Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Flood data
Annual series: A series consists of annual maximum discharges
Probability Paper
Probability paper is used to show the graphical relationship
Probability Paper
The scale of probability paper
Probability Paper
for Normal Distribution
Exceedance Probability
vs. Return Period
Exceedance probability (P):
The probability that a flood event of a specified discharge will be equaled or
Exceedance Probability
vs. Return Period
Return period (T):
The average length of time between the occurrence of two events of
0.01
0.02
0.04
0.1
0.2
0.5
T (Year)
100
50
25
10
Probability Distribution
Plotting-Position Methods
Plotting-position method can be used to check the goodness-of-fit of
i
n 1
Example
Weibull Plotting-Position Method (1/2)
Original Data
Ranked Data
Pi
i
23 1
Example
Weibull Plotting-Position Method (2/2)
10
Probability Distribution
Mathematical Models
Commonly used probability models in flood frequency
analysis include:
Normal distribution
Parameters: mean and standard deviation
Log-normal distribution
Parameters: mean and standard deviation
Log-Pearson type III distribution
Parameters: mean, standard deviation, and skew
coefficient
11
x
i 1
(x x)
i 1
n 1
n ( xi x )3
i 1
(n 1)(n 2) S 3
12
as follows:
X X KS
X = Random variable taken as peak discharges
13
T (years)
T (years)
0.0001
10,000
3.719
0.450
2.22
0.126
0.0005
2,000
3.291
0.500
2.00
0.000
0.001
1,000
3.090
0.550
1.82
-0.126
0.002
500
2.880
0.600
1.67
-0.253
0.003
333
2.760
0.650
1.54
-0.385
0.004
250
2.650
0.700
1.43
-0.524
0.005
200
2.576
0.750
1.33
-0.674
0.010
100
2.326
0.800
1.25
-0.842
0.025
40
1.960
0.850
1.18
-1.036
0.050
20
1.845
0.900
1.11
-1.282
0.100
10
1.282
0.950
1.05
-1.465
0.150
6.67
1.036
0.975
1.03
-1.960
0.200
5.00
0.842
0.990
1.01
-2.326
0.250
4.00
0.674
0.995
1.01
2.576
0.300
3.33
0.524
0.999
1.00
-3.090
0.350
2.86
0.385
0.9995
1.00
-3.291
0.400
2.50
0.253
0.9999
1.00
-3.719
14
15
16
Y Y KS y
Y = Random variable taken as log values of discharges. In other
words, Y = log(X).
Y = Mean of the sample in logarithm
Sy = Standard deviation of the sample in logarithm
K = Frequency factor, which is a function of exceedance
17
T (years)
T (years)
0.0001
10,000
3.719
0.450
2.22
0.126
0.0005
2,000
3.291
0.500
2.00
0.000
0.001
1,000
3.090
0.550
1.82
-0.126
0.002
500
2.880
0.600
1.67
-0.253
0.003
333
2.760
0.650
1.54
-0.385
0.004
250
2.650
0.700
1.43
-0.524
0.005
200
2.576
0.750
1.33
-0.674
0.010
100
2.326
0.800
1.25
-0.842
0.025
40
1.960
0.850
1.18
-1.036
0.050
20
1.845
0.900
1.11
-1.282
0.100
10
1.282
0.950
1.05
-1.465
0.150
6.67
1.036
0.975
1.03
-1.960
0.200
5.00
0.842
0.990
1.01
-2.326
0.250
4.00
0.674
0.995
1.01
2.576
0.300
3.33
0.524
0.999
1.00
-3.090
0.350
2.86
0.385
0.9995
1.00
-3.291
0.400
2.50
0.253
0.9999
1.00
-3.719
18
19
20
Y Y KS y
Y = Sample of data taken as logarithms of discharges,
namely ( Y log X )
21
Frequency Factor K
for Log-Pearson Type III Distribution (1/2)
22
Frequency Factor K
for Log-Pearson Type III Distribution (2/2)
23
24
25