US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP: Yardeni Research, Inc

US Economic Indicators:
Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.
May 11, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Profits
Profits (NIPA)
Profits (NIPA vs. S&P)
Retained Earnings & Dividends
Cash Flow
Profit Margin
May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP
1-2
3-8
9
10
11
12-13

www.yardeni.com
Profits
Figure 1.
6375
5675
4975
4275
3575
6375
5675
4975
4275
3575
NOMINAL GDP & AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS

(1960=100, ratio scale)
Q4
2875
2875
2175
2175
1475
1475
775
775
7% Growth Path*
Nominal GDP
After-Tax Corporate Profits

Reported to IRS
From Current Production**
yardeni.com
75
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
75
18
* Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.

** Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits
tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 2.
183
153
123
183
153
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE

(dollars, ratio scale)
Apr
Q4
7%
93
93
S&P 500 Earnings Per Share*
63
123
63
Reported
(4-quarter sum)
Operating**
(4-quarter sum)
33
33
Forward***
5%
yardeni.com
3
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
* Growth paths are compounded monthly to yield 5% and 7% annually.

** Excludes write-offs.
*** 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of consensus earnings estimates for current and next year.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 1 / May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

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Profits
Figure 3.
6375
5675
4975
4275
3575
6375
5675
4975
4275
3575
NOMINAL GDP & AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS

(1960=100, ratio scale)
Q4
2875
2875
2175
2175
1475
1475
775
775
7% Growth Path*
After-Tax Corporate Profits

Reported to IRS
yardeni.com
75
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
75
18
* Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.

** Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits
Figure 4.
220
190
160
220
190
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS*

(ratio scale)
160
130
100
5/5
7%
Growth Rate**
130
100
70
70
40
40
yardeni.com
10
10
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly.
** Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

www.yardeni.com
Profits (NIPA)
Figure 5.
2810
2410
2010
1610
CORPORATE PROFITS FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION*

(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
Q4
2810
2410
2010
1610
1210
1210
810
810
Total Profits
410
410
Pre-Tax
After-Tax
yardeni.com
10
10
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits
Figure 6.
3010
2510
2010
CORPORATE PROFITS REPORTED TO IRS*

(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
Q4
1510
1010
510
3010
2510
2010
1510
1010
Total Profits
Pre-Tax
510
After-Tax
yardeni.com
10
10
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
* Excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits

www.yardeni.com
Profits (NIPA)
Figure 7.
100
100
CORPORATE PROFITS FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION*

(yearly percent change)
Total Profits
After-Tax (-15.0)
50
50
0
Q4
yardeni.com
-50
-50
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Figure 8.
150
150
CORPORATE PROFITS REPORTED TO IRS*

100
100
Total Profits
After-Tax (-3.6)
50
50
Q4
yardeni.com
-50
-50
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
* Excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits

www.yardeni.com
Profits (NIPA)
Figure 9.
1400
1400
CORPORATE PROFITS BY INDUSTRY*

(billion dollars, saar)
1200
1200
Q4
Pre-Tax By Industry
1000
1000
Nonfinancial
Financial
800
800
Net Receipts from the Rest of the World

600
600
400
400
200
200
0
yardeni.com
-200
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
-200
18
Figure 10.
100
100
CORPORATE PROFITS BY INDUSTRY*

(as a percent of corporate profits)
80
80
Q4
60
60
Pre-Tax By Industry
Nonfinancial
40
40
Financial
Net Receipts from the Rest of the World
20
20
yardeni.com
-20
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
-20
18

www.yardeni.com
Profits (NIPA)
Figure 11.
550
500
550
MEASURES OF PROFITS IN FINANCIAL SECTOR

(billion dollars)
450
500
450
Pre-Tax Profits: Financial*

(saar)
400
S&P 500 Financials

12-month Forward Earnings
350
300
400
Q4
350
300
FDIC Commercial Banks: Net Income

(annualized, nsa)
250
250
5/5
200
Q4
150
200
150
100
100
50
50
-50
-50
-100
-150
-100
yardeni.com
-150
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Quarterly Banking Profile.
Figure 12.
40
40
FINANCIAL PROFITS SHARE OF TOTAL PROFITS
35
35
30
30
25
25
Q4
5/5
20
15
10
20
15
Financial Profits as a Percent of

Pre-Tax Corporate Profits
10
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*

5
-5
-5
-10
-10
yardeni.com
-15
-15
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
* Using consensus 12-month forward earnings forecasts.
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

www.yardeni.com
Profits (NIPA)
Figure 13.
750
700
750
CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD*

700
Q4
650
650
600
600
Rest of World Profits
550
550
Net
500
500
450
Receipts
450
400
Payments
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
-50
0
yardeni.com
95
96
97
-50
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Figure 14.
60
55
60
CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD

(as a percent of pre-tax corporate profits*)
55
Rest of World Profits
50
50
Net
45
45
Receipts
40
40
Payments
35
35
30
30
25
25
Q4
20
20
15
15
10
10
0
-5
0
yardeni.com
60
62
64
66
-5
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18

www.yardeni.com
Profits (NIPA)
Figure 15.
50
40
15
CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF WORLD vs.

GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
10
30
5
20
Feb
10
0
Q4
-10
Receipts*
0
-5
-10
-20
OECD Industrial Production
-15
-30
-40
-20
95
50
40
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
50
CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF

WORLD vs. US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Q4
Mar
-10
Receipts*
-20
-10
-20
Exports
-30
-30
-40
-40
95
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
30
CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF

WORLD vs. TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR
20
ROW Profits Receipts*
10
Q4Apr
-10
-20
Trade Weighted Dollar

yardeni.com
95
96
97
-30
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Census Bureau and OECD.

www.yardeni.com
Profits (NIPA vs. S&P)

Figure 16.
2000
1800
2000
CORPORATE PROFITS IN GDP & S&P 500*

(billion dollars)
1800
Q4
1600
1600
NIPA After-Tax Profits (saar)
1400
1400
Based on Tax Returns*
1200
1200
1000
1000
Q1
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
S&P 500
Net Income
(Actual*4)
-200
-400
-400
Operating
-600
-600
Reported
-800
-1000
-200
-800
yardeni.com
95
96
97
-1000
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
* Excluding IVA & CCadj.

** Including IVA & CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation
to the current cost measures used in GDP.
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Standard & Poors Corporation.
Figure 17.
35
30
35
S&P 500 OPERATING VS REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE

(dollars)
30
25
25
Q1
Q4
20
20
15
15
10
10
S&P Operating
-5
-5
S&P Reported
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
yardeni.com
-25
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
-25
17
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation.

www.yardeni.com
Retained Earnings & Dividends

Figure 18.
1000
1000
UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS WITH IVA & CCAdj

800
800
600
600
Q4
400
400
200
200
yardeni.com
0
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 19.
1200
1200
DIVIDENDS WITH IVA & CCAdj

1000
1000
Q1
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
yardeni.com
0
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18

www.yardeni.com
Cash Flow
Figure 20.
2820
2420
2020
1620
CORPORATE CASH FLOW
2820
2420
2020
1620
Q4
(ratio scale, billion dollars, saar)
1220
1220
820
820
420
420
Corporate
Cash Flow* (2022.5)
Economic Depreciation** (1544.3)
Tax-Reported Depreciation*** (1221.3)
20
yardeni.com
60
62
64
66
20
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
* After-tax retained earnings plus tax-reported depreciation.

** Corporate capital consumption allowances.
*** Corporate capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment.
Figure 21.
200
150
200
INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT*
150
100
100
Q4
50
50
-50
-50
-100
-100
-150
-150
-200
250
-200
250
150
CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENT*
Tax-Reported > Economic

Depreciation
150
50
50
-50
-50
Tax-Reported < Economic

Depreciation
-150
-250
-150
-250
Q1
-350
-450
-350
yardeni.com
60
62
64
66
-450
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
* These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost
measures used in GDP.

www.yardeni.com
Profit Margin
Figure 22.
16
16
PRE-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION*
14
14
As a Percent of National Income

As a Percent of Nominal GDP
Q4
12
12
10
10
6
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
* Includes IVA & CCAdj. These two adjustments restate the historical-cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and
depreciation to the current-cost measures used in GDP.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Figure 23.
12
12
CORPORATE PROFITS MARGINS IN GDP

(after-tax profits as a percent of nominal GDP)
10
10
Q4
Based on Tax Returns* (9.0)

Based on Current Production** (7.6)
yardeni.com
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* Excluding IVA & CCadj.
** Including IVA & CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation
to the current cost measures used in GDP.

www.yardeni.com
Profit Margin
Figure 24.
19
19
18
18
PROFIT MARGIN* FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION

(percent)
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
All Corporations
13
Nonfinancial Corporations
Q4
14
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
Q4
3
yardeni.com
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
* After-tax profits including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj) divided by Gross Value Added
of Corporate Business.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which determined that a peak in business activity occurred
in the U.S. economy in March 2001.
Figure 25.
16
100
AFTER-TAX PROFIT MARGIN

& CAPACITY UTILIZATION
After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate

Profit Margin
14
95
Capacity Utilization: All Industries

12
90
10
85
Q4
80
Mar
75
70
yardeni.com
65
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Source: Federal Reserve Board and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.yardeni.com
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US Economic Indicators:

Corporate Profits in GDP

May 11, 2016

Dr. Edward Yardeni

Please visit our sites at

thinking outside the box

May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.

NOMINAL GDP & AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS

After-Tax Corporate Profits

* Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.

S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share*

* Growth paths are compounded monthly to yield 5% and 7% annually.

Page 1 / May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.

NOMINAL GDP & AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS

After-Tax Corporate Profits

* Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS*

Page 2 / May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.

CORPORATE PROFITS FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION*

CORPORATE PROFITS REPORTED TO IRS*

Page 3 / May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.

CORPORATE PROFITS FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION*

CORPORATE PROFITS REPORTED TO IRS*

Page 4 / May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.

CORPORATE PROFITS BY INDUSTRY*

Net Receipts from the Rest of the World

CORPORATE PROFITS BY INDUSTRY*

Page 5 / May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.

MEASURES OF PROFITS IN FINANCIAL SECTOR

Pre-Tax Profits: Financial*

S&P 500 Financials

FDIC Commercial Banks: Net Income

FINANCIAL PROFITS SHARE OF TOTAL PROFITS

Financial Profits as a Percent of

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*

Page 6 / May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.

CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD*

Rest of World Profits

CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD

Rest of World Profits

Page 7 / May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.

CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF WORLD vs.

(yearly percent change)

OECD Industrial Production

CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF

(yearly percent change)

CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF

ROW Profits Receipts*

Trade Weighted Dollar

Page 8 / May 11, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: Corporate Profits in GDP

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Profits (NIPA vs. S&P)

CORPORATE PROFITS IN GDP & S&P 500*

NIPA After-Tax Profits (saar)