Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
August 5, 2015
Rating matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside
:
:
:
:
JK Cement (JKCEME)
Hold
| 710
9-12 months
7%
Whats changed?
Target
EPS FY16E
EPS FY17E
Rating
Quarterly performance
Q1FY16
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
PAT
Q1FY15
810.7
84.4
10.4
0.2
| 662
YoY (%)
801.4
1.2
98.5
(14.3)
12.3 -188 bps
38.0
(99.6)
911.4
(11.0)
159.1
(47.0)
17.5 -705 bps
69.8
(99.8)
Key financials
| Crore
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Net Sales
2,783.6
3,337.3
3,924.1
4,692.4
EBITDA
Net Profit
360.6
444.0
555.1
717.7
91.0
156.9
164.0
283.1
13.0
22.4
23.4
40.5
FY17E
EPS (|)
Valuation summary
FY14
FY15
FY16E
P/E
50.9
29.5
28.2
16.4
Target P/E
49.5
28.7
27.5
15.9
EV/EBITDA
18.2
15.2
11.8
9.2
EV/Tonne($)
135
96
93
100
P/BV
RoNW (%)
2.6
5.2
2.8
9.5
2.6
9.1
2.2
13.5
RoCE (%)
5.5
7.3
9.7
12.5
The company has expanded its cement capacity by 3.0 MT in North India
during Q2FY15. Further, JK Cement also commissioned the grey cum white
cement plant with an installed capacity of 0.6 MTPA (white cement) and 1.02
MTPA (grey cement) in Fujairah (UAE), which would start providing full
benefit once demand improves. With stabilisation of this expanded capacity,
we expect the growth momentum to continue and project revenue CAGR of
over 18.6% in FY15-17E.
Demand environment in south to improve; Maharashtra a concern
Total 30% of the companys current capacity is in Karnataka (i.e. 3.0 MT), in
the southern region. The companys major markets in the south are
Maharashtra (with more than 50% share) while the balance quantum is sold
in Karnataka and Kerala. During the quarter, the southern region witnessed a
decline in realisation on a QoQ basis led by pricing pressure in Maharashtra.
However, going forward, we expect demand in Karnataka and Kerala to gain
traction post monsoons leading to better realisations in H2FY16E.
New efficient plants to help improve margins, going forward
Stock data
Amount
Particular
Mcap
| 4629 Crore
Debt (FY15)
| 2539 Crore
| 408 Crore
EV
| 6760 Crore
| 754 / 395
52 week H/L
Equity cap
| 69.9 crore
Face value
| 10
Price performance
1M
3M
6M
12M
Heildelberg Cem
0.5
4.2
-17.1
17.3
India Cement
-1.8
1.9
-13.9
-10.4
JK Cement
1.2
5.7
-2.1
75.0
JK Lakshmi Cem
-2.9
-6.3
-12.9
36.9
Research Analyst
Rashesh Shah
rashes.shah@icicisecurities.com
Devang Bhatt
devang.bhatt@icicisecurities.com
Variance analysis
Q1FY16 Q1FY16E
Q1FY15
810.7
17.3
143.9
59.8
11.3
932.2
18.8
141.9
57.4
0.0
801.4
15.7
114.9
48.3
15.9
1.2
10.6
25.3
23.8
NA
911.4
23.7
150.4
58.2
-12.6
-11.0
-26.8
-4.3
2.8
NA
178.6
219.6
194.2
-8.0
207.5
-13.9
Freight cost
Others
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
177.5
155.2
84.4
10.4
202.8
164.2
146.3
15.7
177.5
0.0
152.1
2.1
98.5
-14.3
12.3 -188 bps
66.3
36.6
-1.1
-1.3
69.0
42.4
53.7
9.5
40.3
28.5
45.3
7.3
64.2
28.4
-102.4
-117.4
68.6
37.6
76.6
6.7
-3.5
-2.7
-101.4
-118.9
0.2
44.2
38.0
-99.6
69.8
-99.8
Interest
Depreciation
PBT
Total Tax
PAT
Key Metrics
Volume (MT)
1.81
Realisation (|)
4,476
EBITDA per Tonne (|)
466
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Comments
195.2
-9.1
153.6
1.1
159.1
-47.0
17.5 -705 bps
1.98
1.73
4.6
1.91
-5.3
4,711
739
4,630
569
-3.3
-18.1
4,767
832
-6.1
-44.0
Cement volume growth of 4.6% YoY was backed by capacity expansion. However,
realisation declined 3.3% YoY led by pricing pressure in North and west
EBITDA margin declined due to a fall in realisation and higher employee cost
The increase in interest expenses was mainly led by higher debt for capacity
expansion
Volume growth was mainly led by YoY increase in grey cement volumes
The decline in realisation was due to increased competition in northern region
EBITDA/tonne declined 18.1% YoY led by decline in realisation
Change in estimates
(| Crore)
Old
FY16E
New
% Change
Old
FY17E
New
% Change
Revenue
EBITDA
4,199.6
589.1
3,994.2
555.1
-4.9
-5.8
4,839.4
749.0
4,692.4
717.7
-3.0
-4.2
14.0
13.9
-13 bps
15.5
15.3
-18 bps
174.7
25.0
164.0
23.4
-6.1
-6.1
294.4
42.1
283.1
40.5
-3.8
-3.8
Comments
We have revised our FY16E revenue estimates downwards due to
near term pressure on pricing. However, we expect pricing to
improve post Q3FY15 led by higher government spends on
infrastructure
We expect EBITDA margins to improve in FY17E led by lower
freight cost (due to split grinding unit) and cost rationalisation
High depreciation and interest cost to keep PAT under pressure
Assumptions
Volume (MT)
Realisation (|)
EBITDA per Tonne (|)
FY13
FY14
Current
FY15 FY16E
FY17E
Earlier
FY15 FY16E
FY17E
6.4
4,569
869
6.2
4,517
585
7.2
4,659
620
9.5
4,946
757
7.2
4,659
620
9.5
5,073
785
8.4
4,658
659
8.6
4,796
684
Comments
We expect volume growth to be mainly driven by capacity expansion in the
north
We expect realisation to improve post Q3FY15
We expect EBITDA/tonne to improve led by cost efficiency
Page 2
Company Analysis
Capacity expansion to drive growth
The company has expanded its cement capacity by 3.0 MTPA through two
split grinding units (1.5 MTPA each), one at Mangrol (Rajasthan) and another
at Jhajjar (Haryana). The total project cost is estimated at | 1730 crore, which
includes a 25 MW coal-based thermal power plant, a 9 MW waste heat
recovery-based power plant and also a railway siding at both units. Apart
from this, the company has installed a grey cum white cement plant with an
installed capacity of 0.6 MTPA (white cement) and 1.02 MTPA (grey cement)
in Fujairah (UAE), which would start providing once the demand starts
improving. With these expansions coupled with demand improvement, we
expect revenue CAGR of over 18.6% during FY15-17E.
Demand environment in south to improve; Maharashtra a concern
Total 30% of the companys current capacity is in Karnataka (i.e. 3.0 MT), in
the southern region. The companys major markets in South are
Maharashtra (with more than 50% share), while balance quantum is sold in
Karnataka and Kerala. During the quarter, the southern region witnessed a
decline in realisation on QoQ basis led by pricing pressure in Maharashtra.
However, going forward, we expect demand in Karnataka and Kerala to gain
traction post monsoon leading to better realisations in H2FY16E.
White cement Strong hold in domestic market
JK Cement has 0.6 MTPA of white cement capacity. With only two major
players manufacturing white cement, the other being UltraTech Cement,
coupled with relatively stable white cement demand, white cement
commands around three times the realisation fetched by grey cement..
Realisation (|)
15000
10000
11592
11196
10874
10725
10332 27.9 10545
26.5
26.2
25.9
25.5
25.2
18.6
5000
3669
15.9
3851
3584
7.5
3812
8.3
3894
10.3
3733
10.1
0
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Exhibit 1: White cement & grey cement comparative analysis of realisation, margin trends
FY17E
Page 3
3000
2000
1000
2538
2904
2784
719
858
3924
3337
1169
4692
1503
1827
2081
370
438
1992
2185
1926
2396
3190
1642
2755
1457
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
546
941
Sales (| crore)
State
Region
MT
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Karnataka
North
North
North
South
3.3
0.8
0.5
3.0
7.5
Rajasthan
North
0.6
0.6
Rajasthan
Haryana
North
North
1.5
1.5
10.5
Country
UAE
0.68
0.8
7.2
1.04
1.30
4000
0.88
6.0
4.6
4.0
0.31
2.0
4.3
5.1
5.4
5.7
5.4
6.3
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
5000
3963
3815
4074
4659
4658
FY16E
0.35
6.2
4517
FY15
0.33
6.4
4569
FY14
5.5
5.8
6000
7.4
2000
1000
0.0
FY16E FY17E
0.2
1.0
1.3
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.91 1.81
1.73 1.73 1.77 1.75
0.23 0.21
0.2 0.19 0.23 0.23
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
1.5
4485 4589
4260 4405
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q1FY14
2500
2000
0.0
Q4FY13
0.5
0.2
|/tonne
Million Tonne
1.5
1.45
1.71
FY17E
2.0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
4946
3000
8.2
FY12
Million Tonne
8.0
9.5
FY13
8.4
FY11
10.0
FY10
Blended Realisation-LHS
Page 4
953
877
869
585
484
659
620
757
(%)
800
600
400
200
0
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
24.0
19.0
FY11
13.3
13.0
12.7
FY10
20.0
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
15.3
14.1
FY16E FY17E
Blended EBITDA/Tonne
(%)
2410
3103
2819
2651
2601
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
20
Q4FY13
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
-5
30
25
1500
0
2955
|/tonne
(%)
218
10
3000
2745
4500
15
35
2433
6000
20
2804
25
3085
519
228
179
315
625
`
Q1FY15
-67
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
-100
Q4FY13
100
Q4FY14
113
300
Q3FY14
500
343
| crore
400
300
20
12.4
6.0
7.0
200
100
225.7
3.1
64.1
0
FY10
FY11
177.3
8.0
233.6
3.3
156.9
91.0
FY12
Net profit - LS
FY13
FY14
10
4.2
4.7
15
283.1
164.0
5
0
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Page 5
(%)
|/tonne
700
468
900
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
5.8
6.4
6.2
7.2
8.4
9.5
Net Realisation
4390
4569
4517
4659
4658
4946
Total Expenditure
3514
3701
3927
4039
3985
4190
877
869
590
620
672
757
FY17E
EV
12.4x
10.4x
8.5x
6.5x
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Jul-07
(| Crore)
2.5x
1000
750
500
250
EV
$120
$100
$80
$60
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
$20
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Sales Growth
(Rs cr)
(%)
2783.6
-4.1
3337.3
19.9
3924.1
17.6
4692.4
19.6
EPS
(Rs)
13.0
22.4
23.4
40.5
Growth
(%)
-61.0
72.3
4.5
72.6
PE
(x)
50.9
29.5
28.2
16.4
EV/EBITDA
(x)
18.2
15.2
11.8
9.4
EV/Tonne
($)
135.1
96.3
93.4
99.5
RoNW
(%)
5.2
9.5
9.1
13.5
Page 6
RoCE
(%)
5.5
7.3
9.7
12.5
Company snapshot
800
Target Price: 710
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Key events
Date
Feb-09
Event
Government announces excise duty cut of 2% to boost cement sales
Oct-09
The company inaugurated first plant in south, coming out of its existing northern and western markets
Oct-10
Impacted by all-time high coal and petcoke prices, company reports lowest ever EBITDA margin of 1.3%
Mar-12
The company expands its white putty production capacity from 1 lakh tonne to 3 lakh tonne. White cement constitutes ~20% of total revenue for the company with
high EBITDA margin of more than 25% compared to grey cement EBITDA margin of 15% to 20%
The government proposes to raise excise duty on the building material from 10% to 12% against expectations of a cut in the same
Mar-12
Jun-12
Oct-13
Mar-14
The CCI imposes a fine of 50% of annual profit for the fiscal year ending 2010 and 2011, a total of | 6000 crore on 11 cement companies including JK Cement (|
128.5 crore) for alleged cartelisation
Revenue contribution from white cement reached 33% in Q2FY14. During the quarter, grey cement reported negative EBITDA while white cement reported ~22%
EBITDA margin, thus proving to be a face saviour for the company
The company is expanding its total grey cement capacity from current 7.5 MTPA to 10.5 MTPA and further capacity of 0.6 MTPA of white cement in UAE. The
production from expanded capacity is expected to start from Q2FY15
Jun-14
Jk Cement commenced grey cement production at Jharli, Haryana having grey cement grinding capacity of 1.5 MT
Sep-14
Top 10 Shareholders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Name
Yadu International, Ltd.
Singhania (Yadupati)
Juggilal Kamlapat Holding, Ltd.
Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Fidelity Management & Research Company
HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Limited
Templeton Asset Management Ltd.
Singhania (Kavita Y)
Singhania (Sushila Devi)
General Insurance Corporation of India
Shareholding Pattern
Latest Filing Date
30-Jun-15
30-Jun-15
30-Jun-15
30-Jun-15
30-Jun-15
30-Jun-15
30-Jun-15
30-Jun-15
30-Jun-15
30-Jun-15
(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others
Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
Fidelity Management & Research Company
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd.
HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Limited
Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd.
Value
4.14m
0.46m
0.22m
0.21m
0.11m
Shares
0.39m
0.05m
0.02m
0.02m
0.01m
Sells
Investor name
Singhania (Gaur Hari)
IDFC Asset Management Company Private Limited
HSBC Global Asset Management (India) Private Limited
L&T Investment Management Limited
BNP Paribas Asset Management India Pvt. Ltd.
Value
-11.06m
-1.79m
-0.59m
-0.39m
-0.26m
Shares
-1.03m
-0.18m
-0.06m
-0.06m
-0.03m
Page 7
Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
| Crore
(Year-end March)
Total operating Income
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
2,783.6
3,337.3
3,924.1
4,692.4
-4.1
19.9
17.6
19.6
Growth (%)
| Crore
(Year-end March)
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
91.0
156.9
164.0
283.1
Add: Depreciation
140.0
136.6
154.4
187.2
-112.7
-55.5
97.8
-543.1
66.9
89.4
36.3
77.4
185.2
327.4
452.4
4.6
424.6
556.3
698.4
787.2
Employee Expenses
167.8
202.5
259.5
302.6
673.9
793.5
836.8
1041.7
Freight cost
633.4
734.4
838.9
970.5
(Inc)/dec in Investments
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1,082.8
-251.2
-250.0
-200.0
-110.8
-3.6
0.0
0.0
-1,193.6
-254.8
-251.0
-201.0
Other Expenses
Total Operating Exp.
EBITDA
523.3
606.7
735.4
872.8
2,423.0
2,893.3
3,369.0
3,974.7
360.6
444.0
555.1
717.7
Others
Growth (%)
-34.7
23.1
25.0
29.3
Depreciation
140.0
136.6
154.4
187.2
Interest
152.6
219.5
259.2
224.6
62.2
71.2
70.1
66.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
130.3
159.1
211.6
372.5
Other Income
Exceptional items
PBT
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1,053.4
256.6
-200.0
-200.0
-21.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Others
-9.0
-268.8
0.0
0.0
1,023.4
-12.2
-200.0
-200.0
Total Tax
39.2
2.2
47.7
89.4
15.0
60.3
1.4
-396.4
PAT
91.0
156.9
164.0
283.1
Opening Cash
332.5
347.6
407.9
409.3
Growth (%)
-61.0
72.3
4.5
72.6
Closing Cash
347.6
407.9
409.3
12.9
13.0
22.4
23.4
40.5
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
69.9
69.9
69.9
69.9
Adjusted EPS
13.0
22.4
23.4
40.5
1,688.5
1,576.6
1,740.6
2,023.7
Cash EPS
33.0
42.0
45.5
67.3
251.5
235.5
258.9
299.4
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
49.7
58.3
58.5
1.9
13.0
13.3
14.1
15.3
3.3
4.7
4.2
6.0
Balance sheet
| Crore
(Year-end March)
Key ratios
Equity Capital
Total Shareholders funds
1,758.5
1,646.5
1,810.5
2,093.6
BV
Total Debt
2,282.3
2,538.9
2,338.9
2,138.9
DPS
268.5
279.8
279.8
279.8
FY14
Liabilities
Reserve and Surplus
(Year-end March)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,309.3
4,465.3
4,429.3
4,512.3
Assets
3,153.4
4,314.5
4,505.7
4,855.7
Inventory days
65.8
57.5
43.0
44.0
841.9
978.5
1,132.9
1,320.1
Debtor days
14.6
15.2
12.0
12.0
Net Block
2,311.5
3,336.0
3,372.8
3,535.6
Creditor days
97.7
89.5
75.0
68.0
Capital WIP
1,102.0
191.2
250.0
100.0
3,413.5
3,527.2
3,622.8
3,635.6
RoE
5.2
9.5
9.1
13.5
1.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
RoCE
5.5
7.3
9.7
12.5
Investments
299.5
314.5
315.5
316.5
RoIC
7.7
8.0
10.6
12.1
Inventory
542.0
509.8
414.8
716.5
Debtors
111.7
139.4
129.0
154.3
P/E
50.9
29.5
28.2
16.4
387.5
447.5
455.1
671.1
EV / EBITDA
18.2
15.2
11.8
9.4
Cash
347.6
407.9
409.3
12.9
EV / Net Sales
2.4
2.0
1.7
1.4
1,388.7
1,504.6
1,408.2
1,554.9
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.0
745.1
818.5
806.3
874.2
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.2
Gross Block
Less: Acc Depreciation
Intangible Asset
48.4
64.5
112.9
122.4
Solvency Ratios
793.5
882.9
919.2
996.6
Debt/EBITDA
6.3
5.7
4.2
3.0
595.2
621.6
489.0
558.3
Debt / Equity
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.0
4,309.3
4,465.3
4,429.3
4,512.4
Current Ratio
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.6
Quick Ratio
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.5
Provisions
Application of Funds
Page 8
CMP
(|)
TP(|)
1388
1560
229
248
3157
3650
11459 11,200
71
80
91
92
662
710
350
402
264
277
156
266
Rating
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
M Cap
(| Cr)
26,297
35,644
87,122
39,936
1,632
2,857
4,629
4,120
716
3,510
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
19.8
14.3
11.2
16.2
17.0
13.8
23.2
16.9
13.0
30.1
23.4
19.8
9.4
11.7
9.2
8.2
6.8
5.7
15.2
11.8
9.4
16.0
13.2
9.6
13.4
8.3
6.1
9.5
7.2
5.2
EV/Tonne ($)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
135
115
112
164
160
150
240
203
195
325
268
244
84
84
82
60
59
58
96
93
96
141
100
89
53
52
52
194
189
132
FY15
8.3
14.0
11.0
6.1
7.2
6.7
7.3
7.8
5.7
12.8
RoCE (%)
FY16E
9.7
11.2
14.0
9.3
5.3
8.8
9.7
8.7
9.5
20.5
FY17E
11.8
12.0
17.2
10.7
7.5
10.6
12.5
11.6
13.2
27.3
FY15
14.1
14.8
10.7
8.8
6.8
0.8
9.5
7.2
4.6
13.3
RoE (%)
FY16E
10.0
11.4
12.7
11.6
3.6
3.0
9.1
13.8
7.3
16.8
^JY14,JY15E,JY16E,JY17E
Page 9
FY17E
12.4
12.0
15.1
12.7
6.9
5.4
13.5
14.4
11.1
23.0
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 10
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Rashesh Shah, CA, and Devang Bhatt, PGDBM, Research Analysts authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately
reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this
report.
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