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Q.1. What are the benefits of the TATA-CORUS merger deal to the
stakeholders of TATA Steel and the stakeholders of CORUS? Evaluate
the post-merger security with the help of CAPM Model.
A.1. On January 31st, 2007 India’s Tata Steel acquired Corus, the erstwhile
British Steel Major at a price of 608 pence per Corus share totaling
$12.1 billion/ Rs 54,000 crore/ £6.1 bn, which was five pence per share
higher than the offer of Brazil’s CSN (Companhia Siderugica Nacional).
The deal is the largest Indian takeover of a foreign company, and
creates the world's fifth-biggest steel company from the present 56th
rank.
Short-Term Implications
Investors with a one-to-two year perspective may find the Tata Steel stock
unattractive at current price levels. While the potential downside to the stock
may be limited, it may consolidate in a narrow range, as there appears to be
no short-term triggers to drive up the stock. The formalities for completing
the acquisition may take three to four months, before the integration
committees get down to work on the deal. In our view, three elements are
stacked against this deal in the short run:
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2) Margin picture: Short-term triggers that may help improve the
operating profit margin of the combined entity seem to be missing. In the
third quarter ended September 2006, Corus had clocked an operating
margin of 9.2 per cent compared with 32 per cent by Tata Steel for the
third quarter ended December 2006. In effect, Tata Steel is buying an
operation with substantially lower margins. Corus has been working on
the "Restoring Success" programme aimed at closing the competitive gap
that existed between Corus and the European steel peers. The gap in
2003 was about 6 per cent in the operating profit level when measured
against the average of European competitors. And this programme is
expected to deliver the full benefits of 680 million pounds in line with
plan. With this programme running out in 2006 and being replaced by
`The Corus Way', the scope for Tata Steel to bring about short-term
improvements in margins may be limited. Even the potential synergies of
the $300-350 million a year expected to accrue to the bottomline of the
combined entity from the third year onwards, may be at lower levels in
the first two years. As outlined by Mr B. Muthuraman, Managing Director
of Tata Steel, synergies are expected in the procurement of material, in
the marketplace, in shared services and better operations in India by
adopting Corus's best practices in some areas.
3) The steel cycle: While the industry expects steel prices to remain firm in
the next two-three years, the impact of Chinese exports has not been
factored into prices and the steel cycle. There are clear indications that
steel imports into the EU and the US have been rising significantly. At 10-
12 million tonnes in the third quarter of 2006, they are twice the level in
the same period last year and China has been a key contributor. This has
led to considerable uncertainty on the pricing front. Though regaining
pricing power is one of the objectives of the Tata-Corus deal, prices may
not necessarily remain stable in this fragmented industry. The top five
players, even after this round of consolidation, will control only about 25
per cent of global capacities. Hence, the steel cycle may stabilise only if
the latest deal triggers a further round of consolidation among the top ten
producers.
Long-Run Picture
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20 per cent cost advantage in slab production over their European
peers. Hence, any meaningful gains from this deal will emerge only by
2009-10, when Tata Steel can start exporting low-cost slabs to Corus.
This is unlikely to be a short-term outcome as neither Tata Steel's six-
million-tonne greenfield plant in Orissa nor the expansion in
Jamshedpur is likely to create the kind of capacity that can lead to
surplus slab-making/semi-finished steel capacity on a standalone basis.
Second, there may be further constraints to exports as Tata Steel will
also be servicing the requirements of NatSteel, Singapore, and
Millennium Steel, Thailand, its two recent acquisitions in Asia. However,
this dynamic may change if the Tatas can make some acquisitions in
low-cost regions such as Latin America, opening up a secure source of
slab-making that can be exported to Corus's plants in the UK. Or if the
iron ore policy in India undergoes a change over the next couple of
years, Tata Steel may be able to explore alternatives in the coming
years.
2) Restructuring at Corus: The raison d'etre for this deal for Tata Steel
is access to the European market and significantly higher value-added
presence. In the long run, there is considerable scope to restructure
Corus' high-cost plants at Port Talbot, Scunthorpe and the slab-making
unit at Teesside. The job cuts that Tata Steel is ruling out at present
may become inevitable in the long run. Though it may be premature at
this stage, over time, Tata Steel may consider the possibility of
divesting or spinning off the engineering steels division at Rotherham
with a production capacity of 1 million tonnes. The ability of the Tatas
to improve the combined operating profit margins to 25 per cent (from
around 14 per cent in 2005) over the next four to five years will hinge
on these two aspects. In our view, two factors may soften the risks of
dramatic restructuring at the high-cost plants in UK. If global
consolidation gathers momentum with, say, the merger of
Thyssenkrupp with Nucor, or Severstal with Gerdau or any of the top
five players, the likelihood of pricing stability may ease the
performance pressures on Tata-Corus. Two, if the Tatas contemplate
global listing (say, in London) on the lines of Vedanta Resources (the
holding company of Sterlite Industries), it may help the group
command a much higher price-earnings multiple and give it greater
flexibility in managing its finances.
In order to survive, Corus needs to extend its global reach just as much as
Tata does.
A tie-up with Tata gives it, among other things, access to markets in India -
one of the fastest-growing economies in the world - as well as access to low-
cost materials.
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Shareholders in Corus gained from the acquisition as the premium offered
much more price than the book value of shares.
1. Corus shares rose 6.8% to 601.5 pence in intra day trading on the
London stock exchange on January 31, 2007.
3. Corus have a much better R&D and Tata have also better R&D other
than in India, so combine entity have very strong R&D Dept. that would
enable them to create a better output and faces competitive majors
successfully in future market.
CAPM Model
CAPM is a model that describes the relationship between risk and expected
(required) return; in this model, a security’s expected (required) return is the
risk-free rate plus a premium based on the systematic risk of the security
CAPM assumptions
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4. Market portfolio contains only systematic risk (use S&P 500 Index or
similar as a proxy).
or:
Characteristic
Characteristic Line
Line
Narrower spread
EXCESS RETURN
is higher correlation
ON STOCK
Rise
Beta =
Run
EXCESS RETURN
ON MARKET PORTFOLIO
Characteristic Line
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So by the CAPM model, we can say that TATA has taken a right path for the
deal of merger and the risk valuation also low as the Corus is already a
established industry captured European market, and the diversified asset of
Tata through the merger deal would definitely gave the expected rate of
return because the asset is to be added to an already well diversified
portfolio and it support the theoretically value of the CAPM model. Further
consolidation of the industries makes the market in a stabilized condition.
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Q2. TATA has claimed some synergies during the takeover deal. Comment
on the Takeover Tactics and the resulting synergies which shall benefit
the organization. Under what circumstances will TATA and its
stakeholders benefit in this merger?
A.2. Takeover tactics adopted by Tata Steel was purely friendly. The
offered to takeover Corus. There were many synergies between the two
companies which are mentioned below. Considering this synergies Corus
directors and employees were in total agreement to be taken over by the
Tata’s in comparison to the Brazilian CSN.
i. Tata Steel would get an access to the European market. Corus has
already a well-defined network in European Market. If Tata Steel had
independently entered the European market, it would have taken a
considerable time to develop a well-established network. In the post
deal scenario it will become a global player with the balanced presence
in developed European market and fast growing Asian Market.
ii. Tata Steel will have a strong position in construction, automotive and
packaging market sector.
iii. It will have a low cost position in Europe and South East Asia.
iv. It can double the size and profitability
v. The deal has expanded scale from 7 MTPA to 25 MTPA and reaps
significant economies of scale.
vi. The merged entity would become world’s 6th largest steel company
with 25.6 MTPA of crude steel production.
vii. The combined entity will have more efficient operations through
enhanced optionality to optimize asset base and material flow,
including sourcing of raw materials, and semi-finished steel.
viii. Better equipped to race intensifying competition arising from
consolidation in the industry globally.
ix. Both Tata Steel and Corus are a strong cultural fit.
x. Tata Steel would benefit from Corus’s pan-European distribution
network.
xi. The acquisition gets with Tata Steel’s stated objective of having a
global distribution network.
xii. There a strong cultural fit both the two companies.
-Both Tata Steel and Corus have strong commercial relationship.
-Management of both companies are highly focused on improving
efficiency and productivity
-Tata’s continuous improvement programme “ASPIRE”, whereas Corus
improvement programme – “The Corus Way”
-World class governance
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Under the following circumstances TATA and its stakeholders will
benefit from the merger:
• Any advantage and profits from this deal will merge only when
Tata Steel would be in a position to export low-cost slabs to
Corus.
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Q3. What are the long-term implications of this deal on the global steel
market? Justify your answer with strong reasoning and
financial/technical analysis. Cite an example of another Indian
company entering the global market and which has been successful.
A.3. There has been growing evidence of a shift in global business power,
with foreign investment from developing countries now a major factor
in the world economy.
The long term implication of the deal for Tata Corus reflected in the
corporate objectives. It has to decide the specific objectives to be
achieved through acquisition. The basic purpose of this combination
was to achieve faster growth of the corporate business. Faster growth
may be had through product improvement and competitive position.
Other possible purposes for the acquisition are short listed below: -
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(d) Financial strength:
Both Tata Steel and Corus exhibit degrees of cooperative spirit despite
competitiveness in providing rescues to each other from hostile takeovers
and cultivate situations of collaborations sharing goodwill of each other to
achieve performance heights through business combinations.
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