Homework #6

Answer the following. Show your solution. Use short bond paper.
1. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time P(D)=0.83; the probability that
it arrives on time is P(A)=0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is
P(DA)=0.78. Find the probability that a plane
a) arrives on time given that it departed on time.
b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
Solution:
a) The probability that a plane arrives on time, given that it departed on time, is

P( A D )

P( D A) 0.78

0.94
P( D )
0.83

b) The probability that a plane departed on time, given that it has arrived on time, is

P( D A)

P( D A) 0.78

0.95
P( A)
0.82

2. Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are
selected at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing the first, what
is the probability that both fuses are defective?
Solution: We shall let A be the event that the first fuse is defective and B the event that the
second fuse is defective; then we interpret AB as the event that A occurs and then B occurs
after A occurred. The probability of first removing a defective fuse is

P( A)

5
1

20 4

The probability of removing a second defective fuse after a defective first fuse was removed is

P( B A)

4
19

Hence, P( A B ) P( A) P( B A)

1 4
1

0.053
4 19 19

3. A paint store chain produces and sells latex and semi-gloss paint. Based on long range sales,
the probability that a customer will purchase latex paint is 0.75. Of those that purchase latex
paint, 60% also purchase rollers. But only 30% of semi-gloss paint buyers purchase rollers.
Suppose a randomly selected customer purchases a can of paint. What is the probability that
he/she purchases a roller?
C

Solution: Let L be the event that a customer will purchase latex paint, L be the event that a
customer will purchase semi-gloss paint and R be the event that a customer will buy a roller.
Using the rule on total probability,
C

P( R ) P( L) P( R L ) P( LC ) P( R L ) (0.75)(0.60) (0.25)(0.30) 0.525

4. An overseas shipment of 5 foreign automobiles contains 2 that have slight paint blemishes. If
an agency receives 3 of these automobiles at random,
a. List the elements of the sample space S, using letters B and N for blemished and non
st
nd
blemished, respectively; also use subscripts 1,2.. to indicate the 1 , 2 , .. blemished or
non blemished automobile. Then to each sample point assign a value x of the random
variable X representing the number of automobiles with paint blemishes purchased by the
agency. (Hint: There will be 5C3=10 possible outcomes.)
b. Construct the discrete probability distribution for the random variable X.

c.

Compute the expected number of automobiles with paint blemishes purchased by the
agency.

Solution:
a)
No.

Sample Point
1
N1N2N3
2
N1N2B1
3
N1N2B2
4
N1N3B1
5
N1N3B2
6
N2N3B1
7
N2N3B2
8
N1B1B2
9
N2B1B2
10
N3B1B2
b) Probability distribution of X
x
0
1
P(X=x)
1/10
6/10

X
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3/10

c) Expected number of X
3
1 6 3 12
E( X ) xi f ( xi ) 0 1 2
1 .2
10 10 10 10
i 1

5. The total number of hours, measured in units of 100 hours, that a family runs a vacuum
cleaner over a period of one year is a continuous random variable X that has the density
function
,
0< <1
( ) = 2 ,1 < 2
0,
.
Find the probability that over a period of one year, a family runs their vacuum cleaner
a. Less than 120 hours;
b. Between 50 and 100 hours.
Solution: First, we draw the graph of f(x).

f(x)=x
f(x)=2-x

a) Since x is expressed in units of 100 hours, 120 hours corresponds to x=1.2, the probability
that x<1.2 is equal to the total area of 1 minus the area to the right of 1.2. The area under the
curve to the right of x=1.2 is a triangle, then we can use the formula of the area of a triangle,

(base)(height). Note that the height of the graph at x=1.2 is f(1.2)=2-1.20=0.8, and the base
from 1.2 to 2 has a length of 0.8.

1
P( X 1.2) 1 P( X 1.2) 1 (0.8)(0.8) 1 0.32 0.68 .
2
b) 50 hours corresponds to x=0.5 and 100 hours corresponds to x=1, hence we want to
determine the probability that x lies between 0.5 and 1. Again we can use the area of the
triangle.

P(0.5 X 1.0) P( x 1) P( x 0.5)

1
1
(1)(1) (0.5)(0.5) 0.5 0.125 0.375
2
2