Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
04 July 2016
BRS Research
30,827
208
52 week High/Low
Revenue
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
7,058
7,793
8,593
9,952
11,165
12,742
Trading Snapshot
1,138
20.26%
30.00/19.90
15.2%
10.4%
10.3%
15.8%
12.2%
14.1%
-8.87%
EBIT recurring
1,863
1,966
1,784
2,264
2,811
3,154
12.92%
26.4%
25.2%
20.8%
22.7%
25.2%
24.8%
756
1,055
908
1,507
1,669
1,964
0.75
0.96
0.80
1.33
1.47
1.73
68.1%
28.5%
-16.9%
66.0%
10.8%
17.7%
6.36
4.23
5.29
5.26
6.03
6.90
P/E (x)
15.3
23.1
25.3
18.1
18.5
15.7
P/BV (x)
1.8
5.2
3.8
4.6
4.5
3.9
15.8%
45.7%
0.26
19.0%
59.5%
0.50
17.0%
53.8%
0.55
25.1%
53.1%
2.39
26.0%
50.5%
0.70
26.7%
47.8%
0.85
ROE %
Gearing (%)
DPS (LKR)
Beta
0.63
Valuation Summary
CMP (LKR)
27.10
29.74
DPS (LKR)
0.70
30.44
Valuation method
DCF method
Total Return %
12.3%
Rating
Buy
ASPI
8,000
LKR
ASIR
32
30
7,500
28
7,000
26
6,500
24
22
6,000
20
5,500
18
5,000
Apr-15
16
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
EPS
LKR
1.60
1.35
1.10
0.85
0.60
0.35
0.10
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 1
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and
Disclaimer section at the end of this report.
2017E
2018E
04 July 2016
12,742
2018E
2018E
12%
3,154
2018E
2018E
12%
16%
10%
10%
7,058
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
1,863
6%
-9%
2013
2014
2015
ROCE
2016
ROCE %
2017E
ROE
ROE %
29%
19%
24%
17%
15%
19%
13%
14%
11%
9%
9%
4%
2013
EBITDA margin
%
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
EBIT margin %
37%
35%
28%
33%
26%
31%
24%
29%
22%
27%
25%
20%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
Page 2
Source: ASIR Annual Reports and BRS Equity Research
Q4 FY 16 Performance
Q4 FY 16
Q4 FY 15
Q3 FY 16
2,645
2,189
2,598
20.8%
9.7%
18.7%
1.8%
0.0%
8.4%
340
168
659
0.27
0.12
0.56
129.1%
75.8%
123.1%
-52.2%
-53.4%
145.2%
5.26
5.29
5.07
ROCE %
14.9%
12.1%
13.6%
ROE %
25.1%
17.0%
23.3%
113.2%
116.3%
23.3%
53.1%
53.8%
50.5%
3.6
3.6
3.5
12.1
12.8
12.0
Valuation estimates
Based on a free cash flow valuation we have arrived at a target price of LKR 29.74. Our
valuations are based on the following estimates.
WACC 12.4%
Terminal Growth rate 3%
Risk-free rate 11.82% (Five year bond rate)
Beta 0.63 (Based on ASIR vs. ASPI movement)
Equity risk premium 5%
Terminal growth
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29.74
10.06%
10.56%
11.06%
11.82%
13.06%
13.56%
14.06%
2%
30.92
29.86
28.86
27.42
25.30
24.51
23.76
3%
33.85
32.60
31.42
29.74
27.29
26.39
25.53
4%
37.55
36.04
34.61
32.61
29.72
28.66
27.66
Page 3
Financial Analysis
Income Statement - Asiri Hospital Holdings PLC
Year Ending 31st March (LKR mn)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
Total Revenue
7,058
7,793
8,593
9,952
11,165
12,742
YoY growth %
15.2%
10.4%
10.3%
15.8%
12.2%
14.1%
3,241
ASIR
2,121
2,329
2,441
2,730
2,992
YoY growth %
12.2%
9.8%
4.8%
11.8%
9.6%
8.3%
AMSL
2,244
2,395
2,654
2,922
3,146
3,438
YoY growth %
Other - The Central+Matara Medi House+Asiri
Matara+Diagnostic Services
13.7%
6.7%
10.8%
10.1%
7.6%
9.3%
2,693
3,069
3,499
4,300
5,028
6,062
YoY growth %
19.1%
14.0%
14.0%
22.9%
16.9%
20.6%
(635)
(661)
(668)
(699)
(762)
(773)
1,862
1,963
2,293
2,266
2,811
3,154
EBIT margin %
26.4%
25.2%
26.7%
22.8%
25.2%
24.8%
YoY growth %
11.8%
5.4%
16.8%
-1.2%
24.0%
12.2%
Total depreciation
ASIR
1,143
1,442
1,099
1,193
1,331
1,425
EBIT margin %
53.9%
61.9%
45.0%
43.7%
44.5%
44.0%
YoY growth %
59.1%
26.2%
-23.8%
8.5%
11.6%
7.1%
AMSL
1,797
433
401
467
531
579
EBIT margin %
80.1%
18.1%
15.1%
16.0%
16.9%
16.8%
215.6%
-75.9%
-7.3%
16.4%
13.6%
9.1%
(1,078)
88
793
606
949
1,150
YoY growth %
Other - The Central+Matara Medi House+Asiri
Matara+Diagnostic Services
Non-recurring items
(0.53)
(2.35)
508.83
2.78
1,863
1,966
1,784
2,264
2,811
3,154
YoY growth %
11.8%
5.5%
-9.2%
26.9%
24.2%
12.2%
EBIT margin %
26.4%
25.2%
20.8%
22.7%
25.2%
24.8%
2,497
2,626
2,452
2,963
3,572
3,927
YoY growth %
EBITDA margin %
9.7%
5.2%
-6.6%
20.8%
20.6%
9.9%
35.4%
33.7%
28.5%
29.8%
32.0%
30.8%
Finance Income
Finance Cost
28
43
151
160
160
(734)
(606)
(593)
(611)
(704)
(671)
(130)
Exchange loss
(59)
(19)
513
1,106
1,388
1,235
1,804
2,267
2,644
YoY growth %
50.3%
25.4%
-11.0%
46.1%
25.7%
16.6%
(139)
(162)
(161)
(165)
(303)
(333)
967
1,225
1,074
1,638
1,964
2,311
YoY growth %
51.9%
26.7%
-12.4%
52.5%
19.9%
17.7%
NP Margin %
13.7%
15.7%
12.5%
16.5%
17.6%
18.1%
756
1,055
908
1,507
1,669
1,964
Minority Interest
211
170
166
131
295
347
0.75
0.96
0.80
1.33
1.47
1.73
0.75
0.96
1.25
1.33
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Page 4
Financial Analysis
Income Statement - Asiri Hospital Holdings PLC
2016
Q1 17E
Q2 17E
Q3 17E
Q4 17E
2017E
2018E
Total Revenue
9,952
2,571
2,687
2,916
2,991
11,165
12,742
YoY growth %
15.8%
11.1%
12.2%
12.2%
13.1%
12.2%
14.1%
3,241
ASIR
2,730
691
727
777
797
2,992
YoY growth %
11.8%
7.2%
10.8%
13.1%
7.2%
9.6%
8.3%
AMSL
2,922
725
782
826
813
3,146
3,438
YoY growth %
Other - The Central+Matara Medi House+Asiri
Matara+Diagnostic Services
10.1%
6.4%
9.4%
6.1%
8.7%
7.6%
9.3%
4,300
1,155
1,179
1,313
1,381
5,028
6,062
YoY growth %
22.9%
16.9%
14.9%
15.9%
19.7%
16.9%
20.6%
(699)
(190)
(190)
(191)
(191)
(762)
(773)
3,154
Total depreciation
EBIT including non-recurring items
2,266
577
611
931
692
2,811
EBIT margin %
22.8%
22.5%
22.7%
31.9%
23.2%
25.2%
24.8%
YoY growth %
-1.2%
14.3%
31.1%
14.2%
44.1%
24.0%
12.2%
ASIR
1,193
241
257
541
292
1,331
1,425
EBIT margin %
43.7%
34.8%
35.4%
69.7%
36.7%
44.5%
44.0%
YoY growth %
8.5%
17.8%
22.7%
9.6%
2.5%
11.6%
7.1%
467
119
132
142
139
531
579
EBIT margin %
16.0%
16.4%
16.8%
17.1%
17.0%
16.9%
16.8%
YoY growth %
Other - The Central+Matara Medi House+Asiri
Matara+Diagnostic Services
16.4%
23.3%
22.3%
-3.8%
19.8%
13.6%
9.1%
606
218
222
248
262
949
1,150
AMSL
Non-recurring items
2,264
577
611
931
692
2,811
3,154
YoY growth %
26.9%
14.3%
30.9%
14.0%
45.4%
24.2%
12.2%
EBIT margin %
22.7%
22.5%
22.7%
31.9%
23.2%
25.2%
24.8%
2,963
767
801
1,121
884
3,572
3,927
YoY growth %
20.8%
13.2%
25.3%
13.1%
34.9%
20.6%
9.9%
EBITDA margin %
29.8%
29.8%
29.8%
38.5%
29.5%
32.0%
30.8%
Finance Income
2.78
151
40
40
40
40
160
160
Finance Cost
(611)
(179)
(177)
(175)
(173)
(704)
(671)
Exchange loss
(130)
1,804
439
474
795
559
2,267
2,644
YoY growth %
46.1%
13.0%
28.1%
9.2%
76.3%
25.7%
16.6%
(165)
(59)
(63)
(110)
(71)
(303)
(333)
1,638
379
411
685
489
1,964
2,311
YoY growth %
52.5%
12.6%
36.0%
4.0%
43.7%
19.9%
17.7%
NP Margin %
16.5%
14.8%
15.3%
23.5%
16.3%
17.6%
18.1%
1,507
323
349
582
415
1,669
1,964
131
57
62
103
73
295
347
1.33
0.28
0.31
0.51
0.37
1.47
1.73
1.33
Minority Interest
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Page 5
Financial Analysis
Statement of Financial Position - Asiri Hospital Holdings PLC
Year Ending 31st March (LKR mn)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
10,313
10,090
10,839
12,347
12,490
12,701
Leasehold properties
184
272
1,018
1,007
1,003
999
Intangible Assets
565
549
549
549
549
549
102
213
Investment Property
2,040
2,185
2,698
432
598
13,203
13,740
15,701
13,910
14,048
14,255
Inventories
315
341
381
444
598
751
509
689
374
970
658
887
429
609
609
609
371
275
150
117
239
273
406
406
406
1,604
2,965
Current Assets
17
161
189
1,247
289
1,802
1,500
2,513
2,835
4,115
5,891
15,005
15,240
18,215
16,745
18,163
20,146
Share Capital
3,902
3,902
3,902
4,748
4,748
4,748
Capital Reserves
1,620
(74)
(753)
(548)
(548)
(548)
130
296
(129)
(129)
(129)
Total assets
Equity and liabilities
907
696
2,575
1,911
2,784
3,782
6,430
4,654
6,021
5,982
6,856
7,853
Minority Interest
1,148
997
1,183
984
1,278
1,625
Total Equity
7,578
5,651
7,204
6,966
8,134
9,478
4,321
6,077
7,033
6,159
6,212
6,512
Non-Current Liabilities
Interest bearing borrowings
Non Interest bearing borrowings
42
38
34
63
63
63
93
380
224
183
183
183
223
247
345
353
409
435
4,680
6,743
7,636
6,757
6,867
7,193
585
552
373
1,143
897
1,092
78
23
54
98
138
156
Current Liabilities
Trade and other payables
Income tax liabilities
Dividend payable
Amounts due to related parties
Interest bearing loans and borrowings
Non interest bearing loans and borrowings
Total liabilities
Total equity and liabilities
28
-
34
-
43
46
1,553
46
46
2,053
2,233
1,347
1,725
2,071
10
10
2,171
10
2,748
2,846
3,375
3,021
3,162
3,475
7,428
9,589
11,011
9,779
10,029
10,668
15,005
15,240
18,215
16,745
18,163
20,146
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Page 6
Financial Analysis
Cashflow Statement - Asiri Hospital Holdings PLC
Year Ending 31st March (LKR mn)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
1,862
1,963
2,293
2,266
2,811
3,154
629
657
664
697
758
769
(1)
(2)
(5)
4.1
14
Gratuity
Impairement loss
Investment income
Other
Operating Profit/(loss) before Working Capital Changes
Changes in working capital
Cash generated from operations
Finance cost paid
44
-
13
-
52
8
-
68
(53)
(74)
(33)
(84)
19
2,206
2,518
(234)
(184)
1,972
2,334
(734)
(3)
(75)
52
(201)
4
-
71
(195)
Gratuity paid
Income taxes paid
2
-
52
-
2,510
2,619
3,624
3,979
1,511
(1,093)
(210)
(221)
4,021
1,526
3,414
3,759
(606)
564
(611)
(704)
(671)
(27)
(16)
(63)
(24)
(26)
(156)
(103)
(166)
(263)
(314)
(18)
(18)
1,142
1,527
4,466
686
2,423
2,748
(489)
(317)
(874)
(1,050)
(900)
(980)
436
38
10
2,700
(2,361)
(1,866)
(2,453)
(23)
(846)
31
(735)
(535)
53
64
33
201
160
160
(2,301)
(2,673)
(1,590)
(42)
(740)
(820)
(796)
(967)
(548)
(601)
(541)
(224)
(143)
(221)
(93)
(15)
(4)
(4)
(641)
2,085
400
400
Lease repayments
Proceeds from Issue of shares to minority/Rights issue/Private placement
(4)
878
-
(4)
2,209
74
-
(1,050)
-
(4)
29
869
1,329
241
(1,260)
(396)
(567)
(291)
182
3,117
(616)
1,286
1,361
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Page 7
No.of Shares
% holding
418,007,865
36.75
Merrill Lynch Pierce Fenner & Smith-TPG Growth III SF Pte Ltd
328,258,325
28.86
47,033,338
4.13
36,148,930
3.18
35,536,611
3.12
26,184,018
2.30
26,184,018
2.30
23,689,854
2.08
23,151,323
2.04
10
9,375,000
0.82
11
Mr. P P Subasinghe
8,109,090
0.71
12
5,500,000
0.48
13
5,379,574
0.47
14
4,905,390
0.43
15
3,523,601
0.31
16
3,441,720
0.30
17
Dr. W.M.S.Welagedara
3,375,000
0.30
18
3,036,050
0.27
19
3,000,000
0.26
20
3,000,000
0.26
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Page 8
DISCLAIMER
Important Disclosures
This report was prepared by Strategic Research Limited for clients of Bartleet Religare Securities.
Special Disclosures
Special Disclosures for certain additional disclosure statements (if applicable).
Intended Recipients
This report is intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above and may contain information that is confidential and privileged. It is intended only
for the perusal of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and others who are authorized to receive it. If you are not the intended recipient of this report,
you are hereby on notice that any disclosure, dissemination, distribution, copying or taking action relying on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited
and illegal.
BRS, is not liable for the accurate and complete transmission of the information contained herein nor any delay in its receipt. If you have received this email in
error, please notify us immediately by return email and please destroy the original message
This report is not intended for citizens (individual or corporate) based in the United States of America.
Analyst Certification
Each of the analysts identified in this report certifies, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyses, that the views expressed in this report
reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and all of the securities and No part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or
indirectly dependent on the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. If the lead analyst holds shares of the coverage; that will be listed here.
Stock Ratings
Recommendation
Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months
Buy
More than 10%
Hold
Between 10% and 0
Sell
Less than 0%
Expected absolute returns are based on the share price at market close unless otherwise stated. Stock recommendations are based on absolute upside (downside)
and have a 12-month horizon. Our target price represents the fair value of the stock based upon the analysts discretion. We note that future price fluctuations
could lead to a temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock and our recommendation.
General Disclaimers
This report is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information purposes.
SRL has not taken any measures to guarantee in any way that the securities referred to herein are suitable investments for any particular investor. SRL
will not under any circumstance, consider recipients as its customers by virtue of them receiving the report. The investments or services contained or
referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is highly recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in
any doubt about such investments or related services.
Further, nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or
appropriate to your individual circumstances, investment needs or otherwise construes a personal recommendation to you.
Information and opinions presented herein were obtained or derived from sources that SRL believes to be relied upon, but SRL makes no representations or warranty, express or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness or correctness.
SRL accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report.
Past performance should not be taken as any indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
made regarding future performance.
Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment of its original date of publication by SRL and are subject to change
without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The
value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of
such securities.
SRL may or may not seek to do business with companies covered in our research report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have
a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of research produced by SRL. Investors should consider our research as only a single factor in
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This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercise of independent judgment. SRL may have issued, and may in the future issue, a
trading call regarding this security. Trading calls are short term trading opportunities based on market events and catalysts, while stock ratings reflect
investment recommendations based on expected absolute return over a 12-month period as defined in the disclosure section. Because trading calls
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