Project Planning

Identifying the Work to Be Done

Given:
Statement of work

Activity Sequencing
Network Diagrams

written description of goals

work & time frame of project

Work Breakdown Structure

Be able to: develop precedence relationship

diagram which shows sequential
relationship of project activities

Project Managment

Project Managment

Gantt Chart

A Gantt Chart
0

Month

Activity

Popular tool for project scheduling

Graph with bar representing time for each
task
Provides visual display of project schedule
Also shows slack for activities
(amount of time activity can be delayed without
delaying project)

Design house and

obtain financing
Lay foundation
Order and receive
materials
Build house
Select paint
Select carpet
Finish work

Project Managment

Project Managment

10

CPM/PERT

Simplified Project Network

Critical Path Method (CPM)

- DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956)
- deterministic task times
- activity-on-node network construction (AON)

Construct forms

Pour concrete

Project Evaluation & Review Technique

(PERT)
- U.S. Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton
- multiple task time estimates
- activity-on-arrow network construction (AOA)
Project Managment

Project Managment

The Project Network

Network consists of branches & nodes
Node
1

2
Branch

Project Managment

Network Construction
In AON, nodes represent activities & arrows
show precedence relationships
In AOA, arrows represent activities & nodes are
events for points in time
An event is the completion or beginning of an
activity
A dummy shows precedence for two activities
with same start & end nodes
Project Managment

Project Network For A House

Critical Path
A path is a sequence of connected activities
running from the start to the end node in a network

3
Dummy

Lay foundation

Design house
and obtain
financing

Build
house

Order and
receive
materials

Select
paint

Finish
work
1

1 Select
carpet

The critical path is the path with the longest

duration in the network
A project cannot be completed in less than the
time of the critical path

Project Managment

Project Managment

All Possible Paths

A: 1-2-3-4-6-7

Concurrent Activities
Lay foundation

3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months; the critical path

B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7

Lay
foundation

3
2

3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months

C: 1-2-4-6-7
3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months
D: 1-2-4-5-6-7
3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months
Project Managment

Dummy
4

Order material

Order material
Incorrect
precedence
relationship

Correct
precedence
relationship

Project Managment

Early Times

Computing Early Times

(Housebuilding example)

ES - earliest time activity can start

Forward pass starts at beginning of network to
determine ES times
EF = ES + activity time

ESij = maximum (EFi)

EFij = ESij + tij
ES12 = 0
EF12 = ES12 + t12 = 0 + 3 = 3 months

ES23 = max (EF2) = 3 months

ES46 = max (EF4) = max (5,4) = 5 months
EF46 = ES46 + t46 = 5 + 3 = 8 months
EF67 =9 months, the project duration

Project Managment

Project Managment

Late Times
LS - latest time activity can start & not delay
project
Backward pass starts at end of network to
determine LS times
LF - latest time activity can be completed & not
delay project
LSij = LFij - tij
LFij = minimum (LSj)
Project Managment

Computing Late Times

LF67 = 9 months
LS67 = LF67 - t67 = 9 - 1 = 8 months
LF56 = minimum (LS6) = 8 months
LS56 = LF56 - t56 = 8 - 1 = 7 months
LF24 = minimum (LS4) = min(5, 6) = 5 months
LS24 = LF24 - t24 = 5 - 1 = 4 months

Project Managment

Early And Late Times

Activity Slack

ES=5, EF=5
ES=3, EF=5

ES=0, EF=3

ES=3, EF=4

LS=0, LF=3

LS=4, LF=5

ES=8, EF=9

ES=5, EF=8

Activities on critical path have ES = LS &

EF = LF

LS=5, LF=5

LS=3, LF=5

LS=5, LF=8
3
1

ES=5, EF=6

LS=8, LF=9

ES=6, EF=7
LS=7, LF=8

LS=6, LF=7

Activities not on critical path have slack

Sij = LSij - ESij

Sij = LFij - EFij

S24 = LS24 - ES24 = 4 - 3 = 1 month

Project Managment

Project Managment

Activity Slack Data

Activity
1-2*
2-3
2-4
3-4*
4-5
4-6*
5-6
6-7*

LS
0
3
4
5
6
5
7
8

ES
0
3
3
5
5
5
6
8

LF
3
5
5
5
7
8
8
9

EF
3
5
4
5
6
8
7
9

Slack (S)
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0

Reflect uncertainty of activity times

Beta distribution is used in PERT
a + 4m + b
Mean (expected time): t =
6
2
b
a
2
Variance: = (
)
6
where,

* Critical path
Project Managment

Probabilistic Time Estimates

a = optimistic estimate
m = most likely time estimate
b = pessimistic time estimate
Project Managment

PERT Example

Example Beta Distributions

Equipment testing
and modification

P (time)

P (time)

Equipment
installation

6
Final
debugging

Dummy

System
development

Manual
Testing

System
Training

System
changeover

P (time)

System
Testing
Job
training

Position
recruiting

Orientation

m=t
Project Managment

Time estimates (wks)

a
b
c
6
8 10
3
6
9
1
3
5
0
0
0
2
4 12
2
3
4
3
4
5
2
2
2
3
7 11
2
4
6
0
0
0
1
4
7
1
10 13

Mean Time
t
8
6
3
0
5
3
4
2
7
4
0
4
9

Project Managment

Project Managment

Activity Information
Activity
1-2
1-3
1-4
2-5
2-6
3-5
4-5
4-8
5-7
5-8
7-8
6-9
7-9

Dummy

Variance
2
.44
1.00
.44
.00
2.78
.11
.11
.00
1.78
.44
.00
1.00
4.00

Early And Late Times

Activity
1-2
1-3
1-4
2-5
2-6
3-5
4-5
4-8
5-7
5-8
7-8
6-9
7-9

t
8
6
3
0
5
3
4
2
7
4
0
4
9

2
0.44
1.00
0.44
0.00
2.78
0.11
0.11
0.00
1.78
0.44
0.00
1.00
4.00

ES
0
0
0
8
8
6
3
3
9
9
13
13
16

EF
8
6
3
8
13
9
7
5
16
13
13
17
25

LS
1
0
2
9
16
6
5
14
9
12
16
21
16

Project Managment

LF
9
6
5
9
21
9
9
16
16
16
16
25
25

S
1
0
2
1
8
0
2
11
0
3
3
8
0

Network With Times

Project Variance

ES=8, EF=13

( LS=16 LF=21 )

ES=0, EF=8

(LS=1, LF=9 )

(LS=9, LF=9 )

(LS=0, LF=6 )
6

ES=9, EF=13

(LS=2, LF=5 )
4

( LS=9, LF=16 )

ES=6, EF=9

(LS=6, LF=9 )

ES=0, EF=3

Project variance is the sum of the variances

along the critical path

ES=0, EF=6

ES=13, EF=25

( LS=16 LF=25 )

ES=8, EF=8

( LS=12, LF=16)

(LS=5, LF=9 )

0
ES=13, EF=13

( LS=16 LF=16 )

2
ES=3, EF=5

( LS=14, LF=16)

( LS=16 LF=25 )

ES=9, EF=13

4
ES=3, EF=7

9
ES=13, EF=25

Project Managment

Probabilistic Network Analysis

2 = 2 13 + 2 35 + 2 57 + 2 79
= 1.00 +0.11 + 1.78 + 4.00
= 6.89 weeks
Project Managment

Normal Distribution Of Project Time

Determine the probability that a project is completed

within a specified period of time
Z =

Probability

x-

where
= tp = project mean time
= project standard deviation
x = proposed project time
Z = number of standard deviations x is from mean
Project Managment

= tp
Project Managment

Time

Determining Probability
From Z Value

Probabilistic Analysis Example

What is the probability that the project is
completed within 30 weeks?
2 = 6.89 weeks
=

Z = x - = 30 - 25 = 1.91
2.62

P(Z < 1.91) = 0.9719

0.01

0.09

0.4719

0.4767

..
.

0.4713

P( x < 30 weeks) = 0.50+ 0.4767

= 0.9767
x = 30

Time (weeks)

Project Managment

What is the probability that the project

will be completed within 22 weeks?
22 - 25 = -3
= -1.14
Z=
2.62
2.62
P(Z< -1.14) = 0.1271

Project Managment

..
.

= 25

Project Managment

P( x< 22 weeks) = 0.1271

0.00

..
.

1.9

6.89 = 2.62 weeks

x = 22

= 25

Time (weeks)

Benefits of PERT/CPM
Useful at many stages of project
management
Mathematically simple
Uses graphical displays
Gives critical path & slack time
Provides project documentation
Useful in monitoring costs
Project Managment

Advantages of PERT/CPM
Networks generated provide valuable project
documentation and graphically point out
who is responsible for various project
activities
Applicable to a wide variety of projects
and industries
Useful in monitoring not only schedules, but
costs as well
Project Managment

PERT and GERT: A Comparison

GERT

PERT

each activity has a

probability of occurrence
the nodes indicate the
nature of the branch
probabilistic
deterministic

all activities must take

place
the nodes (events) are
circles and the activities
are arrows

Project Managment

Limitations of PERT/CPM
Assumes clearly defined, independent, &
stable activities
Specified precedence relationships
Activity times (PERT) follow
beta distribution
Subjective time estimates
Over-emphasis on critical path
Project Managment

Project Crashing
Crashing reduces project time by expending
additional resources
Crash time is the amount of time an activity is
reduced
Crash cost is the cost of reducing an activitys
time
The goal of crashing is to reduce a projects
duration at minimum cost
Project Managment

Housebuilding Network

Normal Activity And Crash Data

Activity times in weeks

Activity

3
0

8
1

12

12
4

1-2
2-3
2-4
3-4
4-5
4-6
5-6
6-7

Normal
Time
(wks)

Crash
Time Normal
(wks)
Cost

12 7
8
4
0
4
12 9
4
4

$3,000
$5,000
5
2,000
3,500
3
4,000
7,000
0
0
0
1
500
1,100
50,000
71,000
1
500
1,100
3
15,000
22,000
$75,000
$110,700

Project Managment

6,000

Crash cost

4,000

12

Normal cost

Crashed activity
Slope = crash cost per week
Normal activity

3,000

$3,000

4
$200

$7,000
12
4
4

6
$200

$7,000
4

2,000

Crash time

1,000
0

Normal time
8

10 12 14

5
Project Managment

200
7,000

5,000

$400

500
3,000
0
200

7,000

Crash cost per week = Total crash cost / Total crash time
= $2,000 / 5 = $400 per week

$ 400
3
1
0
3
7,000
3
1

Normal And Crash Relationships

Activity 1-2 can be crashed a total of 5 weeks for $2000

Project Managment

Network With Crashing Costs

$500

Crash
Cost

Total
Allowable
Crash
Crash Time Cost per
(wks)
Week

Project Managment

Weeks

Crashing Solution

Crashed Project

Normal Crash Total Crash

Total
Activity Time
Time Time
cost per Crashing
Crashed week
Cost
1-212
2-38
2-44
3-40
4-54
4-612
5-64
6-74

7
5
3
0
1
9
1
3

5
3
0
0
0
3
0
1

$ 400
500
3,000
0
200
7,000
200
7,000
12

0
12

$ 2,000
1,500
0
0
0
21,000
0
7,000

12

4
4

5
Original time

Crashed time

$31,500

Project Managment

Project Managment

Time-Cost Relationship

Indirect costs increase as project

duration increases
Project length should be reduced as
long as crashing costs are less than
indirect costs

Time-Cost Tradeoff
Minimum cost = optimal project time

Cost ($)

Crashing costs increase as project

duration decreases

Total cost
Indirect cost

Direct cost
Crashing

Project Duration
Project Managment

Project Managment

Time

Engineering Management 1

Precedence
Diagramming
Method

Project
Resources:
Loading

Project
Resources
Leveling

Project
Schedule
Compression

Class 3: Project
Scheduling II
Ruel Ellis
Department of Mechanical and
Manufacturing Engineering

Precedence
Diagramming
Method (PDM)

Precedence
Diagramming Method
Extension of basic PERT/CPM
Permits partial parallel
performance of mutually
dependent activities
Allowance of overlap of
activities - not just serial
Better recognition of real world
relationships between activities

Precedence
Diagramming Method
Used by virtually all project
management software
More popular than CPM/PERT
method
Allows more flexibility than
CPM/PERT in lead/lag relationships
different types of dependencies

PDM Lead-Lag
Relationships

PDM Activity
Relationships

PDM Start to Start

Complements traditional PERT

(Start-Finish) relationship
between activities
Four additional lead-lag
relationships besides simple
Start -to- Start lead SSAB
Finish -to- Finish lead FFAB
Finish -to- Start lead FSAB
Start -to- Finish lead SFAB

Start -to- Start lead SSAB

Activity B cannot start until
activity A has been in
progress for at least SS
time units

SSAB = 2
A

PDM Finish to Finish

Finish -to- Finish lead FFAB
Activity B cannot finish until
at least FF time units after
completion of activity A

PDM Finish to Start

Finish -to- Start lead FSAB
Activity B cannot start until
at least FS time units after
the completion of activity A

FSAB = 3

FFAB = 4

PDM Start to Finish

Start -to- Finish lead SFAB
there must be at least SF
time units between the
start of activity A and the
completion of activity B

SFAB = 6
A

Problem Exercise:PERT
Network Analysis
Complete the PERT
network AON diagram
for the project.
You want to determine
Critical Path
Duration of the Critical
Path

Example Project

Example Project
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H

Description
Test Plan Design
Prototype Sample Const
Shock Testing
Environmental Testing
Shock Test Analysis
Shock Test Report
Final Testing Draft Report
Final Test Report Delivery

(b-a)/6
(a + 4m + b)/6

Pred Dur "a" Dur "m" Dur "b"

(days)
(days)
(days)
None
A
B
B
B,C
E
D,F
F,G

3
5
3
8
10
6
2
2

5
9
4
16
12
11
4
3

7
19
11
18
32
10
6
16

Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H

Description
Test Plan Design
Prototype Sample Const
Shock Testing
Environmental Testing
Shock Test Analysis
Shock Test Report
Final Testing Draft Report
Final Test Report Delivery

Pred Dur "a" Dur "m" Dur "b" Te Std

(days) (days)
(days) (days) Dev
None
A
B
B
B,C
E
D,F
F,G

3
5
3
8
10
6
2
2

5
9
4
16
12
11
4
3

7
19
11
18
32
10
6
16

PERT Network Analysis

What is the probability that
the project will complete in
Less than 54 days?
Greater than 54 days?
Greater than 57 days?
Less than 48 days?
95% confidence range for
duration?

Constrained
Resources

5
10
5
15
15
10
4
5

0.67
2.33
1.33
1.67
3.67
0.67
0.67
2.33

Resource Allocation - the

Issue
Issues of resource utilization and
availability fact of life
Scheduling is focused on time
physical resources are also
important
Resources (including time) must
be considered example, the
students workload

Resource Constraining
CPM & PERT both assume
unlimited resources
NOT TRUE
may have only a finite number of skilled
assets (example - systems analysts,
programmers)

RESOURCE LEVELING - balance

the resource load
RESOURCE CONSTRAINING dont exceed available resources

Project Constraints:
Principal Types
Technical constraints
Task inter-relationships

Resource Constraints
People
Materials
Equipment
Capital

Physical constraints

Constrained Resources
Constrained resource problem
activity, duration, and resources
SUBJECT TO ________ (fill in the blank)
Generally accepted approaches:
Heuristic Methods (rules of thumb)
used by software for leveling
resources
Optimization Models (mathematical)
not good for large complex
situations

Resource Loading

Resource
Loading

Project Manager is responsible for

the design which will:
Provide required resources,
in the required amounts, to
where they are needed,
when they are needed

Loading provides a picture of the

work flow requirements in a
project throughout the project
life cycle

Resource Loading
Time-phased resources - describes
amount of individual resources an
existing schedule requires during
specific time periods
Resource loads (requirements) of
each resource type are listed as a
function of time period
The schedule becomes directly
linked to requirements for
supporting resources

Resource Loading
Resource loading is the time
individual resources (people,
subcontractors, groups) have
committed to a project
Introduction of constraints to the
schedule

Resource Loading
Constraints to the schedule
Can be given as a percentage
Can provide dates of availability
Work contour loading

A couple of issues:
Overloading Pay overtime, Work
over
Underloading 100% committed
(wasted resource)

Resource Leveling
Based on the results from the
resource loading identification of
peaks and valleys in resources
assigned to the project
Leveling is designed to create a
smoother distribution of resource
usage reduce variability of
resource commitment
Leveling also changes cost (cash
flow) distribution

Resource
Leveling

Resource Leveling
Resource leveling is the process of
shifting resource usage to distribute
workload of team members and
availability of equipment/critical
resources
This is where the project managers
earn their money making schedulecosts tradeoffs

Resource Leveling
Example: Unleveled

Resource Leveling
Approaches to resource leveling
Redistribution of work split/stagger
activities
Task shifting using slack as shifting
leverage
Add additional resources
Substitute resources (temporary)
Change scope Eliminate activities
Change schedule

40
35
30
25
analysts
programmers
trainers

20
15
10
5
0
1st Qtr 2nd
Qtr

Resource Leveling
Example: Leveled
25
20
15
analysts
programmers
trainers

10
5
0
1st Qtr 2nd
Qtr

3rd
Qtr

4th
Qtr

3rd
Qtr

4th
Qtr

Resources and Scheduling

Resource leveling
Assumes sufficient resources to meet
peak project demands
Schedule tasks to smooth or balance
use of resources

Resource constrained scheduling

Assumes insufficient resources to
meet peak project demands
Schedule tasks to minimize project
duration while adhering to limited
resources

Resources and
Scheduling

Resource Leveling:
An Illustrative Example

Assumptions (for convenience

not in practice)

Tasks cannot be pre-empted

Constant resource level
requirement for each task

C
F
D

Leveling

Task Schedule Details:

CPM at Work
Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G

Resources
2
2
2
1
1
1
1

DUR
2
6
4
2
2
4
2

ES
0
2
2
2
6
6
10

EF
2
8
6
4
8
10
12

LS
0
4
2
8
8
6
10

LF
2
10
6
10
10
10
12

SL
0
2
0
6
2
0
0

Which are the critical tasks?

Will now level use of resources:

assume only 1 type of resource used.

Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G

Res DUR ES
2
2
0
2
6
2
2
4
2
1
2
2
1
2
6
1
4
6
1
2
10

LF
2
10
6
10
10
10
12

SL
0
2
0
6
2
0
0
Total

1
2

9 10 11 12

2
2
2
1

2
2
1

2
2

2
2

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

Leveling
Task Res DUR
A
2
2
B
2
6
C
2
4
D
1
2
E
1
2
F
1
4
G 1
2

SL
0
2
0
6
2
0
0

1
2

Leveling
6

9 10 11 12

Resources

2
2
2
1

2
2
1

2
2

2
2

6
5

1
1

1
1

1
1

Series1

Total

1
0
1

Leveling
Task Res DUR
A
2
2
B
2
6
C
2
4
D
1
2
E
1
2
F
1
4
G
1
2

SL
0
2
0
6
2
0
0
total

1
2

10

11

12

Leveling

Resources

9 10 11 12

2
X X
2 2
1 1

2
2

2
2

1
1

1
1

1
1

1
1

4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

Series1

10

11

12

MS Project (automatic
leveling factors)
1. Predecessor delay tasks without
dependencies first
2. Total slack delay tasks with more
slack
3. Start Date delay tasks that start
earlier
4. Priority Value delay lower priority
tasks first
5. Constraints constrained tasks less
likely to be delayed

Short Exercise:
Shortening the Schedule
Identify several
possible reasons why
we might want to
shorten the duration for
a project.

Project
Schedule
Compression

Shortening the
Project Duration
Why would we want to shorten the
duration of a project?
Changed program deadlines
Change in project scope or technical
performance requirements
Budget timing shifts
Shift in Resources M5I

How can you shorten the project

duration? -- Typical Approaches

Shortening the
Project Duration
Descope or decontenting
Technical performance relief or
reduction
Sacrifice quality
Subcontract elements
Introduce different
approach/technology (risk?)
Assign additional resources
Increase utilization of current resources
Rearrange sequencing of tasks

Schedule Compression:
Crashing a Project
Crashing as a problem vs.
crashing as an exercise
Why is this so difficult?
Project system
Intended and unintended
consequences

Crashing by design vs. crashing

by force Example, rebuilding the
interstate

Shortening a Project
Schedule
Shortening durations of critical tasks
usually requires: (1) adding more
resources, (2) changing the scope,
and/or (3) changing the sequencing
Schedule crashing - obtaining the
greatest amount of schedule
compression for the least
incremental cost
Fast tracking parallel processing
activities or overlapping them

Crashing a Project
Recognize a relationship between
project cost and schedule
Provides the project manager
information to make informed
decisions about tradeoff of
time for cost, or vice versa
Specify (normal time, crash time)
and (normal cost, crash cost)

Crashing Sequence
1. Determine critical path
2. Establish cost slope for each
3.
4.
5.

activity on the critical path

Select activity with lowest cost
slope decrease by unit
Recompute new time, cost, and
critical path
Repeat steps 2-4 until the
desired duration is achieved

Crashing Example
Problem
Activity

Cost Slope
cost slope =

Cc C n
Tc Tn

CC = crash cost
Cn = normal cost
Tc = crash time
Tn = normal time

Short Exercise: Project

Schedule Crashing

Predecessor Duration

--

D*

E**

Draw an activity on arc

diagram for the project.
Determine the critical
path and the duration for
the critical path.

Crashing Example Problem

Act

Pred Dur
Dur
Normal Crash

Cost ($) Cost ($) Cost

Normal Crash Slope $/wk

--

400

800

-400

200

800

-600

200

200

---

D*

300

1200

-300

100

800

E** B,C
B

-700
(2 wks)

Short Exercise: Project

Schedule Crashing
Determine the cost slope
for each activity in the
project and select the
activity to crash to
reduce the project by 1
week.

*partial crashing permitted

** no partial crashing permitted

Crashing Example Problem

Act

Pred Dur
Dur
Normal Crash

Cost ($) Cost ($) Cost

Normal Crash Slope $/wk

--

400

800

-400

200

800

-600

200

200

---

D*

300

1200

-300

100

800

E** B,C
B

-700
(2 wks)

*partial crashing permitted

** no partial crashing permitted

Crashing
Limitations
Assumes linear relationship
between time and cost
Not usually true (indirect costs dont
change at same rate as direct costs)

Requires a lot of extra cost

estimation
Time consuming
Ends with tradeoff decision
something has to give C, P, T, or S

Fast-Tracking

Project
Schedule Fast
Tracking

A different approach to project

schedule compression
Overlapping the activity sequencing
example concurrent engineering
EXAMPLE (Factory of the Future)
What are some of the issues in
Fast-tracking?

Shortening Project
Schedules
Original
schedule

Shortened
duration

Overlapped
tasks

Issues in
Project
Scheduling

Scheduling Issues

Scheduling Issues

Busting the critical path

Critical Path MISCONCEPTIONS:
The critical path defines all the
critical project activities; this is all
that is critical for the PM
There is one critical path for a
project
The critical path is a constant
once established for a project

Importance of estimating
Schedule trade-offs ---Cost = f(Performance, Scope,
Time)
Scheduling is only part of a
complete approach to project
management
Tradeoffs between sophistication
and cost of methods for
scheduling estimation & analysis

Scheduling Issues

Scheduling Issues

Project scheduling is critical

Project duration typically a
primary focus
Schedule slippage linked to:

Project scheduling difficult

(developing precedence
relationships, task durations)
Most PMs do not perform
probabilistic analysis
Most new DoD and other major
procurements require project
schedule risk analysis

Increased costs
Unhappy customers
Unhappy management

Next Class Session

Estimation
of Project
Costs

Earned Value
Analysis

Project
Control

Monitoring Project
Progress