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Shyam Bhawan, Ashok Nagar, Road No. 11, Kankarbagh Colony, Patna-800020
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Ministry of Earth Sciences, Prithvi Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003
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H.No. 6-3-565, Flat No. 301, Akshaya Apartment, Somajiguda, Hyderabad- 500082
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Meteorological Office, C.S.I. Airport, NTC, Mumbai-400099
*Corresponding Author: vinodmanjusingh@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Cold fronts with associated westerly waves (mid-latitude low pressure systems: 30S-60S) move north of
30S from west coast of South Africa (10E or even from 40W) to west coast of Australia (120E) during
southwest monsoon season (winter season: southern hemisphere). They influence Indian summer monsoon
rainfall significantly. Geo-potential height field of 850 hPa levels undergoes large changes in association
with the movement of cold fronts/ upper air troughs from 040W to 120E / 140E and north of 30S/40 S
during April-May. Moisture generated over Atlantic and Indian Oceans (from east of 40W to 120E) by cold
fronts/upper air troughs augment south easterly trades through low level subtropical anticyclones during
summer monsoon season as they move eastwards and equator-wards. Positive (high) and negative (low)
anomalies of 850 hPa level geo-potential heights during April-May, north of 40S from 40W to 120E/140E
have been used to forecast rainfall trend over India during the first week of June.
Key words: Cold fronts/upper air troughs, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, anomaly of 850 hPa geo- potential
heights and quantitative forecast.
INTRODUCTION
The failure of long range forecast of summer monsoon
rainfall in some of the years, e.g., 2002, 2004 and 2009, has
shown that the parameters, which affect Indian Summer
Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) most, could not be identified and
put in use (Kumar et al., 2011b). The country experienced
a deficit of 13% in the summer monsoon of 2004. As
in 2002, this deficit was not predicted either by the
operational empirical models of IMD or by the dynamical
models at national and international centers (Gadgil et al.,
2005). Predictions generated by the leading international
centers using complex models of the coupled Oceanatmosphere system could not foreshadow the drought in
2009. Models had generally predicted above average rainfall
for June-August 2009 over most of the Indian region.
Unfortunately, this turned out to be almost the opposite of
what was observed. For assessing the probable occurrence
of a drought, one has to either rely on past history or on
the links with phenomena that could be predicted, such
as El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Forecasting
ISMR, and more particularly its extreme seasons (Excess/
Drought), has, therefore, remained a challenging task
(Francis and Gadgil, 2009).
The strength of southwest monsoon current is
measured by the speed of 850 hPa winds over Arabian Sea,
Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. At the time of onset of
monsoon over Kerala, a strong Cross Equatorial Flow (CEF)
gets established in the lower troposphere over the Indian
Ocean and south Asia at about 850 hPa. The monsoon
current transports moisture generated over the Indian
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DATA
All India Monsoon Rainfall (AIMR) data from 1948 to
2014 have been collected from IMDs website. Anomalies
of 850/700 hPa level geo-potential height during April-May
and 850 hPa RH and meridional winds (June-September)
for 68 years period from 1948 t0 2015 have been prepared
by using NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (U.S.A.)
web site. Satellite clouds pictures (IR) for 14 years period
from 2002 to 2015, and upper air charts of World Area
Forecast Centre, London, for the period 2012-2015 have
been used. ECMWF analyzed mean sea level pressure and
850 hPa wind speed charts for the period 2012-2014 have
been used in the study.
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low or high- low- low or low- high- low- high etc.) should
be present at 850 hPa north of 40S/ 30S between 040W
-120E, for normal monsoon rainfall (% of long period
average; rainfall range: 96-104, 97% with an error of
6%). High and low must have horizontal and latitudinal
width at least 25 and 5, respectively. Also, high and low
may remain separated by not more than 20 on horizontal
scale. One high and one low combination has been observed
during 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1956, 1957, 1958,
1961, 1962, 1967, 1969, 1970 (also under continuous
low), 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986,
1989, 1991 (another high with only 20 lat. width), 1993,
1994, 1997 (prominent at 700 hPa), 1998 (prominent at
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Forecast
Remarks
Normal
Forecast did
not materialize
in 1951, 1974,
1986 and 2014.
High-low-high-low
Active normal
Forecast did
not materialize
in 1979.
Continuous low
Normal
Normal
Only low
Deficient
Low-high
1982 (85.5), 1987 (81.6), 2009 (78.2)
(low was more prominent at 700
hPa in 1982)
Deficient
Below normal
Weak high-low
(High weakened at 700 hPa.)
Deficient
1992 (92.3)
Deficient
Forecast Verification
Details of the realized rainfall and the forecast in individual
years have been given in Table 1. The forecasts of normal
rainfall did not materialize during 5 years (1951, 1974,
1979, 1986 and 2014) out of 56 years. Likely deficiency
in rainfall in these years could not be foreshadowed. This
implies that either the pre-cursors for deficient rainfall in
these years were unavailable in height anomaly field at
850 hPA/700 hPa or the deficient rainfall might have been
the result of large intra-seasonal changes. It could not be
possible also to forecast above normal and excess rainfall.
However, 101% 6% rainfall have been also forecast under
active normal range. During 11 active monsoon years,
forecast was okay in 9 (81%) years. Forecast was also okay
during deficient monsoon years of 1965, 1966, 1968, 1972,
1982, 1987, 2002 and 2009. Deficient rainfall forecast for
1992 did not materialize but the realized rainfall was below
normal. Also, below normal rainfall was forecasted during
2012 and 2015. The realized rainfall was below normal
in 2012 and deficient in 2015. It may be mentioned here
that rainfall was deficient in Jun (-22%) and Jul (-19%)
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CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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