The Future of the

Islamic State

THE FUTURE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE

The Future of the Islamic State

We look into the details of the ongoing conflict with the Islamic
State and forecast the impact it will have on the future. We analyze
several key advantages and disadvantages of the current efforts to
quell the IS and what the long-term impact of these efforts will be.
Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for how the
future of the Islamic State will impact our world.
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The Future of the Islamic State

The Islamic State is a unique jihadist entity. Unlike
all prior jihadist movements, IS has achieved the
status of a state actor it controls, governs and
defends territory. Unlike the Taliban, which ruled
Afghanistan for five years prior to the 9/11 attacks, IS established a transnational caliphate by
disregarding the borders between Syria and Iraq.
Taking advantage of the failing Iraqi and Syrian
states, IS seized large tracts of territory on both
sides of the border and set up a viable economy.

IS will have to limit its spending, but its economy will likely survive because its opponents
cannot shut down its revenue from taxing the
population under its control.
In addition to the logistical problems facing IS
challengers, they are composed of multiple actors with competing interests and thus suffer
from deep incoherence.
Without accepting high levels of casualties,
many of them civilian, IS opponents will not be
able to dislodge it from its core turf.

IS has not been able to expand the frontiers of its

caliphate and has experienced some territorial
losses since late 2015. However, IS remains entrenched in eastern Syria and western Iraq. More
recently, it has also demonstrated the capability to
stage transcontinental terrorist attacks, particularly in Europe.

In the event that IS is uprooted in the future,

its opponents will find it very difficult to administer the liberated areas, thus creating the
conditions for an IS comeback.

The United States has pulled together a major

international military effort to dismantle the twoyear-old IS caliphate. This report seeks to understand the outcome of this American-led effort,
which relies heavily on local and regional forces.
We begin with a detailed assessment of IS current
economic and military status. We then examine
a highly complex U.S. strategy to degrade the
jihadist regime by carrying out offensives on its
western and eastern flanks. The final section explains why, in our view, IS will not be destroyed (at
least not any time soon), even though it may lose
additional territories and be further weakened.

The one force that can prove to be an existential threat to IS is Turkey, but it has been reluctant to take the lead on the ground. Ankara
fears that a weakened IS will enable Kurdish
separatism at home and in Syria. Turkey is
also generally hesitant to take a lead role in
the broader Syrian conflict.
A future collapse of the caliphate will not necessarily mean an end to IS as an organization
the group has exhibited a strong ability to
revive in the past. Even if IS is gutted at some
point in the future, there is no shortage of other groups that can build on IS caliphal project.

Our key findings include:

Introduction

The tactical losses that IS incurs should not

be interpreted as strategic gains for its opponents. IS will likely retain control over much of
its core turf along the Euphrates River between
Raqqa and Deir el-Zour.
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At the political heart of classical Islam is the idea

that the Muslim world ought to be governed by
a single ruler a caliph. Except for the time of
Islams founding, there has never been a single,

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THE FUTURE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE

unifying caliphate encompassing the entire Muslim world. There have been multiple caliphates
often competing along with smaller polities such
as emirates and sultanates encompassing part
of that world, some of substantial size. But never
one single caliphate.

geographic foundation of its envisioned caliphate.

In adopting this strategy, jihadism moved from
primarily carrying out terrorist attacks to forming
a conventional fighting force designed to take and
hold territory, with terrorism as a secondary tactic.
This is a fundamental shift in jihadist strategy.

It has always been the goal of contemporary

jihadists to re-establish the caliphate and to see
it challenge the non-Muslim world. Al-Qaidas main
goal in attacking the United States was to trigger
uprisings in key U.S.-backed, Muslim-majority
countries. Al-Qaida hoped to take advantage of
popular dissatisfaction within these countries to
create the foundation of a new caliphate. However, no mass Muslim uprising occurred, and al-Qaida did not seize a single state.

IS has created a conventional fighting force and it

holds substantial territory. From our perspective,
IS is one of the most impressive Arab fighting
forces in generations. Its most impressive characteristic is its ability to absorb defeats, retreat,
regroup and strike at weak points on its enemys
front. The measure of an army is the ability to
absorb and recover from setbacks. IS can do this
well.
There is talk of defeating IS, which is measured
in terms of retaking territory. The real goal should
not be to retake territory, but the destruction of
the enemy army, rendering it incapable of fighting and then taking territory. IS has undoubtedly
experienced losses, but it has not lost the will or

The Islamic State continued al-Qaidas project

not by overthrowing an existing state, but by
attempting to create a new one. The key to this
was seizing substantial territory in the weakened
states of Iraq and Syria, which would serve as the

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ability to fight. The fundamental question to be
addressed in this study is the state of IS militarily,
the likely course of the war and the future consequences of both its defeat and its continued
survival.

Russias most prominent problem (and whether the Russians will correct it)

Conclusion

Which county will lose its status as a consolidated world power (and the reasons for its
inevitable decline)

The long-term impact of low oil prices (and

which countries will be most affected)

Examining the current standing of the Islamic

States primary and secondary objectives demonstrates that, despite recent territory losses, IS is
bent but not broken. It maintains complete control
of its heartland no enemy forces are currently
able to directly attack it successfully without high
levels of casualties, to say nothing of the potential
toll on civilians. The Islamic State has lost territory
and likely will continue to do so, but as long as it
maintains control of the heartland from Raqqa to
Deir el-Zour, it retains its defensible position.

The dominant power in East Asia by 2040 (and

the events leading up to its rise)
Who will be forced to confront the Islamic
State (and whether they will be successful)
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With IS still undefeated, it has never been more

important to be aware of how geopolitical events
shape emerging and future trends. The full version
of this special report available only to premium subscribers goes into all the details of the
future of IS and what will need to be done to stop
it in the future.

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Which country will emerge as a new major
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Two fundamental weaknesses of Europe (and
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