Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
FOR
SECOND QUARTER 2016
INTRODUCTION
2
1.
1.
Overview
2.
3.
4.
Macroeconomic outlook
OVERVIEW
5
Liquidity
conditions
remained tight in the first
quarter of 2016 due to
monetary policy measures
implemented in the fourth
quarter of 2015.
35.00
2,000.00
30.00
25.00
1,500.00
The
interbank
rate
remained above the Policy
Rate corridor and banks
lending rates generally
rose.
(%)
20.00
1,000.00
15.00
10.00
500.00
Excess Reserves
Lower Bound
OLF Rate
5-day Moving-Ave
Upper-Bound
13-May-16
29-Apr-16
15-Apr-16
1-Apr-16
18-Mar-16
4-Mar-16
19-Feb-16
5-Feb-16
22-Jan-16
8-Jan-16
25-Dec-15
11-Dec-15
27-Nov-15
13-Nov-15
30-Oct-15
2-Oct-15
18-Sep-15
4-Sep-15
21-Aug-15
Bank
left
the
interbank rate outside the
Policy Rate corridor due
to the need to contain
pressure on the exchange
rate.
7-Aug-15
The
16-Oct-15
5.00
OVERVIEW
6
OVERVIEW
7
Percent
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
(1.0)
Jan- Feb- Mar14 14 14
Overall
0.9 0.5 1.2
Food
0.8 0.6 1.3
Non-food 1.0 0.4 1.2
Apr14
0.7
0.7
0.7
May14
0.9
0.8
1.0
Jun14
0.4
0.2
0.7
Oct14
0.1
(0.0
0.2
Nov14
0.4
0.5
0.3
Dec14
0.7
1.3
0.2
Apr15
0.7
0.6
0.8
May15
0.6
0.8
0.4
Jun15
0.6
0.2
1.0
Oct15
6.2
7.4
5.0
Nov15
5.0
6.8
3.1
Dec15
2.1
2.5
1.6
Apr16
0.3
0.8
(0.3
OUTLOOK:
IMF WEO (April 2016) revised downwards global growth to 3.2% in
2016 from the earlier projection of 3.4%.
Advanced countries expected to grow at 1.9% in 2016
inflationary
A tight monetary policy stance was maintained during the review period.
bound of the Policy Rate corridor and OLF rate (Figure 1 below).
The Bank deliberately did not supply funds to the market to bring the
interbank rate back into the Policy Rate corridor in order to help
contain the persistent pressures on the exchange rate.
2,000.00
30.00
25.00
1,500.00
(%)
20.00
1,000.00
15.00
10.00
500.00
5.00
Excess Reserves
Upper-Bound
5-day Moving-Ave
Interbank Rate
13-May-16
29-Apr-16
15-Apr-16
1-Apr-16
18-Mar-16
4-Mar-16
19-Feb-16
5-Feb-16
22-Jan-16
8-Jan-16
25-Dec-15
11-Dec-15
27-Nov-15
13-Nov-15
30-Oct-15
16-Oct-15
2-Oct-15
18-Sep-15
4-Sep-15
21-Aug-15
7-Aug-15
Lower Bound
from 20.7%.
The weighted average Government bond yield rate also
25.00
Percent
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Banks
nominal
interest rates rose
due to high funding
costs, tight liquidity
and high inflation.
Banks lending rates
ranged
between
15.5% to 41% while
the average rose to
27% from 23.8%.
The savings rate for
amounts
above
K20,000.00
also
rose to 12.9% from
10.8%
2,500.00
1,959
2,000.00
1,671
USD' Millions
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
207
240
156
56
8
-
-83
-37
-87
-257
-55
-340
(500.00)
-685
(1,000.00)
-859
Quarter 3 -2015
Mining
FA Foreign - Bank
Quarter 4 -2015
Quarter 1-2016
Manufacturing Total
Other
229
200
194
184
152
US $ Million
100
57
36
(20)
(42)
(98)
(100)
(138)
(149)
(167)
(200)
(260)
(300)
Qtr1
Qtr2
Qtr3
2013
Qtr4
Qtr1
Qtr2
Qtr3
2014
Qtr4
Qtr1
Qtr2
Qtr3
2015
Qtr4
Qtr1
2016
300,000
35,000.00
250,000
30,000.00
10
3,400,000
5
3,200,000
0
3,000,000
25,000.00
200,000
-5
2,800,000
-10
20,000.00
150,000
15,000.00
-15
2,600,000
-20
100,000
10,000.00
2,400,000
-25
2,200,000
50,000
5,000.00
-30
Electricity (MWh)
Copper (MT)
2016 Q1
2015 Q4
2015 Q3
2015 Q2
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q2
2014 Q1
2013 Q4
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
0
2012 Q1
-35
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2,000,000
Gemstones (KG)
Cement Production
600,000
50
500,000
40
200,000
15
180,000
10
160,000
30
400,000
20
140,000
120,000
100,000
300,000
10
200,000
0
80,000
-5
60,000
40,000
100,000
-10
-10
20,000
Cement (MT)
Year-on-year growth
Tourist Arrivals
2016 Q1
2015 Q3
2015 Q1
2014 Q3
2014 Q1
2013 Q3
2013 Q1
-15
2012 Q3
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
-20
2012 Q1
400.0
304.0
200.0
0.0
223.7
-77.1
-81.8
-214.4
-200.0
-168.6
-294.5
-400.0
-482.5
-600.0
-800.0
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
Balance on goods
Balance on Seconday Income
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
Balance on Services
Current Account Balance
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
December 2015.
Food inflation rose to 26.2% from 24.8%.
Non-food inflation increased to 17.9% from 17.1%.
20.0
15.0
10.0
Overall Inflation
Food inflation
Non-food inflation
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
5.0
Jan-15
Percent
25.0
Percent
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
(1.0)
Jan14
Overall
0.9
Food
0.8
Non-food 1.0
Feb14
0.5
0.6
0.4
Mar14
1.2
1.3
1.2
Apr- May14
14
0.7 0.9
0.7 0.8
0.7 1.0
Jun14
0.4
0.2
0.7
Oct14
0.1
(0.0
0.2
Nov14
0.4
0.5
0.3
Dec14
0.7
1.3
0.2
Jan15
0.7
0.7
0.7
Feb15
0.3
0.8
(0.3
Mar15
1.0
1.0
1.1
Apr- May15
15
0.7 0.6
0.6 0.8
0.8 0.4
Jun15
0.6
0.2
1.0
Oct15
6.2
7.4
5.0
Nov15
5.0
6.8
3.1
Dec15
2.1
2.5
1.6
Jan16
1.3
1.6
0.9
Feb16
1.2
1.2
1.2
Mar16
0.5
0.9
-
Apr16
0.3
0.8
(0.3
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
37
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
38
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
39
and,
Lending rates remaining relatively high in the second quarter of
2016.
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
40
Figure 19: Expectations
Credit expectations
Inflation expectations
-3
-2
2016_Q1
-1
2015_Q3
2015_Q1
End of Presentation
Thank you