NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Wednesday, July 20 2016 at 6:00AM

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll was conducted online from July 15, 2016 through July 18, 2016. Results are among a national
sample of 3,646 registered voters (+/-2.3).
TOPLINE RESULTS
In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
7/157/18

Republican
31

Democrat
33

Independent
35

No answer
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR
PARTY]
7/157/18

Republican
Party
34

Democratic
Party
24

Neither
39

No answer
3

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mike Pence?

7/157/18

Strongly
favorable
11

Somewhat
favorable
15

Somewhat
unfavorable
9

Strongly
unfavorable
17

Dont know
enough to say
48

No answer
1

As you may know, Donald Trump selected Governor of Indiana Mike Pence as his Vice Presidential running mate. Would you say
it was a good choice, a bad choice or dont you know enough to say?
7/157/18

Good choice
27

Bad choice
18

Dont know
enough to say
53

No answer
2

Did Donald Trumps decision to pick Mike Pence as Vice President to make you more likely to vote for him, less likely or did it not
make any difference?

7/157/18

More likely
12

Less likely
10

No difference
76

No answer
2

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll was conducted online from July 15, 2016 through July 18, 2016 among a national sample 3,646 adults age 18
and over who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on
the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status
using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. An
additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews is included. The smoothing parameter was derived
from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of the Weekly Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 2.3 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total RVs

Unweighted N
3646

Plus or minus
2.3

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

1032
1188

4.4
3.9

Male
Female

1859
1787

2.9
3.2

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

200
367
513
784
1000
782

9.1
6.7
6.2
4.9
4.4
5.0

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

2820
316
256
254

2.6
7.6
8.7
8.6