CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

Intro
With far-reaching consequences like food scarcity, climate change is a major security
challenge untries like Pakistan and Bangladesh can take lessons from the Arab Spring
that was triggered by high food prices
Could Pakistan become destabilised because of climate change? Could the continuous
cycles of floods and droughts result in food scarcity, leading to riots and possibly a
revolution like the Arab Spring triggered by high food prices caused by drought?
Certainly in Tunisia and Syria, the consequences of climate change were stressors that
ignited a volatile mix of underlying causes that erupted into revolution and experts say
there are lessons for Pakistan to learn.
Climate change is indeed a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing pressures as well as
presenting new challenges to security in fragile societies, explains Pakistans retired Lt
Gen Tariq Waseem Ghazi from Pakistan, who now works for the Global Military Advisory
Council on Climate Change (GMACC).
The GMACC was set up in 2009 as a global network of serving and retired military
officers to highlight the potential security implications of a changing climate and to
advocate action, including by the military, to minimise the risks.
Today, we cant discuss climate change without the military discussing it. Climate
change is a growing worldwide threat to general peace and security, says Ghazi, who
was defence secretary to the government of Pakistan from 2005-2007.
Pakistan, which ranks tenth in 2014s global index of fragile states, could learn from
what happened during the Arab Spring. That spring, has now turned into an Arab
Winter with the destabilisation of states like Libya and Syria.
70% of nations in the world today, including Pakistan, state that climate change is now
a national security issue. Pakistans government even came up with a comprehensive
National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) but now Pakistan is bucking the trend, Ghazi
says.
The NCCP laid down all the benchmarks when it was launched in 2013 but there is still
no national action plan to implement the policy. Says retired ambassador and climate
change expert Shafqat Kakakhel: The NCCP must be taken up by various government
departments. Climate change must not be treated as a sectoral issue. It is a multi-

dimensional topic and an overarching institutional framework is needed for both

policymaking and implementation.

Policy Objectives
The main objectives of Pakistans Climate Change Policy include:
1. To pursue sustained economic growth by appropriately addressing the challenges of climate
change;
2. To integrate climate change policy with other inter-related national policies;
3. To focus on pro-poor gender sensitive adaptation while also promoting mitigation to the extent
possible in a cost-effective manner;
4. To ensure water security, food security and energy security of the country in the face of the
challenges posed by climate change;
5. To minimize the risks arising from the expected increase in frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and tropical storms;
6. To strengthen inter-ministerial decision making and coordination mechanisms on climate
change;
7. To facilitate effective use of the opportunities, particularly financial, available both nationally
and internationally;
8. To foster the development of appropriate economic incentives to encourage public and
private sector investment in adaptation measures;
9. To enhance the awareness, skill and institutional capacity of relevant stakeholders;
10. To promote conservation of natural resources and long term sustainability.

Struggling food production

The Pakistan government, headed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, is ignoring the
threat of climate change at its own peril. The country is just about self-sufficient in food
production (although there is distribution problems); but in the near future the rate of
increase in food production will not be able to keep pace with the surge in population.
Pakistan will need more water to grow more food and the country will need to increase
crop yields as well. According to Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, former Director General

of the Pakistan Meteorology Department and a top climate change expert in Pakistan,
both are difficult prospects given the negative impacts of climate change in the country
which are affecting both water availability and crop yields.
The last four years of monsoons and floods have also had a long-term impact on
farmers ability to produce food. Hence, Pakistan faces a great challenge in continuing
to feed itself. In a country ruled directly or indirectly by the army for much of the
seven odd decades since it was formed in 1947 this is a matter of huge concern for
not only the civilian government but the military as well.
Talk was given to serving Pakistani military officers at the National Defence University
(NDU), a clear sign that the Pakistan military is waking up to the threat of climate
change to national security.
The discussion at NDU Pakistans top war college, which trains almost the entire
leadership of the military in national security and strategic studies and also serves as a
national think tank noted that the primary purpose of military forces is to maintain
peace and national security.
In this context, peace means not just the absence of war but the maintenance of stable
conditions that provide at minimum for peoples basic needs, which will become all the
more difficult due to climate change impacts. The NDUs academic staff stated plans to
do more research on the military challenges posed by climate change.
According to Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, who is the lead author of Pakistans National
Climate Change Policy and panellist at NDU, It is good that Pakistans military is
becoming aware of climate change threats; they are among the main stakeholders in
the country when it comes to climate change challenges emerging in relation to national
security we are already seeing the signs around the world. There is no doubt in my
mind that climate change will become a major security challenge.
Last year, the US Department of Defence published a report stating climate change will
exacerbate global instability, posing an immediate threat to national security.
Unlike Pakistan, Bangladesh has mainstreamed climate change into national policy.
Bangladesh has standard operating procedures for disaster risk reduction right down to
the district level, with FM radios advising people about flooding. People know exactly
where to run to for safety when a disaster is imminent.

Border conflicts
Around 35-40 million climate refugees are projected as the sea level rises. As numbers
increase, there will be transboundary migration as well and the large scale migration will
cause a massive problem as India has unilaterally fenced the border.
India has recently completed a 2,000 km fence along the border with Bangladesh to
keep out immigrants. To police the border, Indias Border Security Force has carried out
a shoot-to-kill policy. It is estimated that Indian security forces have killed almost 1,000
Bangladeshis in 10 years.
In future climate refugees will probably be shot for trying to cross over into India as
Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries in the world, will not be able
to absorb so many refugees into its overcrowded towns and cities.

Action Strategy to Minimize Impending Changes

The global military complex is an energy-intensive industry and in many nations, defence forces
are the largest single consumer of fossil fuels. Given the significance of its impact on climate
conditions, the defence sector may come under significant pressure to reduce its GHG
emissions especially if governments enact policies to curb climate change in line with the
globally agreed 2C target. However, reducing fuel consumption may benefit operations,
particularly for deployed forces where moving large quantities of fuel is costly and dangerous.

More efficient vehicles

Internal combustion engines and jet turbines are becoming increasingly efficient. Expectations
are for 4070% improvements in the fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles by 2035 compared to
present. New aircraft typically offer a 2030% improvement in fuel efficiency over existing
models, driven by improved engine performance, weight reductions, and design. Further gains
of 40 50% between 2030 and 2050 are possible, compared with 2005 levels.

Alternative fuels
It may be possible to replace kerosene with biofuels, which offers direct GHG emission
reductions of +30%. Shifting to electric or hydrogen-fuelled vehicles promises to dramatically
reduce emissions

Operational improvements
Aviation carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions can be reduced through more efficient planning of
operations, including routes, altitudes and speeds.

Unintended consequences
Some efforts to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate change can increase insecurity and the
risk of armed conflict. Where these efforts change the distribution of or access to resources,
they have the potential to cause or aggravate conflict. For example, biofuel production can lead
to disputes over land, food price spikes and rioting. Offering payments for Reduced Emissions
from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) projects may trigger conflict over land and
property rights. And some forms of low-carbon power, such as hydropower, have led to conflict
over forced resettlement

Conclusion
Security can be measured at four different levels individual security, national security, regional
security and global security, according to relevance of the situation and the subject. Global
leaders are concerned about global security and in the same way regional leaders are
concerned about regional security. National leaders are concerned about national security.
Consequently, most of the time individual security is compromised. Although all four levels of
security are important, individual security is fundamental for ensuring the other three types of
security. As discussed earlier security is directly linked to climate change. Climate change will
impact security at all levels, individual, national, regional and global security
Food insecurity alone will shake the country. The food crises of 2008 led to riots that spread
across many countries and in Pakistan many people lost lives in Karachi during the distribution
of flour. Food insecurity also breeds other types of insecurity. Although there is no empirical
evidence available but the SDPI Food Insecurity 2003 and 2009 reports indicate that the most
food insecure districts of Pakistan e.g. North Waziristan, South Waziristan, Kohlo, Dera Bhugti
etc, are the hub of conflicts and extremism. Pakistan has had to engage a large number of army
personals and immense resources to handle the situation in these areas. This connection
shows that there is indeed a link between food insecurity and violence.
In spite of these clear evidences Pakistan had not invested much on building the capability and
capacity of national institutes to cater to the challenge of climate change related disasters and
its impacts on national security. Unfortunately, the capability and capacity of the government of
Pakistan to tackle climate change related disasters is very limited. Although Pakistan created
NDMA, its capacity and capability is very limited. The flood of 2010, 2011 and Atta Abad Lake
incidents exposed the incapability and incapacity of NDMA and other disaster related institutes.
Right from inception of Pakistan, the Pakistan Army has been the only reliable institution to cope
with the challenge of disasters. In 2010 and 2011 the Army was the main institute that could
rescue and provide relief to people. The main reason for this is the incapability of other institutes
like NDMA, Flood Commission of Pakistan etc. These institutions could not flourish due to lack
of investment in human capital and non-availability of required financial resources. Although it is
not desirable to engage the military in relief activities Pakistan has no other option. Army is the
only the well organized and functional institute which can deliver on time and with efficiency. A
weak governance system and corruption weakens the capability of civil institutes to deliver the
desired results. If the army is involved it will have to compromise on other fronts e.g. war on
terror. Furthermore, the army can only intervene at the time of a disaster not in the process of
preparedness. Therefore, the government should develop civil institutes, so that the impact of
disasters can be minimized. The government should also create institutes to ensure food

security despite the unpredictability of climate change. Otherwise it would be extremely difficult
to control the situation and it may lead to conflicts and instability in the country as discussed
above.
In addition, the government must plan according to the future and take some innovative steps
to tackle climate change. Pakistan should not wait for consensus at the international level. In the
absence of accurate and efficient policies, Pakistan will not able to tackle climate change.
Climate change is uncertain and uncertainty requires preemptive steps to control and minimize
the loss. If we wait for too long, hoping for conformity of the effects, then it may be too late. As
General Gordon Sullivan, former Army Chief of Staff, USA, talking on the uncertainty of climate
change, and Climate Change and National Security said, Speaking as a soldier, we never have
100 percent certainty. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to
happen on the battlefield.