Focus

Methodology for Estimating Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant

Emissions Related to Road Networks
Seung Kook WU_ Associate Research Fellow, Center for Transport and Climate Change
Young Kuk KIM_ Associate Research Fellow, Research Center for KTX Economic Development and Transit-oriented Development

Summary
This study is aimed at developing new procedures for estimating greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions related to road networks. Under
this goal, this study suggests two approaches: one is based on vehicle information obtained through detectors, while the other uses the
results of a transport planning model.
Methodology Based on Detector Information
This method involves the use of traffic counts and speeds reported by detectors installed on expressways and national roads. By using this
information plus emission factors for greenhouse gases and pollutants, emissions are estimated for each road segment.
This approach is applied to target road segments, thereby investigating the characteristics of greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions by
segment and by hour of the day.
Methodology Based on a Transport Planning Model
This method makes it possible to produce emission estimates for all the road segments incorporated in the model. These estimations can be
used in drawing up emission maps. This study shows the procedures as well as the maps themselves.

SilchonGwangju section of national road

No. 3, and the BongdamDeok section of
the national road No. 43.

A. Target Road Segments

B. Relationship Among Speed, Traffic

Volume and Emissions
<Figure 1> shows daily patterns of change
in the speed, the 15-minute flow rate and

Figure 1 | The speed, 15-minute flow rate and emissions on the Pyeongchon-Sanbon section of the
Seoul circular beltway (Left : CO2, Right : NOX)
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The target segments were selected from

among freeways and national roads passing
through the Seoul metropolitan area and
the surrounding Gyeonggi province.
They included freeways such as the Seoul
circular beltway and Yeongdong, Jungbu,
West Coast, Gyeongbu and PyeongtaekEumseong expressways, as well as national
roads Nos. 1, 3, 42, 43 and 45. The screening
process involved examination of graphs
representing speeds and traffic patterns. In
addition, the roads were compared in terms
of traffic volume data obtained through
permanent/temporary counting as well as
via detectors. Through these procedures, the
following four segments were selected for
the good quality of relevant traffic data: the
HakeuiPangyo and PyeongchonSanbon
sections of the Seoul circular beltway, the

carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions

on the PyeongchonSanbon section of the
Seoul circular beltway. The graphs show
carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide emission
levels rising while responding sensitively
to traffic volume increases and speed
reduction. Of the two gases, carbon dioxide
displayed a higher level of sensitivity to

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Emission Estimation Based on

Information Reported by Detectors

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KOTI World-Brief
May 2012 Vol.4 No.37

Figure 2 | NOx emission on the Silchon-Gwangju section of the national road No. 3

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such factors. These results indicate the need

to ensure rigorous speed control for effective
management of greenhouse gas emissions.

C. CO2 Emissions by Mode and Hour of

the Day
Buses and trucks accounted for 21% to 37%
of the traffic counts on the four selected
segments. However, the two modes took a
combined share of more than 40% in CO2
emissions on the segments every hour of the
day. This is because they have much higher
emission factors than passenger cars for
the same speed. On the SilchonGwangju
section of national road No. 3, known for
its particularly high level of freight truck
traffic, buses and trucks accounted for as
much as 60% of the total CO2 emissions.

D. NOx Emissions by Mode and Hour of

the Day
Operation of heavy vehicles was found to
have a higher impact on NOx emissions
than on CO2 discharge. This phenomenon
was well illustrated by the emission status
of the above-mentioned SilchonGwangju
section, which recorded a particularly

high level of freight truck traffic. On this

section, heavy vehicles accounted for 90%
of NOx emissions, although they took a
share of just 37% in terms of the traffic
counts. This result signals the significance
of heavy vehicle control in NOx emissions
management.

E. Relationship Between Emissions and

Congestion
As shown in the graphs, there is a
proportional linear relationship between
emissions and congestion, except for
unstable flow conditions. This is because
the emission factor barely changes at certain
speed ranges where the observed values
are concentrated, serving as a constant that
multiplies traffic volume in the equation for
emission estimation. The values observed
in unstable flow conditions show generally
slower speeds and different types of slopes
compared to mainstream values. These
results indicate the need to ensure stable
traffic flows for CO2 and NOx emissions
management.

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Producing Greenhouse Gas and Air

Pollutant Emission Maps
A. Emission Estimation Based on a
Transport Planning Model
Carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide
(NOX) emission estimates are produced by
using the emission estimation equation.
The equation includes an emission factor
that varies depending on vehicle type,
fuel, speed and model year. This process
involves classifying the vehicles in current
operation by type, fuel and model year
and calculating their speeds for each travel
section. The values gained through this
process are substituted into the equation
to estimate the emissions of each vehicle.
This approach based on a transport planning
model can be used in estimating emissions
from all road segments incorporated in the
model. Therefore, it is possible to produce
greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission
maps by using the emission estimates
produced via this method.
<Figure 5> shows an air pollutant emission
map drawn up by using a nationwide arterial

Focus

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Figure 3 | CO2 emissions (left) and NOx emissions (middle) for V/C ratio and congestion and speed-flow
rate relationship (right) on the Pyeongchon-Sanbon section of the Seoul circular beltway

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Figure 4 | CO2 emissions (left) and NOx emissions (middle) for V/C ratio and congestion and speed-flow
rate relationship (right) on the Silchon-Gwangju section of the national road No. 3

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By mode, passenger cars and trucks had

similar CO 2 emission estimates which
stood at around 71,000 tons, while buses
were estimated to be emitting 28,000 tons
of CO2. In terms of the vehicle kilometers
travelled (VKT), passenger cars and trucks
recorded 350.2 million km vehicle and 128.4
million km vehicle, respectively. This result
indicates that a truck's per-kilometer CO2
emission level is 2.7 times as high as that
of a passenger car. This can be explained
by the following facts: 1) the fuel efficiency
of trucks is generally lower than that of
passengers cars, and 2) passenger cars
normally use gasoline while trucks mostly
use diesel which has higher carbon content
than gasoline.

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road network model at KOTI's National

Transport DB Center. An emission map
illustrates regional differences in emission
levels. As such, it can be used for the
following purposes. First, the map can be
used in quantifying the results obtained
through the implementation of pollution
reduction policies. Second, it can be used in
adjusting policy priorities by identifying the
areas with extensive pollution levels.
<Table 1> shows CO2 emission estimates
produced by using the speed and volume
results of a transport planning model. The
table presents a comparison of two types
of emission estimates. The first estimations
were produced through the application
of average daily speeds calculated by
using daily traffic volume based on origin-

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concerning the road capacity could have led

to the production of an unrealistically low
speed estimate, and eventually to a result
contrary to the original prediction.

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destination traffic matrices. The second one

involved the application of average hourly
speeds based on hourly traffic counts, which
were calculated by dividing the daily traffic
volume into hourly portions. The estimated
CO 2 emissions based on average daily
speeds reached 176,741 tons, slightly higher
than the 170,996 tons calculated by adding
all the hourly emissions based on average
hourly speeds. Originally, it was predicted
that the method based on hourly speeds
would produce higher values, given the
equation's dependence on speed as well as
the tendency that an increase in speed leads
to a decrease in emissions. Yet, the analysis
produced a contrary result. The average daily
speed is normally produced on the basis
of road capacity and daily traffic volume.
So, application of an underestimated value

There were considerable differences in NOx

emissions depending on modes. Trucks
recorded 688 tons, a predominantly high
level compared to buses or passenger cars.
Figure 3 | NOx emission map

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KOTI World-Brief
May 2012 Vol.4 No.37

Table 1 | CO2 emissions by region and mode

Unit : ton, %

Based on daily average speed

Category

Based on hourly average speed

Passenger cars

Buses

Freight trucks

Total

Passenger cars

Buses

Freight trucks

Total

Capital
area

41,528

16,801

29,104

87,433

40,634

16,724

25,991

83,349

58.5

59.2

37.6

49.5

57.1

58.8

36.4

48.7

Gangwon
area

1,673

823

2,228

4,724

1,707

832

2,195

4,733

2.4

2.9

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.9

3.1

2.8

Chungcheong
area

6,354

2,560

12,172

21,085

6,432

2,505

11,613

20,551

8.9

9.0

15.7

11.9

9.0

8.8

16.3

12.0

Jeolla
area

4,291

2,030

7,464

13,785

4,440

2,080

7,217

13,738

6.0

7.2

9.6

7.8

6.2

7.3

10.1

8.0

Gyeongsang
area

17,179

6,146

26,389

49,714

17,926

6,296

24,404

48,626

Total

24.2

21.7

34.1

28.1

25.2

22.1

34.2

28.4

71,024

28,359

77,358

176,741

71,140

28,436

71,421

170,996

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

This phenomenon can be explained by

the fact that diesel cars have higher NOx
emission factors than gasoline cars. Due
to this discrepancy in the emission factor,
trucks recorded an extremely high level of
NOx emissions although they fell behind
passenger cars in terms of total VKT. Buses
also use diesel, but their total travel distance
was lower than that of trucks. Thus, the NOx
emission estimate of buses was lower than
that of trucks.

B. Analysis of Emissions by Traffic Scenario

One remarkable strength of the approach

based on a transport planning model is that

it makes it possible to forecast emission
changes that could take place under various
scenarios regarding future traffic conditions.
This study compared changes in CO2 and
NOx emissions that could be caused by
5% and 10% increases in interregional OD
traffic. <Figure 6> presents a comparison of
growth in CO2 emissions by region and mode
depending on OD traffic increases. The graph
shows that emissions rise at higher rates than
OD traffic increases. The level of change
differs by region and mode. The emissions
growth rates were particularly high in the

Figure 6 | Growth in CO2 emissions in relation to OD traffic increases by area and mode
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Seoul metropolitan area and the Gyeongsang

area. This phenomenon could be ascribable
to these regions' relatively high congestion
levels. These two regions experience speed
reductions related to OD traffic growth more
frequently than other areas, thus recording
higher emission growth rates.
Various equations were used to estimate CO2
and NOx emissions. By mode, passenger
cars account for the largest portion of the
available emission estimation equations,
while trucks have the lowest share. The
emission factors for trucks are generally
more than 10 times as high as those for
passengers cars. In some cases, the emission
values applied for trucks were as many as
30 times higher than those for passenger
cars. Differences in the emission factors
led to great gaps in emission estimates. As
for NOx emissions, the emission estimate
of trucks was almost the same as that of
passengers cars. This can be considered
an overestimation that resulted from the
application of excessively high emission
values for trucks. This demonstrates the
need to secure more diversified emission
factors for trucks in order to gain correct
emission estimates.