IPADSFoodResources

14December2014

WORLDAGRICULTUREETOWARDS2030/2050(FAO)

Chapter1:Overview(2)
1. Howwillproductionrespond?Somemoreland
andwateruse,withyieldsslowingdown
2. Globalresourcesaresufficient,butthedevilis
local
3. Whatsnext?Beyond2050
KensukeOkada(akokada@mail.ecc.utokyo.ac.jp)
LaboratoryofAgriculturalDevelopmentStudies(LADS)
DepartmentofGlobalAgriculturalSciences
GraduateSchoolofAgriculturalandLifeSciences
TheUniversityofTokyo

1.Land
(p.10)

GAEZ aportaltoobtainproductionresourcesand
potentialproductivity
http://www.fao.org/nr/gaez/en/

Estimating
availablelandarea
usingGAEZ
database

Region

All Classes

SI > 0 :
SI = 0 : Not
Very
suitable
marginal
10198786.42 666813.69
10770744.58 789574.53
473528.1563 313947.96
2265931.72 868700.28
4601577.416 90063.566
6401466.338 356972.03
8921867.387 657179.18
7578514.364 4131228.1

SI > 1 0 :
Margin al

SI > 4 0 : SI > 5 5 : SI > 7 0 :

Me diu m Good
High

Northern America
Europe
Central America and Caribbean
South America
Oceania
Sub-Saharan Africa
Northern Africa and West Asia
Southern and Eastern Asia

21247304.03
22778380.16
2723094.577
17811457.3
8069734.989
24269253.66
12058520.13
25,764,162

Total

134721907.2 51212416.38 7874479.4 11497279.5 12707098 12942734 16011546 12455084.26

Cumulative (km2)
Cumulative (billion ha)

131699276.6
13.16992766

2106794.27
1489136.67
444327.483
1319818.04
374324.379
1176602.18
1101275.81
3485000.71

SI > 2 5 :
Mode rat
e
1566081
1805736
422327.6
1840139
1104274
2527222
503390.9
2937929

1092754 1798922 1686914.856

1689227 1659171 2292596.274
324374.6
301964 278087.6644
3709339 3970278 2127601.649
747826.4 511661.4 393611.9284
2905462 5282290 3777974.826
289284.9 201428.8 149574.4575
2184467 2285831 1748722.601

SI > 8 5 :
Ve ry
h igh
1335831
1714922
94060.58
1472921
58570.91
1497987
37644.78
786702.5

6998639
6998639
80486860 72612380.9 61115101 48408003 35465269 19453723.13 6998639
8.048686 7 .2 6 12 3 8 1
6.11151
4.8408 3.546527 1.945372313 0.699864

Undefined Water
352775
267860.4
49844.35
86627.04
91677.58
75526.16
37234.61
218737.4

441632.5
299412.4
20632.17
150102.7
96147.3
267751.6
159639.3
407030

1180283

1842348

Potentialavailableland(p.10)
7.2(1.60.075)=5.7(billionha)

5.7(2.8+1.5)=1.4

Potentialavailableland(p.10)
Landwithrainfed potential:7.2billionha
7.2(1.60.075)=5.7(billion)
1.6:currentlyinuseforcropproduction
0.075(partofabove)isirrigateddesert
Within5.7
2.8:forest,protectedarea,humansettlements,etc.
1.5:marginallyandverymarginallysuitableland
RemainingPrimeland:1.4 billionha(=5.72.81.5)

0.349+1.064=1.413billionha

Landusechangesby2050
Landundercropshavetoincreaseby70million ha
by2050
+132million

400+314+37+4+94+485=1334mha or1.3bha

Increasein70millionha.(=+13263)

Howisthelandexpansionby2050calculated?
Letsdiscussthispointlater.

But..(p.11,prg.3)
Whatarethetworeasonswhywecannotbeoptimistic
regardingtheavailabilityofthelands?
1. Cost
2.Unevendistributionofthegoodlandsamongcountries
13countriesaccountfor60%ofthe1.4millionha.
(seefootnoteofpage11.)
Howcanyouexplain(2)fromFig.1.7?
ReadP.12,Prg.1fortheconclusiveremarks.

Potential of African Guinea Savannah

12

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTARD/Resources/sleeping_giant.pdf

Agricultural
potential
600 m ha -- Africas
Guinea Savannah
zone
400 m ha can be
used for agriculture

40 m ha already
utilized
360 m ha -- unutilized
13

Characteristics of Africas Guinea

Savannah Zone
Warm tropical climate with 800-1,200 mm of
rainfall annually, highly variable
Growing period of 150-210 days
Soil
Lixisols low-activity clays, high-base saturation
Acrisols acid soils with lower saturation
Arenosols acid sandy soils

Major farming systems

(a) root crop, (b) mixed cereal-root crop, (c) maize
mixed
14

Two savanna regions recently developed

Wikipedia

CerradosBrazil

Wikipedia

North-east
Thailand
15

http://morriscourse.com/elements_of_ecology/chapter_23.htm

Cerrados in Brazil

16

(p. 12)

2. WATER
17

Water resource

Worldirrigatedarea:300millionha
RenewablewatersourceisscarceinNearEast
18
/NorthAfrica,orNorthernChina.

Check 4.2.4 (p.112) for the basis of the future projection

19

Countries of excess water use

(p.13, prg. 6)

A country using more than 20% of its

renewable resources for irrigation is at the
threshold of water scarcity.
There are already 22 countries crossed
this border.
13 of them is higher than 40%
4 countries (Libya, Saudi Arabia, Yemen
and Egypt) using more than the resources.
20

(p. 13, 7 parg)

3. YIELD
21

Harvested area (mha)

YIELD (t/ha)

Yield (p.13, LL3)

How is the implication of this graph

discussed.

Growth rate
=3.1%

Growth rate
=1.8%

Growth rate
=1.3%
Should this decreasing
growth rate be
concerned?
22

Projected yield in 2050 (p.15)

2050 (linear)
Wheat
2.8 3.8 (4.8)
Rice
4.1 5.3 (6.5)
Coarse grains (Maize) 3.2 4.2 (5.2)
These are the composite estimates

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