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Fundamental of Energy Systems II

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Constraints:

Integration Demand - Supply

Physical:

• Matching form value • Matching spatial scales • Matching temporal scales

Societal - Availability of:

• Capital • Information • Incentives • Policy attention

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Constraints

• Matching “form value”: need (and limits) of conversion (e.g. radiantmechanical energy)

• Spatial mismatch supply-demand: World trade in fuels >1000 Billion $ (2003 data);

• Temporal mismatch supply-demand (load curves): Need for storage & interconnection (capital intensive)

• Magnitude mismatch supply-demand: Power densities, e.g. renewables vs. urban energy use

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Constraints I: Space

• Fossil fuels: Deposits determined by nature

• Extremely uneven distribution of reserves: Oil<Coal<Gas

• Transport costly:

Electricity<LNG<Gas<Coal<Oil

• Inventory (storage) minimization increases vulnerability (only 90 days oil use in strategic reserves)

• Renewables: Land availability as major spatial constraint

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

World Oil Trade 2008 (BP, 2009)

World Oil Trade 2008 (BP, 2009) Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Analysis http://www.bp.com/centres/energy2002/gas/trademovement.asp# Arnulf Grubler
Energy Systems Analysis
http://www.bp.com/centres/energy2002/gas/trademovement.asp#
Arnulf Grubler
US – Gas Pipeline Transport Flows Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
US – Gas Pipeline Transport Flows
Energy Systems Analysis
Arnulf Grubler

World Oil Trade in 2004 (net trade of crude and oil products)

 

Million Tons

Billion US$

USA

-590.8

-165.3

Europe

-524.0

-147.1

Japan

-254.0

-42.0

China

-149.7

-40.1

Other importers

-862.2

-242.1

     

Middle East

959.7

269.4

Africa

319.7

89.8

Ex-USSR

314.3

88.2

Latin America

197.7

55.5

Other exporters

589.3

165.4

     

World Trade

2380.7

668.4

Source: BP Statistical Review of World energy 2005

How Much Do Fuels Costs the World?

• The power of “back-of-the envelope” calculations

• World crude oil trade:

2.6 10 9 tons*

1000

10 9 $*

• World oil use:

3.8

Gtoe

• World energy use:

10

Gtoe

• World GDP:

~45

10 12 $*

• Rough (upper) estimate is:

?

* 2005 data from BP Stat. Review 2006 and IMF 2006

using (high) oil prices: <10%; using avg. energy costs and long-term average oil prices: 3-5% of GWP

Energy Constraints II: Time

Why Electricity Load Curves Matter

Electricity can’t be stored at reasonable costs; storage of other energy forms also costly

Therefore: Electricity must be generated whenever demand arises

Therefore: Need enough installed generation capacity to meet peak demand (plus reserve margin), even though system peaks very rarely (few hrs/yr)

Result: Some plants run only a few hours per year (economics! efficiency!)

Peak load versus average load: Times 3

Reserve margin: 10-30% of peak load

Fractality: Daily, weekly, monthly, yearly load curves

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

MWMW Electricity

Electricity Demand

Demand US

US PGE

PGE

PG&E 2003 Representative Load Curves

16000 Frid ay Sullivan, 2009 S unday Mond ay Tuesday We dnesday Thu rsday Saturd ay
16000
Frid ay
Sullivan, 2009
S unday
Mond ay
Tuesday
We dnesday Thu rsday
Saturd ay
Load (MW)
10000
12000
14000
Fall
18000
20000
Spring
Summer
6000
4000
8000
0
2000
Winter

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Duration Curve (20% Peak load) 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 Load (MW) PG&E 2003 of
Duration Curve
(20%
Peak
load)
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
Load (MW)
PG&E 2003
of load)
Load Duration
2003 Load
US PG&E
Curve
US
4000 5000
2000 3000
6000 7000
0 1000
8000
Base
1515--18%
0
8000
6000
4000
2000
Requirement
Reserve Margin
Margin Requirement
Medium
18% Reserve
Load
Load
Base Load
Medium Load
capacity meets
Peak Capacity
meets 1%1% of
of capacity
Capacity
(20% of

Hours

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Spinning

Spinning Reserve

Reserve Requirement

Requirement

variation inin load. moment’’ss notice notice toto meet meet variation must bebe able system must able
variation inin load.
moment’’ss notice
notice toto meet
meet variation
must bebe able
system must
able toto ramp
The system
ramp upup or
moment
down at
or down
load.
The
at aa
AM 8:30:00 3:15:00 3:15:00 9:15:00 5:30:00 5:30:00 7:00:00 7:45:00 7:00:00 9:15:00 7:45:00 1:00:00 1:45:00 1:45:00 AM
AM
8:30:00
3:15:00
3:15:00
9:15:00
5:30:00
5:30:00
7:00:00
7:45:00
7:00:00
9:15:00
7:45:00
1:00:00
1:45:00
1:45:00
AM
6:15:00
AM
AM
AM
AM
AM
PM
AM
PM
PM
PM
PM
PM
PM
PM
AM 8:30:00 AM
Reg. UP
AGC Signal
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
MW
PM
AM 4:00:00 AM
PM 4:00:00 PM
AM 2:30:00 AM
Reg. Down
PM 2:30:00 PM
AM 1:00:00 AM
12:15:00
10:00:00
11:30:00
12:15:00
10:45:00
10:00:00
11:30:00
10:45:00
4:45:00
4:45:00
PM PM PM
6:15:00

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Daily Load Curves: Tokyo

Daily Load Curves: Tokyo Source: Mogouro et al., 2002 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Source: Mogouro et al., 2002

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Analysis
Energy Systems Analysis

Linking Space and Time in Tokyo:

Power Density of Demand

Source: Mouguro et al., 2002

Arnulf Grubler

Tokyo – Electricity Demand

kWh

vs. Solar Energy Supply

10 100 1000 100000 10000 1
10
100
1000
100000
10000
1
Electricity demand
Electricity demand
Solar radiation
Solar radiation
converted to electricity Solar radiation
converted to electricity
Solar radiation

km 2

0

1000

2000

3000

Source: TEPCO & NIES, 2002

Spatial Power Densities of Energy Production and Consumption

Cities Source: Adapted from Smil 1991:243 Hydro Photosynthesis Photosynthesis Coal fields Oil fields Thermal power plants
Cities
Source: Adapted from Smil 1991:243
Hydro
Photosynthesis
Photosynthesis
Coal fields
Oil fields
Thermal
power
plants
Steel mills,
Industry
refineries
Central
Tidal
solar
towers
High-rises
Supermarkets
Houses
Flat plate collectors
Photovoltaics Photovoltaics
Photovoltaics
Wind

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Power Densities II

• Spatial mismatch between demand and

supply requires imports

(domestic+international)

• >80% of world energy use in urban high

demand density areas

• Power density mismatch biggest for

renewables (except large hydro)

• Hence: Renewables best suited for

niche markets: low population/energy

density areas (rural),

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Systems Analysis
Arnulf Grubler

Orders of Magnitude:

1 W/m 2

upper energy yield of biomass/wind

~10 kWh/m 2 resulting annual energy yield

~30 MJ/m 2 ~300 GJ/ha ~10,000 liters/ha liquid fuel with 100% conversion efficiency ~1,000 gal/acre (for the non-metric inclined)

~10 toe/ha tons oil equivalent yield (max. yield, no losses!) ~3 toe/ha realistic yield incl. conversion losses

US transport energy use: ~600 Mtoe =

200 million ha = ~100% of all cropland

World energy use (PE): ~10 Gtoe =

3000 million ha = 200% of cropland area,

or 75% of forests

Choice of Energy Systems and Technologies

• Need to satisfy first all energy systems

constraints

• Need to satisfy demand for energy

services rather than fuels

• Economics not all (invisible costs,

convenience, social visibility, etc.)

Choices available inverse of scale

(family home, plant, vs. planet)

• Analysis needs large system

boundaries

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Environmental Constraints

• Local air quality (human health impacts)

• Regional/transboundary air pollution

• Climate change

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

PM10 Exposures in 3200 Cities Source: C. Doll, 2009, based on World Bank data Exposure: PM
PM10 Exposures in 3200 Cities
Source: C. Doll, 2009, based on World Bank data
Exposure: PM 10 concentration*City population (capita.µg/m 3 )
Size of circle indicates exposure (Quintiles)
Color of circle indicates underlying PM 10 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) range: 7-358 µg/m 3
Energy Systems Analysis
Arnulf Grubler

Air Pollution in 3200 Cities with 2 Billion People and WHO PM-10 non-/attainment Status

Source: C. Doll, 2009, based on World Bank data

Air Pollution in 3200 Cities with 2 Billion People and WHO PM-10 non-/attainment Status Source: C.

Energy Systems Analysis

Only 160 Million breathing clean air.

More than 1 billion need improved urban air quality.

740 Million above minimum WHO air quality standard.

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Analysis
Energy Systems Analysis

Sulfur

Deposition

(gS/m 2 )

Europe, ca. 1990

China,

A2 Projection for 2020

Arnulf Grubler

Updated Climate Impacts Synthesis

Updated Climate Impacts Synthesis IPCC TAR 2001 Smith et al., PNAS Feb.26, 2009 target EU Energy

IPCC TAR 2001

Smith et al., PNAS Feb.26, 2009 target EU
Smith et al., PNAS Feb.26, 2009
target
EU

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Source: Meinshausen & Hare, 2008

Source: Meinshausen & Hare, 2008
Source: Meinshausen & Hare, 2008

Climate targets (e.g. EU 2ºC) can only be formulated in probabilistic terms!

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler