably quantified, have to be considered for the
development hydropower in Nepal. Flow duration curves are affected from temporal variability in
precipitation. The nature of snow fed rivers and nonsnow fed rivers have different responses to
warming trends. Based on flow patterns, basin responses to monsoon rainfall as well as from the
climaticfeatures(WECS/DHMN,1996),sevenhydrologicalzonesareconsideredasfollows.

MountainCatchments,
HillstothenorthoftheMahabharatRange,riversrisingnorthoftheSiwaliks,theinnerTerai,
Pokhara,Nuwakot,Kathmandu,theSunKoshitributaries,
LowerTamurValley,
RiverdrainingtheMahabharatRange,
KankaiMaiBasin;and
RiversdrainingfromtheChuriaRangetotheTerai

The permanent snowline of the Himalayan region lies close to the 5000 meter elevation. Table 12
presents the areas of major river basins lying in between 5000 m and 5500 m elevation at 100 m
intervals(WECS,2002).Thedatapresentedinthetableshowsthatabout23%ofthebasinareasofthe
Himalayanwatersheds(excludingtheTerai)liesabove5000melevation.
Table11.1:TemperatureSensitiveGlaciatedAreasoftheMajorRiverBasinsinNepal.

56

Considering the average environmental lapse rate of 6.5o C /km, almost 20 % of the glaciated area
above5000mislikelytobesnowandglacierfreeareaatanincreaseofairtemperatureby1oC.Two
degreecentigraderiseintemperaturecanleadalossofalmost40%ofthearea.Similarly,3oCand4oC
riseintemperaturecanresultinthelossof58%and70%ofsnowandglacierareasrespectively.Such
changesinglacierareasarelikelytocontributetothedevelopmentofglacierlakesincreasingpotential
GLOFhazards.Erosionandsedimenttransportpatternofsedimentisdirectlyinfluencedbythepattern
ofchangesinprecipitationandrunoff.
Thefollowingactivitiescanbepromotedasadaptivemeasuresfortheunderstandingofwaterresources
systemandsustainabledevelopmentofHydropower.

Importtechnologyfromabroadresearchandmodify,ifnecessarytosuittoNepal.
Hydropowersectoraredirectlylinkedwithhydrology.Therefore,genericadaptivemeasures,which
havebeenstudiedandtestedindifferentpartsoftheworld(afewofthemarecitedinthereport),
canbeconsideredforNepalaswell.ButduetouniquephysiographicconditionsoftheHimalayan
region of Nepal, several additional adaptive measures must also be considered for better
effectiveness in impact reduction. Some rivers are seasonal with little flow during the dry season
whichrendersthemunsuitableforyearroundirrigationorhydropowergenerationwithoutsurface
storage.

Collaboration between DHM and hydro companies be established and maintained. Established (if
not),maintainandmonitorthehydrometnetworksthatrepresentthebasinofinterest.
Promotion of research on case studies in different geographical regions and hydrological zones
within the Country. Collaboration of hydro companies with research institutes (TU, KU etc) be
promotedandfacilitated.
Encourage storage projects. Wherever possible, provide provision for storages facilities to the
existingandunderdevelopment(underconstruction)
Frequentincreaseinsoilerosion,landslideeventsanddebristorrentsaremajorthreatsinNepaland
such events are likely to increase by Climate Change. So watershed conservation activities be
increased,dueconsiderationbegiventorivermorphologyduringplanning,designingandoperation
phases.

57

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