7/14/2016

WhydidBritainvotetoleavetheEU?Vox

WhydidBritainvotetoleavethe
EU?
UpdatedbyTimothyB.LeeonJune25,2016,12:10p.m.ET

tim@vox.com

OnThursday,theBritishpeoplevotedtoleavetheEuropean
Unionbya52to48percentmargin,adecisionthathasbeen
dubbed"Brexit."(
http://www.vox.com/world/2016/6/20/11977012/brexitpollvote
referendumuknews)Itwasasurprisingresultthatwillhave
hugeconsequencesforBritain,theEU,andtheglobal
economy.
SowhydidBritainvotetoleavetheEU?Herearesomeofthe
mostimportantreasons.

The euro disaster has made Brits more skeptical of the

EU

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Photo Illustration by MIlos Bicanski/Getty Images

Britishpoliticshasalwaysincludedafactionthat'sskepticalof
deeperintegrationwiththerestofEurope.Thisfactionhas
grownstrongerinrecentyearsastheEUhasstruggledwiththe
aftermathofthe2008financialcrisis.
BritainjoinedtheEuropeanEconomicCommunityin1973and
hencetheEUinthe1990s.ButBritainneverfullyacceptedthe
legitimacyofEuropeancontroloverBritishinstitutionsinaway
thatotherEUmembersdid.Itrefused,forexample,tojoineither
theSchengenArea,whicheliminatesinternalbordercontrols,or
thecommoncurrency.
Since2008,Britain'sbackgroundeuroskepticismhasbeen
amplifiedbythepoorperformanceofEuropeaneconomies.
Thepost2008recessionwasbadintheUnitedStates,butit
wasreallybadintheeuroarea.Theeurozonetookagreaterhit
thantheUSdidinitially,andthenquicklycollapsedbackinto
recessionratherthanexperiencingacontinuedrecovery:

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Thereareanumberofreasonswhythisistrue,including
severalEUnations'embraceofausterity.Butoneofthebiggest,
ifnotthebiggest,causewastheeuroitself.
Centralbanksaresupposedtoreacttorecessionsby
expandingthemoneysupplyinordertopromoteeconomic
activity.The2008financialcrisiscaughtcentralbanksflatfooted
bothintheUnitedStatesandEurope.ButAmerica'scentral
bank,theFederalReserve,ultimatelyrespondedforcefullyto
theeconomicdownturn,helpingtogettheeconomygrowing
againstartingin2010.
Incontrast,theECBdecidedtoraiseinterestratesa
contractionarypolicyin2011.Theresult:WhiletheUS
economystartedtoheal,theeurozonetippedintoadoubledip
recession.Thingsgotsobad,particularlyinGreece,thatit
lookedliketheentireeurozonesystemcouldcollapse.
Thisdidn'taffecttheUKdirectly,asitusesthepoundrather
thantheeuro.ButsomeBritonslookedatthesituationand
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decidedthatEUmembershipwasdangerous.TheEUhad
historicallyonlyexpandeditspowers,theyworried.Howlong
untilBritaingotropedintoaeurolikedisasterorfaced
pressuretobailoutcountrieswhoseeconomieswerewrecked
bybadeurozoneeconomicpolicies?
ThisargumentgavenewpotencytoBritain'slongsimmering
euroskepticism.Bymid2012,afterthreeyearsoftheeurozone
crisiswithnorealendinsight,PrimeMinisterDavidCameron
wasundersignificantpressurefrommembersofhisown
ConservativePartytoholdareferendumonwhethertheUK
shouldstayin.In2013,Camerongaveaspeech(
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jan/23/davidcameron
euspeechreferendum)promisingtoholdjustsucha
referendumiftheTorieswonBritain's2015election.

Advocates argued that Britain would be better outside

the EU

Photo by Mary Turner/Getty Images

UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage was a key Brexit supporter.

ThetwomostcommonargumentsinfavorofBrexitfocusedon
theEU'sliberalrulesforinternalmigrationandtheEU's
burdensomeeconomicregulations.
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BorisJohnson,aConservativewhowasthenmayorofLondon,
wroteatypicalcaseforBrexit(
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/03/16/borisjohnson
exclusivethereisonlyonewaytogetthechange/)backin
February,focusingontheincreasingconcentrationofpowerin
thehandsofunelectedEUbureaucratsinBrussels:
ThemoretheEUdoes,thelessroomthereisfornational
decisionmaking.SometimestheseEUrulessoundsimply
ludicrous,liketherulethatyoucan'trecycleateabag,or
thatchildrenundereightcannotblowupballoons,orthe
limitsonthepowerofvacuumcleaners.Sometimesthey
canbetrulyinfuriatinglikethetimeIdiscovered,in2013,
thattherewasnothingwecoulddotobringinbetter
designedcabwindowsfortrucks,tostopcyclistsbeing
crushed.IthadtobedoneataEuropeanlevel,andthe
Frenchwereopposed.
Onthisview,theEUisn'tjusttoomeddlesome,it'salso
undemocraticandunaccountabletothepublic.
"Theissueofsovereigntyofwhogovernsyou,isthemost
importantquestionforanycountry,"BritishjournalistDouglas
Murraytoldmeinaninterviewlastweek.Aftertwodecadesin
whichsignificantpowerresidedinBrussels,Murraywantsto
returnfullauthoritytothepeoples'electedrepresentativesinthe
BritishParliament.
Whileargumentsabouteconomicregulationandpolitical
sovereigntydominatetheintellectualcaseforBrexit,thepolitical
appealofBrexitreliesheavilyontheemotionallychargedissue
ofimmigration.
BritainrefusedtoparticipateintheSchengenagreementand
fullydismantlebordercontrolswithotherEUcountries.ButEU
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lawstillrequiresmemberstoadmitanunlimitednumberof
migrantsfromotherEUcountries.Withtheeurozonesuffering
fromdismaleconomicperformance,alotofworkersfromless
affluentEUstateslikePolandandPortugalhavemovedtothe
UKinsearchofwork.There'slittleBritain'selectedofficialscan
dotostemtheseflows,andthatrubsalotofBritishvotersthe
wrongway.
OneofthemostprominentcriticsoftheEU'simmigrationrules
wasNigelFarage(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage),
leaderofthefarrightUKIndependenceParty.Hearguedthat
largescalemigrationoflowwageworkersfromelsewherein
EuropehasdepressedwagesfornativebornBritons.Farage
alsosuggested(
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/04/nigelfarage
migrantscouldposesexattackthreattobritain/)that
unrestrictedimmigrationfromEuropecouldleadtogreater
competitionforgovernmentservicesandevenputBritish
womenatgreaterriskofsexualviolence.
FarageisanextremeexamplesomethinglikethePat
BuchananoftheUnitedKingdom.ButliketheUS,Britainis
currentlyexperiencinganupsurgeofnativistsentiments,and
theseattitudesareprovidingaboostforthecampaigntoleave
theEU.

Support for Brexit was strongest among older and less

educated voters
Wedonthavereliableexitpolls,butpollsconductedthedayof
thereferendumdogiveussomeideaofhowthevotebroke

down.TheBrexitvotepittedyoungagainstold,urbanagainst
rural,andmoreeducatedagainstlesseducated.
Accordingtoonepoll(http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine
36619342),73percentofvotersbetweenage18and24voted

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tostayintheEU,comparedtojust40percentofvotersover
age65.UnfortunatelyfortheRemaincampaign,oldervoters
turnedoutingreaternumbers(
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/youngremain
voterscameoutinforcebutwereoutgunned?CMP=twt_gu).
SoeventhoughyoungerpeopleweremoreproEUthanolder
peoplewereantiEU,theoldervoterscarriedtheday.
AndasthischartfromtheGuardianshows,bettereducated
votersweremorelikelytovotetoremain(
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12026742/brexitcollege
educatedbritsstay)intheEU:

GuardianData
@GuardianData

Follow

EUreferendumresults:everyareabykeydemographics
theguardian.com/politics/ngin

8:42PM24Jun2016

265

159

Asyoucansee,votingareaswithmorecollegeeducated
peopleweremorelikelytovotetoremainintheEU.The
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WhydidBritainvotetoleavetheEU?Vox

correlationwitheducationwasevenstrongerthanthe
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correlationwithageorincome.

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