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Disease Impacts

Table of Contents
***DISEASE***

DISEASE GENERAL

DISEASE GENERAL

DISEASE BAD TERRORISM/ OUTWEIGHS NUCLEAR WAR

FLU IMPACT

10

FLU IMPACT

12

VIRUS IMPACT

14

SARS IMPACT

15

SWINE FLU IMPACT

16

BIRD FLU IMPACT 17

CHRONIC DISEASE BAD KILLS 2MILLION
AIDS BAD EXTINCTION

19

20

TB IMPACT 21
TB IMPACT 22
SWINE FLU IMPACT

24

SWINE FLU OUTWEIGHS NUCLEAR WAR 26

MALARIA BAD ECONOMY/ GLOBAL STABILITY 27
FOOD BORNE ILLNESS BAD EXTINCTION
BIRD FLU

31

281NC BIRD FLU 30

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***Disease***

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Disease General
Epidemics will cause human extinction
Discover 2k (Twenty Ways the World Could End by Corey Powell in Discover
Magazine, October 2000, http://discovermagazine.com/2000/oct/featworld)
If Earth doesn't do us in, our fellow organisms might be up to the task. Germs and people have
always coexisted, but occasionally the balance gets out of whack. The Black Plague killed one
European in four during the 14th century; influenza took at least 20 million lives between
1918 and 1919; the AIDS epidemic has produced a similar death toll and is still going
strong. From 1980 to 1992, reports the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
mortality from infectious disease in the United States rose 58 percent. Old diseases such as
cholera and measles have developed new resistance to antibiotics. Intensive agriculture and land
development is bringing humans closer to animal pathogens. International travel means diseases
can spread faster than ever. Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert who recently left
the Minnesota Department of Health, described the situation as "like trying to swim against the
current of a raging river." The grimmest possibility would be the emergence of a strain that spreads
so fast we are caught off guard or that resists all chemical means of control, perhaps as a result of
our stirring of the ecological pot. About 12,000 years ago, a sudden wave of mammal
extinctions swept through the Americas. Ross MacPhee of the American Museum of
Natural History argues the culprit was extremely virulent disease, which humans helped
transport as they migrated into the New World.
Disease leads to extinction
Toolis, the director of a major television series on the history of
plagues, 09
(Kevin, The Express, April 28, 2009 U.K. 1st Edition Pandemic Pandemonium lexis)
It destroyed the Roman Empire, wiped out most of the New World and killed millions in
Europe. How disease - not just Mexico's swine fever - has shaped the planet
SCIENTISTS call it the Big Die Off, when a terrifying new virus rips through a species
and kills up to a third of the entire population. And we all now could be facing a new
apocalypse, though no one yet knows how potent the new strain of Mexican swine fever
will be, or how many millions could die. Yet if history teaches us anything it tells us that
the greatest danger the human race faces is not some crackpot North Korean dictator but
a six-gene virus that could wipe out one third of the global population. Our real enemy, a
new plague virus, is so small you can barely see it even with an advanced electron
microscope. It has no morality, no thought or no plan. All it wants to do is reproduce
itself inside another human body. We are just another biological opportunity, a nice warm
place to feed and replicate. Viruses are as old as life itself. What is startling though is how
vulnerable our globalised societies are to the threat of a new deadly plague. Before World
Health Organisation scientists could identify this new H1N1 virus it had travelled
halfway across the world via international flights.

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Disease General
A pandemic is imminent it will end civilization evidence to the contrary is simply
ingrained in our subconscious and should be rejected, it doesnt assume economic
and societal collapse that would result from a large scale pandemic
New Scientist, major journal and winner of the Royal Statistical
Society 2008 Award for Statistical Excellence in Journalism,
2008.
(April 5, 2008, "Will a pandemic bring down civilisation?")
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/being-human/mg19826501.400-will-a-pandemicbring-down-civilisation.html
Will a pandemic bring down civilisation? FOR years we have been warned that a pandemic is coming. It could be flu, it could be something else. We know that lots of people will
die. As terrible as this will be, on an ever more crowded planet, you can't help wondering whether the survivors might be better off in some ways. Wouldn't it be easier to rebuild
modern society into something more sustainable if, perish the thought, there were fewer of us. Yet would life ever return to something resembling normal after a devastating

Virologists sometimes talk about their nightmare scenarios - a plague like ebola or
smallpox - as "civilisation ending". Surely they are exaggerating. Aren't they? Many
people dismiss any talk of collapse as akin to the street-corner prophet warning that the
end is nigh. In the past couple of centuries, humanity has innovated its way past so many
predicted plagues, famines and wars - from Malthus to Dr Strangelove - that anyone who
takes such ideas seriously tends to be labeled a doom-monger. There is a widespread
belief that our society has achieved a scale, complexity and level of innovation that make
it immune from collapse. "It's an argument so ingrained both in our subconscious and in
public discourse that it has assumed the status of objective reality," writes biologist and geographer Jared
Diamond of the University of California, Los Angeles, author of the 2005 book Collapse. "We think we are different." Ever more vulnerable A growing
number of researchers, however, are coming to the conclusion that far from becoming
ever more resilient, our society is becoming ever more vulnerable (see page 30). In a severe pandemic, the disease might
only be the start of our problems. No scientific study has looked at whether a pandemic with a high mortality could cause social
collapse - at least none that has been made public. The vast majority of plans for
weathering a pandemic all fail even to acknowledge that crucial systems might collapse,
let alone take it into account. There have been many pandemics before, of course. In
1348, the Black Death killed about a third of Europe's population. Its impact was huge,
but European civilisation did not collapse. After the Roman empire was hit by a plague
with a similar death rate around AD 170, however, the empire tipped into a downward
spiral towards collapse. Why the difference? In a word: complexity. In the 14th century,
Europe was a feudal hierarchy in which more than 80 per cent of the population were
peasant farmers. Each death removed a food producer, but also a consumer, so there was
little net effect. "In a hierarchy, no one is so vital that they can't be easily replaced," says Yaneer Bar-Yam, head of the New England Complex Systems Institute in
Cambridge, Massachusetts. "Monarchs died, but life went on." Individuals matter The Roman empire was also a hierarchy, but with a difference: it had
a huge urban population - not equalled in Europe until modern times - which depended
on peasants for grain, taxes and soldiers. "Population decline affected agriculture, which
affected the empire's ability to pay for the military, which made the empire less able to
keep invaders out," says anthropologist and historian Joseph Tainter at Utah State University in Logan. "Invaders in turn further weakened peasants and
agriculture." A high-mortality pandemic could trigger a similar result now, Tainter says. "Fewer consumers
mean the economy would contract, meaning fewer jobs, meaning even fewer consumers.
Loss of personnel in key industries would hurt too." Bar-Yam thinks the loss of key people would be crucial. "Losing pieces
pandemic?

indiscriminately from a highly complex system is very dangerous," he says. "One of the most profound results of complex systems research is that when systems are highly
complex, individuals matter." One of the most profound results is that when systems are highly complex, individuals matter The same conclusion has emerged from a
completely different source: tabletop "simulations" in which political and economic leaders work through what would happen as a hypothetical flu pandemic plays out. "One of the
big 'Aha!' moments is always when company leaders realise how much they need key people," says Paula Scalingi, who runs pandemic simulations for the Pacific Northwest

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truck
drivers. When a strike blocked petrol deliveries from the UK's oil refineries for 10 days in
2000, nearly a third of motorists ran out of fuel, some train and bus services were
cancelled, shops began to run out of food, hospitals were reduced to running minimal
services, hazardous waste piled up, and bodies went unburied. Afterwards, a study by Alan McKinnon of Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh,
UK, predicted huge economic losses and a rapid deterioration in living conditions if all road
haulage in the UK shut down for just a week. What would happen in a pandemic when
many truckers are sick, dead or too scared to work? Even if a pandemic is relatively mild,
many might have to stay home to care for sick family or look after children whose
schools are closed. Even a small impact on road haulage would quickly have severe
knock-on effects. One reason is just-in-time delivery. Over the past few decades, people who use or sell commodities from coal to aspirin have stopped keeping
economic region of the US. "People are the critical infrastructure." Vital hubs Especially vital are "hubs" - the people whose actions link all the rest. Take

large stocks, because to do so is expensive. They rely instead on frequent small deliveries. Cities typically have only three days' worth of food, and the old saying about
civilisations being just three or four meals away from anarchy is taken seriously by security agencies such as MI5 in the UK. In the US, plans for dealing with a pandemic call for
people to keep three weeks' worth of food and water stockpiled. Some planners think everyone should have at least 10 weeks' worth. How long would your stocks last if shops
emptied and your water supply
dried up? Even if everyone were willing, US officials warn that many people might not be able to afford to stockpile enough food. Two-day supply Hospitals rely on daily
deliveries of drugs, blood and gases. "Hospital pandemic plans fixate on having enough ventilators," says public health specialist Michael Osterholm at the University of
Minnesota in Minneapolis, who has been calling for broader preparation for a pandemic. "But they'll run out of oxygen to put through them first. No hospital has more than a twoday supply." Equally critical is chlorine for water purification plants. Hospital pandemic plans fixate on having enough ventilators. But they'll run out of oxygen first It's not
only absentee truck drivers that could cripple the transport system; new drivers can be drafted in and trained fairly quickly, after all. Trucks need fuel, too. What if staff at the
refineries that produce it don't show up for work? "We think that if we can make people feel safe about coming to work, we'll have about 25 per cent staff absences if we get a flu
pandemic like the one in 1918," says Jon Lay, head of global emergency preparedness for ExxonMobil. If that happens, then by postponing non-essential tasks, and making sure
crucial suppliers also hang tough, "we can maintain the supply of products that are critical to society". Some models, however, suggest absenteeism sparked by a 1918-type
pandemic could cut the workforce by half at the peak of a pandemic wave. "If we have 50 per cent absences, it's a different story," says Lay, who says his company has not

All the companies that provide

the critical infrastructure of modern society - energy, transport, food, water, telecoms face similar problems if key workers fail to turn up. According to US industry sources, one electricity supplier in Texas is
modelled the impact of absence on that scale. And what if a pandemic is worse than 1918? Critical infrastructure

teaching its employees "virus avoidance techniques" in the hope that they will then "experience a lower rate of flu onset and mortality" than the general population. The fact is that
the best way for people to avoid the virus will be to stay home. But if everyone does this - or if too many people try to stockpile supplies after a crisis begins - the impact of even a

societies are becoming ever

more tightly connected, which means any disturbance can cascade rapidly through many
sectors. For instance, many businesses - including New Scientist's parent company - have contingency plans that count on some people working online from home. Models
relatively minor pandemic could quickly multiply. Planners for pandemics tend to overlook the fact that modern

show there won't be enough bandwidth to meet demand, says Scalingi. And what if the power goes off? This is where the complex interdependencies could prove disastrous.
Refineries make diesel fuel not only for trucks but also for the trains that deliver coal to electricity generators, which now usually have only 20 days' reserve supply, Osterholm
notes. Coal-fired plants supply 30 per cent of the UK's electricity, 50 per cent of the US's and 85 per cent of Australia's. Powerless The coal mines need electricity to keep
working. Pumping oil through pipelines and water through mains also requires electricity. Making electricity depends largely on coal; getting coal depends on electricity; they all
need refineries and key people; the people need transport, food and clean water. If one part of the system starts to fail, the

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whole lot could go. Hydro and nuclear power are less vulnerable to disruptions in supply, but they still depend on highly trained staff. With no electricity, shops will be unable to
keep food refrigerated even if they get deliveries. Their tills won't work either. Many consumers won't be able to cook what food they do have. With no chlorine, water-borne
diseases could strike just as it becomes hard to boil water. Communications could start to break down as radio and TV broadcasters, phone systems and the internet fall victim to
power cuts and absent staff. This could cripple the global financial system, right down to local cash machines, and will greatly complicate attempts to maintain order and get
systems up and running again. Even if we manage to struggle through the first few weeks of a pandemic, long-term problems could build up without essential maintenance and
supplies. Many of these problems could take years to work their way through the system. For instance, with no fuel and markets in disarray, how do farmers get the next harvest in
and distributed? Closing borders As a plague takes hold, some countries may be tempted to close their borders. But quarantine is not an option any more. "These days, no country
is self-sufficient for everything," says Lay. "The worst mistake governments could make is to isolate themselves." The port of Singapore, a crucial shipping hub, plans to close in a
pandemic only as a last resort, he says. Yet action like this might not be enough to prevent international trade being paralysed as other ports close for fear of contagion or for lack
of workers, as ships' crews sicken and exporters' assembly lines grind to a halt without their own staff, power, transport or fuel and supplies. Quarantine is not an option any
more. These days, no country is self-sufficient Osterholm warns that most medical equipment and 85 per cent of US pharmaceuticals are made abroad, and this is just the start.
Consider food packaging. Milk might be delivered to dairies if the cows get milked and there is fuel for the trucks and power for refrigeration, but it will be of little use if milk
carton factories have ground to a halt or the cartons are an ocean away. "No one in pandemic planning thinks enough about supply chains," says Osterholm. "They are long and
thin, and they can break." When Toronto was hit by SARS in 2003, the major surgical mask manufacturers sent everything they had, he says. "If it had gone on much longer they
would have run out." The trend is for supply chains to get ever longer, to take advantage of economies of scale and the availability of cheap labour. Big factories produce goods

Lay points to recent

hurricanes in the US and the 2005 fire at the Buncefield oil depot in the UK as examples of severe disruptions to the
normal supply chain. In all of these instances, he points out, supplies from refineries were
maintained. But those disasters were localised, and help could come from unaffected
places nearby. Disaster planners usually focus on single-point events of this kind:
industrial accidents, hurricanes or even a nuclear attack. But a pandemic happens
everywhere at the same time, rendering many such plans useless. "There are numerous assumptions behind our conclusions," Lay admits. "If they
more cheaply than small ones, and they can do so even more cheaply in countries where labour is cheap. Flawed assumptions

prove to be flawed, we could struggle." Planners focus on single-point events like the Buncefield fire, but a pandemic happens everywhere The main assumption is how

"No government pandemic

plans consider the possibility that the death rate might be higher than in 1918," says Tim
Sly of Ryerson University in Toronto, Canada. Even a rerun of 1918 could be bad
enough. In a 2006 study, economist Warwick McKibbin of the Lowry Institute for International Policy in Sydney, Australia, and colleagues based their "worst-case"
scenario on the same death rate as in 1918. The result, their model predicts, would be 142 million deaths worldwide,
leading to a massive global economic slowdown that would wipe out 12.6 per cent of
global GDP. Death rate This scenario assumes around 3 three per cent of those who fall
ill die. Of all the people known to have caught H5N1 bird flu so far, 63 per cent have
died. "It seems negligent to assume that H5N1, if it goes pandemic, will necessarily
become less deadly," says Sly. And flu is far from the only viral threat we face.
serious a pandemic could be. Many national plans are based on mortality rates from the mild 1957 and 1968 pandemics.

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Disease Bad Terrorism/ Outweighs Nuclear War

Disease outweighs terrorism and WMDs
Zakaria Editor of Newsweek International05 (Fareed Zakaria, , October 2005, A
threat worse than terror
www.fareedzakaria.com/ARTICLES/newsweek/103105.html)
A flu pandemic is the most dangerous threat the United States faces today," says Richard
Falkenrath, who until recently served in the Bush administration as deputy Homeland Security adviser. "It's
a bigger threat than terrorism. In fact it's bigger than anything I dealt with when I was in government." One makes a
threat assessment on the basis of two factors: the probability of the event, and the loss of life if it happened. On both counts, a
pandemic ranks higher than a major terror attack, even one involving weapons of mass
destruction. A crude nuclear device would probably kill hundreds of thousands. A flu
pandemic could easily kill millions.
Pandemics kill 100 million
Falkenrath 06 Richard A., Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at The Brookings
Institution, Committee on Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, CQ
Congressional Testimony, March 16, 2006
A catastrophic disease event is admittedly an extreme scenario, residing at the very
highest end of the threat spectrum. With respect to manmade threats - bioterrorism - I
am not suggesting that such a scenario can be easily effectuated or is imminent.
Nonetheless, I do not believe that the trends are in our favor. With every passing year,
the latent technological potential of states and non-state actors to use disease
effectively as a weapon rises inexorably. With respect to naturally occurring disease
threats, no one can estimate precisely the likelihood, timing, or consequence of the
appearance of a new human pathogen.5 However, for at least one potentially
catastrophic disease, even the conservative World Health Organization concludes that
"the world may be on the brink of another pandemic."6 According to the WHO, a
pandemic along the lines of the relatively mild pandemic of 1957 would result in 2
million to 7.4 million deaths worldwide. A pandemic with the death rate of the 1918
Spanish flu - perhaps the most extreme human disease event in history - could result in
several million fatalities in the United States and perhaps over one hundred million
abroad. In sum, when viewed in comparison to all other conceivable threats to U.S.
national security, the catastrophic disease threat is and for the foreseeable future will
remain the gravest danger we face. No state, no terrorist group, no ideology or system of
government, no other tactic or target or category of weapons, no technological accident, and no other natural phenomenon, presents
as terrifying a combination of likelihood, poor defenses and countermeasures, and consequence.
Disease outweighs nuclear war
Dalton 01 (Alastair, journalist, Deadly Virus Will Destroy Life on Earth, THE
SCOTSMAN, October 17, 2001, LN.)
HUMANS will have to move to other planets to survive a biological catastrophe that will
hit the Earth within the next 1,000 years, Professor Stephen Hawking warned yesterday.

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The world's most famous physicist said he was more worried about a virus than nuclear
weapons destroying life and said future generations would have to face living in space.
Prof Hawking said he was optimistic life would continue, but warned the danger of
extinction remained because of man's aggressive nature. Other leading scientists agreed
that humans would have to take action to avoid being wiped out like previous dominant
Earth species, such as the dinosaurs, but said there was no need for any immediate panic.

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Flu Impact
Influenza and viruses lead to extinction
Yu, Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science, 09
(Victoria, May 22, DUJS aims to increase scientific awareness within the Dartmouth
community by providing an interdisciplinary forum, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty
of Our Fate, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-ofour-fate)
A pandemic will kill off all humans. In the past, humans have indeed fallen victim to
viruses. Perhaps the best-known case was the bubonic plague that killed up to one third of
the European population in the mid-14th century (7). While vaccines have been
developed for the plague and some other infectious diseases, new viral strains are
constantly emerging a process that maintains the possibility of a pandemic-facilitated
human extinction. Some surveyed students mentioned AIDS as a potential pandemiccausing virus. It is true that scientists have been unable thus far to find a sustainable cure
for AIDS, mainly due to HIVs rapid and constant evolution. Specifically, two factors
account for the viruss abnormally high mutation rate: 1. HIVs use of reverse
transcriptase, which does not have a proof-reading mechanism, and 2. the lack of an
error-correction mechanism in HIV DNA polymerase (8). Luckily, though, there are
certain characteristics of HIV that make it a poor candidate for a large-scale global
infection: HIV can lie dormant in the human body for years without manifesting itself,
and AIDS itself does not kill directly, but rather through the weakening of the immune
system. However, for more easily transmitted viruses such as influenza, the evolution of
new strains could prove far more consequential. The simultaneous occurrence of
antigenic drift (point mutations that lead to new strains) and antigenic shift (the interspecies transfer of disease) in the influenza virus could produce a new version of
influenza for which scientists may not immediately find a cure. Since influenza can
spread quickly, this lag time could potentially lead to a global influenza pandemic,
according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (9). The most recent scare of
this variety came in 1918 when bird flu managed to kill over 50 million people around
the world in what is sometimes referred to as the Spanish flu pandemic. Perhaps even
more frightening is the fact that only 25 mutations were required to convert the original
viral strain which could only infect birds into a human-viable strain (10).
Even a mild pandemic collapses the global economy and kills millions
Osterholm, Director of the center for infectious Disease
Research and Policy, 2005
Michael, Preparing for the next Pandemic, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 84, Iss. 4, July/August
Summary: If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the global
economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies and health-care systems would
be overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized world
must create a detailed response strategy involving the public and private sectors. FEAR
ITSELF Dating back to antiquity, influenza pandemics have posed the greatest threat of a

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worldwide calamity caused by infectious disease. Over the past 300 years, ten influenza
pandemics have occurred among humans. The most recent came in 1957-58 and 1968-69,
and although several tens of thousands of Americans died in each one, these were
considered mild compared to others. The 1918-19 pandemic was not. According to recent
analysis, it killed 50 to 100 million people globally. Today, with a population of 6.5
billion, more than three times that of 1918, even a "mild" pandemic could kill many
millions of people. A number of recent events and factors have significantly heightened
concern that a specific near-term pandemic may be imminent. It could be caused by
H5N1, the avian influenza strain currently circulating in Asia. At this juncture scientists
cannot be certain. Nor can they know exactly when a pandemic will hit, or whether it will
rival the experience of 1918-19 or be more muted like 1957-58 and 1968-69. The reality
of a coming pandemic, however, cannot be avoided. Only its impact can be lessened.
Some important preparatory efforts are under way, but much more needs to be done by
institutions at many levels of society.

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Flu Impact
Pandemic influenza would destroy the global economy SARS proves
Osterholm, Director of the center for infectious Disease
Research and Policy, 2005
Michael, Preparing for the next Pandemic, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 84, Iss. 4, July/August
The arrival of a pandemic influenza would trigger a reaction that would change the world
overnight. A vaccine would not be available for a number of months after the pandemic
started, and there are very limited stockpiles of antiviral drugs. Plus, only a few
privileged areas of the world have access to vaccine-production facilities. Foreign trade
and travel would be reduced or even ended in an attempt to stop the virus from entering
new countries - - even though such efforts would probably fail given the infectiousness of
influenza and the volume of illegal crossings that occur at most borders. It is likely that
transportation would also be significantly curtailed domestically, as smaller communities
sought to keep the disease contained. The world relies on the speedy distribution of
products such as food and replacement parts for equipment. Global, regional, and
national economies would come to an abrupt halt -- something that has never happened
due to HIV, malaria, or TB despite their dramatic impact on the developing world. The
closest the world has come to this scenario in modern times was the SARS (severe acute
respiratory syndrome) crisis of 2003. Over a period of five months, about 8,000 people
were infected by a novel human coronavirus. About ten percent of them died. The virus
apparently spread to humans when infected animals were sold and slaughtered in
unsanitary and crowded markets in China's Guangdong Province. Although the
transmission rate of SARS paled in comparison to that of influenza, it demonstrated how
quickly such an infectious agent can circle the globe, given the ease and frequency of
international travel. Once SARS emerged in rural China, it spread to five countries within
24 hours and to 30 countries on six continents within several months. The SARS
experience teaches a critical lesson about the potential global response to a pandemic
influenza. Even with the relatively low number of deaths it caused compared to other
infectious diseases, SARS had a powerful negative psychological impact on the
populations of many countries. In a recent analysis of the epidemic, the National
Academy of Science's Institute of Medicine concluded: "The relatively high case-fatality
rate, the identification of super-spreaders, the newness of the disease, the speed of its
global spread, and public uncertainty about the ability to control its spread may have
contributed to the public's alarm. This alarm, in turn, may have led to the behavior that
exacerbated the economic blows to the travel and tourism industries of the countries with
the highest number of cases." SARS provided a taste of the impact a killer influenza
pandemic would have on the global economy. Jong-Wha Lee, of Korea University, and
Warwick McKibbin, of the Australian National University, estimated the economic
impact of the six-month SARS epidemic on the Asia-Pacific region at about $40 billion.
In Canada, 438 people were infected and 43 died after an infected person traveled from
Hong Kong to Toronto, and the Canadian Tourism Commission estimated that the
epidemic cost the nation's economy $419 million. The Ontario health minister estimated
that SARS cost the province's health-care system about $763 million, money that was

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Disease Impacts

spent, in part, on special SARS clinics and supplies to protect health-care workers. The
SARS outbreak also had a substantial impact on the global airline industry. After the
disease hit in 2003, flights in the Asia-Pacific area decreased by 45 percent from the year
before. During the outbreak, the number of flights between Hong Kong and the United
States fell 69 percent. And this impact would pale in comparison to that of a 12- to 36month worldwide influenza pandemic.

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Virus Impact
We are on the brink of extinction due to the next lethal virus
Jupiter Scientific, org. devoted to the promotion of science and
scientific education, 2003
(http://www.jupiterscientific.org/sciinfo/sars.html)
Typically each year, between 600 million and 1 billion people around the world catch the
flu, and 20,000 people die from influenza. In 1918, the Spanish Flu killed an estimated 20
million people worldwide. In the fourteenth century, 25 million Europeans, or one-fourth
of the population, died from the bubonic plague, and in India and China, the disease
claimed 12 million and 15 million victims respectively. On one hand, these pandemics
were more contagious than SARS and modern medical methods were not available; on
the other hand, airline travel makes it is easier for SARS to spread globally. This is why
the World Heath Organization has proposed restrictions on certain travel. Initially, the
symptoms of SARS are flu-like: a fever greater than 38.0C (100.4F), a headache and an
overall feeling of discomfort that may include muscle aches and a soar throat. Within a
week, SARS patients usually develop a dry cough, diarrhea and have difficulty breathing
due to pneumonia. In 10 to 20 percent of the cases, respiratory problems become so acute
that patients must be put on a mechanical ventilator. Somewhat less than half of such
patients die. Several laboratory tests exist to detect the SARS virus. While SARS is not
the deadly disease leading to death on a massive scale envisioned in the Jupiter Scientific
report The Hong Kong Chicken Virus, it has a few of the required features. It is very
fortunate that medical organizations have mobilized in they way that they have. When the
next lethal viral scare comes, we may not be so lucky. The end of humanity could be just
a cough away.

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SARS Impact
SARS could soon spread worldwide and cause extinction
Chase, New Age Christian, 2009
(T., January 5 Revelation 13: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) - A New
Age / Bible Prophecy Discussion http://www.revelation13.net/SARS.html)
In mid-March 2003, it was announced to the world that there was a new Pneumonia-like
disease causing a spreading epidemic in the world. A new disease epidemic of Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), started in Guangdong Province in China in
November 2002, and then spread to other countries in Asia: Hong Kong, Vietnam,
Indonesia, Phillipines, Thailand. It had also spread to Canada and the U.S.. Many initial
cases had been linked to a Hotel in Hong Kong. It is a Pneumonia-like illness with an
incubation period of 2 to 7 days. Although SARS has not been seen for years, there is a
great danger of it in the future returning and spreading worldwide. Apparently it is related
Astrologically to Saturn being at its brightest at the start of 2003 (Saturn is equivalent to
Satan, and Satan on earth would also be the dragon, Red China). SARS initially spread
rapidly around the world, and showed signs of mutating for the worse, becoming more
deadly, so there was talk of SARS being a doomsday bug, that will mean the end of the
world or at least the end of civilization. SARS seems to be stopped now, but it could
come back. This bug initially sounded like the movie "The Omega Man" where an
apocalyptic doomsday virus exterminates most of humanity, turning the survivors into
religious cult fanatics. Another doomsday virus movie is "Twelve Monkeys".

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Swine Flu Impact

Unchecked swine flu leads to extinction
Brown, Washington Post Staff Writer, 09
(David, May 17, 200,9 Suburban Edition, A-Section; Pg. A03, Age of Flu Victims Has
Big Implications; Scientists Say Relative Youth of Ill People Is Evidence of Pandemic
Potential lexis)
Exactly how swine flu fits into the pantheon of flu pandemics will not be known for a
while. It will take months -- and many more victims -- for its full personality and
behavior to emerge. But one thing is clear: This is a lot more than just seasonal flu out of
season. After a brief moment when news of the outbreak in Mexico made swine flu look
like a horseman of the apocalypse, public health officials have spent much effort
reassuring people that most of the time, the virus causes a mild illness that can be ridden
out at home. Yet, officials at the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention and elsewhere do not want the public to get blase. Pandemic flu
strains -- and this new H1N1 strain is all but certain to cause the 21st century's first
pandemic -- are unpredictable. Any contagious disease that most of the world's 6.8 billion
people can catch is inherently dangerous.

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Bird Flu Impact

Bird flu would kill millions and result in a post apocalyptic world
Turchin, Studying @ Moscow State University, 08 (Alexei, Structure
of the Global Catastrophe, http://www.scribd.com/doc/6250354/STRUCTURE-OFTHE-GLOBAL-CATASTROPHE-Risks-of-human-extinction-in-the-XXI-century-)
Bird flu. As it was already repeatedly spoken, not the bird

flu is dangerous, but possible mutation of strain

H5N1, capable to be transferred from human to human. For this purpose, in particular, should change
attaching fibers on a surface of the virus that would attached not in the deep in lungs, but above where there are more chances
for virus to get out as cough droplets. Probably, that it is rather simple mutation. Though
there are different opinions on, whether H5N1 is capable to mutate this way, but in
history already there are precedents of deadly flu epidemics. The worst estimation of number of
possible victims of muteted bird flu was 400 million humans. And though it does not mean full extinction of mankind , it almost
for certain will send the world on a certain postapocalyptic stage.
Bird flu results in every impact imaginable including global state collapse and
disintegration of public order
The Guardian 2006 (Bird flu 'could be 21st-century Black Death' Jan. 27.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2006/jan/27/birdflu.health)

Avian flu has the potential to develop into a global pandemic that would be as devastating
as the Black Death of the 14th century, the World Economic Forum warned yesterday in its assessment of the risks
threatening stability and prosperity. In a worst-case outcome, experts charged with
weighing up systemic dangers said there might be riots to gain access to supplies of
vaccines, a collapse of public order, a partial flight from the cities and large-scale
migration. The report published at the WEF's annual meeting in Davos said there was only a small risk of a return to the economic and social chaos caused by the Black
Death, and it would only occur if bird flu conflated with other risks to the global community. "An outbreak of H5NI [avian flu] human to
human transmission could have devastating impacts globally across all social and
economic sectors, disrupting efficient processes, severely degrading response capabilities
and exacerbating the effects of known weaknesses in different systems," said the report.
The assessment, undertaken by risk experts at the insurance companies Swiss Re and
Marsh and McLennan (MMC), and Merrill Lynch, identified terrorism, an oil-price spike, natural
disasters and a bird-flu pandemic as the big threats in 2006. It added that the speed at which
global risks travelled thanks to globalisation could lead to "rapid and unexpected
contagion of global risks across industries and geographical areas. The interplay of
multiple global risks and their combined ripple effects can create potentially disastrous
"perfect storms" - cumulative events which cause damage far in excess of the sum of each
individual risk event." Avian flu has spread from China as far west as eastern Europe and the number of deaths caused has been relatively
small. The WEF report said nevertheless that there was a remote chance that bird flu could have far more dramatic effects . "These impacts
might include the disruption of supply chains and trade flows; an exacerbation of
financial imbalances and the transformation of intellectual property regimes for
pharmaceutical products; rioting to gain access to scarce supplies of antivirals and
vaccines; a collapse of public order; partial de-urbanisation as people flee population
centres; the extinction of trust in governments; decimation of specific human skill sets;
and forced, large-scale migration, associated with the further collapse of already weak
states."
Avian flu kills a billion people with 60% mortality

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Disease Impacts

Chandra Deputy National sEcurity Advisor of India 2004 (Satish, , Global Security:
A Broader Concept for the 21st Century, May 7-10, http://www.csdr.org/2004book/chandra.htm)
It is 2015. Despite much debate and warning, the world has done little to address the buildup of greenhouse
gases and the consequent acceleration of global warming, which is accompanied by increasingly
unpredictable world weather patterns. Extreme heat, storms, and droughts have created havoc for farmers. Mega-droughts are affecting major granaries.
The worlds agricultural production and freshwater resources are seriously stretched, reducing the planets carrying capacity. Deaths from famine and drought are in the hundreds
of thousands. Violent and frequent storms are lashing Western Europe, leading to the abandonment of low-lying cities such as The Hague. Rising sea levels have made countries

This scenario, as frightening as it is, pales in comparison

with what could overtake us by 2007 if the highly pathogenic form of bird flu H5N1 becomes
transmittable human to human; all it would take for this to happen is a simple gene shift in the bird flu
virus, which could happen any day. In a globalized world linked by rapid air travel, the disease would spread like a
raging forest fire. If it did, it would overwhelm our public health system, cripple our economies, and wipe out a
billion people within the space of a few monthsa 60 percent mortality rate is estimated. Both of these
scenarios may seem alarmist, but they are within the realm of possibility. We are, however, in a position to
put in place structures and programs to mitigate and possibly even prevent such disasters. But a no-regrets
such as Bangladesh nearly uninhabitable, resulting in mass migration.

strategy demands that this be done before it is too late.

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Disease Impacts

Chronic Disease Bad Kills 2Million

Chronic diseases cost over a trillion and kill almost 2 million a year.
Reed Staff Writer 9 [BY JENNIFER BOOTH REED, Programs aim to prevent
chronic diseases, May 18, http://www.newspress.com/article/20090518/HEALTH/905180345/1013/LIFESTYLES]

Policymakers are eyeing chronic disease management and preventive medicine

as significant keys to reining in health care costs and reforming the health system.
The seven most common chronic diseases cost the U.S. economy more than
$1 trillion in treatment and lost productivity. Almost half of Americans
suffer from one or more chronic conditions, and chronic diseases kill 1.7 million
people in the United States every year. Many of the illnesses are preventable.

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Disease Impacts

AIDS Bad Extinction

AIDS will spread globally and cause extinction
Muchiri, 2k (Michael, Staff Member at Ministry of Education in Nairobi, Will
Annan finally put out Africas fires? Jakarta Post, March 6, lexis)
The executive director of UNAIDS, Peter Piot, estimated that Africa would annually need between $ 1 billion to $ 3 billion to combat the disease, but
currently receives only $ 160 million a year in official assistance. World Bank President James Wolfensohn lamented that Africa was losing teachers

Statistics show that

AIDS is the leading killer in sub-Saharan Africa, surpassing people killed in warfare. In 1998, 200,000
people died from armed conflicts compared to 2.2 million from AIDS. Some 33.6 million people have HIV
around the world, 70 percent of them in Africa, thereby robbing countries of their most productive
members and decimating entire villages. About 13 million of the 16 million people who have died of AIDS
are in Africa, according to the UN. What barometer is used to proclaim a holocaust if this number is not a
sure measure? There is no doubt that AIDS is the most serious threat to humankind, more serious than
hurricanes, earthquakes, economic crises, capital crashes or floods. It has no cure yet. We are watching a
whole continent degenerate into ghostly skeletons that finally succumb to a most excruciating,
dehumanizing death. Gore said that his new initiative, if approved by the U.S. Congress, would bring U.S. contributions to fighting AIDS and
faster than they could be replaced, and that AIDS was now more effective than war in destabilizing African countries.

other infectious diseases to $ 325 million. Does this mean that the UN Security Council and the U.S. in particular have at last decided to remember
Africa? Suddenly, AIDS was seen as threat to world peace, and Gore would ask the congress to set up millions of dollars on this case. The hope is that
Gore does not intend to make political capital out of this by painting the usually disagreeable Republican-controlled Congress as the bad guy and hope the
buck stops on the whole of current and future U.S. governments' conscience. Maybe there is nothing left to salvage in Africa after all and this talk is about
the African-American vote in November's U.S. presidential vote. Although the UN and the Security Council cannot solve all African problems, the AIDS
challenge is a fundamental one in that it threatens to wipe out man.

The challenge is not one of a single continent alone because

Africa cannot be quarantined. The trouble is that AIDS has no cure -- and thus even the West has stakes in
the AIDS challenge. Once sub-Saharan Africa is wiped out, it shall not be long before another continent is
on the brink of extinction. Sure as death, Africa's time has run out, signaling the beginning of the end of
the black race and maybe the human race.

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TB Impact
TB causes extinction
Bio-Medicine, 2007 one of the Internets leading online Organizations devoted to
biology and medicine, http://www.bio-medicine.org/medicine-news/The-DreadedDisease-Tuberculosis-Raises-Its-Ugly-Head-20674-1/The Dreaded Disease Tuberculosis
Raises Its Ugly Head

When Mr. Andrew Speaker and his wife returned to United States from Europe they were immediately quarantined by the health
officials . Speaker and his family have been fighting back ever since, disputing the accounts of government health officials who contended he had been warned not to fly
because he posed an infection risk to others. The disease in Speaker came to fore when he went for a check up for a rib injury. His X-ray picked up shadow in his right
lung and TB was suspected. Only after intense test it was realized that the TB was drug resistance. But Speaker was not aware of it till late. Until a few weeks ago, many
Americans had never heard of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, or XDR-TB. But Speaker got plenty of press as he was ordered into federal quarantine, having
crisscrossed the Atlantic on commercial flights while infected with extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB). In the 1970s, eradicating TB appeared possible.

the drug-resistant strains are winning. Of the 9 million new TB cases each year, an estimated
450,000 are multi-drug resistant, or MDR. Only two-thirds of MDR TB patients are cured. The
World Health Organization estimates that in 2005, there were 27,000 cases in 37 countries of XDR
TB, which is resistant to at least three of the six second-line drugs used when the first drugs fail. The
Now,

cure rate for XDR TB patients is just one-third. Scariest of all, two women in Italy recently died from a fully resistant type of TB that's officially incurable. (Scientists are

terrorizes those whose immunity has been weakened by HIV, hunger, alcoholism
or other diseases. If the new strains become dominant, everyone is at risk. The rising worldwide number of XDR-TB
dubbing it XXDR TB.) Today, TB

cases like Speaker's may herald the end of a glorious 60-year holiday from many common and highly contagious diseases -- such as polio, measles and cholera -- that
once routinely ravaged vast swaths of humanity. Ironically, there has long been a disturbing tendency to romanticize the white plague, as tuberculosis is also known.

, tuberculosis is a messy, agonizing and debilitating ordeal. Once the tubercle bacilli gain the
momentum to proceed unchecked through the body, there is no romance to be found. The actual experience of
tuberculosis is one of exhaustion, drenching bouts of sweating, groaning, a cough punctuated by uncontrollable spurts of blood. XDR TB is already too
widespread to quarantine. We need to combat it globally before it becomes pandemic. Last week, the WHO asked
But in real life

governments worldwide to pay up the $3 billion a year needed to fund existing TB programs and an additional $1 billion a year to combat XDR TB. In the U.S., Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and others
proposed spending $300 million on TB next year, much of it on research. Given that isolating and treating a single XDR patient can cost up to $250,000, the case for spending far more on prevention and
control is self-evident. Today, more than one-third of the world's more than 6 billion people have been exposed to the tuberculosis germ. Five to 10 percent of them, or at least 100 million, will develop
symptomatic TB. Each will infect 10 to 20 people before they are either successfully treated or they die. Last year, active -- and contagious -- tuberculosis was diagnosed in more than 8.8 million people.

Approximately 420,000, or 5 percent, of them have a drug-resistant strain that requires several more
medications than drug-sensitive cases do; about 30,000 of these 420,000 cases are even more difficult
and expensive to treat, the highly lethal XDR-TB.

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TB Impact
The impact is staggering TB kills tens of millions three times as many as AIDS
Tarwater, J.D. Candidate @ Georgetown 1 University Law Center
(Jeremy R., Georgetown Immigration Law Journal, The Tuberculosis & HIV Debate in
Immigration Law: Critical Flaws in United States Academic Anti-Exclusion Arguments,
Winter 2001, 15 Geo. Immigr. L.J. 357, )
V. TUBERCULOSIS The interconnectedness of HIV/AIDS with sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and TB "grows increasingly apparent as biomedical and behavioral
scientists learn more about people's susceptibility and risk." n53 Amongst the relatively recent emergence of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the seriousness of TB has seemingly fallen
upon deaf ears in academic circles. Though many articles speak vehemently for and against the HIV-positive exclusion of immigrants from the United States, few discuss the

Tuberculosis, even without an

HIV/AIDS dual infection, is worthy of global emergency status. The first epidemics began in 1780 during
implications of the significant effects TB and HIV interconnectedness have on the U.S. and World populations.

the industrial revolutions of England and peaked in the early 1800s. n54 The epidemic began to decline in North America from a peak in 1900 of 194 cases per 100,000 persons to
less than ten cases per 100,000 in 1982 - the decline was mostly due to improved socioeconomic conditions and the discovery of treatment drugs to fight the disease. n55 Oddly, in
1985 the incidence of TB began to increase up until 1992, when it again began to decline till hitting an [*366] all-time low of 8.7 cases per 100,000 in 1995. n56 The causes for
the excess cases in North America seen in the period between 1985 and 1993 were due to many factors including immigration, ineffective and underfunded public health services,
and the HIV epidemic. n57 Today the U.S. rate hovers somewhere below ten cases per 100,000, but it is as high as 300 per 100,000 in some areas and twenty-four per 100,000 in

Today, two billion people, or one-third the world's population, are

infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the cause of TB. n59 Of these, at least
twenty million are estimated to be active cases. n60 Within what is classified as avoidable
adult deaths, TB accounts for approximately twenty-six percent or 2.7 million. n61
Thirty-one million people in total will die of TB in the 1990's (compared to ten
million who will die of AIDS). n62 Significant is that transmission of TB is airborne and
thus coughing, sneezing, and even singing can transmit the bacteria. TB is extremely
infectious, fifty percent of people exposed to the TB bacteria are usually infected
with latent TB, and ten to fifteen percent of those individuals will go on to develop
the active TB disease. n63 The disease is usually pulmonary (in the lungs) but can occur
in any organ. Even more frightening is the emergence of a Multi-Drug Resistant
tuberculosis (MDR-TB), a mutant form of the more common Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain. n64 MDR-TB is a man-made phenomenon caused by the
some large cities such as Boston. n58

inconsistent or unsuccessful treatment of the common TB disease. An incomplete course of medication may leave behind a new TB bacteria which is made resistant to the drugs
previously utilized. This new mutant strain of bacteria, MDR-TB, will multiply and can be spread by the infectious patient to other victims by air. MDR-TB is resistant to at least
two antibiotics, but strains have been observed which are resistant to as many as nine drugs. n65 MDR-TB outbreaks have been seen in regions all over the world from Russia
[*367] to South Africa, and from London to New York City. n66 A study by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1997 found MDR-TB in every one of the thirty-five

MDR-TB is a
highly dangerous disease, especially because it is airborne, and it is on the rise even
in the United States. In the thirty-nine states of the U.S. where reporting was collected, at least one MDR-TB case was found. n68 In twenty-seven percent of
countries it studied, and researchers estimate that MDR cases account for upwards of fourteen percent of the world's current TB case total. n67

the hospitals which had a case of MDR-TB, there were not proper facilities available to treat the mutant strain. n69 Even more problematic, New York City has reported a "w"

n70 Drug treatment for

this mutant strain of TB is difficult and very expensive; costs are estimated at $ 250,000, a figure almost one
strain of the MDR-TB observed in over one hundred cases which is resistant to every major TB treatment drug available .

hundred times more than the price of treating a usual case of TB in the United States. n71 In developing nations, nearly all patients with recorded MDR-TB die because the cost is

developed nations fare little better where fifty percent of patients with the
resistant TB die due to the difficulty of treatment. n72
so prohibitive and

TB is already the second biggest killer in the world. Left unchecked it would go
global.
Middle East Online News 3/24/02 l/n
Washington - March 24 has been designated by the World Health Organization as World Tuberculosis Day. This very date, 120 years ago, Dr. Robert Koch - a German medical
researcher - announced to the European medical community that he had discovered the bacterium that causes tuberculosis. His discovery was considered a medical breakthrough

tuberculosis continues to kill millions of people every year. In

the late 19th century, tuberculosis a bacterial disease spread through the air - killed one out of every seven
people in the United States and in Europe. Today, this infectious disease remains the second leading killer
in the world after AIDS, with more than two million TB-related deaths each year. Tuberculosis strikes
somewhere in the world every second. According to Michael Iademarco of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the disease primarily plagues
that promised to put an end to the disease. But today, over a century later ,

developing countries. "Countries such as India, and China, Vietnam, the Philippines. There is a list of 23 high burdened countries in the world. It's from this set of 23 countries that
80 percent of the world's TB burden comes from," he says. Dr. Iadenmarco says that poverty and poor health conditions contribute significantly to the spread of tuberculosis in

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Disease Impacts

those countries. "Many of these 23 high burdened countries, for example, are lower or low income countries. So, they don't have adequate health infrastructure and so, therefore, it
is very difficult to coordinate, organize and provide the drugs for adequate TB control. A more social reason is that TB historically is a very stigmatizing disease. People don't want

Today, tuberculosis appears to

be a disease of the developing world. But, if it is not checked, it could spread anywhere, including the
United States.
other people to know that they have tuberculosis. This prevents people from going and seeking appropriate treatments," he says.

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Disease Impacts

Swine Flu Impact

The next wave of the swine flu will explode around the world, turning into the
biggest pandemic
Barry, visiting scholar at the Tulane/Xavier Center for Bioenvironmental Research 9
, is the author of The Great Influenza (John M. Barry Where Will the Swine Flu Go
Next? April 27, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/opinion/28barry.html)
As the swine flu threatens to become the next pandemic, the biggest questions are
whether its transmission from human to human will be sustained and, if so, how
virulent it might become. But even if this virus were to peter out soon, there is a strong
possibility it would only go underground, quietly continuing to infect some people
while becoming better adapted to humans, and then explode around the world. What
happens next is chiefly up to the virus. But it is up to us to create a vaccine as quickly as
possible. Influenza viruses are unpredictable because they are able to mutate so
rapidly. That capacity enables them to jump easily from species to species, infecting
not only pigs and people but also horses, seals, cats, dogs, tigers and so on. An avian
virus responsible for the 1918 pandemic jumped first from birds to humans, then
from humans to swine (as well as other animals). Now, and not for the first time, pigs
have given a virus back to humans. Mutability makes even existing, well-known flu
viruses unpredictable. A new virus, formed by a combination of several existing ones
as this virus is, is even less predictable. After jumping to a new host, influenza can
become more or less virulent in fact, different offshoots could go in opposite
directions before a relatively stable new virus emerges. Influenza pandemics have
occurred as far back in history as we can look, but the four we know about in detail
happened in 1889, 1918, 1957 and 1968. The mildest of these, the so-called Hong Kong
flu in 1968, killed about 35,000 people in the United States and 700,000 worldwide.
Ordinary seasonal influenza, in comparison, now kills 36,000 Americans a year, because
the population has a higher proportion of elderly people and others with weak immune
systems. (If a virus like the Hong Kong flu hit today, it would probably kill more people
for the same reason.) The worst influenza pandemic, in 1918, killed 675,000 in the
United States. And although no one has a reliable worldwide death toll, the lowest
reasonable number is about 35 million, and some scientists believe it killed as many as
100 million at a time when the worlds population was only a quarter of what it is
today. The dead included not only the elderly and infants but also robust young adults.
Whats important to keep in mind in assessing the threat of the current outbreak is
that all four of the well-known pandemics seem to have come in waves. The 1918
virus surfaced by March and set in motion a spring and summer wave that hit some
communities and skipped others. This first wave was extremely mild, more so even
than ordinary influenza: of the 10,313 sailors in the British Grand Fleet who became ill,
for example, only four died. But autumn brought a second, more lethal wave, which was
followed by a less severe third wave in early 1919. The first wave in 1918 was relatively
mild, many experts speculate, because the virus had not fully adapted to humans. And
as it did adapt, it also became more lethal. However, there is very good evidence that
people who were exposed during the first wave developed immunity much as people
get protection from a modern vaccine. A similar kind of immune-building process is the

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Disease Impacts

most likely explanation for why, in 1918, only 2 percent of those who contracted the flu
died. Having been exposed to other influenza viruses, most people had built up some
protection. People in isolated regions, including American Indian reservations and
Alaskan Inuit villages, had much higher case mortality presumably because they had
less exposure to influenza viruses. The 1889 pandemic also had a well-defined first wave
that was milder than succeeding waves. The 1957 and 1968 pandemics had waves, too,
though they were less well defined. In all four instances, the gap between the time the
virus was first recognized and a second, more dangerous wave swelled was about six
months. It will take a minimum of four months to produce vaccine in any volume,
possibly longer, and much longer than that to produce enough vaccine to protect most
Americans. The race has begun.

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Disease Impacts

Swine Flu Outweighs Nuclear War

Were on the brink of a global swine flu pandemic which would outweigh nuclear
war
UPI, 9 (Martin Sieff, 4 May 2009, Swine flu-HIV could devastate human race,
http://www.upi.com/news/issueoftheday/2009/05/04/Swine-flu-HIV-could-devastatehuman-race/UPI-43071241461493/)
The global swine flu threat is receding, but it could return in a far more deadly form
in the fall. The warning was given Monday by Dr. Margaret Chan, head of the 193nation World Health Organization, in an interview with the Financial Times of London.
Chan warned that the swine flu virus known as H1N1 that caused the Mexico Citycentered outbreak could return in the fall as a far more dangerous mutation. After last week's
warnings, school closings across the United States and the near shuttering of Mexico City, the current outbreak seems to have peaked. The WHO said Monday there were 985
confirmed cases of H1N1 spread over 20 countries. There have been 25 confirmed deaths. As of Monday there were 286 reported cases of swine flu in 36 U.S. states. Both U.S.
and Mexican authorities expressed confidence that the spread of the disease was slowing down. The World Health Organization said the higher number of reports of cases from

strands of the swine flu virus come from pigs,

humans and birds. Experts believe that the virus mutated into its current form in the
bodies of pigs. Health authorities are particularly worried that the capability to mutate
already exhibited by the virus could eventually let it combine with the human
immunodeficiency virus, which causes AIDS. That could cause a lethally dangerous
global health problem on a comparable scale to the 1918 Spanish influenza epidemic
that eventually infected more than 500 million people -- more than one-quarter of the
human race -- and killed 10 percent of them. That death toll of 50 million was more
than five times the total fatalities of World War I. The epidemic killed more Americans than died in World War I
Mexico -- 590 -- comes from testing of previously gathered samples. The four

and World II combined. Canadian health officials said Sunday they have confirmed that the H1N1 swine flu virus had, in at least one case, leaped back
into a herd of 200 pigs. That raised the possibility it could mutate again in pigs and move back into the human population. Chan told the Financial Times
that, given the potential scale of the possible threat, the World Health Organization did not overreact to the swine flu threat. While the number of new
cases hasn't grown as fast as expected, Chan said the disease could return in a few months in a much more lethal strain. She also said she would rather be
over-prepared than have to answer questions about why the World Health Organization didn't take sufficient action. The reaction of the U.S. government
headed by President Barack Obama and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano was measured, restrained and less tough than that of the 27-nation
European Union or of nations like China in closing cross-border traffic or imposing comprehensive screening. The Chinese government was horrified at

t swine flu could spread among its 1.3 billion people, almost 20 percent of
the human race. Its emergency measures, however, have infuriated the Mexican
government and led to a major diplomatic row between the two nations. Mexican travelers were quarantined in
the possibility tha

hotels, and the Mexican ambassador to China was not allowed to meet with one group he tried to visit. The anger of the Mexican government at the
Chinese measures, however, has obscured the real possibility that the global impact of swine flu has been limited precisely because of the swift measures
that were taken globally to contain it. The global swine flu crisis recalls the so-called millennium bug, which was supposed to crash computers around the
world as the machines' internal clocks turned over Jan. 1, 2000. That didn't happen, but some experts said that was because the precautions taken helped
prevent the problem. Some said there wasn't a problem to begin with. The whole controversy revolved around a negative proposition that couldn't be

history is filled
with little-known but horrifying examples of global pandemics from diseases like
Spanish flu, cholera, syphilis or bubonic plague that swept the world, killing
hundreds of millions of people, destroying civilizations and reshaping the
demographic patterns of the planet. In a modern world of unprecedented population
scale and social mobility, Chan's caution therefore appears completely justified. The
alternative is to risk a biological disaster that could eventually prove more
devastating than a thermonuclear war.
proved. Skeptics are already arguing that the global fever over swine flu should fall into the same category. However, human

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Disease Impacts

Malaria Bad Economy/ Global Stability

Malaria destroys the economy and causes global instability
Brundtland, , M.D, Director General at the WHO 2k (Dr. Gro Harlem, Master of
Public Health at Harvard University, Statement at the Summit on Roll Back
Malaria in Africa, April 25, http://www.who.int/directorgeneral/speeches/2000/english/20000425_nigeria.html)
Professor Jeffrey Sachs has just presented to us his report on the economic effects of malaria. As I
listened to him, I was struck by the enormity of the damage caused by this ancient disease. A loss
of economic growth of more than one percentage point per year. A 20% reduction in GNP after 15
years. Short term benefits from malaria control of up to $12 billion each year. These are staggering
numbers. I conclude that Malaria is taking a big bite out of Africas economic growth. For every
year that malaria is left unchecked, it will cause African nations to fall further behind the rest of
the world. But malaria is not just an African issue. Malaria and its economic impact threaten our
stability as a global community and threaten the future of our increasingly global economy. I do not
accept a future with ever widening differences in the growth of nations. Together we must fight for a
future free from the burdens of malaria If we can control malaria, we will see an acceleration of
Africa's development If malarious areas are free of the disease, family incomes will rise If there is less malaria in homes, school attendance will increase sometimes dramatically. At yesterday's technical meeting, Africa's scientists told us of the tools needed to roll back this cause of suffering and poverty, to banish this obstacle
to economic growth. Insecticide treated nets in the home reduce transmission and prevent infection. Indoor spraying with safe insecticides prevents infection. Treatment
during pregnancy protects the mother's health and improves birth weight. Rapid diagnosis and early treatment of someone with malaria shorten the illness and reduce death
rates. These interventions appear simple. Ensuring their success is not. To be effective they must reach all at risk. In many countries malaria has been a fact of life and death
for so long that individuals, families, communities and institutions tolerate its burden. Outspoken commitment, vision and energy are essential to overcome this sense of
fatalism and resignation surrounding malaria. Your excellencies: I am delighted that you have come here today to turn the tide. Over the last two years, your Governments
have joined forces with the WHO, UNICEF, UNDP, the World Bank, the African Development Bank, with development agencies, research groups, non-governmental
organisations and private corporations in starting to build a powerful movement. This is the movement to Roll Back Malaria. The spearhead for this movement is in Africa.
In more than 20 countries, malaria is now being tackled through all branches of government and with increasing involvement of the private sector. However, much more
remains to be done. Malaria needs a high profile throughout African society. Everyone needs to realise the full impact of this disease, to agree on the goals, and to know how
they can be realised in different settings. We - the partners supporting the Roll Back Malaria Movement - must continue to support applied research to identify and apply the
best anti-malaria therapies. This will help to counter the development of drug resistance. We need to find better ways to improve access to drugs, and to prevent
counterfeiting. We need to work together to review taxes and tariffs on mosquito nets and other commodities. We need to coordinate the many contributions financial and
technical of the Roll Back Malaria partners at country level. And, most importantly, we need to monitor achievements. We need to involve the parts of the private sector
that can help get goods and services to people. It has the distribution networks, the communications skill and the marketing resources. We would like private entities to be
true partners in the movement. Several are already involved in the Medicines for Malaria venture. In all this work, we count on you, the Heads of State and Governments, to
lead us, so that we work together effectively in Rolling Back Malaria. Mr President, The turn of the century coincides with a remarkable shift in thinking about human

Illness - particularly malaria keeps Africa's people and their nations poor. Bad health locks people into poverty. Healthy
populations have better school attendance, higher incomes and more rapid economic
development. I anticipate that today we will agree an approach on rolling back malaria that also
applies whether we are tackling tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, maternal ill-health, tobacco-related ill-health
or other priority problems. It means: Information campaigns, to increase knowledge and understanding
and empower people to act to improve their health Access to essential drugs, vaccines, and other
commodities; Effective health services - close to the home; and A healthy environment - with clean
water and sanitation It certainly includes actions within communities, responsive to the needs of poor
people, supported by all sectors of society. We partners are working together to mobilise large
increases in resources for health, to reduce the prices of drugs and commodities, to minimise tariffs
and taxes on these goods, to support the discovery and development of effective drugs and vaccines,
and to back-up effective action at country level.. These are all concrete and target-oriented actions.
They bring results.
development. I sense a growing realisation among decision-makers that to reduce poverty we must improve health.

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Disease Impacts

Food Borne Illness Bad Extinction

Food borne illnesses results in extinction. GDS
Acuna, Environmental Health Specialist, 3/11/08
(Willy, Environmental Health Specialist @ Plano (TX) Health Department, "ONE
OF AMERICA'S CHALLENGES IN A "FLAT WORLD","
http://foodsafetyandprotectionforum.blogspot.com/2008/03/one-of-americaschallenges-in-flat.html)
Thomas Friedman, in his book, The World Is Flat, articulated the unstoppable
connectivity of people in the world today. Technology has made the world "flat". Never
in the history of mankind can people communicate with immense speed and efficiency
around the clock. A traveler can be in one place one day and be in another place
thousands of miles away in eight hours. Information and communication technology has
never been so easily accessible to mankind in massive proportion. And so is America's
food supply. Gone are the days when America's food supply was exclusively sourced
from American soil. World economy has never been connected as it is today. One of the
greatest requirements of human survival is the basic need for food. As the world opens
up, America's vulnerability will continue to widen. And for this very reason that
America's food supply will forever be a point of vulnerability that must be addressed. As
the world continues to trade and slowly eliminates trade barriers, international food
supply will travel and such movement requires monitoring from its original source to its
final destinations-retail stores and dining establishments. Food safety issues such as
proper temperature control, storage, contamination, cross-contamination, handling and
transportation, to name a few, will have to be given serious attention if we are to address
foodborne illness-related outbreaks. Recent incident of salmonella outbreak traced from
imported cantaloupes from Honduras is only but a concrete example of the threat and
opportunity we all face in this world of free trade. As Food Safety Specialists, it is our
goal, first and foremost, to ensure safe food and effectively prevent food-related illness
cause by improper handling and contamination. The role we all play calls for a radical
passion, commitment and dedication in enhancing "worry-free" grocery shopping for all.
Food, the very basic of human needs is every body's business and Food Safety
Professionals are at the forefront, mandated to guard, protect and promote food safety for
all.

Large scale epidemics or mutations are unlikely and wont lead

to extinction
Chicago Times 3/26/06 (staff writer)
However, every new disease-of-the-year doesn't blow up to the catastrophic scale of HIV,
which was first recognized two decades ago and is now estimated to be killing almost
three million people a year. The impact of most new diseases is ghastly for victims but
very small for humanity as a whole. How do a few microbial species go on to cause

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Disease Impacts

widespread illness and death, while others don't? Like any organism entering a new
environment, the microbe population either must have within it some genetic variants that
are somewhat well-adapted to their new human host, or, once in the host, it has to throw
up new, better-adapted forms quickly through mutation or by scavenging genetic material
from other strains or species. That's probably why a large proportion of new human
diseases are RNA viruses, which mutate and scavenge more readily than DNA viruses,
bacteria or other pathogens. Chance mutations that improve an organism's ability to
thrive are extremely rare, even among viruses. This year, the world is watching and
waiting to find out if the H5N1 bird-flu strain is capable of producing mutants that can
spread directly from person to person. Two years ago, we were wondering if SARS
would beat the odds and go global. But it's not all up to the pathogen; as its hosts, we help
determine its success.

Disease-No Extinction
Global warming makes the impact inevitable
BBC 06/26/2002 [ New Study Says Climate Change Is Increasing Environmental
Disease
http://www.greatlakesdirectory.org/zarticles/0626_climate_change_great_lakes.htm]
Outbreaks of human malaria, butterflies beset with parasites, disease-stricken corals, and
trees overgrown with fungus. That is the gloomy picture of tomorrow's planet painted by
scientists in the United States. After sifting through hundreds of scientific papers, they
warn that infectious diseases will rise as the world gets warmer. One consequence is that
entire species of animals could be wiped out. Human tropical diseases may spread
outside their normal geographical range, affecting more and more people. Endangered
wild animals such as lions and eagles could also succumb to infections. Political plea
The warning comes in a review published in the journal Science. According to the team
of US experts, it is the first broad look at the effect of climate change on various
pathogens of crops, plants, wild animals and humans. Dr Richard Ostfeld of the New
York-based Institute of Ecosystem Studies told BBC News Online: "Disease now has to
be considered another main player on the climate warming stage. "We need to be taking
climate warming much more seriously than we currently are. "By 'we' I refer to
international agencies but also the US Government." Plant stress Driving the predicted
rise in infectious diseases are changes in temperature, rainfall, and humidity, which give
bugs a boost. The theory is that pathogens would be able to spread over a wider range,
and increase their survival rate. Climate differences might also "stress" plants and
animals, making them more susceptible to infection, say the scientists, led by Professor
Drew Harvell of Cornell University.

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1nc bird flu

The risk of mutation is extremely low
Easterbrook 06. [Gregg, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, May 8, 2006 Slate
http://www.slate.com/id/2141277/]
At the same time, a bird flu pandemic appears extraordinarily unlikely. First, a pandemic
would require the worrisome H5N1 strain to mutate significantly. Currently H5N1 is not
transmissible from person to person. A bird can transmit the disease to another bird, and a
person who is in close contact with an infected bird can catch it from the bird, but an
infected person cannot transmit the disease to another person. Since the overwhelming
majority of the global population never comes into close physical contact with birds, the
existing H5N1 strain poses almost no threatas evidenced by the low fatality numbers
thus far. If bird flu mutated in a way that allowed person-to-person transmission, this
would be very dangerous. But the odds of such a mutation appear low, as explained in
depth here. Animal influenzas have become person-to-person transmissible in the past.
Many commentators who have looked at the flu pandemic of 1918-19, which the WHO
says killed 20 million to 40 million people, projected the same death rate onto today's far
larger global population, and gasped. But there were three flu pandemics during the 20th
century, and each was less virulent than the last. The 1957 pandemic, caused by the
H2N2 virus, killed 1 million to 4 million worldwide, though the global population was
significantly higher in 1957 than in 1918-19. The 1968 Hong Kong flu, caused by the
H3N2 strain, also killed 1 million to 4 million, but again the global population had
increased. (Go here and click "influenza pandemics of the last century.") In other words,
the death ratio of flu pandemic declined throughout the centuryfewer killed compared
to larger numbers of people alive. Contemporary bird flu panic is most mistaken in
overlooking the improvements in global public health made since the pandemics of the
past. The 1918-19 pandemic came before antibiotics and sulfa drugs and occurred at a
time when public health was poor in many nations owing to five years of brutal war.
Post-antibiotics and with most of the world at peace, the 1957 and 1968 pandemics were
much less destructive. Today, a person-to-person H5N1 strain would be loosed on a globe
where public health has made further gains and which is mostly at peace. The point isn't
that antibiotics could be used against the flu, which is unaffected by the chemical
descendants of penicillin. It's that antibiotics, vaccines, and many other public health
improvements make today's global population more resistant to all diseases than
populations of the past. Whether a person exposed to a pathogen contracts the disease is
tremendously influenced by the state of the person's health. The body of a person in good
basic healththat is, not already sickened by something elsewill fight off most
pathogens. This is why hospital patients often contract pneumonia, strep, and staph while
doctors and nurses do not contract these diseases. Today the majority of the citizens of
the world are in good basic health. If a transmissible H5N1 mutation happens, it likely
won't jump wildly from person to person, leaving piles of the dead to be placed upon
pyres, because most people's bodies will defeat the pathogen. The global decline in
malnutrition will also help us. A malnourished person is far more susceptible to disease
than a well-nourished person. "Chronic hunger is on the decline," the latest report from
the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization states. (Go here and click "United

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Disease Impacts

Nations 2005 hunger report.") Today an estimated 17 percent of citizens of developing

nations are malnourished. That figure is an outrage. But it is also believed to be the
lowest such figure in human history. About a third of the developing world was
malnourished when the 1968 pandemic occurred. And perhaps as much as half the
developing world was malnourished in 1918-19. The lack of mention of improved global
public health in discussion of bird flu hazards is telling. One reason for it is that the
media and politicians often seem uninformed about public health trends. (Quickly, are
cancer rates rising or declining? OK, I gave it away.) Another reason is a lack of basic
understanding of evolutionary biology; runaway genetic effects are not observed in nature
because natural selection has spent eons conditioning living things to resist runaway
genetic effects. Then there is science fiction, from Kurt Vonnegut's "ice nine" to Michael
Crichton's Andromeda Strain, which has created the illusion that very tiny amounts of
something can instantly cause global catastrophe. (In Fatal Contact, one single exposed
person rapidly infects much of the population of United States.) Finally, preposterous
movies such as Outbreak and best sellers such as The Cobra Event, which depicted an
unstoppable super-ultra-plague and which Bill Clinton read while at the White House,
have left our collective heads spinning. Right now the ultimate book proposal might be
for a plagiarized "memoir" full of invented scenes about someone who contracts bird flu
while finding suppressed documents about Jesus. Hmmexcuse me, I gotta call my
agent!

1nc bird flu

Threat of bird flu low - USAID prevention and survailiance
proramm has been a huge sucesss globally
Frontline 6/2009 [Avian Flu Threat Was Reduced by $949M in Aid
http://www.usaid.gov/press/frontlines/fl_jun09/p1_birdflu060902.html]
Just three years after the H5N1 avian influenza virus spread rapidly across Asia, Africa,
Europe, and the Middle East, killing dozens of people and sparking fears of a global
pandemic, a vigorous global effort led by USAID has apparently helped reverse the
geographic spread of the disease. The virus now has an endemic presence in only five
countries: Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Leading all other
international efforts, the U.S. government committed $949 million to combat avian flu
globally, including $543 million from USAID. USAIDs system has proved
extraordinarily efficient weve had substantial progress in 53 countries, said Dennis
Carroll, special advisor to the Acting Administrator on pandemic influenza. Compared to
55 countries affected by H5N1 outbreaks between 2003 and 2006, only nine countries
have reported outbreaks in poultry or humans during 2009. Bangladesh had a dramatic
turnaround. Outbreaks in poultry dropped sharply from 221 in the flu season between
October 2007 and March 2008, to just 31 in the 2008-2009 flu season. Despite this
progress, the disease is still a threat: more than 60 percent of at least 420 humans who
caught the disease have died; and the H5N1 virus continues to mutate, raising the
possibility that it could someday trigger an influenza pandemic in humans. Since 2005,

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USAID has worked with the Departments of State, Agriculture, Health and Human
Services, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to support national
planning, surveillance, response, containment, risk awareness, and pandemic
preparedness. These efforts have increased country-level capacities to respond to and
limit disease spread. Three years ago, USAID began working with the United Nations
and other partners to strengthen surveillance systems in Vietnam, China, Indonesia, and
other countries so that outbreaks of the disease would be quickly reported to health and
agriculture officials. As a result, detection times fell from 12 days in 2006 to five days in
2009. Shorter detection times means that outbreaks can be contained before the disease
has a chance to spread further. USAID trained 82,000 people in rapid response to poultry
outbreaks and human cases; and provided 700,000 sets of protective clothing to 84
countries to protect response workers. The Agency also stockpiled supplies for
disinfection in these countries. Increased surveillance helped identify how avian flu has
spread. In Indonesia, Egypt, and Bangladesh, the disease was likely circulating on
commercial farms and spread through the movement of poultry to bird markets and to
holding centers where birds are processed for shipment to urban areas. USAID provided
training and supplies in these countries and in Vietnam to clean and disinfect holding
centers and markets to reduce the amount of H5N1 virus. To minimize the chances of
human infections with H5N1, USAID supported public awareness campaignsincluding
distribution of posters at public events and TV and radio spots to inform people of the
risk posed by the disease and the importance of preventing and containing it. In addition
to activities intended to prevent the emergence of a pandemic, USAID has also been
working through its Humanitarian Pandemic Preparedness Initiative with the United
Nations, international and national NGOs, and militaries to improve pandemic
preparedness in developing countries. About 96 percent of mortality due to an influenza
pandemic would be concentrated in developing countries, estimates say. Following its
success with H5N1 avian flu, USAID now intends to broaden its efforts to monitor and
respond to other zoonotic diseasesillnesses that are spread to humans from animals.
Initial focus areas will be the Congo Basin, Southeast Asia, and the Amazon, where there
is rich wildlife and increasing human contact and where many diseases have emerged in
the past. In fiscal year 2009, Congress appropriated new funding for USAID to build a
global early warning surveillance and response network for the next generation of
emerging pandemic threats.