Case Study Nile Basin

Case study Nile basin:
Needs Assessment for and Conceptual Design

of the Nile Basin Decision Support System
DI Gerald EDER
Burundi, D.R. Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya,
Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

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Needs Assessment for and Conceptual Design of

the Nile Basin Decision Support System
(project title)
Project period: July 2007 - May 2008
Client: United Nations Operation and Programme Service;
in support of the Nile Basin Initiative (partnership of all Nile countries)
financed by the World Bank
Objective:
1. Stakeholder consultations in all riparian countries (situation assessment)
2. Identification of requirements for a Nile Basin DSS
3. Development of technical design of DSS tailored to the needs of the Nile
Basin; prepare Terms of Reference ready for implementation

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Background
Countries
Burundi
D.R. Congo
Egypt
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Kenya
Rwanda
Sudan
Tanzania
Uganda

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Background
Challenges
(Water) stressed system
Drought
Flood risk
Environmental degradation
Poor coverage of water
supply and sanitation
Food insecurity
Power shortage
Opportunities
Untapped potential for energy
and food production
Political will for cooperation
International support
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Project objective 1:
Situation assessment
Situation assessment (i.e.) in the basin based on national and sub-
regional stakeholder consultations
– 9 national consultation workshops (in 9 countries)
– 2 sub-regional consultation workshops (in Kigali for NEL-region and Addis Ababa for EN-region)
Î Availability and quality of relevant data
Training & awareness raising workshops on IWRM & Decision

Support Systems Application
– 9 national training & awareness raising workshops (in 9 countries)
– 2 sub-regional consultation workshops (in Kigali for NEL-region and Addis Ababa
for EN-region)
Î What is a DSS?
Development of the Nile-Information System ("Nile IS")

– Web-based knowledge and information management system
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– Some of these sub-basins obviously

contribute more than others
– It is also interesting to note how
much water is “lost” to evaporation
in the Sudd wetlands
– and how much is provided by the
Blue Nile

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In an average year the basin receives some 650 mm
of rainfall corresponding to around 1,900 bcm of
water per year.
Long-term mean annual flow at Aswan is only about
85 bcm per year, making the annual runoff coefficient
of the basin around 4.5%.
Runoff coefficient of 4.5% is small (e.g. just 10% of
that of the Rhine).
This is explained by the fact
– that a significant portion of the basin comprises arid
and hyper-arid zones that are large in surface area
yet contribute only negligibly to basin runoff.
– Added to this are the evaporation losses from major
swamp areas which cause up to 30% of the basin’s
rainfall to be lost before being used for any purpose.

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Seasonal Rainfall Coverage
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
In general terms the northern ca.1/3 of the basin,

effectively receives negligible rainfall
(with the exception of the small coastal margins of the Main
JUL AUG SEP
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The very eastern margins of the basin has the
possibility of rainfall throughout the year
The remainder of the basin (ca. 2/3) receives rainfall on
a seasonal basis OCT NOV DEC

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It is estimated that although only Egypt

faces physical water scarcity in the
short to medium future (i.e. to 2025)
BUT ALL the other riparian countries
face or will face economic scarcity.
Given the economic predominance of
agriculture it is interesting to consider
water availability in terms of the annual
growing season
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Situation
assessment

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Demographic developments
Country Population Surface Population Population Population Population

area density in in growth
rural area Nile Basin (%)
(%) (%)
Uganda 27 241 111 88 90 2.8
Tanzania 38 945 40 63 10 2.0
Sudan 39 2,505 12 60 79 2.2
Rwanda 9 26 345 80 80 3.2
Kenya 32 580 56 59 37 2.2
Ethiopia 75 1,104 68 83 39 2.0
Egypt 77 1,001 76 58 95 1.8
DR Congo 54 2,344 23 68 7 3.0
Burundi 7 27,8 265 90 55 2.9

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Public administration organization structure
Members Central State governments Regional Local government

government government
Burundi Central State 17 provinces and 1 Districts
city administration
DR Congo Central State 11 provinces Districts
including Kinshasa
Egypt Central State 27 governorates Districts and municipalities
Ethiopia Federal State 9 Regional states and 2 (Zonal Offices) Districts (Woheda)
autonomous city
administrations
Kenya Central State Provinces Districts and municipalities
Rwanda Central State Provinces Districts
Sudan Federal State 25 States Provinces Districts and municipalities

Tanzania Union State 2 Governments 26 Regions Districts and municipalities
Uganda Central State - Districts and municipalities

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Socio-economic characteristics
Members % in GDP per % Economic Domestic Domestic water

agricultural capita growth water supply supply coverage -
sector (US$) coverage - urban
rural
Burundi 80-90 110 ? 61 96
DR Congo 70-75 697 ? 26 89
Egypt 42 4300 6.9 94 96

Ethiopia* 81 430 7.1 11 81
Kenya 80-90 512 6.2 31 87
Ruanda 90 250 ? 61 64
Sudan 57 519 8 64 78
Tanzania 79 280 5.6 62 92
Uganda* 78 310 ? 52 87
Source FAO Aquastat 2005 except for Rwanda: Enquente Intégrée sue les Conditions des Vies des ménages (EICV 1 and 2)
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% of hydropower produced by riparian states
Country Proportion Remarks

from
hydropower
Uganda
Tanzania
Sudan 30% After completions Merowe plant 2010
Rwanda
Kenya
Ethiopia 96% Three new plants (2000 MW) under construction
Egypt 15% % Declined due to sharp increase of demand
DR Congo
Burundi 95%

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Key Environmental Issues
Wetlands, lake degradation and biodiversity loss
Water quality degradation
Sedimentation
Sea water intrusion
Floods and droughts
Transboundary environmental issues
– Physical or chemical impact across national boundaries downstream
– Degradation of wetlands and lakes
– Need for transboundary cooperation to protect key habitats
– Lack of early warning systems
– Spread of exotic and invasive water weeds

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Identification of requirements for a Nile Basin DSS
(concerns)
Second round of national and sub-regional stakeholder

consultations in all riparian countries
– 9 national consultation workshops (in 9 countries)
– 2 sub-regional consultation workshops (in Kigali for NEL-region
and Addis Ababa for EN-region)
Î Comprehensive assessment of specific needs (concerns) and

DSS requirements
Î Assessment of associated human capacity issues

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Stakeholders identification and selection

Definition “Stakeholder”
A person or a group with a direct interest, involvement or
investment in an initiative, project or enterprise.
What is a ‘stake’ in water management?
Different classification categories of stakeholders can be applied
for specific purposes.
– Direct stakeholders to water, like water users or people with no
access to safe water, vs. indirect stakeholders like government
officials in a water resource management function
– Public, private and voluntary sector organizations
– National, sub-national and supra-national stakeholders

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Stakeholder categories for Nile DSS project
Organizations that take decisions
Institutions that for the water management and socio-economic
development mandates prepare and take rational and scientific
decisions
Knowledge development partner organizations
Institutions that can contribute to the development of the knowledge
base and simulating the effects and impact of human interventions in
the river basin or its sub systems
Interested organizations
Institutions that through their societal functions and involvements in the
water sector have an interest to be informed about forthcoming
investments and water allocation decisions
Data supplying organizations
Institutions that collect and process climatic, biophysical, hydrometric,
spatial and socio-economic data needed for the operation of simulation
models

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Concerns

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For Society
water supply and sanitation clearly emerges as the
most pressing issue

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For Economy
irrigation and
increased energy demand dominates the issues

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For Natural Resources

wetland degradation,
watershed degradation and
soil/bank erosion are equally important

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Development of technical design of DSS tailored to
the needs of the Nile Basin; prepare Terms of
Reference ready for implementation
Preparation of DSS design specifications of the river basin
planning model
incl. a suite of analytic tools to support multi-objective analysis of
investment alternatives
Development of a detailed DSS development plan
incl. training and procurement plans

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What is a DSS?
DSS definition:
A Decision Support System is a

computer based problem solving system
that can
assist non-trivial choice
between alternatives in
complex and controversial domains.

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“Non-trivial choice”:
• Multiple conflicting objectives

• of competing institutions and stakeholders
• Multiple criteria
• of competing different sectors
• Differing rationalities
• Lack of accurate data and lack of availability
• Uncertainties

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“Complex and controversial domains” –

multiple criteria:
– economic criteria (costs, benefits)
– environmental criteria
– social criteria
– standards (measurements)
– perceptions (believes, fears)
– political criteria (e.g., equity, security)
– regulatory criteria (constraints)
– technological criteria (constraints)

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What is a DSS? (2)

A DSS is a computer-based system designed to assist the
process of participatory decision-making.
A DSS can assist in:
– Defining the Problems and their objectives (using the
knowledge base / information system)
– Choosing an Alternative between possible actions for
solving complex, non-trivial problems
– Making a judgment upon well formulated evaluation
Criteria for the decision-making

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What is a DSS for the NBI? (3)

A DSS is a common computer-based platform for communication,
information management and analysis of water resources.
It provides a framework for sharing knowledge, understanding

river system behavior, evaluating alternative development and
management strategies, and supporting informed decision
making.

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DSS design principles:

Ease of use
Flexibility
Modularity
Openness, transparency
Scientific excellence
Advanced technology
Compatibility, interoperability
Cost efficiency

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Basic Questions (TOR):
What will the system be used for ?

What is the output of the system ?

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What will the system be used for ?

Direct support of the decision making process:
selecting and configuring interventions that address the
major issues:
– Structuring the problem, organizing (shared) information basis
– Defining a preference structure
– Designing alternative solutions (scenario analysis, optimization)
– Evaluating alternatives
– Ranking and selection of alternatives
– Monitoring impacts ?

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Model scenarios, generating alternatives incl.
evaluation (multi-criteria, increase the overall net
benefit), that addresses the stakeholder’s main issues
(core system)

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Main issues and outputs (1):

Water resources availability: demand/supply, reliability,
supply/demand management
Increased energy demand: hydropower production,
reservoir design/operation
Irrigation: water demand/supply, efficiency, reliability
(availability), production

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Main issues and outputs (2):

Watershed degradation: land use change, soil erosion,
runoff patterns (floods)
Soil/bank erosion: flow regime/turbidity, sediment
transport
Water quality/pollution: point/non-point source pollution,
allocation/treatment
Droughts and floods: frequency, extent, impacts,
effectiveness of mitigation measures (reservoirs, land
use)

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Alternative scenarios (interventions), sensitivity analysis
Evaluation: water budgets, impact of interventions on
downstream/overall system
Ranking of alternatives

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The Process of Decision Making
What Decision Makers usually do when they make a decision?
– Define the Problem (decision situation with regard to

difficulties or concerning new opportunities)
– Construct a Model that describes the real-world problem
– Identify possible Solutions to the modelled problem and
evaluate the solutions
– Compare, choose, and recommend a potential solution to
the problem
a typical trial-and-error approach

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What Decision Makers usually need to do when they make a
decision?
– Consider all different alternatives from which to choose

(non-trivial problem)
– Predict consequences of uncertainties
– Make rapid decision on a changing and controversial
environment

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Which tools may help them?
– Decision Makers must be more sophisticated.

– They must use new tools and techniques of their fields
– They need computer support = Decision Support System

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Framework for Decision Making
1. Problem:
What is wrong?
2. Actions / Preferences:
What are the Opportunities? What do we want?
3. Alternatives:
What can be done?
4. Evaluation:
What does it cost? – Not affordable? go to 2 or 3
5. Comparison:
The best Alternative? – Not agreed? go to 2, 3, 4
6. Final Decision:

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Nile Information System

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Case Study Nile Basin

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Case study Nile basin:

Needs Assessment for and Conceptual Design

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Needs Assessment for and Conceptual Design of

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Training & awareness raising workshops on IWRM & Decision

Development of the Nile-Information System ("Nile IS")

– Some of these sub-basins obviously

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

APR MAY JUN

In general terms the northern ca.1/3 of the basin,

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

It is estimated that although only Egypt

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Country Population Surface Population Population Population Population

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Members Central State governments Regional Local government

Rwanda Central State Provinces Districts

Sudan Federal State 25 States Provinces Districts and municipalities

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Members % in GDP per % Economic Domestic Domestic water

Egypt 42 4300 6.9 94 96

Country Proportion Remarks

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Second round of national and sub-regional stakeholder

Î Comprehensive assessment of specific needs (concerns) and

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Stakeholders identification and selection

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

For Natural Resources

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

A Decision Support System is a

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

• Multiple conflicting objectives

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

“Complex and controversial domains” –

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

What is a DSS? (2)

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

What is a DSS for the NBI? (3)

It provides a framework for sharing knowledge, understanding

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

DSS design principles:

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Basic Questions (TOR):

What will the system be used for ?

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

What will the system be used for ?

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

What is the output of the system ?

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Main issues and outputs (1):

hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH

Main issues and outputs (2):