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ANALISIS DE CONSISTENC

ESTACION WEBERBAUER
AO ENERO
FEBRERO
30.30
50.40
1964
1965 121.10
81.40
1966 62.70
45.90
1967 120.90
139.50
81.00
1968 58.00
73.70
1969 42.00
41.80
1970 71.00
97.80
1971 58.40
67.60
1972 55.50
70.70
1973 95.30
128.20
1974 76.80
181.80
1975 137.60
62.90
1976 130.40
146.40
1977 129.90
34.40
1978 12.70
81.60
1979 84.10
1980 34.90
42.40
1981 78.20
186.50
1982 71.80
102.90
1983 116.60
75.70
1984 24.70
233.60
1985 24.60
42.40
1986 84.40
47.70
1987 98.00
95.20
1988 109.70
105.50
158.80
1989 87.00
95.30
1990 101.00
90.00
1991 43.80
2117.60
2571.10
78.430
95.226

AO
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971

ENERO
43.00
33.90
185.00
52.60
13.10
73.00
48.70
53.40

FEBRERO
55.00
87.20
223.10
56.10
146.40
31.50
57.20
96.50

MARZO
357.30
121.10
54.50
109.10
67.70
83.50
79.90
275.70
11.80
91.60
95.20
238.50
81.30
141.90
48.80
159.70
65.00
105.70
75.70
152.80
123.80
37.20
96.80
39.20
44.80
113.50
101.80
133.70
2973.90
110.144

MARZO
182.30
75.50
84.30
37.50
111.70
92.20
234.50
175.20

ABRIL
56.20
41.70
41.90
32.30
26.20
85.70
54.50
54.70
76.20
98.40
58.50
70.70
55.20
42.60
37.00
37.10
29.30
33.70
88.70
105.70
80.00
41.90
120.20
52.20
95.60
85.40
62.00
55.20
1663.60
61.615

MAYO
JUNIO JULIO
12.30
6.60
1.60
12.10
11.10
2.90
44.00
0.00
7.50
44.10
3.90
28.40
14.90
1.60
1.60
1.50
19.60
0.30
33.80
19.90
3.20
8.00
12.20
17.60
18.10
4.40
3.40
27.90
28.70
8.40
4.60
17.30
6.50
66.80
10.00
7.20
43.00
23.00
0.10
25.50
8.00
7.50
65.60
3.90
4.40
16.30
1.80
7.50
6.90
15.10
3.20
14.70
6.60
7.20
38.20
7.80
2.10
31.10
10.10
9.60
69.50
25.10
23.40
53.00
0.40
4.80
16.00
0.60
1.20
11.20
4.00
10.80
10.60
5.40
0.00
18.80
16.70
3.20
28.00
10.70
6.80
17.90
0.70
0.40
736.50 274.50 180.40
27.278 10.167 6.681

ESTACION LLAGADEN CON DATOS FALTANTES


ABRIL
MAYO
JUNIO
JULIO
67.50
10.40
13.30
8.10
40.40
8.10
13.10
11.80
29.50
19.60
1.00
16.80
25.40
4.10
6.10
18.10
73.70
2.30
6.20
8.50
61.20
13.20
15.10
11.70
118.80
8.60
13.60
1.80
33.50
8.30
1.50
13.80

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

115.00
35.00
71.50
179.90
161.30
38.80
34.50
78.00
61.20
55.70
50.00
36.90
17.90
54.30
190.80
113.70
195.50
69.30
42.50
43.529
2104.50
77.944

107.70
126.70
110.50
16.40
202.20
55.80
94.50
5.60
257.50
79.40
75.70
107.90
73.00
50.60
76.30
112.50
189.20
104.90
55.10
92.919
2654.50
98.315

132.20
45.40
144.00
71.20
72.30
51.10
275.60
71.00
112.30
25.50
125.00
101.40
51.40
26.60
23.00
22.30
57.60
79.80
103.30
116.180
2584.20
95.711

110.30
40.80
14.50
52.00
62.30
14.40
13.70
23.40
22.50
71.70
77.80
62.90
44.90
187.80
35.60
74.70
80.90
52.60
52.70
51.281
1545.50
57.241

19.20
11.70
6.60
7.60
12.10
15.10
5.30
9.70
12.30
7.00
45.50
13.00
6.80
10.60
3.10
12.20
11.20
6.80
18.50
10.80
15.00
11.30
13.30
9.80
31.00
9.10
7.70
13.00
7.90
5.70
4.80
4.40
7.30
13.90
18.50
4.40
18.10
6.70
8.234
0.644
338.80 252.70
12.548 9.359

10.10
3.10
4.40
11.80
14.30
13.70
7.40
3.80
3.80
13.10
13.80
5.40
8.10
11.40
14.10
18.00
9.30
8.10
13.50
0.616
277.80
10.289

1. ANALISIS VISUAL GRAFICO


AO
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

PRECIPIT.
42.125
30.467
56.550
26.192
46.142
35.242
50.700
42.750
58.375
31.542
44.633
35.550
54.867
27.725
41.375
33.258
51.233

Hidrograma de la Estacin Metereolgica

HIDROGRAMA ESTA
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000

PRECIPITACION (mm)
30.000
20.000
10.000
0.000
1964

1969

1974

20.000

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

10.000

39.933
43.867
42.008
28.600
42.775
36.992
41.292
53.867
38.675
34.392
34.063

0.000
1964

1969

1974

2. ANALISIS DE DOBLE MASA.


AOS
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

EST. WEBERBAWER

EST. LLAGADEN.

PRECIP.

PREC. ACUM.

PRECIP.

PREC. ACUM.

64.808
50.492
35.708
55.367
42.417
56.225
44.450
64.317
36.467
56.125
55.325
76.933
46.733
57.867
29.900
44.558
46.158
61.342
59.767
63.075
75.483
31.175
45.367
44.617
50.242
58.267
53.608
42.283

64.808
115.300
151.008
206.375
248.792
305.017
349.467
413.783
450.250
506.375
561.700
638.633
685.367
743.233
773.133
817.692
863.850
925.192
984.958
1048.033
1123.517
1154.692
1200.058
1244.675
1294.917
1353.183
1406.792
1449.075

42.125
30.467
56.550
26.192
46.142
35.242
50.700
42.750
58.375
31.542
44.633
35.550
54.867
27.725
41.375
33.258
51.233
39.933
43.867
42.008
28.600
42.775
36.992
41.292
53.867
38.675
34.392
34.063

42.125
72.592
129.142
155.333
201.475
236.717
287.417
330.167
388.542
420.083
464.717
500.267
555.133
582.858
624.233
657.492
708.725
748.658
792.525
834.533
863.133
905.908
942.900
984.192
1038.058
1076.733
1111.125
1145.188

ESTACION BASE = Estacin W


ESTACION EN ESTUDIO = Esta

ACUMULADO DE LA ESTACION EN ESTU

ACU

I. ANALISIS ESTADISTICO.
I.1. ANALISIS DE SALTOS.
ANALISIS DEL TRAMO 1 Y 2
TRAMO
AO
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975

1
DATO
42.125
30.467
56.550
26.192
46.142
35.242
50.700
42.750
58.375
31.542
44.633
35.550

TRAMO 2
AO
DATO
1976
54.867
1977
27.725
1978
41.375
1979
33.258
1980
51.233
1981
39.933
1982
43.867
1983
42.008
1984
28.600
n1= 12
n2= 9

1. Consistencia de la Media
a) Clculo de la media y de la desviacin estndar para las submuestras:

TRAMO 1
41.689
10.263
TRAMO 2
40.319
9.30899
b) Clculo del (tc) calculado segn:

Sp= 9.87253
4.35338
Luego:

Donde:

Tc= 0.31478
c) Clculo del t tabular Tt:
G.L.= n1 + n2 - 2 = 19

Con una probabilidad al 95%, con un nivel de significacin del 5%.


/2= 0.025
Se obtiene de la tabla t de Student:
Tt= 2.093
d) Comparacin del Tc con el Tt:

Como podemos ver que:


Tc= 0.31478

2. Consistencia de la Desviacin Estndar


a) Clculo de las varianzas de ambos perodos

105.328

86.657
b) Clculo del F calculado (Fc), segn:

<

Tt=

Fc= 1.215
c) Clculo del F tabular:

V1=

G.L.N.= 11

V2=

G.L.D.= 8

Para 1- = 0.95 (95%)

Ft= 3.313
d) Comprobacin de Fc y Ft:

Como vemos:

Ft=
Las submuestras de las series de tiempo, resultan estadsticamente
por lo tanto la informacin original NO se corrige, por ser consistent
Fc= 1.215

I.2. ANALISIS DE TENDENCIA.


1.Tendencia en la Media
a) Clculo de los parmetros de la ecuacin de simple regresin lineal.

AO

ti

Tmi

t * Tmi

1964
1965

1.00
2.00

42.125
30.467

42.13
60.93

1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
24.00
25.00
26.00
27.00
28.00
= 14.50
Desv. Estandar= 8.23
n= 28
40.900
14.50
586.09
8.910
8.23
-0.0949
-0.1028
42.3899

56.550 169.65
26.192 104.77
46.142 230.71
35.242 211.45
50.700 354.90
42.750 342.00
58.375 525.38
31.542 315.42
44.633 490.97
35.550 426.60
54.867 713.27
27.725 388.15
41.375 620.63
33.258 532.13
51.233 870.97
39.933 718.80
43.867 833.47
42.008 840.17
28.600 600.60
42.775 941.05
36.992 850.81
41.292 991.00
53.867 1346.67
38.675 1005.55
34.392 928.58
34.063 953.77
40.900 586.09
8.910

REEMPLAZANDO DATOS TENEMOS:


Tm= 42.39 - 0.103*t
Donde:
b) Evaluacin de la tendencia Tm:
1. Clculo estadstico de t segn:

Donde:
tc= valor del estadstico t calculado.
n = nmero total de datos
R = coeficiente de correlacin
Tc= -0.4861
2. Clculo de Tt tabular en la tabla T-Student:

G.L.= 26
De la tabla obtenemos:

Tt= 2.0555

3. Comprobacin del Tc con el Tt:

Como vemos:
|Tc|= 0.48605

<

Tt=

b) Tendencia en la desviacin estandar:

La tendencia en la desviacin estndar, generalmente se presenta


en los datos semanales o mensuales, no as en datos anuales.
Por lo tanto esta parte del anlisis NO se realiza.

DE CONSISTENCIA

ON WEBERBAUER
AGOSTO
23.80
28.00
0.70
5.80
16.20
7.80
2.50
17.20
20.60
19.30
26.40
19.30
4.40
0.10
3.80
15.70
6.70
12.70
6.60
2.70
18.70
18.30
14.60
12.30
0.40
5.90
10.30
0.30
320.80
11.881

SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE PROMEDIO


12.60
52.60
58.80
115.20
64.808
13.40
98.00
40.70
34.40
50.492
13.10
76.80
62.70
18.70
35.708
24.90
101.00
17.80
36.70
55.367
50.00
66.40
54.60
70.80
42.417
18.40
73.80
106.40
162.00
56.225
18.20
103.00
51.50
54.10
44.450
28.10
89.80
45.80
66.50
64.317
31.90
31.40
66.50
50.20
36.467
87.20
5.50
68.20
72.30
56.125
39.70
71.00
55.10
84.60
55.325
45.10
80.20
65.10
0.90
76.933
12.30
32.20
71.60
44.40
46.733
16.10
53.40
54.80
68.20
57.867
25.00
24.40
54.00
44.80
29.900
33.60
24.40
26.30
46.60
44.558
2.30
130.40
111.00
106.70
46.158
22.00
111.90
45.60
111.30
61.342
43.90
124.80
67.30
87.40
59.767
19.20
86.90
28.10
118.40
63.075
36.70
68.60
97.60
104.10
75.483
37.30
50.00
23.90
40.30
31.175
1.30
43.60
66.20
51.80
45.367
39.50
37.20
74.30
61.50
44.617
32.90
69.40
65.20
63.40
50.242
53.50
106.60
47.10
2.70
58.267
28.70
73.30
61.20
64.20
53.608
10.20
28.20
55.10
71.90
42.283
786.90
1886.60
1587.40
1782.20
29.144
69.874
58.793
66.007

N DATOS FALTANTES Y SIN CORREGIR


AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE PROMEDIO
3.30
11.20
28.50
26.70
56.20
42.125
14.40
9.20
36.10
24.40
11.50
30.467
13.80
0.70
56.40
27.80
20.60
56.550
4.40
20.00
33.30
33.00
23.70
26.192
1.00
24.00
33.70
65.30
67.80
46.142
0.90
7.70
65.00
34.20
17.20
35.242
19.20
10.00
46.50
9.00
40.50
50.700
1.50
19.20
15.20
30.60
64.30
42.750

0.80
11.70
20.40
13.50
2.20
14.20
5.40
7.70
0.60
5.10
7.20
6.70
11.20
6.80
9.70
12.70
5.10
8.00
3.80
0.198
211.30
7.826

51.90
22.50
40.00
2.10
17.90
2.20
9.70
20.00
4.70
28.10
23.80
37.90
10.20
16.30
11.30
26.90
26.50
28.80
11.20
6.403
494.00
18.296

45.00
21.40
76.50
8.60
7.10
42.40
17.40
77.10
39.80
42.50
0.00
53.50
10.10
2.10
7.60
27.40
38.00
34.00
33.10
13.427
898.30
33.270

26.40
25.50
12.60
14.60
14.60
1.00
18.70
44.70
20.00
35.30
0.00
48.80
19.70
35.80
37.70
62.30
18.00
35.70
27.80
26.040
750.20
27.785

70.20
32.20
14.00
41.50
84.90
40.60
2.20
52.50
74.40
93.50
126.80
19.60
56.60
100.90
24.20
15.80
5.10
20.00
44.90
49.288
1221.70
45.248

58.375
31.542
44.633
35.550
54.867
27.725
41.375
33.258
51.233
39.933
43.867
42.008
28.600
42.775
36.992
41.292
53.867
38.675
34.392
34.063

n Metereolgica LLagaden con datos sin corregir

ROGRAMA ESTACION LLAGADEN

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

AOS

N BASE = Estacin WEBERBAWER


N EN ESTUDIO = Estacin LLAGADEN
1600.000

E LA ESTACION EN ESTUDIO

1400.000
1200.000

Tramo 2

1000.000
800.000

Tramo 1

600.000
400.000
200.000

-300.000

0.000

200.000

ACUMULADO DE LA ESTACION BASE

700.000

1200.000

muestras:

2.093 -------------->> NO SE NECESITA CORRECCIN

3.313

estadsticamente iguales,
por ser consistente con 95% de probabilidad.

(Tmi-T)^2

(Ti-T)^2

1.502
108.846

182.250
156.250

244.936
216.323
27.479
32.012
96.048
3.424
305.390
87.571
13.941
28.618
195.079
173.570
0.226
58.389
106.786
0.934
8.804
1.229
151.280
3.517
15.272
0.154
168.145
4.949
42.353
46.734
76.554

132.250
110.250
90.250
72.250
56.250
42.250
30.250
20.250
12.250
6.250
2.250
0.250
0.250
2.250
6.250
12.250
20.250
30.250
42.250
56.250
72.250
90.250
110.250
132.250
156.250
182.250
65.250

2.0555

-------------->> NO HAY QUE CORREGIR.

ESTACION LLAG
AO

ENERO
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

FEBRERO
43
33.9
185
52.6
13.1
73
48.7
53.4
115
35
71.5
179.9
161.3
38.8
34.5
78
61.2
55.7
50
36.9
17.9
54.3
190.8
113.7
195.5
69.3
42.5

55
87.2
223.1
56.1
146.4
31.5
57.2
96.5
107.7
126.7
110.5
16.4
202.2
55.8
94.5
5.6
257.5
79.4
75.7
107.9
73
50.6
76.3
112.5
189.2
104.9
55.1

MARZO
ABRIL
MAYO
182.3
67.5
75.5
40.4
84.3
29.5
37.5
25.4
111.7
73.7
92.2
61.2
234.5
118.8
175.2
33.5
132.2
110.3
45.4
40.8
144
14.5
71.2
52
72.3
62.3
51.1
14.4
275.6
13.7
71
23.4
112.3
22.5
25.5
71.7
125
77.8
101.4
62.9
51.4
44.9
26.6
187.8
23
35.6
22.3
74.7
57.6
80.9
79.8
52.6
103.3
52.7

10.4
8.1
19.6
4.1
2.3
13.2
8.6
8.3
19.2
6.6
12.1
5.3
12.3
45.5
6.8
3.1
11.2
18.5
15
13.3
31
7.7
7.9
4.8
7.3
18.5
18.1

ESTACION LLAGADEN
JUNIO
JULIO
AGOSTO
SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE
13.3
8.1
3.3
11.2
28.5
26.7
13.1
11.8
14.4
9.2
36.1
24.4
1
16.8
13.8
0.7
56.4
27.8
6.1
18.1
4.4
20
33.3
33
6.2
8.5
1
24
33.7
65.3
15.1
11.7
0.9
7.7
65
34.2
13.6
1.8
19.2
10
46.5
9
1.5
13.8
1.5
19.2
15.2
30.6
11.7
10.1
0.8
51.9
45
26.4
7.6
3.1
11.7
22.5
21.4
25.5
15.1
4.4
20.4
40
76.5
12.6
9.7
11.8
13.5
2.1
8.6
14.6
7
14.3
2.2
17.9
7.1
14.6
13
13.7
14.2
2.2
42.4
1
10.6
7.4
5.4
9.7
17.4
18.7
12.2
3.8
7.7
20
77.1
44.7
6.8
3.8
0.6
4.7
39.8
20
10.8
13.1
5.1
28.1
42.5
35.3
11.3
13.8
7.2
23.8
0
0
9.8
5.4
6.7
37.9
53.5
48.8
9.1
8.1
11.2
10.2
10.1
19.7
13
11.4
6.8
16.3
2.1
35.8
5.7
14.1
9.7
11.3
7.6
37.7
4.4
18
12.7
26.9
27.4
62.3
13.9
9.3
5.1
26.5
38
18
4.4
8.1
8
28.8
34
35.7
6.7
13.5
3.8
11.2
33.1
27.8

DICIEMBRE PROMEDIO(mm)
56.2
42.125
11.5
30.467
20.6
56.550
23.7
26.192
67.8
46.142
17.2
35.242
40.5
50.700
64.3
42.750
70.2
58.375
32.2
31.542
14
44.633
41.5
35.550
84.9
54.867
40.6
27.725
2.2
41.375
52.5
33.258
74.4
51.233
93.5
39.933
126.8
43.867
19.6
42.008
56.6
28.600
100.9
42.775
24.2
36.992
15.8
41.292
5.1
53.867
20
38.675
44.9
34.392