The scourge continues in the 21st century....

Year

Location

Mag, Dp
Max Int

Macro-seismic

Deaths

Injured

2003

Bam, Iran

6.6 (VII

Strong Ground
Shaking

>26K

>30K

2004

Indian
Ocean

9.1, 29km, Tsunami

>230K

>125K

1.7M homeless

Kashmir,
Pakistan

7.6, 30km, Landslides

>86K

>106K

>32K buildings
collapsed

2007

Pisco, Peru

8.0, 10k

Tsunami

~0.5K

1366

35.5K buildings
destroyed

2008

Sichuan,
China

8.0

Landslide

>70K

>374K

4.3M homeless

2010

PaP, Haiti

7.0, 10km, Strong Ground

(VII)
Shaking

>230K

>20K

>100K homeless

2010

Concepcion
Chile

8.8

1655

Many

>200K houses
damaged

2005

Homeless/
Damage

(IX)

(VIII)

Tsunami

Earthquake Hazard and Return Period

Large earthquakes are rear events, even in the
most exposed Caribbean region.

When they occur they can inflict huge damage
and losses.

Damage potential generally increases with return
period which can be up to hundreds of years for
most countries in the Caribbean.

This is markedly different from other
environmental loads such as flood and wind for
which the most extreme events occur within
human memory.

WHATS DIFFERENT ABOUT EARTHQUAKES?

Earthquakes occur rarely, making them a harder sell for risk-reduction
measures than more frequent disasters.

Destruction of roads (by landslides), bridges, and other infrastructure
makes access and communication difficult.

The effects are concentrated, compared with those of other natural
disasters.

Aftershocks may disrupt operations, pose a threat to staff, and may cause
further damage after the first earthquake.

High mortality - collapsing buildings may kill large numbers of people (30%
or more of the population of the affected area).

Morbidity - high levels of fractures and crush injuries, although low risk of
epidemics.

Earthquakes create large amounts of rubble, which needs to be cleared
before reconstruction can start.
.

Caribbean Earthquake Statistics

INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION 1530 - 1900
Region

Intensity
X

IX

VIII

VII

VI

Cuba

10

Jamaica

11

Haiti

Dom. Rep

Puerto Rico

Virgin Is.

Lesser Ant.,
North

Lesser Ant.,
Central

Lesser Ant.,
South

Barbados

Trinidad

Expected Frequency of
Earthquakes (last 100 yrs)
Mag.
(Mw)

Carib.
Only

Carib &
Atlantic

6.0

1/yr

2/yr

6.5

1/3 yrs

1/yr

7.0

1/5
yrs ?

1/3
Yrs ?

7.5

1/8
yrs ??

1/6
Yrs ??

8.0

1/50
1/15
yrs ??? Yrs ???

*Taken from C. McCreery, ICG-C, 2006

Caribbean Fatalities from Earthquakes and Tsunamis (1500 2000)

1000

30

Total Deaths 16,500

100

20

10

10

0
1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

Destructive Tsunamis and some Fatalities (1500-1999)

40

300

Total Deaths 360, 20 events

30

200
20
100

10
0

0
1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

Pop.(Mil)

40

Pop. (Mil)

No. Killed

Earthquake Fatalities (1600-1999)

10000

Degrees West

Degrees North
D

-85

-83

-81

-79

-77

-75

-73

-71

-69

-67

-65

-63

-61

-59

-57

24

24

22

22

20

20

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8
-85

-83

-81

-79

-77

-75

-73

-71

-69

-67

-65

-63

Historical Seismicity of the Caribbean

-61

-59

-57

Caribbean earthquakes 1 Historical 1530-1964

Longitude

-85 W
25 N

-80 W

-75 W

-70 W

-65 W

-60 W

25 N

20 N

15 N

15 N

10 N

10 N

Latitude

20 N

-85 W

-80 W

-75 W

-70 W

-65 W

-60 W

Caribbean Earthquakes: Since 1964

Longitude

-85 W
25 N

-80 W

-75 W

-70 W

-65 W

-60 W

25 N

20 N

15 N

15 N

10 N

10 N

Latitude

20 N

-85 W

-80 W

-75 W

-70 W

-65 W

-60 W

Seismotectonic Map of the Caribbean

Regional GPS Field and CA Frame

Source: DeMets et al., 2000; Mann et al., 2002

TRINIDAD and TOBAGO Damaging Earthquakes

10000

Felt at/above MMI VI

Chronology, Population Size and Intensity

7.8 (IX)
1766

1000
5

Population in Thousands

100
3

7.4 (VI)
2007 2

7.3 (VIII)
1918

10

6.7 (VIII)
1997

7 (VII)
1888
6.6 (VIII)
1825
1
1715

6.3 (VIII)
1954
0

1765

1815

1865

1915

1965

2015

Seismic Energy

Released Energy vs. Epi-central Distance (Trinidad)

3.50E+23
1766 (7.8)
IX
3.00E+23

Released Energy / J

2.50E+23

2.00E+23

1.50E+23

2007 (7.4)
VI

1.00E+23

1918 (7.3)
VIII

2006 (6.3)
VI

5.00E+22

1954 (6.3)
VIII

1997 (6.7)
VIII

1888 (7.0)
VI

1.00E+00
5

10

20

40
80
Epicentral Distance / km

160

320

Intensity Map for 1766 S.E. Caribbean

Earthquake

GRENADA Damaging Earthquakes

2

Felt at/above MMI VI

Chronology, Population Size and Intensity

7.4 (VI)
2007

1.8

100
1.6

1.2
7 (VII)
1888

10
0.8
6.6 (VI)
6.4 (VI)
1831 '34, '44, '46

6.3 (VI)
1954

6.2 (VI)
1822

0.6

0.4

0.2

1
1715

0
1765

1815

1865

1915

1965

2015

Seismic Energy

Population in Thousands

1.4

Distribution of the large felt

Earthquakes of Grenada

The event of 10/01/1888 was assigned magnitude 7.5 and depth of 150
km by Dorel. However, a lower magnitude (7.0) at shallower depth 70-100
km is more consistent with the intensity pattern.

7.00E+23

Released Energy vs. Epicentral Distance (St. Lucia)

1843 (8.0)
VII

6.00E+23

Released Energy / J

5.00E+23

4.00E+23

1839 (7.8)
VIII

3.00E+23

2.00E+23

1.00E+23

1953 (7)
VII

1906 (7.0)
VIII
1844 (6.8)
VI
1982(4.6)
*VI
1940 (6.6)
VI

2007 (7.4)
VII

* Six people injured jumping

from a building.

1946 (6.2)
VII

0.00E+00
20

70

120

170
Epicentral Distance / km

220

270

320

160

2.00

Event Chronology for Intensity VI St. Vincent

1.80
140
1.60

1.40
100
1.20

80

1.00

0.80
60
0.60
40
0.40
20
0.20

0
1700

0.00
1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

Seismic Energy

Population in Thousands

120

Relationship between Magnitude, Intensity and

Hypocentral Distance

Relationship between Magnitude, Intensity and

Hypocentral Distance

Earthquake Damage in the Eastern Caribbean

Antigua Earthquake 1974

Earthquake Damage in the Eastern Caribbean

Antigua Earthquake 1974

Ground Settlement - Deep Water Harbour, St. John's, Antigua.

Development in and around St

Georges, Grenada 1951-Present

Development in and around Castries,

St. Lucia 1951-Present

Development in and around

Basseterre, St. Kitts 1951-Present

Vulnerable Practices (St Vincent)

Residential building
Beach resort
Public school

RISK F(NH, V)

RISK
MANAGEMENT

Underlying Risk Sources

Uncontrollable

Natural Hazards

Severe
Natural
Event

Controllable

Vulnerability

Resilience of
Environment

Presence of
Human
Settlement

Fragility to
Natural
Hazards

Environmental Degradation

Information gathered from Seismic Monitoring are Key

ingredient for activities in an Earthquake Risk Reduction
Program

Mitigation
Structures

Preparedness
People

Retrofitting

Human Capital

Retrofitting of
Lifelines & Critical
Infrastructure

Earthquake Awareness
Individual preparedness

Regulation/Risk Transfer
Land Use Management
Building Codes
Insurance

Emergency
management systems

Resources
Coordination
Communications
Search & Rescue

Plans
Disaster Response
Stand alone
Supporting plans

Building Code
1. A building code is the minimum acceptable standard used to regulate the
design, construction, and maintenance of buildings for the purpose of
protecting the health, safety, and general welfare of the buildings users.
2. The purpose of building codes is to build safe buildings, thereby reducing
deaths, injuries and property damage. This preserves the built
environment, both residential and commercial; reduces public and
private disaster aid, and maintains employment in businesses and
institutions that otherwise might be forced to close following a
catastrophe.
3. Good building codes have little value if they are not enforced. Plan
reviewers and building inspectors are key to the success of building
codes. Unless these functions are adequately funded and staffed with
qualified, trained, tested and certified personnel, the full value of
building codes will not be realized.

Pathways to Earthquake
Risk Reduction

<<< BUILT ENVIRONMENT >>>

Vulnerable Sectors

Health
Housing
Hospitality
Planning/
Local
Govmt

Infrastructure
Security Facilities

STAKEHOLDER

Energy and Mines

SECTOR

Env.
Mgmt

Utilities and Lifelines

Works &
Infrastructure

Trade and Agriculture

Education and Religion

Standards

Performance Objectives as a Function of Hazard

Level for Different Building
PERFORMANCE GOALS




Minimize the risk to occupants,

Increase the performance of
higher occupancy structures,

Improve the capability of

essential structures to function,
and

Ensure a low likelihood of

collapse for ground motions in
excess of the design levels

SOURCE: Vision 2000 Committee, Vision 2000A Framework for Performance Based Design, SEAOC

Ten broadband sensors and 5 strong

motion recorders added since 1998

Network
Evolution

60

Number of Stations

Eruption of the Soufriere

Hills Volcano (Montserrat)

40
Eruption of La Soufriere
Volcano (St. Vincent)

20
Introduction of Telemetry

0
1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

Year

1990

2000

2010

Eastern Caribbean
Monitoring Networks

Eastern Caribbean Broadband Stations

(Jun 2008)
Circles - Real Time Transmission
Stars Non Real Time Transmission

ANWB

MVO
KNMI
DLPL

SRC
USGS
SRC

IPGP

CORS Network for Geodynamic Studies

External CORS
Community CORS

Seismic Hazard Assessment

Due to the uncertainty in the number, sizes, and locations of
future earthquakes it is appropriate that engineers, planners
and disaster managers express seismic risk in terms of return
periods.

Seismic Hazard Assessment is a quantitative technique for
evaluating the level of earthquake hazard at a particular site or
for a selected region.

It allows pertinent data and professional judgement of those
trained in seismology and geology to be presented in a form
that is most suitable for decisions concerning risk.

Hazard may be expressed in parameters that are directly
related to those used for engineering design or disaster
planning/response.

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation

As earth scientists and engineers our jobs inevitably include the task
of mitigating earthquake hazards.

This is best accomplished through the implementation of long term
measures to reduce losses in damaging earthquakes.

Non-structural measures such as drills to respond appropriately
during an event and the implementation of land use policies to
discourage development in high risk areas have proven to be quite
effective in some countries.

Structural measures such as construction of buildings that adhere to
standards and codes is however arguably the most effective method.

Other options such as the implementation of early warning systems
that provide 10s of seconds in advanced warning is gaining popularity
in use to shut down machinery and critical plants.

Hazard Maps and Earthquake Risk Reduction

The first line of defence against earthquakes has historically
been the construction of buildings that can withstand severe
shaking.

Cities and counties rely on the seismic design provisions in
building codes to ensure that structures can resist earthquakes.

These maps need to be revised as new earthquake studies
improve their understanding of this hazard.

Hazard maps must be thoroughly reviewed by professional
organizations of engineers who in turn will update the seismic
design maps and seismic design provisions (application
documents) contained in building codes.

The Five Components influencing the Damage

Potential of Structures

INSTITUTO COLOMBIANO DE GEOLOGA Y MINERA

INGEOMINAS
Repblica de Colombia

Libertad y Orden

ESTUDIOS DE MICROZONIFICACION SISMICA EJECUTADOS POR INGEOMINAS

CIUDAD

ALCANCE

COSTO
(Millones)

DURACION

AOS

ESCALA

INVESTIGACIONES REALIZADAS

TR

TL

ASR
G
PG
Definitivo
32 meses
1989-1992 1:25.000
Definitivo
U$1
1994-1997 1:50.000
Indicativo
$ 600
6 meses
1999
1:10.000
R
Documentacin
$ 200
12 meses
1997-1998
H
Area Metropolitana
Indicativo
$ 240
9 meses
2000-2001 1:25.000
SD
R
de Bucaramanga
Definitivo
$ 1040
17 meses
2003
H
SD
R
Villavicencio
Indicativo
$ 410
15 meses
2001-2002 1:10.000
SD
Santiago de Cali
Definitivo
$ 2165
34 meses
2003-2005 1:10.000
H
SD
R
Nota: Se ha participado en los estudios para las Ciudades de Pereira y Medelln. Los costos no incluye la instalacin de redes de acelergrafos.
Popayn
Bogot D.C.
Armenia

Tectnica Regional
Tectnica Local
Neotectnica
Sismologa (H:Sism.Histrica)

ASR :
G:
PG :
Gt :

Az.Ssm.Reg (SD:Seales Diseo)

Geologa (R: Rellenos Antrop.)

Prospeccin Geofsica
Geotecnia (LS: Lab.Suelos ING)

RD :
EL :
V:
ER :

S
H
H

Gt

RD

EL

LS
LS
LS
LS
LS

Rta. Dinmica del Subsuelo

Efectos Locales
Vulnerabilidad
Escenarios de Riesgo

Ejecutado
Propuesto

Velocidad de Onda (m/s)

0
0

10

20

30

Profundidad (m)

TR :
TL :
N:
S:

40

50

60

70

80

90

Compilado por : Alvarado, 2006

100

200

400

600

800

ER

Other Uses of Hazard Maps

Variations of the hazard maps used for structural design may also used by:

Insurance companies to set insurance rates for properties in various
parts of the region,

Civil engineers to assess the stability and landslide potential of hillsides,

Town and Country planning divisions to frame development policies,

Standards and Environmental Protection Agency to set construction
standards that help ensure the safety of waste-disposal facilities, and

Disaster Management Organisations to plan the allocation of resources
for earthquake education and preparedness activities

Seismic Hazard Mapping Capability: Early Challenges and

Evolution

Before 1950 there were little engineering concerns for earthquake hazard as an in
the Caribbean.

The first quantitative estimates of seismic hazard were produced by Key et al. for
APETT in 1970.

APETTs Recommendations was that the Eastern Caribbean region should be
treated as equivalent to the highest risk zone of the SEAOC building code.

Many Caribbean professionals refuse to accept these high levels of hazard (0.3
0.4g with 10% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years). To compound matters
there was a wide variation in results of four separate hazard assessment papers
that were presented at the engineering conference in 1978

CCEO commissioned a special team to consult the researchers and come up with
recommended lateral forces to be applied to seismic resistant design in the
Caribbean.

The capability to evaluate the hazard potential improved thereafter with data
collection resulting from the extension and upgrading of the regional network,
enhancement of processing techniques as well as with growth in the knowledge
and understanding of regional seismicity.

Preliminary Analysis of Seismic Risk in the Lesser Antilles and

Trinidad and Tobago Region: 10% Prob. of Excedance in In 50
years (1978) Computed with Cornell Method (Taylor et al)

Iso-acceleration Map for the Trinidad and Tobago Region:

10% Prob. of Exceedance in In 50 years (1983)
Computed with the Cornell (1968) Method (Aspinall & Shepherd)

With an in improved
catalogue with more
accurate magnitudes and
hypocentres, Shepherd and
Aspinall (1983) proposed a
new estimate for Trinidad
and Tobago. The hazard
reported ranged from 20%
g off the SE coast of
Trinidad to a maximum of
35% g on the tip of both
NW and SW peninsulas.
The 25% contour passes
through the centre of
Tobago from N-S

Iso-acceleration Map for the Trinidad and Tobago Region:

10% Prob. of Exceedance in In 50 years (1993)
Computed with Historic Parametric Method (Shepherd et al)
A major enhancement was
came in 1993 through the
funding of a project in
Latin America and the
Caribbean to develop
Hazard maps for the
project region.
Catalogues were
homogenized, events were
converted to a uniform
magnitude scale and a
methodology was
developed that was
appropriate for the
available data and current
state of knowledge.
The source of a mag. 6.3 event SE of Trinidad is quite
evident from the contours in the above map.

Iso-acceleration Map for the Trinidad and Tobago Region:

10% Prob. of Excedance in In 50 years (1996)
Computed with Historic Parametric Method (Shepherd et al)
Contours vary from a low
of 240 gals (~25%g) in
the extreme southeast to
a high of 320 gals in the
extreme northwest .
Values subject to 20%
uncertainties.
In 1997 of a sequence of
earthquakes which began
in SW of Tobago made
noticeable changes to
the hazard potential of
the map.

Iso-acceleration Map for the Eastern Caribbean:

10% Prob. of Exceedance in In 50 years (1996)
Computed with Historic Parametric Method (Shepherd et al)

UBC Zones and corresponding PGA Ranges

All previous maps were prepared for zone-based Codes like the UBC and
CUBiC. The scheme above shows how locations are allocated to the
respective zones (UBC in this case). Seismic hazard map are thus
interpreted in terms of UBC zones as follows.

Eastern Caribbean Seismic Hazard represented as UBC Zones

19.5

19

18.5

18

GREEN =

UBC Zone 0

BLUE =

UBC Zone 2A

YELLOW =

UBC Zone 2B

MAGENTA =

UBC Zone 3

RED =

UBC Zone 4

17.5

17

16.5

16

15.5

15

14.5

14

13.5

13

12.5

12

11.5

11

10.5

10

9.5

9
-65

-64.5

-64

-63.5

-63

-62.5

-62

-61.5

-61

-60.5

-60

-59.5

-59

Hazard Maps for the IBC

In 2000 the CCEO took the decision to adopt the International
Building Code (IBC).

The hazard maps required for IBC are no longer a single map from
which a zone is derived but rather two maps depicting spectral
response input parameters. Short period (0.1 sec.) and 1-second
period acceleration with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years
are mapped.

This corresponds to ground motions with return period of 2475
years, which provides a significantly higher margin of safety than
zone based codes which uses PGA with 10% probability of
exceedance in 50 years.

To produce a single set of maps for all regions of the USA while
maintaining this margin of safety it was necessary for the USGS to
make deterministic adjustments to cater for near source
contribution to the hazard.

Premise of the IBC Seismic Provision

The underlying premise of the IBC seismic provisions is provide
structures with sufficient capacity to withstand anticipated levels of
ground shaking thereby protecting life safety.

Essential facilities, such as hospitals and certain critical lifelines that
are required to remain functional in the post-disaster environment
are exempted from this premise. These facilities are designed with
higher performance criteria.

All other construction is designed for the minimum performance
that would reliably protect life safety and avoid the large scale loss
of life.

2003 Revision of the EC Hazard Maps

In 2003 Shepherd and Lynch revised the Eastern Caribbean Hazard Maps,
incorporating current data and inputs which reflected new findings of a
more appropriate attenuation relationship for deep and intermediatedepth earthquakes.

Maps depicting 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were produced
at 1.0 and 0.1 sec. Normalized response spectra for hard rock and soil
were also proposed for the maps.

The latter were heavily based on the spectral characteristics of the ground
motion that the Youngs et al attenuation equation would produce during a
magnitude 7.5-8.0 event occurring at 75km depth. In the professional
judgements of the authors, this was considered to be the typical
Maximum Considered Earthquake.

Cognizant of the high sensitivity of ground acceleration to the

Attenuation relation chosen, eg as shown below by Ambeh (1993)
Atten Relation

PGA (POS)

Krinitzsky (1988)
Woodward-Clyde
Fukushima (1990)

177
143
66

PGA (Castries)

PGA (St Johns)

283
137
51

259
143
61

We fitted our limited strong motion observations to a number of

published relations in an effort to make the best selection. The Youngs
et al relation provided the best fit. It also showed some consistency
with Coda Q values observed in earlier studies.
0.7
0.06

0.6
Attenuation curves
Climent et al (1994)
Youngs et al (1997)

0.5
Spectral acceleration (g)

Groundaccelerationas a fractionof g

0.05

0.04

Pt. Cumana
St. Augustine
0.03

0.02

Brigand Hill

T=0.075s
T=0.1s
T=0.2s
T = 1 sec
T=2s

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.01

0.1

0
0

100

200

Distance (km)

300

50

100

150
Distance (km)

200

250

IBC2000 uses hazard maps in which the Maximum Credible

Earthquakes Spectral Accelerations at 0.2s and 1.0s are determined

0.1sRevised
and 1.0s Spectral
for Trinidad
and Tobago:
HazardAcceleration
Maps for Maps
the Eastern
Caribbean
2% Prob. of Exceedance in 50 years (2003)
Computed with Historic Parametric Method (Shepherd and Lynch)
11.5N
750
700
650
600

11.0N

550
500
450
400
350
300
250

10.5N

200
150
100
50
0

10.0N
62.5W

62.0W

61.5W

61.0W

60.5W

60.0W

11.5N
1000
900
800

11.0N

700
600
500
400
300

10.5N

200
100
0

10.0N
-62.5W

-62.0W

-61.5W

-61.0W

-60.5W

-60.0W

Revised Hazard Maps for the Eastern Caribbean

In the strict technical sense, these maps did not pass the full IBC
compliancy test because no adjustments were made for the near source
events in the hazard assessment process. On most of the maps, for any
given 1.0 second ordinate, the corresponding short period (0.1s) ground
motion predicted was lower than the value expected.

The primary target clients for the maps, Caribbean engineers were not
pleased with the fact that pairs of spectral ordinates did not always work
with the IBC response spectrum. In the interest of getting a more IBC
compliant solution they requested an investigation into this matter.

Upon investigation it was discovered that due to the unavoidably limited
observation of large shallow events in the return period of 2475 years
(attributed to the relatively short time-span of both historical and
instrumental catalogues) the contribution of near sources to the overall
seismic hazard may be severely underestimated.

Revised Hazard Maps for the Eastern Caribbean

This is a well known shortcoming of the probabilistic approach to hazard
assessment as evidenced by the following earthquakes that occurred on
structures that were in quiescence for long periods of time and were
underestimated during the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program:

GSHAP PGA(g) Expected

(return period 475 years)
Kobe (1995)
Gujarat (2001)
Boumerdes (2003)
Bam (2003)
E-Sichuan (2008)
Ref:

0.40-0.48
0.16-0.24
0.08-0.16
0.16-0.24
0.16-0.24

Observed

0.7-0.8
0.5-0.6
0.3-0.4
0.7-0.8
0.6->0.8

Recalling that:

In the Historic Parametric Method a curve of the PGA vs. Return Period of events in the
Catalogue is extrapolated to the 475 years return period to get the Accelerations with 10%
probability in 50 years. This process is also constrained by the accelerations predicted for
magnitudes occurring during the historical period.
For obvious reason, using this method to obtain the ground motion parameter for a 2475
years return period event could produce large errors.

Revised Hazard Maps for the Eastern Caribbean

Based on the fact that the Historic Parametric Method (HPM) had other
limitations such as absence the logic tree design which provide even more
adherence to the IBC mapping procedure, and

To the extent that the SRC had adequate data to be processed in order to
update the seismo-tectonic and attenuation models (which are needed for
the Cornell type evaluation)

It was decided to abandon further attempts to tailor the HPM software
and seek a tested and validated Cornell type program for future revisions.

The interim solution of scaling the short period spectral accelerations (Ss)
by 2.5 was proposed, evaluated and accepted. This was based our
estimation that a magnitude 6.5 7.0 is the largest shallow event that will
occur in the return period of the MCE and that 2.5xSs will provide
adequate safety.