Daily Markets Update

19 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Sovereign debt nightmare in Europe remains predominant amid the ongoing efforts by officials
Today is a tranquil day in Europe were few fundamentals will be released from the euro zone and U.K. First on our daily calendar is BoE
minutes followed by construction output from the euro area.
Currently, debt woes in Europe and cutting the deficit is the focal point of governments after economies had shown remarkable improvement
recently as a result of the incentive packages introduced last year.
In the U.K., after the selection of the new coalition government led by David Cameron the work started directly with no waste of time as we saw
on Monday the new British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, set out a schedule for U.K. government departments to detect the
available savings in order to reduce the high debt in the country that reached 12% of GDP last year.
Osborne will hold an emergency budget on June 22 and introduced a new oversight body or a "fiscal watchdog" to be responsible for providing
evaluation and publishing fiscal projections not less than twice a year to provide the government with recommendations on how to implement
prudent fiscal policies and slash the massive deficit.
The British Chancellor does not want the Greek dilemma to occur in the U.K., thus, he is racing with time to cut the deficit. However, cutting the
large fiscal debt combined with boosting recovery is not an easy task to accomplish.
The BoE left both interest rate and APF quantity unchanged in May to spur growth as the economy began to show progress starting from the
last quarter of the previous year. Today, the bank will release minutes for May's rate decision to show how the vote came between members.
Over the past few months there has been consensus from MPC members over keeping the rate low and pausing the APF at 200 billion pounds
to enhance recovery and rein in the skyrocketing inflation that reached 3.7% in April, exceeding the bank's target by more than one percent.
Therefore, with emerging signs of recovery, high inflation and large deficit, it seems that both borrowing cost and APF will be held steady till at
least the end of the current year. BoE expects rates to average 1.7% by the end of the coming year and to linger near their lows this year.
Moving to the euro zone, the debt woes are still arising despite the $1 trillion bailout package unveiled by the EU and IMF last week to salvage
the euro, which fell to the lowest level in more than four years against the federal currency this week, from falling further.
Yesterday, Greece received 14.5 billion euros as a first installment of the 110 billion euros EU and IMF bailout package after receiving 5.5
billion euros from the IMF last week to cover 8.5 billion euros debt due in May in addition to other financing needed in June.
European officials, meanwhile, are coordinating their policies to prevent the debt contagion from spreading among the region's economies and
to support the euro as well as to maintain financial and economic stability in the euro area.
European finance ministers during their meeting in Brussels on Monday decided that the austerity measures will not be for all the euro zone
members but only for highly indebted nations such as Portugal and Spain which will be obligated to set further plans to narrow their deficit as
cutting spending sharply in European countries will adversely affect recovery that is still vulnerable. The euro area will expand 0.9% in 2010
instead of 0.7%, before growing 1.5% in 2011, according to the European Commission's latest estimates.
Risk Aversion Drives Dollar and Yen Higher, Aussie Hardest Hit
Risk aversion continues to drive dollar and yen higher today. DOW was down -1.08% overnight after German Bafin announced to ban naked
short-selling of Eurozone government bonds, CDS and shares of a group of 10 leading German financial stocks. Asian equities are broadly
lower but received some support as China stocks are in a technical recovery. Though, Nikkei is still down -0.54%. Crude oil is under
tremendous pressure and breached 68 level to 67.9 so far and remains weak. Dollar index managed to break through 87.01 level to recent
medium term up trend.
Among the major currencies, Australian dollar is hardest hit this week. Recent communications from RBA, including yesterday's minutes,
confirmed expectation that the bank will pause the tightening cycle in June. However, recent development of European debt crisis and the
impact on global financial markets are now triggering speculation that the pause would be longer than originally thought, probably no more
hike this year. Some traders are even betting on a slim change of rate cut in the next move. Data from Australia saw Westpac consumer
confidence dropped sharply by -7.0% in May.
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 1.2191
Position Strategy: SHORT at 1.2230 with stop 1.2365 target 1.2231 first 1.1928 next
Enter LONG if we break 1.2443 with a stop 1.2360 target 1.3093
EUR/USD's recovery was brief and recent down trend resumed by taking out 1.2233 and reaches as low as 1.2143 so far. Intraday bias is back
to the downside and further decline should be seen first to 261.8% projection of 1.5144 to 1.4216 from 1.4557 at 1.2123 or to the 100%
projection of 1.3691 to 1.2526 from 1.3093 at 1.1928 next. On the upside, however, note that break of 1.2443 resistance will argue that a short
term bottom is formed, possibly with divergence condition in RSI & Stochastic oscillators. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen
towards 1.3093 resistance instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are treated as correction to long term up trend from
0.8823 and fall form 1.5144 is the third leg of such correction. Further decline should be seen to 1.1639 key support level and possibly further
to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5144 at 1.1433. On the upside, break of 1.3266 resistance is needed to be the first signal of
bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of
1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to
1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209
key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 1.1480
Position Strategy: Current position : LONG at 1.1448 with a stop 1.1267 target 1.1673
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1.1267 with stop 1.1445 target 1.0920
USD/CHF"s retreat from 1.1445 was relatively brief and recent rally resumed by rising to as high as 1.1532 so far. We'll stay short term bullish
as long as 1.1267 minor support holds and expect the current rise to target 161.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1673 next.
On the downside, though, below 1.1267 will indicate that a short term top is formed, possibly with divergence condition in 4 hours RSI &
Stochastic Oscillators, and bring lengthier consolidations.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, sustained trading above the medium term falling trend line, light brown line
on the chart, affirms our view that whole correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916. Rise from 0.9916 is
tentatively treated as resumption of the whole rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 and should now target a retest on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone.
On the downside, break of 1.0434 support is needed to indicate that such rise from 0.9916 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.
In the bigger picture, In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish divergence condition in
monthly RSI & Stochastic. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634. Such development will favor the case that long term down
trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 1.4005
Position Strategy:
Current position : FLAT
Enter LONG if we break 1.4116 with a stop 1.4003 target 1.4333
No real change from the weekly comment: The EUR/CHF's rebound was limited at 1.4333 and dropped sharply since then. Nevertheless, the
cross lost momentum again as it revisited 1.4 psychological support. Initial bias remains neutral and some more sideway trading might be
seen. Though, decisive break of 1.4 psychological level will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from
1.5138 at 1.3869 next. On the upside, above 1.4116 minor resistance will suggest that another rising leg of the consolidation from 1.4003 has
started and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.4333 resistance. In a case of a rebound from the current level we got a risk of a
double bottom pattern with a likely divergence on RSI and on break of 1.4333 will target 1.4465 key points for 1.4642 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, whole long term down trend from 2007 high of 1.6827 is still in progress and
further fall should be seen to next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside,
break of 1.4465 resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 1.4312
Position Strategy: Current position: SHORT at 1.4249 with stop at 1.4475 target 1.3848 next
Enter LONG if we break 1.4517 with a stop 1.4251 target near 1.5053
GBP/USD's break of 1.4251 suggests that recent fall from 1.5521 has resumed. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further fall should be
seen to 100% projection of 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5521 at 1.3848 next. On the upside, however, break of 1.4517 resistance will indicate that
a short term bottom is formed and stronger rebound should then be seen towards 1.5053 resistance instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, as noted before, corrective rise from 1.3503 should have completed at 1.7043
already and fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target
61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at 1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5221 resistance is needed to
be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature
of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed
and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 0.8541
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT: have taken profit from SHORT position from 0.8704 at 08577
Enter LONG on a break of 0.8685 with a stop 0.8577 target 0.8780
AUD/USD's fall extends further to as low as 0.8520 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to
100% projection of 0.9324 to 0.8715 from 0.9077 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8685 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral
and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 0.9077 and bring fall resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the break of mentioned 0.8577 key support (23.6% retracement of 0.6008 to
0.9404 at 0.8603) confirms our view that medium term up trend from 2006 low of 0.6008 has reversed already. Deeper decline should now be
seen towards 0.7702/8262 support zone next. On the upside, break of 0.9077 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 0.9380 is finished.
Otherwise, The outlook will remain Bearish
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 91.49
Position Strategy: Current position: SHORT at 92.19 with stop 92.96 target near 90.86
Enter LONG on a break of 92.96 at 92.22 target near 93.62
The break of 91.75 support suggests that choppy fall from 93.62 has resumed and intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 90.86
support and below. On the upside, above 92.96 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 93.62 and above. But after all,
we'd expect strong resistance from there to limit upside and bring another short term fall.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the exaggerated volatility last week mixed up the overall outlook in USD/JPY
and we'd stay neutral first. On the downside, break of 88.13 support will indicate that rise from 84.81 has completed at 94.97 already. The
three waves corrective structure will in turn indicate that down trend from 124.13 is not completed yet and would bring another fall to 84.81
and below. On the upside, though, break of 94.97 will reaffirm the case that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65
medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.
In the long term picture, we will stay neutral first even if the downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in
weekly oscillators; the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone
and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place
and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 111.29
Position Strategy: Current position: SHORT at 112.42 with stop at 115.47 target 110.69 first for 103.45 next
Enter LONG on a clear break of 115.47 stop at 112.45 target 122.27
EUR/JPY's fall resumed after brief recovery and reaches as low as 111.28 so far. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further decline
should be seen to retest 110.69 low first. Break will confirm that whole fall from 127.88 has resumed and should target next key level at 61.8%
projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45. On the upside, however, break of 115.47 will argue that a short term bottom is formed
and bring stronger rebound towards 122.27 resistance instead
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the break of 112.10 support indicates that whole long term down trend from
2008 high of 169.96 has resumed. Outlook will now remain bearish as long as 127.88 resistance holds and further fall should be seen to 61.8%
projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 which is close to 100 psychological level. However, note that we're slightly favoring the
case that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll start to watch out for reversal signal between 2000 low of 88.96 and 100
psychological level.
In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (2000 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave
structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. It should develop into a three wave
correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. The third falling leg is now in progress but would be
contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 130.34
Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 131.06 with stop at 134.78 target 130.00 first for 118.81next
Enter LONG on a break of 134.78 with stop 131.10 target near 140.55
GBP/JPY's recovery from 131.09 was brief and fall from 140.55 resumed and drops to as low as 130.30 so far. Intraday bias is back to the
downside for 130 psychological support first and 129.73 low next. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole fall from 145.94 and
should target 118.81 key medium term low next. On the upside, however, break of 134.78 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is
formed and would bring stronger rebound towards 140.55 resistance instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, last week's development revives that case that recovery from 118.81, which
is treated as correction in the larger down trend from 2007 high of 251.09, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is tentatively
treated as resumption of such long term down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which
is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain
bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated
as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of
the correction from 118.81.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 1.0458
Position Strategy: Current position : LONG at 1.0441 with stop 1.0311 target near 1.0734
Enter SHORT on a break of 1.0258 with stop 1.0311 target near 1.0109
USD/CAD's break of 1.0439 suggest that rebound from 1.0109 is still in progress and has resumed. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for
1.0734 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.0258 will indicate that recovery from 1.0109 is completed and will flip bias back to
the downside for 1.0109 and below.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9929 to 1.0734 was strong, it was limited below
mentioned 1.0779 resistance and thus, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Break of 0.9929 low will indicate that whole down
trend from 1.3063 has resumed and should target 0.9823 medium term support next. On the upside, note that break of 1.0779 will confirm
that fall from 1.3063 has completed and stronger rebound should be seen towards 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly,
the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are
developing into a long term sideway pattern. Hence even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support above 2007 low of 0.9056 to
contain down side. On the other hand, another strong medium term rise should be seen after fall from 1.3063 complete and such rise should
target a test on the upper side of the long term range near to 1.3063.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 1213.2
Position Strategy: Current position : LONG at 1228 with a stop at 1170 target near 1300 first for 1340.7 next
Enter SHORT on a break of 1156.2 with stop 1193 target 1044.5
No change in line with weekly commentary: Gold's up trend extended further last week and reached new record high of 1249.7 before
retreating mildly on profit taking. The initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first due to the double top
pattern on 4 hours chart with a potential on the down side near 1212 or 1201. However, downside is expected to be contained above 1170
support and bring rally resumption. A move above 1249.7 will target 1300 psychological level next. On the downside, break below 1156.2 will
turn outlook bearish for a test on 1044.5 support.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, our view that price actions from 1227.5 was a consolidation in the larger up
trend with first leg completed at 1044.5 and the rise from there represents the second leg and should conclude after being limited by 1227.5
and bring the third down leg towards 1044.5 is over and wrong. However, note that sustained trading above 1227.5 high have indicate that the
correction has indeed completed at 1044.5 already and long term up trend is resuming. In such case, Gold should target 100% projection of
931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7 next.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation
from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.
We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
CrudeOIL
The technical outlook for OIL Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 71.76
Current position : FLAT.

Enter LONG on a clear break of 80.81 stop at 76.55 target near 80.50
Enter SHORT on a break of 70.83 with stop 73.85 target 66.54
Oil recovery from 70.83 was brief and fall from 75.71, a top should be in place at this level. Intraday bias is turned neutral and stronger fall
might be seen towards 70.83 Support. Below 70.83 will target 38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 66.54 next. The upside should be limited
below 61.8% retracement of 87.12 to 70.83 at 80.81 and bring fall resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole
correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and
should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to
33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled
out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will
be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 1998 low
of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we still
prefer the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between
76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance zone and bring reversal for another low before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Wednesday, April the 19th, 2010, level 10401.1
Current position. Enter SHORT at 10621.5 with stop 10697 target 10120
Enter LONG on a break of 10914.15 stop at 10770 target near 11196
Yesterday the Dow fall again and as low as 10459.15. Following my weekly commentary, last week strong rebound failed to sustain above the
Fibonacci retracement at 10865 and pullback from this level. As expected following our current Elliott wave count, Friday's sharp selloff
argues that correction fall from 11196.65 high is resuming and 10916.15 was the end wave b of II. We are now in wave c of II and as noted
before, following this count another leg down is likely first to 10090/120 Fibonacci projection on a break of this level to test again the 9865.65
low. A break of this level may target 9504/90. On upside a break of 10916.15 will confirm that the correction is over and 9865.65 was the end
of wave II and we will target again 11196.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I of Cycle
wave I of this bull market. The downtrend from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold
the 10% correction, and following our count: we have ended wave I at 11196.65 and we are now in wave II. For remember Wave I is the start of
a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction that may be very profound.
TRACK Since April

RECORD 16th, 2010
Current Closed P&L Nb of
Currency Long/Short Open price Price Stop Target Open P&L pips Pips Total P&L pips trades
EUR/USD Short 1.223 1.2191 1.2365 1.2123/1.1968 39 1,276 1,315 10
CHF/USD Long 1.1448 1.148 1.1267 1.1673 32 396 428 8
EUR/CHF Flat 0 94 94 2
GBP/USD Short 1.4249 1.4312 1.4475 1.3848 -63 586 523 9
AUD/USD Flat 0 295 295 8
USD/JPY Short 92.19 91.49 93.62 90.86 70 93 163 6
EUR/JPY Short 112.42 111.29 115.47 110.69 113 632 745 7
GBP/JPY Short 131.06 130.34 134.78 130 72 201 273 8
USD/CAD Long 1.0441 1.0458 1.0311 1.0734 17 416 433 8
TOTAL 280 3,989 4,269 66
Current Open P&L Nb of
Markets Long/Short Open price Price Stop points Close P&L pts Total P&L pts trades
Gold Long 1228 1213.2 1170 1300 -14.80 -28.3 -43.10 3
Oil Flat 0.00 9.15 9.15 7
Dow Jones Short 10621.5 10401.1 10697 10120 220.40 787.6 1,008.00 3
Monthly
recap
Since April 16 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Total
EUR/USD 247 1029 1276
CHF/USD -34 430 396
EUR/CHF 94 94
GBP/USD -56 642 586
AUD/USD -145 440 295
USD/JPY 161 -68 93
EUR/JPY -31 663 632
GBP/JPY -97 298 201
USD/CAD 149 267 416
TOTAL 194 3795 3,989
Gold -11.3 -17 -28.30
Oil 1.71 7.44 9.15
Dow Jones 533.6 254 787.60
ECONOMIC CALANDAR
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence May -- -1.0%
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index May -- 116.1
01:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q1 0.8% 0.6%
01:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Y/Y Q1 2.9% 2.9%
01:00 AUD DEWR Skilled Vacancies M/M May -- 1.3%
01:45 USD Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker Speaks in -- --

Stanford California
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar F -- 0.3%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar F -- 30.7%
04:30 JPY Capacity Utilization M/M Mar F -- 0.0%
08:30 GBP BoE Meeting Minutes -- --
09:00 EUR Eurozone Construction Output s.a. M/M Mar -- -3.3%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a. Y/Y Mar -- -15.2%
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 14) -- 3.9%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Mar 0.4% -1.2%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Apr 0.1% 0.1%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Apr 2.4% 2.3%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Apr 0.1% 0.0%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Apr 1.0% 1.1%
12:30 USD CPI Core Index s.a. Apr -- 220.664
12:30 USD CPI n.s.a. Apr 218.194 217.631
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 14) -- 1949K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 14) -- -2814K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 14) -- 1396K
18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes -- --
23:50 JPY Housing Loans Y/Y Q1 -- 1.6%
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q1 P 1.4% 0.9%
23:50 JPY GDP Annualized Q1 P 5.5% 3.8%
23:50 JPY Nominal GDP Q/Q Q1 P 1.3% 0.1%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 P -3.0% -2.8%
Thursday, May 20, 2010
-- EUR Italian Current Account (EUR) Mar -- -4990
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation May -- 4.1%
01:30 AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (AUD) Apr -- 892M
01:30 AUD Average Weekly Wages Q/Q Feb 0.9% 2.0%
01:30 AUD Average Weekly Wages Y/Y Feb 5.4% 5.9%
02:00 NZD Finance Minister Bill English Delivers Budget -- --

Statement
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Apr 0.6% 0.7%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Apr 0.4% -1.5%
07:00 JPY Convenience Store Sales Y/Y Apr -- -4.9%
08:00 EUR Italian Industrial Orders s.a. M/M Mar 0.9% -0.4%
08:00 EUR Italian Industrial Orders n.s.a. Y/Y Mar 7.2% 5.6%
08:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales s.a. M/M Mar -- -2.6%
08:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales n.s.a. Y/Y Mar -- 4.2%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel M/M Apr -0.1% 0.2%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Apr 3.1% 4.0%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales inc Auto Fuel M/M Apr 0.2% 0.4%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Apr 1.8% 2.2%
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) May -- 53.4
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Apr -- 1.0%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 15) 440K 444K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (MAY 8) -- 4627K
13:00 USD RPX Composite 28 Day Index (MAR 31) -- 186.24
13:00 USD RPX Composite 28 Day Y/Y Mar -- -0.18%
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Apr 0.2% 1.4%
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed May 22.0 20.2
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence May A -16 -15
22:45 NZD Visitor Arrivals Apr -- 1.1%
22:45 NZD New Zealand Net Migration s.a. Apr -- 980
Friday, May 21, 2010
-- JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision -- 0.10%
03:00 NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. M/M Apr -- 1.2%
03:00 NZD Credit Card Spending Y/Y Apr -- 6.3%
03:00 NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence M/M May -- 0.0%
03:00 NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index May -- 121.9
05:00 JPY Leading Index Mar F -- 102.8
05:00 JPY Coincident Index Mar F -- 101.1
06:00 EUR German GDP s.a. Q/Q Q1 F 0.2% 0.0%
06:00 EUR German GDP w.d.a. Y/Y Q1 F 1.6% -2.4%
06:00 EUR German GDP n.s.a. Y/Y Q1 F 1.7% -1.7%
06:00 EUR German Private Consumption Q1 F -0.4% -1.0%
06:00 EUR German Construction Investment Q1 -3.0% -0.5%
06:00 EUR German Capital Investment Q1 F 0.6% -0.7%
06:00 EUR German Government Spending Q1 F 0.6% -0.6%
06:00 EUR German Domestic Demand Q1 F -- -2.1%
06:00 EUR German Imports Q1 F 4.0% -1.8%
06:00 EUR German Exports Q1 F 1.5% 3.0%
07:00 EUR French PMI Services May P 59.0 59.2
07:00 EUR French PMI Manufacturing May P 56.7 56.6
07:30 EUR German PMI Services May A 55.4 55.2
07:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing May A 61.2 61.5
07:00 CHF Money Supply M3 Y/Y Apr -- 5.9%
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations May 103.5 104.0
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate May 101.9 101.6
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment May 100.0 99.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services May A 55.6 55.6
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing May A 57.4 57.6
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Composite May A 57.2 57.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account s.a. (EUR) Mar -- -3.9B
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account n.s.a. (EUR) Mar -- -5.2B
08:30 GBP Total Business Investment Q/Q Q1 P -0.6% -4.3%
08:30 GBP Total Business Investment Y/Y Q1 P -16.5% -23.5%
08:30 GBP Major Banks Mortgage Approvals Apr 53K 52K
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) Apr 10.9B 23.5B
08:30 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) Apr 7.0B 25.8B
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M (APR P) 0.3% 0.2%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y (APR P) 3.8% 3.6%
11:00 CAD CPI M/M Apr 0.2% 0.0%
11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Apr 1.7% 1.4%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Apr 0.1% -0.2%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Apr 1.8% 1.7%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.0% 0.5%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Mar 0.4% -0.1%
23:00 USD Fed's Dudley to Speak at the New College of -- --

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19 mai 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

Current position : FLAT.

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

TRACK Since April

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence May -- -1.0%

00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index May -- 116.1

01:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q1 0.8% 0.6%

01:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Y/Y Q1 2.9% 2.9%

01:00 AUD DEWR Skilled Vacancies M/M May -- 1.3%

01:45 USD Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker Speaks in -- --

04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar F -- 0.3%

04:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar F -- 30.7%

04:30 JPY Capacity Utilization M/M Mar F -- 0.0%

08:30 GBP BoE Meeting Minutes -- --

09:00 EUR Eurozone Construction Output s.a. M/M Mar -- -3.3%

09:00 EUR Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a. Y/Y Mar -- -15.2%

11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 14) -- 3.9%

12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Mar 0.4% -1.2%

12:30 USD CPI M/M Apr 0.1% 0.1%

12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Apr 2.4% 2.3%

12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Apr 0.1% 0.0%

12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Apr 1.0% 1.1%

12:30 USD CPI Core Index s.a. Apr -- 220.664

12:30 USD CPI n.s.a. Apr 218.194 217.631

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 14) -- -2814K

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 14) -- 1396K

18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes -- --

23:50 JPY Housing Loans Y/Y Q1 -- 1.6%

23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q1 P 1.4% 0.9%

23:50 JPY GDP Annualized Q1 P 5.5% 3.8%

23:50 JPY Nominal GDP Q/Q Q1 P 1.3% 0.1%

23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 P -3.0% -2.8%

Thursday, May 20, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

-- EUR Italian Current Account (EUR) Mar -- -4990

01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation May -- 4.1%

01:30 AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (AUD) Apr -- 892M

01:30 AUD Average Weekly Wages Q/Q Feb 0.9% 2.0%

01:30 AUD Average Weekly Wages Y/Y Feb 5.4% 5.9%

02:00 NZD Finance Minister Bill English Delivers Budget -- --

06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Apr 0.6% 0.7%

06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Apr 0.4% -1.5%

07:00 JPY Convenience Store Sales Y/Y Apr -- -4.9%

08:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales s.a. M/M Mar -- -2.6%

08:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales n.s.a. Y/Y Mar -- 4.2%

09:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) May -- 53.4

12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Apr -- 1.0%

12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 15) 440K 444K

12:30 USD Continuing Claims (MAY 8) -- 4627K

13:00 USD RPX Composite 28 Day Index (MAR 31) -- 186.24

13:00 USD RPX Composite 28 Day Y/Y Mar -- -0.18%

14:00 USD Leading Indicators Apr 0.2% 1.4%

14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed May 22.0 20.2

14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence May A -16 -15

22:45 NZD Visitor Arrivals Apr -- 1.1%

22:45 NZD New Zealand Net Migration s.a. Apr -- 980

Friday, May 21, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

-- JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision -- 0.10%