IMF: Brexit a 'Substantial' Risk to World Economy

GOLD

International equity markets have mostly

recovered from late-June's worldwide sell-off,
following the United Kingdom's monumental
decision to leave the European Union. The Dow
Jones industrial average continued its recordsetting climb this week, and stocks throughout
Europe and Asia have mostly solidified in the
aftermath of the British vote to exit the European
Union, or Brexit.
But the global economy isn't out of the woods just
yet. The U.K.'s looming departure from the EU still
stands as a "substantial" contributor to
"economic, political and institutional uncertainty"
that's likely to erode British and global economic
performance for years to come, according to a
report published Tuesday by the International
Monetary Fund.
"The outcome of the U.K. vote, which surprised
global
financial
markets,
implies
the
materialization of an important downside risk for
the world economy," the report said, ultimately
downgrading global growth projections for the
year.
International economic output will expand only
3.1 percent this year and 3.4 percent next year,
according to the IMF's latest forecast. Downward
revisions were moderated in part by strongerthan-expected performance from emerging
market countries such as Russia and China, but
the 2016 and 2017 projections are both shy of the
fund's April forecasts.
U.S. growth was revised down 0.2 percentage
points for the year, due mostly to the country's
"weaker-than-expected growth in the first
quarter." Although the Brexit vote has thrown
some unintended consequences at the U.S. like
historically low mortgage rates and an inflated
U.S. dollar the fund said Tuesday the Brexit
decision would have a "muted impact" on the U.S.
Instead, the economic drag would be
"concentrated in advanced European economies."
"The vote has caused significant political change in
the United Kingdom, generated uncertainty about
the nature of its future economic relations with
the European Union and could heighten political
risks in the European Union itself," the report said,
indicating that "continuing uncertainty is likely to
weigh
on
consumption
and
especially
investment."

iCOM

Gold Positional View:

Trend looks bullish and it may rise to 31175 but the intraday trend may turn to bearish
below 30800. It has support near 30800/30500 and resistance near 31175/31320.

Silver Positional View:

Trend looks volatile between 46400 & 47300. It has support near 46400/45800 and
resistance near 47300/47900.

Crude Oil Positional View:

Trend looks bearish and it may fall to 3030 but above 3120, intraday trend may turn to
bullish. Supports are seen around 3030/2980 and resistance are seen around 3120/3150.

Copper Positional View:

Trend looks volatile between 330 & 338. It has support at 330/326 and resistance at
338/340.

Lead Positional View:

Trend looks volatile between 124 & 127. It has support at 125.20/124 and resistance at
127/129.50.

Natural Gas Positional View:

Natural gas looks bearish and it may fall to 180 but the intraday trend may turn to bullish
above 189. It has support near 180/176 and resistance near 189/192.50.

Trading Levels:
Commodity
ALUMINIUM

Contract

S4

S3

S2

S1

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

R4

29-Jul-16

105.08

106.73

108.38

109.07

110.03

110.72

111.68

113.33

114.98

31-Aug-16

317.43

323.68

329.93

333.97

336.18

340.22

342.43

348.68

354.93

29-Jul-16

493.30

499.50

505.70

509.80

511.90

516.00

518.10

524.30

530.50

19-Aug-16

2915

2975

3035

3057

3095

3117

3155

3215

3275

GOLD

5-Aug-16

30531

30704

30877

30985

31050

31158

31223

31396

31569

GOLDM

5-Aug-16

30468

30638

30808

30914

30978

31084

31148

31318

31488

LEAD

29-Jul-16

121.43

122.53

123.63

124.12

124.73

125.22

125.83

126.93

128.03

LEADMINI

29-Jul-16

121.45

122.55

123.65

124.15

124.75

125.25

125.85

126.95

128.05

MENTHAOIL

29-Jul-16

785.27

830.67

876.07

904.93

921.47

950.33

966.87

1012.27

1057.67

NATURALGAS

26-Jul-16

168.90

174.00

179.10

181.30

184.20

186.40

189.30

194.40

199.50

NICKEL

29-Jul-16

657.23

672.33

687.43

694.97

702.53

710.07

717.63

732.73

747.83

SILVER

5-Sep-16

45728

46138

46548

46786

46958

47196

47368

47778

48188

31-Aug-16

45790

46180

46570

46801

46960

47191

47350

47740

48130

ZINC

29-Jul-16

143.85

145.85

147.85

149.15

149.85

151.15

151.85

153.85

155.85

ZINCMINI

29-Jul-16

143.83

145.83

147.83

149.12

149.83

151.12

151.83

153.83

155.83

COPPER
CPO
CRUDEOIL

SILVERM

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iCOM