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Research Methodology
Re is the prefix meaning Again or over again or a new and Search is the
latter meaning to examine closely and carefully or to test and try.
Together they form, a careful, systematic, patient study and investigation in some
field of knowledge undertaken to establish principles / policies.
Research can also be defined as
1. Search for knowledge
2. Systematic and scientific search for getting relevant answers on any taken up
specific topic.
Organizing
Evaluating datas
Making decisions
Suggesting solutions
Reaching conclusions
Library Research:
(2)
Laboratory Research:
1)A student preparing himself for a career of carrying out research as his profession
1) Controlled
2) Rigorous
3) Systematic
4) Valid
5) Verifiable
6) Empirical
7) Critical
1. Controlled:
relevant, appropriate & justified. But the degree of rigiour may vary from one problem
to another problem.
Application
objective
1) Pure Research
1) Descriptive
2) Applied Research
Inquiry mode
1) Quantitative Research
2) Correlative
2) Qualitative Research
3) Exploratory
4) Explanatory
1) Pure Research:
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Descriptive Research:
Survey or fact finding enquires of different kinds. It describes the actual
prevailing state of affairs, existing at present.
Otherwise known as ex post facts means existing position of facts /
issues.
Here the variable influencing the research has no control or the
researcher has no control over the variables.
Eg: Frequency of shopping, customer preference etc.
2)
Correlative Research:
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Analytical Research:
The researcher has to use facts / information already existing and analyze these
data to make a critical evaluation.
Eg: document study / historical evidence.
Descriptive Vs Analytical Research:
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Explanatory Research:
Attempts to clarify or explain why and how, any particular research problem arises
and can be solved.
4. Exploratory Research:
destination.
III. Based on the Inquiry Mode:
1)
Quantitative Research:
Relates to aspects that can be quantified and expressed in terms of quantity.
Otherwise known as structured Research.
In this type of Research, the objectives, design, sample and all the other
factors influencing the research is pre determined.
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The research problem and its solution will be expressed in terms of quantity and
hence statistical and economic analysis is adapted in this type of Research.
Quantitative Research:
Otherwise known as unstructured research.
The aspects related to quality / kind or texture.
Eg: Behaviour science
Apart from the above, other types of Research are,
Conceptual Research: Research related to some abstract idea or theory
Used by philosophers or thinkers for developing new concepts.
Empirical research
(based on experiments or experience)
Otherwise known as experimental type of Research.
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Ananalytical mind:
2)
A people person :
focus groups.
3)
Keep well focused and think logically there will always be an end point.
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4)
Intelligence :
common sense.
5)
Curiosity:
Quick thinker:
to think fast.
7)
Commitment:
deadlines short.
8)
Sympathetic:
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10)
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Economics:
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become more complex, they face several operational problems to solve this
problems, and Research is carried on.
To frame Govt. economic policies.
Govt. budget a formulation depends on the analysis of needs & desires of
the people, available of revenues needs research.
Decision making requires proper research.
Allocation of a countries scarce resource also needs research.
2)Business Decisions:
In business sectors there are both planning and operational problems.
a) Problems Research:
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Helps
to
determine
people
behavior
or
consumer response.
All the above three are responsible for business decision making.
3)Social sectors: To gain knowledge on unknown aspects and do something better
and more efficiently.
Social scientist gains their knowledge for their own sake and for the development
of the society.
1.
Formulating the Research problem:a) The formulation of a general topic into a specific Research problem thus
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Sources of survey can be, journals, bio-graphics, Govt. reports, books, conference
proceedings etc.
Based on the nature of the problem.
Earlier study if any which is similar to the study in hand should be carefully
studied.
A good library will be a great help to the researcher at this stage.
Stage III:
Developing Hypothesis :
State in clear terms the working hypothesis (Basic Idea of the Research problem)
It is a tentative assumption in order to test to logical or empirical consequences.
Provide the focal point for research.
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Hypothesis should be very specific and very well limited to the place of research in
hand because it has to be tested.
Hypothesis guides the researched by limiting the area of Research and keep him
on the right track.
It sharpens his thinking and focuses attention on important facets of the problem.
It indicates the type of data required for the study.
Type of methods of data analysis done.
How to develop working Hypothesis?
1)Discuss with collogues / experts, about the problems, its origin, its objectives and
solutions.
2)Examination of data/ records if available.
3)Review similar studies / similar problems.
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4)To secure greater insight into the practical aspects of the problem conduct
personnel investigation or field interviews.
STEP IV:
Preparing the Research Design:
Research design is the conceptual structure within which research is conduction. It
constitutes the blue print for the collection, measurement and analysis of data.
The function of the Research design is to provide relevant evidence with minimal
expenditure of effort, time and money. It provides an outline of what the researcher is
going to do in terms of 1) Framing the hypothesis, 2) its operational implications and
3) finally data analysis
The Research design highlights certain decision,
1)The nature of the study
2)Purpose of the study
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4 types
Deals
with
the
observations
(field
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Deals
with
the
information
on
the
data
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Probability:Each item in the population has on equal chance of being selected for the
study.
1)Simple random sampling
2)Systematic random sampling
3)Stratified random sampling
4)Cluster / area random sampling.
Non Probability sampling: All the items do not have an equal chance of being selected
for the study.
The selection depends upon the convenience & judgment of the Researcher.
Mixed sampling: When more than one type of sampling technique is used for a
study, it is mixed sampling.
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Nature of investigation
2)
3)
Financial Resources
4)
Time frame
5)
6)
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tabulated or counted.
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Research Design
May be sub divided into,
1) Sampling design:
2) Observational design:
be made.
3) Statistical Design:
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3) Specifies the time schedule of the research and the monetary budget involved.
Concepts Relating to Research Design
1) Dependent and Independent variables :
Variables : A magnitude that varies is known as variable
Continuous variable :
Non continuous Variables: Value that can be expressed only in integer values are
called Non continuous variables
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Price (independent)
Independent or Exogenous variable
The variable that causes the change in the dependent variable is known as
independent or exogenous variable.
Demand (Dependent) ------- Price ,Income
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Confounded Relationship
The relationship between dependent and independent variable is said to be
confounded by an extraneous variables.
Research Hypothesis:
When the formulated hypothesis is tested by adopting scientific methods, it is
known as Research Hypothesis.
Experimental & Non Experimental Hypothesis testing:
When the objective of the Research is to test the hypothesis, it is Research
hypothesis.
Research in which the independent variable are (handled with skill) manipulated,
it is experimental hypothesis testing.
When the variables are not manipulated, it is non experimental hypothesis testing.
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3)
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Should minimize bias and maximize reliability of data collection & Analysis.
No experimental error should be allowed
Should yield maximum information
Research problem should be viewed from different angles or dimensions.
The choice of Research design depends on,
Nature of the Research problem
Objectives of the Research problem
Skills / ability of the Researcher
Methods of gathering information
Availability of monetary support
Time schedule
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HYPOTHESIS
A Research hypothesis is a predictive statement, which is capable of being tested
using scientific methods, which involves independent and dependent valuables. (eg)
the female students perform as well as the male students.
This statement is a hypothesis that can be objectively tested and verified.
It is a proposition that can be put to test in order to examine its validity.
Characteristics of Hypothesis
1)A hypothesis should be precise and clear. If not clear, the inferences will not be
reliable.
2)It must be capable of being put to test.
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3)It should state the relationship between the variables, in case relational
hypothesis.
4)It should be stated in a simple language.
5)It should be consistant and derived from all known facts.
6)Hypothesis must be amenable to testing within a reasonable period of time
7)Hypothesis should explain what it actually
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Alternative Hypothesis:
u = 100
Ha :
u > 100
Ha :
u < 100
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Decision Rule
The researcher should make a decision, if to accept or Reject Ho.
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The decision rule should be decided on the number of items to be tested and the
basic of which to accept or reject.
4.
(i)
Researcher may reject Ho, when it is true Type I Error (which must have been
accepted).
(ii) Researcher may accept Ho, when it is false Type II Error (which must have been
rejected)
5.
(i)
One tailed test rejects the Null hypothesis when the sample mean is either greater
or lower than the hypothesized value of the population mean.
Two tailed Test: When the sample mean is both greater and lower than the
hypothesized value of the population mean.
Procedure for Hypothesis Testing:
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committed.
compile, compare & compute the data and come out with the inference.
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Null Hypothesis:
SAMPLE SURVEY
Sampling Design:
An art of obtaining a sample from a given population. The technique or procedure
the researcher adopts for selecting items for the sample from the population or
universe.
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items)
Eg: Chennai population, No. of stars
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2)Sampling Unit:
A geographical area like a state, district or village.
Family, religious community or a school.
Individual (Researcher can select one or two such units).
3)Source List: Otherwise known as Sampling Frame
Consists of names of all items of a universe.
If not available the researcher has to prepare a Source list.
It must be reliable, comprehensive, correct and appropriate.
It should be the representative of the population / universe.
4)Size of sample:
Refers to the number of items to be chosen from the universe.
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The items or parameters are selected based on the researchers own interest.
Budgetary constraint :
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The technique should be selected so that for a given sample size & budget, the
sampling error must be very small or negligible.
Sampling Error: may be caused (In case of Non probability sampling) due to
(1) Interviewer Bias
(2) Mistakes
(3) Non response problems
(4) Questionnaire design flaws
(5) Data processing & analysis errors
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1)Probability sampling
2)Non Probability sampling.
Probability sampling:
Otherwise known as choice sampling or random sampling.
Every item has an equal chance of being included in the sample.
Eg: Lotteries (or) subscribers
When done property, probability sampling ensures that the sample has a similar
composition and profile as that of the entire population.
7 different types of probability sampling,
1)Simple Random sampling
2)Stratified Random sampling
3)Cluster sampling
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4)Systematic sampling
5)Area sampling
6)Multi stage sampling
7)
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- The entire population is divided into sub population (sub groups) (i.e. the sub
population being homogenous).
- Items are selected from each stratum.
- This method is more reliable & accurate.
- Eg:
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Simple Random sampling is applied and the need clusters are selected for the
study.
If all the elements found in the selected cluster is taken for the study, then it is
one stage cluster sampling.
If random sampling is applied in selecting elements found within the clusters, it is
two stage cluster sampling.
(4) Systematic sampling:
- Selecting every nth element for the study.
1st, 5th, 10th, 15th, 20th .
(5) Area sampling:
divisions.
(6) Multi stage sampling:
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- Stage level
- District level
- Towns
- Villages
Items are selected at four stages / levels.
(7) Sampling with probability proportional to size:
- The probability of inclusion into the study is directly proportional to the size of the
clusters.
- This technique is used when the no. of elements present in each cluster varies.
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1)
Convenience sampling:
- Choosing items at the convenience of the Researcher.
Eg: Street interviews (sampling of people who are at easy access)
Drawback:
Lack of accuracy
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2.
Quota sampling
The researcher simply assume quotas, with certain restrictions imposed on how
sample frame.
Disadvantages of sampling:
1)Inadequacy of samples
2)Chances of bias
3)Problems of accuracy
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Primary Data
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Primary Data:
Refers to the data collected for the first time (Original data)
Example: Proceedings from conferences meetings, Students records.
Secondary Data:
Refers to the data that have already been collected and used earlier by somebody
or some agency.
Example: Online database, Historical books etc.
Example: Taking census (total population) of Government of India Primary Data.
When research is done by some other scientist on the basis of this data, it is
secondary data.
Selecting A particular source of Data depends on,
(1) Purpose & Scope of the study.
(2) Availability of time.
(3) Availability of Resources.
(4) The degree of Accuracy desired.
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of Information (data).
(b) Availability of Time: The investigation should be done within a reasonable period of time.
Taking which the information collected may become outdated.
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Example: Demand of a new product launched is studied, if the result comes out
after 2 years, by the time the producer may attain great lose.
So, make sure the investigation is carried out within a reasonable period of time.
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In the absence of a clear and precise Statistical Unit Serious errors may be
committed by collecting irrelevant data. This will ultimately lead to fallacious
(Wrong) conclusions.
(f) Sources of Information:
The researcher has to decide about the source from which the information can be
obtained or collected.
1. First hand data.
2. The data from other published sources. (Publications, Journal, Magazines etc.)
(g) Method of Data Collection:1. Primary Data.
2. Secondary Data.
Primary Data:-
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CENSUS
SAMPLE
Expensive Accuracy
cannot
attained,
taken,
Less
Less
100%
be
time
expensive,
Less Laborious.
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Merits:
(i)
(ii) Information are more accurate (if not found accurate, he can be reexamined or
Cross-examined, there by try to obtain the information).
(iii) Provides hope for getting supplementary information, which may be of greater
use latter.
(iv) A delicate situation (Some Personnel Questions) can usually be handled more
effectively by a personnel interview than other survey techniques.
(v) The interviewer can adjust the language according to the status and
educational level of the person interviewed, thereby can avoid inconvenience
and misinterpretation.
Demerits:
(i)
(ii) Greater chance of personnel bias and prejudice. (taking a decision before
finding the full facts).
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(ii) Ability of the interviewer to act the right information from the witness.
(iii) Bribery or other reasons may twist the witness to give false information there by
bringing a wrong conclusion.
Conclusion:
(i) Let more care should be taken in the selection of Witness because it is on their
views, the final conclusion is reached.
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Disadvantages:
(i) Lacks Accuracy.
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Non-disguised Structured.
Easily adopted in large populations and when the informants are wide spread
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(3) Information
(2)
(3)
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The enumerators contacts the informants, gets replied to the questions contained
in the schedule and fill them in their own handwriting.
Here the questions are asked face to face and the response is papered.
Merits:
(1)
(2)
(3)
Demerits:
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Secondary Data:
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Are those data which have already been collected and analyzed by some earlier
agency for its own use and later the same data is used by a different agency.
Sources of Secondary Data:
(1)
Published Sources.
(2)
Unpublished Sources.
1. Published Sources:
The Government, Inter National and local agencies publish statistical data.
Chief Among them,
(i) Inter National Publications:Inter National Institutions & bodies like I.M.J.(International Monetary Fund), I.B.R.D.
(International Bank of Reconstruction and Development), I.C.A.F.E. (International
Conference on Agriculture & Food Engineering) and U.N.O. United Nations Organization
publish regular & occasional reports on Economics & Statistical matters.
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(b)
Census of India.
(c)
(d)
(e)
(b)
(c)
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The reliability of data can be tested by finding the agency that has collected the
data, if the agency has used proper methods for collection the data.
EDITING:
Once data have been obtained from primary or secondary sources the next step in
a statistical investigation is to edit the data. (to Scrutinize).
Objective, editing is to detect possible errors and irregulations.
Editing needs great care and attention.
Editing Secondary data is simple but the data collected from survey (Primary
Data) need excessive editing.
Editing Primary Data,
(i)
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Now, Secondary data are generally used from fairly reliable published data by
Government, Private organizations and research agencies, periodicals magazines
etc.,
In fact, primary data are collected only if there do not exist any secondary data.
In some cases both Primary & Secondary data may be used.
QUESTIONNAIRE
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(or)
Media of communication between the investigator and the respondent.
Generally used in social research when the population is varied, large, diverse &
Scattered.
Should be designed with utmost care & caution so that all the needed information
are collected without any difficulty.
Drafting a Good questionnaire Requires Care, Skill, Wisdom, efficiency and
experience.
Points to Remember: While Drafting A Questionnaire
(1) Size of the Questionnaire:
(a) No. of questions should be as small as possible depending on the nature, objectives
& scope of the study.
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(b) Large no.of questions may irritate the informants and may be difficult to Edit or
Scrutinize by the investigator.
(c) Avoid irrelevant and unimportant questions.
(d) Average No. of questions should be 15 to 25 (at the most).
(e) If it is more than 25, divide it into various sections.
2. The Questions should be Clear:
Should be Easy, Brief, Unambiguous(Clear in meaning), Non offending, courteous
in tone, corroborative (Supportive) in nature & to the point.
3. The Questions should be arranged in a Logical Sequence:
When arranged Logically, the answers can be easily tabulated or coded and does
not leave any chance of omissions.
Example: To find if a person owns a television.
4. Questions should be simple to understand:
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(c) Occasionally
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9. Cross Checks:
Should be designed to provide internal checks on the accuracy of the in
formations given by the respondents.
10. Pre-Testing the Questionnaire:
Try out the Questionnaire on a small scale before using in a large scale.
The drawbacks, short comings and problems faced in the small scale informants
can be improved or modified when used in large scale.
11. A Covering Letter:
A Covering Letter should be enclosed for the purpose regarding definitions,
concepts & purpose.
Attach a self addressed envelope in case of mailed questionnaire.
Mentions about Awards or incentives for quick reply.
Promise to send a survey copy of the report.
--------------
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SAMPLING
A carefully designed sample may actually be better than a poorly planned and
executed census.
Merits:
1. It saves time:
Saves time because fewer items are collected and processed.
2. It Reduces Cost:
Since only few items are studied, there is reduction in cost & reduction in man
power.
3. More Reliable Results can be Obtained:
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7. More Scientific:
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3. Lack of Experts:
If there is a lack of experts to plan, execute and analyze the samples, the result
would be unsatisfactory.
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4. Personal Bias:
There may be personal bias & prejudice in choosing the sampling techniques.
5. Size of Sample:
If the size of the sample is not appropriate, it leads to untrue conclusions.
Essentials of Sampling:
1. It must be the right representative:
The Sample selected should process the similar characteristics of the original
universe.
2. Homogeneity:
Selected samples should be homogenous with the samples & the universe.
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3. Adequate Samples:
A good number of items should be included for the study.
4. Optimization:
A proper size of sample should be maintained to have optimized results in terms
of cost & efficiency.
Statistical Laws:
Induction:
The logical process of drawing a general conclusion from the study of
representative items is called Induction.
Sampling is based on two fundamental principles of Statistics theory
(i) Law of Statistical Regularity
(ii) The Law of Inertia of Large Numbers.
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It States, Other Using being equal, as the sample size increases, the results tend
to be more accurate & reliable.
Sampling Error:
The deviations or difference between the actual population and the sample
representative.
Reasons For Sampling Error:
1. Faulty Selection of Sample
2. Substitution
3. Faulty Demarcation (Demographic limit) of sampling Unit:
In case of Area sampling the sampling units at the borders should be decided if to
take it or reject it.
4. Faulty estimation techniques:
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EXPERIMENTS
Experiment is the process of examining the truth of a statistical Hypothesis
related to some research problem.
Experiments are of two types,
1. Absolute Experiment.
2. Comparative Experiment.
Absolute Experiment:
When a researcher wants to determine the impact of a fertilizer on the yield of a
crop, it is a case of Absolute Experiment.
Comparative Experiment:
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His found out that, by dividing plots into different blocks and then by conducting
experiments in each of these blocks, whatever in formations is collected and
inference drawn from them can be more reliable Professor Fisher laid three
principles of Experimental Designs,
1. The Principal of Replication
2. The Principal of Randomization.
3. The Principal of Local Control.
The Principal of Replication :
The Experiment should be repeated more than once.
The treatment is applied to many experimental units.
The information collected and the inference drawn from these experimental units
will be more reliable and statistically accruable.
Aim: To examine the effect of two varieties of paddy.
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Example: A paddy field is divided into 2 parts. Grow one variety in one part and the
other variety in the other. Then we compare the yield of the two parts.
Draw conclusion on that basis.
No Principle of Replication is
Field
rrrrr
rrrrr
rr
rrrrr
rrrrr
rr
Treatmentrrrrr
rrrrr
r
Part I
One variety
of Paddy
Part I
Compare the yield of the two parts.
Another
Variety of Paddy.
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Treated
rr
rr R r
rr
rr R r
rr
rr R r
rr
rr R r
rr
rr R r
Conclusion drawn.
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Parts
2. The Principle of Randomization:
Principle of Randomization Provides us a protection against the effects of
Extraneous Variables.
The variations or effects caused by these extraneous variables can be combined
under the heading Chance.
Example: When the researcher grows one variety of paddy in the first half of the field
and the other variety in the next half of the field, there may be a possibility or chance
that the soil fertility of the first half of the field may be different in comparison to the
next half.
In this case, he may go on to cultivate the two varieties of paddy in different parts
of the field on the basis of some random sampling technique.
(i.e.) He may apply Randomization principle and protect himself from the effects of
the Extraneous Factors.
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When treated
rr r r
r
rr r r
r
rr r r
r
rr r r
r
rr r r
r
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Three Types,
1. Before and after without control design.
2. After Only with Control design.
3. Before and after with control design.
Before and after without control design:
Consider a test group,
Step.1: The dependent variable is measured before introduction of the treatment.
Step.2: The treatment is introduced.
Step.3: The dependent variable is measured after the treatment has been introduced.
Step.4: Inference:
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The effect of the Treatment : The level o the phenomenon after the treatment.
The level of the phenomenon before the treatment.
Test Area Level of Phenomenon
Treatment Level of
Phenomenon
Introduced
Before Treatment (X)
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Step.1: Two Areas are selected, the control Area & the test area.
Step.2: The treatment is introduced in the test area alone.
Step.3: The dependent variable in both the areas are measured, at the same time.
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Test Area
Control Area
Treatment Introduced
No
Treatment
(3) Before And After with Control Design:
Step.1: In this design, two areas are selected and the dependent variables in both the
areas are measured for an identical time period before treatment.
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Offer relatively more control and use specific statistical procedures for analysis types,
1)Complete Randomized design (Generally called C.R. Design)
2)Randomized Block Design (R.B. Design)
3)Latin Square Design (L.S. Design)
4)Factorial Designs .
(1) Completely Randomized Design : Involves two principals, the principle of replication and the principle of Randomized of
the experimental designs.
The items are randomly assigned do experimental treatments.
This design is simpler and easier.
Example: It the research has 2 items of 20 parts and if he wishes to test to under
treatment B, this completely randomized design gives every possible group of 10
items selected from a set of 20, an equal chance of being assigned to treatment A &
treatment B.
One way analysis of variance (one way ANOVA) is used to analyze such a design.
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2. Randomizes Block Design: The subjects or items are first divided into groups, known as Blocks
See that, the items in each group or black is homogenous.
Randomly select items from each given block and assign treatment.
Extraneous variables can be fixed and can be measured.
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The main feature of this study is, each treatment appears the same no of times in each
block.
This design is analyzed two way analyses of variance (two way ANOVA) technique.
3. Latin Square Design: Used in Agricultural Research.
L.S Design is used when two or more extraneous variables is found.
Example: Effect of fertilizer on the field of wheat is do be determined.
Here along with the effect of fertilizer, the fertility of the soil must be considered.
If the facility of the soil is not considered along with the fertilizer the result obtained
may be dependable.
Similarly the impact of the various seeds used many also vary the yield.
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II
III
X1
B C D
X2
C D E
X3
D E
X4
X5
B C D
Conclusion :
IV
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The field is divided into several blocks (I, II, III, IV & V) and there are variety of fertilizer
(X1, X2, X3, X4, X5).
But each fertilizer is used in each block only once.
4. Factorial Design :
Are used in experiments where the effect of the depended variable, when affected by
more than one variable is to be determined.
Used in social & economic studies where usually large no of factors affect a particular
problem.
Factorial design are of two types:
I . Simple Factorial design
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Advantage :
Accuracy
OBSERVATION
Observation is defined as a planned method of watching that involves constraints
(steps) to improve accuracy.
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Characteristics of Observation :
i. Observation are direct
ii. takes place in natural situations
iii. Less Structured.
iv. Makes only quantitative study.
Applicable in :
1. Life styles
2. Encounters / Settlement.
3. Relationships
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4. Groups / Organization.
Acc. to Block & Camion :
1. Observed in natural surroundings
2. Understands events affecting social relations.
3. Identifies regulatives in social life.
4. Hypothesis free enquiry.
5. Avoids manipulations of independent variable.
6. Recording is not selective.
Differentiate Experimental Technique & Observation Technique :
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Experimental
Technique
Observation Technique
No such controls
Few Controls.
Not Always
Observation is natural
conducted in large unit.
Conducted in smaller
Fewer subjects are
units
watched for long
No so. Study is towards
period .Study is directed
sharpening the judgment. towards sensitizing the
observer / events.
No so.
Behavior observed is
more different.
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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
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occur.
2.Sample Space:- A set of possible outcomes of a random experiment is know as sample
space.
Example: When a coin is tossed twice the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH & TT, IT is
represented,
S = (HH, HT, TH, TT)
3.An Event: Any possible outcome of an experiment is know as an event.
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Example: When a dice is thrown, the probability of odd Numbers turn up are complimentary
to even number turn up.
A = 1,3,5
A1 = 2,4,6
e. Mutually Exclusive Event:
occurrence of B.
Example: When a coin is tossed once the occurrence of Head prevents the occurrence of
Tail.
If A and B are mutually exclusive events than the probability of occurrence of A or B is the
sum of their individuals probability.
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(ii) Each trail can result in just two possible outcomes. We call one of this outcomes as
Success and the other Failure .
(iii) The probability of success is denoted by P, in every trail and the probability of
failure is denoted by l p or q.
(iv) The trials are independent.
(v) The outcome on one trail dose not affect the outcome of other trials.
Notations:
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Coefficient of Binomial Distribution: The binomial coefficients are the coefficients in the
expansion of two terms (x + 1)n.
The coefficient of xr in (x+1)n is denoted by nCr or (n/r).
Example: The coefficient of (x+1)2 = (x+1) (x+1)
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= 1x2 + x +x+1
= 1x2 + 2x +1
The Confidents are = 1+2+1
The coefficient of (x+1)3
= (x2+2x+1) (x+1)
= x3 + x2 +2x2 +2x +x+1
= x3 + 3x2 +3x +1
The Coefficient is
= 1. 3 .3 1
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1
1
1
1 4
2 1
3
6
(x+1)2
1
(x+1)3
4 1
(x+1)4
1 5 10 10 5 1
(x+1) 5
1 6 15 20 15 6 1
(x+1)6
1 7
21 35 35 21 7 1
(x+1)7
Example: A coin is tossed Four Times what is the probability of obtaining two or more
heads? .
Step I : When a coin is tossed One time, the probability of Head of tail is equal,
(ie) P = q =1/2.
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Step II : The various possibilities of Head and tail events will be,
(p+q)4 = 1p4 + 4p3q +6p3q + 6p2q2 + 4pq3 +1q4
------------------------------------------------------------1p4 = (1/2) where P = 1/2) (q = 1/2.)
= x x x 1/2
= 1/16
4p3q = 4x(1/2)3 x = 4 x x x x
6p2q2 = 6 x(1/2 x x x1/2 = 3/8
Therefore, the probability of obtaining 2 or more heads is,
3/8 + + 1/16 = 11/16
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2. POSSION DISTRIBUTION:
When P is very small (Success rate is extremely small) and n is very large (total no
of trail items of events is large) then POISSON distribution is used.
P O (Successes approach zero) (np = m is finite)
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Notations:
e = A constant equal to approximately 2.71828.
u = The mean (average) no of success that occurs in a specific region.
Example: The average no of homes sold by A really company is 2 Homes per day. What is
the probability that exactly 3 homes will be sold tomorrow?.
u = 2 (Average of 2 homes sold per day)
x = 3 (3 homes will be sold tomorrow)
e = 2.71828 (Constant)
Poisson Formula:
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= 0.180
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Normal Equation:
The value of the random variable Y is - (x u) /2
1
Y=
C (Coefficient)
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is constant (3.14159)
e is constant (2.71828)
Standard Deviation:
Represented by it means how much variance (difference) or dispersion exist from
the average.
Example:
= Variance (Root of its variance let us consider a population has eight values,
2,4,4,4,5,5,7,9.
Mean: 2+4+4+4+5+5+7+9
------------------------8
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= 40/8 = 5 1) difference between the mean & the mean & the valiance value is
taken.
= 1 ( 4 5) = (-1) =1 (7 5) = 2 = 4
(5 5) = (0) = 0
Rate of 9+1+1+1+0+0+4+16 38
---------------------------- = = 4/8
8
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Example: An average light bulb manufactured by Acme Corporation lasts 300days with a
standard deviation of 50 days. Assuming that the bull life is normally distributed what is
the probability that an Acme light bulb will last at most 365 days?
Answer: The value of the normal Random valuable (X) = 365 days.
The mean (u) = 300 days standard deviation = 50 days.
Normal Distribution Y = 1 x e(xu)
2
1
=
502 x 3.14159 x 2.71828 (365 300) /2 x 50
1
=
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