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Counting Sample Points

Multiplication Rule If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of


these a second operation can be performed in n2 ways, then the two operations can
be performed together in n1 n2 ways.
Example 1
How many sample points are in the sample space when a pair of dice is thrown
once?
Solution
The first die can land in any one of n1 = 6 ways. For each of these 6 ways the
second die can also land in n2 = 6 ways. Therefore, the pair of dice can land in
n1 n2 = (6)(6) = 36 possible ways
Example 2
A developer of a new subdivision offers prospective home buyers a choice of Tudor,
rustic, colonial, and traditional exterior styling in ranch, two-story, and split-level
floor plans. In how many different ways can a buyer order one of these homes?
Solution
Since n1 = 4 and n2 = 3 a buyer must choose from
n1 n2 = (4)(3) = 12 possible homes
Generalized Multiplication Rule if an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if
for each of these a second operation can be performed in n2 ways, and for each of
the first two a third operation can be performed in n 3 ways, and so forth, then the
sequence k operation can be performed in n1 n2nk ways.
Example 3
Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of ordering
chips from two brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three and an accessory
bundle from five local stores. How many different ways can Sam order the parts?
Solution
Since n1 =2 n2 =4 n3=3 and n4 =5 there are
n1n2n3n4n5 = (2)(4)(3)(5) = 120 different ways to order parts.
Permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.
Consider the three letter a, b and c. The possible permutations are abc, acb, bac,
cab, and cba. Thus we see that there are 6 distinct arrangements. Then we can say

the number of permutation of n distinct object is n!. Written as n(n-1)(n-2) . . .(3)(2)


(1) ways. *note n! read as n factorial*
Example 4
Four people are to be arranged in a row to have their picture taken. In how many
ways can this be done?
Solution
n = 4 people to be arrange in definite orders
n = 4! = 4(3)(2)(1) = 24 ways
Theorem The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken r at a time is nPr =

n!
( nr ) !
Example 5
Fifteen cars enter a race. In how many different ways could trophies for the first,
second and third place be awarded?
Solution
n= 15
r=3
15P3 =

15 !
=2,730 ways
( 153 ) !

Example 6
Five applicants enter an interview room in which there are seven seats. In how
many ways may they be seated?
Solution
n=7
r=5
7

P5 =

7!
=2,520 ways
( 75 ) !

Permutations that occur by arranging objects in a circle are called circular


permutations.
Theorem the number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is
(n-1)!

Example 7
A gardener wishes to plant 8 different flowers in a circular arrangement. In how
many ways can this be done?
Solution
n=8
(n-1)! = (8-1)! = 7! = 5,040 ways
Theorem- the number of distinct permutations of n things of which n 1 are of the
same kind n2 of a second kind , . . . , nk of a kth kind is

n!
n1 ! n 2 ! . . ., n k !

Example 8
Eight books are to be arrange on a shelf. There are 2 Math identical books, 3
identical English books and 3 identical Filipino books. How many distinct
arrangement are possible?
Solution
n=8books
n1= 2 Math books
n2 = 3 English books
n3= 3 Filipino books
P=

8!
2 !3!3!

= 560 arrangements

How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word
MISSISSIPPI ?
Solution:
n= 1 + 4 + 4 +2 =11
n1= 1
n2 = 4
n3= 4
n4=2
P=

11 !
=34,650 distinct permutations
1 !4 !4!2 !

In some cases, we solve problems regarding the number of ways of selecting r


objects from n without regard to order. These arrangements are called
combinations.

Theorem the number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is nCr


=

n!
r ! ( nr ) !

Example
How many distinct five-card hands can be dealt from a standard 52-card deck?
Solution
Since the 5-card hand remains unchanged even if you receive the same 5 cards in a
different order, therefore it is a combination problem.
n=52
r=5
C5 =

52

52!
5 ! ( 525 ) !

= 2,598,960 different ways

In order to conduct a certain experiment, four students are randomly selected from
a class of 20. How many different groups of four students are possible?

Example
A young boy asks his mother to get five game-boy cartridges from his collection of
10 arcade and 5 sport games. How many ways are there that his mother will get 3
arcade and 2 sport games, respectively?
Solution
The number of ways selecting 3 arcade cartridges from 10 is

10 !
=120
(103)= 3 ! ( 103
)!

The number of ways selecting 2 sport cartridges from 5 is

5!
=10
(52)= 2! (52
)!

Using the Multiplication rule of theorem with n 1 = 120 and n2 = 10, there are (120)
(10) = 1200 ways
Probability of an Event

To find the probability of an event A, we sum all the probabilities assigned to the
sample points in A. This sum is called the probability of A and is denoted by P(A).
Basic Properties of Probability
1. Certainty this property states that the probability that the event is on the
sample space is one.
P(S) =1
2. Non-negativity this property states that every event has a non-negative
probability. The lowest probability of an event is 0 or no chance and the highest
probability of an event is 1 or certain.
P(E) 0, for all E S
3. Union the probability of the union of mutually exclusive events is the sum of
each events probability.
P (A B) = P (A) + P (B)
The probability of an event A is the sum of the weights of all sample points in A.
therefore,
0 P(A) 1,
P() = 0
and P(S) = 1
Example
A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one head occurs?
Solution
S = { HH, TT, TH, HT} =4
A = { HH, TH, HT} = 3
P(A) = 3/4
Example
A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as an
odd number. If E is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of
the die, find P(E).
Solution
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} since even number is twice as likely to occur then S =
{1,2,2,3,4,4,5,6,6} =9
E = {1,2,3}
P(1) = 1/9 P(2) = 2/9 P(3) = 1/9 then P(E) = 1/9 + 2/9 + 1/9 = 4/9
Theorem
If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally likely outcomes, and if
exactly n of those outcomes correspond to event A, then the probability of event A
is P(A) = n/S
Example
A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability that

a. a 5 will appear
b. an even number will appear?
Solution
S= {1,2,3,4,5,6} = 6
if A is the event that a 5 will appear
A = {5}
n(A) = 1
P(A) =

n( A) 1
=
S
6

Example
A mixture of candies contains 6 mints, 4 toffees and 3 chocolates. If a person
makes a random selection of one of these candies, find the probability of getting:
a. Mint?
b. a toffee or a chocolate?
Solution
n(S) = 13
n(M) = 6
n(T) = 4
n(C) = 3
P(M) = 6/13
P(T C) =

4 3
7
+ =
13 13 13

Example
In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of holding 2 aces and 3
jacks.
Solution:
in a 52 card deck, there are 4 aces and 4 jacks, therefore, the number of ways of
dealing 2 aces are 4C2 and the number of ways of dealing 3 jacks are 4C3.
n(A) = (4C2)( 4C3 ) = (6)(4) = 24 ways
In a 52 card deck, the number of poker hand to be dealt is 52C5. Therefore n(S) =
2,598,960
therefore: P(A) =

24
2, 598,960

Additive Rules
It is easier to solve the probability of an event if we base it from known probabilities
of other events, especially if the event in question can be represented as the union
of two other events or as the complement of some event. The additive rule applies
to union of events.
Theorem
If A and B are any two events, then
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB)
Corollary 1
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
Corollary 2
If A1, A2, A3, . . . , An are mutually exclusive, then
P(A1, A2, A3, . . . , An) = P(A1) + P(A2) + . . . + P(An)
Corollary 3
If A1, A2, A3, . . . , An is a partition of a sample space S , then
P(A1 A2 A3 . . . An) = P(A1) + P(A2) + . . . + P(An)
= P(S)
=1
Theorem
For three event A, B and C,
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(BC) + P(ABC)
Example
The probability that Sid passes Calculus is 2/3, and the probability that she passes
Statistics is 4/9. If the probability of passing both courses is 1/4, what is the
probability that Sid will pass at least one of these subjects?
Solution
Let A be the event that Sid passes Calculus
Let B be the event that Sid passes Statistics
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB)
= 2/3 + 4/9
=

31
36

Example
What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of dice are tossed?
Solution
Let A be the event that 7 occurs
Let B be the event that 11 comes up

6
36 P(B) =

P(A) =

2
36

Since this is a mutually exclusive event, therefore


P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
= 8/36 =

2
9

Example
if a deck of 52 cards is well mixed before a single card is drawn all 52 outcomes are
equally likely. If A = {hearts}, B={black card}, C = {jack or queen or king}
Compute:
a. P(A)
b. P(B)
c . P(C)
d. P(ABC)
Solution
P(A) =

13 1
=
52 4

P(B) =

26 1
=
52 2

P(C) =

12 3
=
52 13

P(ABC) =

13 26 12
3
6
42
+ + 0 + 0=
52 52 52
52 52
52

Theorem
If A and A' are complimentary events, then
P(A) + P(A') = 1
Example
If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or

more cars on any given day are 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07, what is the
probability that he will service at least 5 cars on his next day at work?
Solution
Let A be the event that at least 5 cars are serviced
Let A' be the event that fewer than 5 cars are serviced
P(A) = 1 P(A')
P(A') = 0.12 + 0.19 = 0.31
P(A) = 1 0.31
P(A) = 0.69
Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of A, given B, denoted by P(A|B), is defined by
P(A|B) =

P(B A)
P(B)

, if P(B) > 0

Example
A fair Die is tossed once. Find the probability that a 4 appear, when it is known that
a number greater than 2 results in the toss of the die.
Solution
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Let A be the event that 4 appear in a single toss. A = {4}


Let B be the event that number is greater than 2 appear. B = {3, 4, 5, 6}
AB = {4}
1
6 1
=
P(A|B)= 4 4
6
Example
Consider the table below
Male
Female
Total
With TB
5
10
15
Without TB
55
30
85
Total
60
40
100
Supposed that we are going to select a person at random from this group.
Find the Probability that the person selected has TB, given he is a male.
Solution:
Let A be the event that the person has TB
Let B be the event that the person is a male

P(male with TB) = P(A|B)


=

5 /100
60 /100

5
1
=
60 12

Definition
Two events A and B are independent if and only if
P(B|A) = P(B)
and P(A|B) = P(A)
otherwise, A and B are dependent.
Multiplication Rules
Theorem
If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur, then
P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A)
Example
Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2
fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in succession without
replacing the first, what is the probability that both fuses are defective?
Solution
Let A be the event that the first fuse is defective.
Let B be the event that the second fuse is defective.
Let AB be the event that A occurs and then B occurs after A has occurred.
P(A) =

P(B|A) =

5 1
=
20 4
4
19

Therefore P(AB) =

1
4
4
1
=
19
19

Binomial Formula
n

(a+b) =

(nk ) ank bk
k=0

Example
Use the binomial formula to expand (x + y)6

(x + y)5 =

(60 ) x

6 0

0
61 1
62 2
6 3 3
64 4
65 5
6 6 6
y + 6 x y + 6 x y+ 6 x y + 6 x y + 6 x y+ 6 x y
1
2
3
4
5
6

()

()

()

()

()

()

= x6 + 6x5y + 15x4y2 + 20x3y3 + 15x2y4 + 6xy5 + y6


Example
Use the binomial formula to expand (2x y)4
(2x y)4 =

(40 )(2 x )

40

0
41
1
42
2
4 3
3
4 4
4
( y ) + 4 (2 x ) ( y) + 4 ( 2 x ) ( y) + 4 (2 x) (y ) + 4 (2 x) ( y)
1
2
3
4

()

()

()

()

= [1 (2x)4 (-y)0 ]+[ 4 (2x)3 (-y)1 ]+ [6 (2x)2 (-y)2 ]+ [4 (2x)1 (-y)3 ]+[ (2x)0 (-y)4
]
= 16x4 32x3y + 24x2y2 8xy3 + y4

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