6/24/2016

Brexit:thedemographicdivideFT.com

UK's EU referendum

Brexit: the demographic divide

John Burn-Murdoch
JUNE 24, 2016 12:50 PM

by: John Burn-Murdoch

FollowJohnBurnMurdoch(https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch)
BritainhasvotedtoleavetheEU,aftertheLeavecampaignwon51.9percentofvotes(htt
ps://ig.ft.com/sites/elections/2016/uk/eureferendum/)inThursdaysreferendum.
Lessthan24hoursafterpollsclosed,therepercussionshavealreadybeenenormousboth
inbreadthanddepth.BritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameronannouncedhisresignation,
whilstcurrencymarketsandstockindexestheworldoverwerethrownintochaoson
Fridayastheresultbecameclear.
AspollsclosedonThursday,theimpressionwasthattheresultwouldbeextremelyclose.
Thisallowedbothsideshopeofvictory,meaningmanyofthe16mpeoplewhovoted
RemainhavespentmuchofFridayinshock,askinghowthishappened.
NodoubtthechainofeventsthatledtoBrexitwillbeexaminedingreatdetailand
muchanguishontheRemainsideforyearstocome.RapidchangesintheUKspolitical
climateundoubtedlyplayedapart,andglobaleventsincludingtheGreatRecessionand
recentEuropeanmigrantcrisishavelefttheirmark.
Butfornowwecanfocusonwhatweknowintheimmediateaftermathofthevote:the
distinguishingcharacteristicsoftheareasofBritainthatvotedforeitherside.
Voteswerereportedineachof382countingareas:382localgovernmentdistrictsin
England,WalesandScotland,plusNorthernIrelandasasingleentityandfinally
Gibraltar.BetweentheUKscensusandotherofficialnationalstatistics,dataisavailable
onthedemographicandsocioeconomiccharacteristicsofmostoralloftheseareas,
allowingustoidentifycommonfactorsamongregionswhichvotedonewayortheother.
Whovotedwhichway?
Belowarefiveofthemoststatisticallysignificantofthesefactors.Pollingaheadofthe
referendumhadlongsinceidentifiededucationasoneofthefundamentaldriversof
votingintention,andthedemographicdatashowsthatthiswasabsolutelythecase.

https://next.ft.com/content/1ce1a720ce943c32a6898d2356388a1f

1/7

6/24/2016

Brexit:thedemographicdivideFT.com

Outofmorethan100keysocialcharacteristics,thepercentageofpeoplewithadegree
wasthemoststronglyassociatedwiththeshareofvoterswhovotedRemain.
Unsurprisingly,theproportionofpeopleinjobsclassifiedasprofessionaloccupations
generallyrequiringadegreeequivalentqualificationwasthenextstrongest.
https://next.ft.com/content/1ce1a720ce943c32a6898d2356388a1f

2/7

6/24/2016

Brexit:thedemographicdivideFT.com

IntherecentLondonMayoralElection,wecarriedoutasimilaranalysisandfoundthat
areaswheremanypeopledidnotholdapassportindicatingtheywouldnothavebeen
abroadrecentlytendedtoyieldhighvotesforthefarrightBritainFirstparty.
Thesamepatternemergeshere.Aftereducationandoccupation,theshareofpeoplenot
holdingapassportwasthenextmoststronglycorrelatedcharacteristicwiththeLeave
vote.Itmaysimplybeastatisticalquirkthatseesthesamestatisticemergeasastrong
indicatorofbothsupportforBritainFirstandtheLeavecampaign,butitmayalsobethat
wereseeingproxyevidenceofthenationalistthemethathasbeenidentifiedinsomeof
Leavescampaigning.
Thesethreearebysomewaythestrongestassociationswiththepatternoftheresult
acrossthecountry,buttwomorepatternsarealsoworthmentioning.First,earnings.
Beforethevoteseveralpollsidentifiedacommonfinding:peopleintendingtovoteLeave
weremuchmorelikelythanRemainvoterstosaytheyfeltBritainseconomywaseither
stagnantorindecline.
ThisspeakstothewideningriftinBritishsocietythatmanyhavetoutedasoneofthekey
shiftsthatpreparedthegroundforBrexit.Earningsdatashowsthattheremaybesome
truthinthis:areaswithhighermedianincomestendedtoleanRemain,whilstlower
incomesleanedLeave.
Andfinally,age.ThegenerationaldivideonBrexithasbeencommonknowledge
throughoutthecampaign,andisapparentinthedemographicdata,evenifonlyweakly.
Hadturnoutbeenhigheramongyoungerpeopleitsinfluencewouldhavebeeneven
greater,butasisusuallythecase,therewasaslightgeneraltrendforturnouttoincrease
inlinewithaverageage.

https://next.ft.com/content/1ce1a720ce943c32a6898d2356388a1f

3/7

6/24/2016

Brexit:thedemographicdivideFT.com

Theregionaldivide
Leavewonthedaybymorethanonemillionvotes,whichmakesthepredominantly
Remainregionsnotable.IneveryoneofScotlands32councilareasmorethan50percent
ofthevotewenttoRemain,andtheoverallsplitwas6238.Londonwasalmostasfirmly
Remain,voting6040overall,withRemainmajoritiesin28ofits33boroughs.Buta
closerlookattheeducationchartfromearliershowsthatthewaysinwhichthetwovoted
Remainarequitedifferent.

https://next.ft.com/content/1ce1a720ce943c32a6898d2356388a1f

4/7

6/24/2016

Brexit:thedemographicdivideFT.com

Londonsboroughsslotfairlynicelyintothenationalpattern:moreeducationwas
associatedwithalowerLeavevote,andtheLeavevoteforanygivenlevelpercentageof
degreeeducatedpeoplewasbroadlyinlinewiththenationaltrend.WhatmakesLondona
Remainstrongholdisitshigheducationlevels.
ButinScotland,whilstthegeneralpatternofmoreeducationcoincidingwithlessLeave
votesheldtrue,thewholeclusterisshifteddownwardsawayfromtheoveralltrendline:
thesamelevelofeducationinScotlandyieldsahigherRemainvotethanitwould
elsewhereintheUK,showingthattheScotsweremorenaturallyinclinedtovoteRemain,
regardlessofeducationlevels.
WillLeaveruetheirdecision?
Tendaysbeforethereferendum,theCentreforEuropeanReformthinktankpublisheda
report(http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/brexitingyourselffootwhybritainseurosceptic
https://next.ft.com/content/1ce1a720ce943c32a6898d2356388a1f

5/7

6/24/2016

Brexit:thedemographicdivideFT.com

regionshavemostloseeuwithdrawal)askingwhetherLeavevotersmaybeBrexiting
[themselves]inthefoot.OneofthecorepointswasthatthepartsoftheUKwhichrely
themostheavilyontheEUforexportswerepredictedtobethemostantiEU,basedon
analysisoftheBritishElectionSurveybyacademicsNickVivyan(https://www.dur.ac.uk/
sgia/profiles/?id=9278)andChrisHanretty(https://twitter.com/chrishanretty).
Todaywereproducedthechartusingtheactualresultsratherthantheprojections,and
thepatternholds.Onaverage,thehigherthepercentageofaregionseconomicoutput
thatiscurrentlyexportedtotheEU,thehigheritsLeavevoteturnedouttobe.

FollowJohnBurnMurdoch(https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch)
Printasinglecopyofthisarticleforpersonaluse.Contactusifyouwishtoprintmoreto
distributetoothers.TheFinancialTimesLtd.
https://next.ft.com/content/1ce1a720ce943c32a6898d2356388a1f

6/7