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Brazil|EconomicForecasts|20162020Outlook

Overview

Actual

Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020

GDPGrowthRate(/brazil/gdp
growth/forecast)

1.70

1.9

1.3

0.1

0.21 3

percent [+](/brazil/gdpgrowth)

UnemploymentRate
(/brazil/unemploymentrate/forecast)

7.50

7.9

8.3

8.7

9.1

percent [+]

InflationRate(/brazil/inflation
cpi/forecast)

10.67

11

InterestRate(/brazil/interest
rate/forecast)

14.25

14.25 14.5 14.5 14.5 10

BalanceofTrade(/brazil/balanceof
trade/forecast)

6240.00 3444 1979 1385 1772 1000 USD

GovernmentDebttoGDP
(/brazil/governmentdebtto
gdp/forecast)

58.91

6.1

(/brazil/unemployment
rate)
11.5 10.9 10.5 3.1

percent [+](/brazil/inflationcpi)
percent [+](/brazil/interest

rate)
[+](/brazil/balanceof

Million trade)

66.95 67.05 67.14 69.38 64.41 percent [+]


(/brazil/government
debttogdp)

Markets

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

Currency
(/brazil/currency/forecast)

4.15

4.05

4.13

4.17

4.21

3.21

StockMarket(/brazil/stock
market/forecast)

37717.11

40800

39700

38700

37600

50200

points

GovernmentBond10Y
(/brazil/governmentbond
yield/forecast)

16.79

16.74

17.23

18.05

18.87

24.62

percent

GDP

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

GDPGrowthRate
1.70
(/brazil/gdpgrowth/forecast)

1.9

1.3

0.1

0.21

percent

GDPAnnualGrowthRate
(/brazil/gdpgrowth
annual/forecast)

4.50

3.6

2.9

1.4

2.7

2.8

percent

GDP(/brazil/gdp/forecast)

2346.12

2282

2264

2250

2244

2221

USD
Billion

GDPConstantPrices
(/brazil/gdpconstant
prices/forecast)

297446.01

GrossNationalProduct
(/brazil/grossnational
product/forecast)

1446839.04

GrossFixedCapital
Formation(/brazil/gross
fixedcapital
formation/forecast)

268429.88

280312

279647

277479

281787

351878

BRL
Million

1456943

1466747

1406839

1396839

1466839

BRL
Million

265010

266430

264001

265430

305565

BRL
Million

GDPpercapita(/brazil/gdp 5969.68
percapita/forecast)

5971

5990

6008

6026

6430

USD

GDPpercapitaPPP
(/brazil/gdppercapita
ppp/forecast)

15412.29

15414

14504

14530

14504

18793

USD

GDPFromAgriculture
(/brazil/gdpfrom
agriculture/forecast)

16964.27

17466

17479

17477

17478

18522

BRL

GDPFromConstruction
(/brazil/gdpfrom
construction/forecast)

17478.99

GDPFromManufacturing
(/brazil/gdpfrom
manufacturing/forecast)

31717.80

28380

29005

30935

30159

33521

GDPFromMining
(/brazil/gdpfrom
mining/forecast)

2576.20

2501

2543

2503

2472

2858

GDPFromPublic
Administration(/brazil/gdp
frompublic
administration/forecast)

40108.42

GDPFromServices
(/brazil/gdpfrom
services/forecast)

178943.56

GDPFromTransport
(/brazil/gdpfrom
transport/forecast)

8732.59

GDPFromUtilities
(/brazil/gdpfrom
utilities/forecast)

5907.21

Labour

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

UnemploymentRate
(/brazil/unemployment
rate/forecast)

7.50

7.9

8.3

8.7

9.1

6.1

percent

EmployedPersons
(/brazil/employed
persons/forecast)

22.53

22.63

22.37

22

22.65

23.59

Million

UnemployedPersons
(/brazil/unemployed
persons/forecast)

1.83

1.91

2.1

1.9

1.7

Million

LaborForceParticipation
Rate(/brazil/laborforce
participationrate/forecast)

55.40

55.67

55.45

55.61

55.59

56.5

percent

LabourCosts(/brazil/labour 104.55
costs/forecast)

103

104

104

104

104

Index

Wages
(/brazil/wages/forecast)

2200.78

2197

2186

2185

2197

2306

BRL/Month

MinimumWages
(/brazil/minimum
wages/forecast)

880.00

880

880

880

880

1280

BRL/Month

Population
202.77
(/brazil/population/forecast)

203

204

204

205

213

Million

RetirementAgeWomen

60

60

60

60

60

Million

17349

16685

16956

17233

18210

BRL
Million

BRL
Million

39093

39892

40342

39882

40676

BRL
Million

173052

174127

174594

177047

208723

BRL
Million

8335

8416

8670

8719

9140

BRL
Million

5770

5793

5869

5811

5737

BRL
Million

60.00

Points

RetirementAgeWomen
(/brazil/retirementage
women/forecast)

60.00

60

60

60

60

60

RetirementAgeMen
(/brazil/retirementage
men/forecast)

65.00

65

65

65

65

65

EmploymentChange
(/brazil/employment
change/forecast)

3.67

3.27

0.58

1.58

1.62

1.16

percent

EmploymentRate
(/brazil/employment
rate/forecast)

51.30

51.65

51.63

51.51

51.54

51.56

percent

NonFarmPayrolls
(/brazil/nonfarm
payrolls/forecast)

596.20

78.13

9.49

9.13

101

20.01

Thousand

Productivity
104.55
(/brazil/productivity/forecast)

103

99

104

105

110

Index

WagesInManufacturing
(/brazil/wagesin
manufacturing/forecast)

114.90

116

Prices

Actual

Points

116

116

117

120

Index
Points

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

InflationRate
10.67
(/brazil/inflationcpi/forecast)

11

11.5

10.9

10.5

3.1

percent

InflationRateMom
(/brazil/inflationrate
mom/forecast)

0.96

0.49

0.38

0.74

0.73

0.72

percent

ConsumerPriceIndexCPI
(/brazil/consumerprice
indexcpi/forecast)

4493.17

4592

4668

4715

4772

5571

Index

CoreInflationRate
(/brazil/coreinflation
rate/forecast)

9.45

9.64

9.7

9.1

9.75

4.5

percent

GDPDeflator(/brazil/gdp
deflator/forecast)

6.90

7.07

6.8

6.53

6.26

6.04

percent

ProducerPrices
(/brazil/producer
prices/forecast)

660.53

668

672

674

675

677

Index

Points

Points

ExportPrices(/brazil/export 116.30
prices/forecast)

117

ImportPrices(/brazil/import 113.97
prices/forecast)

114

FoodInflation(/brazil/food 12.10
inflation/forecast)

10

10.1

9.9

percent

ProducerPricesChange
(/brazil/producerprices
change/forecast)

11.31

11.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

7.35

percent

Money

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

InterestRate(/brazil/interest 14.25
rate/forecast)

14.25

14.5

14.5

14.5

10

percent

CashReserveRatio
(/brazil/cashreserve
ratio/forecast)

45

45

45

45

45

Percent

45.00

117

117

117

125

Index
Points

121

119

118

130

Index
Points

MoneySupplyM0
(/brazil/moneysupply
m0/forecast)

255288.92

MoneySupplyM1
(/brazil/moneysupply
m1/forecast)

333678.82

MoneySupplyM2
(/brazil/moneysupply
m2/forecast)

2213853.25

MoneySupplyM3
(/brazil/moneysupply
m3/forecast)

4649847.67

BanksBalanceSheet
(/brazil/banksbalance
sheet/forecast)

5517804.51

271291

292171

312860

333516

747497

BRL
Million

335557

355535

376359

398083

922258

BRL
Million

2256472

2311522

2369216

2429073

3600620

BRL
Million

4864586

5019751

5178993

5342544

8719548

BRL
Million

6438738

6724428

7030947

7360091

17999072

BRL
Million

ForeignExchangeReserves 356464.00
(/brazil/foreignexchange
reserves/forecast)

352602

LoanstoPrivateSector
(/brazil/loanstoprivate
sector/forecast)

863441.00

892484

DepositInterestRate
(/brazil/depositinterest
rate/forecast)

10.02

351112

349975

349483

548788

USD
Million

845854

837302

838660

1277070

BRL
Million

10.09

9.71

9.33

9.33

8.25

percent

CentralBankBalanceSheet 2767020852.00 3010586947 3167529990 3321672084 3474975459 5653036618 BRL


(/brazil/centralbank
Thousand
balancesheet/forecast)
LoanGrowth(/brazil/loan
growth/forecast)

0.60

0.16

0.26

0.26

0.61

0.6

Trade

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

BalanceofTrade
(/brazil/balanceof
trade/forecast)

6240.00

3444

1979

1385

1772

1000

Exports
(/brazil/exports/forecast)

16783.00

Imports
(/brazil/imports/forecast)

10543.00

CurrentAccount
(/brazil/current
account/forecast)

2931.00

CurrentAccounttoGDP
(/brazil/currentaccountto
gdp/forecast)

4.17

4.26

4.12

3.97

3.82

4.64

percent

ExternalDebt
(/brazil/external
debt/forecast)

340583.03

339720

341645

358953

367149

433825

USD

TermsofTrade
(/brazil/termsof
trade/forecast)

102.06

USD
Million

17349

14147

14279

14800

16000

USD
Million

11035

12169

12794

13028

17000

USD
Million

3718

3249

3502

2859

5112

USD
Million

Million

102

102

102

102

102

Index
Points

CapitalFlows(/brazil/capital 2847.40

4613

5003

5160

5234

5294

flows/forecast)
ForeignDirectInvestment

percent

USD
Million

4930.00

5772

6213

6105

5740

7005

USD

ForeignDirectInvestment
(/brazil/foreigndirect
investment/forecast)

4930.00

5772

6213

6105

5740

7005

USD
Million

Remittances
1909.90
(/brazil/remittances/forecast)

2523

GoldReserves(/brazil/gold 67.20
reserves/forecast)

67.2

67.2

67.2

67.2

67.2

Tonnes

CrudeOilProduction
(/brazil/crudeoil
production/forecast)

2396.00

2229

2229

2401

2401

2401

BBL/D/1K

TerrorismIndex
(/brazil/terrorism
index/forecast)

2.21

1.39

1.23

1.07

1.07

1.28

TouristArrivals
(/brazil/tourist
arrivals/forecast)

5813.00

5814

5819

5824

5828

5807

Government

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

GovernmentDebttoGDP
58.91
(/brazil/governmentdebtto
gdp/forecast)

66.95

67.05

67.14

69.38

64.41

percent

GovernmentBudget
(/brazil/government
budget/forecast)

2.5

2.5

2.5

0.71

0.72

percentof

0.60

2528

2532

2537

3501

USD
Million

Thousand

GDP

GovernmentBudgetValue
43057.00
(/brazil/governmentbudget
value/forecast)

50148

GovernmentSpending
(/brazil/government
spending/forecast)

95633.23

92126

GovernmentRevenues
(/brazil/government
revenues/forecast)

121500.00

CreditRating
(/brazil/rating/forecast)

34.92

Business

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

BusinessConfidence
(/brazil/business
confidence/forecast)

36.50

38

37.5

49.44

39.44

50.21

ManufacturingPMI
(/brazil/manufacturing
pmi/forecast)

45.60

43.1

45.8

47.3

49.8

53

ServicesPMI
(/brazil/services
pmi/forecast)

43.50

41.3

43.5

45.4

47.8

52.7

CompositePmi
(/brazil/composite
pmi/forecast)

43.90

42.81

51.98

52.1

50.1

53.63

Index

IndustrialProduction
(/brazil/industrial
production/forecast)

12.40

11.24

8.41

7.95

6.71

2.53

percent

IndustrialProductionMom

2.40

0.3

0.12

0.1

0.15

0.15

percent

(/brazil/industrial
productionmom/forecast)

48194

48352

48648

48883

BRL
Million

92304

92332

92336

92337

BRL
Million

108400

110411

108890

108031

106726

BRL
Million

Index
Points

productionmom/forecast)
ManufacturingProduction
(/brazil/manufacturing
production/forecast)

12.50

2.84

1.14

1.14

1.4

2.2

percent

CapacityUtilization
(/brazil/capacity
utilization/forecast)

77.00

76.82

76.79

76.79

76.79

76.79

percent

ChangesinInventories
(/brazil/changesin
inventories/forecast)

5366.16

7020

1020

2153

1140

7141

BRL

CarProduction(/brazil/car
production/forecast)

142880.00

182915

184593

183011

191886

185997

Units

CarRegistrations
(/brazil/car
registrations/forecast)

228.00

196

200

216

216

216

Thousand

TotalVehicleSales
(/brazil/totalvehicle
sales/forecast)

165986.00

165517

165860

160860

159940

175925

LeadingEconomicIndex
(/brazil/leadingeconomic
index/forecast)

137.37

137

137

138

137

150

SmallBusinessSentiment
(/brazil/smallbusiness
sentiment/forecast)

36.90

37.29

37.16

37.1

37.08

37.07

CompetitivenessIndex
(/brazil/competitiveness
index/forecast)

4.08

4.08

4.08

4.08

4.27

4.16

CompetitivenessRank
(/brazil/competitiveness
rank/forecast)

75.00

75

75

75

69.68

23.3

CorruptionIndex
(/brazil/corruption
index/forecast)

43.00

40

40

40

40

48

CorruptionRank
(/brazil/corruption
rank/forecast)

69.00

71

71

71

71

65

EaseofDoingBusiness
(/brazil/easeofdoing
business/forecast)

116.00

120

120

120

115

115

MiningProduction
(/brazil/mining
production/forecast)

1.00

1.2

0.1

0.5

3.84

4.2

Consumer

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

ConsumerConfidence
(/brazil/consumer
confidence/forecast)

96.30

96.18

96.35

97.05

96.5

99

RetailSalesMoM
1.50
(/brazil/retailsales/forecast)

0.08

0.49

1.27

0.05

0.05

percent

RetailSalesYoY
(/brazil/retailsales
annual/forecast)

7.80

0.6

0.13

2.13

7.33

percent

ConsumerSpending
(/brazil/consumer

937194.67

842390

872390

1000560

837195

957195

BRL

Million

Index
Points

Points

Points

percent

Million

(/brazil/consumer
spending/forecast)

Million

ConsumerCredit
(/brazil/consumer
credit/forecast)

1500513.00

PrivateSectorCredit
(/brazil/privatesector
credit/forecast)

2922447.00

BankLendingRate
(/brazil/banklending
rate/forecast)

64.75

58.46

65.46

68.03

68.64

52.43

percent

GasolinePrices
(/brazil/gasoline
prices/forecast)

0.92

0.86

0.85

0.83

0.82

0.78

USD/Liter

Housing

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

HomeOwnershipRate
(/brazil/homeownership
rate/forecast)

73.49

73.49

73.49

73.49

73.49

73.49

Taxes

Actual

Q1/16

Q2/16

Q3/16

Q4/16

2020

CorporateTaxRate
(/brazil/corporatetax
rate/forecast)

34.00

34

34

34

34

34

percent

PersonalIncomeTaxRate
27.50
(/brazil/personalincometax
rate/forecast)

27.5

27.5

27.5

27.5

27.5

percent

SalesTaxRate(/brazil/sales 19.00
taxrate/forecast)

19

19

19

19

19

percent

SocialSecurityRate
(/brazil/socialsecurity
rate/forecast)

39.80

39.8

39.8

39.8

39.8

39.8

percent

SocialSecurityRateFor
Companies(/brazil/social
securityratefor
companies/forecast)

28.80

28.8

28.8

28.8

28.8

28.8

percent

SocialSecurityRateFor
Employees(/brazil/social
securityratefor
employees/forecast)

11.00

11

11

11

11

11

percent

Countries(/countries)

1555457

1596059

1636290

1676154

2266605

BRL
Million

2982026

3024633

3067609

3110311

3732078

BRL
Million

Indicators(/indicators)

Calendar(/calendar)

Markets(/currencies)

ExportData(http://www.tradingeconomics.com/analytics/plans.aspx?source=table)
APIDownload(http://www.tradingeconomics.com/analytics/api.aspx?source=table)

Related
BrazilHoldsKeyRateat14.25%(/brazil/interestrate)
BrazilInflationRateEdgesUpto10.67%(/brazil/inflationcpi)

Forecasts(/forecasts)

percent

BrazilTradeSurplusHitRecordHigh(/brazil/balanceoftrade)
BrazilUnemploymentRateUnexpectedlyFallsto7.5%(/brazil/unemploymentrate)
BrazilInflationRateHitsDoubleDigits(/articles/12092015112542.htm)
BrazilTradeSurplusNarrowsto6MonthLow(/articles/12012015174656.htm)
BrazilGDPContractsfor6thStraightQuarter(/brazil/gdpgrowthannual)
BrazilianEconomyContracts1.7%(/brazil/gdpgrowth)
BrazilLeavesSELICRateSteadyat14.25%(/articles/11252015220223.htm)
BrazilUnemploymentRateUpto7.9%(/articles/11192015114325.htm)
BrazilInflationRateAcceleratesto12YearHigh(/articles/11062015113524.htm)
BrazilTradeSurplusBeatsExpectations(/articles/11032015174349.htm)
BrazilUnemploymentRateBelowExpectations(/articles/10222015122150.htm)
BrazilLeavesKeyRateSteadyat14.25%(/articles/10212015235250.htm)
BrazilInflationRateSlowsSlightlyto3MonthLow(/articles/10072015132504.htm)
BrazilTradeSurplusat3MonthHigh(/articles/10012015192426.htm)
BrazilUnemploymentRateHighestSinceMarch2010(/articles/09242015131615.htm)
BrazilInflationRateEasesSlightlyinAugust(/articles/09102015131242.htm)
BrazilHoldsSELICRateat14.25%inSeptember(/articles/09032015002513.htm)
BrazilTradeSurplusWidensinAugust(/articles/09012015192616.htm)
+ (news)

Latest
USJoblessClaimsRiseto6MonthHigh(/unitedstates/joblessclaims)
ECBLeavesRatesUnchanged(/euroarea/interestrate)
MalaysiaLeavesKeyRateat3.25%,CutsRRR(/malaysia/interestrate)
SpainTradeGapWidens19%inNovember(/spain/balanceoftrade)
HongKongInflationRateEdgesUpto2.5%(/hongkong/inflationcpi)
BrazilHoldsKeyRateat14.25%(/brazil/interestrate)
KenyaHoldsKeyRateat11.5%(/kenya/interestrate)
BoCHoldsKeyRateat0.5%(/canada/interestrate)
USHousingStartsUnexpectedlyFallinDecember(/unitedstates/housingstarts)
USInflationRateat12MonthHigh(/unitedstates/inflationcpi)
UKUnemploymentRateatNear10YearLow(/unitedkingdom/unemploymentrate)
SouthAfricaInflationRateat12MonthHigh(/southafrica/inflationcpi)
MalaysiaInflationRateat4MonthHigh(/malaysia/inflationcpi)
NewZealandInflationRateLowestSince1999(/newzealand/inflationcpi)
BoESignalsRatesLikelytoRemainatRecordLow(/unitedkingdom/interestrate)
TurkeyLeavesRatesUnchangedfor11thStraightMonth(/turkey/interestrate)
ChineseQuarterlyGDPGrowthSlowsinQ4(/china/gdpgrowth)
EuroAreaInflationRateConfirmedat0.2%(/euroarea/inflationcpi)
UKInflationRateat11MonthHigh(/unitedkingdom/inflationcpi)
HongKongUnemploymentRateUnchangedat3.3%(/hongkong/unemploymentrate)
+ (../countrylist/news)

Economic Forecasts for Brazil including a longterm outlook for the next decades, plus mediumterm
expectationsforthenextfourquartersandshorttermmarketpredictionsforthenextreleaseaffectingthe
Brazileconomy.1/22/2016

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(/brazil/calendar)Forecast
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