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THREAT OF
NEW ENTRANTS
Barriers to Entry
Absolute cost advantages
Proprietary learning curve
Access to inputs
Government policy
Economies of scale
Capital requirements
Brand identity
Switching costs
Access to distribution
Expected retaliation
Proprietary products
THREAT OF
SUBSTITUTES
-Switching costs
-Buyer inclination to
substitute
-Price-performance
trade-off of substitutes
BUYER POWER
Bargaining leverage
Buyer volume
Buyer information
Brand identity
Price sensitivity
Threat of backward integration
Product differentiation
Buyer concentration vs. industry
Substitutes available
Buyers' incentives
DEGREE OF RIVALRY
-Exit barriers
-Industry concentration
-Fixed costs/Value added
-Industry growth
-Intermittent overcapacity
-Product differences
-Switching costs
-Brand identity
-Diversity of rivals
-Corporate stakes
I. Rivalry
In the traditional economic model, competition among rival firms drives profits to zero.
But competition is not perfect and firms are not unsophisticated passive price takers.
Rather, firms strive for a competitive advantage over their rivals. The intensity of rivalry
among firms varies across industries, and strategic analysts are interested in these
differences.
Economists measure rivalry by indicators of industry concentration. The Concentration
Ratio (CR) is one such measure. The Bureau of Census periodically reports the CR for
major Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC's). The CR indicates the percent of
market share held by the four largest firms (CR's for the largest 8, 25, and 50 firms in an
industry also are available). A high concentration ratio indicates that a high
concentration of market share is held by the largest firms - the industry is concentrated.
With only a few firms holding a large market share, the competitive landscape is less
competitive (closer to a monopoly). A low concentration ratio indicates that the industry
is characterized by many rivals, none of which has a significant market share. These
fragmented markets are said to be competitive. The concentration ratio is not the only
available measure; the trend is to define industries in terms that convey more
information than distribution of market share.
If rivalry among firms in an industry is low, the industry is considered to be disciplined.
This discipline may result from the industry's history of competition, the role of a leading
firm, or informal compliance with a generally understood code of conduct. Explicit
collusion generally is illegal and not an option; in low-rivalry industries competitive
moves must be constrained informally. However, a maverick firm seeking a competitive
advantage can displace the otherwise disciplined market.
When a rival acts in a way that elicits a counter-response by other firms, rivalry
intensifies. The intensity of rivalry commonly is referred to as being cutthroat, intense,
moderate, or weak, based on the firms' aggressiveness in attempting to gain an
advantage.
In pursuing an advantage over its rivals, a firm can choose from several competitive
moves:
jewelry stores reluctant to carry its watches, Timex moved into drugstores and
other non-traditional outlets and cornered the low to mid-price watch market.
Exploiting relationships with suppliers - for example, from the 1950's to the
1970's Sears, Roebuck and Co. dominated the retail household appliance
market. Sears set high quality standards and required suppliers to meet its
demands for product specifications and price.
investment could not be sold easily, and Litton was forced to stay in a declining
shipbuilding market.
9. A diversity of rivals with different cultures, histories, and philosophies make an
industry unstable. There is greater possibility for mavericks and for misjudging
rival's moves. Rivalry is volatile and can be intense. The hospital industry, for
example, is populated by hospitals that historically are community or charitable
institutions, by hospitals that are associated with religious organizations or
universities, and by hospitals that are for-profit enterprises. This mix of
philosophies about mission has lead occasionally to fierce local struggles by
hospitals over who will get expensive diagnostic and therapeutic services. At
other times, local hospitals are highly cooperative with one another on issues
such as community disaster planning.
10. Industry Shakeout. A growing market and the potential for high profits induces
new firms to enter a market and incumbent firms to increase production. A point
is reached where the industry becomes crowded with competitors, and demand
cannot support the new entrants and the resulting increased supply. The industry
may become crowded if its growth rate slows and the market becomes saturated,
creating a situation of excess capacity with too many goods chasing too few
buyers. A shakeout ensues, with intense competition, price wars, and company
failures.
BCG founder Bruce Henderson generalized this observation as the Rule of Three
and Four: a stable market will not have more than three significant competitors,
and the largest competitor will have no more than four times the market share of
the smallest. If this rule is true, it implies that:
o If there is a larger number of competitors, a shakeout is inevitable
o Surviving rivals will have to grow faster than the market
o Eventual losers will have a negative cash flow if they attempt to grow
o All except the two largest rivals will be losers
o The definition of what constitutes the "market" is strategically important.
Whatever the merits of this rule for stable markets, it is clear that market stability
and changes in supply and demand affect rivalry. Cyclical demand tends to
create cutthroat competition. This is true in the disposable diaper industry in
which demand fluctuates with birth rates, and in the greeting card industry in
which there are more predictable business cycles.
II. Threat Of Substitutes
Example
Buyers possess a credible backward integration threat can threaten to buy producing firm or rival
Example
Example
Suppliers concentrated
Customers Powerful
Example
Concentrated purchasers
Customers Weak
enter were limited by state governments. As a result, most banks were local
commercial and retail banking facilities. Banks competed through strategies that
emphasized simple marketing devices such as awarding toasters to new
customers for opening a checking account. When banks were deregulated,
banks were permitted to cross state boundaries and expand their markets.
Deregulation of banks intensified rivalry and created uncertainty for banks as
they attempted to maintain market share. In the late 1970's, the strategy of banks
shifted from simple marketing tactics to mergers and geographic expansion as
rivals attempted to expand markets.
2. Patents and proprietary knowledge serve to restrict entry into an industry.
Ideas and knowledge that provide competitive advantages are treated as private
property when patented, preventing others from using the knowledge and thus
creating a barrier to entry. Edwin Land introduced the Polaroid camera in 1947
and held a monopoly in the instant photography industry. In 1975, Kodak
attempted to enter the instant camera market and sold a comparable camera.
Polaroid sued for patent infringement and won, keeping Kodak out of the instant
camera industry.
3. Asset specificity inhibits entry into an industry. Asset specificity is the extent
to which the firm's assets can be utilized to produce a different product. When an
industry requires highly specialized technology or plants and equipment, potential
entrants are reluctant to commit to acquiring specialized assets that cannot be
sold or converted into other uses if the venture fails. Asset specificity provides a
barrier to entry for two reasons: First, when firms already hold specialized assets
they fiercely resist efforts by others from taking their market share. New entrants
can anticipate aggressive rivalry. For example, Kodak had much capital invested
in its photographic equipment business and aggressively resisted efforts by Fuji
to intrude in its market. These assets are both large and industry specific. The
second reason is that potential entrants are reluctant to make investments in
highly specialized assets.
4. Organizational (Internal) Economies of Scale. The most cost efficient level of
production is termed Minimum Efficient Scale (MES). This is the point at which
unit costs for production are at minimum - i.e., the most cost efficient level of
production. If MES for firms in an industry is known, then we can determine the
amount of market share necessary for low cost entry or cost parity with rivals. For
example, in long distance communications roughly 10% of the market is
necessary for MES. If sales for a long distance operator fail to reach 10% of the
market, the firm is not competitive.
The existence of such an economy of scale creates a barrier to entry. The greater
the difference between industry MES and entry unit costs, the greater the barrier
to entry. So industries with high MES deter entry of small, start-up businesses. To
operate at less than MES there must be a consideration that permits the firm to
sell at a premium price - such as product differentiation or local monopoly.
Barriers to exit work similarly to barriers to entry. Exit barriers limit the ability of a firm to
leave the market and can exacerbate rivalry - unable to leave the industry, a firm must
compete. Some of an industry's entry and exit barriers can be summarized as follows:
Common technology
Salable assets
Specialized assets
Independent businesses
Interrelated businesses
1945
1966
1983
1988
1 US Steel
General Motors
General Motors
Exxon
General Motors
2 Swift
US Steel
Ford
General Motors
Ford
3 Armour
General Electric
Exxon
Texaco
IBM
Ford
General Electric
6 Bethlehem Steel
Swift
Mobil
IBM
Mobil
7 Ford
Armour
Texaco
Socal (Oil)
Chrysler
8 DuPont
Curtiss-Wright
US Steel
DuPont
Texaco
9 American Sugar
Chrysler
IBM
Gulf Oil
DuPont
10 General Electric
Ford
Gulf Oil
1987
1 US STEEL
5 equipment
MOBIL OIL
GENERAL ELECTRIC
(1909= 16)
8 sold to ConAgra)
corporate level
The business unit level is the primary context of industry rivalry. Michael Porter
identified three generic strategies (cost leadership, differentiation, and focus) that can
be implemented at the business unit level to create a competitive advantage. The
proper generic strategy will position the firm to leverage its strengths and defend against
the adverse effects of the five forces.
Recommended Reading
Porter, Michael E., Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors
Competitive Strategy is the basis for much of modern business strategy. In this classic work, Michael
Porter presents his five forces and generic strategies, then discusses how to recognize and act on market
signals and how to forecast the evolution of industry structure. He then discusses competitive strategy for
emerging, mature, declining, and fragmented industries. The last part of the book covers strategic
decisions related to vertical integration, capacity expansion, and entry into an industry. The book
concludes with an appendix on how to conduct an industry analysis.
Porter's five forces analysis is a framework for industry analysis and business strategy
development formed by Michael E. Porter of Harvard Business School in 1979. It draws upon
industrial organization (IO) economics to derive five forces that determine the competitive
intensity and therefore attractiveness of a market. Attractiveness in this context refers to the
overall industry profitability. An "unattractive" industry is one in which the combination of these
five forces acts to drive down overall profitability. A very unattractive industry would be one
approaching "pure competition", in which available profits for all firms are driven to normal
profit.
Three of Porter's five forces refer to competition from external sources. The remainder are
internal threats.
Porter referred to these forces as the micro environment, to contrast it with the more general term
macro environment. They consist of those forces close to a company that affect its ability to
serve its customers and make a profit. A change in any of the forces normally, requires a business
unit to re-assess the marketplace given the overall change in industry information. The overall
industry attractiveness does not imply that every firm in the industry will return the same
profitability. Firms are able to apply their core competencies, business model or network to
achieve a profit above the industry average. A clear example of this is the airline industry. As an
industry, profitability is low and yet individual companies, by applying unique business models,
have been able to make a return in excess of the industry average.
Porter's five forces include - three forces from 'horizontal' competition: threat of substitute
products, the threat of established rivals, and the threat of new entrants; and two forces from
'vertical' competition: the bargaining power of suppliers and the bargaining power of customers.
This five forces analysis, is just one part of the complete Porter strategic models. The other
elements are the value chain and the generic strategies.[citation needed]
Porter developed his Five Forces analysis in reaction to the then-popular SWOT analysis, which
he found unrigorous and ad hoc.[1] Porter's five forces is based on the Structure-ConductPerformance paradigm in industrial organizational economics. It has been applied to a diverse
range of problems, from helping businesses become more profitable to helping governments
stabilize industries.[2]
Contents
[hide]
1 Five forces
o 1.1 Threat of new competition
o 1.2 Threat of substitute products or services
o 1.3 Bargaining power of customers (buyers)
2 Usage
3 Criticisms
4 See also
5 References
6 Further reading
7 External links
The existence of barriers to entry (patents, rights, etc.) The most attractive segment is one
in which entry barriers are high and exit barriers are low. Few new firms can enter and
non-performing firms can exit easily.
Brand equity
Capital requirements
Access to distribution
Absolute cost
Industry profitability; the more profitable the industry the more attractive it will be to
new competitors.
Substandard product
Quality depreciation
Buyer volume
RFM Analysis
Supplier competition - ability to forward vertically integrate and cut out the BUYER
Ex.: If you are making biscuits and there is only one person who sells flour, you have no
alternative but to buy it from him.
[edit] Usage
Strategy consultants occasionally use Porter's five forces framework when making a qualitative
evaluation of a firm's strategic position. However, for most consultants, the framework is only a
starting point or "checklist." They might use " Value Chain" afterward. Like all general
frameworks, an analysis that uses it to the exclusion of specifics about a particular situation is
considered nave.
According to Porter, the five forces model should be used at the line-of-business industry level; it
is not designed to be used at the industry group or industry sector level. An industry is defined at
a lower, more basic level: a market in which similar or closely related products and/or services
are sold to buyers. (See industry information.) A firm that competes in a single industry should
develop, at a minimum, one five forces analysis for its industry. Porter makes clear that for
diversified companies, the first fundamental issue in corporate strategy is the selection of
industries (lines of business) in which the company should compete; and each line of business
should develop its own, industry-specific, five forces analysis. The average Global 1,000
company competes in approximately 52 industries (lines of business).
[edit] Criticisms
Porter's framework has been challenged by other academics and strategists such as Stewart Neill.
Similarly, the likes of Kevin P. Coyne [1] and Somu Subramaniam have stated that three dubious
assumptions underlie the five forces:
That buyers, competitors, and suppliers are unrelated and do not interact and collude.
That uncertainty is low, allowing participants in a market to plan for and respond to
competitive behavior. [3]
An important extension to Porter was found in the work of Adam Brandenburger and Barry
Nalebuff in the mid-1990s. Using game theory, they added the concept of complementors (also
called "the 6th force"), helping to explain the reasoning behind strategic alliances. The idea that
complementors are the sixth force has often been credited to Andrew Grove, former CEO of Intel
Corporation. According to most references, the sixth force is government or the public. Martyn
Richard Jones, whilst consulting at Groupe Bull, developed an augmented 5 forces model in
Scotland in 1993. It is based on Porter's model and includes Government (national and regional)
as well as Pressure Groups as the notional 6th force. This model was the result of work carried
out as part of Groupe Bull's Knowledge Asset Management Organisation initiative.
Porter indirectly rebutted the assertions of other forces, by referring to innovation, government,
and complementary products and services as "factors" that affect the five forces.[4]
It is also perhaps not feasible to evaluate the attractiveness of an industry independent of the
resources a firm brings to that industry. It is thus argued[citation needed] that this theory be coupled
with the Resource-Based View (RBV) in order for the firm to develop a much more sound
strategy.
A means of providing corporations with an analysis of their competition and determining
strategy, Porter's five-forces model looks at the strength of five distinct competitive forces,
which, when taken together, determine long-term profitability and competition. Porter's work has
had a greater influence on business strategy than any other theory in the last half of the twentieth
century, and his more recent work may have a similar impact on global competition.
Michigan native Michael Porter was born in 1947, was educated at Princeton, and earned an
MBA (1971) and Ph.D. (1973) from Harvard. He was promoted to full professor at Harvard at
age 34 and is currently C. Roland Christensen Professor of Business Administration at the
Harvard Business School. He has published numerous books and articles, the first Interbrand
Choice, Strategy and Bilateral Market Power, appearing in 1976. His best known and most
widely used and referenced books are Competitive Strategy (1980) and Competitive Advantage
(1985). Competitive Strategy revolutionized contemporary approaches to business strategy
through application of the five-forces model. In Competitive Advantage, Porter further developed
his strategy concepts to include the creation of a sustainable advantage. His other model, the
value chain model, centers on product added value. Porter's work is widely read by business
strategists around the world as well as business students. Any MBA student recognizes his name
as one of the icons of business literature. The Strategic Management Society named Porter the
most important living strategist in 1998, and Kevin Coyne of the consulting firm McKinsey and
Co. called Porter "the single most important strategist working today, and maybe of all time."
The five-forces model was developed in Porter's 1980 book, Competitive Strategy: Techniques
for Analyzing Industries and Competitors. To Porter, the classic means of developing a strategy
a formula for competition, goals, and policies to achieve those goalswas antiquated and in
need of revision. Porter was searching for a solution between the two schools of prevailing
thought-the Harvard Business School's urging firms to adjust to a unique set of changing
circumstances and that of the Boston Consulting Group, based on the experience curve, whereby
the more a company knows about the existing market, the more its strategy can be directed to
increase its share of the market.
Figure 1
Porter applied microeconomic principles to business strategy and analyzed the strategic
requirements of industrial sectors, not just specific companies. The five forces are competitive
factors which determine industry competition and include: suppliers, rivalry within an industry,
substitute products, customers or buyers, and new entrants (see Figure 1).
Although the strength of each force can vary from industry to industry, the forces, when
considered together, determine long-term profitability within the specific industrial sector. The
strength of each force is a separate function of the industry structure, which Porter defines as "the
underlying economic and technical characteristics of an industry." Collectively, the five forces
affect prices, necessary investment for competitiveness, market share, potential profits, profit
margins, and industry volume. The key to the success of an industry, and thus the key to the
model, is analyzing the changing dynamics and continuous flux between and within the five
forces. Porter's model depends on the concept of power within the relationships of the five
forces.
Substitute products are the natural result of industry competition, but they place a limit on
profitability within the industry. A substitute product involves the search for a product that can do
the same function as the product the industry already produces. Porter uses the example of
security brokers, who increasingly face substitutes in the form of real estate, money-market
funds, and insurance. Substitute products take on added importance as their availability
increases.
POTENTIAL ENTRANTS.
Threats of new entrants into an industry depend largely on barriers to entry. Porter identifies six
major barriers to entry:
Economies of scale, or decline in unit costs of the product, which force the entrant to
enter on a large scale and risk a strong reaction from firms already in the industry, or
accepting a disadvantage of costs if entering on a small scale.
Capital requirements for entry; the investment of large capital, after all, presents a
significant risk.
Switching costs, or the cost the buyer has to absorb to switch from one supplier to
another.
New entrants can also expect a barrier in the form of government policy through federal and state
regulations and licensing. New firms can expect retaliation from existing companies and also
face changing barriers related to technology, strategic planning within the industry, and
manpower and expertise problems. The entry deterring price or the existence of a prevailing
price structure presents an additional challenge to a firm entering an established industry.
In summary, Porter's five-forces models concentrates on five structural industry features that
comprise the competitive environment, and hence profitability, of an industry. Applying the
model means, to be profitable, the firm has to find and establish itself in an industry so that the
company can react to the forces of competition in a favorable manner. For Porter, Competitive
Strategy is not a book for academics but a blueprint for practitioners-a tool for managers to
analyze competition in an industry in order to anticipate and prepare for changes in the industry,
new competitors and market shifts, and to enhance their firm's overall industry standing.
Throughout the relevant sections of Competitive Strategy, Porter uses numerous industry
examples to illustrate his theory. Since those examples are now over twenty years old, changes in
technology and other industrial shifts and trends have made them somewhat obsolete. Although
immediate praise for the book and the five-forces model was exhaustive, critiques of Porter have
appeared in business literature. Porter's model does not, for example, consider nonmarket
changes, such as events in the political arena that impact an industry. Furthermore, Porter's
model has come under fire for what critics see as his under-evaluation of government regulation
and antitrust violations. Overall, criticisms of the model find their nexus in the lack of
consideration by Porter of rapidly changing industry dynamics. In virtually all instances, critics
also present alternatives to Porter's model.
Yet, in a Fortune interview in early 1999, Porter responded to the challenges, saying he
welcomed the "fertile intellectual debate" that stemmed from his work. He admitted he had
ignored writing about strategy in recent years but emphasized his desire to reenter the fray
discussing his work and addressing questions about the model, its application, and the confusion
about what really constitutes strategy. Porter's The Competitive Advantage of Nations (1990) and
the more recent On Competition (1998) demonstrate his desire to further stimulate discussion in
the business and academic worlds.