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This Week at the ISN

Our Weekly Content Roundup

9 - 13 May 2016

JUMP TO Editorial Plan | Security Watch | Blog | Video

// Security Watch

This week, our first Security Watch (SW) series focuses on water as a source of instability in the Middle East; the evolving
relationship between autonomous weapon systems and human control; why East Asia has enjoyed a long peace; the
lessons learned from the post-911 long war against terrorism; and why an effective EU defense policy is in the UK's
interest. Then, in our second SW series, we look at the resilience of the Somali insurgent-jihadi group al-Shabaab; the
legal suit being brought by the Marshall Islands against nine nuclear powers; Japans foray into jet fighter production; the
impact cheap technologies may have on the US militarys tactical dominance; and the escalation of religious conflicts in
the Northern Caucasus region.

Water and Insecurity in the Levant

9 May 2016

The Middle East is the most water-stressed region in the world and climate change is about to make the problem worse. If
the areas states hope to avoid water-driven instability, argue Ido Bar and Gerald Stang, they'll have to join together and
address a host of technical, political and security problems at both the local and regional levels. More

The Resilience of al-Shabaab

9 May 2016

As Christopher Anzalone sees it, the Somali insurgent-jihadi group al-Shabaab has proven to be remarkably resilient,
despite suffering a number of setbacks. Pragmatic decision-making, skilled tactical maneuvering, strong interpersonal ties,
and a continued focus on domestic Somali issues and clan politics are some of the reasons why. More

Autonomous Weapons & Human Control

10 May 2016

When it comes to lethal autonomous weapon systems, is meaningful human control necessary or should the standard be
appropriate human judgment? In this article, Paul Scharre and Kelley Sayler conclude that the operational roles of
military members may wane in the future, but their positions as moral agents and weapon system fail-safes will not.
More

The Clarion Call from the Atolls: Marshall Islands Puts the Nuclear Powers on Notice
10 May 2016

If youre not aware of it, the Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) is suing nine nuclear powers at the International Court of
Justice (ICJ) for breaching their legal obligation to eliminate their nuclear weapons. Heres A V Kumars update on RMIs
attempt to right a flagrant denial of human justice. More

Responding to Security Challenges in East Asia: Three Perspectives

11 May 2016

East Asia may be a politically and militarily tense place, but the last significant interstate conflict that occurred there was
the Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979. In this article, John Ravenhill attributes this long peace to three possible causes 1)
hegemony and balancing; 2) institutions and elite socialization; and 3) economic interdependence. More

The X-2 ATD-X: Japans Last Chance Fighter Jet?

11 May 2016

Japan is now testing its fifth-generation X-2 ATD-X combat aircraft. Its motive, at least in part, is to contest the longstanding dominance of the advanced fighter jet business by the United States and Europe. Heres Richard Bitzingers take
on whether Tokyo will realize its aerospace ambitions or not. More

More Lessons from a Long War

12 May 2016

What strategic lessons should we learn from the conflicts of the 21st century? In addition to those identified in NDU Press
Lessons Encountered: Learning from the Long War, Joe Collins provides five additional ones that apply to the post-2013
era. Unsurprisingly, the reality that wars start and end with politics is one of them. More

Cheap Technology Will Challenge US Tactical Dominance

12 May 2016

In this article, T X Hammes highlights the technologies that are either changing or about to change the character of violent
conflicts. They include UAVs, artificial intelligence, additive manufacturing, nanoenergetics, and others. The technologies
also represent a diffusion of power that will almost certainly impact small- and medium-sized states. More

Why EU Defense Policy Is in the UKs Interest

13 May 2016

From a defense perspective, why should the United Kingdom remain in the European Union? In this article, Daniel
Keohane argues that it will be able to maximize its strategic options, play a leadership role in European defense policy,
facilitate greater NATO-EU cooperation, and weaken national-preferential defense procurement practices. More

Russias Middle East: The Escalation of Religious Conflicts in the Northern Caucasus
13 May 2016

As Maciej Falkowski sees it, the eastern part of the Northern Caucasus has not only become thoroughly Islamicized, its
also caught up in a bloody conflict between local proponents of Sufism and Salafism. Heres the tale, including the
destabilizing role Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, is playing in it. More

// Blog

Interview Banafsheh Keynoush

9 May 2016

How did the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988 reshape Saudi Arabian-Iranian relations? Is Iran really out to upend the regional
order in the Middle East? And what does Tehran think of Wahhabisms influence on the Saudi state? Here are Banafsheh
Keynoushs answers to these questions and a slew of others.
More

How to Rebuild Trust in the Humanitarian System

10 May 2016

According to Christina Bennett, the humanitarian system is experiencing a crisis of legitimacy. Not only does it lack the
money and capabilities it needs to respond to humanitarian disasters, its also operating in a transformed authorizing
environment. Heres what this new context means and what it will take to adapt to it properly. More

Propaganda and Censorship: Adapting to the Modern Age

11 May 2016

Traditional approaches to political propaganda may still be valid, argues Veronica Ma, but the digital information age
with its emphasis on instant information sharing and searching has led to fundamental changes in how states
indoctrinate their citizens and others. Heres what she means. More

The Role of Iraqs Former Regime Elements in the Islamic State

12 May 2016

That former Baathists are now influential leaders of the so-called Islamic State is a fact. However, as Tomasz Berg and
Patrycja Sasnal see it, their opportunism and ideological ambiguity also represent the organizations Achilles heel. Indeed,
it may be time to bargain with some of these once-described dead-enders. More

Clausewitz and the Crackhouse

13 May 2016

People dont like to talk about it, but modern war has developed a deep pharmacological dimension. For example,
between 2001 and 2009, US military physicians wrote over 3.8 million opioid prescriptions. In this blog, Paul Kan argues
that its time to take a hard look at these practices and assess how theyre shaping our drug-fueled battlefields.
More

// Video

Military Strategy and Leadership with the US Service Chiefs

In this video, the US five service chiefs discuss a variety of security- and military-related subjects, including 1) the future
force structure of Americas military; 2) Washingtons growing reliance on its offensive cyber capabilities; 3) the role of
"less threatening" coast guards in todays security environment, etc.
More

IISS Armed Conflict Survey 2016

In this video, five analysts highlight and explore the principle findings of IISS 2016 Armed Conflict Survey, which
examines the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of thirty-seven conflicts around the world. The analysts also
prognosticate on the probable hotspots of the future, including Burundi.
More

The New Arab Wars

In this video, Stratfor's Rodger Baker and Roman Muzalevsky discuss China's growing economic and security interests in
Central Asia. They specifically focus on 1) Russia's parallel interests in the region and how Beijing is trying to
accommodate them; 2) Chinese economic, developmental and military investments in the area, and other worthy topics.

More

// Multimedia Content
Here is a selection of this week's additions to the ISN Digital
Library:

Publications More
// New Airliner Threat: Arming Syrian Jihadists with US Anti Aircraft Missiles More
// Macedonia: A Superficial Democracy in the Shadow of Crises
More
// Countering Violent Extremism: The Horn of Africa More
// Reefs, Rocks, and the Rule of Law: After the Arbitration in the South China Sea More
// Engaged Societies, Responsive States: The Social Contract in Situations of Conflict and Fragility
More
// To the Ends of the Earth: Antarctica, the Antarctic Treaty and South Africa More

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