Vol.

: 303
18th July,2016

Index

MarketView
1 Market View
High valuations but buying by FIIs still continues

CompanyUpdate
2 The market has conquered 8500 level and sustains at this level comfortably. The world market is also in

positive trajectory. The four triggers of GST, Monsoon, Earnings and new RBI Governor have pushed
Aroundthe
the market to this level. The monsoon has reasonably progressed throughout India till date. There is
Economy

3 some positivity for passing of GST Bill this time. The earning season has started with moderate note. As

expected the quarterly results of technology companies are not that great and the next quarter is also
KnowledgeCorner 3 going to be a challenging one. The market looks forward for the results of banking and financial sector,
the infra sector, capital goods, cement, pharma and so on. The overall expectations from earning front

MutualFund
4 by the market are higher in second quarter rather than the first one. Under the circumstances, the
chance of major correction in the market seems less. It is also important to watch the progress on GST

front. The continuous buying by FII has proved to be a major positive factor in the market. Technically
CommodityCorner5
there is a strong support at 8500-8400-8320-8150. The resistance of the market is at 8620-8650.

ForexCorner
6
Kamal Jhaveri

ReportCard
7 M D - J h a v e r i S e c u r i t i e s

ShortTermCallStatus8

Editor&Contributor
MargiShah

SpecialContributors
AsheshTrivedi
AdityaNahar

Forsuggestions,feedback
andqueries
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com

-1-

Vol.: 303
18th July,2016

Company Update : Capital First Ltd.

Company Basics

Financial Basics

532938

FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)

10.00
17.2

NSE Symbol

CAPF

P/E (x) (TTM)

31.1

EQUITY (` in Cr.)

90.98

MKT.CAP (` in Cr.)

149.74

P/BV (x) (TTM)

BETA
RONW (%)

BSE Code

181.88
1.31
8.38

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name
Foreign
Institutions
Promoters
Non. Promoters
Public & Others
Govt Holding

% Holding
8.37
9.91
65.2
1.43
15.09
0.00

Valuation : CAPITAL FIRST is trading at ` 620. We recommend Accumulate with target price of ` 660 , valuing

stock 30xFY18E EPS of `22.The stock currently trades at 30x of FY16E, 27.93xof FY17E and 22.98x of FY18E.
Company Overview

Capital First (CAPF) is the retail financing NBFC formed in 2012 as a result of a management buyout of an
existing NBFC. Post Mr. Vaidyanathan taking reigns in FY11 and revamping the business model, the wholesale
lending entity was catapulted to grow into a strong retail NBFC. CAPF lays greater thrust on retail, SME and
wholesale segments; within retail CAPF offers LAP, two-wheelers and consumer durable loans. Catering to the
underserved traditional market, CAPF has carved its own niche in the MSME and two-wheelers segment and is
poised to replicate success on the lines of Bajaj Finance in the consumer finance market.
Investment rational

Strong AUM growth with the shift towards retail assets

CFL has been able to manage AUM (assets under management) CAGR of 44% over FY11-FY15 on the back of focused strategy, strong processes, superior financing skills, strong promoter and the ability to raise funds on time.
Retail AUM posted 90% CAGR over FY11-FY15, whereas corporate
CFL emerging as a specialized player in financing MSMEs
CFL emerging as a specialized player in financing MSMEs by offering different products for their various
financing needs. Capital First has a comprehensive product suite to meet the multiple financial needs of its
customers. Till date, the Company has financed more than 1.4 million customers, including more than 6,00,000
MSMEs. The Company provides finance to its customers with the help of contemporary scoring solutions and
sophisticated technology. The Company, through its extensive reach, provides essential debt capital to MSMEs in
a quick, affordable and convenient manner.
Diversified loan mix translating into robust AUMs
According to the needs of the customers, CAPF has carved its own niche in the under-presented traditional
market through its extensive reach. With greater focus on MSME, two wheelers and customer finance segment
CAPF caters to the under-served market characterized.
- 2-

Vol.:
303
18th July,2016

Around The World

Weekly Market Recap :

On the macro front, data released by government on 12 July 2016, showed that India's industrial production increased
1.2% in May 2016 over May 2015, while snapping 1.35% dip recorded in the previous month.
Data released by government on 12 July 2016, showed that inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) accelerated
to 5.77% in June 2016 from 5.76% in May 2016.
Data released by the government on 14 July 2016 showed that the inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI), rose to
1.62% (provisional) in June 2016 as compared to 0.79% (provisional) in May 2016 and -2.13% in June 2015.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a weekly report issued on 14 July 2016, that the southwest
monsoon has covered the entire country. For the country as a whole, the cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon
was 2% above the long period average (LPA) until 14 July 2016.

Market Eye Week ahead :

Meanwhile, investors are hopeful about passage of key bills including Goods & Services Tax (GST) Bill during the monsoon session of Parliament, with proceedings slated to begin from next week. GST, touted as the single biggest indirect
taxation reforms since independence, will simplify and harmonise the indirect tax regime in the country.

In US, data on housing starts for June, reflecting the commitment of builders to new construction activity in that month
will be out on Tuesday, 19 July 2016. Data on existing home sales for June, tallying the number of previously constructed
homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during that month will be released on Thursday, 21 July 2016.

Key Events / Factors to Watch

1. Mon: HUL, Exide Industries, Gruh finance, Mindtree earnings
2. Tue: Wipro, Ultratech cement, CRISIL,MPS earnings
3. Wed: DHFL, Hind Zinc, KPIT technologies, Gammon India, Kitex garments earnings

4. Thu: HDFC bank, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Cairn India, ABB India, Ashok Leyland, Biocon, Bharat Financial Inclusion,
Syngene International earnings

5. Fri : Axis bank, M&M financial, L&T Finance, Federal bank, Atul, Persistent Systems, Rallis India earnings
6. Sat :Havells India, Unichem Laboratories, Mphasis earnings

Knowledge Corner :
Securities Transaction Tax

STT is a kind of turnover tax where the investor has to pay a small tax on the total consideration paid or received in a share
transaction.
The STT applicable in the case of intraday transaction will be different from the one applicable in the case of delivery transaction.
Likewise, the STT applicable in the case of buying a security will be different from the one applicable in the case of selling the
security.
STT will be applicable in the case of transaction that takes place in the exchanges. For availing the exemption in the case of long-term
capital gain, the asset under consideration has to be subjected to STT.

- 3-

Vol.: 303
18th July,2016

Mutual Fund Corner

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Fund Name
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund

AMC

ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company

Type

Multi Cap

Category
Launch Date

Technology

8.24

Open-ended and Equity

Healthcare

8.05

August 2004

Construction

7.61

Services

6.68

Engineering

5.99

Automobile

5.27

Chemicals

3.32

Net Assets
(` In crore )

Rs. 13204.6 crore as on Jun 30, 2016

2014

2015

2016

62.15

107.99

113.86

120.73

Total Return (%)

8.31

73.76

5.44

6.03

+/-Nifty 50

1.55

42.37

9.50

1.29

+/- S&P BSE 500

5.06

36.80

6.26

1.44

Rank (Fund/Category)

9/47

25/78

37/187

33/155

52 Week High (Rs)

62.15

108.70

120.07

121.55

52 Week Low (Rs)

47.85

58.56

106.67

97.50

Net Assets (Rs.Cr)

2830.81

7367.40

Expense Ratio (%)

23.15
8.66
8.4

Mrinal Singh

NAV (Rs)

Financial
Energy
Diversified

Fund Manager

History

Fund (%)

Sector Weights

Scheme Name

2013

2.33

2.26

10664.05
2.24

12094.74
-

Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation

17.61

Sharpe Ratio

1.42

Beta

1.01
0.77

R-Squared
Alpha

17.20

Composition (%)
Equity

90.53

Debt

9.46

Cash

0.01

Fund Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

Fund Style
Investment Style
Growth

Blend

Value

Medium
Small

Fund
CNX Nify
(Rebased to 10,000)
- 4-

Capitalization

Large

Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com

Vol.: 303
18th July,2016

Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Last week, bullion prices ended with losses on improving global risk sentiment and a stronger dollar after better-than-expected U.S.
data. Prices reversed losses after Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said a group within the country's military has attempted to overthrow the government. Investors flocked to precious metals as the Brexit vote in June caused immediate turmoil across markets. After six weeks of gains, the longest
rally since March 2014, the metal has come under pressure this week, down 2.5 percent so far. It was hit by strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and as
uncertainty around the implications of Britain's Brexit vote eased with the formation of a new government. Three Federal Reserve policymakers expressed the view that there was no hurry to raise U.S. interest rates in the wake of the UK vote to leave the European Union, despite signs that the U.S.
economy is near full employment. The U.S. Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index rose by 0.2% in June, amid firming price pressures in services, transportation and medical care. The gains fell slightly below expectations of a 0.3% increase, one month after rising by 0.2% in May. On a yearly
basis, consumer prices rose by 1.0%, one month after rising by an upwardly revised 1.1%.The Core CPI Index, which strips out volatile food and energy
prices, increased by 0.2% in line with consensus estimates. At the same time, Core CPI over the last 12 months has shot up by 2.3%, slightly above
annual gains of 2.2% in May. Investors see just an 8 percent probability of a U.S. rate increase this month, according to Fed funds futures contracts.
Still, the chances of a move by September have risen to 23 percent, compared with just 2 percent at the start of the month. St. Louis Fed president
James Bullard, Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart and Dallas Fed president Rob Kaplan all reiterated that the FOMC should take a patient approach with the timing of future rate increases. Hedge funds and money managers again raised their net long positions in COMEX silver futures and
options to fresh record highs in the week to July 12, as spot prices hovered near two-year highs, data showed.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 30700 SL 30400 TGT 31200-31800. BUY SILVER @ 46500 SL 45500 TGT 47800-49500

BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL: Base metals prices rallied on weekly basis as economic growth numbers in China boosted confidence and left the door open for
more stimulus. China's economy expanded slightly faster than expected in the second quarter but private investment growth shrank to a record low,
suggesting future weakness which could pressure the government to roll out more support measures. The global nickel market deficit widened to
11,200 tonnes in May, as low prices weighed on refined output from top producer China, while demand slowly improved, data from the International
Nickel Study Group showed. Choppy seas off the coast of Chile caused widespread delays to copper shipments from the world's top producer in the
second half of June, potentially supporting prices in a market grappling with oversupply. Chinas primary nickel market remains in supply surplus after
large imports of nickel plate, despite consumption growth. Chinas refined nickel plate imports to keep growing in 2016, up by around 10 per cent. Copper stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped 9.3 percent, weekly data showed, a possible indication of weak demand or oversupply. Investors preferred to focus on hopes for another wave of government support for the economy. Copper also may have been supported after choppy seas off the coast of Chile caused widespread delays to copper shipments from the world's top producer in the second half of June.
Premiums for copper on a cost insurance and freight (CIF) basis to Shanghai rose by $2.50 to $45-$60 a tonne, the latest data showed, up from as low
as $35-45 in mid-June. Three Federal Reserve policymakers expressed the view that there was no hurry to raise U.S. interest rates in the wake of the
UK decision to leave the European Union. Shortly before the opening bell, the US Census Bureau unveiled its monthly release of retail sales in June,
following an upbeat figure booked previously. Japanese aluminium products makers such as UACJ Corp and Kobe Steel are boosting output capacity in
the United States in a bid to snare market share as automakers turn to the lighter metal to meet stricter environmental rules. The move is set to intensify
competition with rivals such as Alcoa that are aggressively investing in the world's second-biggest automobile market, and with steelmakers defending
their traditional auto business through the use of lighter products.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL ALUMINIUM @ 113 SL 115 TGT 110-107. SELL LEAD @ 128 SL 132 TGT 125-122. BUY COPPER @ 328 SL 320
TGT 335-345.ELL ZINC @ 151 SL 154 TGT 147-144. SELL NICKEL @ 710 SL 740 TGT 670-640

ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL : Crude oil rose after data from top energy consumers the United States and China boosted the oil demand outlook. Prices also seen
supported after Turkey's armed forces said they had taken power in the country to protect the democratic order and to maintain human rights. U.S.
gasoline demand soared last year on sales of gas-guzzling vehicles following a sharp drop in oil prices. China reported economic growth of 6.7 percent
in the second quarter, slightly ahead of market expectations, reflecting government efforts to stabilise growth. At the same time, China's domestic crude
oil production in the first six months of 2016 fell 4.6 percent to its lowest level since 2010. While the drop in prices over the last two years has led to a
sharp fall in production, investors remain concerned about high levels of oil and refined products in storage. U.S. gasoline stocks and European diesel
inventories have risen in recent weeks despite entering the peak seasonal summer demand period. Oil services firm Baker Hughes reported that U.S.
oil rigs rose by six to 357 for the week ending on July 8, increasing for the sixth time over the last seven weeks. Despite the continued gains, oil rigs
throughout the U.S. are still down by 281 over the last 12 months. The total rig count increased by six to 447, as gas rigs inched up by 1 to 90. During
the first week of June, the overall count moved higher for the first time in 2016 ending a 41-week drought. Natural gas prices dropped on weekly basis
on speculation that July heat wont prevent stockpiles from reaching a record before the winter. Unless intense summer heat boosts demand from
power plants, stockpiles will test physical storage limits of 4.3 trillion cubic feet at the end of October. Temperatures may be warmer than previously
expected in the central U.S. July 20 to July 24, and sweltering conditions are also forecast for the West from July 25 to July 29, according to MDA
Weather Services. Still, inventories of the heating and power-plant fuel are 22 percent above the five-year average for the time of year.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY CRUDE OIL @ 3000 SL 2880 TGT 3140-3250. BUY NATURAL GAS @ 177 SL 172 TGT 185-195

- 5-

Vol.: 303
18th July,2016

Commodity Corner

Forex Corner

Market Recap :

The Indian rupee on Monday weakened against the

US dollar, while 10-year bond yield gained after
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram
Rajan ruled out a rate cut in the next policy meeting.

The local currency opened at 67.14 a dollar. The

home currency was trading at 67.17, down 0.15%
from its previous close of 67.07.

The dollar index, which measures the US currencys

strength against major currencies, was trading at
96.51, down 0.07% from its previous close of 96.58.

Market Eye Week ahead :

The prices have been taking support of its rising trend line at 67 levels on daily chart. Price has formed bullish engulfing
pattern on daily chart. Moreover, price have been trading above its 21 hourly exponential moving average which suggest
near term remains up. So any dip in the prices towards 66.95 level, used as buying opportunity. A momentum indicator
RSI has moved above 40 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices. For now we expect prices to
move higher towards 67.60 levels in few trading sessions.

USD/INR
Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

USD/INR

66.73

66.94

67.16

67.37

67.59

67.37

66.94

67.16

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

EUR/INR

73.84

74.33

74.65

75.14

75.46

74.98

74.14

74.81

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

GBP/INR

85.30

87.58

88.94

91.22

91.58

90.31

86.67

89.85

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

JPY/INR

60.61

62.07

64.48

65.94

68.35

66.89

63.02

63.53

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

-- 46--

Vol.: 303
18th July,2016

J Street Recommendations Report Card

Nifty last week opened at 8541.40, attained a low at 8407.04 and moved up to 8594.79. Nifty finally closed the week at 8541.40
thereby showed net rise of 218 points on week to week basis, Weaker opening and correction to 8514-8434 can be used for buying
with a stop loss of 7927. Expect higher range of 8621-8809 to be tested. Further rally can continue on rise and close above 8655. The
next lower tops are 8655, 8844 and the top 9119.

Macroeconomic data, next batch of Q1 results of India Inc., progress of monsoon rains, proceedings of the monsoon session of
Parliament, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the
movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term.

Top Fundamental Stocks

Rec. Date

CMP on Rec.

CMP

Target

Absolute
Return @
CMP

Status

Capital First

06/06/2016

552

620

660

12%

Accumulate

Wonderla Holidays

25/04/2016

387

390

498

1%

Accumulate

Mold-Tek Packaging

04/04/2016

138

190

179

38%

Buy

Jamna Auto

22/02/2016

133

171

181

28%

Buy

MT Educare

01/02/2016

164

156

230

-5%

Buy

Garware-Wall Ropes

28/12/2015

425

406

550

-5%

Buy

AYM Syntax

23/11/2015

121

99

223

-18%

Buy

Natco Pharma

02/11/2015

509

585

636

15%

Buy

SRF

21/09/2015

1140

1340

1374

18%

Buy

Ahluwalia contracts

24/08/2015

235

276

368

18%

Buy

20/07/2015

190

205

255

8%

Buy

04/05/2015

298

290

430

-3%

Buy

16/03/2015

152

147

251

-4%

Buy

DHFL

16/02/2015

252

217

368

-14%

Accumulate

TV Today Network

27/01/2015

222

285

337

28%

Buy

M&M

12/01/2015

1238

1467

1452

19%

Buy

Havells India

27/10/2014

274

358

346

31%

Buy

PTC India Fin. Ser.

07/07/2014

39

40

45

3%

Buy

Adani Port

05/07/2014

280

217

347

-22%

Accumulate

Stocks

Infinite Computer
Sol.
Sadbhav
Engineering Ltd.
Omkar speciality
Chemicals

It'snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandhow
muchyoulosewhenyou'rewrong.
- 7-

Vol.: 303
18th July,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

RANGE

1Jun16

SBIN

BUY

200

206

2Jun16

ACC

BUY

3Jun16

YESBANK

6Jun16

7Jun16

SL

STATUS

%
RETURN

214

192

TA

4.4

1535

1575 1555.00 1600

1505

EXPIRE

0.0

BUY

1035

1065 1050.00 1110.00

1005

TA

3.3

TATAMOTORS BUY

451

461

456.00

482

438

TA

5.7

BUY

105

109

107.00

114

103

TA

6.2

ULTRACEMCO BUY

3310

3370 3340.00 3520

3240

SL

3.0

HINDALCO

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE
203.00

8Jun16

9Jun16

SIEMENS

BUY

1251

1275 1263.00 1330

1225

EXPIRE

0.0

10Jun16

SIEMENS

BUY

1240

1265 1252.50 1330.00

1200

EXPIRE

0.0

13Jun16

LUPIN

SELL

1430

1460 1445.00 1400.00

1370

SL

3.00

10

14Jun16

YESBANK

BUY

1054

1080 1067.00 1130

1030

TA

4.30

11

15Jun16

VOLTAS

BUY

327

333

340

318

EXPIRE

0.0

12

16Jun16

HDFCBANK

BUY

1150

1170 1160.00 1220

1135

EXPIRE

0.0

13

17Jun16

VEDL

BUY

121

124

118

TA

4.20

14

20Jun16

GODREJCP

BUY

1518

1548 1533.00 1580.00

1480

TA

3.50

15

21Jun16

GODREJIND

BUY

367

373

370.00 380.00

358

TA

3.70

16

22Jun16

BANKINDIA

BUY

95

97

96.00

92

TA

4.10

17

23Jun16

HDFC

BUY

1228

1252 1240.00 1275.00

1200

OPEN

0.0

18

24Jun16

BAJAJAUTO

BUY

2654

2705 2679.50 2750.00

2600

TA

3.00

19

27Jun16

BAJAJAUTO

BUY

2654

2705 2750.00 2810.00

2600

TA

3.00

20

28Jun16

ULTRACEMCO BUY

3365

3433 3500.00 3565.00

3300

OPEN

0.0

21

29Jun16

BRITANNIA

SELL

2723

2777

2680 2663.00

2830

SL

3.60

22

30Jun16

SKSMICRO

BUY

725

745

760.00 775.00

705

TA

5.00

23

4Jul16

LT

BUY

1525

1555 1540.00 1615.00

1485

TA

3.20

- 7-

330.00

122.50

126

100.00

Vol.: 303
18th July,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

24

5Jul16

ICICIBANK

BUY

245

250

25

7Jul16

RELINFRA

BUY

565

575

26

8Jul16

DRREDDY

BUY

27

11Jul16

ASIANPAINT BUY

28

12Jul16

CANBK

29

13Jul16

30

14Jul16

31

15Jul16

STATUS

CMP

%
RETURN

247.50 262.00

236

TA

5.50

570.00 597.00

550

OPEN

0.0

3500

3550 3525.00 3700.00

3400

OPEN

0.0

1005

1025 1015.00 1065.00

975

OPEN

0.0

BUY

232

238

235.00 248.00

224

TA

5.50

VEDL

BUY

158

162

160.00 169.00

154

TA

5.60

GAIL

BUY

387

394

390.50 400.00

375

OPEN

0.0

BANKBARODA BUY

160

166

163.00 170.00

156

OPEN

0.0

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB

16

87.5

SL+EXIT

12.5

TOTAL

24

100

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE

SL

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)

- 7-

Vol.: 303
18th July,2016