Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
• Europe update this morning; all eyes on German vote (lower House just passed as expected) and
Eurozone Fin Min meeting ‐ more peaceful than expected protests in Greece on Thurs. Spain late in
trading yesterday lowered its eco growth forecast due to budget reductions however market focusing
more on drop in projected 2011 budget deficit (to 6% of GDP from 11.2%) more than cut to GDP
forecast (to +1.3% in ’11 from prior +1.8%). Eurozone eco date was mixed with the UK’s Apr. Budget
deficit coming in lower than expected being offset by weaker readings from the German Apr. IFO and
Eurozone May composite PMI• Euro strength – was up to 1.265 overnight but now flattish at 1.25.
• Siemens – one of Europe’s largest industrial firms ‐ said on Friday business developments in April
were in line with expectations and it remains on track to meet its targets for this fiscal year. The co
noted that a weaker euro is a positive for it – Reuters
• Corporate commentary on the euro – for the moment, the few companies that have commented on
business trends given the European debt crisis haven’t sounded too worried; the only risk most are
citing relates to exchange rates; it doesn’t seem like demand trends have weakened much
• Bill Gross said that hedge funds were starting to liquidate their positions in a bid to preserve their
capital – a worrying "mini relapse" towards 2008 territory (London Telegraph)
• Financial regulatory reform legislation passed – this was widely expected after cloture; the next big
process to take place w/will conferencing reconciliation w/the House. WSJ
• Fed governor Tarullo testified before the House Thurs on the situation in Europe – this is the first
time a Fed official has responded to the events occurring across the Atlantic. Nothing too
groundbreaking – says the US can’t do much to help Europe solve this crisis; notes that a steep
downturn in European growth would impact the US recovery; says US banks don’t have a ton of
exposure to European peripheral sovereign debt
• Health Care – a lot of companies may soon discover that it would be cheaper not to provide health
insurance to their employees; paying the fines to Washington may be a cheaper option – WSJ
• Greece’s strike on Thurs was more peaceful than expected and winded up being relatively
uneventful, a sharp contrast to May 6 – WSJ
• France and Germany trying to show more united front to markets; A German spokesman said
Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy had agreed to cooperate on euro‐zone growth strategies
and coordinate their positions on world financial rules at a G20 summit next month. Sarkozy will also
visit Berlin on June 7. Reuters/CNBC• New German short bans still causing mass confusion; lawyers
still not sure how the rules will work; firm Allen & Overy and the International Swaps and Derivatives
Association, the banking industry trade body, hosted a call for traders and other market professionals to
attempt to explain the impact of the German rules on Wed. However, they were unable to answer many
of the technical questions. London Telegaph
• Euro as we know it is dead ‐ now seems inevitable that the zone may break apart; At the bottom
end, Greece and Portugal are favorites to be forced out through weakness. At the top end, proposals are
already being floated in the Frankfurt press for a new "hard currency" zone, led by Germany, Austria and
the Benelux countries. Either way, rich and poor are heading in opposite directions. London Telegraph
• "Perfect storm" of market tremors hits US, China, Europe; "People have been too complacent about
risky assets. This is a global deflation scare and people need to get ready for falls in US and European
bond yields to 2pc." London Telegraph
• Leading London experts have started raising the prospect of "Great Depression II" amid worries that
the European economic crisis could trigger a deeper bout of chaos. London Telegraph
• US Equity Strategy – from T Lee ‐ Global markets derisking systemically and pervasively (from
commodities, to corporates, to equities), and it is simply not realistic for investors to dismiss this as
“irrational” – the “new normal” of markets is characterized by fragility of confidence, and hence, greater
volatility. We tend to view equities as the junior piece of the capital structure, and so, if the dog is weak,
so is the tail. At the same time, we do not subscribe to the view that equities are/were overvalued, nor
do we see risk of a “double dip,” thus our medium constructive view is intact. However, at this time,
neither valuations nor fundamentals are the driver.
SPX daily chart
The S&P is up a little over 58% from its lows last march…and down 13.3% from its highs in April.