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2nd Quarter 2004

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey


United States

Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217


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© 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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Contents
United States Employment Outlook 2

The Americas Employment Outlook 14

Global Employment Outlook 16

About the Survey 18

About Manpower 19

The United States Employment Outlook


Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with Employment Outlook of 22%. Sixty-two percent of the
employers across the United States to measure employers polled anticipate no change in hiring activity,
anticipated employment trends between April and June and 4% are uncertain of the job outlook at their companies.
2004. All participants were asked, “How do you The employment outlook has not been this promising
anticipate total employment at your location to change in since the first quarter of 2001, according to the
the three months to the end of June 2004 as compared seasonally adjusted survey results.
to the current quarter?”
The job forecast for the second quarter is a steady
Of the US employers that were surveyed, 28% expect improvement from the first quarter of 2004 and is nearly
an increase in hiring in the second quarter, while 6% twice as strong as it was last year at this time.
plan to decrease staff levels. This creates a Net

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
3rd Quarter 2003 20 9 65 6 11 7
4th Quarter 2003 22 11 62 5 11 10
1st Quarter 2004 20 13 61 6 7 13
2nd Quarter 2004 28 6 62 4 22 20

30

25

20

15

10

0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

2
Employers in each of the 10 industry sectors surveyed are Manufacturing, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
more optimistic about their hiring plans for the second Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade,
quarter of 2004, compared with first quarter and a year ago. Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Services.

When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Employer confidence in hiring is most apparent within the
job outlook in seven of the sectors is more robust than it Construction sector where the employment picture has not
has been in three years, since the second quarter of 2001. been so strong since 1978.
Those sectors include Construction, Durable Goods

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Construction 42 4 50 4 38 28
Education 15 8 73 4 7 8
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 23 6 65 6 17 16
Manufacturing – Durables 31 8 57 4 23 19
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 27 7 62 4 20 18
Mining 21 6 72 1 15 14
Public Administration 21 8 67 4 13 9
Services 30 5 61 4 25 21
Transportation & Public Utilities 23 7 65 5 16 16
Wholesale & Retail Trade 30 7 59 4 23 23

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.

Employment opportunities are expected to increase exception of last quarter’s survey, employers in the
across the country in the second quarter. On a South have been among the most optimistic in their
seasonally adjusted basis, employers in each of the four hiring plans since the second quarter of 2002.
US regions plan to offer more jobs than they have since
The fewest job opportunities for the April – June period
the beginning months of 2001.
are expected in the Northeast.
The hiring outlook is strongest in the South. With the

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Midwest 29 6 62 3 23 19
Northeast 26 8 61 5 18 17
South 29 5 62 4 24 22
West 30 8 55 7 22 20

3
Regional Comparisons
Midwest
Of the employers surveyed in the Midwest, 29% first period of 2004. The most quarter-over-quarter job
anticipate an increase in hiring in the second quarter, gains are predicted in the Non-Durable Goods
while 6% expect a decrease in employment activity. Manufacturing sector.
Thus, the Net Employment Outlook is 23%. This marks a
Midwest employers are more optimistic in their hiring
notable surge in hiring expectations from the first quarter
estimates than they were a year ago in every industry
and a year ago. According to the seasonally adjusted
sector but Finance/Insurance/Real Estate where job
survey results, the job forecast for the Midwest has not
growth is expected to be flat. A significant increase in
been as positive in more than three years.
employment prospects over last year is anticipated for
With the exception of Mining, employers in each of the the Mining, Construction, Durable and Non-Durable
10 industry sectors surveyed plan to offer more job Goods Manufacturing, and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors.
opportunities in the second quarter, compared with the

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 29 6 62 3 23 19
Construction 48 5 42 5 43 23
Education 13 9 76 2 4 5
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 8 69 3 12 11
Manufacturing – Durables 32 7 59 2 25 21
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 28 5 63 4 23 22
Mining 0 0 100 0 0 -4
Public Administration 27 11 58 4 16 6
Services 27 5 66 2 22 18
Transportation & Public Utilities 21 7 67 5 14 11
Wholesale & Retail Trade 30 5 62 3 25 23

35

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25

20

15

10

0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The Midwest Region is comprised of the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota,
Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

4
Northeast
Twenty-six percent of employers surveyed in the They anticipate moderate job growth in the Durable
Northeast report an increase in hiring intentions, and 8% and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
forecast a decrease, resulting in a Net Employment Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services and Public
Outlook of 18%. Although employers in the Northeast Administration sectors. Hiring is expected to be stable in
expect to offer ample job opportunities, the outlook for the Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade
this area is not as strong as the other three US regions, and Education sectors.
on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the Northeast, the
Mining employers in the Northeast report a substantial
second quarter is expected to bring slightly more job
reduction in hiring activity, compared with last quarter
prospects than first quarter and even better prospects
and last year. Employers in the other nine industry
than last year at this time.
sectors expect stronger year-over-year hiring, particularly
Employers in this region project a considerable increase in Construction, Transportation/Public Utilities,
in Construction hiring from the first quarter of this year. Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Public Administration.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 26 8 61 5 18 17
Construction 38 3 55 4 35 28
Education 13 8 75 4 5 7
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 27 6 61 6 21 19
Manufacturing – Durables 26 8 61 5 18 16
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 26 10 62 2 16 14
Mining 0 25 75 0 -25 -26
Public Administration 16 9 70 5 7 5
Services 26 5 64 5 21 18
Transportation & Public Utilities 23 12 61 4 11 12
Wholesale & Retail Trade 29 10 55 6 19 21

30

25

20

15

10

-5
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The Northeast Region is comprised of the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.

5
South
In the South, 29% of employers surveyed plan to increase A boost in hiring from first quarter and a year ago is
hiring activity, while 5% expect fewer employment anticipated across all 10 industry sectors in the South.
opportunities. This creates a Net Employment Outlook The expected increases are most significant in the
of 24%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the job outlook Mining, Transportation/Public Utilities and
for the South is the strongest of the four US regions, Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors. Finance/Insurance/Real
as it has been for seven of the past eight quarters. Estate and Education employers predict the most modest
Employers in the South anticipate a moderate job growth quarter over quarter and year over year.
improvement in hiring over last quarter and last year
at this time.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 29 5 62 4 24 22
Construction 41 3 52 4 38 30
Education 15 6 77 2 9 11
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 22 4 68 6 18 18
Manufacturing – Durables 33 7 56 4 26 22
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 25 6 65 4 19 17
Mining 29 8 61 2 21 21
Public Administration 19 2 75 4 17 14
Services 31 5 59 5 26 22
Transportation & Public Utilities 25 4 67 4 21 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 30 6 59 5 24 24

30

25

20

15

10

0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

The South Region is comprised of the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

6
West
Of the employers surveyed in the West, 30% plan an Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education. Hiring
increase in employment, while 8% predict that hiring expectations are even stronger in the Services sector
activity will decline. Thus, the Net Employment Outlook where employers foresee a considerable increase in
is 22%. When seasonal variations are removed from the hiring, compared with the previous quarter and last year
data, this represents a slight improvement in hiring at this time.
intentions from last quarter and a moderate
For the third consecutive quarter, minimal employment
improvement from last year at this time.
activity is expected among employers in the Public
Modest job growth over first quarter is anticipated in six Administration sector. Mining and Finance/Insurance/
of the 10 industry sectors in the West, including Real Estate are the only sectors in the West in which
Construction, Durable and Non-Durable Goods employers estimate a decrease in job opportunities
Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities, compared with the previous quarter.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 30 8 55 7 22 20
Construction 41 7 47 5 34 26
Education 17 11 59 13 6 5
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 25 5 61 9 20 20
Manufacturing – Durables 31 9 52 8 22 17
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 30 8 56 6 22 19
Mining 12 0 88 0 12 10
Public Administration 22 15 57 6 7 3
Services 36 5 52 7 31 27
Transportation & Public Utilities 25 8 60 7 17 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 31 9 53 7 22 23

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

The West Region is comprised of the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,
Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

7
Sector Comparisons
For the second consecutive quarter, hiring activity is A strong hiring pace is also anticipated in the Durable
expected to increase across all 10 industry sectors on and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Services
a seasonally adjusted basis. and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors.

Employer optimism regarding second quarter hiring is Education and Public Administration employers
most apparent within the Construction industry where predict the fewest employment opportunities for
hiring intentions have not been so strong in 26 years. the second quarter.

Construction 38
28

Education 7
8
17
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
16
23
Manufacturing – Durables
19
20
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
18
15
Mining 14
13
Public Administration 9
25
Services 21
16
Transportation & Public Utilities 16
23
Wholesale & Retail Trade 23

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

8
Construction
Second quarter job prospects in Construction are the quarter, a moderate increase in hiring is expected, and
strongest of all of the industry sectors. Construction job prospects are considerably better than a year ago
employers are more optimistic about hiring than they at this time. Hiring expectations are strongest in the
have been since the late 1970s, according to the South and weakest in the Midwest.
seasonally adjusted data. For the third consecutive

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-20
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Education
Second quarter hiring intentions for the Education sector Jobs are expected to be most plentiful in the South and
show a continued pattern of steady job growth. fewest in the Midwest and West.
According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers
plan slight increases in the hiring pace compared to last
quarter and a year ago.

25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

9
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers report hiring Job prospects are most promising in the West, with
plans similar to those issued the last two quarters and the Northeast and South not far behind. Midwest
predict some job gains for the second quarter. employers report the weakest hiring intentions in
Employers in this sector expect a slight increase in this sector.
hiring over last quarter and a moderate increase
compared with a year ago.

25

20

15

10

0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

Manufacturing – Durable Goods


When seasonal variations are removed from the data, The strongest hiring activity for this sector is expected
Durable Goods Manufacturers expressed their in the South, and employers in the Northeast anticipate
strongest hiring intentions since the first quarter of the fewest job opportunities.
2001. Employers expect a moderate increase in jobs
over last quarter and considerable growth compared
with a year ago.

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

10
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods
According to the seasonally adjusted data, Non- Employers report a moderate increase in jobs over last
Durable Goods Manufacturers plan to hire at a steady quarter and last year at this time.
pace during the second quarter. This marks the highest
Estimated employment levels are strongest in the
expectations in job market growth in three years for the
Midwest and weakest in the Northeast.
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing sector.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

Mining
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mining employers For the second quarter, hiring intentions among Mining
anticipate steady job gains. The hiring pace is expected employers are most optimistic in the South. The least
to be consistent with last quarter but more upbeat than promising job outlook for the Mining sector is in the
a year ago at this time. Northeast with significant job losses anticipated.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

11
Public Administration
Hiring plans among Public Administration employers The strongest hiring activity is expected in the South,
have fluctuated during the last two years, and while the fewest job opportunities are anticipated in
predictions for the coming quarter continue the pattern. the West.
Modest job gains are expected when seasonal variations
are removed from the data, with more hiring expected
over last quarter and last year.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Services
The employment outlook for the Services sector According to seasonally adjusted data, employment
suggests healthy job market growth not seen since the opportunities will be most plentiful in the West.
second quarter of 2001. Employers are more positive in Employers in the Midwest and Northeast anticipate the
their hiring intentions than they were last quarter and a fewest job openings.
year ago.

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

12
Transportation & Public Utilities
When the seasonal variations are removed from the data, Employers in the South and West anticipate the
job opportunities in Transportation/Public Utilities are strongest hiring activity, while those in the Midwest
expected to return to levels last seen during the second expect to hire at a slower pace than the other US
quarter of 2001. Hiring projections are up from last regions.
quarter, and significantly more optimistic than last year.

25
20
15
10
5
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

Wholesale & Retail Trade


On a seasonally adjusted basis, the employment outlook There is little variation in the employment outlook
in the Wholesale/Retail Trade industry is healthier than it across the regions. The most job opportunities are
has been in the last three years. Hiring expectations predicted in the South, and similar gains are expected
continue their steady climb in the second quarter. in the Midwest and West. Slightly less hiring activity is
A modest increase in job prospects from last quarter is estimated in the Northeast.
anticipated, as is significant job growth over last year.

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-15
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04

13
The Americas Employment Outlook
Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure anticipated
employment trends between April and June 2004.

International Comparisons
Canada posted the strongest second quarter outlook, months ahead. Employment prospects in Mexico are
which is typical due to the strong seasonal variations in expected to improve over the coming quarter. Compared
the country. Employers in the United States are reporting to the previous quarter, all countries within the
a considerable increase in hiring intentions for the three Americas are reporting an increase in hiring activity.

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook


% % % % %
Canada 30 6 61 3 24
Mexico 26 12 60 2 14
United States 28 6 62 4 22 (20)1

Comparing the data over time, we see the strong prospects as Canada moves into the warmer months.
seasonal hiring variations that occur in Canada due to In comparing the US and Mexico, there are less
the colder months from October through March. Moving dramatic seasonal shifts and a continued alignment in
into the second quarter, we can see the recovery in job the two countries’ historical hiring expectations.

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004

Canada Mexico United States (Seasonally Adjusted)

1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity
for the United States.

14
Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net the second quarter, compared to the first quarter.
Employment Outlook across two broad categories: In Mexico, employers in the Industry sector have
Industry and Services . Positive hiring activity is
2
predicted quarter-on-quarter improvements. Mexican
expected across the region in both categories. employers in the Services sector are reporting a very
Canadian and American employers in both sectors slight fall of 1 percentage point in anticipated hiring
anticipate a considerable increase in hiring activity for intentions over last quarter.

Net Employment Outlook


Industry Services
Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004
% % % %
Canada -1 23 2 25
Mexico 11 18 12 11
United States 8 24 6 21

2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.

15
Global Employment Outlook
Over 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated
employment trends between April and June 2004.

Regional and International Comparisons


Employers in 18 of the 19 countries surveyed are When seasonal variations are removed from the US and
anticipating a positive employment outlook for the UK data, the UK results are positive, with a steady
second quarter of 2004. Notable improvements in job outlook for the three months ahead and prospects in the
prospects are expected in the US, Japan, Canada, US are the most optimistic since first quarter of 2001.
Austria and Sweden. Germany, despite having reported
a negative Net Employment Outlook, is showing
improved results.

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change


Americas Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q1 to Q2 2004
% %
Canada 1 24 23
Mexico 11 14 3
United States 7 (13)1 22 (20)1 15 (7)1

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change


Asia Pacific Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q1 to Q2 2004
% %
Australia 15 18 3
Hong Kong 12 16 4
Japan 3 20 17
New Zealand – 39 –
Singapore 6 8 2

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change


Europe Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q1 to Q2 2004
% %
Austria -1 11 12
Belgium 7 9 2
France 5 4 -1
Germany -14 -4 10
Ireland 3 9 6
Italy 0 5 5
Netherlands 4 4 0
Norway 10 7 -3
Spain 9 9 0
Sweden 8 17 9
UK 9 (16)1 16 (13)1 7 (-3)1
1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for the UK
and United States.

16
Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net Norway and the Netherlands are the least.
Employment Outlook across two broad categories:
Similarly, in the Services category, job prospects are
Industry and Services. All of the countries surveyed,
expected to be positive in all countries with only
except Germany, are predicting positive hiring activity
Germany reporting a negative Net Employment
in both categories. Employers in the Industry category
Outlook. Strongest prospects for Services are expected
in New Zealand, Canada, United States and Japan
in New Zealand, Canada, United States and Japan.
are most optimistic while employers in Germany,

Net Employment Outlook


Industry Services
Americas Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004
% % % %
Canada -1 23 2 25
Mexico 11 18 12 11
United States 8 24 6 21

Net Employment Outlook


Industry Services
Asia Pacific Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004
% % % %
Australia 13 19 16 18
Hong Kong 2 13 14 17
Japan 3 21 3 20
New Zealand – 37 – 40
Singapore -3 5 9 9

Net Employment Outlook


Industry Services
Europe Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004
% % % %
Austria -2 17 2 6
Belgium 5 9 8 9
France 3 4 6 4
Germany -16 -6 -13 -3
Ireland -14 12 6 8
Italy -3 4 1 6
Netherlands 6 2 4 6
Norway 6 2 12 9
Spain 9 9 10 9
Sweden 7 17 9 18
UK 8 12 9 16

2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport, Storage & Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services, and Public Administration.

17
About the Survey Survey Question
All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or
at your location to change in the three months to the end of
decrease the number of employees in their workforce during
June 2004 as compared to the current quarter?”
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40
years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment
activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of Net Employment Outlook
the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
of focus.
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.
only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.
employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys
and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what Seasonal Adjustment
occurred in the past. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for the
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived United States and United Kingdom to provide additional insight
all of its information from a single question. into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to
review the data without the employment fluctuations that
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the
Manpower’s customer base.
future, as more historical data is compiled.
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than
35,000 public and private employers across 19 national Sectors
economies to measure anticipated employment trends each The industry sectors that are reported for each country in this
quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across report are representative of the local economy. In some areas
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. of the report, we have reported the data in two broad sector
categories: Industry and Services. These categories are
Methodology consistent with standards of other respected international data
sources. The “Industry” category includes sectors such as:
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using
construction, manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The
a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
“Services” category includes wholesale and retail trade;
standards in market research. The research team for the 19
restaurants and hotels; transportation and storage;
countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted
communication; finance; insurance; real estate; other business
includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team; the Research &
services and public administration.
Diagnostics Division of The Empower Group – an independent
operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World and Grupo
IDM. The survey has been structured to be representative of
each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.2%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted by


Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the
margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

18
History of the Survey About Manpower Inc.
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
employment services industry, offering customers a continuum of
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of services to meet their needs throughout the employment and
the United States survey, naming the report the business cycle. The company specializes in permanent,
Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment;
adopts the same forward-looking research format as the training; career transition and organizational consulting services.
United States survey and is the first of its kind in Manpower’s worldwide network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries
Europe. and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook 400,000 customers per year, including small and medium size
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world’s largest
Research methodology is updated to evolve with multinational corporations. The focus of Manpower’s work is on
advancements in the field of market research. raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research business activities. In addition to the Manpower brand, the
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and company operates under the brand names of Right
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries. Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan, Brook Street
and Empower. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
www.manpower.com.
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of
Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial
Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower
Sweden, United Kingdom and United States. Professional brand, the company places contract professionals
on assignment in areas such as information technology,
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
information about Manpower’s US operation can be found at
www.us.manpower.com.

19
2nd Quarter 2004

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey


United States

Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217


Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

© 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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