Chapter 5

Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise
15
Forecasting
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-1
15-1
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Solution to Exercise 15-1

15-1: Nave Method
Nave Forecast
Period
Observation
Forecast
24
34
24
36
34
37
36
41
37
44
41
45
44
Chapter 5
Forecasting

15-1: Three Period-Moving Average
Three-Period Moving Average
Period
Observation
Forecast
24
34
36
37
31.33
41
35.67
44
38
45
40.67
Chapter 5
Forecasting

15-1: Three Period-Weighted Moving Average
Three-Period Weighted Moving Average
Period
Observation
Forecast
24
34
36
37
33.33
41
34.5
44
38.83
45
41.83
Chapter 5
Forecasting

15-1: Four Period-Moving Average
Four-Period Moving Average
Period
Observation
Forecast
24
34
36
37
41
32.75
44
37
45
39.5
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-2
15-2
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-2: Three Period-Weighted Moving Average

Three-Year Weighted Moving Average
Year
Observation
2000
3000
2001
3200
2002
3600
2003
3650
3366.67
2004
4000
3558.33
2005
4200
3816.67
2006
4300
4041.67
2007
4410
4216.67
2008
4520
4338.33
2009
Forecast
4446.67
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-2: Using Smooth = 0.30
Smooth = 0.30
Year
Observation
Forecast
Error
2000
3000
2001
3200
3000
200
2002
3600
3060
540
2003
3650
3,222
428
2004
4000
3350.4
649.6
2005
4200
3545.28
654.72
2006
4300
3741.7
558.30
2007
4410
3909.19
500.81
2008
4520
4059.43
460.57
2009
4197.60
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-2: Four Year-Weighted Moving Average

Four-Year Weighted Moving Average
Year
Observation
2000
3000
2001
3200
2002
3600
2003
3650
2004
4000
3480
2005
4200
3735
2006
4300
3970
2007
4410
4145
2008
4520
4294
2009
Forecast
4411
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-3
15-3
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-3: Using Smooth = 0.30 and = 0.20

= 0.30
Season
Average
2002-2003
25
2003-2004
= 0.20
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
35
25
10
25
10
2004-2005
29
28
27
2005-2006
34
28.3
5.7
27.6
6.4
2006-2007
35
30.01
4.99
28.9
6.1
2007-2008
33
31.51
1.49
30.12
2.88
2008-2009
31.96
30.98
Forecast of the leading scoring average for the 2008-2009 is 30.98

The smoothing constant of .30 provides the best forecast since the error
value is smaller.
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-4
15-4
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-4: Four Year-Moving Average and its Weighted Average

4 Year-Moving Average
Week
Observation
Observation
23
23
36
36
45
45
46
46
55
41.4
55
37.5
64
48.4
64
45.5
55
55.8
55
52.5
58
56.8
58
55
Forecast
Forecast
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-4: Four Year-Moving Average

4 Year-Moving Average
Week
Observation
Forecast
Observation
Forecast
66
58
66
58
10
65
61.20
65
60.75
11
48
62.90
48
61
12
67
57.7
67
59.25
13
58
60.8
58
61.5
14
68
59.4
68
59.5
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-5
15-5
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-5: Using Smooth = 0.30 and = 0.10

= 0.30
Period
Average
200
= 0.10
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
265
200
65
200
65
300
219.5
80.5
206.5
93.5
350
243.65
106.35
215.85
134.15
250
275.56
-25.56
229.26
20.74
350
267.89
82.11
231.33
118.67
265
292.52
-27.52
243.20
21.8
390
284.26
105.74
245.38
144.62
350
315.98
34.02
259.84
90.16
10
400
326.19
73.81
268.86
131.14
Forecast of the leading scoring average for the year 11 is 333.57 and 281.97 respectively.
The smoothing constant of .30 provides the best forecast since the error value is smaller.
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-6
15-6
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-6: Using Smooth = 0.30 and = 0.10

Exponential Smoothing, = 0.30
Period
Average
35
4-mo. moving average
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
27
35
-8
37
34.2
2.8
41
35.04
5.96
45
36.83
8.17
35
10
38
39.28
-1.28
37.5
0.5
44
38.90
5.1
40.25
3.75
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-6: Using Smooth = 0.30 and = 0.10

Period
Average
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
42
40.43
1.57
42
39
40.90
-1.9
42.25
-3.25
10
43
40.33
2.67
40.75
2.25
11
39
41.13
-2.13
42
-3
12
40
40.49
-0.49
40.75
-0.47
13
40.34
40.25
The forecast for the next month (13) is 40.34 for exponential smoothing and 40.25 for the 4month moving average.
Based from MAD and MSE computations below, the 4-month moving average is the better
forecast since it has the smallest in terms of MAD value and in terms of MSE value.
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-6: MAD and MSE computations

Period
Average
35
Error
Absolute
error
Squared
error
Error
Absolute
error
Squared
Error
27
-8
64
37
2.8
2.8
7.84
41
5.96
5.96
35.52
45
8.17
8.17
66.74
10
10
100
38
-1.28
1.28
1.64
0.5
0.5
0.25
44
5.1
5.1
26.01
3.75
3.75
14.06
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-6: MAD and MSE Computations

Period
Average
Error
Absolute
error
Squared
error
Error
Absolute
error
Squared
Error
42
1.57
1.57
2.46
39
-1.9
1.9
3.61
-3.25
3.25
10.56
10
43
2.67
2.67
7.13
2.25
2.25
5.06
11
39
-2.13
2.13
4.54
-3
12
40
-0.49
0.49
0.24
-0.47
0.47
0.22
40.07
219.73
23.22
139.15
MAD =
40.07/11
=3.64
MSE =
219.73/11
=19.98
MAD =
23.22/8
=2.90
MSE =
139.15/8
=17.39
Total
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-7
15-7
Chapter 5
Forecasting

15-7: Three-Month Weighted Moving Average
Three-Month Weighted Moving Average
Month
Complaints
January
60
February
48
March
55
April
50
53.5
May
55
51.33
June
Forecast
53.33
Forecast for June is 53.33

Forecast for July cannot be determined unless the actual
complaints for June is given.
Forecast for August cannot be determined unless the actual
complaiants for July is given.
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-8
15-8
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-8: Using three-week and four-week moving average

three-week moving average
Period
Average
13,000
18,000
19,000
Four-week moving average
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
16,000
16,667
-667
17,000
17,667
-667
16,500
500
15,000
17,333
-2,333
17,500
-2,500
14,000
16,000
-2,000
16,750
-2,750
19,000
15,333
3,667
15,500
3,500
20,000
16,000
4,000
16,250
3,750
10
16,500
17,667
-1,167
17,000
-500
11
17,500
18,500
-1,000
17,375
125
12
20,000
18,000
2,000
18,250
1,750
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-8: Computation for MAD
Period
Error
Absolute
error
Error
Absolute
error
-667
667
-667
667
500
500
-2,333
2,333
-2,500
2,500
-2,000
2,000
-2,750
2,750
3,667
3,667
3,500
3,500
4,000
4,000
3,750
3,750
10
-1,167
1,167
-500
500
11
-1,000
1,000
125
125
12
2,000
2,000
1,750
1,750
Total
17,501
MAD = 17,501/9= 1,944.55
15,375
MAD = 15,375/8= 1,921.88
Since the
MAD of the
four-weeks is the
smaller value,
the four-week
appears to be the
best data to use in
moving average.
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-8: Computation for Percentage Error and MAPE

Period
Error
Absolute
error
% Error
-667
667
4.17
-667
667
-2,333

Error
Absolute
error
% Error
3.92
500
500
2.94
2,333
15.55
-2,500
2,500
16.67
-2,000
2,000
14.29
-2,750
2,750
19.64
3,667
3,667
19.3
3,500
3,500
18.42
4,000
4,000
20
3,750
3,750
18.75
10
-1,167
1,167
7.07
-500
500
3.03
11
-1,000
1,000
5.71
125
125
0.71
12
2,000
2,000
10
1,750
1,750
8.75
Total
Total of Actual
= 205,000
17,501
MAPE = 17,501/205,000
= .0854 or 8.54%
15,375
MAPE = 15,375/205,000
= .075 or 7.5%
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-9
15-9
Chapter 5
Forecasting
15-9: Using Smooth = 0.40 and computing accuracy

= 0.40
Month
Demand
Forecast
Error
Absolute
Error
% Error
January
60
February
70
50
20
20
28.57
March
55
58
-3
5.45
April
60
56.8
3.2
3.2
5.33
May
45
58.08
-13.08
13.08
29.07
June
60
52.85
7.15
7.15
19.92
July
65
55.71
9.29
9.29
14.29
TOTAL
415
55.72
MAPE = 55.72/415 = .1342 = 13.42%

Absolute accuracy percentage = 1- MAPE = 1-.1342 = 0.8658 or 86.58%
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-10
15-10
Chapter 5
Forecasting

15-10: Equation for Linear Trend
Trend Line Equation = 30.4 + 2t
Year
t
Flat TV Sold
Y
tY
t2
40
40
25
50
35
105
39
156
16
43
215
25
Total = 15
182
566
55
Sales Forecast in year 5:

F5= 30.4 + 2(5)
= 30.4 + 10
= 40.4
F5= 30.4 + 2(6)
= 30.4 + 12
= 42.4
Mean
15/5 = 3
182/5=36.4
Computed value of Y = 30.4 + 2t
Trend line slope (b) = [566 5(3)(36.4)]/[55-5(3)2] = (566 546)/(55 - 45)= 20/10 = 2
Trend line intercept (a) = mean Y b (mean t) = 36.4 2(3) = 36.4 - 6 = 30.4
Chapter 5
Forecasting
Exercise 15-11
15-11
Chapter 5
Forecasting

15-11: Equation for Linear Trend
Regression Equation = -0.41 + 0.69X
Sales
X
Profit (1,000)
Y
XY
X2
12
84
144
15
135
225
16
10
160
256
18
12
216
324
14
10
140
196
17
13
221
289
Total = 92
61
956
1434

Y = -0.41 + .69(X)
= -0.14 + .69(25)
= 17.11 0r 17,110
Mean
92/6 = 15.33
61/6=10.17
Computed value of Y = -0.41 + 0.69X
Trend line slope (b)=[956 6(15.33)(10.17)]/[1434-6(15.33)2]=(956935.44)/(1434-1410)=20.56/24 =

0.69
Trend line intercept (a) = mean Y b (mean X) = 10.17 0.69(15.33) = 10.17 10.58 = -0.41

Chapter 5

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Chapter 5

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Chapter 5

Solution to Exercise 15-1

Solution to Exercise 15-1

Solution to Exercise 15-1

Solution to Exercise 15-1

Solution to Exercise 15-2

15-2: Three Period-Weighted Moving Average

Solution to Exercise 15-2

15-2: Using Smooth = 0.30

Solution to Exercise 15-2

15-2: Four Year-Weighted Moving Average

Solution to Exercise 15-3

15-3: Using Smooth = 0.30 and = 0.20

Forecast of the leading scoring average for the 2008-2009 is 30.98

Solution to Exercise 15-4

15-4: Four Year-Moving Average and its Weighted Average

Solution to Exercise 15-4

15-4: Four Year-Moving Average

Solution to Exercise 15-5

15-5: Using Smooth = 0.30 and = 0.10

Solution to Exercise 15-6

15-6: Using Smooth = 0.30 and = 0.10

4-mo. moving average

Solution to Exercise 15-6

15-6: Using Smooth = 0.30 and = 0.10

4-mo. moving average

Solution to Exercise 15-6

15-6: MAD and MSE computations

4-mo. moving average

Solution to Exercise 15-6

15-6: MAD and MSE Computations

4-mo. moving average

Solution to Exercise 15-7

Forecast for June is 53.33

Solution to Exercise 15-8

15-8: Using three-week and four-week moving average

Four-week moving average

Solution to Exercise 15-8

15-8: Computation for MAD

three-week moving average

Four-week moving average

Solution to Exercise 15-8

15-8: Computation for Percentage Error and MAPE

Four-week moving average

Solution to Exercise 15-9

15-9: Using Smooth = 0.40 and computing accuracy

MAPE = 55.72/415 = .1342 = 13.42%

Solution to Exercise 15-10

Sales Forecast in year 5:

Computed value of Y = 30.4 + 2t

Solution to Exercise 15-11

Sales Forecast in year 5:

Computed value of Y = -0.41 + 0.69X

Trend line slope (b)=[956 6(15.33)(10.17)]/[1434-6(15.33)2]=(956935.44)/(1434-1410)=20.56/24 =

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