SUB Hamburg

A/570761

Cases in
Intelligence Analysis
Structured Analytic Techniques in Action

Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson

SAGE | CQPRESS
Los Angeles | London | New Delhi
Singapore I Washington DC

Brief Contents

Annotated Contents
xi
Tables, Figures, and Boxes
xvii
Matrix of Techniques
xx
Foreword
xxiii
BY ROBERT JERVIS, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY

Preface
xxix
About the Authors

Introduction
1

xxxiii

W H O POISONED KARINNA MOSKALENKO?

Case Narrative
7
Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko? Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action
16
2

Is W E N H O LEE A SPY?

21

Case Narrative
21
Is Wen Ho Lee a Spy? Structured Analytic Techniques in Action
3

T H E ROAD TO T A R I N KOWT

33

43

Case Narrative
43
The Road to Tarin Kowt: Structured Analytic Techniques in
Action
55

Vll

viii Brief Contents

W H O M U R D E R E D JONATHAN LUNA?

61

Case Narrative
61
Who Murdered Jonathan Luna? Structured Analytic Techniques in
Action
71
5

T H E A S S A S S I N A T I O N OF B E N A Z I R B H U T T O

79

Case Narrative
79
The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action
93
6

D E A T H IN THE SOUTHWEST

101

Case Narrative
101
Death in the Southwest: Structured Analytic Techniques
in Action
108
7

T H E ATLANTA OLYMPICS BOMBING

119

Case Narrative
119
The Atlanta Olympics Bombing: Structured Analytic Techniques
in Action
129
8

T H E DC SNIPER

137

Case Narrative
137
The DC Sniper: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action
9

COLOMBIA'S

FARC ATTACKS

THE

US

HOMELAND

148
155

Case Narrative
155
Colombia's FARC Attacks the US Homeland: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action
166
10

D E F E N D I N G M U M B A I FROM T E R R O R I S T A T T A C K

Case Narrative
179
Defending Mumbai from Terrorist Attack: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action
189
11

S H A D E S OF O R A N G E I N U K R A I N E

203

Case Narrative
203
Shades of Orange in Ukraine: Structured Analytic Techniques
in Action
216

179

Brief Contents ix

12

VIOLENCE E R U P T S IN BELGRADE

223

Case Narrative
223
Violence Erupts in Belgrade: Structured Analytic Techniques
in Action
235
Image Credits

243

Annotated Contents

Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Matrix of Techniques
Foreword

xvii
xx

xxiii

BY ROBERT JERVIS, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY

Preface

xxix

About the Authors

Introduction

xxxiii

W H O POISONED KARINNA MOSKALENKO?

The poisoning of prominent Russian human rights lawyer Karinna

Moskalenko captured worldwide media attention in the fall of 2008. It
was regarded as yet another entry in a growing list of poisonings and
assassinations allegedly carried out by Russia's government against its
critics at home and abroad. This case employs the Premortem Analysis, Structured Self-Critique, and Starbursting techniques to help
analysts examine the facts of this fast-moving story and develop a
robust set of questions to guide a nuanced analysis of the case.
Case Narrative

Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko? Structured Analytic

Techniques in Action
16
Is W E N H O LEE A SPY?

21

In 1999, the New York Times reported that China had used stolen US
nuclear secrets to make rapid advances in its nuclear warhead development. Given the small community of US scientists with access to such
data, investigators quickly focused their case on Taiwanese-American
nuclear scientist Wen Ho Lee. Had Wen Ho Lee engaged in undetected
XI

xii Annotated Contents

nefarious activities for decades, or did the government narrow its gaze
too quickly? Analysts use the Force Field Analysis, Deception Detection, Premortem Analysis, and Structured Self-Critique techniques
to evaluate both sides of the case, test for deception, and troubleshoot
the government's position that Wen Ho Lee was a spy.

Case Narrative

21

Is Wen Ho Lee a Spy? Structured Analytic Techniques in

Action
33
THE ROAD TO TARIN KOWT

43

The US military in 2005 faced a pivotal decision about building a

paved road through a Taliban stronghold to Tarin Kowt, a provincial capital in Afghanistan. The United States and other international
donors saw the road as a critical element in efforts to stabilize, modernize, and democratize Afghanistan. With Afghanistan's first parliamentary elections since the overthrow of the Taliban on the horizon,
the US Army considered embarking on a highly accelerated schedule
to complete the road in time for the election. This case uses the Key
Assumptions Check, Devil's Advocacy, and Strengths-WeaknessesOpportunities-Threats techniques to structure a thorough assessment of the operating environment, the probable enemy response, and
the potential impact on broader US goals for Afghanistan.

Case Narrative

43

The Road to Tarin Kowt: Structured Analytic Techniques

in Action
55
W H O MURDERED JONATHAN LUNA?

61

Jonathan Luna was a youthful and gregarious federal prosecutor

whose mysterious death in December 2003 shocked his friends and
colleagues and led to a multiyear, multistate investigation into how
and why Jonathan Luna died. With multiple theories swirling amid a
plethora of ambiguous and sometimes contradictory evidence, analysts
use Chronologies and Timelines, Simple Hypotheses, the Multiple
Hypotheses Generator, and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses to
track and assess events, develop a range ofplausible explanations, and
rigorously evaluate evidence in this perplexing case.

Case Narrative

61

Who Murdered Jonathan Luna? Structured Analytic

Techniques in Action
71

Annotated Contents xiii

THE ASSASSINATION OF BENAZIR BHUTTO

79

The assassination of Benazir BhuttoPakistan'sfirstfemale prime

ministerduring a political rally to support her presidential candidacy in 2007 sent shock waves through the international community
and generated a wave of accusations and counteraccusations about
who was responsible. Despite a lengthy investigation, questions remain
about who was behind the assassination. The case employs Chronologies and Timelines to help analysts assemble the evidence and
identify information gaps, a Mind Map to help them think creatively
about possible perpetrators, and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
to assist in their evaluation of a range ofpossible explanations.

Case Narrative

79

The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto: Structured Analytic

Techniques in Action
93
D E A T H IN THE S O U T H W E S T

101

In the spring of 1993, residents of the Four Corners area of the US

Southwest started dying rapidly and unexpectedly. Doctors at first
suspected virulent flu, but they were flummoxed by inconclusive test
results and the high mortality rate of their patients. With little solid
data available, they faced a daunting and urgent diagnostic challenge. This case uses Structured Brainstorming to help analysts
think creatively and exhaustively about the possible causes, Starbursting to organize that thinking around key questions, the Multiple Hypotheses Generator to create a full range of alternative
hypotheses, and a Key Assumptions Check and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses to scrutinize the evidence and narrow the range
of most likely explanations.

Case Narrative
101
Death in the Southwest: Structured Analytic Techniques
in Action

108

THE ATLANTA OLYMPICS BOMBING

119

After a bomb ripped through the crowd at the 1996 Olympics Centennial Park, killing 1 person and injuring HI, authorities began a
furious search for those responsible for the attack. An erstwhile security guard who had previously warned authorities about the suspicious package quickly emerged as the chief suspect in the case. A Key
Assumptions Check helps analysts evaluate the course of action taken
by the authorities as they began the case, Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

xiv Annotated Contents

provides analysts with a framework to assess the evidence for and

against the main suspect, and the Multiple Hypotheses Generator
assists in identifying other plausible perpetrators of the crime.
Case Narrative

119

The Atlanta Olympics Bombing: Structured Analytic

Techniques in Action
129
8

THE DC SNIPER

137

In 2002, only a year after the 9/11 attacks, Washington, D. C, was again
gripped with fear as men, women, and children were gunned down by
sniperfireacross the greater metropolitan area. As authorities raced to
find the culprit, they were inundated with myriad eyewitness reports,
call-in tips, and other data, but assessing this information proved
difficult. This case uses a Key Assumptions Check to help analysts
uncover and challenge implicit assumptions that can color evaluation
of the available evidence, and it employs the Multiple Hypotheses
Generator and Quadrant Crunching to help systematically develop
and assess a range of possible explanations.
Case Narrative .

137

The DC Sniper: Structured Analytic Techniques in

Action
148

COLOMBIA'S
HOMELAND

FARC ATTACKS THE US

155

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) is Latin America's largest, oldest, and most capable insurgent group. Its history of
kidnappings, assassinations, and indiscriminate acts of violence makes
it one of the most despised groups in Colombia, but it has never conducted operations in the United States. This case helps analysts to
assess the possibility of such an attack against the homeland using
Red Hat Analysis, Structured Brainstorming, Multiple Scenarios
Generation, Indicators, and the Indicators Validator to prompt creative thinking about the range of possible FARC attack scenarios and
to identify specific signs that would tip off local officials of an impending attack.
Case Narrative

155

Colombia's FARC Attacks the US Homeland: Structured

Analytic Techniques in Action
166

Annotated Contents XV

10

DEFENDING MUMBAI FROM TERRORIST

ATTACK

179

In 2008 the United States quietly passed intelligence to the Indian government warning of Pakistani-based terrorist plans to attack hotels
and business centers in Mumbai. It fell to Indian intelligence and law
enforcement officials to identify the most likely timing, targets, and
modes of attack. Structured Brainstorming, Red Hat Analysis,
Quadrant Crunching, Indicators, and the Indicators Validator
help analysts evaluate most likely modes of transport, anticipate likely
targets and credible attack scenarios, and recognize the signs that a
particular scenario is beginning to take shape.

Case Narrative
179
Defending Mumbai from Terrorist Attack: Structured
Analytic Techniques in Action
189
11

S H A D E S OF O R A N G E I N U K R A I N E

203

As Ukraine's long winter melted into spring in 2004, Ukrainian politics heated up with the announcement ofpresidential elections for the
fall. The US relationship with the ruling party in Kiev was arguably at
the lowest point since Ukraine's independence in 1991, and the election
outcome could have serious consequences for US policy in the region.
Would Ukraine's pro-US opposition have a chance of success against
the combined efforts of Ukraine's wealthiest and most powerful political forces? Structured Brainstorming, Outside-In Thinking, and
Simple Scenarios help analysts to identify the key factors at play and
explain how their dynamics could result in a range ofpossible futures.

Case Narrative
203
Shades of Orange in Ukraine: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action
12

216

VIOLENCE ERUPTS IN BELGRADE

223

A mob of angry protesters attacked the US embassy compound in

Belgrade in February 2008, causing limited damage to the building
facade. Violence in the Serbian capital, coupled with sporadic eruptions in neighboring Kosovo, forced US officials to make difficult
assessments about the prospective threat to US interests in the region
and how the United States should respond. Did these attacks presage
greater violence against Americans, and should US officials count on
Serbian authorities to protect the US diplomatic presence? Force Field

xvi Annotated Contents

Analyst's, a Decision Matrix, and Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

provide a robust framework for conducting a thorough assessment to
support decision making in a crisis environment.
Case Narrative

223

Violence Erupts in Belgrade: Structured Analytic

Techniques in Action
235
Image Credits

243