Daily FX Research Team

Jamie Saettele
.
www.fxcm.com
sales@fxcm.com
DailyFX jsaettele@dailyfx.com
Senior Currency Strategist
1.212.897.7660
1.888.50. FOREX (36739)
Euro Meets Resistance; Levels Well Defined

LATEST TRADING VIDEO: Major Implications the EURUSD patterns

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BIAS MAY
05/10/2010 BIAS CHANGE OBJECTIVE
EURUSD BEAR 13365 12000, 11000
GBPUSD FLAT
AUDUSD BEAR 9400 TBD
NZDUSD FLAT
USDJPY FLAT
USDCAD BULL 9925 TBD
USDCHF BULL 10900 TBD
GOLD BULL 1156 >1230
CRUDE FLAT

Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)
TREND S3 S2 S1 PL PH R1 R2 R3
EURUSD DN 1.2464 1.2789 1.3041 1.3330 1.3403 1.3618 1.3943 1.4195
GBPUSD DN 1.4692 1.4908 1.5090 1.5289 1.5324 1.5488 1.5705 1.5887
AUDUSD UP 0.8870 0.9002 0.9122 0.9248 0.9261 0.9374 0.9507 0.9626
NZDUSD UP 0.6683 0.6824 0.7044 0.7145 0.7224 0.7405 0.7545 0.7765
USDJPY UP 88.85 90.22 92.03 93.18 93.62 95.21 96.58 98.39
USDCAD DN 0.9713 0.9821 0.9999 1.0072 1.0142 1.0285 1.0393 1.0571
USDCHF UP 1.0010 1.0222 1.0499 1.0679 1.0743 1.0988 1.1200 1.1477

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every week)
TREND S3 S2 S1 PL PH R1 R2 R3
EURUSD DN 1.2894 1.3048 1.3214 1.3362 1.3375 1.3535 1.3689 1.3856
GBPUSD DN 1.4938 1.5064 1.5220 1.5332 1.5361 1.5502 1.5628 1.5784
AUDUSD DN 0.8996 0.9077 0.9177 0.9247 0.9267 0.9358 0.9438 0.9538
NZDUSD DN 0.6966 0.7009 0.7090 0.7114 0.7152 0.7214 0.7257 0.7338
USDJPY DN 89.53 90.56 92.26 92.96 93.62 94.99 96.02 97.72
USDCAD UP 0.9587 0.9758 0.9873 1.0016 1.0072 1.0159 1.0330 1.0445
USDCHF UP 1.0353 1.0477 1.0601 1.0726 1.0726 1.0850 1.0974 1.1098
 Euro / US Dollar
Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

There is no change to my outlook for additional EURUSD weakness over the next several weeks and months.
13365, the high for May thus far, is the level that I am bearish against. The next objective is 12000, which is the
100% extension (where the decline from 13695 would equal the 15149-13267 decline in %).

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 British Pound / US Dollar
Weekly Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The decline below 14780 satisfies bearish expectations. It is possible that the decline completes 3 waves down from
the 2009 high but that bullish count would be at odds with the other USD wave counts. In any case, near term
strength probably tests at least 15125-15190.

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 Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Recent commentary was that “I remain focused on the reversal from two Monday’s ago (AUDUSD), which brings
forth the potential for a double top with the November 2009 high at 9400. However, bears have been unable to
register a close below the short term support line (not to mention the longer term channel line). Of note is the dark
cloud cover candle pattern on the weekly (bearish reversal).” The AUDUSD has plunged below its year + channel
and the next level of interest on the downside is the February low at 8575. 9130 is resistance.

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 New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Since the October top at 7640, the NZDUSD has stair stepped lower. The structure of the decline at this point is 3-3-
5, which is the substructure of a flat. However, there are several variations that would allow for the beginning of a
larger decline. As long as price is below 7446, I lean towards a long term bearish position. Watch the short term
channel for a break.

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 US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Weekly Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

After last week’s extraordinary decline and bounce, I want to take a look at the weekly in order to gain perspective.
The decline from the 2007 high is viewed as a leading diagonal. Leading diagonals are often followed by sharp
second wave advances (sometimes as much as 78.6%). The 61.8% and 78.6% levels are 10915 and 11577. Trading
above 9500 would put the pair back on track towards those levels.
 US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Daily Candles

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Recent commentary was that “the USDCAD has bounced from its lowest level since June 2008. RSI has broken to a
new high (following divergence at the low) and the USDCAD has broken through its 20 day SMA. Consider that 12
month rate of change has turned up from an historically low level and the bullish evidence presented commands
attention.” The pair has soared and broken above its channel but only on an intraday basis. Favor the
upside…10200 is support.

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 US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

The spurious (non-Elliott) channel has served as resistance but I am looking for a break higher. 10900 ideally
holds although the next level of potential support would be 10790.

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 Gold
Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Gold’s year + channel continues to hold and the rally through 1170 suggests that something big may be in the
works. A bullish base has formed and a 3rd of a 3rd wave rally may be underway. I favor this interpretation as
long as price is above 1156 (previously 1124). Targets are above the 1230 high.

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 Light Crude
Daily Closes

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

A look at the daily warns that the slightly upward sloping trend over the past 10 months may be a large
distribution (topping) pattern. Crude has dropped below its 20 day SMA and is now testing a support line. Of
note is that the rally/consolidation from the 2009 low consumed roughly twice the amount of time as the
preceding decline.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday
evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen
crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of
Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex
Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Traders can meet me
at the FXCM Expo in Las Vegas on May 3rd and 4th. You can register to attend at
www.fxcmexpo.com.

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