Michael Bonamer

Background:
With President Dilma Rousseffs Luz para todos campaign to provide
electricity for the entire nation, the energy production of Brazil has increased
greatly over the past decade, and with increasing urbanization and development in
the Amazon region of Brazil the demand for power will only increase in the future.
While much of the energy needs of the country are produced using hydroelectric
means, a significant portion of Brazils power is generated through the burning of
fossil fuels, and as the demand for power increases, it can be expected that energy
production using fossil fuels will also increase. With this production increase, the
byproducts of using fossil fuels will increase as well, which could cause disturbances
to the environment of the region. The emissions of sulfates and nitrates form acidic
compounds in the presence of moisture, which contribute to the acidification of a
regions precipitation.
Acid precipitation can have several harmful effects on an ecosystem,
stemming from the impact it has on soil or water chemistry. In aquatic systems, the
acidic conditions can make sensitive fish or zooplankton unable to develop
normally, and on land the acidic ions can free aluminum from silicate minerals. The
aluminum can hinder root absorption in some plants and be toxic to fish and aquatic
invertebrates if it enters the water supply. The ability for an ecosystem to handle
the introduction of this acidity is measured in the waters acid neutralizing capacity,
or ANC. The ANC is influenced by the presence of buffering ions in a water supply,
as well as the preexisting level of acidity, measured in pH.

Project Objectives and Hypotheses:

The purpose of this experiment is to more fully understand the possible
effects that the increasing demand for energy could cause for the ecosystems of the
Rio Negro and the Solimoes River regions. In order to understand this, the pH,
alkalinity, and water hardness of each river will be studied in the field, and literature
studies of the projected energy production, sulfate and nitrate emissions, and the
effects of these emissions on hydrogen ion concentrations will be conducted as well.
With this information, a projected pH change of the two regions will hopefully be
achieved.
The current hypothesis is that the Rio Negro will have a significantly lower
acid neutralizing capacity due to both low levels of dissolved buffering ions and an
already low pH of the water supply. This would put the Rio Negro region at a much
higher risk of experiencing detrimental effects due to acidified precipitation than the
Solimoes, however the data found will allow for a calculation of how resistant either
system will be to changes in acidity.

Approach and Data:

Michael Bonamer
Experimentation will be conducted between the dates of March 18 and March
26. If necessary, the river water will first be filtered, and then measurements of pH,
water hardness, and alkalinity will be taken and recorded. The pH of the water will
be tested using both pH test strips as well as a pH meter, to allow for a greater
degree of confidence in the accuracy of the data. Several points of data will be
recorded for each river, so that averages of pH and alkalinity can be found. The
results of the experimentation conducted in the field showed that the average pH of
the Solimoes River was 7.98 and that of the Rio Negro was 4.46. The average
measure of carbonate hardness for the Solimoes River was found to be 60 parts per
million and that of the Rio Negro was found to be 5 parts per million. These values
appear to correspond well with the expectations provided from research on the two
rivers, as the Solimoes is known to have more buffering ions coming from the
sediment in the soil, and the Rio Negro is known to have a lower pH from the tanic
acid produced by decaying plant matter.

Calculations:
Using data gathered from 1990 to 2015, Brazil was found to have average
annual rates of growth for energy production in the coal, oil and natural gas sectors
of .9, 2, and 3.8 percent, respectively. This data led to a 2030 projection of 18
Megatons of oil equivalent production in the coal sector, 141.7 Megatons of oil
equivalent in the oil sector, and 41.2 Megatons of oil equivalent in the natural gas
sector, as shown in Figure 1 [1], which can be converted to Megawatt hours by
multiplying by a factor of 1:11.63. This conversion showed that the projected energy
production in 2030 by coal, oil and natural gas is 2.09e8 MWhr, 1.65e9 MWhr, and
4.79 MWhr, respectively.
The Emissions and Generation Resource Integrated Database, run by the EPA
provides emission rates by fuel type, which were used to convert the values of
energy to the mass of sulfate and nitrate emissions projected for the year 2030. The
values used for these rates is shown in Figure 2, and they allowed for the total mass
of sulfate emissions to be calculated at 8.27e9 pounds and the total mass of nitrate
emissions to be calculated at 6.38e10 pounds [2]. With a simple conversion to
kilograms, and then moles of the material, the emissions of sulfate and nitrate were
found to be 5.85e10 and 6.29e11 moles.
In analyzing a study conducted by Thomas J. Butler and Gene E. Likens titled
The Impact of Changing Regional Emissions on Precipitation Chemistry in the
Eastern United States, a correlation between the moles of sulfate and nitrate
emissions and changes in the hydrogen ion concentration was found at three
separate sites over 9-13 year periods. Using data from the site which had both the
greatest number of measurements and the strongest correlation, with a R^2 value
of .78, the increase in hydrogen ion concentration (in microequivalents per liter)
was shown to equal -37.59 +.108x, where x is two times the sulfate concentration
plus the nitrate concentration (in billions of moles) [3]. By using the values for
moles of sulfate and nitrate emissions, the increase in hydrogen ion concentration
was calculated to be 43.032 microequivalents per liter.

Michael Bonamer
This value, as well as the gathered data of alkalinity and pH of the two rivers,
was used in a system of equations [4] to calculate the projected pH of the two rivers
for the year 2030. The system included many logarithmic expressions and required
a computational engine to solve, providing a pH for the Rio Negro of 4.395 and a pH
of the Solimoes River of 7.587 as the projected pH in the year 2030. These values
account for a pH drop of .065 and .393 for the respective river systems.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Michael Bonamer

Conclusions:
The initial hypothesis for the experiment was that the Rio Negro would see a
greater change in pH due to its lower buffering capacity, however, this hypothesis
proved to be false. Because the Rio Negro already had a very low pH, measured at
4.46, and therefore an already high concentration of hydrogen ions, the introduction
of new ions did not have a drastic effect on the system, only decreasing the pH by .
065. The Solimoes River was found to have a greater pH change with a reduction
of .393. In addition, even though the Solimoes River is projected to have a greater
reduction in pH than the Rio Negro, this reduction is still very small, and likely will
not have a significant impact on the ecosystem of the region. A change in pH of .
393 could be significant if it took place quickly, as rapid fluctuations of that
magnitude can cause stress on certain fish species, but experiencing this change in
nearly fifteen years is not likely to cause any environmental ramifications on its
own.

Reference:
[1] https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/brazil.pdf
[2] http://engineering.wayne.edu/wsuwater/emissions-model/emissions.php
[3] http://ac.els-cdn.com/096016869190302N/1-s2.0-096016869190302N-main.pdf?
_tid=4e823e8a-0bb4-11e6-879500000aab0f6c&acdnat=1461678152_16b92b82ea08d004865d34e97364599b
[4] http://www.wetnewf.org/pdfs/Brewing_articles/Water_acidification.html