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Stefan Bauschard

TPA Politics

TPA Neg............................................................................................................ 2
U TPA Pass Now....................................................................................... 3
U Democrats........................................................................................... 4
U Top of the Docket................................................................................. 6
U A2: Republicans Dont Want to Support Obamas Power......................7
U Obama Pushing.................................................................................... 8
U PC......................................................................................................... 9
U TPP A2: TPP Wont Be Agreed On.....................................................10
IL Democrats Key..................................................................................12
IL Republicans Key................................................................................. 14
TPP Internal Perception.........................................................................15
TPA Impact -- Economy............................................................................ 16
TPA Impact China Rise...........................................................................19
TPA Impact GMOs Good (via TTIP).........................................................27
TPA Impact Immigration Reform/Immigration (TPP Internal).................30
TPA Impact Internet Freedom................................................................34
TPA Impact Manufacturing.....................................................................41
TPA Af............................................................................................................ 42
NU No TPA............................................................................................. 43
TPP Answers............................................................................................. 45
A2: Other Scenarios....................................................................................... 46
TPA Thumper............................................................................................ 47
Nuclear Deal Af............................................................................................. 48
No Nuclear Deal....................................................................................... 49
Congressional Involvement Bill DA NU.....................................................50
Surveillance Reform Af..................................................................................51
Nuclear Deal Neg........................................................................................... 53
Possible DA.............................................................................................. 54
A2: No Deal.............................................................................................. 55
A2: New Sanctions Mean We Get a Better Deal.......................................57
A2: Snap Back Sanctions Fail...................................................................58
A2: US Controls the Global Financial System...........................................60

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

TPA Neg

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

U TPA Pass Now


Senate acting on TPA, momentum behind it
Wall Street Journal, 4-21-15, Trade Poison Pill,
http://www.wsj.com/articles/trade-poison-pill-1429659780 DOA: 4-21-15
OnWednesdaytheSenateFinanceCommitteeplanstobeginmarkingupTradePromotionAuthority
(TPA)legislation,alsoknownasfasttrack,thatisnecessaryfortheAdministrationtocompletetrade
accordswiththeEuropeanUnionand11PacificRimcountries.ThebilloutlinesU.S.negotiating
objectivesontradeagreementsandguaranteesanupordownvotewithoutamendments.Nearlyevery
PresidentsinceFranklinRoosevelthashadthispower.ThebillhadbeenmovingwellsinceFinance
ChairmanOrrinHatchandrankingDemocratRonWydenagreedlastweekoncompromiselanguage
thattheObamaAdministrationalsosupports.Thecompromiseincludeslanguagedirectingthe
Administrationtoensurethatforeignpartnersavoidmanipulatingexchangeratesviacooperative
mechanisms,enforceablerules,reporting,monitoring,transparency,orothermeans,asappropriate.

Enough votes
Eric Garcia, 4-21-15, http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/some-senatedemocrats-look-ready-to-buck-harry-reid-on-trade-20150421 Some Senate
Democrats Look Ready to Buck Harry Reid on Trade, DOA: 4-21-15
"Iwouldhavelikedtoseemorewitnesses,butI'mgladwehadatleasttwo,"SchumersaidonTuesday,in
referencetoAFLCIOPresidentRichardTrumkaandU.S.ChamberofCommercePresidentandCEOTom
Donohue.DonohuewasoptimisticthattherewouldbeenoughvotesinthecommitteeforTrade
PromotionAuthority,thoughhewouldn'tgetintospecifics."Ileavethecountingofvotestomy
colleagues;justletmesimplysaywe'llgetenough,"DonohuetoldNationalJournal

Their non-uniqueness bumps dont prove it wont pass


Business Report, 4-22-15, http://www.iol.co.za/business/international/carrice-imports-impasse-stalls-japan-us-trade-deal-1.1848505#.VTeKFmZe1Ds
Car, rice imports impasse stalls Japan, US trade deal DOA: 4-22-15
TheUSSenateCommitteeonFinanceintroducedabipartisanbilllastweekinWashingtonthatcould
havespedpassageofTPPrelatedtradelegislationinCongress.ThelegislationwouldlettheWhite
HousesendCongresstradepactsforvoteswithoutamendment,knownastradepromotionauthority.Italso
wouldgiveCongresstherighttorevokethesocalledfasttrackprocessifenoughlawmakersfindthe
presidentignorednegotiatinggoals.Fortunately,theUSCongressdoesseemtobeworkingongetting
thattradepromotionauthority,andifthatgoesthroughthenthiswillbealoteasiertodo,said
RobertFeldman,chiefeconomistatMorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesinTokyo.Thereisalwaysagreat
dealofbrinkmanshipinvolvedinthesenegotiations,sothefactthatthingsarereportedtohave
gottenalittlebumpyatavery,verylatestagedoesntsurprisemeabit.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

U Democrats
Enough support of Democrats to pass now
Eric Garcia, 4-21-15, http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/some-senatedemocrats-look-ready-to-buck-harry-reid-on-trade-20150421 Some Senate
Democrats Look Ready to Buck Harry Reid on Trade, DOA: 4-21-15
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's statement Tuesday that he is a "hell no"
on legislation that would give the White House more leverage to negotiate
trade deals is reflective of many Democrats on the Senate Finance
Committee. But while it is likely that most of the committee's 12
Democrats will still be opposed to a new trade authority, there are
signs that just enough Democrats might be open to the bill as it
prepares to go into markup on Wednesday.
Senate Democrats have criticized the Finance Committee's process in
introducing legislation giving the president Trade Promotion Authority, also
known as "fast-track authority," under which the White House would have
more leverage to negotiate trade deals like the 12-nation Trans-Pacific
Partnership and make the final votes subject to an up-or-down vote without
the ability to amend. The legislation for the authority was announced
last week by Republican Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch and Democratic
ranking member Ron Wyden.
Wyden, who has been criticized by progressives over his support for free
trade, said at a hearing Tuesday that the TPP legislation will have a strong
emphasis on labor and environmental standards, and any trade deal would be
public 60 days before the president could sign it.
GOP Sen. John Thune told reporters Tuesday that four to five
Democrats on the committee will likely vote for Trade Promotion
Authority. Among potential Democratic "yes" votes are Sen. Thomas Carper,
who tweeted praise for Hatch and Wyden's compromise and has spoken
supportively of Trade Promotion Authority in previous years.
Sen. Maria Cantwell, another possible Democratic TPA supporter, said the TPA
should be accompanied by Trade Adjustment Assistance, which helps workers
who are displaced as a result of foreign trade deals, a natural concern for
many Democrats who worry about lost jobs in trade agreements.
"You've got to have TAA to go with trade," Cantwell told National Journal. "I'm a
supporter of TPA, but listen, the notion that kind of rumpled up around in the last couple of days that TAA
might not get done is a very bad message. You've got to take care of the workforce."
Some progressives are concerned that the TPP will repeat what they felt were mistakes of previous free
trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement. But Democratic Sen. Mark Warner said the
scenarios are diferent.
"I think, though, America is in a diferent position today and through a strong trade agreement, we're going

the Trans-Pacific
Partnership, however, Warner said, "Let's look at TPP as we get details."
The Obama administration is adamant about pushing Democrats on the
Hill on what could possibly be one of its few accomplishments in its second
term. In an interview with MSNBC that's airing Tuesday, President Obama
came out strongly against Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is not on the Finance
Committee, saying she was "wrong" on trade, further revealing the gap
to become a net job gainer," Warner told National Journal. Regarding

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics
between the White House and the Massachusetts Democrat. Members of the
administration, like U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman and Labor
Secretary Thomas Perez, have met with Democratic members of the House
recently to lobby them on the deal.
Still, many Democratic senators side with Reid, saying they have
reservations.
"I still have concerns, of course. We have to go through an amendment
process and hopefully we'll see what that can produce," Sen. Robert
Menendez said ahead of the hearing on Tuesday, adding that he has a whole
host of amendments he's ready to ofer.
Sen. Chuck Schumer, who has previously criticized the committee's process
on TPA, said he still has reservations.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

U Top of the Docket


TPA vote in late April
Adam Behsudi, 4-21-15, Politico, Trade rumble: Democrats stuck between
Warren, Obama, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/dems-stuckbetween-warren-obama-in-trade-rumble-117211.html?hp=rc1_4 DOA: 4-2115
The fast-track bill, introduced last week by Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and
Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), is scheduled for a markup on Wednesday in
advance of a full floor vote as early as late April. The House Ways and
Means Committee, where Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is a fast-track
champion, will review legislation on Wednesday ahead of an expected
markup on Thursday.

Or early May
Shawn Donnan, 4-21, 2015, Obama makes a fresh push for fast track
authority, Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cfc14958-e86c11e4-baf0-00144feab7de.html#axzz3XzgDTYro DOA: 4-21-15
Committees in both the Senate and lower House of Representatives are due
to consider the fast-track bill again on Wednesday and Thursday, setting up
votes in both houses of Congress by early May.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

U A2: Republicans Dont Want to Support


Obamas Power
Conservative opposition has not materialized
Daniel Newhauser, 4-21-15, National Journal, Trade Deal Gives Obama,
GOP Leaders a Vote-Counting Test,
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/trade-deal-gives-obama-gopleaders-a-vote-counting-test-20150421 DOA 4-21-15
Conservatives, meanwhile, are wary of giving Obama more unilateral power,
especially as they battle executive actions on immigration and health care in
the courts. But House aides are encouraged that widespread conservative
opposition from outside groups has not materialized, and influential voices on
the right, such as Sen. Ted Cruz, have lined up in support of the free-trade
agenda.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

U Obama Pushing
Obama rounding up votes now
Angela Greiling, 4-21-15, Bellingham Herald, US, Japan Close to completing
talks on Trans-pacific deal,
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2015/04/21/4253027/us-japan-close-tocompleting-talks.html DOA 4-21-15
The interview was part of a weeks-long administration effort to get
Congress to grant Obama trade promotion authority, known as fast
track. That would allow U.S. trade officials to negotiate a deal and have
lawmakers give it a yes-or-no vote without making changes. The
administration and U.S. trade partners consider it crucial to an accord.
The administration is supporting a bill granting the authority that was
negotiated by Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, the Republican chairman of the
Finance Committee that oversees trade policy, and Sen. Ron Wyden of
Oregon, the panel's top Democrat.
Republicans, who generally have backed free-trade accords, are
pressuring Obama to get more Democrats behind passage of the
Hatch-Wyden legislation,
"If he wants to get this passed, he's going to have to weigh in much
more heavily," Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., said in an interview.
Republicans want "robust support from both sides" on the bill, he
said.
Hatch, asked whether the administration was rounding up enough
support, said, "Frankly, they're doing better than I thought."

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

U PC
Obama investing capital in trade agreements
Robert Kutner, 4-20-15, American Prospect, Obamas Trade Agreements are
a Gift to Corporations, https://prospect.org/article/obamas-tradeagreements-are-gift-corporations DOA: 4-22-15
Togetsocalledfasttracktreatmentforthesedeals,theadministrationneedsspecialtradepromotion
authorityfromCongress.ButObamafacesseriousoppositioninhisownparty,andhewillneedlotsof
Republicanvotes.HehastohopethatRepublicansaremoreeagertohelptheircorporatealliesthanto
embarrassthispresidentbyvotingdownoneofhistoppriorities.Buttherealintriguingquestioniswhy
Obamainvestssomuchpoliticalcapitalinpromotingagreementslikethese.Theydolittleforthe
Americaneconomy,andevenlessforitsworkers.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

10

U TPP A2: TPP Wont Be Agreed On


US and Japan finalizing TPP deal now, TPP key
Mark Swire, 4-22-15, Japan, US Make Progress in TPP Talks, Tax News,
http://www.taxnews.com/news/Japan_US_Make_Progress_In_TPP_Talks____67873.html DOA:
4-22-15
Afteranotherrecentroundofintensenegotiations,Japan'sEconomicMinisterAkiraAmariandUSTrade
RepresentativeMichaelFromanweresaidtohavemadesignificantprogresstowardsaTransPacific
Partnership(TPP)agreementbetweenthetwocountries,butthatmoreeffortwillbenecessary.Priortothe
meetings,inaninterviewwithTheWallStreetJournal,JapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbehadexpressed
thehopethatanagreementcouldbefoundbeforeorduringhisvisittoWashingtononApril28butwarned
that,whileabilateraldealis"close,"the"lasthurdle"couldbethemostdifficult.TheTPPdiscussions
betweenAmariandFromanagainconcentratedonmarketaccessforJapanintotheUSautomobilesector,
andfortheUSintheJapaneseagriculturalmarket.However,althoughthegapbetweenthetwosides
appearstohavenarrowed,theyendedwithoutadefinitiveagreement.

US and Japan close on TPP


Angela Greiling, 4-21-15, Bellingham Herald, US, Japan Close to completing
talks on Trans-pacific deal,
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2015/04/21/4253027/us-japan-close-tocompleting-talks.html DOA 4-21-15
WASHINGTON President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe may be able to declare next week that the U.S. and Japan
have all but completed their part of negotiations on a Trans-Pacific
Partnership agreement, Japan's ambassador to the U.S. said.
Kenichiro Sasae said in Washington that while some issues remain to be
settled on auto and agriculture, he hopes Abe and Obama will announce
agreement when the Japanese leader visits the White House on Tuesday.
"All the gaps are substantially narrowed," Sasae said Tuesday at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "We are in the
final stage."
Japan and the U.S. are the two biggest economies negotiating the 12-nation
trade deal and an agreement between them would be a major boost for
Obama's pursuit of a trade deal that would link economies across the Pacific,
making up roughly 40 percent of the world's gross domestic product.
Sasae said that after the Obama-Abe meeting he hoped the two countries
would be the "major driving force" to complete the broader TPP deal. "We
have come close and we can deliver it."
The Obama administration has said it wants to wrap talks up with all the
nations involved this year, but is running into resistance from the president's
fellow Democrats in Congress.
The president Tuesday said the critics of the deal within his party are
misguided in their complaints that it would harm U.S. workers.

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TPA Politics

11

In an interview with MSNBC, Obama said he wouldn't be negotiating the


accord if that were the case and pointed to his record in office as evidence he
was focused on making sure ordinary Americans were "getting a fair deal."
"When you hear folks make a lot of suggestions about how bad this trade
deal is, when you dig into the facts, they are wrong," Obama said.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

12

IL Democrats Key
Democrat support critical to TPA
Reid Wilson, 4-22-15, Washington Post, Reid Wilson covers national politics
and Congress for The Washington Post. He is the author of Read In, The Posts
morning tip sheet on politics,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obamas-fight-for-trade-authorityfaces-radically-altered-political-landscape/2015/04/22/0a378a90-e8e8-11e4aae1-d642717d8afa_story.html DOA: 4-22-15
Twentytwoyearsago,102HouseDemocratsjoined132RepublicanstoratifytheNorthAmericanFree
TradeAgreement.Today,supportersofanewtrademeasureareonthehuntforvotestogivePresident
Obamamoreauthoritytonegotiatemultilateraltradedeals,butshiftingpartypoliticsandanevolving
congressionalmapwillmaketheirtaskmuchtougherthanitwastwodecadesago.TheSenateFinance
CommitteewillbegandebateWednesdayonthemeasure,knownasTradePromotionAuthority,andwhile
mostobserversbelieveitwillpasstheSenate,thevotecountintheHouseismuchtighterandno
onebelievesanywherenear102Democratswillsupportthenewdeal.MostofthevotesinfavorofTPA
willcomefromtheRepublicansideoftheaisle,whereHouseWaysandMeansCommitteeChairman
PaulRyan(RWis.)isleadingthecampaign.Butasignificantnumberofmoreconservative
RepublicanshavevoicedoppositiontoanydealthatappearstogiveObama,theirpoliticalarchnemesis,
anymorepower.Theresatrustissuewiththeexecutive,saidRep.TomEmmer(RMinn.),who
circulatedaletteramongHouseRepublicanfreshmeninsupportofthetradedeal.TheresponsethatI
wouldgenerallyhear[amongRepublicans]was,Hey,Idontwanttogivethispresident,this
administration,anymoreauthority.ThatmeanssupporterswillneedatleastsomeDemocraticvotesto
passthemeasure.Butoppositionfromlaborunions,whoremainpowerfulinheavilyDemocraticdistricts,
hasconvincedmostDemocratstopubliclyopposefasttrackauthority.InthelastCongress,127Democrats
signedaletteropposingTPAinacampaignspearheadedbyRep.RosaDeLauro(DConn.),andanother
ninenewlyelectedmemberssignedasimilarlettercirculatedbyRep.RubenGallego(DAriz.)thisyear.
Thatleavesonly51Democratswhohavenotpubliclystatedtheirposition.Andfewofthemarewillingto
publiclyoffertheirsupport.TheWhiteHouseislargelywhippingupsupportforitsownbill,along
withSen.RonWyden(DOre.),thebillsleadDemocraticsponsorintheSenate.Whatwewilldoand
whatwehavebeendoingisworkingcloselyprimarilythroughDemocratsbutalsoinconversations
withRepublicanstoencouragesomebipartisanagreementaroundTPAlegislation,WhiteHouse
presssecretaryJoshEarnestsaidMonday.CabinetofficialsincludingSecretaryofLaborTomPerez,
CommerceSecretaryPennyPritzker,AgricultureSecretaryTomVilsackandTreasurySecretaryJackLew,
havebegunmakingcallstoDemocrats.Observerssaythepathtoatradedealissignificantlymoredifficult
thanitwasin1993,whenNAFTApassedbya234200margin.ThatsbecausetheDemocraticcaucus
lookssignificantlydifferenttodaythanitdidthen:OftheDemocraticvotesforNAFTA,72camefrom
memberswhorepresentSouthernandborderstates.Abouthalfthoseseats,almostentirelyintheSouth,are
nowheldbyRepublicans.Withoutthosevotes,NAFTAwouldhavefailed.TheRepublicangerrymander
haseliminatedabunchofprofasttrackDemocrats,saidformercongressmanMartinFrost,aTexas
DemocratwhovotedforNAFTA,thenlosthisHouseseatafteramiddecaderedistricting.Asforthe
remainingDemocrats,headded:LaborisstillasignificantforceinanumberofDemocraticdistricts.I
thinkveryfewDemocratswillcrosslaboronthisissue.TheDemocraticpresidentwhospearheadedthe
NAFTAcampaign,BillClinton,hadadvantagesthatObamadoesnot.Clintonswhipteam,ledatthetime
byRahmEmanuel,thenWhiteHousepoliticaldirector,couldtradeearmarkstosecurevotes.Obamahas
nosuchleverage.Eventhen,recallsWilliamGalston,aformertopdomesticpolicyadvisertoClintonand
nowaseniorfellowattheBrookingsInstitution,thebattletopassNAFTAwasathreemonth,allhands
ondeckstruggle.Butthereisapath:Amongthe51DemocratswhohavenotpubliclyrejectedTPA,
37comefromdistrictswheremanufacturingjobsrepresentasmallerpercentagethanthenational

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TPA Politics

13

average,makingthempotentiallylesssusceptibletopressurefromlabor.InanaverageCongressional
district,manufacturingjobsmakeup10.6percentofallpositions;22Democratscurrentlyrepresent
districtswheremanufacturingaccountsforfewerthan8percentofjobs.WhereDemocraticvotesfortrade
oncecamefromtheSouthandborderstates,FrostsaidTPAssuccessorfailurewillrestwithmembers
fromtheWestCoast,whosestatesbenefitthemostfromtradewithPacificnations.Ofthosememberswho
haventsaidtheyopposeTPA,17arefromWashington,OregonandCalifornia.Galstonsaidthenew
realitiesofcampaignpoliticscouldchangetheDemocraticcalculus.AsDemocratspullmoresupport
fromhighlyeducatedandraciallydiversepopulations,tradedealsmaynolongerbethethirdrail
theyoncewere.ThisnewDemocraticParty,madeupofalotofpeoplewhoareinterestedinsocial
issues,isnotasfoursquareagainsttradeagreements,hesaid.Conversely,Republicansareperforming
betteramongwhiteworkingclassvoters,givingthemcontrolofmanymoredistrictswheremanufacturing
makesupadisproportionatenumberofjobs.OnehundredthirtysevenRepublicansrepresentdistrictswith
higherthanaveragenumbersofmanufacturingpositions;in57ofthosedistricts,manufacturingmakesup
morethan15percentofalljobs.Thewhiteworkingclassvoterswhoholdthosejobsaremuchmorelikely
tofeeltheeconomicrecoveryhasleftthembehind,fuelingsomeoftheoppositiontoatradedeal.Ina
JanuaryWashingtonPostABCNewspoll,39percentofAmericanssaidthecountrywasheadedinthe
rightdirection;amongwhiteswithoutacollegedegree,thatnumberwasjust22percent.Whenyouhear
fasttrackcomingfromWashington,thefirstthingyouthinkis,Theseguysarepullingafastone,said
Emmer,theMinnesotaRepublicanwhobacksTPA.Despitetheshiftingpoliticalalliancesthatcomplicate
thedebateovertrade,theparallelsbetweenNAFTA22yearsagoandTPAtodayshowangstovertrade
dealsremainsdeepamongvotersandpoliticiansinbothparties.Thesenseofvulnerabilitythatparts
oftheeconomy,andthereforepartsoftheparties,areexperiencingaremoreofaconstantthanavariable,
Galstonsaid.

Republicans support TPA, Obama must persuade


Democrats
Washington Times, 4-21-15,
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/21/obama-says-elizabethwarren-other-liberals-wrong-o/?page=2 DOA: 4-21-15

LawmakersaredebatingwhethertograntMr.Obamatradepromotionauthority,whichwouldrequire
Congresstovoteupordownontheagreementwithoutbeingableamendingit.Republicansaregenerally
infavorofthemove,butthepresidentfacesatoughersalesjobwithhisownparty,withDemocrats
laboralliesopposedtoafreetradedeal.Mrs.Warren,forexample,whohasbeenpushingDemocratic
presidentialcandidateHillaryRodhamClintontoembracemiddleclasseconomicpolicies,hascharged
thattheTPPwillonlyhelptherichgetricher.

Obama lobbying Democrats


USA Today, 4-21-15,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/04/21/obama-elizabethwarren-chris-matthews-hardball-elizabeth-warren/26137133/ DOA 4-21-15
ObamaiscurrentlyworkingontheproposedTransPacificPartnershipwithAsiannations,anda
separatetradedealwithEuropeancountries.Thepresidentandhisaidesarealso

lobbying for

Democratic congressional votesinfavorofTradePromotionAuthority.Thebillwould


enabletheadministrationtoputtogetherafinalagreementforanupordownvoteinCongresswithno
amendments.Somelawmakerswantlaborandenvironmentalstandardsintradedeals.Obamasaidthose
wouldbeincludedinwhathesendstoCongress."EverythingIdohasbeenfocusedonhowdowemake
surethemiddleclassisgettingafairdeal,"ObamasaidonMSNBC.

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TPA Politics

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Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

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IL Republicans Key
Republicans key to TPA
Robert Kutner, 4-20-15, American Prospect, Obamas Trade Agreements are
a Gift to Corporations, https://prospect.org/article/obamas-tradeagreements-are-gift-corporations DOA: 4-22-15
Togetsocalledfasttracktreatmentforthesedeals,theadministrationneedsspecialtradepromotion
authorityfromCongress.ButObamafacesseriousoppositioninhisownparty,andhewillneedlotsof
Republicanvotes.HehastohopethatRepublicansaremoreeagertohelptheircorporatealliesthanto
embarrassthispresidentbyvotingdownoneofhistoppriorities.Buttherealintriguingquestioniswhy
Obamainvestssomuchpoliticalcapitalinpromotingagreementslikethese.Theydolittleforthe
Americaneconomy,andevenlessforitsworkers.

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TPA Politics

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TPP Internal Perception


Perception of loss of votes for TPA means no internal link
Adam Behsudi, 4-21-15, Politico, Trade rumble: Democrats stuck between
Warren, Obama, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/dems-stuckbetween-warren-obama-in-trade-rumble-117211.html?hp=rc1_4 DOA: 4-2115
Trade promotion authority legislation would give the president the power to
complete trade deals with only up-or-down votes from Congress and is seen
as integral to both reaching a bilateral agreement with Japan and bringing
home the 12-nation TPP agreement the largest trade deal in U.S. history.
But an indication that the fast-track bill doesnt have enough votes could deal
a blow to the negotiations.

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TPA Politics

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TPA Impact -- Economy


TPA critical to new trade agreements that secure global
growth
Peter Rof, 4-21-15, US News & World Report, Ris a contributing editor at U.S.
News & World Report. Formerly a senior political writer for United Press
International, he's now affiliated with several public policy organizations,
including Let Freedom Ring and Frontiers of Freedom, Trade Opponents Are
Living in the Past, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peterrof/2015/04/21/opposing-obamas-trade-promotion-authority-is-living-in-thepast DOA: 4-21-15

ThefalloftheBerlinWalldidntjustmarkthebeginningoftheendofCommunism,consigningittothe
ashheapofhistory,asPresidentRonaldReaganfamouslyobservedwasitsproperplace.Italsomarkedthe
birthofaneconomythatwastrulyglobalinscope.Thingsdevelopedsorapidlythatatonepoint,as
politicalscientistFrancisFukuyamaambitiouslypredicted,itlookedlikehumanityhadreachedtheendof
historywithmarketcapitalismtriumphant.
Asweallnowknow,thingsarenotquitesorosy.Theworldisstillbesetbychallenges,thekindthat,
franklyenough,mostpeoplefailedtoseecomingastheColdWarended.Inatriumphofexperienceover
hope,unrestintheMiddleEastthreatenstodisrupttheglobalbalanceofpower.Andwithsomuchofthe
economyfueledbythekindoftraditionalenergysourcesthatexistinsuchabundanceinthatparticularly
unstableregionoftheworld,toughtimescouldbeintheoffing.Americahastohedgeitsbets,whichcan
bebetteraccomplishedbyliberatingtheworldmarketthanbycontinuedgovernmentinvestmentin
disproventechnologiesthatarenotreadyforthecommercialmarketplace.
Toputitanotherway,reducingthecostsinvolvedintradinggoodsandservicearoundtheglobewillhelp
blunttheimpactofpriceincreasesintheenergymarketsoncetheworldrecoversforgoodfromtheglobal
recessionthatstartedwiththenearcollapseofU.S.financialmarkets.
RightnowAmerica,isontheedgeofseveralgroundbreakingtradeagreementsthat,onceenteredinto,
wouldexpandtheU.S.economy,raiselivingstandardsaroundmuchoftheglobe,createjobsandopen
marketstogoodsproducedhereathomejustasthiscountryembarksonalongawaitedmanufacturing
renaissancearisingoutofourprolongeddomesticenergyboom.TheproposedTransPacificPartnership
andthecontemplatedU.S.E.U.tradeagreementarelikelowhangingfruit,justwaitingtobepluckedas
Americaandtheworldmoveintothenextstageofglobalcommerce.
ThisnextphasewillbefueledbycontinuedgrowthinelectroniccommunicationsandtheInternet,theGDP
enrichingproductionofU.S.basedintellectualproperty(whoseindustrieshereinAmericaalreadyaccount
forabout35percentofU.S.grossdomesticproduct,morethanonequarterofthenationsjobsand60
percentofexports),technologydrivenadvancesinhealthcareandmedicalresearch,improvedmethodsof
farmingproducinghardiercropsingreaternumbers,andnewwaysofprovidingeducationtodeserving,
knowledgehungrystudentsoutsideoftheossifiedatmosphereofthetraditionaluniversity.
Inordertogetthere,however,weregoingtoenduresomechangesandmakeallowanceshereathome.As
painfulastheideaistosomepeople,CongressmustgivePresidentBarackObamathetradepromotion
authorityhehasaskedforinordertogetthesedealsdone.
Thereasonissimple:Inorderfortheseagreementstobeconsummated,thenegotiatorsworkingonbehalf
ofallpartiesinvolvedmusthaveconfidencethatwhateachnationagreestodowillberatifiedintactby

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eachparticipatinggovernment.Itistheonlywaytoproduceconcessionsondifficultissueslikethe
protectionofecommerceandintellectualproperty,wheretherulesoftheroadarestillbeingwritten,and
toresolveoldargumentsaboutthesellingofautomobilesandagriculturalproducts.
Allthisisnotonlygoodforbusiness,itisgoodforconsumers.Lowertariffsandnotariffsmeanlower
pricesthatcanbepassedalongatthewholesaleandretaillevel.Itsawaytomakethesamedollar(orany
otherrelevantunitofcurrency)gofartherthanitcurrentlydoes.
GivingObamathetradepromotionauthorityheseeksisnotasurrendertoexecutiveoverreachassomeof
hiscritics(andcriticsoftradepromotionauthorityingeneral)havesuggested.Itsanideathathas
bipartisansupport,andisbeingledintheU.S.SenatebyconservativeUtahRepublicanOrrinHatchand
liberalOregonDemocratRonWyden,anunlikelyduoifthereeverwasone.Indeed,itsanauthority
presidentsinbothpartieshavebeengiveninordertohastentheconclusionoffreetradedealsthatbenefit
everyonefromthesmallmanufacturerinMichigantotheTexasrancher,fromtheSiliconValleysoftware
entrepreneurtotheNebraskafarmer.Since2009,exportshaveaccountedformorethanoneandahalf
millionnewU.S.jobs,accordingtotheofficeoftheUnitedStatesTradeRepresentative,withjobsin
manufacturingtiedtoexportspayingbetterthan10percentmorethanthosethatarenot.
Ifwebelievethattheintersectionofnationaleconomiesandthecombiningofbusinessinterestsarea
formulatoproducepeacearoundtheworldwhichisoneofthereasonsdemocraciestendnottogotowar
withoneanotherandaggressornationstempertheirambitionstowardothernationswhoowethemmoney
thengivingtradepromotionauthoritytothepresidentfortheremainderofhistermisasensibleidea.
Thosewhorejectthatare,regrettably,stewardsofthepast,seekingtoprotectwhatoncewasandwillnever
beagainattheexpenseofabrighter,moreprosperousandpeacefulfutureforusall.

TPA boosts the US economy


Former Representative Ron Kirk, 4-22-15, The Hill, American Should Continue
to Lead on Trade, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economybudget/239571-america-should-continue-to-lead-on-trade DOA: 4-22-15
TheconversationaroundtradepromotionauthorityandtheTransPacificPartnership(TPP)hasgrown
morepassionateinrecentweeks,asagrowingnumberofelected,business,andcommunityleadersprepare
forCongresstotakeuptheissue.Whileitsclearquestionsremainaboutsomedetailsofthis
groundbreakingtradeagreement,onethingallpartiesshouldbeabletoagreeonisthattradingU.S.goods
supportsU.S.jobsandAmericashouldbeleadingthewayonthisissue.
Atthelocallevel,freeandfairtradecanhaveadramaticimpactontheeconomybutittakesa
commitmenttoengagingopportunitiesbothoverseasandhereathome.Over7yearsasmayorofDallas,I
ledourcitytoembracea21stcenturyeconomy,lookingtonewmarketsandboostingexportsbeyondour
borderstostrengthenthemanybusinessessmallandlargethatcallDallashome.Icrossedtheglobeon
trademissionsandleveragedrelationshipswithanumberofcountriesandregionsincludingMexico,
Canada,China,France,Italy,Spain,andAfrica.Today,IamproudtosaythatDallasisoneofthefastest
growingcitiesinAmerica,andtradeisamajorplayerinthestoryofourcityssuccess.Infact,in2013,the
DallasFortWorthareawasexportingmorethan$27.6billioningoodsandservicestomarketsaroundthe
world.
Nationally,tradehasanoutsizedandgrowingroleintheAmericaneconomy.Lastyear,theU.S.exported
goodsandservicesworth$2.35trillionsupportingmorethan11millionAmericanjobs.Infact,since

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2009,fullyonethirdofoureconomicgrowthhasbeenduetoincreasedexports.Atatimewhenthe
middleclassisshrinkingandgoodpayingjobsthatcansupportafamilyarefewandfarbetween,export
relatedjobsofferararebrightspotpayingupto18%morethannonexportjobs.Thatmeansmoreand
betterpayingjobsforhardworkingAmericansrighthereathome.
NowwehavetheopportunitytodoevenmoretoshoreupAmericanjobs,bygivingthepresidentthetrade
promotionauthorityheneedstocompleteimportanttradedealsliketheTPP.Oftheestimated11million
jobsalreadysupportedbyAmericanexports,1.5millionaresupportedbytradewithoneofthetwelve
countriesthatarepartytotheTPPagreement.Bypassingthishistoricagreement,wehavetheopportunity
toexpandtradeevenfurther,supportingthousandsofjobs:infact,every$1billioninexportssupports
between5,200to7,000jobshereathome.Whatsmore,thenonpartisanPetersonInstitutefoundthatTPP
wouldexpandU.S.exportsby$123.5billion,translatingtoanincreaseof$77billioninrealincomefor
Americansby2025.
CriticsoftheTPPhaveexpressedconcernsaboutthetransparencyofnegotiations.WhileIagreeweshould
worktomakethisprocessasopenaspossible,wealsohavetobalancetheneedforparticipatingnationsto
negotiateingoodfaiththatmeansensuringenoughdiscretionthateverycountrycanlaytheircardson
thetable.ItsthankstothismeasuredapproachandPresidentObamasleadershipthatwehavebeenableto
bringadozencountriestothenegotiatingtable,comprisingmorethan40%oftheglobaleconomy.With
strongsafeguardsforworkplacesafety,wages,andtheenvironment,thisagreementwillmakesurethatthe
UnitedStatescontinuestoleadontradewhiledeepeningourtiestoourpartnersaroundthePacific.
Expandingfreeandfairtradewillnotonlysupportthousandsofnewjobshereathomeitwillstrengthen
ourpositionoverseas.Sincehisfirstterminoffice,PresidentObamahasmadeaclearcommitmenttothe
AsiaPacificregion,doublingdownonourcommitmentswithourallieswhilealsoworkingtoforgenew
relationshipsinthiscriticalpartoftheworld.PassingtheTPPwillbuildonthiscommitmenttoour
partnersoverseasandensuretheUnitedStateshasaseatatthetablewritingtherulesoftheroadforthe
comingdecades,insteadofleavingittoothercountriestodoitwithoutus.Inrecentyears,theAsiaPacific
regionhasseennearly200newtradedealsandthevastmajorityoftheseagreementsmakezero
commitmentstolaborrightsortoenvironmentalprotections.AbandoningtheTPPnowwouldcede
Americanleadershiptonationswithlessinterestinensuringthatworkersarepaidfairlyandhavesafe
workplacesorthatcommunitiescandefendtheircleanairandoceans.
Today,fully95percentoftheworldsmarketsliebeyondourborders.Wecannotaffordtolookinward
whiletherestoftheworldgrowsclosertogetherifwewanttoshapetheworld,wemustengageinit.
Givingtradepromotionauthoritytothepresidentwillenableustonegotiatemoderntradedealsthat
guaranteeabetterfutureforAmericanworkers,whileensuringthattheUnitedStatescontinuestoleadwell
intothe21stcentury.

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TPA Impact China Rise


TPA critical to counter Chinas rise
Daniel Wiser, April 22, 2015, Free Beacon, Trade Deal in Asia Could
Counter Growing Chinese Influence, http://freebeacon.com/nationalsecurity/trade-deal-in-asia-pacific-could-counter-growing-chinese-influence/
Lawmakers advocating for a U.S. trade deal with countries in the Asia Pacific
region say the agreement could serve as a vital counterbalance to
Chinas growing influence in the region.
Leaders on the Senate Finance Committee, along with House Ways and
Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R., Wis.), unveiled legislation last
week that would grant President Barack Obama Trade Promotion Authority
(TPA) to finalize pending trade deals. The Obama administration is currently
negotiating an agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with
11 other countries and has touted the deal as a key part of its pivot to the
Asia-Pacific region. Analysts say the pivot has so far been more talk than
action. While the administration has been forced to respond to crises
in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, China has moved aggressively
to seize disputed territories in the South China Sea and build
military airstrips on contested islands. Beijing has also pushed for
alternative trade deals in the region that some observers say are
designed to contest U.S. influence. Ryan said in a radio interview on
Monday that the TPP, supported by TPA in Congress, will serve as a
counterweight against China. TPA allows lawmakers to have an up-ordown vote on trade deals but without amendments or filibusters in the
Senatea condition viewed as crucial to securing buy-in from other
countries. The TPA process is also known as fast track.
China is trying to write the rules of the global economy to try and meet
Chinas demands, not ours, Ryan said. So its really kind of a race for who
writes the rules for the global economy: the U.S. and our allies, or China. He
noted that the United States has been excluded from previous trade
deals in the region while China has played an active role.
There have been 48 trade agreements put in place in Asia since the year
2000, he said. The U.S. has been a party to two of them. As a result,
our share of exports over there has gone down 42 percent. So if you
arent getting these agreements for your country, youre losing and
other countries are getting your market share.
U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter also expressed support earlier this
month for the TPP, at one point stating in a speech that, passing TPP is
as important to me as another aircraft carrier.
We already see countries in the region trying to carve up these markets, he
said.
A senior aide for the Ways and Means Committee told the Washington Free
Beacon that supporters of TPA and TPP will continue to note the latters
importance to countering Chinas dominance in the region. Countries such
as Malaysia and Vietnam are still determining whether to develop

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21

more market-oriented economies in line with U.S. allies or statist


ones similar to Chinas.
China provides a lot of incentives to steer away from a marketdriven economy, the aide said, such as foreign investment and aid.

Failure to contain Chinas rise causes global war


Ikenberry 08

G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International


Afairs at Princeton University, Foreign Afairs, January/February 2008, The
Rise of China and the Future of the West,
http://www.foreignafairs.com/articles/63042/g-john-ikenberry/the-rise-ofchina-and-the-future-of-the-west
The rise of China will undoubtedly be one of the great dramas of the twentyfirst century. China's extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy are
already transforming East Asia, and future decades will see even greater
increases in Chinese power and influence. But exactly how this drama will play
out is an open question . Will China overthrow the existing order or become a
part of it? And what, if anything, can the United States do to maintain its
position as China rises?
Some observers believe that the American era is coming to an end, as the
Western-oriented world order is replaced by one increasingly dominated by
the East. The historian Niall Ferguson has written that the bloody twentieth
century witnessed "the descent of the West" and "a reorientation of the
world" toward the East. Realists go on to note that as China gets more
powerful and the United States' position erodes, two things are likely to happen:
China will try to use its growing influence to reshape the rules and institutions of
the international system to better serve its interests, and other states in the
system -- especially the declining hegemon -- will start to see China as a growing
security threat. The result of these developments, they predict, will be tension ,
distrust , and conflict , the typical features of a power transition. In this view,
the drama of China's rise will feature an increasingly powerful China and a
declining U nited S tates locked in an epic battle over the rules and leadership of the
international system. And as the world's largest country emerges not from
within but outside the established post-World War II international order, it is a
drama that will end with the grand ascendance of China and the onset of an
Asian-centered world order.
That course, however, is not inevitable . The rise of China does not have to trigger
a wrenching hegemonic transition. The U.S.-Chinese power transition can be very
different from those of the past because China faces an international order that is
fundamentally different from those that past rising states confronted. China does
not just face the United States; it faces a Western-centered system that is open,

integrated, and rule-based , with wide and deep political foundations. The
nuclear revolution, meanwhile, has made war among great powers unlikely -eliminating the major tool that rising powers have used to overturn
international systems defended by declining hegemonic states. Today's
Western order, in short, is hard to overturn and easy to join.

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This unusually durable and expansive order is itself the product of farsighted
U.S. leadership. After World War II, the United States did not simply establish
itself as the leading world power. It led in the creation of universal institutions
that not only invited global membership but also brought democracies and
market societies closer together. It built an order that facilitated the
participation and integration of both established great powers and newly
independent states. (It is often forgotten that this postwar order was
designed in large part to reintegrate the defeated Axis states and the
beleaguered Allied states into a unified international system.) Today, China can
gain full access to and thrive within this system. And if it does, China will rise, but
the Western order -- if managed properly -- will live on.
As it faces an ascendant China, the U nited S tates should remember that its
leadership of the Western order allows it to shape the environment in which China
will make critical strategic choices. If it wants to preserve this leadership,
Washington must work to strengthen the rules and institutions that underpin that
order -- making it even easier to join and harder to overturn. U.S. grand
strategy should be built around the motto "The road to the East runs through
the West." It must sink the roots of this order as deeply as possible, giving
China greater incentives for integration than for opposition and increasing the
chances that the system will survive even after U.S. relative power has
declined.
The United States' "unipolar moment" will inevitably end. If the defining
struggle of the twenty-first century is between China and the United States,
China will have the advantage. If the defining struggle is between China and
a revived Western system, the West will triumph.
TRANSITIONAL ANXIETIES
China is well on its way to becoming a formidable global power. The size of its
economy has quadrupled since the launch of market reforms in the late
1970s and, by some estimates, will double again over the next decade. It has
become one of the world's major manufacturing centers and consumes
roughly a third of the global supply of iron, steel, and coal. It has accumulated
massive foreign reserves, worth more than $1 trillion at the end of 2006.
China's military spending has increased at an inflation-adjusted rate of over
18 percent a year, and its diplomacy has extended its reach not just in Asia
but also in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Indeed, whereas the
Soviet Union rivaled the United States as a military competitor only, China is
emerging as both a military and an economic rival -- heralding a profound shift in the
distribution of global power.
Power transitions are a recurring problem in international relations . As scholars such
as Paul Kennedy and Robert Gilpin have described it, world politics has been
marked by a succession of powerful states rising up to organize the
international system. A powerful state can create and enforce the rules and
institutions of a stable global order in which to pursue its interests and
security. But nothing lasts forever: long-term changes in the distribution of
power give rise to new challenger states, who set off a struggle over the terms of that
international order. Rising states want to translate their newly acquired power
into greater authority in the global system -- to reshape the rules and
institutions in accordance with their own interests. Declining states, in turn, fear

Stefan Bauschard
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23

their loss of control and worry about the security implications of their weakened

position.
These moments are fraught with danger . When a state occupies a
commanding position in the international system, neither it nor weaker states
have an incentive to change the existing order. But when the power of a
challenger state grows and the power of the leading state weakens, a strategic
rivalry ensues, and conflict -- perhaps leading to war -- becomes likely . The
danger of power transitions is captured most dramatically in the case of latenineteenth-century Germany. In 1870, the United Kingdom had a three-to-one
advantage in economic power over Germany and a significant military
advantage as well; by 1903, Germany had pulled ahead in terms of both
economic and military power. As Germany unified and grew, so, too, did its
dissatisfactions and demands, and as it grew more powerful, it increasingly
appeared as a threat to other great powers in Europe, and security
competition began. In the strategic realignments that followed, France,
Russia, and the United Kingdom, formerly enemies, banded together to
confront an emerging Germany. The result was a European war. Many observers
see this dynamic emerging in U.S.-Chinese relations. "If China continues its
impressive economic growth over the next few decades," the realist scholar
John Mearsheimer has written, "the United States and China are likely to
engage in an intense security competition with considerable potential for
war."
But not all power transitions generate war or overturn the old order. In the early
decades of the twentieth century, the U nited K ingdom ceded authority to
the U nited S tates without great conflict or even a rupture in relations. From the
late 1940s to the early 1990s, Japan's economy grew from the equivalent of
five percent of U.S. GDP to the equivalent of over 60 percent of U.S. GDP, and
yet Japan never challenged the existing international order.
Clearly, there are diferent types of power transitions. Some states have seen
their economic and geopolitical power grow dramatically and have still
accommodated themselves to the existing order. Others have risen up and
sought to change it. Some power transitions have led to the breakdown of the
old order and the establishment of a new international hierarchy. Others have
brought about only limited adjustments in the regional and global system.
A variety of factors determine the way in which power transitions unfold. The
nature of the rising state's regime and the degree of its dissatisfaction with
the old order are critical: at the end of the nineteenth century, the United
States, a liberal country an ocean away from Europe, was better able to
embrace the British-centered international order than Germany was. But even
more decisive is the character of the international order itself -- for it is the
nature of the international order that shapes a rising state's choice between
challenging that order and integrating into it.
OPEN ORDER
The postwar Western order is historically unique. Any international order
dominated by a powerful state is based on a mix of coercion and consent, but
the U.S.-led order is distinctive in that it has been more liberal than imperial
-- and so unusually accessible, legitimate, and durable. Its rules and
institutions are rooted in, and thus reinforced by, the evolving global forces of
democracy and capitalism. It is expansive, with a wide and widening array of

Stefan Bauschard
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24

participants and stakeholders. It is capable of generating tremendous economic


growth and power while also signaling restraint -- all of which make it hard to
overturn and easy to join.
It was the explicit intention of the Western order's architects in the 1940s to
make that order integrative and expansive. Before the Cold War split the
world into competing camps, Franklin Roosevelt sought to create a one-world
system managed by cooperative great powers that would rebuild warravaged Europe, integrate the defeated states, and establish mechanisms for
security cooperation and expansive economic growth. In fact, it was
Roosevelt who urged -- over the opposition of Winston Churchill -- that China
be included as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The then
Australian ambassador to the United States wrote in his diary after his first
meeting with Roosevelt during the war, "He said that he had numerous
discussions with Winston about China and that he felt that Winston was 40
years behind the times on China and he continually referred to the Chinese as
'Chinks' and 'Chinamen' and he felt that this was very dangerous. He wanted
to keep China as a friend because in 40 or 50 years' time China might easily
become a very powerful military nation."
Over the next half century, the United States used the system of rules and
institutions it had built to good efect. West Germany was bound to its
democratic Western European neighbors through the European Coal and
Steel Community (and, later, the European Community) and to the United
States through the Atlantic security pact; Japan was bound to the United
States through an alliance partnership and expanding economic ties. The
Bretton Woods meeting in 1944 laid down the monetary and trade rules that
facilitated the opening and subsequent flourishing of the world economy -- an
astonishing achievement given the ravages of war and the competing
interests of the great powers. Additional agreements between the United
States, Western Europe, and Japan solidified the open and multilateral
character of the postwar world economy. After the onset of the Cold War, the
Marshall Plan in Europe and the 1951 security pact between the United States
and Japan further integrated the defeated Axis powers into the Western order.
In the final days of the Cold War, this system once again proved remarkably
successful. As the Soviet Union declined, the Western order ofered a set of
rules and institutions that provided Soviet leaders with both reassurances and
points of access -- efectively encouraging them to become a part of the
system. Moreover, the shared leadership of the order ensured
accommodation of the Soviet Union. As the Reagan administration pursued a
hard-line policy toward Moscow, the Europeans pursued dtente and
engagement. For every hard-line "push," there was a moderating "pull,"
allowing Mikhail Gorbachev to pursue high-risk reforms. On the eve of
German unification, the fact that a united Germany would be embedded in
European and Atlantic institutions -- rather than becoming an independent
great power -- helped reassure Gorbachev that neither German nor Western
intentions were hostile. After the Cold War, the Western order once again
managed the integration of a new wave of countries, this time from the
formerly communist world. Three particular features of the Western order
have been critical to this success and longevity.
First, unlike the imperial systems of the past, the Western order is built around
rules and norms of nondiscrimination and market openness , creating conditions for

Stefan Bauschard
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25

rising states to advance their expanding economic and political goals within
it. Across history, international orders have varied widely in terms of whether
the material benefits that are generated accrue disproportionately to the
leading state or are widely shared. In the Western system, the barriers to
economic participation are low, and the potential benefits are high. China has
already discovered the massive economic returns that are possible by operating within
this open-market system.

TPA critical to stop the rise of China


Rep. Ryan & Cruz, 4-21-15, Ryan a Republican from Wisconsin, is chairman
of the House Way and Means Committee. Sen. Cruz, a Republican from Texas,
heads the Senate Commerce Committees subcommittee on Space, Science
and Competitiveness, Wall Street Journal, Putting Congress in Charge on
Trade, http://www.wsj.com/articles/putting-congress-in-charge-on-trade1429659409 DOA: 4-21-15

TheUnitedStatesismakingheadwayontwohistorictradeagreements,onewith11countriesonthe
PacificRimandanotherwithAmericasfriendsinEurope.Thesetwoagreementsalonewouldmean
greateraccesstoabillioncustomersforAmericanmanufacturers,farmersandranchers.ButbeforetheU.S.
cancompletetheagreements,Congressneedstostrengthenthecountrysbargainingpositionby
establishingtradepromotionauthority,alsoknownasTPA,whichisanarrangementbetweenCongress
andthepresidentfornegotiatingandconsideringtradeagreements.Inshort,TPAiswhatU.S.negotiators
needtowinafairdealfortheAmericanworker.Thereisalotatstake.OneinfiveAmericanjobsdepends
ontrade,andthatshareisonlygoingtogrow.Ninetysixpercentoftheworldscustomersareoutsidethe
U.S.Tocreatemorejobshere,Americaneedstosellmoregoodsandservicesoverthere.Whenthat
happens,theAmericanworkerbenefits.Manufacturingjobstiedtotradepay16%moreonaverage,
accordingtoastudyreleasedbytheindependentU.S.InternationalTradeCommission.Rightnow,
though,theAmericanworkerisntcompetingonalevelplayingfieldagainstmanyoverseaseconomies.
TheU.S.economyisoneofthemostopenintheworldandforgoodreason.Thankstolowerdutieson
imports,theaverageAmericanfamilysaves$13,600ayear,accordingtoastudybyHSBC.Butother
countriesputuptradebarriersthatdriveuppricesforU.S.goodsandservicesandmakeithardtosellthem
there.TheAmericanworkercancompetewithanybody,ifgivenafairchance.Ifyouaddupall20
countriesthattheU.S.hasatradeagreementwith,Americanmanufacturersruna$50billiontradesurplus
withthem.TheproblemisthatnotallcountrieshaveatradeagreementwiththeU.S.;American
manufacturersruna$500billiontradedeficitwiththosenations.ThatiswhytheU.S.needseffectivetrade
agreementstolaydownfairandstrongrulesthatleveltheplayingfield.Withoutsuchrules,Americas
tradingpartnerswillkeepstackingthedeckagainstjobcreatorsinthiscountry.ButCongresscantjust
taketheadministrationswordthatitwilldriveahardbargain.Wehavetoholditaccountable,andthatis
whattradepromotionauthoritywillhelpdo.UnderTPA,Congresslaysoutthreebasicrequirementsfor
theadministration.First,itmustpursuenearly150specificnegotiatingobjectives,likebeefingup
protectionsforU.S.intellectualpropertyoreliminatingkickbacksforgovernmentownedfirms.Second,
theadministrationmustconsultregularlywithCongressandmeethightransparencystandards.Andthird,
beforeanythingbecomeslaw,Congressgetsthefinalsay.TheConstitutionvestsalllegislativepowerin
Congress.SoTPAmakesitclearthatCongressandonlyCongresscanchangeU.S.law.Ifthe
administrationmeetsalltherequirements,Congresswillgivetheagreementanupordownvote.Butifthe
administrationfails,Congresscanhitthebrakes,cancelthevoteandstoptheagreement.Tradepromotion
authoritywillholdtheadministrationaccountablebothtoCongressandtotheAmericanpeople.Under
TPA,anymemberofCongresswillbeabletoreadthenegotiatingtext.Anymemberwillbeabletogeta
briefingfromtheU.S.traderepresentativesofficeonthestatusofthenegotiationsatanytime.Any
memberwillgettobeapartofnegotiatingrounds.Andmostimportant,TPAwillrequirethe

Stefan Bauschard
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26

administrationtopostthefulltextoftheagreementatleast60daysbeforecompletingthedeal,sothe
Americanpeoplecanreaditthemselves.Thestakesarehigh,becauseifyourenotmovingforwardintrade
negotiations,yourefallingbehind.Inthefirst10yearsofthiscentury,thecountriesofEastAsia
negotiated48tradeagreements.TheU.S.,ontheotherhand,negotiatedjusttwointhatregion.Asaresult,
AmericasshareofEastAsiasimportsfellby42%.EverytopU.S.competitordidbettereveryoneof
them.Meanwhile,ChinaisnegotiatingagreementswithanyonewhowilllistenfromSouthKoreaand
AustraliatoNorway.AnditisntfreeenterprisetheChinesearepushing.Instead,itistheirownformof
cronycapitalism.TheyrewritingrulesthatfavorgovernmentownedfirmsandhamperAmericanjob
creators.Soitallcomesdowntothisquestion:IsChinagoingtowritetherulesoftheglobaleconomy,or
istheUnitedStates?ByestablishingTPA,Congresswillsendasignaltotheworld.Americastrading
partnerswillknowthattheU.S.istrustworthyandthenputtheirbestoffersonthetable.Americasrivals
willknowthattheU.S.isseriousandwontabandonthefield.AndtheAmericanpeoplewillknowthis
tradeagreementisagood,fairdealbecausetheyllhavetheinformationtheyneedtodecidefor
themselves.PromotingAmericantradewillcreatemoreopportunityinthecountry,andsowestronglyurge
ourcolleaguesinCongresstovotefortradepromotionauthority.

Failure to cement trade agreements means US cedes


leadership to other countries
Bob Stallman, 4-21-15, Chippewa, Time to Move Ag Forward with TPA,
http://chippewa.com/dunnconnect/news/opinion/columnists/time-to-move-agtrade-forward-with-tpa/article_2c00a9fe-85db-54a0-a103-85d0b1bf183c.html
DOA; 4-22-15
U.S. agriculture exported more than $152 billion in products last year alone,
and theres room for more growth yet. With Trade Promotion Authority
expected to take center stage on the legislative agenda this spring, farmers
and ranchers are ready for trade agreements that create business and boost
the American economy.
TPA legislation isnt new, but now is prime time for renewal. It first passed in
1974 and has been critical to the success of important agreements for U.S.
agriculture with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. Were now ready to
expand our markets even further with ambitious trade negotiations across
the globe from Asia to Europe. But we need to stand firm and show other
countries that were ready to act on final ofers at the negotiating table. TPA
creates an important partnership between the administration and Congress
to move trade agreements forward.
The U.S. economy loses out when trade agreements are crushed in the final
hour by deal-killing amendments. We weaken our standing in the global
marketplace, and hand economic leadership over to other countries. With
TPA, the administration represents our best interests before other countries
without flying solo in negotiations. Congress and the administration must
continue to shape and set priorities based on what theyre hearing directly
from American businesses.
This is where agriculture can continue to take a leading role in shaping our
trade agenda. Farmers and ranchers know the challenges we face in other
markets, and its our job to get this message to policymakers. When were all
on the same page in negotiations, the process moves swiftly as Congress can
act on final agreements with a straight up or down vote.
Limiting access to American food just doesnt make sense. Farmers and
ranchers are ready to bring their goods to new markets, but high tarifs and

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

27

non-scientific barriers place our exports at a disadvantage. Take the EU, for
example. Last year the U.S. exported $12.7 billion in agricultural products to
the EU, but we also imported $18.7 billion in agricultural products from the
EU.
These numbers dont mean we had less to sell: Our markets are simply more
open while the EU continues to let politics rather than science dictate its
trade restrictions. Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe, our trade with
Japan is just a fraction of what it could be, largely because of price
restrictions and high tarifs.
American businesses rely on trade agreements to break down barriers and
create a more balanced marketplace for all. But we must come to
negotiations with a clear agenda and the authority to back it up. The U.S. is
on the verge of completing one of our most ambitious trade agendas in
decades. TPA is essential to completing these agreements, including the
Trans Pacific Partnership with 11 other countries across the Asia/Pacific region
and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the EU.
TPA expired too long ago: Congress and the administration need to work
together to renew it before valuable trade relationships are spoiled.

China will lead in Asian trade if TPA fails


The Yomiuri Shimbun, April 22, 2015, Japan, US must pull out all stops to
ensure success in TPP talks, http://the-japannews.com/news/article/0002099224 DOA: 4-22-15
The TPP pact is significant in that it can serve to establish an economic order
that rests on transparent and fair rules within the envisaged free trade bloc,
which comprises mainly Asian countries that are expected to grow.
It is worrying to note that the standstill in the TPP negotiations comes at a
time when China is taking steady steps to cement its position as the leader
of the Asian economy.
The number of nations set to participate in the founding of the envisaged
China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank totals 57. However, it is
uncertain whether the new financial institution will be fairly managed and
whether it will properly examine loan requests.
Given this, Obama had every reason to say, ... we must be sure that we are
writing the rules for the global economy, not a country like China.
To ensure the talks among all TPP negotiators are successfully concluded, it is
essential for the United States to enact legislation granting the president
what is known as trade promotion authority (TPA). If the U.S. president does
not possess the TPA, a trade agreement reached between the U.S. and other
governments could be reduced to a dead letter because of objections from
the U.S Congress.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

28

TPA Impact GMOs Good (via TTIP)


TPIP enables the US to push Europe to open its markets to
genetically modified foods
Tom Phillot, April 22, 2015, Mother Jones, Obama is Poised to Give GMO
Meat Companies Something Theyve Always Wanted,
http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2015/04/heres-why-gmo-and-meatindustries-love-trans-pacific-partnership DOA: 4-22-15
Another massive agribusiness sector, the GMO seed pesticide industry,
potentially stands to gain from the TTIP, because the European Union
has much more restrictive regulations on rolling out novel crops
than the US; and some member states, including France, maintain
moratoriums on planting certain GM crops. Attempting to drum up support for
the fast-track bill on Capitol Hill, USDA secretary Tom Vilsack and US Trade
Representative Michael Froman have been been promising to use the
proposed treaty has a hammer to force broader acceptance in the
EU. "Vilsack said the administration would 'continue to negotiate very hard'
to prevent individual EU countries from blocking use of approved biotech
products," reports Agri-Pulse's Philip Brasher, in an account of a hearing last
week held by the Senate Finance Committee. As for Froman, he told the
committee that "we're not trying to force anybody anywhere to eat anything,
but we do think the decisions about what is safe should be made by science
and not by politics."
Vilsack has also rallied the agribusiness industry to lobby Congress in favor of
the fast-track bill, calling on "farmers, ranchers, agribusiness owners, and
other industry groups to urge Congress to pass trade promotion authority for
President Obama and to support the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade
agreement," reports the North American Meat Institute.
But what's good for the meat and biotech industries industry isn't necessarily
good for the country. As The Intercept's Lee Fang reports, Obama's Office of
the United States Trade Representative, which is negotiating the trade
deals, is shot through with former biotech-industry flacks. The fast
track bill would further curtail public debate on a treaty process that's already
been notoriously secretive. I hope Democratic senators defy the president on
this one.

Europes GMO ban undermines GMOs globally, other


countries model
GMOs solve food insecurity and famine, Europes ban
undermines their adoption in Africa
Jennifer Thompson, 8/7/06, The Australian, Use biotechnology to feed the poor, professor of molecular
and cell biology at the University of Cape Town (SA), chairperson of the Agrican Agricultural Technology

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

29

Foundation in Kenya, speaker at the Agricultural Biotechnology International Conference, Lexis, acc.
7/10/07

WE all know that much of the developing world struggles to find enough food
for its people. Yet bureaucrats in Europe sit and determine that these
countries and others should be cautious in adopting genetically modified
crops until they are deemed safe. Meanwhile thousands, if not hundreds of
thousands, of people are dying. Melbourne is hosting an international
agricultural biotechnology conference that ofers the chance to debate and,
hopefully, solve this growing schism between those in the West who want to
do the ''best'' by the rest of the world and the rest of the world who simply
want to eat. If sub-Saharan Africa continues to produce crops based on its
present agricultural practices, there will be a cereal shortage of nearly 90
million tonnes by the year 2025. Clearly so mething has to be done. Certainly
there is enough food produced in the world to feed everyone: the problem is
how to get it to the people in need? Ideally, we should stop wars and
eliminate corruption so that food gets to the right people and build roads and
railway lines to transport food from areas of feast to those of famine. But how
long will that take? In the meantime, genetically modified crops that give
increased yields are just one of the ways in which we can tackle the proble m.
How safe is food derived from GM crops? Listen to Craig Venter, a scientist
who led the team that sequenced the human genome. No food crop, he
insists, has ever been tested for human safety as rigorously as GM crops.
Indeed, in contrast, many conventional food crops can b e extremely toxic.
The bottom line is that multinational companies have little interest in
improving yields of these African crops. So we have to produce them
ourselves. In South Africa, GM crops that are being cultivated include
herbicide-resistant maize and soybean, as well as insect-resistant cotton and
maize. Each application for a commercial release is assessed by the Genetic
Resource Centre of the National Department of Agriculture on a case-by-case
basis. The cotton and maize are being grown by many small-scale farmers
who are experiencing great increases in yields. In addition, with insectresistant cotton and maize, they are saving money by decreasing their use of
insecticides -- definitely an environmental improvement. Other crops in the
pipeline include maize resistant to the African endemic maize streak virus
and cassava resistant to the African cassava mosaic virus. MSV is rampant in
many African countries, and a few years ago Uganda nearly lost its entire
crop of cassava to ACMV, which is spreading rapidly towards Nigeria, one of
Africa's most important producers of the crop. Another trait that is being
developed in important African crops is drought tolerance. The lack of water
is surely one of the greatest problems facing agriculture in Africa. Three
years ago the US, Canada and Argentina filed a complaint against the EU,
claiming the 1998 moratorium on GM crops violated a food trade treaty that
requires regulatory decisions to be made without ''undue delay'' and to be
based on science. The irony is that very few European countries grow GM
crops, yet Europe is the world's biggest importer of soybeans, used for animal
and chicken feed ever since the mad cow disease scare turned them against
using animal products for feed. But the vast majority of soybean is GM, so
although Europe doesn't grow many GM crops, it certainly imports them. In
February, the World Trade Organisation ruled in favour of the US when it
found that the EU breached international rules by restricting imports of

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

30

genetically modified crops and food made from them . The decision signalled
a victory for the agricultural biotechnology industry, which for years has been
battling opposition to its products from consumers and governments in
Europe. One of the key issues to be discussed at the ABIC meeting in
Melbourne will be how these recent developments in Europe will hopefully
diminish the schism between the developing and developed worlds. Europe
can no longer sit back, amid its mountains of extra food, and determine that
the world should be ''cautious'' about its use of GM crop s. Because
continental Europe and Scandinavia do not want GM crops and foods, they
should not prevent Africans from benefiting from this technology. Indeed,
such a position is immoral. As they sit in their offices and homes
contemplating the possible dangers of GM foods, EU bureaucrats will
efectively commit Africans and those in other developing countries to years,
even decades, of further starvation.

Starvation in Africa kills more than three times the death


toll of all the wars of the 20th century combined.

New York Times, February 20, 2007, Africa; Where is the continent headed with hunger?
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?
risb=21_T1752079328&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T
1752079331&cisb=22_T1752079330&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8320&docNo=3,
Accessed: 7/9/07.

This is from a research by The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the
United States. "Daily in the developing worlds, over 30,500 children die from
preventable diseases such as diarrhoea, acute respiratory infections or
malaria and malnutrition is associated with over half of those deaths," says
UNICEF World Health Organisation. In the last 50 years, almost 400 million
people in Africa have died from hunger and poor sanitation according to the
report. That is three times the number of people killed in all wars fought in
the 20th century. Over seven million people die each year because the
poorest African countries spend more money on debt payment than on health
and productive life. I was trying to give you a clue of how we survive in Africa,
though we get a helping hand from donors, the situation is so alarming that
the help almost leads us to no where. Hunger is a way one's body signals that
it needs food. To many Africans, are having that signal, it only becomes a
wish to have food. That is enough reason to explain stunted growth and the
underweight of children in Africa. As Europeans are getting obesity problems,
malnutrition is becoming permanently ours in Africa. So sad that 1 out of 7
people in Africa is at least sufering from malnutrition. A third of Sub-Saharan
Africa's population representing almost 200 million people go to bed without
food and 31per cent of their children under the age of five are malnourished.
One might wonder what is really causing this hunger.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

31

TPA Impact Immigration Reform/Immigration


(TPP Internal)
TPA means Congress cant stop immigration reform
Alex Newman, 4-22-15, Obama-GOP Trade Scheme Includes Unrestricted
Immigration.
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/immigration/item/20710-obamagop-trade-scheme-includes-unrestricted-immigration DOA: 4-22-15

TheestablishmentGOPbackedTransPacificPartnership(TPP),recentlytoutedbytheWhiteHouseasthe
mostprogressivetradeagreementinhistory,isalsoaTrojanhorsetoadvanceObamas
unrestrictedimmigrationagenda,accordingtopoliticalinsidersandcriticswhohavestudiedthe
secretivescheming.WiththeBigGovernmentwingoftheRepublicanPartycurrentlyplottingtoempower
theObamaadministrationwithfasttrackTradePromotionAuthoritytomakeiteasiertoimposetheTPP
andotherradicalagreementsontheAmericanpeople,opponentsarewarningthattheWhiteHouse
immigrationagendamaybecomeallbutimpossibletostop.CriticssayCongressmustrefusetoempower
Obamaontheissue.ThecontroversialTPP,ofcourse,isdisguisedasatreatytopromotefreetrade
moreproperlydescribedasmanagedorcorporatisttradeamongnationssurroundingthePacific.
However,theTPPagreement,currentlybeingnegotiatedbehindcloseddoorsbygovernments,
dictatorships,andspecialinterests,includessomemajorsurprises.As The New American
reportedrecently,aleakedchapteroftheTPPdealwouldcreateNAFTAstyleinternationaltribunals
withthepurportedauthoritytooverrideAmericanlaws,courts,andeventheU.S.andstateconstitutions
allforthebenefitofspecialinterests,foreigners,andcronycapitalists.TheAmericanpeopleandself
governmentwouldbethebiglosers.Anotherchapteroftheagreementmakingheadlinesthisweek,
meanwhile,purportstoregulateimmigrationpoliciesamongTPPsignatories.TheTransPacific
Partnershipincludesanentirechapteronimmigration,observedCurtisEllis,executivedirectorofthe
AmericanJobsAlliance,inapostforTheHill.ItisaTrojanhorseforObama'simmigrationagenda.
HousememberswhowerereadytodefundtheDepartmentofHomelandSecuritytostopPresident
Obama'sexecutiveactiononimmigrationmustnotgivehimTPA,whichhewillusetoensurehis
immigrationactionsarelockedinwhenheleavesoffice.Despiteharshrhetoricandvariousempty
threatsaboutstoppingtheObamaadministrationsexecutivedecreespurportingtoprovideamnestyfor
illegalimmigrants,RepublicanleadersinCongress,whopromptlycavedtoWhiteHousedemandson
amnesty,havefailedtoevenmentiontheTPPimmigrationschemessince2012.Infact,beyondsimply
refusingtoaddressthesubject,establishmentGOPlawmakersareworkingovertimewithestablishment
DemocratstoempowerObamawithTradePromotionAuthority.Thisweek,lawmakersunveiledS.995
tosurrendertheirconstitutionallydelegatedauthorityovertradetoObamaviafasttrackTPA.UnderTPA,
anypseudofreetradedealnegotiatedbyObama,foreigngovernments,andspecialinterestswouldmerely
getanupordownvoteinCongress,denyinglawmakersanopportunitytoamendit.Theschemewould
alsobypasstheconstitutionalmethodforratifyingtreatiestwothirdsmajoritysupportintheSenate
infavorofasimplemajorityvoteinbothhousesofCongress.Ifapproved,Obamasimmigration
machinations,includingadrasticallyexpandedtemporaryworkerprogram,wouldreportedlybe
setinstone,beyondthereachoftheAmericanpeopleortheirelectedrepresentatives.Allthese
21stcenturytradeagreementsarewrittenbythesamecorporateinterestsandnegotiators,andallhavethe
samegoal:morevisasforforeignworkers,continuedElliswiththeAmericanJobsAlliance.IfTPPgoes
intoeffect,theywillbebeyondthereachofanyfutureCongress.TheTransPacificPartnershipisanother
instanceofObamausingeverymeanshecantoadvancehisimmigrationagenda,ashesaidhewould.The
plottouseTPPasabackdoorforadvancingObamasimmigrationagendahasreceivedvirtuallyno
coveragebytheestablishmentpress.Butitisnotbecausetheinformationisnotthere.Infact,Obamas
TradeRepresentativeinchargeofnegotiatingthepactwithforeignregimesandspecialinterestseven

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

32

boastedthatthetemporaryentryguestworkerschemeisakeyfeatureofthecontroversialtrade
regimebeingnegotiated.TPPcountrieshavesubstantiallyconcludedthegeneralprovisionsofthe
chapter,theadministrationsaid,referringtotheTPPchapteronimmigrationmatters.Specific
obligationsrelatedtoindividualcategoriesofbusinesspersonareunderdiscussion.AsEllisalso
explainedinTheHill,theTPPisnotthefirsttimeObamahasattemptedtousetradeschemingtorewrite
immigrationlaw.TheU.S.SouthKoreapseudofreetraderegime,forexample,expandedtheL1visa
programblastedbytheHomelandSecurityInspectGeneralforfraudusedbycorporationstobring
moreforeignworkersintotheUnitedStates.ObamaevencelebratedhismachinationsontheL1
immigrationprogramlastmonthatacorporatesummit,sayingitallowscorporationstotemporarilymove
workersfromaforeignofficetoaU.S.officeinafaster,simplerway.Healsoboastedthathundredsof
thousandsofforeignworkerscouldbenefitfromhisscheme.Ofcourse,BigBusinessandspecialinterests
especiallytheantisovereigntyinternationalistshopingtocrushnationalsovereigntyinfavorof
regionalismandglobalismhavemadetheirsupportformassive,uncontrolledimmigrationclear.Aside
fromopenlysupportingamnestyforillegalimmigrantsalreadyinthecountry,onecorporatetrade
associationcitedinTheHillpiecesaidithopedtoabolishallbarriers:TheTPPshouldremoverestrictions
onnationalityorresidencyrequirementsfortheselectionofpersonnel.Inotherwords,defactoopen
borders.Rememberthis:nothingCongressputsinTPAwillalterwhat'salreadybeennegotiatedover
thepastsixyears,arguedEllis.ItwouldbeinexcusableforCongresstogiveObamaTPAsohecanfast
trackhisimmigrationagenda.Inacolumnpublishedlastweek,meanwhile,punditandformerBillClinton
advisorDickMorrisalsosoundedthealarmaboutthemassimmigrationbystealthagendabeingpursued
bytheObamaadministration.UndertheTransPacificPartnership,afreetradeagreement,Congresscould
losethepowertorestrictimmigration,heexplained.Wecouldfindourselvesbackintheerabeforethe
1920swhentherewerenorestrictionsonimmigrationandanyonefromanywherecouldcometoour
shores.AndRepublicans,fromMitchMcConnellandJohnBoehnerondown,areunwittinglyhelping
Obamaachievethisgoal.Morelikely,ofcourse,isthattheestablishmentwingoftheGOPiswittingly
helpingObama.AccordingtoMorris,theTPPcontainsabarelynoticedprovisionthatallowsforthe
freemigrationoflaboramongthesignatorynations.Indeed,thatelementisactuallypatternedafter
similarprovisionsinthetreatiesfoistedonEuropeanpeoplestodestroynationalsovereigntyandimpose
theunaccountablesuperstatenowknownastheEuropeanUnion.Theprovisiononimmigration,Morris
said,wouldoverridenationalimmigrationrestrictionsinthenameoffacilitatingfreeflowoflabor.That
couldeasilybeinterpretedasallowingfarmworkersandotherstoflowbackandforthwithoutlegal
regulation,headded.Asidefromtheopenborderscomponent,itwouldalsobeamassiveblowtotheU.S.
Constitution.Thetreatycouldleadtotheeffectiverepealofthespecificallyenumeratedpowergrantedto
CongressinArticleIoftheConstitutiontoregulateimmigrationandnaturalization,Morrissaid.While
thetreatyisstillbeingnegotiated,thecurrentfocusonwhitecollarimmigration[is]sufficientlyelasticto
allowopenborders.Itisodd,indeed,toseeRepublicansfallingalloverthemselvestorewardthis
presidentwithmorepower,voluntarilyreducingCongressionaloversightandincreasingexecutive
authority,Morrisargued.Attheveryleast,onewouldassumethatTPPwouldgivetheGOPbargaining
powertoforceObamatobacktrackonamnestyforpeopleimmigratingillegallyandpossiblyon
Obamacare.Butfarfromforcingconcessions,Republicansareliningupinsupportoffasttrackand,by
implication,TPP.InafollowupthisweekonNewsmaxTVsAmericasForum,Morrisalsonotedthat
theTPPimmigrationprovisionswouldallowfreeflowofworkersbetweenthecountriesbeingtargeted
forsubmissionunderthesupranationalTPPregimeCanada,Mexico,Australia,NewZealand,Japan,
Malaysia,Singapore,CommunistVietnam,Brunei,Chile,andPeru.Eventually,CommunistChinacould
join,too.ThatlittlenoticedprovisionwouldcreatewhatMorrisdescribedasunrestrictedimmigration,
allbeyondthereachofCongress.Thisishuge,Morrissaid.Ihopeeverybodylisteningtakesaction,call
yoursenatoraboutit.Phonenumbersforlawmakerscanbefoundhere.OnApril21,ExecutiveDirector
RoyBeckoftheimmigrationfocusedNumbersUSAalsoputlawmakersonnotice.PresidentObamahas
madeitabundantlyclearthathebelieveshehasvirtuallyunfetteredauthoritytochangeU.S.immigration
law,thegroupwarnedinamessagetoeverymemberofCongressexplainingthatavoteinfavorofTPA
wouldbescoredasavoteagainstAmericanworkers.Itshouldnotbesurprising,therefore,thathis
administrationisattemptingtousetheTransPacificPartnership(TPP)tradeagreementtocommitAmerica
toimmigrationincreasesthatCongresshasneitherdebatednorapproved.DespiteaU.S.laborforce

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

33

participationratethatisatitslowestlevelsince1978,PresidentObamawantstousetheTPPtofurther
reducethejobsavailabletoU.S.workersandinsteadreservecertainjobsforforeignworkersunderthe
agreement,NumbersUSAcontinued.ItisindefensiblethatCongresswouldnowconsidersurrendering
evenmoreofitsauthorityoverimmigrationtothisPresidentinordertofasttrackatradeagreementthat
willharmAmericanworkers,andthetextofwhichCongresshasnotevenseen.Asofnow,facedwithan
avalancheofoppositionfromacrossthepoliticalspectrum,itisnotclearthattheestablishmentwingofthe
GOPhasenoughvotestoramthroughthebilltoempowerObamawithTPA.However,iftheAmerican
peopledonotgeteducated,active,andorganized,thethreatofTPA,TPP,andotherschemeswillcontinue
togrow.

Immigration is key to maintaining economic growth


Center for American Progress 10 [How Immigration Reform Would
Help the Economy, p.
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2010/01/14/7130/
how-immigration-reform-would-help-the-economy/]
A new report, Raising the Floor for American Workers: The
Economic Benefits of Comprehensive Immigration Reform, by Dr. Ral
Hinojosa-Ojeda, finds that comprehensive immigration reform that
includes a legalization program for unauthorized immigrants and enables a future flow of legal workers

would result in a large economic benefit a cumulative $1.5 trillion in added U.S.
gross domestic product over 10 years. In stark contrast, a deportation- only policy would result in a loss of
$2.6 trillion in GDP over 10 years. Hinojosa uses a computable general equilibrium model based on the

Comprehensive
immigration reform that includes a legalization program for unauthorized immigrants would
stimulate the U.S. economy . Immigration reform would increase
U.S. GDP by at least 0.84 percent. This would translate into at least a
$1.5 trillion cumulative increase in GDP over 10 years, which includes approximately
$1.2 trillion in consumption and $256 billion in investment. The benefits of additional GDP
growth would be spread broadly throughout the U.S. economy , but
historical experience of the 1986 legalization program, and finds that:

immigrant-heavy sectors such as textiles, electronic equipment, and construction would see particularly

The higher earning power of newly legalized workers


would mean increased tax revenues of $4.5 billion to $5.4 billion in the
first three years. Higher personal income would also generate increased
consumer spendingenough to support 750,000 to 900,000 jobs in the United
States. Experience shows that legalized workers open bank accounts, buy
homes, and start businesses, further stimulating the U.S. economy.
Comprehensive immigration reform increases all workers wages. The real wages of lessskilled newly legalized workers would increase by roughly $4,405
per year, while higher-skilled workers would see their income
increase $6,185 per year. The wages of native-born high-skill and low-skill U.S. workers also
large increases.

increase modestly under comprehensive immigration reform because the wage floor rises for all workers.
Legalized workers invest more in their human capital, including education, job training, and Englishlanguage skills, making them even more productive workers and higher earners. Mass deportation is
costly, lowers wages, and harms the U.S. economy. Mass deportation would reduce U.S. GDP by 1.46
percent, amounting to a cumulative $2.6 trillion loss in GDP over 10 years, not including the actual costs of
deportation. The Center for American Progress has estimated that mass deportation would cost $206
billion to $230 billion over five years. Wages would rise for less-skilled native-born workers under a mass
deportation scenario, but higher-skilled natives wages would decrease, and there would be widespread job

Studies from various researchers with divergent political


perspectives confirm these findings. A report by the libertarian CATO
loss.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

34

Institute using a similar CGE model came to startlingly similar


conclusions. CATO found that legalization would yield significant
income gains for American workers and households. Legalization
would boost the incomes of U.S. households by $180 billion in 2019.
CATO also concluded that tighter restrictions and a reduction in lessskilled immigration would impose large costs on native-born
Americans by shrinking the overall economy and lowering worker
productivity.

Economic decline risks multiple global nuclear wars


OHanlon 12 Kenneth G. Lieberthal, Director of the John L.
Thornton China Center and Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy
and Global Economy and Development at the Brookings
Institution, former Professor at the University of Michigan
[The Real National Security Threat: America's Debt, Los Angeles Times, July
10th, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/07/10-economyforeign-policy-lieberthal-ohanlon]
Alas, globalization and automation trends of the last generation have increasingly called the American
dream into question for the working classes. Another decade of underinvestment in what is required to
remedy this situation will make an isolationist or populist president far more likely because much of the
country will question whether an internationalist role makes sense for America especially if it costs us
well over half a trillion dollars in defense spending annually yet seems correlated with more job losses.
Lastly,

American economic weakness undercuts U.S. leadership abroad .

Other countries sense our weakness

and wonder about our purport 7ed decline. If this

perception becomes more widespread, and the case that we are in decline becomes more persuasive,
countries will begin to

take actions that reflect their skepticism about

America's future . Allies and friendswill doubt our commitment and may
pursue nuclear weapons for their own security, for example; adversaries
will sense opportunity and be less restrained in throwing around
their weight

in their own neighborhoods. The crucial Persian Gulf and Western Pacific regions will

less stable . Major war will become more likely. When running for
president last time, Obama eloquently articulated big foreign policy visions:
healing America's breach with the Muslim world, controlling global climate
likely become

change , dramatically curbing global poverty through development aid,


moving toward a world free of nuclear weapons . These were, and
remain, worthy if elusive goals. However, for Obama or his successor, there is
now amuch more urgent big-picture issue: restoring U.S. economic
strength. Nothing else is really possible if that
fundamentalprerequisite to effective foreign policy is not
reestablished .

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

35

TPA Impact Internet Freedom


TPA key to Internet freedom
Senator Ron Wyden, 4-22-15, Wired, Senator Ron Wyden: The Free Internet
is a Global Priority, http://www.wired.com/2015/04/senator-ron-wyden-freeinternet-trade/ DOA: 4-22-15
In recent weeks, some of my allies in the internet community have
asked why I am working on the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities
and Accountability Act, which they see as harmful to the internet. Many of
these activists have stood shoulder-to-shoulder with me in the past as I
fought against powerful special interests. I appreciate their views and their
work to keep the internet open and free.
Let me explain my position clearly.
In my view, the trade promotion authority bill I introduced last week, along
with the Trans Pacific Partnership that is still being negotiated, both
present real opportunities to preserve and protect an open internet
around the world.
Information Must Be Free to Move Freely
Our trade promotion authority bill sets new priorities to ensure
information can flow freely across national borders. Currently,
repressive regimes in Russia, China and elsewhere are conspiring to
build walls around the internet that cut off the flow of information at
national borders. Even democratic regimes with a lesser history of honoring
free speech than the U.S. are proposing unacceptable restrictions on the
internet. If the United States lets these countries set the standard that
the internet should be subdivided into country-sized pieces, it will
devastate digital entrepreneurs in the U.S. and squelch one of the
worlds most powerful avenues for free speech.
That is far from the only digital issue at stake in upcoming trade deals. I
worked with the internet community to ensure that the United States will
never ask for or accept a trade agreement that contains provisions like those
in PIPA and SOPA, which would have broken the internet to enforce copyright
provisions.
I successfully pushed U.S. trade negotiators to seek new provisions
on limitations and exceptions on copyright in the Trans-Pacific
Partnership negotiation. These new provisions are consistent with what is
known as fair use, and are vital for researchers, journalists, and an
informed public.
I pushed the U.S. Trade Representative to ensure that nothing in any
trade deal the U.S. signs will undermine net neutrality, which the
internet community fought so hard to secure over the past year. These are
major victories, victories that export the pillars of the open internet around
the world.
At the same time, I fully agree with some critics who have legitimate
concerns about what they saw in draft chapters of the Trans-Pacific
Partnership trade deal with 11 Asian-Pacific nations, and what they fear might

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

36

be in the text that is not yet public. Some of the red flags that have been
raised relate to concerns around current U.S. law and how it is enforced. And
some U.S. laws, like the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, includes provisions
that go too far to protect copyright at the expense of free speech, digital
security and the public good.
Part of the solution is to fix our laws here at home to set a better balance
between technology and other important values. That is why I introduced a
new bill last week to rewrite the restrictive anti-circumvention language in
DMCA. This law makes us more vulnerable to cyberattacks by criminalizing
research into security holes in our software and electronics. It makes it far too
difficult to create accessible versions of e-books and other materials for those
with impaired vision and other disabilities. And it simply doesnt reflect the
realities of todays digital economy. This bill makes it clear that the US can roll
back overly broad IP laws even after they are subjects in a trade negotiation.

Censorship unsustainable wrecks Chinese growth and soft power

Custer 12

C. Custer, Chinese cultural expert, degree in East Asian studies, Tech In Asia,
December 18, 2012, "Web of Failure: How Chinas Internet Policies Have
Doomed Chinese Soft Power", http://www.techinasia.com/failure-chinainternet-policies-doomed-chinese-soft-power/
* modified for ableist language
A Death Blow to Business

Whats efective in fostering stability is, Ill admit, debatable, but its less
debatable that Chinas internet policies have had a strong negative impact on
businesses. If the recent blocking of foreign VPNs proves to be the new
normal and we have every sign that that is the case I expect numerous
foreign businesses to move some or all of their operations out of China. In addition
to the fact that many businesses use blocked web services for
communication and marketing, VPNs provide a crucial layer of security
to corporate communications by encrypting the connection of those
using the service. Without that layer of security, companies worried about cyber
attacks, IP theft, and corporate espionage are going to be pretty exposed , and some of
them will inevitably decide that the advantages of doing business in
China are outweighed by the potential costs of having products or plans stolen by
competitors.
(True, many businesses use their own VPNs rather than the commerciallyavailable ones that are currently blocked. But the Chinese government has
said that all foreign-run VPNs are illegal unless they register with and are
approved by MIIT, which none of them have.)
But the Great Firewall doesnt just damage foreign companies in
China, it is also crippling [damaging] to Chinese companies that are looking to
expand globally. Without access to social media tools like Facebook and
Twitter, Chinese web companies are at a significant disadvantage when it comes to
everything from market research to actual marketing. And although companies
can establish overseas offices or find other ways to circumvent censorship
and access these platforms, with all of them so widely blocked in China,

Stefan Bauschard
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37

theres little impetus for Chinese developers to try to work with them.
Chinese startups are focused on developing products that work with
Chinese social platforms like Weibo, and thats great, but it ultimately limits
the scalability and global relevance of their products. At present, Chinas regulatory
environment might encourage the development of some truly remarkable
domestic services, but it is difficult to imagine a globally dominant web
startup from China because the Chinese internet is so thoroughly walled of
from the rest of the world.
Soft Power in Chains
Of course, the Great Firewall does more than just prevent Chinese web services

from going global; it is also a huge hindrance for Chinese cultural exports. I
was reminded of this just recently while writing about the award Koreas
Ministry of Culture gave to Google because Youtube has been such an
efective platform to spread Korean culture. In China, the success of Korean
pop star PSYs Gangnam Style video prompted a lot of discussion about
whether China could ever produce its own PSY. Im not sure what the answer
to that question is, but it is irrelevant, because even if China could produce
its own PSY, it could never export it. PSYs song exploded in large part
because his video went viral on Youtube which surprise, surprise is
blocked in China.
Now granted, even if VPNs were totally blocked, a Chinese PSY could just fly
out of China with a USB stick and upload his video to Youtube from abroad.
But I highly doubt the global response would be the same, because whether
were aware of it or not, a big part of enjoying any cultural experience is
interaction. Gangnam Style was catchy and weird certainly China can
produce something like that but it ultimately also got the Western media to
interact with Korea and Korean culture, and we all learned a little something
about the Gangnam district and Korean satire along the way.
That is the part of Gangnam Style that China could never produce, because
the government actively discourages that sort of interaction. While it wants
to promote Chinese culture, it does not believe that pop music and
certainly not politically satirical pop music has any place in that
promotional efort. Instead, the government pushes Confucius and other
valuable-but-unappealing-and-mostly-irrelevant aspects of Chinese
culture to Westerners while keeping its citizens and whatever culture they create
quiet. Chinese and foreign net users are carefully segregated , and while China is
happy to use foreign platforms to promote the party line through official
channels like Xinhua, it is unwilling to trust its own people with access
to almost any foreign social communication platforms.
The problem (for Chinas government) is that culture doesnt work that
way . Great cultural works are rarely produced by the state; they are
produced by artists, creatives, academics, entrepreneurs and other regular people.
Chinese artists have produced many great works, but Chinas government
is generally not willing to let these people communicate directly with
the outside world. In an age where global communication and
cultural broadcasting is simpler and more direct than ever before,
China has shackled its own soft power by ensuring that its cultural
producers have access to almost none of these new platforms.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

38

True soft power in fact, true culture cannot come without discussion and
interchange. When was the last time you saw a really powerful movie or read a

really powerful book and then discussed it with no one? Culture is by


definition a discussion, an exchange, and a kind of ongoing
communication. But Chinas government has for the past several years
been attempting to shove its own message into the global internets
cultural exchange while doing what it can to keep the West out of Chinas
culture and keep Chinese people from easily interacting with the outside
world. That is why Xinhua has a Twitter account but the average Zhou cannot.
Its also why Xinhuas Twitter account isnt actually following anyone. China is
interested in using social media services only to broadcast itself; it has no
interest in interacting with the outside world in a meaningful way.
No Hope for the Future?
It is a terrible sign that Chinas crackdown on VPNs does not seem to
have lessened after the conclusion of the 18th Party Congress. And at the
same time, despite a couple years of massive expenditures in return
for almost nothing in the way of results, China has shown no signs of
wanting to adjust its shut-up-and-let-me-talk-dammit approach to soft power.
Chinas state media frequently complains that the West doesnt understand
China, but China has steadfastly refused to use internet platforms like Twitter
and Facebook to attempt to increase that understanding in any meaningful
way. And although the government remains dedicated to improving Chinese
soft power, I have seen no signs that it is inclined to attempt a shift in
strategy anytime soon.
In the long term, I suspect the Great Firewall will prove to be domestically
unsustainable. But until the wall comes down, Chinas attempts at soft power are little
more than a pipe dream , and its economic growth, especially in the
tech arena, is ultimately going to be limited by the severe barriers it has erected
between itself and the world at large.

Chinese soft power solves territorial conflicts that escalate

Zhang 12
Wanfa Zhang is assistant professor in the Department of Humanities and
Communication at Florida Institute of Technology and previously was a
lecturer at China Foreign Afairs University, Asian Perspective, 2012, 36, "Has
Beijing Started to Bare Its Teeth? Chinas Tapping of Soft Power Revisited",
615-39
All the evidence above supports the thesis that Beijing has not slowed its charm
offensive, even while its hard power has been undergoing explosive growth.
Nevertheless, whether Beijing should or will continue with the current policy
in the future depends on an evaluation of its successes and failures.
Evaluation of the Policys Efficacy In the past, various scholars used a handful
of metrics to assess the efficacy of Chinas soft power. These eforts are
laudable; however, due to various limitations that Blanchard and Lu point out
in their introduction to this special issue, the metrics fail to reflect adequately
the efficacy of Beijings soft-power enterprise. In Chinas case, soft power
operates at two levels: high-level strategic goals and low-level tactical
objectives. If measured separately, efficacy will rate high at the strategic

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

39

level but show mixed results at the tactical level. Successes with High-Level
Strategic Goals Beijing undoubtedly has achieved success so far if we measure
soft-power efficacy against its high-level goals: dissipating the China threat theory
and sustaining a peaceful international environment, especially around Chinas borders ,
that can facilitate Chinas continuous rise and economic expansion. Beijings
grip on domestic political power is still secure and unchallenged. Granted that
the China threat theme has reared its head occasionally over the past few
years, but it has never become sufficiently influential to undercut the peaceful
international milieu that China badly covets. Moreover, although Chinas military
power has grown exponentially since the mid-1990s, other nations, especially
Chinas neighbors, have not found it necessary to form a straightforward antiChina bloc. Nor have they engaged in a direct arms race with Beijing. All the
hot spots around China, notably North Korea and the South China Sea, are under
control and mostly stable even though we see occasional tensions, especially since
the second half of 2011. The explosive Taiwan issue has been defused due to
the victory of the prounification Nationalist Party in Taiwans 2008 elections
and Beijings carefully calibrated policy toward the island. And Chinas relations
with its northern and western neighbors in Central Asia are especially stable . An
immediate national security threat is unlikely in the near future. The world
market remains open to Chinese goods. Foreign investments, raw materials,
and energy continue to flow into China. Beijings success in presenting
itself as a nonthreatening power has made an indispensable
contribution to these positive developments.

Extinction
Wittner 11 (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State
University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor
or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and
book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace & Change, a journal of
peace research., 11/28/2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?",
www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will
be used. After all, for centuries national conflicts have led to wars,
with nations employing their deadliest weapons. The current deterioration
of U.S. relations with China might end up providing us with yet another example of this
phenomenon. The gathering tension between the U nited S tates and China
is clear enough. Disturbed by Chinas growing economic and military strength,
the U.S. government recently challenged Chinas claims in the South China Sea,

increased the U.S. military presence in Australia, and deepened U.S.


military ties with other nations in the Pacific region. According to
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the United States was asserting our own
position as a Pacific power. But need this lead to nuclear war? Not necessarily.
And yet, there are signs that it could. After all, both the United States and
China possess large numbers of nuclear weapons. The U.S. government

threatened to attack China with nuclear weapons during the Korean


War and, later, during the conflict over the future of Chinas offshore
islands, Quemoy and Matsu. In the midst of the latter confrontation,

Stefan Bauschard
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40

President Dwight Eisenhower declared publicly, and chillingly, that U.S.


nuclear weapons would be used just exactly as you would use a bullet or
anything else. Of course, China didnt have nuclear weapons then. Now that
it does, perhaps the behavior of national leaders will be more temperate. But
the loose nuclear threats of U.S. and Soviet government officials during the
Cold War, when both nations had vast nuclear arsenals, should convince us
that, even as the military ante is raised, nuclear saber-rattling persists. Some
pundits argue that nuclear weapons prevent wars between nucleararmed nations; and, admittedly, there havent been very manyat least
not yet. But the Kargil War of 1999, between nuclear-armed India and
nuclear-armed Pakistan, should convince us that such wars can occur.
Indeed, in that case, the conflict almost slipped into a nuclear war.
Pakistans foreign secretary threatened that, if the war escalated, his country
felt free to use any weapon in its arsenal. During the conflict, Pakistan did
move nuclear weapons toward its border, while India, it is claimed, readied its
own nuclear missiles for an attack on Pakistan. At the least, though, dont
nuclear weapons deter a nuclear attack? Do they? Obviously, NATO
leaders didnt feel deterred, for, throughout the Cold War, NATOs
strategy was to respond to a Soviet conventional military attack on
Western Europe by launching a Western nuclear attack on the
nuclear-armed Soviet Union. Furthermore, if U.S. government officials
really believed that nuclear deterrence worked, they would not have
resorted to championing Star Wars and its modern variant, national
missile defense. Why are these vastly expensiveand probably
unworkablemilitary defense systems needed if other nuclear powers
are deterred from attacking by U.S. nuclear might? Of course, the
bottom line for those Americans convinced that nuclear weapons
safeguard them from a Chinese nuclear attack might be that the U.S.
nuclear arsenal is far greater than its Chinese counterpart. Today, it is
estimated that the U.S. government possesses over five thousand nuclear
warheads, while the Chinese government has a total inventory of roughly
three hundred. Moreover, only about forty of these Chinese nuclear weapons
can reach the United States. Surely the United States would win any
nuclear war with China. But what would that victory entail? A nuclear
attack by China would immediately slaughter at least 10 million
Americans in a great storm of blast and fire, while leaving many more dying
horribly of sickness and radiation poisoning. The Chinese death toll in a
nuclear war would be far higher. Both nations would be reduced to smoldering,
radioactive wastelands. Also, radioactive debris sent aloft by the nuclear explosions
would blot out the sun and bring on a nuclear winter around the globe
destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating
chaos and destruction.

Defense is wrong

Burnett 14
Alistair Burnett is the editor of The World Tonight, a BBC News program, Real
Clear World, February 12, 2014, "Will Asia Repeat Europe's Mistakes?",
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2014/02/12/will_asia_repeat_europes_
mistakes_110290.html

Stefan Bauschard
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41

Yet tension in East Asia is rising - especially between China and Japan. Unlike
relations between Germany and Britain a hundred years ago, the present-day
tension between China and Japan has its roots in past conflicts between the two
countries.

Many Chinese do not think the Japanese leadership has fully accepted the
country's responsibility for the invasion of China in the 1930s and 1940s.
Chinese students learn about the widespread atrocities committed by
Japanese forces in gory detail, while Japanese nationalists play down the
details and China says many Japanese textbooks whitewash the invasion - all
of which means there's been no real reconciliation. China and Japan also have
a long-running territorial dispute over control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
in the East China Sea arising out of the first Sino-Japanese war of the modern
era in the 1890s. The islands were annexed by Japan after that war in 1895,
but 50 years later, after the Second World War, unlike other territories
conquered by the Japanese, they were not returned to China, but instead
occupied by the Americans. By the time the United States decided it didn't
need the islands in the early 1970s, China was ruled by the Communist Party
and Japan was a US ally, so Washington returned the islands to Japanese
control.
Growing more powerful in recent years, China has increased pressure on
Japan to acknowledge there is a dispute over the islands. China now regularly
sends ships and planes to patrol near the islands, the Japanese respond with
patrols of their own, and the likelihood of an accidental clash is increasing.
So even if comparisons with 1914 are of the mark, conflict between China
and Japan could still be a possibility.
Abe is a seen as a nationalist who would like Japan to move on from the
pacifism imposed on it by the U nited S tates after 1945. He may not go as
far as changing the pacifist elements of the constitution, but he wants to
change Japan's defense posture, so the armed forces take a more assertive
role - up to now, Japan has relied heavily on the United States to defend the
areas around it - and he justifies this by pointing at China's growing military
capabilities and doubts over Beijing's intentions.
In Beijing, Xi is focused on reforming the economy and cleaning up the
corruption that's undermining the Communist Party's legitimacy, which would
suggest he does not want a war. But for his reforms to succeed, maintaining
tension with Tokyo and a sense of threat from abroad is useful as it encourages loyalty to
the center. Xi will also need support of the military and security apparatus for

his reforms as he takes on vested interests in the party leadership, provincial


governments and large state enterprises, and this makes compromise with Japan
more difficult. Chinese public opinion is also hostile to Japan, evident in opinion
polls, social media and the ease with which anti-Japanese boycotts occur.
So, domestic politics as well as geopolitics are driving both China and Japan to be more
assertive, and this worries Washington. When Abe visited the controversial

Yasukuni shrine for Japanese war dead at the end of December, it not only
stoked tension with China and South Korea which issued strong protests, the
United States publicly stated it was "disappointed."
In his comments at Davos, Abe, presumably thinking of the strong trade links
between his country and China, said the economic links between Germany and
Britain did not prevent war in 1914. Some listening to the Japanese prime minister

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

42

came away with the impression he thinks pecuniary interests may not be strong
enough to deter a military clash.

If a conflict between Beijing and Tokyo were to break out, the US could not
bank on its other ally in the region, Seoul, given the tense relations between
South Korea and Japan which have their own territorial and historical
disputes. So Washington would choose between honoring its defense treaty
with Japan and avoiding direct conflict with China. As Washington would stand
to lose the trust of many allies in the region and is not noted for eating
humble pie, the odds would suggest support for Japan. So if there is any parallel
with 1914, it could turn out to be in how cascading alliance commitments can
cause a wider war.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

43

TPA Impact Manufacturing


TPA critical to the revitalization of manufacturing
Mallory Micelitch, 4-21-15, Shop Floor, TPA to Supercharge US Jobs and
Economic Growth, http://www.shopfloor.org/2015/04/nams-dempsey-on-cspan-tpa-to-supercharge-u-s-jobs-and-economic-growth/33643 DOA: 4-21-15
LindaDempsey,vicepresidentofinternationaleconomicaffairsattheNAM,appearedon

CSPANs
WashingtonJournalthismorningtodiscusstheimportanceofpassingTPAtoensureU.S.negotiators
havetheabilitytobringbackstrongtradeagreementsthatopenglobalmarkets,leveltheplaying
fieldformanufacturersintheU.S.andincreaseglobalcompetitiveness.Weneednewtrade
agreementstosuperchargeourexports,sales,andopportunitiesinagrowingglobaleconomy,said
Dempsey.TPAthetradeagreementthatwasintroducedonabipartisanbasislastweekisexactlythe
kindoflegislationthatallowsthesetradedealstobenegotiatedbyCongress.Existingfreetrade
agreementsthateliminatetradebarriersandprotectinnovationallowU.S.manufacturerstopowerexports
tooverseasmarkets,explainedDempsey.Forexample,nearlyhalfofallU.S.exportsarepurchasedbythe
20countriesthattheU.S.hasestablishedfreetradeagreementswith,andtheU.S.enjoysa$55billion
manufacturingtradesurpluswiththesecountries.However,these20countriesonlyencompassaboutten
percentoftheworldsGDP,sixpercentoftheworldspopulationUntilwegetTradePromotion
Authority,Americanmanufacturersareontheoutside,saidDempsey.Wearewatchingour
competitorsinGermanyandaroundtheworldbeabletobemorecompetitiveinoverseasmarkets.In
termsofU.S.jobs,Dempseycontinued,ifwearegoingtosustainletalonegrowjobs,weneedtosell
more,andthegrowthisoverseas.Andthesearegoodpayingjobs.Manufacturingjobsingeneralpay
about23percentmorethanaveragejobsintheU.S.economy,andmanufacturingjobslinkedtoexport
intensiveindustrieshaveawagepremiumabovethat.ThebottomlineisthatTPAiscrucialinpromoting
goodpayingjobsandeconomicgrowth.CongressshouldactswiftlytoimplementTPAanddevelophigh
standardtradeagreementsthatreducebarriersandallowmanufacturersaccesstogrowingoverseas
markets.Whenourmanufacturerscancompeteonalevelplayingfield,wewillwinallthetime,said
Dempsey.

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

44

TPA Aff

Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

45

NU No TPA
Not enough TPA votes in the House
Daniel Newhauser, 4-21-15, National Journal, Trade Deal Gives Obama,
GOP Leaders a Vote-Counting Test,
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/trade-deal-gives-obama-gopleaders-a-vote-counting-test-20150421 DOA 4-21-15
TheWhiteHouseandHouseRepublicanswillsoonhaveanothermathproblem.WiththeSenate
closinginonafasttracktradeagreement,HouseGOPleadersfaceakeytestinthecomingweeksof
whethertheycanworkwithPresidentObamatosidestepDemocraticoppositionandapproveoneofthe
administration'stopforeignpolicyobjectives.ButastheinkdriesonabipartisanSenatecompromise
releasedlastweek,thepathtopassageremainsmurkyintheHouse.Republicanshavelongsaidthey
cannotputupthevotestopassafasttrackagreementwithonlymembersoftheirconferencevoting
infavor.TheyhaveinsteadcalledontheWhiteHousetostepuptheirlobbyingeffortsonHouse
Democratstoeasepassage."We'vebeenclearforayearortwonowwe'regoingtoneedDemocratstoget
thisdone.That'sstilltrue,"saidBrendanBuck,spokesmanforHouseWaysandMeansChairmanPaul
Ryan.Butpartisanpotshotsalreadyare

castingdoubtonthetwoparties'abilitytoworktogether.
DemocratssayGOPleadershiphasn'ttoldthemhowmanyoftheirparty'svotesthey'llneed,and
they'recastingthedeal'sstilluncertainprospectsasanotherexampleofSpeakerJohnBoehner's
inabilitytocorralhisowncaucus.

Republicans and Democrats opposed


Daniel Newhauser, 4-21-15, National Journal, Trade Deal Gives Obama,
GOP Leaders a Vote-Counting Test,
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/trade-deal-gives-obama-gopleaders-a-vote-counting-test-20150421 DOA 4-21-15
Ihavenoideahowmanyvotestheyhaveontheirside,"saidaDemocraticleadershipaide."Ithink
it'salittleridiculousthattheythinktheyneedthatmanyDemocraticvotesforsomethingthatisso
fundamentaltotheirreasonforevenbeinghere,whichisfreetrade."ThefasttrackdealObamaisseeking
isknownasTradePromotionAuthority,whichwouldgiveCongressanupordownvoteontradedeals
negotiatedbytheadministration,butremovelegislators'abilitytotweaksuchagreements.TheWhite
HouseandHouseRepublicanleadershipseeTPAasintegraltomovingforwardontheTransPacific
Partnership,a12nationagreementbeinghammeredoutbynegotiators.ManyDemocratsinCongress,
however,areskepticalofgivinguptheirroleininfluencingtradeandevenoftheTPPdealatlarge.
Conservatives,meanwhile,arewaryofgivingObamamoreunilateralpower,especiallyastheybattle
executiveactionsonimmigrationandhealthcareinthecourts.

NU Currency manipulation fight


Dow Jones, 4-21-15, Democratic Fissures Appear in Pacific Pact,
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/democratic-fissures-appear-in-pacific-tradepact-20150421-01291 DOA; 4-21-15
AblocofcongressionalDemocratsisbuckingWhiteHousepressuretoexcludeconcernsover
currencymanipulationfromabilltoexpeditea12nationtradepact,wideningariftbetween
PresidentBarackObamaandhisbasethatthreatensthetradedeal'spassage.

Stefan Bauschard
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46

TheWhiteHouseandRepublicanshaveformedanunusualallianceinfavoroffasttracklegislationtoput
theproposed12nationPacifictradedealtoanupordownvotewithoutamendments.ButasMr.Obama
seekstobuildacoalitiontopassthetradebillincomingweeks,hefacesathreatfromNewYorkSen.
ChuckSchumerandhisDemocraticallies.Mr.Schumer,whohaslongpushedformeasurestocrack
downonChina'scurrencymanagementpractices,seesthetradelegislationasthelastchancetotake
actionasChinarisesasabigeconomiccompetitoroftheU.S.,withAmericanjobstiedtohighend
manufacturingandservicesinthebalance."Ifnotnow,when?"Mr.Schumersaidinaninterview.The
comingtradedebateoverwhethertogivetheWhiteHousefasttrackauthorityforthefirsttimein13years,
hesaid,is"perhapsthelasttraintoleavethestationwhenitcomestotherapaciouspoliciesofChina."The
currencyfightisturningtheWhiteHouse'smajorsellingpointfortheTransPacificPartnership
dealonitshead.TheObamaadministrationportraysthepactwhichwouldincludenationssuchas
Australia,Canada,Japan,MalaysiaandVietnamasastrategiccounterweighttoChina,whichisn'tpartof
thetradedeal.Butifthat'stheaim,Mr.Schumerandothersask,whynotgoafterthecurrencyleverthat
criticssaytheAsiannationhaslongusedtogiveitsexportsanedge.Foryears,U.S.officialsand
lawmakershavecriticizedChinaforholdingitsyuandownagainstthedollar.Butsomeeconomistssay
Beijing'sgradualappreciationoftheyuanoverthepastdecademeansthevalueofChina'scurrencyisnow
roughlyinlinewithmarketfundamentals.AlthoughlastyearsawChinainterveningtokeepalidonthe
valueoftheyuanamidconcernastrongercurrencywasunderminingthecountry'sexportsU.S.officials
sayBeijingappearstohavelargelyrefrainedfromsuchinterventionsincethen.InalettertoSenate
committeeleadersTuesday,TreasurySecretaryJacobLewsaidothercountries"havemadeclearthatthey
willnotsupporttheintroductionofenforceablecurrencyprovisionsinthecontextoftradeagreements,and
specifically,theTPP."ThebattlebetweentheDemocratandtheWhiteHouseisespeciallyseriousbecause
Mr.Schumerholdssignificantlegislativeleverage.HiscurrencylegislationhaspassedtheSenate
previously,andheisnowthreateningtoofferitasanamendmentinaWednesdaycommitteevoteor
ontheflooroftheSenate.Ifapproved,theamendmentcouldweakenthechancesfortheoverallfast
trackbill,whichwouldbecomelesspalatabletofasttracksupporters,includingsomebusiness
groups.TheWhiteHouseanditsalliesareseekingtoheadoffMr.Schumer,forfearthataddingcurrency
rulestotheAsianegotiationscouldsourthetalkswhenthey'reclosetocompletion.Theyalsoworrythat
rulesintradeagreementsrestrictingmonetarypolicy,evenifnarrowlytailored,couldbackfireby
restrictinglegitimateeffortsbycentralbankstostimulategrowthbycuttinginterestratesandother
measures.ThefirsttestwillcomeWednesday,whentheSenateFinanceCommitteeassemblestovoteon
thelegislation,alsoknownasTradePromotionAuthority.SenateFinanceCommitteeChairmanOrrin
Hatch(R.,Utah)hasbeenworkingtosteerMr.Schumerawayfromofferingtheamendmentbypromising
toholdhearingsinstead,butthatisunlikelytosatisfyMr.Schumer.Mr.HatchwillruleWednesdayon
whetheranamendmentfromMr.Schumerisinorder.

No support from Democrats


Fusion.net, 4-22-15, http://fusion.net/story/124373/tpp-tpa-trade-deal-obamawarren-hillary/
HarryReid.ElizabethWarren.EvenHillaryClinton.PresidentBarackObamacantseemtogetany
powerfulmemberofhisownpartytosupporthimonhistradeinitiative,complicatingthechancesforwhat
heseesasamajorlatetermwinforhislegacy.Clintonhasbackedoffhersupportoftheloomingtrade
initiativeonthecampaigntrail.ReidgaveObamaaquickhellnowhenaskedbyreportersifhe
supportedthedeal.AndWarren,theprogressivefavoriteandsenatorfromMassachusetts,hasgoneonthe
warpath,framingtheissueinalargerfightoverincomeinequality.TheDemocraticinfightinghasopened
upcomparisonstotheRepublicanPartyscivilwaroverthepastfewyears.WellIguesstheydont
wantittohappen,ObamatoldMSNBCsChrisMatthewsinaninterviewonTuesdayaboutthe
Democraticopposition,ashetriedtoassuageliberalsconcernsaboutthedeal.AndIloveElizabeth.
Werealliesonawholehostofissues.Butsheswrongonthis.

Stefan Bauschard
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47

TPP Answers
Car, rice disputes block TPP
Arkansas Online, 4-22-15,
http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2015/apr/22/u-s-japan-fail-to-hit-tradedeal-201504/?f=business
USandJapaneseofficialsfailedtoreachagreementinmarathonbilateraltradetalksinTokyo,a
setbackforPrimeMinisterShinzoAbeshopesofarrivingforasummitinWashingtonnextweekwitha
pactinhand.USTradeRepresentativeMichaelFromanleftTokyoafternegotiationsconcludedaround
4amyesterday,withdifferencesremainingovervehicleandriceimports.FromanhadtravelledtoJapan
onSundayfortwodaysoftalkswithJapaneseEconomyMinisterAkiraAmaritohelppavethewayfora
broaderAsiaPacificagreementinvolving10othernations.Differencesontrademattershave
substantiallynarrowed,FromansaidbeforeleavingtheJapanesecapital.Thetwocountrieshavereached
stagenineoutof10inthediscussions,Abesaidinatelevisioninterview.Theytriedtospinitina
positiveway,butwhatseemstobeprettyclearisthatthereisnobreakthrough,saidJamesBrown,an
assistantprofessorforinternationalaffairsatTempleUniversityinTokyo.Onaforeignpolicylevel,this
isamajordisappointmentaheadofAbestriptotheUSthatbeginsonSunday.Theslowprogressby
JapanandtheUSinadvancingtheTransPacificPartnership(TPP)tradepactinordertoremainacentreof
economicgravityinAsiacomesasChinaenhancesitsowncloutbyluringmorethan50countriestojoina
newChinaledregionalinfrastructurebank(AIIB).JapanandtheUShavebeentryingtoovercome
differencessinceJapanfirstsaiditwouldseektojointheTPPin2013.Speakingafterthetalksended,
AmaritoldreportersthathewouldmeetagainwithFromanifneededbeforeameetingofall12nations
involvedwiththeTPP.Hedidntindicatewhensuchameetingcouldbeheld.

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48

A2: Other Scenarios


Democratic opposition growing
Bloomberg, 4-21-15, Obama Calls Democratic Foes of Trade Deal Wrong and
Misleading, http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-22/obamacalls-democratic-foes-of-trade-deal-wrong-and-misleading DOA: 4-21-15
The roundtable discussion with business leaders was part of an efort by the
Obama administration to give momentum to an accord on bipartisan
legislation to make it easier for the U.S. to negotiate trade deals. Obama is
facing growing resistance from his fellow Democrats in Congress as
he seeks to close a deal with 11 other nations on a Trans-Pacific
Partnership trade accord, a top priority in his second term. In the interview,
Obama faulted some of the deals most vocal critics, all top
Democrats, including Warren of Massachusetts, Senate Minority Leader
Harry Reid of Nevada and Senator Charles Schumer of New York. Several
Democrats have argued that the trade deals would harm workers and
depress wages, benefiting only large corporations and foreign nations.

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49

TPA Thumper
TPA most polarizing issue
Big News Network, 4-21-15,
http://www.bignewsnetwork.com/index.php/sid/232155067 DOA: 4-21-15
Congressional debate on Trade Promotion Authority and the Trans-Pacific
Partnership promises to be the most raucous and polarizing on any
issue likely to be taken up by U.S. lawmakers this year.

TPA vote in late April


Adam Behsudi, 4-21-15, Politico, Trade rumble: Democrats stuck between
Warren, Obama, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/dems-stuckbetween-warren-obama-in-trade-rumble-117211.html?hp=rc1_4 DOA: 4-2115
The fast-track bill, introduced last week by Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and
Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), is scheduled for a markup on Wednesday in
advance of a full floor vote as early as late April. The House Ways and
Means Committee, where Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is a fast-track
champion, will review legislation on Wednesday ahead of an expected
markup on Thursday.

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Nuclear Deal Aff

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No Nuclear Deal
Infighting on sanctions relief blocks a deal
NewsMax, 4-22-15, Iran Sanctions May be a Deal Breaker as Nuclear Talks
Resume, http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/iran-sanctions-nuclear-talksdeal/2015/04/22/id/640014/ DOA: 4-24-15
The timing of sanctions relief is the sticking point in nuclear talks
between Iran and the six major world powers this week in Vienna,
where negotiations kicked of on Wednesday with a meeting between
delegates from Tehran and the European Union.
Iran and the six powers are trying to end more than 12 years of diplomatic
wrangling over the country's disputed nuclear program, which Tehran says is
peaceful but Western governments fear is aimed at developing an atomic
bomb.
After a tentative deal between Iran and the P5+1 China, France, Russia,
Britain and the United States, plus Germany was reached in Switzerland
on April 2, differences have emerged over what was agreed.
Arriving in Vienna, the deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi,
reiterated Iran's position: "All the economic sanctions should be
lifted on the day that the deal is implemented," according to a report
from Iranian news agency Tasnim.
But the United States has made it clear that sanctions on Iran would
have to be phased out gradually under the final pact.
A meeting between Araqchi and the EU political director, Helga Schmid,
began on Wednesday afternoon. Talks between Iran and delegates from the
six powers, including U.S. Under Secretary Wendy Sherman, will follow this
week, an EU statement said.
U.S. President Barack Obama was forced to give Congress a say in any
future accord including the right of lawmakers to veto the lifting
of sanctions imposed by the United States.
Araqchi said on state television before his arrival in Austria that the U.S.
administration was "responsible to ensure that its commitments, particularly
sanctions-related ones, are fulfilled."
Eforts have intensified to reach a final deal as a self-imposed deadline at the
end of June is looming large for Iran and the P5+1 group.

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Congressional Involvement Bill DA NU


Obama doesnt have enough support to override the
Congressional involvement bill now
Elise Labbott, 4-16-15, CNN, Is Congress Sabotaging a Nuclear Deal with
Iran? http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/16/politics/congress-iran-bill-nuclear-deal/
Washington (CNN)US lawmakers weren't sitting at the table with Iran during
the nuclear negotiations in Switzerland. But they were certainly the elephant
in the room.
Now, with a new bill poised to pass that would give Capitol Hill a say
on a future nuclear deal, the Republican-controlled Congress will have
even greater power to determine the fate of the accord.
U.S. and Western diplomats involved in the nuclear negotiations already
expected Iranian negotiators to drive a hard bargain, and they fear the new
legislation could undermine faith in Obama's ability to implement an
agreement. But while the diplomats aren't happy with the legislation, they
are relieved it isn't worse.
"It's not brilliant, but it does feel like it gives us the space we need" to
complete a final deal by the June 30 deadline, one Western diplomat said. "I
would say we are lukewarm to it."
The new version of bill was the product of last-minute concessions
by Senate Republicans that kept too many Democrats on board for
the White House to be confident it could sustain a veto.
It gives Congress at least 30 days to review the deal, during which
time President Barack Obama would be unable to waive any U.S. sanctions
previously imposed by Congress.
The original bill tied the White House's hands more tightly, giving Congress a
60-day review period and requiring Obama to certify that Iran was not
supporting terrorism against the United States.
The new measure requires the White House to submit a nuclear deal to
Congress by July 10, which another Western diplomat said gives negotiators
"the necessary time to finish the job."
"The good news is that nothing happens before July 10," the diplomat said.
"After this, nobody knows."

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Surveillance Reform Aff


GOP infighting kills surveillance reform
Alex Byers, 4-22-15, Politico, GOP Infighting Threatens NSA Bill,
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/gop-infighting-threatens-nsa-bill117221.html?hp=rc4_4 DOA: 4-22-15
Republicansareinastateofdisarrayonsurveillancereform,withCongressbarrelingtowardaMay31
deadlinetoextendorcurtailsomeoftheNSAskeypowers.SenateMajorityLeaderMitchMcConnell
andIntelligenceCommitteeChairmanRichardBurrwanttoreauthorizethebulkcollectionofphone
recordsthemostcontroversialprogramrevealedbyEdwardSnowdensleaks.Presidentialcandidates
TedCruzandRandPaulwanttoeffectivelyendit,asdomanyHouseRepublicans.SenateJudiciary
ChairmanChuckGrassley,whowillbeakeyplayerinanylegislation,hasntdecidedwhattodo.Thesplit
highlightsthepersistentdivisionsbetweenlibertarianleaningRepublicanswhoseeNSAspyingasa
threattoAmericansprivacyandGOPnationalsecurityhawkswhodontwanttotamperwiththeU.S.
intelligenceapparatus.Evenwiththetickingclockwhichmanylawmakershopedwouldforcea
decisionafterasimilareffortfailedlastyearGOPmembersarefarapartontheissue.DoIthink
theresapossibilityofcontinuingexistinglaw?No,Grassleysaid.Iminterestedintryingtofindout
whereindividualmembersarecomingfrom.Burrsretort:Youneverknowtillwetry.Itsthesecond
congressionalefforttoreformsurveillancepracticessinceSnowdensleaksrevealedthevastnatureofthe
NSAsoperations.Butiflawmakersdontdoanythingthistime,keypartsofthePATRIOTActwill
expire,includingakeyprovisionthatthegovernmenthasusedtojustifybulkdatacollection.Tech
companiesrattledbythedisclosuresaboutNSAsurveillanceviatheirInternetserviceshavebeenpushing
forchangesandwantmoreflexibilitytodisclosethegovernmentorderstheyreceive.IntheSenate,where
manyRepublicansfearchangesthatcouldweakenthenationsdefensesagainstterrorism,McConnelland
BurrintroducedabilllateTuesdaytoextendthelifeofthePATRIOTActprovisionswithoutreforming
surveillancepractices.McConnellstartedtheprocessofputtingthebilldirectlyontheSenatecalendar,but
aSenateleadershipaidesaidthebillwouldntbetakenupthisweek.OverintheHouse,abipartisan
groupoflawmakersthatincludesJudiciaryChairmanBobGoodlatte(RVa.)andJimSensenbrenner(R
Wis.)isexpectedtointroduceameasurebyWednesdaythatwouldblockmostbulkdatacollection
andincludetransparencyandotherreforms.GrassleyhasbeentrackingtheHouseandSenatenegotiations
butislukewarmtocurrentreformproposalsandisnotexpectedtointroduceaSenatecompaniontothe
Housebill.ButthefactthatheseesastraightupreauthorizationofthePATRIOTActprovisionsas
impossiblemayendupforcingSenateRepublicanstomakedifficultdecisionsonhowtobalanceprivacy
andsecurity.OneoptionforreformcouldcomefromSen.PatrickLeahy(DVt.).TheformerJudiciary
chairmanintroducedabilllastyearthatwonafewRepublicanvotesbutultimatelyfailedintheupper
chamber.Leahyislikelytoreintroduceasimilarmeasurethisyear,andreformadvocateshopeGOP
membersfacedwiththeprospectofsunsettingNSAauthoritieswillbeforcedtoacceptsome
changes.Buttheoptimismisntcontagious.Sen.MikeLee(RUtah),aleadingGOPsupporterofcurbing
surveillancepowerswhosbeenworkingwithLeahy,hadlittletosaywhenaskediftheeffortwouldhavea
bettershotthisyear.Idliketoseesomereforms,hesaid.Itstooearlytopredictwhatsgonnabethe
outcome.Thedebatecouldalsoreverberatethroughthe2016presidentialcampaign,particularlyamong
Republicancandidates.Paul(RKy.)andCruz(RTexas)aresurveillancereformadvocates,whileSen.
MarcoRubio(RFla.)isanationalsecurityhawk.WhileCruzwasacosponsorofLeahysUSAFreedom
Actlastyear,Paulvotedagainstbringingittothefloor,citinghisaversiontoreauthorizingthePATRIOT
Actangeringsomecivillibertarians.

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Stefan Bauschard
TPA Politics

Nuclear Deal Neg

55

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Possible DA
Congress could pass a bill to block an impending nuclear
deal, killing it
Yahoo News, 4-22-15, http://news.yahoo.com/iran-warns-sanctions-dominatefresh-nuclear-talks-144612021.html Iran warns sanctions to dominate fresh
nuclear talks
Fresh talks aimed at finalising a nuclear deal between Iran and world
powers will focus on the lifting of sanctions and possible
intervention by US Congress, a top Iranian negotiator said Wednesday. Iran

andtheP5+1groupofnationsagreedearlierthismonthtoaframeworkdealaimedatputtinganuclear
bomboutofTehran'sreachinreturnforaneasingofeconomicsanctions.
USPresidentBarackObamacalledtheinterimagreementa"historicunderstanding"butIranisconcerned
thatUSCongresscouldintroduceabilltoblockafinalaccord,whichmustbestruckbyJune30.
"WewillasktheAmericandelegationtoexplainthisissueandwillaskforclearandpreciseinformationon
thedetailsregardingtheremovalofsanctions,"deputyforeignministerAbbasAraghchitoldtheofficial
IRNAnewsagency.HewarnedthatinterventionbyCongresscouldhave"negativeconsequences"on
thenucleartalks,whichweresettoresumeinViennaonWednesday."TheUSispartofmultilateral
negotiationsanditistheresponsibilityofthisgovernmenttoensurethatitsobligations,inparticularthose
relatedtosanctions,willbeimplementedinfull,"Araghchisaid.Iffullyimplemented,adealwillseeIran
dramaticallyscalingbackitsnuclearactivitiesandsubmittingthosethatremaintowhatObamadescribed
the"mostrobustandintrusiveinspectionsandtransparencyregimeevernegotiated".
Inreturn,theUnitedStatesandfiveothermajorpowerscommittedtoliftcertainsanctionsthathavecaused
theIslamicrepublicof75millionpeoplemajoreconomicpainbystranglingitsoilexportsandfinancial
system.Theaccord,ifcompletedandimplemented,woulddrawtoacloseacrisisthathasbeensteadily
anddangerouslyescalatingsinceIran'snuclearprogrammewasfirstrevealedsome12yearsago.
Araghchi,whoisleadingtheIraniandelegation,saidthat"theliftingofsanctionsshouldnotbelinkedto
conditionsunrelated"toTehran'snuclearactivities,suchasitsballisticmissileprogramme.
Iran,subjecttointernationaleconomicpenaltiessince2006,wantscompletesanctionsreliefonceadealis
struck.ButworldpowersinsistthisshallonlyoccuroncethenuclearinspectorsconfirmthatIranis
keepingitssideofthebargain.IranianforeignministryspokeswomanMarziehAfkhamsaidonWednesday
thattherewasa"possibilityofchangesintheterms"oftheframeworkagreementthrashedoutinLausanne.
"Iftherewerenotgoingtobechanges,itwouldbepointlesstocontinuethenegotiations,"shetold
reportersinTehran.

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A2: No Deal
Deal likely to be reached
Ian Bremmer, 4-22-15, Time, Ignore the Noise in Washington and Tehran, An
Iran Nuclear Deal is still likely, http://time.com/3830214/ian-bremmer-irannuclear-deal/
In his first public comments after the U.S. and Iran settled on a nuclear
framework agreement, Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei pulled no
punches: The whole problem comes now that the details should be
discussed, because the other side is stubborn, difficult to deal with, breaks
promises and is a backstabber.
Critics quickly pointed to the statement as proof that hopes for a final deal
are evaporating. But the Ayatollahs combative words dont move the needle
on whether well get a final deal by the June 30 deadline.
Khamenei is posturing for two separate audiences. His hardline supporters in
Iran could undermine his political authority if they believe he is capitulating
to the West. The Ayatollah needs to placate this group while his negotiators,
led by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, hammer out a deal
behind closed doors. His second audience is the Western negotiators with
whom he is trying to drive a hard bargain. Khameneis comments put more
pressure on them, and sends a signal to his own negotiators not to cede
ground.
But Khamenei authorized Irans president to appoint negotiators to work out
a deal. The Supreme Leader has praised those negotiators via Twitter. The
talks couldnt have progressed this far if Khamenei wasnt serious about
getting a deal done to escape Western sanctions.
In fact, American detractors of the potential deal are engaging in a very
similar form of theater. U.S. politicians want to score political points as much
as their Iranian counterparts do: congressional Republicans and GOP
presidential hopefuls are badmouthing the deal to ding President Obama and
gain traction on the biggest global issue of the day. But the reality is that it
will be impossible for Republicans to peel of enough Democrats to reach a
veto-proof majority and overturn a final deal. The international community
favors an Iran deal, and the American public is wary of undertaking military
actions that could lead to another Middle East war.
A final deal between the U.S. and Iran remains more likely than not, but its
not vitriolic tweets that threaten it mostits the remaining sticking points
between the two sides. How much enriched uranium would Iran be allowed to
stockpile? How much will a deal limit nuclear research using advanced
machines? At what pace and in what sequence will the West lift sanctions
while Iran carries out its end of the bargain?
These are critical and complex questions, but both sides know that tanhey
exist, and nothing that has been said from the sidelines in Tehran or
Washington has changed that.

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58

Yet even if the U.S. and Iran manage to agree on a final deal, the negotiations
wont end. The devil lies in the details of implementation. What happens if
the U.S. discovers in four or five years that Iran is cheating, hiding nuclear
weapons work from inspectors? How feasible will it be to punish Iran for
undermining a deal, especially once sanctions are peeled back and Iran
emerges from international isolation?
Reaching a deal is one thing. Making sure it doesnt unravel is something else
and something that may be even tougher.

Deal will happen


George Jahn, 4-22-15, Times of Israel, Tough Iran Talk, But Chances for nuke
deal
http://www.timesofisrael.com/tough-iran-talk-but-chances-for-nuke-deal/
DOA: 4-22-15
As Iran nuclear talks go into the home stretch, top officials in Tehran are
digging in on positions that appear set to doom the negotiations to failure.
But Iran seems ready to blink when it serves its negotiating strategy, which
may bode well for a deal. The sides on Wednesday began negotiating the last
phases of a deal that would lift sanctions on Iran if it agrees to long-term
curbs on its nuclear program. They wouldnt have gotten there without
compromises by both Washington and Tehran.

ForIran,thathasmeantclimbingdownfrompositionsitinitiallydescribedasnotnegotiable.Thatstrategy
oftoughtalkfirstandconcessionslatercouldberevivedasnegotiatorsworktowardaJunedeadline.
Fornow,theIraniansareinsistingonimmediatesanctionsreliefwhilerejectingUSdemandsfordeeply
intrusivemonitoringtomakesureTehranhewstoitsobligations.
BothdemandsgoagainstcommitmentsWashingtonsaysTehranhasalreadymadeintheframeworkdeal
agreedtoearlierthismonthandbotharepotentialdealbreakersforacomprehensiveaccord.Butthat
doesntseemtoimpresstheIranians.
Iranssupremeleader,AyatollahAliKhamenei,saysallsanctionsmustbeliftedcompletely,onthevery
firstdayofthedealandhasdeclaredthatmilitarysitesareofflimitstoforeignersunderthepretextof
inspections.Brig.Gen.HosseinSalamioftheRevolutionaryGuardswarnsthatanyonesettingfootintoan
Iranianmilitaryfacilitywillbemetwithhotleadahailofbullets.
Infact,Iranmustknowthatbothpositionsareuntenable,suggestingitisagainpushingtheenvelopeasa
negotiatingtactic.USPresidentBarackObamacanliftsanctionsimposedthroughexecutiveordersbut
cannotinstantlyendotherspassedbyCongress,letaloneforeigncountries.
TheresalsoanapparentdisconnectbetweenthelimitslaiddownbyKhameneiandSalamionverification
ofIranscommitmentsandwhattheIranianshavepreviouslysaidtheywouldallow.
AfactsheetpublishedbyTehranearlierthismonthhasitagreeingtoimplementtheAdditionalProtocol,
theInternationalAtomicEnergyAgencysmostpotentmonitoringinstrument.Suchanagreementwould
givethatUNagencytherighttopushhardtoprobeanysitesitsuspectsmaybehidingnuclearactivity
militaryinstallationsincluded.
AllofwhichleavesTehranwithtwooptionstonedownexpectationsorwalkawayfromthetable.But
abandoningthetalksisunlikely,evenifIrandismissesasabluffthelatentthreatofUSorIsraelimilitary
strikesshouldnegotiationsfail.
Thecurrentleadershipneedsanendtosanctions.Massoutbreaksofpublicjoygreetednegotiatorsasthey
returnedhomewiththeframeworkagreementintheirpocketsearlierthismonth.Failurenowwouldleadto
economicgloomandthepossiblethreatofsocialinstability.
Iraninsteadislikelytoreturntothescriptitusedtoreachtheframeworkagreementthatopenedthewayto
thepresenttalks.

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59

IranianofficialsinitiallypledgedthatnotasinglepieceofIransnuclearinfrastructurewouldbe
dismantledbutthenagreedtohalvethenumberofmachinesthatcouldbeturnedtomakingnuclear
arms.Theyalsocommittedtorestrictionsnotforthefewyearstheyoriginallydemandedbutforovera
decade.
Intheend,IranmettheAmericansinthemiddle,andthatisincreasinghopesevenamongskepticsthatit
willdosoagainnow.
FormerUSnegotiatorGarySamoresayshethoughtKhameneiwasseriousabouthisredlines.Now,he
says,Iseehesnot.
TheIranianincentivetogetsanctionsreliefissostrongthatheispreparedtosacrificeoracceptlimitson
hisnuclearprogram.

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60

A2: New Sanctions Mean We Get a Better Deal


New sanctions alienate negotiating partners, dont lead to a better deal
Aaron Arnold, 4-22-15, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Three Myths About
the Iran Sanctions, http://thebulletin.org/three-myths-about-iransanctions8235 DOA: 4-22-15
InternationalpartnerswillcontinuetosupportUSledsanctions.SanctionsonIransenergy,shipping,
andinsurancesectors,alongwithalmostcompletefinancialisolation,havetakenatoll.Itiseasyto
imaginethatthesetoughsanctionsbroughtIrantothenegotiatingtableand,therefore,thattheUnited
Statesshouldcontinuetoapplysanctionsinhopesofgainingamorecomprehensiveagreement.Butonlya
smallpercentageofleadingscholarsbelieveastrategyinvolvingthethreatofincreasedsanctionswould
produceabetterdealfortheUnitedStates.OnereasonisthatitisunclearwhetherornottheUnitedStates
canmaintainaninternationalcoalitionthatsupportssanctionsagainstIran.
Infact,doublingdownonsanctionstogetabetterdealislikelytoweakenalreadywaninginternational
supportforUSimposedsanctions.PresidentObamahasevenexpresseddoubtsthatthesanctionsregime
wouldremainintactshouldnegotiationsfail.
Oilplaysabigrolehere.ToughersanctionswouldrequiredeepercutsinoilimportsfromIran,which
wouldlikelybeadifficultsellfortheUnitedStatestomake.IranstopoilconsumershaveviewedUS
sanctionsasameanstoasolution,insteadofthesolutionitself.Fromtheperspectiveofinternational
partners,faileddiplomacy,then,isnocausetoacceptfurtherreductionsinoilimports.
Iranianoilexportscurrentlyhoveratalmost1.1millionbarrelsaday,downfrom2.5millionin2011
costingIranmorethan$40billioninlostrevenueinthelastyearalone.Butwithoutsupportfrom
internationalpartners,thisrevenuelosswouldbemuchlower.Accordingtoa2015Congressional
ResearchServicereport,China,India,SouthKorea,Japan,andTurkeyIranstopoilconsumers
reducedtheircumulativeIranianoilimportsbymorethanhalfamillionbarrelsperdayfrom2011tothe
startoftheJointPlanofActionin2013.(Furtherreductionsoccurredinothercountriesbutweredeemed
negligible.)Sincethestartoftheaction,somecountrieshavemadefurtherreductions.India,forexample,
isimportingonly50,000barrelsadaydownfrom348,000barrelsin2014.
WouldinternationalpartnerscontinuetosupportUSledsanctions,ifCongressionalleadersdecidetoramp
themup?Theanswerisnotentirelyclear.China,forexample,hassoughttodiversifyitssourcesofoilto
avoiddisruption,pivotinginparttoRussiatosatisfyitsgrowingenergyneeds.India,ontheotherhand,is
expectedtoincreaseitsimportsofIranianoil.
Butitmaynotmatter.Globally,lowoilpricesandoversupplyalsomeanthatIranwillfacestiffmarket
competition.Ifsanctionswerelifted,itisuncertainwhetherIranianoilexportswouldreturntopre2011
levels.

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61

A2: Snap Back Sanctions Fail


Threat of snap-back sanctions will work
Aaron Arnold, 4-22-15, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Three Myths About
the Iran Sanctions, http://thebulletin.org/three-myths-about-iransanctions8235 DOA: 4-22-15
MythNo.2:SnapbacksanctionswillbeineffectiveagainsteconomicmomentuminIran.Therehas
beenmuchdebateaboutthefeasibilityofsnapbacksanctions.Whilethecurrentframeworkcallsfor
sanctionstospringbackintoplaceifIrandoesnotupholditsendofthebargain,opponentsclaimthat
liftingsanctionswillprovideIranwithenougheconomicmomentumtoneutralizetheeffectofanysuch
sanctions.Inarecentstatement,TreasurySecretaryJacobLewcharacterizedsanctionsreliefas
reversible.
SomeeconomistsbelievethatIrancouldseeupwardsof7to8percentgrowthinitsgrossdomestic
product,orGDP,intheyearsafteranagreementasaresultofrejoiningtheglobaleconomy.Butsince
2010,Iranhasconsistentlyunderperformedcomparedtoitseconomicpeers,primarilyduetosignificant
declinesinoilproduction,oilexportrevenues,andGDP.Despitemeasuredeconomicgrowthoverthelast
year,however,withoutsometypeofsanctionsreliefIranwillnotbeabletofullyrecoveritseconomyat
leastintheshortrun.
CriticsofthefeasibilityofsnapbacksanctionsfailtorecognizeanumberofchallengesthatIranwillhave
toovercomeoncetheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnion,andtheUnitedNationsbegintoliftnuclear
relatedsanctions.
Forone,PresidentHassanRouhanisausteritybudgetdoesnottakeintoaccountadealwiththeP5+1,and
instead,focusesoncontinuingtobuildastrongdomesticeconomyincludingaburgeoningmanufacturing
base,whichIranwillwanttoprotectoncesanctionsarelifted.
Tehranssecondchallengewouldberejoiningtheinternationalbankingsystem,whichithasbeen
increasinglyfrozenoutofsince2011whentheUnitedStatesdesignatedIranasajurisdictionofprimary
moneylaunderingconcernunderSection311oftheUSAPATRIOTAct.ThisdesignationrequiresUS
banksandotherfinancialinstitutionstoundertakeenhancedmeasurestoguardagainstterroristfinancing.
SincetheonlysanctionsaffectedbytheframeworkagreementwouldbethoserelatedtoIransnuclear
program,manyofthesePATRIOTActdesignationswouldstayinplace.TheUSdesignationofIrans
financialsectorexplicitlynotestheIranianbanksroleinsupportingterrorismanditspursuitofnuclear
andballisticmissilecapabilities.Fromariskandcomplianceperspective,bankswouldbehesitanttore
engageIranseconomy.Notwantingtoincurstiffpenalties,USbanksandfinancialinstitutions,aswellas
thosesubjectedtoextraterritorialprovisionsofUSsanctions,wouldbehesitantifnotoverlycautiousin
reengagingwithIran.Thelikelyscenarioisthatsomelargefinancialinstitutionswouldavoidbusiness
withIranaltogether.
Intestimony

beforetheHouseForeignAffairsCommittee,TreasuryundersecretaryAdamSzubinsaidthat,
Oursanctionsarenotjustwordsonthebookswevigorouslyenforcethem.Andduringnegotiations,
theTreasuryimposedmorethan$450millioninfines.Thiscomesontheheelsofrecordsettingfines
againstlargebanks,suchasthealmost$9billionfineagainstFrancesBNPParibasforsanctions
violations.Givensuchariskyregulatoryenvironment,manybanksareoptingtoshutdownbanking
relationshipsincountriesofconcernaprocessdubbedderiskingratherthantakingamoretailored
approach.ThiswillundoubtedlycreatestumblingblocksforanyofIransbanksthatwanttorejointhe
globalbankingsystem.

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IranwillalsohavetocontendwithitscontinueddesignationbytheFinancialActionTaskForce(FATF)
theglobalstandardsettingbodyformoneylaunderingandterroristfinancingasahighriskjurisdiction.
FATFcontinuestocalluponitsmemberstatestotakeconcertedcountermeasuresagainstIrantoprotect
theinternationalfinancialsystemfromsubstantialmoneylaunderingandterroristfinancingrisks.
FATFsrecommendationsfocusexclusivelyonterroristrelatedfinancingconcern,andnotissuesrelatedto
Iransnuclearambitions.

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A2: US Controls the Global Financial System


US doesnt control the world financial system
Aaron Arnold, 4-22-15, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Three Myths About
the Iran Sanctions, http://thebulletin.org/three-myths-about-iransanctions8235 DOA: 4-22-15
MythNo.3:TheUnitedStatescancontinuetocontroltheworldfinancialsystem.Althoughnot
withoutcontroversy,theextraterritorialprovisionsofUSledsanctionsprovidethebackbonetofreezing
Iranoutoftheglobaleconomy.(Thatis,theabilitytoimposeharshpenaltiesonnonUSfirmsfor
conductingsignificantbusinessortransactionswithIraniancompanies.)ChinasBankofKunlun,for
example,wassanctionedbytheUnitedStatesin2012forfacilitatingsignificanttransactionsand
financialservicestodesignatedIranianbanks.
Theeffectivenessoftheseprovisions,however,reliesinpartonthestructureoftheinternationalfinancial
system;imposingtoughersanctionsforabetterbargainrestsonthepremisethatthisstructurewillremain
intact.Thetruth,however,isthatmajorshiftsininternationalbankingseverelyunderminetheprospectof
maintainingarobustsanctionsregime.Forexample,someofthehardesthittingroundsofsanctionscame
in2012,whentheBelgiumbasedcompanyofSWIFTtheworldslargestfinancialmessagingsystem
cutoffIranaspartofEUsanctions.ThismovefrozeIraniansaccesstointernationalmarkets,devastating
itstradeandcommerce.
Thissuddenmoveunderscoredtoothercountriestheinherentrisksinrelyingonasingleaccesspointto
internationalbanking,andencouragedthemtotakeanumberofmovestomitigatethoserisks.China,for
example,isonscheduletolaunchanalternativetoSWIFT,possiblybytheendof2015.Knownasthe
ChinaInternationalPaymentSystem,itisdesignedtoprocesscrossborderrenminbitransactions,ina
welcomealternativetothepatchworksystemofprocessingChinesecurrencypaymentsmakingthe
renminbiamoreglobalcurrency.ThesystemwillprovidealegitimatealternativetoSWIFT.
RussiarecentlylauncheditsownalternativetoSWIFTfordomesticpayments,aspartofalargermoveto
getawayfromWesterndominanceoftheinternationalfinancialsystemspecificallycitingfearsof
exclusionfromSWIFTstemmingfromWesternsanctionsovertheescalatingcrisisinUkraine.
Realityversusmyth.Callsforabetterdealrelyinginpartonstrengtheningsanctionsdonottakea
realisticviewofthecurrentstateoftheglobalsanctionsregimeagainstIran.Thesystemischanging,and
domesticpoliticshasyettocatchup.
Decadesofsanctionshavehaddiffuseglobalconsequences,andemergingtrendsshowthatUSled
sanctionswillnotenjoythesameleveloflegitimacyithasinthepast.GivenUSeconomicdominanceand
theappearanceofeffectiveness,itisunderstandablehowsanctionshavebecomesomewhatofapanacea
forinternationaldiplomacy.Thereality,however,isthatwithoutbetterevidencebasedpolicymaking,the
UnitedStateswillfinditselfunpreparedtodealwiththebroaderspectrumofsanctionsconsequences.