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MrunalExplained:HeadlinevsCoreinflation,WPI,CPI,IIP
Mrunalhttp://mrunal.org
[Economy]IndexTheory:WPI,CPI,IIP,Components,
BaseyearCorevsHeadlineinflation,Laspeyres
formulaexplained
PostedBySupportStaffOn21/08/2014@3:39amInEconomy|77Comments
Prologue
[Act1]WHOcalculatesWPI,CPI,IIP?
[Act2]WHENtheypublishWPI,CPI,IIP?
[Act3]WHEREdotheygetdataforWPI,CPI,IIP?
WPIDataCollection
CPIDatacollection
IIPDataCollection
[Act4]WHATarethecomponentsofWPI,CPI,IIP?
#1:WPIcomponentsofWholesalepriceindex
WhatisHeadlineinflationWPI?
WhatisCoreinflationWPI?
#2:CPIcomponentsofConsumerPriceIndex
WhatisHeadlineCPIinflation?
WhatisCoreCPIinflation?
ConsumerFoodPriceIndex(CFPI)
#3:IIP:SectorwiseComponents?
IIP:GoodswiseComponents?
[Act4]WHYREVISEWPI,CPI,IIPseries?
RevisionofWholesalePriceIndex(WPI)
WPI:Newitemsadded:
SaumitraChaudhuriCommitteeonWPI
RevisionofConsumerpriceindexseries(IIP)
RevisionofIndustrialIndexproduction(IIP)
Comparison:WPI,CPI,IIP
[Act5]WHYWPI,CPI,IIPimportant?
[Act6]Otherindexes
Serviceperformanceindices(SPI)
BalticDryindex
ProducerPriceIndex(PPI)
Somemoreindexes
[Act7]Laspeyresformula
Prologue
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Prologue
Chapter4:PricesandMonetaryManagement.Threesubparts
Monetarymanagement,measuresofmoneysupply,UrjitPatel
IndexesTheory:WPI,CPI,IIP,Servicesindexandothers
IndexesCurrent:SurveyobservationsonWPI,CPI&IIP,Howtocombatinflation.
Waitwhathappenedtoremainingchapters?
Ch.8to13publishedasarticles.
Chapter1to35to7availableaspowerpointandvideos.(Willreleasethemasarticlesafter
prelimsanditsunofficialanswerkey.)
[Act1]WHOcalculatesWPI,CPI,IIP?
OfficeoftheEconomicAdviser
WPI InDIPPDepartmentofIndustrialPolicyandPromotion
InMinistryofCommerce&Industry.
CPI
CentralStatisticsOffice(CSO)
MinistryofStatisticsandProgrammeImplementation(MOSPI)
IIP SameasCPI
[Act2]WHENtheypublishWPI,CPI,IIP?
WPIdatapublication
Weekly
EveryThursday:PrimaryArticlesandFuelGroup
IfThursdayisholidaythennextworkingday
Monthly 14thofEverymonth:allcommodities
Abovetwoareprovisionalbecausesomepricesarenotavailable.
Final
Finallistreleasedtwomonths(~EIGHTweeks).Whentheygetauthenticpricedata
forallcommodities.
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Ifholiday,thenWPIdatareleasednextworkingday.
CPIandIIP:Whenpublished?
Monthlybasis:forurban,rural,allIndia.
CPI Annual:withlagofonemonth.
State/UTsseparateCPIsreleasedonlyiftheyprovide80%ofthenecessarydata.
monthlybasiswiththetimelagofsixweeksfromthereferencemonth.
IIP AlthoughIIPjustashorttermindicator.TheactualresultcomealongwithAnnual
SurveyofIndustries(ASI).
[Act3]WHEREdotheygetdataforWPI,
CPI,IIP?
Sofarweknow,whomakestheindex,andwhentheyreleaseit.ButWHEREdotheygetthe
statisticalinputs?
WPIDataCollection
Primaryarticles
Respectiveministries,dept,PSU,StateGovernments
Fuelandpower
Sameasabove
Manufacturedproducts Leadingmanufacturingunits
total
676items
ProblemsinDatacollection
Sincethecollectionofpricesisonvoluntarybasis,theflowofpricedata,especiallyfrom
manufacturingunits,becomesirregularleadingtoproblemsincompilationofWholesaleprice
index.
EconomicAdviserhascreatedawebportal,sofactoryownerscandirectlysupplydata.But
momentumnotpickedupyet.Seemstheyretoobusychangingprofilepicsonfacebook.
Therefore,EconomicAdvisorshasmadearrangementwithNSSOtocollectpricedatafrom
themanufacturingunits,untilwebportalbecomespopular.
CPIDatacollection
WhogivesdataforConsumerpriceindex(CPI)?
Urban
areas
NSSOofficialssurvey.DataenteredintoNICwebportal.
Rural
NSSOofficials+PostalOfficials(ifNSSOcantreach).Notallvillagessurveyed,
areas
only~1200villages.
IIPDataCollection
WhogivesdataforIndexofIndustrialproduction
(IIP)?
IIPinformationSupplier
Items
DIPP:DeptofIndustrialPolicy&Promotion 430
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IndianBureauofMines
61
Iron&SteelJointCommittee
47
Chem.&PetrochemicalsDept.
47
TextileCommissioner
44
VanaspatiDirectorate
11
JuteCommissioner
11
Petroleumministry
11
RailwayBoard
FertilizerDepartment
CoalController
DirectorateofSugar
SaltCommissioner
TeaBoard
CoffeeBoard
CentralElectricityAuthority(powerMin.)
Totalitems
682
[Act4]WHATarethecomponentsof
WPI,CPI,IIP?
#1:WPIcomponentsofWholesalepriceindex
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EconomicAdvisor,Lespeyersformula,Baseyear2004.
Threecategories,indescendingorderofWeight
WPIcomponents
weight
ManufacturedProductsInternalweight:Chemical>metal>food 64.97
PrimaryArticlesinternalweight:Food>Nonfood>Mineral
20.12
Fuel&Powerinternalweight:Mineraloil>Electricity>Coal
14.91
totalweight
100
Thesethreecategoriesarefurthersubdividedintopictureworth1000words.
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WhatisHeadlineinflationWPI?
Numberwegetfromallcomponentsviz.primary,fuelandmfg.
WhatisCoreinflationWPI?
coremeans,weshouldignorefoodandfuelpart.
So,coreinflation=OnlyWPIofNonfoodmanufacturingindustries.
HeadlineWPI(primary+fuel+foodmfg.industries)
#2:CPIcomponentsofConsumerPrice
Index
CSOcalculatesusingLespeyersformula,Baseyear2010
Fivecategoryofitems.IvearrangedthemindescendingorderofWEIGHT(CombinedAll
India)
CPIcomponents
24.91 28
26.31
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Housing
NA
22.53 9.77
Fuel,light
10.42 8.4
9.49
4.73
Total
100
100
100
Mindit:RuralCPIdoesntconsiderHousinginflation.
SubcategoriesRanking:CPI(Combined)
Ranking
withinthathighestweightagegivento
food,bev.,tobacco
Cereal>Milk>Veggies>..Sugar(lowest)
Fuelandlight
nosubgroup
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Fuelandlight
nosubgroup
clothing,bedding,
(Clothingbedding)>Footware
footware
Housing
Nosubgroup.
Transport>Medcare>Householdrequisites>>Recreation
Misc.
(lowest)
WhatisHeadlineCPIinflation?
Thenumberyougetfromcombineddataofabovecategories.
WhatisCoreCPIinflation?
CoreCPI=HeadlineCPIMINUS(foodandfuelcomponents.)
ConsumerFoodPriceIndex(CFPI)
BythesamegoodfolkswhocalculateCPI(=CSOwalla)
UsingsameLaspeyreformula
Usingsamebaseyear:2010
IftotalweightofCPI=100,thenFoodpriceindex=~52%ofitsweight
Componentsindescendingorder
Components
Cerealsandproducts
Milkandproducts
Vegetables
Oilsandfats
8.98 9.44
9.13
Egg,fishandmeat
6.5
6.77
Pulsesandproducts
6.25 6.11
6.2
Sugaretc.
4.64 4.11
4.47
Fruits
3.65 6.14
4.43
7.38
Condimentsandspices 4.1
3.79
Total
100
100
100
SofarwearedonewithcomponentsofWPI,CPIandfoodinflation.Movingon
#3:IIP:SectorwiseComponents?
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Weight:Mfg>>Mining>>Electricity
sector
397
Mining
141.57 61
Electricity
103.16 1
total
1000
399
682
Mindit:Totalweightis1000.So,ifyouwantpercentageweight,thenshiftdecimalonepoint
toleft.
Forexample:manufacturingweight=75.5%
IIP:GoodswiseComponents?
IIPdatareleasedintwoformats
Sectorwise:Mining,mfg,electricity(thatwejustsawabove.)
Goodscategorywiseusingthesamecomponentsasabove,butdatapresentedforgoods
categorywise.asshownbelow.
Anybulkrawmaterial/productusedinmanufacture.HighSpeedDiesel,
BasicGoods AviationFuel,Kerosene,Urea,Cementallkinds,Granites,iron,copperand
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Electricity
Plants,machineryandgoodsusedforfurtherinvestments.Boilers,
Capital
compressors,engines,Transformers,CommercialVehiclesandallmachineries
Goods
likeTextileMachinery,PrintingMachineryetc.
Intermediate usedformanufacturingofanotherproduct.Cottonyarn,Plywood,Adhesives,
Goods
Aluminumandsteelpipesetc.
Consumer
canbeusedformorethan2/3years).PressureCooker,AC,tyre,Tv,mobile,
durable
automobile,GemsandJewelryetc.
Consumer
cantbeusedforlongperiods.FruitPulp,edibleoil,milkpowder,tea,
nondurable Cigarettes,Apparels,Newspapers,Antibioticsetc.
Goodswiseweight,In
decreasingorder:
IIP
BasicGoods
Weight
456.82
Consumernondurable 213.47
IntermediateGoods
156.86
CapitalGoods
88.25
Consumerdurable
84.6
totalweight
1000
IIP8coreindustries
WithinIIP,following8arecoreindustriesbecausetheyveimpactonalmostallother
economicactivities:
Coal,fertilizer,electricity,crudeoil,naturalgas,refineryproducts,steel,andcement.
IIPDeflation
IIPisaquantitativeindex,theproductionsofitemsarebeingexpressedinphysicalterms.
Butforsomeitems,theinformationisreceivedinValuetermratherthanquantityor
volume.
So,CSOusesWPIasadeflatortoconvertthatpriceintovolume.
[Act4]WHYREVISEWPI,CPI,IIP
series?
NowtimeforaFLASHBACKinthismovie
index newserieseffectivefrom
CPI
2011,January
WPI
2010,September
IIP
2011,June
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Soifthesearethenewserieswetalkedaboutthenwhatwasthesystembeforethat?
RevisionofWholesalePriceIndex(WPI)
TheWPIserieshastoberevisedoften,becauseoftworeasons:
#1:baseyear
Inflationisarelativeconcept.Whenwesaythereisinflationitmeansthingsusedtobe
cheaperatsomepreviousyear.
So,tocalculateWPI,weneedabaseyear.Baseyearshouldberevisedonceinawhile.
#2:productmix
WPIcalculatesinflationusingLaspeyresformulaforweightedarithmeticmean.
Butthisformulafailstocapturethedynamicchangesinproductmixandstructureofthe
economyovertime.
Forexample,15yearsago,priceofVCRandmagnetictapecassetteswouldhavemattered.
Butnooneusesthemanymore.
Sameway,15yearsago,peopledidnotbuythatmuchmoisturizercreamsandperfumes.
Hencewevetokeepchangingthecomponents.
BasedAbhijitSenCommittee
BEFORE
AFTERSenCommittee,WPIreform
NewsystemStartedfrom2010,Sep
Baseyear1993 2004
435items
676
Increasedno.ofpricequotations
Iffactorydirectlyexports,thendontcountthatvalueinWPI
Iffactorydirectlyimportsanitem,dontcountitinWPI.
Addednewitems.
WPI:Newitemsadded:
Listnotexhaustive
Primaryarticles
Lemon,GaurSeed,Rose,Jasmine,Marigold
Crudepetroleum,CopperOre,ZincConcentrate
Manufactureditems
ComputerStationery,UPS,SMPS,VCDplayer
DishAntenna,FibreOpticCable
Perfume,ScentCream,Moisturizer,BodyPowder
LeatherGloves,jackets,garments,bags
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Football,Toothbrush
SaumitraChaudhuriCommitteeonWPI
CurrentWPI
676items
Saumitrarecommends
~1200items.
11vegetables 17
Expectedtobeoperationalfromnextyear
Collectpricesfrommorecentres,togetbetterestimate.
Reduceweightofprimaryfooditems.Increaseweightofmfg.items
Baseyear2004 2009,Andthento2011
EnoughofWPI,movingon
RevisionofConsumerpriceindexseries(CPI)
PROLEMBefore
SOLUTIONAfter
Startedfrom2011,January
baseyear2010
Specificgroupsonly.
(Baseyearinbracket)
Industrialworkers(2001) Rural
agriculturallaborers
Urban
(1986)
combined(+state/UTwiseseparatelyreleased)
rurallaborers(1986)
ConsumerFoodPriceIndices(CFPI).
Problem=doesntgive
wholepicture
ItemlistdesignedbasedonNSSOs2004survey.Infuture,CPI
willberevisedusingNSSOs2011survey.
Mindit:thisdoesntmeantheynolongercalculateCPIforindustrialworkersAgro&rural
laborers.Theystilldoit.
RevisionofIndustrialIndexproduction(IIP)
EachIIPitemshouldhavecertainminimumcontributiontonationalproduction.
ForexampleVCRindustryscontributioninTodayseconomy=0%
Therefore,needtoupdatelistwithbasedontechnologicalchanges,economicreformsand
consumptionpatternsofthepeople.
IIPBefore
IIPAfter
C.P.ChandrasekharCommittee
Baseyear:
1993
2004
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Addednewitems:Apparels,GemsandJewellery,Newspapers,pasteurisedMilk,
Writing&PrintingPaper,AyurvedicMedicaments,WoollenCarpets,Wood
Furniture,TerryTowel,CoirMats&Mattings,PolytheneBags,InstantFood
Mixes,FruitPulpetc.
Information
source
agencies:
15
16.
MSMEdroppedasasourceagency.
ChemicalandFertilizerDepartmentadded
So+2minus1=1increase
NIC1987
ItemsusedfromNationalIndustrialClassification(NIC)2004
Increasedweightgiventominingandelectricity
Decreasedtheweightgiventomanufacturing
AskedMSMEministrytodevelopaseparateindexforMSMEsector
Comparison:WPI,CPI,IIP
Whatdidwelearnsofar?
QUESTION
WPI
CPI
IIP
HOW?
Lespeyresformula
same
same
WHO?
Economicadvisor
CSO
CSO
WHEN?
weekly&monthly
monthly
monthly
WHEREtheyget
ministries,dept.,
NSSOandPostal
data?
industries
workers
Components
types
3:MFG>Primary>
Fuel
onlyoneWPI
5categories
3:MFG>Mining>electricity
Rural,urban,
SectorwiseandgoodsUsage
combined
wise.
items
676
baseyear
2004
2010
nonfood
headline
manufacturing
(food+fuel)
CORE
ministries,dept,bodies
682
2004
8industries
[Act5]WHYWPI,CPI,IIPimportant?
Yes,whybothercalculatingWPI,CPIandIIPinthefirstplace!?
WhyisWPIimportant?
Monitorsthedynamicmovementofprices.
Who
WhytheyuseWPI?
Government Todesigntrade,fiscalandothereconomicpolicies
Todesignmonetarypolicy,underMultipleindicatormethod:RBIusedWPI.
RBI
(ButRajanstartedusingCPIforthispurpose,sinceApril2014,onUrjitpatel
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recommendation.
Businessmen
Inthebusinesscontracttocalculatepriceescalationclausesinthesupplyof
rawmaterials,machineryandconstructionwork.
WhyCPIimportant?
Measuresthepriceofgoodsthathouseholdsconsume.
Monitoringpricestability.
Government CalculatingDearnessAllowance
UsingasDEFLATORinnationalaccounting
TodesignmonetarypolicyfromApril2014onwards,basedonUrjitPatel
RBI
recommendation.
Businessmen CalculatingDearnessAllowance
WhyIIPimportant?
TheIIPmeasuresvolumechangesintheproductionofaneconomy
Providesameasurementthatisfreeofinfluencesofpricechanges
DatausedinGovernmentpolicyplanningpurposes,IndustrialAssociations,Research
InstitutesandAcademicians.
[Act6]Otherindexes
Serviceperformanceindices(SPI)
Index Doesitcoverservicesectorinflation?
WPI
Nope
CPI
Partiallye.g.education,healthcare
IIP
Itdoesntcaptureinflation.Itcapturesincrease/decreaseinproduction.
Butheretoo,Servicesectorproductionnotcounted.
Anyways,EconomicAdvisorstartedservicespriceindices(SPI).(recallhealsodoestheWPI).
Onexperimentalbasis.
Tocaptureinflationinfollowingservicesectors:
Railways
SPIs
Banking
SPIs
freightandpassengerservices
servicesforwhichbankschargefees,commissions,brokerage,etc.
RBIgetsthemdatafrom21banks(13sarkaari,4private,2foreign,1
cooperativeand1RRB).
onlyDepartmentofPosts.
Hardlytellsanything,becauseitIGNORESfollowing:
PostalSPIs Privatecouriercompanies
postalservicetoarmedforces(fornationalsecurityissue)
moneytransferviaWesternunion,IPO,moneyorderrevenuestamps.
Telecom
onlyforcellularservicesonthebasisTRAIreport.Quarterlybasis.
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SPIs
AllofthemusesameLaspeyresformula.
BalticDryindex
LondonbasedBalticExchange,releasesthisindexnumberondailybasis.
Measurescosttotransportrawmaterialsbysea.
IfBaltic
meaning
number
Increases
Morerawmaterialshipped.Worldeconomygrowing
WashighestinMay2008(~11,800).
Reverseimpactoneconomy.
Decreases
After2008,Afterthatcontinuousdeclineduetosubprime,andeurozone
crisis.
LowestMay2014(982)
ProducerPriceIndex(PPI)
measurespricechangefromtheperspectiveoftheseller.
i.e.averagechangeinsellingpricesreceivedbydomesticproducersfortheiroutput.
Coversbothgoods+services.(WPIonlycoversgoods)
Sellersandpurchaserspricesdifferduetogovernmentsubsidies,taxesanddistribution
costs.Therefore,bettertousePPI.BcozCPIdoesntcoverthis.
MajorityoftheOECDcountriesmeasureinflationbasedonProducerPriceIndex(PPI)
WPIhasbeenreplacedinmostcountriesbyProducerPriceIndex(PPI)duetothebroader
coverageprovidedbythePPIintermsofproductsandindustries
PPIhasmoreconcordancewithsystemthenationalaccount.(comparedtoWPI)
Therefore,OfficeoftheEconomicAdviser(OEA)hastakenuptheinitiativeforconstructinga
ProducerPriceIndex(PPI)forIndia.
Somenotablecountries
IrelandusesBOTHWPIandPPI
OnlyWPI
OnlyPPI
Japan,Australia,Greece,Norwayand
Canada,USA,Aussies,S.Korea,UK,Spain,
Turkey
Italy
Somemoreindexes
RBI
Inflationexpectationsurveyofhouseholds.
Forthreemonthsand1yearaheadperiods.
OrderBooks,InventoriesandCapacityUtilizationSurvey(OBICUS)
ByReserveBankofIndia(RBI)
OBICUS
Toassessconsumptionandinvestmentdemand
Surveying~2500companiesinmanufacturingsector
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Timeframe:quarterly
AnnualsurveyofIndustries
ByNSSOunderStatisticalministry
ASI
Tosurveymanufacturingsectorsgrowthandstructure
Surveyingeverymfg.unitemploying10workersormore.
Annually
HSBC
NEER|REER
IndiaManufacturingPurchaseManagersIndices(PMI).
Monthlybasis
willseethemwhenIpublisharticlesforch6and8.inthemeantimeyoumay
refertothepowerpointorlecturevideos..
[Act7]Laspeyresformula
Notforprelims.ButwhentheywanttobeginSTRESSinterviewparticularlyduring
bank/MBA.
LaspeyrewasaGermaneconomist.
HisformulausedincalculationofWPI,CPI,IIP,servicepriceindices.
ItisaWeightedarithmeticmean.
Letsunderstandwithacrudeexample.
SupposealocalthugsINFLATIONindexusesfollowingformat,with2004asbaseyear.
Hecanonlydecidethebaseyearandweightsassignedtoeachcomponentsonhisown.
Condition:heshoulddistributetheweightinsuchmannerthattotalweightis10,100,1000
thatway%calculationiseasier.
Afterthat,monetarypolicies,fiscalpoliciesandmarketforceswilldeterminethepricesin
baseyearandcurrentyear.Hejusthastoapplyformula.
So,exceldatalookslikethis:
Components weight 2004prices 2014prices
Desiliquor
10
Rs.10
Rs.15
Gutkha
20
Rs.2
Rs.5
Cinema
70
Rs.50
Rs.75
Weight
100
First,Illfindrelativeprice(CurrentpricesdividedbyBASEyearsprices)
Components weight 2004prices 2014prices R
Desiliquor
10
Rs.10
Rs.15
1.5
Gutkha
20
Rs.2
Rs.5
2.5
Cinema
70
Rs.50
Rs.75
1.5
NowIllmultiplyRelativepricewithweightassignedtoeachcomponents
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10
Rs.10
Rs.15
1.5 15
Gutkha
20
Rs.2
Rs.5
2.5 50
Cinema
70
Rs.50
Rs.75
1.5 105
Total
100
170
Finally,theadditionofRXWwillmeindexnumberforcurrentyear.15+50+105=170.
ThatmeansCurrentinflationin2014,is70%,comparedtothepricesinbaseyear2004.
In2015,IfIgetthenumber180=80%inflationthanbaseyear(2004)
Butcomparedto2014,the2015syearoninflationwouldbe(180170)/170=~6%.
Statisticallywecanexpresswiththisformula:
Note:somebooksuseP0/Q0,itsbasicallythesame.Becausetheytakeweightas=(pxq).
Someotherindexes(onlyGIST,notgoingindetails)
Paasche
index
TellsuswhattodaysBasketofcommodities,wouldhavecost@yesterdaysprice.
Fisher
Geometricmeanof(LaspeyreseandPassche).Thissolvetheproblemof
index
substitutionbiasinconsumerExpenditure.
ArticleprintedfromMrunal:http://mrunal.org
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URLtoarticle:http://mrunal.org/2014/08/explainedwpicpiiipindexcomponent
coreinflationheadlineinflationlaspeyre.html
Copyright2014Mrunal.Allrightsreserved.
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