Exam Syllabus: Paper: Statistics: Page-1 (Outlines of Test)
Paper A: 75 Marks; Paper B: 75; Paper C: (Practical); 50: Total Marks: 200 Paper A (Syllabi and Courses of Reading) Candidates are required to attempt at least two questions from each Section (Section I) DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS (weight 2/10): Meaning of Descriptive and inferential Statistics. Population and sample. Types of variables, Measurement Scales, Sources of Statistical data in Pakistan. Description of data by frequency tables and graphs. Stem and Leaf Plots and Box Plots. Measures of Central Tendency A.M, H.M, G.M Mode, Median, Quantities, Properties of Mean with Proofs. Weighted Arithmetic Mean. Empirical Relation between Mean, Median and Mode. Relative Merits and Demerits of various averages. Measures of Dispersion: Absolute and Relative Measures, Range, Semi-Inter Quartile Range, Mean Deviation, Coefficient of Quartile Deviations, Properties of variance and Standard Deviation with Proofs. Standardized Variables. Moments, moment ratios, Sheppards Correction, Kurtosis and skewness. INDEX NUMBERS AND TIME SERIES (Weight 2/10): 1-Construction and application of wholesale price Index numbers. Fixed and chain base methods. Weighted Index Numbers (Lasperyres Passches Fishers Ideal and Marshall-Edgeworth Indices). Tests for consistency of Index Numbers Construction of Consumer Price Index Numbers. Sensitive Price Indicator. 2- Time Series: Components of a time series. Analysis of time series, Measurement of secular trend and seasonal variations by various methods. Deseasonalization of data. SIMPLE REGRESSION AND CORRELATION (Weight 1/10): Logic of regression and correlation. Scatter diagram, Simple linear regression model, least square estimators and their properties, standards error of estimate, Meaning and application of linear correlation coefficient. Properties of correlation coefficient correlation for bi-variable frequency distribution. Meaning derivation and application of Rank Correlation, Tied ranks. (Section II) PROBABILITY (Weight 2/10): Random experiments, Sample Space and events, Counting Techniques, Definitions and axioms of probability. Basic Laws of Probability. Independence of events. Bayes Theorem (proof not required) and its application. DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE AND DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS (Weight 2/10): Random variable, Distribution Function, Discrete random variable. Probability distribution of discrete random variable. Joint Distribution of two discrete random variables, marginal and conditional distribution, mathematical expectation and it properties, mean, variance and moments. Concept of m.g.f and its properties. Uniform Bernoulli, Binomial, Hyper geometric and Poisson distribution, means, variance and shape of these distributions and their properties. Application of these distributions with examples from various fields, Multinomial distribution (only application) CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE AND CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS (Weight 1/10): Continuous random variables. Probability Distribution of a single continuous random variable, probability density function and distribution function. Mean, variance and moments of continuous random variables. Uniform and Normal Distributions. Means, Variance and shape of these distribution and their properties. Application of these distributions. Normal approximation to the Binomial and Poisson Distribution (only application). Fitting of Normal Distribution by area method. (continued to page 2) Paper: Statistics: Page-2: PAPER B: Candidates are required to attempt at least two questions from each section Section I SAMPLING AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION (Weight 2/10): Sampling designs of Simple random, Stratified, Systematic and Cluster sampling. Judgment and Quota sampling. Random Numbers and their uses in sampling. Advantages of sampling. Probability and non-probability sampling, sampling and non-sampling errors, calculation of sample of mean, proportion and variance of simple random samples and stratified random samples. Sampling distributions of a statistic and its standard error. Distribution of sample mean, sample proportion, difference between two proportions and means. Central limit theorem with illustration (proof not required). STATISTICAL INFERENCE (Weight 2/10): Nature of statistical inference, point and interval estimation of parameter, properties of point estimator, confidence interval and its interpretation. Null and alternative hypothesis, simple and composite hypothesis. Type I and Type II errors. Level of significance. P-value and power of test (only concept and definition). Acceptance and rejection regions, one sided and two sided tests for paired and un paired observations. Inference about proportion and difference between two proportions. Determination of sample size. (Application of Normal distribution and t-distribution) INFERENCE ABOUT VARIANCE: Introduction and application of chi-square distribution: Interval estimation and test of hypothesis about population variance (interval estimation for variance-single sample) Introduction and application of Fdistribution: Test of Hypothesis for equality of two variances. Section II ANALYSIS OF COUNT DATA (Weight 1/10): Chi-square test of independence, CI Chi-square test of goodness of fit, Chi-square test of homogeneity. REGRESSION AND CORRELATION ANALYSIS: Multiple Linear regression with two regressors, Coefficient of multiple determination, Partial and multiple correlation up to three variables. Inference of simple correlation and regression, partial and multiple correlation. Interval estimates and tests of hypothesis about parameters, mean prediction and individual prediction. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE AND BASIC EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS: Analysis of variance for one-way classification. Multiple comparison test, least significant difference and Duncans multiple range test. Basic principles of experimental design. Complete randomized, randomized complete Block and Latin Square Designs. Descriptions, Layout, Statistical analysis, advantages and limitations of these designs. Application of these designs (Analysis of all these designs for single Observation in each Cell). PAPER C (Practical) Candidates are required to attempt one question from each section Section I: One question from each section of Paper A should be set. Section II : One question from each section Paper B should be set. Each Question of 18 marks i.e. 18 + 18= 36 Marks+ Practical Note Book = 05 Marks+ Viva = 09 Marks Total: 50 Marks
Punjab University BA ECONOMICS Syllabus (A & B Papers)
Page - 1 (Outlines of Test) Paper Paper
A: B:
Basic Micro
Mathematics and Economics and Total Marks:
Micro Economics Economic Development 200
of
Pakistan
100 100
(Syllabi and Courses of Reading)
PAPER - A: BASIC MATHEMATICS AND MICRO ECONOMICS Section I : BASIC MATHEMATICS 1.FUNCTIONS AND EQUATIONS: (i) Functions: Relation vs Function Variable, Constants and Parameters Types of Functions: Linear and Non-Linear, Exponential and Logarithmic, Graphical representation of Functions. Examples from Micro and Macro Economics. (ii) Equations: Equation vs Identities. Solution of Linear, Quadratic and Simultaneous Equations. Equilibrium Analysis in Economics, Partial Market Equilibrium, Linear and Quadratic Models, Equilibrium in National Income 2.DERIVATIVES: The concepts of Derivative. The concepts of Limit and it relevance to Derivatives. Slope vs Elasticity of Function. Rules of Differentiation: A constant, A power, Sum-Difference, Product and quotient Function Rule, The derivation of Marginal Quantities in Economics, The calculation of Elasticity of Demand and supply. 3.MAXIMA AND MINIMA OF FUNCTION: Optimum values vs Extreme Relative Maxima and Minima, Point of Inflexion, Criteria for Relative Maxima and Minima. First order condition and second order condition, Constrained Optimization, Problems of optimization in Economics. Profit, Utility and Revenue Maximization, Cost Minimization. The Equilibrium of Consumer and a Firm, The least Cost Combination of Inputs. Section II: MICRO ECONOMICS 1.THE NATURE AND IMPORTANCE OF MICRO ECONOMICS: Basic problems of Micro Economic Theory. The Determination of Output composition. The Allocation of Resources. The Distribution of the Product and Maintenance and Expansion to the Productive Capacity of the Economy. Market Economy and the Treatment of Basic Economic Problems. The relative importance of Market Mechanism in Capitalism. Socialism and Islamic Economic System. 2.THE THEORY OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR: The Utility Theory of Consumer Behaviour. Indifference Curies, Analysis Indifference Curves and Marginal rate of Substitution, Consumer Equilibrium, Income Substitution and Price Effect of a Normal, Inferior and Giffen Good, Derivation of Demand Curve from Price-Consumption Curve. Revnaled Preference Theory. Price Income and Cross Elasticities of Demand and their Measurement. 3.THE THEORY OF PRODUCTION, COSTS AND REVENUES: The Concept of Production Function, Iso-quant and Iso-Cost Curves. Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution. Optimal Combination of Resources. The Cost and Revenues of a Firm. 4. THE THEORY OF FIRM BEHAVIOUR AND MARKET ORGANIZATION: (a) Perfect Competition: Assumption of Perfect Competition. Equilibrium of a Firm and Industry during Short and Long Periods. Short and long Period Supply Curve of a Firm and Industry. MONOPOLY: The Nature and Extent of Monopoly, short-run and Long-run Equilibrium under Pure Monopoly. Dumping and Price Discrimination. Welfare effects of Monopolies. (b) Imperfect Competition: Monopolistic Composition and its Main Characteristics. Short-run and Long-run Equilibrium under Monopolistic Competition. Pricing and Output Determination under Obigopoly. Price Leadership and Cartels. Inefficiencies due to imperfect Competition. 5. PRICING AND EMPLOYMENT RESOURCES: The Marginal Productivity Theory of Resource Pricing. The Modern Theory of Resource pricing and Employment. The input Demand Curve of Firm with One Variable Resource. The Demand Curve of a Firm with Several Variable resources. The Market Demand Curve. The Supply Curve of Resources. Resources Pricing under perfect Competition, Monopoly and Monopsony. NOTE: In paper A four questions will be set from Section I and six questions from Section- II. The candidates will be required to attempt five questions, selecting two from Section I and three questions from Section II.
Punjab University BA Paper ECONOMIC SYLLABUS
Page - 2 PAPER B: MACRO ECONOMICS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF PAKISTAN Section I : MACRO ECONOMICS 1.A FRAME-WORK FOR MACRO ECONOMICS Macro Economics vs Micro Economics. Macro Economic Problems: Unemployment, Inflation and Growth. 2.DETERMINATION OF NATIONAL INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT (Two sector Economy) (i) The Classical Theory Employment: Says Law of Markets. Aggregate Demand and the Quantity Theory of Real Wage Function. Classical Macro Economic System, its Diagramatic representation. Keynesian Critique of Classical system. (ii) Keynesian Theory of Income and Employment: Equilibrium Level of National Income: Saving and Investment Approach: Consumption and Investment Approach. Relation Between Investment and Income. Investment Multiplier. Inflationary and Deflationay Gaps and Full Employment level. 3. DETERMINANTS OF NATIONAL INCOME (Two Sector Economy) (i) Consumption: Comsumption and Saving Function. Keynesian Psychological Law of consumption. Determinants of Consumption. Explanation of Observed Relationship between consumption and Income: Relative Income, Permanent Income and Life Theories of Consumption. (ii) Investment: Investment and Capital Determinants of Investment, Marginal Efficiency Capital (MEC) and Marginal Efficiency of Investment (MEI). Optimal Level Investment. The Principles of Acceleration. 4. GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM IN THE GOODS AND MONEY MARKET The Derivation of IS Function in the Goods Market. The Slope and Position and its curve. The derivation of LM Function in the Money Market. The Demand and Supply of Money. The interest Rate. The Slope and Position of LM Curve. Simultaneous Equilibrium in the goods and Money Market. Adjustment towards Equilibrium. 5. FLUCTUATION IN NATIONAL INCOME: Business Cycles and their main Features. Interaction of Multiplier and Accrator. Counter-Cyclical Measures. 6. MONETARY INFLUENCE ON INCOME DETERMINATION Monetary Policy: Its Nature, Objectives and Instruments. Influence of Policy on Income Determination (by affecting c+I+G). Money and Inflation Stagflation 7. FISCAL POLICY AND INCOME DETERMINATION INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INCOME DETERMINATION Theory of Comparative Advantage. Classical and Ohlin Theory. Balance of Payments. Disequilibrium and Adjustment Policies. Devaluation and Revaluation, Depreciation and Appreciation of Exchange Rate. Determination of National Income in a Four Sector Economy. The Foreign Trade Multiplier and changes in the level of Income. Section II: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF PAKISTAN 1.THE CONCEPT AND MEASUREMENT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Main Features of Developing Economy with Special Reference to Pakistan 2.AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY Relative Importance of Agricultural and Industrial Sectors in the Economic Development of Pakistan. 3.ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PLANNING Need and Role of Development Planning. Market Imperfections and Price Distortion, Short Term, Medium Term and long term Plans. Formulation of Objective, Targets and Strategy in Development Planning. 4. ECONOMIC PLANNING IN PAKISTAN Planning Machinery in Pakistan. Justification of Economic Planning in Pakistan. Factors Probibitive in Effective Planning in Pakistan. Main Contours and Critical Evaluation of the Last Year Plan (Seventh Five Year Plan) with reference to its Strategies, Objectives, Targets and Achievements, Role of Annual Planning in Economic Development. 5. RESOURCES MOBILIZATION FOR PLANNED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN (i) Financial Resources: Domestic and Foreign Resources of Pakistan. Extent Pakistans Dependence on Foreign and Debt Servicing Problem. (ii) Human Resources: Human Resource Mobilization in Pakistan. The Need and Role of Man Power Planning. NOTE: In Paper B six question will be set from Section 1 and four questions from Section II. The candidates will be required to attempt five questions, selecting three question from Section I and two questions from Section - II
FOR THE MODEL (1-B) (1-0.2B) XT (1-0.5B) ZT FIND MMSE FORECASTS FOR ONE AND TWO STEPS AHEAD AND SHOW THAT A RECURSIVE EXPANSION FOR THE FORECAST FOR THREEE OR MORE STEPS AHEAD