Probability

in a nutshell

Definition

Probability Rules
Rule 1: The probability of any event will always be a number from zero to one.
Rule 2: When an event cannot occur, the probability will be zero.
Rule 3: When an event is certain to occur, the probability is 1.
Rule 4: The sum of the probabilities of all of the outcomes in the sample space
is 1.
Rule 5: The probability that an event will not occur is equal to 1 minus the
probability that the event will occur.

Law of Large Numbers

Def

Combinations
A combination is a selection of objects without regard to the order in which they are
selected.
An arrangement of n distinct objects in a specific order is called a permutation.
ABC BAC CAB ACB BCA CBA
Ejemplos

Discrete Probability Distributions

In mathematics, a variable can assume different values.
Variables whose values are due to chance are called random variables.
A probability distribution consists of the values of a random variable and their
corresponding probabilities.
There are two kinds of probability distributions. They are discrete and continuous. A
discrete variable has a countable number of values (countable means values of zero, one,
two, three, etc.).
A continuous variable has an infinite number of values between any two values. Continuous
variables are measured.

The Mean and Standard Deviation

Suppose you roll a die many times and record the number of threes you obtain. Is it possible
to predict ahead of time the average number of threes you will obtain? The answer is Yes.
It is called expected value or the mean of a binomial distribution. This mean can be found by
using the formula mean () 14 np where n is the number of times the experiment is
repeated and p is the probability of a success. The symbol for the mean is the Greek letter
(mu).

Statisticians are not only interested in the average of the outcomes of a probability
experiment but also in how the results of a probability experiment vary from trial to trial.
Suppose we roll a die 180 times and record the number of threes obtained. We know that
we would expect to get about 30 threes. Now what if the experiment was repeated again
and again? In this case, the number of threes obtained each time would not always be 30 but
would vary about the mean of 30. For example, we might get 28 threes one time and 34
threes the next time, etc. How can this variability be explained? Statisticians use a measure
called the standard deviation. When the standard deviation of a variable is large, the
individual values of the variable are spread out from the mean of the distribution. When the
standard deviation of a variable is small, the individual values of the variable are close to
the mean.
Recall that for a probability experiment to be binomial, two outcomes are necessary. But if
each trial of a probability experiment has more than two outcomes, a distribution that can
be used to describe the experiment is called a multinomial distribution.

The Hypergeometric Distribution

When a probability experiment has two outcomes and the items are selected without
replacement, the hypergeometric distribution can be used to compute the probabilities.

The Geometric Distribution

Suppose you flip a coin several times. What is the probability that the first head appears on
the third toss? In order to answer this question and other similar probability questions, the
geometric distribution can be used.

The Poisson Distribution

Another commonly used discrete distribution is the Poisson distribution (named after
Simeon D. Poisson, 17811840). This distribution is used when the variable occurs over a
period of time, volume, area, etc. For example, it can be used to describe the arrivals of
airplanes at an airport, the number of phone calls per hour for a 911 operator, the density of
a certain species of plants over a geographic region, or the number of white blood cells on a
fixed area.

The Normal Distribution

One of the most often used continuous probability distributions is called the normal
probability distribution.
1. It is bell-shaped.
2. The mean, median, and mode are at the center of the distribution.
3. It is symmetric about the mean. (This means that it is a reflection of
itself if a mean was placed at the center.)
4. It is continuous; i.e., there are no gaps.
5. It never touches the x axis.
6. The total area under the curve is 1 or 100%.
7. About 0.68 or 68% of the area under the curve falls within one
standard deviation on either side of the mean. (Recall that is the symbol for the
mean and is the symbol for the standard deviation.) About 0.95 or 95% of the area
under the curve falls within two standard deviations of the mean.
About 1.00 or 100% of the area falls within three standard deviations of the mean.
(Note: It is somewhat less than 100%, but for simplicity, 100% will be used here.)

The Standard Normal Distribution

The normal distribution can be used as a model to solve many problems about variables
that are approximately normally distributed. Since each variable has its own mean and
standard deviation, statisticians use what is called the standard normal distribution to solve
the problems.
The standard normal distribution has all the properties of a normal dis- tribution, but the
mean is zero and the standard deviation is one.

The Monte Carlo Method

The Monte Carlo Method of simulation uses random numbers. The steps are
Step 1: Step 2: Step 3:
Step 4:
Step 5: Step 6:
List all possible outcomes of the experiment.
Determine the probability of each outcome.
Set up a correspondence between the outcomes of the experiment and random numbers.
Generate the random numbers (i.e., roll the dice, toss the coin, etc.)
Repeat the experiment and tally the outcomes.
Compute any statistics and state the conclusions.