International Strategy 2015 01

2015 | (.
1)
(. 3-8)
Eurobank Equities
Research
(. 11)
|
(. 17)
(. 20)
| (. 21)
|
(. 34)
2014 | (. 48)
|
29 2015
2015

2014 ,
,
,
(-, ).
,

, .
,
50% .
2015
,

( , -
).
2015.

, ,
( )

. ,

,

. ,
,
.
.
,

. ,
. ,
(+9% 2015)

. o Stoxx 600
15.3x 2015 21%

.
Fed, ,

2015
.
(+4%)
5% . ,
,
3.2%. S&P 500 17x
2015 18%
,
.
1
|
29 2015

1)
( ), 2)
(), 3) ()
. Nike <NKE
US>, Walt Disney <DIS US>, General Motors <GM US>, Bank of America <BAC US>, Boeing
<BA US> Micron Technology <MU US>. Intesa Sanpaolo <ISP
IM>, Volkswagen <VOW3 GY>, Vodafone <VOD LN>, LVMH <MC FP>, BASF <BAS GY>,
Carrefour <CA FP>, International Consolidated Airlines <IAG LN>, Klepierre <LI FP>
Alcatel Lucent <ALU FP>.

,
,

. ,
,

,
( )
(
).
|
29 2015

2014

,
-

Fed
2014

2015-

2015

2015
: .

17.1x 2015,
18%
.

15.3x 2015, 21%
.
-
,

11.9x 2015, 6%
.
|
29 2015
.
.
Beta
BANK OF AMERICA
US
Banks
USD
143,448
10.9
1.8%
1.3
MERCK & CO
US
Medical-Drugs
USD
156,877
18.0
2.8%
0.6
WALT DISNEY CO
US
Multimedia
USD
140,014
20.1
0.9%
1.1
BOEING CO/THE
US
Aerospace/Defense
USD
82,254
15.8
2.2%
1.1
NIKE INC -CL B
US
Athletic Footwear
USD
72,476
26.8
1.1%
0.8
GENERAL MOTORS C
US
Auto-Cars/Light Trucks
USD
47,257
12.7
3.6%
1.6
MICRON TECH
US
Electronic Compo-Semicon
USD
28,666
8.4
0.1%
1.6
INTESA SANPAOLO
IT
Banks
EUR
43,404
23.5
2.3%
1.3
VOLKSWAGEN-PREF
DE
EUR
95,311
9.1
2.4%
1.1
VODAFONE GROUP
GB
Cellular Telecom
GBp
83,234
40.6
4.8%
1.1
LVMH MOET HENNES
FR
Textile-Apparel
EUR
73,136
21.1
2.2%
1.0
BASF SE
DE
Chemicals-Diversified
EUR
70,686
14.0
3.6%
1.2
CARREFOUR SA
FR
Food-Retail
EUR
20,728
18.3
2.4%
1.1
INTL CONS AIRLIN
GB
Airlines
GBp
15,134
18.4
0.0%
1.5
KLEPIERRE
FR
REITS-Diversified
EUR
12,647
20.3
3.8%
0.7
ALCATEL-LUCENT
FR
Telecommunication Equip
EUR
8,597
NM
0.0%
1.3
18.5
2.1%
1.2

: Bloomberg. 27 2015
EUR
P/E
|
29 2015

(. 21)
,
,
.
Nike <NKE US> 44%
( )
( ).

(Athleisure) brand names
. ,
. ,

.
General Motors <GM US> (
2014
).
,
.
,
/SUVs . (
)
.
Media Disney <DIS US>. 75%
& . Disney ,

.

.
Bank of America
<BAC US>.
,
2015
. ,
. .
Micron Technology <MU US>.
,
(smartphones, tablets),
wearable
technology (. smartwatches).

.
.
|
29 2015
Boeing <BA US>
.
$490

787
2015 .

.
,
, (
) .
, Merck
<MRK US>
pipeline FDA,
( )

.
BANK OF AMERICA
MERCK & CO
WALT DISNEY CO
BOEING CO/THE
NIKE INC -CL B
GENERAL MOTORS C
MICRON TECH
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
Diversified Banking Inst

Medical-Drugs
Multimedia
Aerospace/Defense
Athletic Footwear
Electronic Compo-Semicon
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
166,686
179,092
160,972
95,583
83,240
54,146
33,418
15.9
62.8
95.0
134.1
96.4
33.7
31.0
.
*
18.4
64.7
98.7
152.0
104.4
40.3
42.3
+16.1%
+3.0%
+4.0%
+13.4%
+8.4%
+19.7%
+36.3%
: Bloomberg. * - - Bloomberg.
. PE 2015
. EV/ EBITDA
11.2
BANK OF AMERICA
MERCK & CO
WALT DISNEY CO
BOEING CO/THE
NIKE INC -CL B
GENERAL MOTORS C
MICRON TECH
: Bloomberg.
18.0
20.3
16.1
27.1
12.8
8.6
11.9
11.7
10.3
16.6
3.6
5.0
. PBV
0.7
. ROE (%)
6.8
. . . %
1.7%
4.0
3.6
6.6
7.1
1.4
2.8
22.7
17.7
39.4
27.3
11.5
31.2
2.8%
0.9%
2.2%
1.1%
3.6%
0.1%
YTD
%
-11.4%
+10.6%
+0.8%
+3.1%
+0.2%
-3.5%
-11.4%
|
29 2015

, 2008
2012
. ,

( ).
.
,

.
Klepierre <LI FP>
.
Corio,
(, , , ,
, ).
,

.
Carrefour <CA FP>,
80% .
,
. (12% ).
Vodafone <VOD LN>
.

5%.

International Consolidated Airlines
Group <IAG LN> (British Airways).
Intesa <ISP IM>,

.
Intesa, 13%
11%.

Volkswagen
<VOW3 GY> , BASF <BAS GY>
LVMH <MC FP> .
, Alcatel Lucent <ALU FP>,
.
Volkswagen ,
premium (Porsche, Audi) (Skoda, Seat),
. Scania Man
.
|
29 2015
BASF (55% ),

.

( 20% ).
4%.
LVMH ,

.

2%.
Alcatel Lucent 6

, .

.
INTESA SANPAOLO
IT
Commer Banks Non-US
EUR
EUR
43,404
VOLKSWAGEN-PREF
VODAFONE GROUP
LVMH MOET HENNES
BASF SE
CARREFOUR SA
INTL CONS AIRLIN
KLEPIERRE
ALCATEL-LUCENT
DE
GB
FR
DE
FR
GB
FR
FR
Cellular Telecom
Textile-Apparel
Food-Retail
Airlines
REITS-Diversified
Telecommunication Equip
EUR
GBp
EUR
EUR
EUR
GBp
EUR
EUR
95,311
83,234
73,136
70,686
20,728
15,134
12,647
8,597
2.6
.
*
2.7
+4.3%
YTD
%
+7.6%
201.4
235.2
144.1
77.0
28.2
556.0
41.2
3.0
210.8
229.2
140.6
75.8
29.2
546.4
39.5
3.3
+4.6%
-2.6%
-2.4%
-1.6%
+3.5%
-1.7%
-4.2%
+9.4%
+9.1%
+5.6%
+8.9%
+10.1%
+11.5%
+14.4%
+15.3%
+2.6%
: Bloomberg. * - - Bloomberg.
. PE
. EV/
2015
EBITDA
INTESA SANPAOLO
22.7
VOLKSWAGEN-PREF
VODAFONE GROUP
LVMH MOET HENNES
BASF SE
CARREFOUR SA
INTL CONS AIRLIN
KLEPIERRE
ALCATEL-LUCENT
9.1
40.6
21.1
14.0
18.3
18.4
20.3
nm
: Bloomberg. * , Intesa
8.2
7.3
11.2
8.3
7.5
6.4
27.0
8.0
. PBV
1.0
. ROE
%
3.7
.
. %
2.3%
1.1
0.9
2.7
2.6
2.5
3.5
3.3
3.1
11.9
3.3
12.2
17.9
13.0
18.4
7.2
nm
2.4%
4.8%
2.2%
3.6%
2.4%
0.0%
3.8%
0.0%
Core Tier 1
Cap ratio
13%*
|
29 2015

2015 .
(
),
Fed ( Fed
),
( )

,
2009,
.

6.0
10.0
5.0
8.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15
S&P 500 Div Yield
0.0
-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15
10yr Treasury Yield
Euro Stoxx Div Yield
Eurozone Corp A yield
: Bloomberg
S&P500 ( 2%)
9.0
10.0
8.0
9.0
7.0
8.0
6.0
7.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
-07 -08
-09 -10 -11 -12
S&P 500 Div Yield

: Bloomberg
-13 -14 -15
US Corp A yield
-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15
S&P 500 Earn. Yield
US Corp A yield
|
29 2015

,

.
S&P 500
2%.
(
-) .
,
.
, ,
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
-12
-12
-13
Russell 1000 Dynamic

: Bloomberg
10
-13
-14
-14
-15
Russell 1000 Defensive
600
-12
-12
-13
STXE6OptCyc $P
-13
-14
-14
STXE6OptDef $P
-15
|
29 2015

2015,

. ( 17)
,

.
,
.
, MSCI
Emerging Markets premium
.

2015 PE
PE . 5
17.1
14.5
S&P 500
15.3
12.7
Stoxx 600
15.4
19.9
Topix
11.9
11.2
MSCI Emerging
Premium / Discount (%)

18%
21%
-22%
6%
: Bloomberg

,

,
.
2
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-09
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
-09
-10
VIX- S&P 500 Volatility Index
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
VSTOXX - Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility Index
: Bloomberg

vs
vs
0.90
0.90
0.80
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.30
-08
0.30
-09
: Bloomberg
11
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
-08
-09
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
|
29 2015
Portugal
India
Thailand
Turkey
Hong-Kong
Shanghai
Argentina
Czech
Malaysia
Taiwan
Indonesia
Korea
S.Africa
Hungary
Poland
Serbia
China (H-shs)
Chile
Mexico
Romania
Russia
Bulgaria
Brazil
9.9%
Germany
8.9%
Italy
8.3%
France
8.1%
STOXX 50
8.0%
E-STOXX50
7.3%
Netherlands
7.1%
Great Britain
3.9%
MSCI emerging
3.4%
Spain
3.0%
2.8%
Austria
Australia
2.5%
1.8%
Japan
Canada
1.1%
0.8%
NASDAQ
S&P500
-0.1%
Russell 2000
-0.3%
DOW JONES
-0.8%
Greece
-6.0%
Swiss
-6.9%
7.5%
6.0%
6.0%
5.1%
3.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
1.9%
1.9%
1.7%
1.3%
0.8%
0.5%
0.4%
-0.4%
-0.9%
-1.2%
-2.4%
-4.4%
-4.5%
: Bloomberg
'
-0.3%
'
-0.3%
4.1%
: Bloomberg.
12
-3.4%
13.4%
8.7%
4.2%
-0.2%
12.0%
-1.0%
-1.8%
4.2%
2.3%
9.9%
-1.3%
7.8%
6.1%
11.1%
4.5%
2.1%
|
29 2015

2015
+2.8% 2.4% 2014,
3.2% 2.4%
2014.
, 1.1% 0.8% 2014. ,
.
,
.
2015
7.0%
2015
7.3%
2.8%
2014
3.2%
2.8%
3.2%
2.4%
1.1%
2.4%
0.2%
1.0%
0.8%
H...
(MO)*
: Bloomberg. * , , , , , .
3.4
1.6
3.2
1.5
3.0
1.4
2.8
1.3
2.6
1.2
2.4
1.1
2.2
1.0
2.0
0.9
1.8
0.8
1.6
0.7
0.6
1.4
-13
-13
-14
US GDP est 2015

: Bloomberg
13
-14
-14
US GDP est 2014
-15
-13
-13
-14
EZ GDP est 2015
-14
-14
EZ GDP est 2014
-15
|
29 2015

,

, (
) .
50% ( 17),
.

(%)
2014 (%)
H...
0.25
0.25
0.10
0.10
2.50
2.50
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.50
10
(%)
2014
2.7
0.6
4.1
2.4
2.7
10
(%)
1.8
0.3
2.6
1.5
1.5
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
1.7
2.3
3.8
3.7
5.0
0.4
0.6
1.5
1.4
2.4
6.00
5.50
10.5
7.00
3.50
2.50
10.00
5.60
17.00
12.3
6.75
3.00
2.00
7.80
4.5
8.2
10.9
8.7
6.6
3.5
10.2
3.5
13.7
11.8
7.7
5.3
2.3
7.0
: Bloomberg. *CBR key rate
,
. ,

2015 .

(
).

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan 15
Apr 15
July 15
Oct 15
Fed
: Bloomberg
14
Jan 16
ECB
Apr 16
BoJ
July 16
BoE
Oct 16
Jan 17
|
29 2015
Fed
FED
Bank of England
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.5
3.0
6.0
450
5.0
400
4.0
350
3.0
300
2.0
250
2.0
1.0
200
1.5
0.0
4.0
2.0
3.5
1.0
3.0
0.0
2.5
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-09
-10
-11
-12
US CPI yoy%
-13
-14
-15
-09
Fed BS (USDtr)
150
-10
-11
UK CPI yoy%
-12
-13
-14
-15
BoE Balance Sheet (GBP bn)
: Bloomberg
,

1.1 , 60 ,
. 2014

(TLTROs).
3
3.5
3.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.5
1.5
2.0
1.0
1.5
0.5
1.0
0.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-09
-10
-11
Eurozone CPI % yoy

: Bloomberg
15
-12
-13
-14
-15
ECB Balance Sheet (EURtr)
-09
-10
-11
-12
-13
5y inflation linked swap
-14
-15
|
29 2015

80 yen
( 2014 50 yen ),
2% (
).

4.0
330
3.0
280
2.0
230
1.0
0.0
180
-1.0
130
-2.0
-3.0
80
-09 -09 -10 -10 -11 -11 -12 -12 -13 -13 -14 -14 -15
Japan Core CPI (excl Fresh Food)
BoJ Balance Sheet (Yen tr)
: Bloomberg
,
- 1.20,
. ,
-0.75% -0.25%.

.
16
|
29 2015

2014
2014 ,
.

(
30 )

.

(USD/bbl)
& ( ). (
)
140
96
1750
130
1700
94
120
1650
110
92
1600
100
90
90
1550
80
1500
88
70
1450
60
86
1400
50
40
-09
84
-10
-11
-12
Brent
-13
WTI
-14
-15
1350
-09
-10
-11
Total oil supply
-12
-13
Total oil demand
-14
-15
Total oil reserves
: Bloomberg

.
30 ,
( )
.
,
,
2015.
(

), .
(
).
.
,
$55-$80 (
$65-$70),
.
, ,
.
17
|
29 2015

100
10500
90
10000
80
9500
70
1950
1750
9000
60
50
40
8500
1550
8000
1350
7500
30
20
7000
10
6500
0
-09
2150
-10
-11
Total oil supply
-12
-13
OPEC Supply
-14
-15
6000
-09
US production
1150
950
-10
-11
US production
-12
-13
-14
750
-15
US onshore oil rigs
: Bloomberg
, ,
.
.

2015 .
(..
),
( ,
) .

,
( ) ( ,
). , - ,
, , , . .

yen
, .
,
, .

: Bloomberg
18
OSE All Share

S&P/TSX
FTSE 100
Ibovespa
S&P 500
Stoxx 600
S&P/ASX 200
30%
21%
15%
11%
8%
5%
5%
%
4.2
1.1
3.9
-2.9
-0.1
8.3
2.5
|
29 2015
,
.

(
)
Oil Services
.

(
).
..
(.. , ),
(.. ),

(.. ,
) .

,
(.. )
(.. ),
( ,
). 2015,

.

(
, )
.

,

.
,
,
( )

.
19
|
29 2015

, ,

,
(
- , .
.

,
.
(
),
(

).
,

( )
( )

. ,
-, ,.

(

).
2015

, ,
25
19
Finns Party
20
: Bloomberg
20
|
29 2015

2015,
3.2% 2.4% 2014
(, , ).

3.2%
2.4%
1.6%
1.5%
0.25%
. 2014
. 2015
. . 2014 . . 2015
: Bloomberg
,
(wealth effect) ,

.
5.6% 6.7%
2014,
( ).
1.7% 2014 Fed 34% 2% (
). 2015 2014,
2-3%.

600
400
11
4.0
10
3.5
3.0
2.5
200
0
-200
-400
-600
6
-800
-1000
-09
2.0
1.5
5
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
1.0
-09
US non farm payrolls

: Bloomberg
21
US Unemployment rate
-10
-11
-12
-13
Avg hourly wages yoy%
-14
-15
|
29 2015
1,200
180
90
6.0
160
80
5.5
140
70
120
60
100
50
80
40
1,100
1,000
900
5.0
4.5
800
700
600
4.0
3.5
500
400
-09
-10
-11
-12
Housing starts
-13
-14
-15
3.0
-09
House prices
-10
-11
-12
% of mortgage refinancing
-13
-14
-15
Avg 30yr mortgage rate
: Bloomberg
2300
4.5
2100
4.0
1900
1700
3.5
1500
3.0
1300
1100
2.5
900
2.0
700
500
-09
1.5
-10
-11
-12
S&P 500 INDEX
-13
-14
-15
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-09
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
US consumption growth (3 mo MA)%
Natl Avg Gasoline Price
: Bloomberg

.
19.0
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
17.0
15.0
13.0
11.0
9.0
7.0
-09
-10
-11
-12
-13
Annual US auto sales

: Bloomberg
22
-14
-15
-09
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
Retail sales growth ex-autos (3 mo MA)%
-15
|
29 2015

, Fed 2014 ,
,
, $4.5.
,

.
2015
( 0.7% 2015 0.25% ).

.
2.79% 2015. ,
, Fed
( )

.
0.26
4.9
4.4
3.9
3.4
0.25
2.9
2.4
1.9
USD tr
Fed ,
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.24
-09
1.4
-10
-11
-12
Fed rate
-13
-14
Fed BS
-15
10yr Treasury Yield
: Bloomberg

2015. ,

. ,
() .
23
|
29 2015
S&P 500
/ S&P500 3.8% 2015
6.5% 2014.
2.9% 2015,
,
.
,
.
,
2015 9.0% 5.4% .
S&P 500
/ S&P 500
6.0%
13.0%
5.4%
11.0%
5.0%
9.0%
3.7%
4.0%
9.0%
7.5%
7.0%
3.1%
2.9%
3.0%
2.0%
Jan2014 Mar2014 May2014 Jul2014 Sept2014 Nov2014 Jan2015
6.5%
5.0%
3.8%
3.0%
Jan2014 Mar2014 May2014 Jul2014 Sept2014 Nov2014 Jan2015
FY 2014e Sales growth
FY 2014e ex energy
FY 2014e EPS growth
FY 2014e EPS ex energy
FY 2015f Sales growth
FY 2015f ex energy
FY 2015f EPS growth
FY 2015f EPS ex energy
: Bloomberg
S&P500
/
140
16
130
14
120
12
110
10
100
90
80
70
60
-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15
Est Sales rebased
Est EPS rebased
-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15
Op. margin
S&P500 net margin
: Bloomberg
S&P500, 17.1x
2015, 18% . ,
2014 (14%) / ( 7%).

(
2015). , S&P500 2015
/.
24
|
29 2015
S&P500 .

13
19
12
18
17
11
16
10
15
14
13
12
11
6
10
EV/12mo EBITDA
Average
1 STDV
Fwd PE
Average
1 STDV
: Bloomberg

,
( ) ,
,
.
,

,
2015.
S&P 500
S&P 500
.
/ 2015
S&P 500
6%
Financials
7%
Info Tech
12%
Health
11%
Energy
-34%
Industrials
9%
Staples
3%
Discretionary
14%
Utilities
2%
Telecoms
5%
Materials
11%

Materials
Telecoms
Utilities
Discretionary
Staples
Industrials
Energy
Health
Info Tech
Financials
S&P 500
-
5.0
10.0
6yr avg PE
15.0
PE 2015
20.0
25.0
: Bloomberg
,

. ,
.
25
|
29 2015

(
) ,
. ,

.
,
34% 2015.
premium

$70-$80/ (
$100 ).

( ..
.. ),
,
,
,
(
).
26
|
29 2015

BANK OF AMERICA
,
.
,
2015.
,
.
BANK OF AMERICA
(.)
19
18
17
16
15
14
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
BAC
US
Banks
USD
145,503
15.8
18.2
14.4
-7.7
P/E .
P/Tangible Book
P/Book
P/Sales
11.1x
1.1x
0.7x
1.8x
Beta
. %
RoE%
Tier 1 ratio%
S&P LT credit rating
1.3
1.8
6.8
13.4
A-
: Bloomberg
BANK OF AMERICA 1 year forward P/BV
BANK OF AMERICA 1 year forward P/E
2.5
30
25
20
1.5
15
1
10
0.5
P/BV
: Bloomberg
27
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
MERCK
,

.
.
MERCK
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
-14
(.)
-14
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
MRK
US
Medical-Drugs
USD
157,596
62.8
63.6
51.8
+19.6
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
18.0x
11.9x
4.0x
4.3x
Beta
. %
EBITDA/ Int. Expense
Ebitda%
0.6
2.8
16.2
29.9
AA
: Bloomberg
MERCK 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
MERCK 1 year forward P/E
16
22
20
14
18
16
12
14
10
12
10
8
6
4
4
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
28
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
WALT DISNEY
. 75%
. Disney ,

.
WALT DISNEY
(.)
100
90
80
70
60
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
DIS
US
Multimedia
USD
141,651
95.0
96.4
69.9
+31.4
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
20.3x
11.7x
3.6x
3.4x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.1
0.9
37.2
28.0
A
: Bloomberg
WALT DISNEY 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
WALT DISNEY 1 year forward P/E
13
22
12
20
11
18
10
9
16
14
12
6
10
5
4
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
29
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
BOEING
$490

787
2015 .

.
,
, (
) .
BOEING
150
140
130
120
110
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
(.)
BA
US
Aerosp/Defense
USD
84,110
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
16.1x
10.3x
6.6x
1.1x
12
12
12 %
134.1
138.5
116.3
-2.4
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.1
2.2
17.8
9.8
A
: Bloomberg
BOEING 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
BOEING 1 year forward P/E
16
35
14
30
12
25
10
20
8
15
6
4
10
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
30
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
NIKE
H , 44%
(
) ( ).

(Athleisure) brand names
. ,
. ,

.
NIKE
110
NKE
US
Athletic Footwear
USD
(.)
73,249
100
90
80
70
60
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
96.4
99.8
69.9
34.0
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
27.1x
16.6x
7.1x
2.8x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
0.8
1.1
#N/A N/A
15.4
AA-
: Bloomberg
NIKE 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
NIKE 1 year forward P/E
18
30
28
16
26
14
24
12
22
20
10
18
16
14
12
10
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
31
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
GENERAL MOTORS

( 40% ).

Ford.

,
.
, /SUVs
. ( to 2014)

.
GENERAL MOTORS
40
(.)
38
36
34
32
30
28
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
GM
US
Autos/Trucks
USD
47,647
33.7
38.2
28.8
-8.3
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
12.8x
3.6x
1.4x
0.3x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.6
3.6
31.7
6.1
BBB-
: Bloomberg
GENERAL MOTORS 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
GENERAL MOTORS 1 year forward P/E
14
13
12
11
10
8
7
-11
-12
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
32
-13
Average
-14
-15
1 STDV
-11
-12
PE
-13
Average
-14
-15
1 STDV
|
29 2015
MICRON
memory chips.
(smartphones, tablets),

wearable technology (. smartwatches).

. .
MICRON
40
(.)
35
30
25
20
-14
-14
-14
-14
12
12
-15 12 %
MU
US
Electronic Compo
USD
29,407
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
8.6x
5.0x
2.8x
2.0x
31.0
36.6
21.0
35.5
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.6
0.1
14.7
34.8
BB
: Bloomberg
MICRON 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
MICRON 1 year forward P/E
14
11.5
11.0
12
10.5
10.0
10
9.5
8
9.0
8.5
8.0
4
7.5
7.0
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
33
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
E
, ,

-.

, 1.1% 2015 . 0.8%
2014.
( , ),

.
,
1.4%
1.1%
0.8%
0.05%
0.4%
. 2014
. 2015
. . 2014 . . 2015
: Bloomberg
,

,
. ,
, ,
.

PMI
120.0
56.0
110.0
54.0
90.0
50.0
0.5
48.0
0.0
80.0
46.0
70.0
44.0
-0.5
42.0
60.0
-10
-11
-12
-13
Eurozone economic confidence

: Bloomberg
34
1.0
52.0
100.0
-09
1.5
-14
-15
-12
-1.0
-12
-13
Eurozone PMI
-13
-14
-14
-15
Eurozone GDP QoQ%
|
29 2015

,
.
.
13.0
4.0
12.0
2.0
3.5
3
2.5
2
11.0
0.0
1.5
10.0
-2.0
0.5
9.0
-4.0
8.0
-0.5
-6.0
7.0
-09
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-1
-09
-15
-10
-11
-12
Eurozone retail sales yoy %
Eurozone unemployment
-13
-14
-15
Eurozone inflation yoy%
: Bloomberg
( )
,
,
-

.
2.5
3.5
3.0
2.0
2.5
EUR Tr
, LTROs
-
9
8
7
6
1.5
2.0
1.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
-09
0.0
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
ECB Main Refinancing Rate

ECB Balance Sheet All Assets
-15
3
2
1
0
-09
-10
-11
Italian 10yr yield
-12
-13
-14
-15
German 10yr yield
Spanish 10yr yield
: Bloomberg
,
,
.
35
|
29 2015
ECB Bank Lending Survey:
45.0
30.0
15.0
0.0
-15.0
-30.0
-45.0
-60.0
-75.0
Exp. change in cons .credit
Exp. change in corp. lending
Exp. change in mortgages
: Bloomberg
,
,
. ,

,
.

14
120
110
12
100
10
90
80
70
60
50
-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15
Est Sales rebased
Est EPS rebased
-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15
Op. margin
Stoxx 600 net margin
: Bloomberg
/ Stoxx 600
9.3% 2015 6.7% 2014,
( 5% )
.

.
36
|
29 2015
Stoxx 600 9.3% 2015
14.0%
13.0%
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
9.3%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.68%
6.0%
5.0%
Jan2014
Mar2014
May2014
Jul2014
FY 2014 EPS growth est
Sept2014
Nov2014
Jan2015
FY 2015 EPS growth est
: Bloomberg
( )
P/E,

(
). , ,
,

.
,
12
18
11
16
10
14
12
10
6
-07
-08
-09
-10
EV/12mo EBITDA
: Bloomberg
37
-11
-12
Average
-13
-14
-15
1 STDV
6
-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15
Fwd PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
,
(+27%),

. ,

.

2014 , 10 ,

2015, .
Santander 7.5
( 8.3% 10%
)
11%.
Stoxx 600
Stoxx 600
.
/ 2015
Stoxx 600
9%
Banks
27%
Financial Services
14%
Insurance
4%
Technology
20%
Health
6%
Energy
-21%
Industrials
14%
Food & Bev
8%
PHC goods
10%
Retail
-4%
Autos & Parts
13%
Construction & Materials
14%
Utilities
2%
Telecoms
2%
Materials
-4%
Chemicals
11%
, , ,

Chemicals
Materials
Telecoms
Utilities
Construction & Materials
Autos & Parts
Retail
Personal&Household goods
Food & Bev
Industrials
Energy
Health
Technology
Insurance
Financial Services
Banks
Stoxx 600
-
5.0
PE 6yr avg
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
PE 2015
: Bloomberg
-
( ) , &
& ( )
,
.

,

, ,
(
45% Stoxx 600), (
)
.
38
|
29 2015

INTESA SANPAOLO
Intesa ,
95% . ,
13% .
.
INTESA SANPAOLO
2.7
(.)
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
ISP
IT
Banks
EUR
43,404
2.6
2.7
1.9
33.9
P/E .
P/Tangible Book
P/Book
P/Sales
23.5x
1.1x
1.0x
2.2x
Beta
. %
RoE%
Tier 1 ratio%
1.3
2.3
3.7
12.2
BBB-
: Bloomberg
INTESA SANPAOLO 1 year forward P/BV
INTESA SANPAOLO 1 year forward P/E
2.5
30
25
20
1.5
15
1
10
0.5
P/BV
: Bloomberg
39
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
VOLKSWAGEN

premium Audi
Porsche Man Scania.
.
.
VOLKSWAGEN
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
-14
-14
VOW3
DE
Auto-cars / Light trucks
EUR
(.) 95,311
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
201.4
206.0
147.4
4.6
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
9.1x
8.2x
1.1x
0.5x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.1
2.4
11.1
14.2
A
: Bloomberg
VOLKSWAGEN 1 year forward EV/EBITDA

10
32
9
27
8
7
22
6
5
17
4
12
3
2
1
0
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
40
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
VODAFONE

( 70% ).
2014 Verizon Wireless
.

.
VODAFONE
310
290
270
250
230
210
190
170
-14
VOD
GB
Cellular Telecom
-14
-14
-14
-15
(.)
GBp
83,234
12
12
12 %
235.2
252.3
179.1
3.5
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
40.6x
7.3x
0.9x
1.6x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.1
4.8
6.3
25.8
A-
: Bloomberg
VODAFONE 1 year forward EV/EBITDA

11
47
42
10
37
9
32
27
22
17
12
5
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
41
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
LVMH

. , 65%

.
(.
45% ).
LVMH
150
MC
FR
Textile-Apparel
EUR
(.) 73,136
140
130
120
110
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
144.1
145.0
109.0
29.6
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
21.1x
11.2x
2.7x
2.4x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.0
2.2
54.2
25.3
A+
: Bloomberg
LVMH 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
LVMH 1 year forward P/E
14
24
13
22
12
20
11
18
10
16
14
8
7
12
10
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
42
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
BASF
( ),
.
,
.
, .
BASF
BAS
DE
EUR
(.) 70,686
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
77.0
88.3
64.3
-0.8
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
14.0x
8.2x
2.6x
0.9x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.2
3.6
14.7
13.9
A+
: Bloomberg
BASF 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
BASF 1 year forward P/E
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
43
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
CARREFOUR
H ,
80% .

.
CARREFOUR
Food-Retail
(.)
30
28
26
24
12
12
12 %
22
20
-14
-14
-14
-14
CA
FR
EUR
20,728
28.2
29.6
21.4
10.5
-15
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
18.3x
7.5x
2.5x
0.3x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.1
2.4
7.8
5.1
BBB+
: Bloomberg
CARREFOUR 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
CARREFOUR 1 year forward P/E
10
23
21
19
8
17
15
13
11
9
4
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
44
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES

, British Airways
Iberia. ,
Air Lingus.
INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES
Airlines
(.)
550
500
450
400
350
300
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
12
12
12 %
IAG
GB
GBp
15,134
556.0
567.5
306.4
38.8
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
18.4x
6.4x
3.5x
0.8x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.5
0.0
7.1
10.4
#N/A N/A
: Bloomberg
IAG 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
IAG 1 year forward P/E
7.5
35
30
6.5
6
25
5.5
20
5
15
4.5
10
4
3.5
3
-13 -13 -13 -13 -14 -14 -14 -14 -15
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
45
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
KLEPIERRE

.
.
Corio, (,
, , , ,
).
KLEPIERRE
42
LI
FR
REITS-Diversified
40
38
36
34
32
30
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
(.)
EUR
12,647
12
12
12 %
41.19
41.9
30.3
25.7
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
20.3x
26.9x
3.3x
4.2x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
0.7
3.8
2.8
85.7
A-
: Bloomberg
KLEPIERRE 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
KLEPIERRE 1 year forward P/E
26
45
24
40
22
35
30
20
25
18
20
16
15
14
10
12
10
EV/EBITDA
: Bloomberg
46
Average
1 STDV
PE
Average
1 STDV
|
29 2015
ALCATEL-LUCENT
Alcatel Lucent
, 70%
.
, .
ALCATEL LUCENT
3.5
ALU
FR
REITS-Diversified
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
-14
-14
-14
-14
-15
(.)
EUR
8,597
12
12
12 %
3.0
3.4
1.8
4.6
P/E .
EV/EBITDA
P/Book
P/Sales
NM
7.9x
3.1x
0.6x
Beta
. %
Ebitda%
1.3
0.0
1.9
8.8
B
: Bloomberg
ALCATEL LUCENT 1 year forward EV/EBITDA
ALCATEL LUCENT 1 year forward P/E
25
20
15
10
P/E chart not meaningful
5
0
EV/EBITDA
Average
1 STDV
: Bloomberg
( 27 2015)
47
|
29 2015
2014
2014
,
, ,
, (-, )
(.. Ebola).
2014
NASDAQ
S&P500
Swiss
13.4%
Argentina
11.4%
Shanghai
9.5%
DOW JONES
7.5%
Canada
7.4%
Japan
7.1%
Netherlands
5.6%
59.1%
52.9%
India
29.9%
Turkey
26.4%
Indonesia
26.4%
Serbia
19.5%
10.8%
China (H-shs)
Romania
9.1%
Spain
3.7%
Taiwan
Russell 2000
3.5%
Bulgaria
7.9%
6.2%
STOXX 50
2.9%
S.Africa
6.0%
2.7%
Chile
Germany
E-STOXX50
1.2%
Australia
1.1%
Italy
0.2%
France
-0.5%
Great Britain
-2.7%
MSCI Emerging
-4.6%
Austria
Portugal
Greece
-15.2%
-26.8%
-28.9%
4.1%
Hong-Kong
1.3%
Mexico
1.0%
Poland
0.3%
Brazil
-2.9%
Czech
-4.3%
Korea
-4.8%
-5.7%
Malaysia
Hungary
Thailand
Russia
-10.4%
-12.6%
-45.2%
: Bloomberg
, , nasdaq
13.4% .

. Espirito Santo Group ,

,
. ,
,
.
,
.
2
, .
48
|
29 2015
2014
26.6%
13.3%
24.4%
12.5%
18.2%
9.7%
14.2%
7.7%
13.1%
7.2%
8.6%
8.0%
'
4.7%
-0.7%
-9.3%
'
3.9%
-0.6%
-2.6%
-4.1%
-11.5%
: Bloomberg
,
40%
.
.

ISIS .

, Fed Janet Yellen
.
.
,
( ).

2014,
0.05%, (Targeted LTROs),

SMP.
1 3 . ,
TLTROs,

2015
.
49
|
29 2015

. .
,
,
(>40%) .

, 10 13 ,
.
,
,
20% 30%.
, ''.
yen,

. Abe 2/3
, ,
10% 8%
5% .
,

,
2012.
Hong-Kong Shanghai A shares .
50
|
29 2015
2014
2014,
-2% 2014.
2014
/
EUR
2014
GENERAL ELECTRIC
US
Diversified Manufact Op
USD
212,851
-10%
MERCK
US
Medical-Drugs
USD
154,989
13%
BANK OF AMERICA
US
Banks
USD
145,503
15%
GILEAD SCIENCES
US
Medical-Biotech
USD
138,501
26%
QUALCOMM
US
Semicon Compo-Intg Circ
USD
104,350
0%
HONEYWELL
US
Instruments-Controls
USD
68,009
9%
GENERAL MOTORS
US
USD
47,646
-15%
CBS CORP
US
Television
USD
25,669
-13%
GAP
US
Retail-Apparel/Shoe
USD
15,570
8%
ROCHE
CH
Medical-Drugs
CHF
211,215
8%
VOLKSWAGEN
DE
EUR
92,991
-10%
SIEMENS
DE
Diversified Manufact Op
EUR
87,439
-6%
SANTANDER
ES
Banks
EUR
84,485
8%
LVMH
FR
Textile-Apparel
EUR
69,988
10%
ALLIANZ
DE
Multi-line Insurance
EUR
66,219
5%
BNP PARIBAS
FR
Banks
EUR
61,550
-14%
ABB
CH
Engineering/R&D Serv
CHF
40,656
-10%
SOC GENERALE
FR
Banks
EUR
30,658
-17%
WPP
GB
Advertising Agencies
GBp
25,674
-2%
PHILIPS
NL
Electronic Compo-Misc
EUR
24,530
-10%
SWATCH
CH
Retail-Jewelry
CHF
19,458
-25%
KINGFISHER
GB
Retail-Building Products
GBp
10,704
-14%

: Bloomberg.
51
-2%
|
29 2015
Eurobank Equities ....

,
& Eurobank
:
6/149/12.1.1999
: 094543092, , ...: 003214701000
10,
105 57
: +(30210) 3720000
Fax: +(30210) 3720001
Website: www.eurobankequities.gr
Email: research@eurobankequities.gr

: +30 210 3720 257
Email: nkoskoletos@eurobankequities.gr

: +30 210 3720 262

Email: mlagounari@eurobankequities.gr
: EUROBANK Equities A.E.... Eurobank,

.
. EUROBANK Equities A.E....

,
. ,
.
EUROBANK Equities A.E....
Eurobank EFG.
( ) , ,
,
. , , EUROBANK Equities
A.E....
.
( 27 2015)
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2015 | (.

NIKE INC -CL B

LVMH MOET HENNES

INTL CONS AIRLIN

Diversified Banking Inst

Commer Banks Non-US

S&P 500 Div Yield

10yr Treasury Yield

Euro Stoxx Div Yield

Eurozone Corp A yield

-09 -10 -11 -12

S&P 500 Div Yield

-13 -14 -15

-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15

S&P 500 Earn. Yield

Russell 1000 Dynamic

Russell 1000 Defensive

Premium / Discount (%)

VIX- S&P 500 Volatility Index

VSTOXX - Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility Index

US GDP est 2015

US GDP est 2014

EZ GDP est 2015

EZ GDP est 2014

: Bloomberg. *CBR key rate

BoE Balance Sheet (GBP bn)

Eurozone CPI % yoy

ECB Balance Sheet (EURtr)

5y inflation linked swap

Japan Core CPI (excl Fresh Food)

BoJ Balance Sheet (Yen tr)

Total oil supply

Total oil demand

Total oil reserves

Total oil supply

US onshore oil rigs

OSE All Share

US non farm payrolls

Avg hourly wages yoy%

Avg 30yr mortgage rate

S&P 500 INDEX

US consumption growth (3 mo MA)%

Natl Avg Gasoline Price

Annual US auto sales

Retail sales growth ex-autos (3 mo MA)%

10yr Treasury Yield

Jan2014 Mar2014 May2014 Jul2014 Sept2014 Nov2014 Jan2015

Jan2014 Mar2014 May2014 Jul2014 Sept2014 Nov2014 Jan2015

FY 2014e Sales growth

FY 2014e EPS growth

FY 2014e EPS ex energy

FY 2015f Sales growth

FY 2015f EPS growth

FY 2015f EPS ex energy

-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15

Est Sales rebased

Est EPS rebased

-07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15

S&P500 net margin

BANK OF AMERICA 1 year forward P/BV

BANK OF AMERICA 1 year forward P/E

MERCK 1 year forward EV/EBITDA

MERCK 1 year forward P/E

WALT DISNEY 1 year forward EV/EBITDA