PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

26 May 2010

Malaysia Corporate Highlights

RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

Marke t Upda te
26 May 2010
MARKET DATELINE

Shifting Trends
Seeking Shelter In Domestic Plays

♦ Looking for the bottom. The FBM KLCI has erased all its gains and
Table 1. FBM KLCI (2009-2010)
more during the first five months of 2010 since turning downwards on 13
May. We expect the market to remain volatile, with the risk on the
downside towards the technical support levels of 1,229 and 1,154 as
highlighted by RHBRI’s technical research. Assuming no downside to our
current forecasts, we have compared against historical valuations and
market data in order to find possible fundamental support levels for the
benchmark FBM KLCI.

♦ PER. Average one-year forward PER for the FBM KLCI stocks since 2000
is estimated to be around 15x, and one standard deviation (SD) below the
mean is estimated to be around 13.3x. As it stands, the 2010 PER for the Source: Bloomberg
FBM KLCI has already headed down from 16.1x in Apr to 14.2x currently.
We also highlight that the next technical support of 1,154 for the FBM Table 1. Domestic Plays
KLCI also implies a 2010 PER of 13.3x based on stocks under coverage.
Price FV Rec
♦ FBM KLCI average returns. Over the last 32 years, annual returns from (RM) (RM)
the FBM KLCI have averaged around 13%, including the 39.3% pullback Maxis 5.12 6.20 OP
in 2008, the 45.2% bounce in 2009, and the flat 2010 so far (after the Tenaga 8.12 10.40 OP
rise and fall over the last five months). Simplistically, we note a pullback PLUS 3.30 4.13 OP
of 1SD below the mean would be around -17.6%. However, we note that Allianz 4.80 6.68 OP
the benchmark index has fallen 1SD (or more) below the mean only AEON 4.99 5.80 OP
seven times over the last 32 years. As it stands, the FBM KLCI has KFC 8.50 9.63 OP
already fallen by 7.2% from the peak this year. KPJ 2.71 3.20 MP
B-Toto 4.29 4.95 OP
♦ Domestic plays likely to be more resilient. Having painted a near-
# As at 25 May
term bearish picture for the market, we highlight that the correction is
Source: Bloomberg, RHBRI
driven more by external factors relating to fears over global
macroeconomic conditions especially in the EU. We acknowledge that
these concerns could result in some of our earnings forecasts coming Table 2. Asia Consumer Plays
under pressure. Therefore, in our view, companies that have little or Price FV Rec
hedged exposure to overseas markets or imported costs are likely to be (RM) (RM)
more resilient. These domestic plays include Maxis, TNB, PLUS, Allianz, Carlsberg 4.64 5.90 OP
AEON, KFC, KPJ and B-Toto (see Table 1). Axiata 3.58 4.53 OP

♦ Casting further afield. Casting our net further afield, we believe

Parkson 5.12 6.40 OP
# As at 25 May
individual consumer markets in Asia are also relatively sheltered given the
Source: Bloomberg, RHBRI
higher savings rate, growing consumption spending and large young
population. These Asia consumer plays would include Carlsberg
(expanding in Singapore), Axiata (expanding mobile footprint across Asia)
and Parkson (expanding in China and Vietnam).

♦ Long-term outlook still positive. In our view, the long-term economic

picture remains positive although we acknowledge that the revival of past
concerns about the strength of the global economic recovery will continue
to cause volatility in the market. We believe investors should view the
Yap Huey Chiang
downshift in the market as an opportunity to buy on weakness although
(603) 92802171
we recommend focusing on fundamentally-robust stocks with positive and yap.huey.chiang@rhb.com.my
visible earnings outlook, good management and are attractively valued.

Please read important disclosures at the end of this report.

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Bracing For More Correction

♦ Global markets take a beating. The FBM KLCI has erased all its gains and more during the first five months of
2010 since turning downwards from the 13 May peak of 1,346.92. In the last month alone, the FBM KLCI has
fallen by 6.5%. However, we note that other markets around the world have comparatively done far worse over
the last month (see Table 3). We again highlight that RHBRI’s technical research team has indicated a first
support level for the FBM KLCI of 1,229 and a second support level of 1,154.

Table 3. Malaysia Performance Vs. Major Markets

YTD Absolute Perf. MoM Absolute Perf. YTD Rel. Perf. Vs. MoM Rel. Perf Vs.
Company (%) (%) FBM KLCI (%) FBM KLCI (%)
MSCI Europe & Middle East (9.9) (16.5) (8.1) (10.0)
Indonesia (0.8) (14.0) 1.0 (7.6)
MSCI Asia Pacific Ex Japan (10.7) (13.3) (9.0) (6.8)
MSCI World (8.9) (13.2) (7.2) (6.7)
MSCI UK (6.5) (11.4) (4.7) (4.9)
Singapore (8.5) (11.3) (6.7) (4.8)
Hong Kong (13.2) (10.6) (11.4) (4.2)
Germany (5.6) (10.2) (3.9) (3.7)
US DJIA (3.5) (10.2) (1.7) (3.7)
Korea (7.2) (10.1) (5.5) (3.7)
MSCI AC Asia (4.8) (8.7) (3.0) (2.2)
MSCI China (10.1) (8.3) (8.3) (1.8)
MSCI India (5.4) (7.3) (3.6) (0.8)
Malaysia (1.8) (6.5) - -
Thailand (1.8) (4.4) (0.0) 2.1
Philippines 1.6 (4.4) 3.4 2.1
Source: Bloomberg

♦ Looking for the bottom. We thus expect the market to remain volatile, with the risk of overshooting the
technical support levels of 1,229 and 1,154 as highlighted by RHBRI’s technical research if investors lose
confidence in corporate earnings. Assuming no downside to our current forecasts for stocks under coverage
(which assume 17.3% and 15.5% p.a. normalised EPS growth for 2010 and 2011 respectively), we have
compared against historical valuations and market data in order to find possible fundamental support levels for
the benchmark FBM KLCI.

♦ PER. Average one-year forward PER for the FBM KLCI stocks since 2000 is estimated to be around 15x, and one
standard deviation (SD) below the mean is estimated to be around 13.3x. As it stands, the 2010 PER for the
FBM KLCI has already headed down from 16.1x in Apr to 14.2x currently. We also highlight that the next
technical support level of 1,154 for the FBM KLCI coincidentally also implies a 2010 PER of 13.3x based on the
stocks under our coverage.

♦ FBM KLCI average returns. Over the last 32 years, annual returns from the FBM KLCI have averaged around
13%, including the 39.3% pullback in 2008, the 45.2% bounce in 2009, and the flat 2010 so far (after the rise
and fall over the last five months). Simplistically, we note a pullback of one standard deviation (1SD) below the
mean would be around -17.6%. However, we note that the benchmark index has only fallen 1SD (or more)
below the mean seven times over the last 32 years. As it stands, the FBM KLCI has already fallen by 7.2% from
the peak just nine trading days ago.

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 26 May 2010

Chart 2. FBM KLCI Annual Returns

Yo Y chg (%) FB M KLCI

120.0 1,600

100.0 1,400

80.0
1,200

60.0
+1 STD DEV 1,000
40.0
800
20.0
600
0.0

400
-20.0
-1 STD DEV

-40.0 200

-60.0 0
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Yo Y Chg FB M KLCI (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, RHBRI

Seeking Shelter

♦ Domestic plays are likely to be more resilient. Having painted a bearish picture for the market, we highlight
that the correction is driven more by external factors relating to fears over global macroeconomic conditions
especially in the EU. In our view, the domestic market is overreacting to these external drivers and has equally
marked down companies that have little or hedged exposure to the overseas markets. These domestic plays
include:

o Maxis (OP, FV = RM6.20). A domestic mobile operator, we believe Maxis has significant growth prospects
from the non-voice segment including broadband and advanced data services. We note that Maxis is
spending around RM1.3bn on capex in FY10 and RM1.2bn for FY11-12 to improve coverage. We believe a
large portion of the capex would be spent on imported cellular transmission equipment but the stronger
ringgit would help to reduce capex requirements. On dividends, although our DPS forecasts are based on
75% payout ratio, we project a net debt/EBITDA of 0.7x by end-2010, which leaves considerable room for
capital management potential given that management would still be comfortable with a net debt/EBITDA of
1.75-2x.

o TNB (OP, FV = RM10.40). Other than 100%-owned Liberty Power in Pakistan (which contributed 1.6% of
TNB’s 1HFY08/10 revenue), and coal (which is imported and priced in USD, and accounted for 18.5% of
total costs up to 1HFY10). Incremental coal cost is already passed on to consumers via an informal and
adhoc fuel cost pass through approval process but a formal mechanism is expected to be approved this
year. Therefore, taking out the fluctuations that could arise if the formula was not in place, we highlight that
the utility’s earnings are mostly driven by domestic factors. As it stands, demand growth for the first eight
months of FY08/10 has risen by 8.65% yoy, and we anticipate around 5% p.a. growth for FY11-12.

o PLUS (OP, FV = RM4.13). PLUS derives almost all its revenue from the domestic toll road business.
Overseas, tolling operations of both Padalur-Trichy and Mhiwandi-Kalyan-Shil Phata highways in India are
expected to contribute 1.2% of total FY10 toll revenue. In Indonesia, PLUS is targeting to commence
construction of the US$1.2bn Cikampek-Palimanan Expressway (which accounted for 26-27% of total fixed
assets as at 31 Mar) by FY10. As at 31 Mar, 98.9% of PLUS’s total debt of RM11.1bn was denominated in
ringgit, while the remaining 1.1% was denominated in rupiah (for the construction of the Indonesia
expressway). Although we see potential earnings risk from a hike in petrol prices that will result in lower
traffic volume at its core expressways (which account for 85% of domestic toll revenue), we highlight that
the impact would likely be temporary and contained. Recall, traffic volume contracted by 0.1% yoy in
2QFY06 (down from a 1.4% yoy growth in registered in 1QFY06), following the 30 sen/litre hike in RON97
petrol price end-Feb 06. However, by 3QFY06, PLUS had already started to shrug off the impact, recording
0.8% yoy growth in traffic volume. Traffic volumes subsequently normalised in 4QFY12/06 (+4.2% yoy).

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o Allianz (OP, FV = RM6.68). Although Allianz is 75%-owned by Germany’s Allianz SE, the local company is
primarily a domestic insurer with zero exposure to overseas markets. We expect Allianz to have strong
earnings growth prospects of 29.7% for FY11 and 15.8% for FY12 assuming above-average premium growth
for both general and life insurance. The life insurance business has reached critical mass in terms of agent
recruitment and marketing costs, which should translate to higher profit transfer going forward. We note
that changes to the motor third party insurance structure would likely be positive for the sector.

o AEON (OP, FV = RM5.80). AEON currently has 23 retail stores in Malaysia and plans to add two stores
p.a. over the next three years. While there are plans to expand to Vietnam, we believe this will not
materialise at least for another two years. Within its operations, we estimate that 10-20% of its products
(mainly in the foodstuff range) are imported. Nevertheless, we believe these products are fast moving and
thus are priced relative to forex changes. In our view, AEON continues to be well-placed to benefit from the
growth in private consumption in Malaysia which has nearly doubled in real terms between 2000 and 2009
from RM155.9bn to RM278.8bn (CAGR of 6.7%). In 2010, RHBRI’s economics team projects private
consumption to grow by 4.8% to RM292.1bn in the early stage of the global economic recovery cycle. This
also ties in with AEON management’s guidance of 3-4% same store sales growth in FY10.

o KFC (OP, FV = RM9.63). KFC has 475 outlets in Malaysia and plans to add about 40 new outlets p.a. over
the next three years. KFC also has nine outlets in Brunei and 77 outlets in Singapore, although these are
relatively smaller markets and account for just 16% of total revenue vs. 84% from Malaysia. KFC is
currently expanding into the India market and plans to open 10-12 outlets p.a. for the next three years.
Within its operations, we estimate that 10-15% of its raw materials (corn and soy feed) are imported in US$
and locked in for a 3-4 months period. Hence, KFC would benefit from a stronger ringgit. In our view, KFC is
also well-placed to benefit from the growth in private consumption in Malaysia, albeit higher than RHBRI’s
private consumption growth estimate. KFC’s management guided for 7% same store sales growth in FY10.

o KPJ Healthcare (OP, FV = RM3.20). KPJ owns 21 private specialist hospitals across Malaysia and
Indonesia with a total of 2,100 beds. In Indonesia, the company operates two private specialist hospitals
outside Jakarta city in order to take advantage of the capital city’s large population. The company also has
operations in Singapore mainly involved in the trading of pharmaceutical products. However, revenue from
these two countries account for less than 10% of KPJ's total revenue. We estimate around 27% of cost is
attributable to material costs for drugs produced locally and abroad, and therefore the stronger ringgit may
help to partly offset any increase in imported drug costs. KPJ targets to achieve 10-15% revenue and
bottomline growth p.a. driven by: 1) Opening of two new hospitals p.a. in Malaysia; 2) Expansion of existing
hospitals; and 3) Higher utilisation rate per patient given the higher uptake of medical insurance policies in
Malaysia as well as greater health awareness will lead to stronger revenue/patient.

o Berjaya Sports Toto (OP, FV = RM4.95). Other than the Philippines horse racing business (which has
been making steady losses), B-Toto’s business is mainly domestic. The gaming company now has six games
(including three digit-type games and three lotto-type games) targeting a domestic legal market of around
RM10bn and an illegal market of roughly the same size. The company will potentially also benefit from the
1% commissions (although this would be shared with the B-Toto’s agents) derived as a distributor for
Berjaya Corp’s recently-approved sports betting operations, but at this stage the impact is expected to be
minimal.

♦ Domestic plays that may be affected by external factors.

o Genting Malaysia. While we note that Genting Malaysia is a pure domestic play, its market will likely
continue to be affected by the opening of two new casinos in Singapore.

o Motor. We also note the motor companies are primarily domestic plays but they are exposed to currency
fluctuations. Of the four motor companies that we cover, Proton has the least exposure to USD and Yen (25-
30% of total costs), although we note that Tan Chong appears to be more flexible in stocking up on CKD kits
when the Yen is weak compared to UMW and Proton which practice Just-In-Time (JIT) inventory
management and therefore are less able to take advantage of currency movements.

o Media Prima. Although revenue is primarily driven by the local market and we see 14.3% gross adex
growth this year, 40% of Media Prima’s content cost is from foreign programming (or 12-14% of total
operating costs). However, this is mitigated by: 1) increase in local content commissioned by the company
itself; and 2) strengthening of the ringgit. We also highlight that NSTP’s newsprint costs account for 10-13%
of total costs although the company has around six months’ stocks at an average of around US$635/tonne.

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♦ Casting further afield. We believe some regional plays especially in certain consumer markets in Asia have
been marked down in the market correction despite positive fundamentals. We believe these consumer markets
are relatively sheltered given the higher savings rate, growing consumption spending and young demographics.
Therefore, casting our net further afield, we highlight Asia consumer plays include Carlsberg (with operations in
Malaysia and Singapore), Axiata (expanding regional mobile footprint in Asia), and Parkson (expanding in China
and Vietnam).

Conclusion

♦ Long-term outlook still positive. In our view, the long-term economic picture remains positive although we
acknowledge that the revival of past concerns about the strength of the global economic recovery will continue
to cause volatility in the market. We believe investors should view the downshift in the market as an opportunity
to buy on weakness although we recommend focusing on fundamentally-robust stocks with positive and visible
earnings outlook, good management and are attractively valued (see RHBRI’s top picks in Table 5).

Table 4. Forecasts And Valuations

Price FV EPS PER PBV PCF GDY
FYE (RM/s) (RM/s) (sen) EPS Growth (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) Rec
25-May FY10 FY11 FY10 FY11 FY10 FY11 FY10 FY10 FY10
Domestic Plays
Maxis Dec 5.12 6.20 33.2 36.2 6.6 9.1 15.4 14.1 3.8 10.0 6.5 OP
Tenaga Aug 8.12 10.40 70.7 80.9 42.0 14.4 11.5 10.0 1.3 4.4 3.5 OP
PLUS Dec 3.30 4.13 23.6 36.3 -0.3 53.5 14.0 9.1 2.7 8.4 5.5 OP
Allianz Dec 4.80 6.68 71.9 86.2 -7.0 19.9 6.7 5.6 1.2 7.2 0.4 OP
AEON Dec 4.99 5.80 41.4 45.2 8.7 9.4 12.1 11.0 1.6 11.0 2.4 OP
KFC Dec 8.50 9.63 77.1 89.5 17.2 16.2 11.0 9.5 1.9 7.0 3.1 OP
KPJ Dec 2.71 3.20 21.9 23.2 17.3 6.0 12.4 11.7 1.9 11.1 5.2 MP
Media Prima Dec 2.03 2.55 16.3 18.0 +>100.0 10.1 12.4 11.3 2.0 6.3 4.9 OP
B-Toto^ Apr 4.29 4.95 32.4 34.0 5.5 5.0 13.3 12.6 12.3 17.4 5.6 OP

Asia Consumer Plays

Carlsberg Dec 4.64 5.90 42.1 44.3 68.1 5.3 11.0 10.5 2.5 21.1 5.4 OP
Axiata Dec 3.58 4.53 23.6 27.1 28.8 14.8 15.1 13.2 1.5 5.9 0.0 OP
Parkson Jun 5.12 6.40 29.2 36.3 15.0 24.3 17.5 14.1 2.7 6.9 1.4 OP
^ FY10-11 valuations refer to those of FY11-FY12 Source: RHBRI, Bloomberg

Table 5. RHBRI’s Top Picks

Price FV EPS PER PBV PCF GDY
FYE (RM/s) (RM/s) (sen) EPS Growth (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) Rec
25-May FY10 FY11 FY10 FY11 FY10 FY11 FY10 FY10 FY10
Maybank Jun 7.03 8.96 51.3 60.7 35.7 18.1 13.7 11.6 1.8 n.a. 4.1 OP
CIMB Dec 6.58 8.12 47.8 56.3 20.1 17.8 13.8 11.7 2.1 n.a. 1.4 OP
Maxis Dec 5.12 6.20 33.2 36.2 6.6 9.1 15.4 14.1 3.8 10.0 6.5 OP
Tenaga Aug 8.12 10.40 70.7 80.9 42.0 14.4 11.5 10.0 1.3 4.4 3.5 OP
Genting Dec 6.35 8.95 45.8 56.1 38.9 22.5 13.9 11.3 1.5 5.6 1.5 OP
KLK Sep 15.56 18.40 87.5 123.3 23.7 40.8 17.8 12.6 2.7 14.3 2.9 OP
Top Glove Aug 12.10 15.50 89.0 96.2 55.3 8.1 13.6 12.6 3.6 11.1 3.7 OP
IJM Land^ Mar 2.06 3.19 18.4 34.4 88.5 87.2 11.2 6.0 1.2 4.2 1.0 OP
Media Prima Dec 2.03 2.55 16.3 18.0 +>100 10.1 12.4 11.3 2.0 6.3 4.9 OP
Sunway City Dec 3.40 5.33 34.8 38.8 9.8 11.6 9.8 8.8 0.7 6.3 2.4 OP
Unisem Dec 2.55 4.06 27.1 36.1 134.8 33.5 9.4 7.1 1.2 3.0 2.0 OP
Kossan Dec 7.08 10.74 82.6 103.0 10.3 24.7 8.6 6.9 2.4 7.5 1.5 OP
Faber Dec 2.10 3.40 26.5 24.2 16.4 -8.8 7.9 8.7 1.6 5.0 3.3 OP
Evergreen Dec 1.33 2.35 21.3 23.3 26.1 9.4 6.2 5.7 0.9 8.8 3.8 OP
Notion Vtec Sep 2.63 4.68 34.7 46.8 35.3 35.1 7.6 5.6 2.0 5.6 2.5 OP
Daibochi Dec 2.71 4.20 35.1 38.0 16.9 8.3 7.7 7.1 1.5 6.5 8.3 OP
^ FY10-11 valuations refer to those of FY11-FY12 Source: RHBRI, Bloomberg

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The opinions
and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or be
contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

The recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows : -

Stock Ratings

Outperform = The stock return is expected to exceed the FBM KLCI benchmark by greater than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.

Trading Buy = Short-term positive development on the stock that could lead to a re-rating in the share price and translate into an absolute return of 15% or
more over a period of three months, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant an Outperform call. It is generally for investors who are willing to take
on higher risks.

Market Perform = The stock return is expected to be in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark (+/- five percentage points) over the next 6-12 months.

Underperform = The stock return is expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark by more than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.

Industry/Sector Ratings

Overweight = Industry expected to outperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

Neutral = Industry expected to perform in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

Underweight = Industry expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for
the actions of third parties in this respect.

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