Coastal protection strategy

for Tacloban and Palo

Final ceremony
George Peters
1 June 2016

Introduction

November 2013 the largest typhoon ever recorded Yolanda.

NDRRMC confirmed 6,201 identified fatalities, 5,803 of which in
the Eastern Visayas.

The low-lying areas on the

eastern side of Tacloban
city were hit hardest with
some residential areas
completely washed away.
Flooding also extended for
1 km inland along the east
coast of the province.

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Challenges for Tacloban and Palo

The attractiveness of Tacloban and Palo as regional capital and their
economic development are inseparably linked to the sea. The future
coastal protection strategy must therefore guarantee Taclobans and
Palos safety and attractiveness as well as the livelihoods of people
residing along the coast. Taking into account:
Urbanisation and economic development
Storm surges and climate change
Rainfall and fluvial flooding

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Coastal Protection Strategy (1-2)

Objective:
to develop a coastal protection strategy to:
minimize flood risks (loss of life and damage to properties)
due to natural coastal hazards (surge and typhoon waves);
enhance the sustainable development of the coastal zone
Scenarios (100 years):
Climate change
Urban development
Multi-level safety approach:
Level 3, resilience and emergency response
Level 2, planning and zoning
Level 1, flood protection, prevention of inundation

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Coastal Protection Strategy (2-2)

Safety to the people; everyone within 1:1,000 floodplain
Max. resilience,
Max. reduction casualties, loss of life
High risk areas
hard measures
1:100 including climate change
(higher then 2.6 -3.9m MSL)
New developments
planned outside danger zones
1:1,000 (higher then 3.5 5.8m MSL)
Soft measures where possible
Enhancement of the coastal zone

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Flood hazard & risk maps

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Flood protection level

Storm surge for different return
interval Zone
Area
10
100
I
II
III
IV

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

2.30
2.29
2.29
2.33
2.21
2.05
2.00
1.74
1.68
1.67
1.62

3.77
3.75
3.79
3.89
3.65
3.29
3.24
2.87
2.77
2.70
2.60

Including cc (SLR & incr. prob.)

1000
4.54
4.92
5.40
5.74
5.26
4.59
4.55
3.99
3.82
3.70
3.56

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Yolanda
4.01
5.55
5.32
5.30
5.56
5.65
5.31
4.97
4.76
4.88
4.52

Area
I
II
III
IV

Zone
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K

10cc
3.24
3.23
3.26
3.32
3.18
2.97
2.94
2.69
2.63
2.59
2.53

100cc
4.4
4.69
5.05
5.3
4.97
4.49
4.47
4.05
3.93
3.85
3.75

1000cc
5.77
6.23
6.82
7.24
6.6
5.81
5.71
5.07
4.91
4.77
4.57

4 different strategies
1.

donothing;

2.

level 2&3 the strategy in which no investment in flood protection

structures will take place; but investments in resilience and
emergency preparedness ensure safety for all people;

3.

level 1, 2&3, this strategy provides flood protection safety for the
areas currently at risk;

4.

level 1, 2&3, this strategy provides flood protection safety for the
areas that will be at risk in the future as a result of urban and rural
development.

Each of the strategies has been analysed in a scenario

including with and without climate change

1
8

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Non-structural

Structural &
Non-structural

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Structural &
Non-structural

4 different strategies (incl .climate change)

Do-nothing

Level 2 & 3

Level 1, 2 & 3
Incl. landuse
2016

Level 1, 2 & 3
Incl. landuse
2116

10Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

4 different strategies (incl .climate change)

Table 1, overview of strategies1 4
1
Do-Nothing,
Incl climate change

2
Level 2 & 3 only,
Incl climate change

3
Level 1, 2 & 3
for "current land use"
incl climate change

4
Level 1, 2 & 3
for "future land use (2116)"
incl climate change

What is the benefit cost

ratio?

+-2.3

+-2.3

What is the IRR?

+-27%

+-27%

What are the annual

Capital Investments
"resilience"

What are the Capital

Investments
"structures" (CAPEX)

9.3 BPhP

> 9.3 BPhP

What are the annual

Operation &
Maintenance costs
(OPEX)

0.1 BPhP / year

> 0.1 BPhP / year

How adaptive is the

strategy?

wait and see (and do?)

0.04 BPhP / year

acceptance of damage

How to deal with

fatalities?

acceptance of fatalities

11 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban

> 0.04 BPhP / year

Level 2 & 3 measures

sustainable solution for
only; in time also layer 3 1
now; crest of design
already invest in the future
measures can be
sufficiently wide, that it
included
can be raised in the future

improved resilience,
What is the flood risk
no reduction, getting
though still economic
reduction?
worse as climate changes damage, which will get
worse as climate changes

How to deal with

economic damage?

0.04 BPhP / year

acceptance of damage

flood risk significantly

reduced; however, the
more extreme event
(>100 years) can still
occur

Multi-level safety
including

flood risk significantly

reduced; however, the more
extreme event (>100 years)
can still occur

limited flood damage

limited flood damage behind
behind sea defence in
sea defence in case of
case of extreme storm
extreme storm surge event
surge event (1/100 year
(1/100 year incl CC)
incl CC)

reduced fatalities due to

no inundation for the
no inundation for the
zoning & improved
protected area and
protected area and reduced
emergency response
reduced fatalities for the
fatalities for the other zones
activities
other zones
and Palo
| 1 June 2016

ICZM
Life cycle approach
Adaptive
Stakeholders
Maintenance
Building with Nature
Long term
Climate change
MCA
Cost Benefit
Flood risk
Individual risk

Project area - North

Level 2, new development only above surge

level 1/1000 year return period

Level 2, ensure sufficient future space allocation

for the creeks and rivers

Level 3, rely heavily upon evacuation measures

(invest in evacuation shelters and awareness
raising)

Restore original coastal mangroves with a 100

meter belt of typhoon-robust mangrove species
to close gaps in coastal vegetation

Non-structural

12 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

https://infraworks360.autodesk.com/portal/2dView/modelId/TW9kZWx
UaHVtYm5haWxHZY8CxWN_oeIRF44U2fOM6Cs=/

13 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

14 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Structural &
Non-structural

Project area - mid

land
reclamation

elevated
road
sea wall

Inland levee

Level 1, protect coastal flooding (structural

options):
Coastal structure (coastline seawall)
Land reclamation (offshore seawall)
Elevated road (onshore seawall)

Level 1, protect fluvial flooding: improved

urban drainage required

Level 2, limited in new developments, and

recommended above surge level 1/1000 year
return period

Level 2, idea to create mangrove park northwest of airport for education of DRR function
soft measures?

Level 3, evacuation measures (with focus on

areas that are not protected by coastal
defences)

Coastal
protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016
15

Mid North - MCA

A

16 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

17 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

18 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Mid South - MCA

weight factor elevated road

Technical
10
76%
Socio-economic
70
54%
Environmental
20
80%
61,6

19 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

sea wall
56%
47%
20%
42,8

20 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Project area - South

Level 1 : Dike, connect to higher grounds

Protecting Palo, but only in case fluvial
flooding is mitigated, retention/re-directing.
Strengthen the disaster risk function of the
sandy shoreline through expansion of
beach forest to 100m wide forest belt

Level 2: no new developments seawards of

dike, preferably above surge level 1/1000 year
return period.

Level 3, rely upon evacuation measures

(invest in evacuation shelters, awareness)
Convert fishponds from 0-100 meters from
coastline and fishponds without FLAs
elsewhere back to mangrove habitats as
natural DRR

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

22 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

23 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Coastal protection measures

24 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

CAPEX / OPEX
Table 1, cost estimate for the coastal protection strategy
Short-term

Resilience (level 3)

Mapping
(level 2)

Protection (level 1)

Maintain ecosystem

Million PhP

Long-term

Million PhP

10

1,500 m elevated road north Tacloban

163

Maintenance

330

650 m sea wall

641

Maintenance

641

2503

Maintenance

3300

450

Maintenance

545

1,300 m seawall in front of Palo

1076

Maintenance

1076

4,400 m dike around Palo

1321

Maintenance

2600

Sea defence airport

3158

Maintenance

3158

Total costs

9,322

Land reclamation (180 m width) incl. 3200m seawall

5,000 m Elevated road to MacArthur monument

Transfer of Knowledge

Relocation due to construction of sea defences

482

Total costs

488

11,650
Transfer of Knowledge

610

610

Personal DRR measures

26

Repeat every 5 years

496

Community information and action on risks and DRR

13

Repeat every 5 years

248

Mainstreaming DRR, CCA and EMR in CBOs

Repeat every 5 years

74

Ecosystem awareness

Repeat every 5 years

74

Long-term sustainable livelihood programme in

existing barangays
Alternative livelihood programmes in relocation sites
Enhance drainage system capacity
Improve evacuation centres & visibility of evacuation
routes & early warning systems
Community-based natural resource management
Strengthen LGU Capacity
PAGASA improved forecasting
Total

20

Repeat every 5 years

372

Repeat every 5 years

98

39

Repeat every 10 years

353

641

Repeat every 10, 25 & 50 years

1396

Repeat every 5 years

74

Repeat every 5 years

124

65
830

3,309

25 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Grand total

10,640

15,569

Funding options
Strategy for a 1/100 year storm surge event (incl. climate change)
Capital investments of PhP 9.3 billion (2016-2020)
Annual maintenance PhP 0.1 billion;
Reduction of flood damage risks of PhP 15 billion;
Benefit cost ratio is around 2.3;
Economic internal rate of return is 27%.

To reorient the presently available budget at DPWH (PhP 7.9 billion)

To supplement this budget with additional appropriations from DPWH,
DENR and/or ODA funding (WB, ADB, JICA etc).
Budget for maintenance shall be made available by the LGUs.

Level 2 & 3 measures and implementation of the coastal protection

strategy, fall within a category of technical assistance activities that is
commonly supported by ODA grants.

26 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Proposed strategy is.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

future proof, lifecycle approach;

flexible, adaptive and grows with climate change;
an attractive integrated solution that creates economic value for people of
City of Tacloban and the Municipality of Palo;
offers protection options in a transparent process with stakeholders;
applies the Multi-level safety approach;
1/100 safety including climate change (1/1,000 year event as today);
maximum safety for people (emergency response).

a strategy built up from hard measures where necessary and soft

measures where possible, creating a healthy ecosystem and a protective
landscape for all people in and around Tacloban and Palo.
Strategy for a 1/100 year storm surge event (incl. climate change)
1. Capital investments of PhP 9.3 billion (2016).
2. Reduction of flood damage risks of PhP 15 billion.

27 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

Roadmap (1-2)
Table 1, short-term activities for finalizing the strategy
When

Short

Finalise Coastal Protection Strategy

By

Workout agreed strategy, measures and investment program

PRA

May -June
2016

Final Workshop Tacloban and Manila

PRA

1st and 2nd of

June

Sign Convenant of Support with relevant stakeholders

PRA

1st and 2nd of

June

Adopt the principles (ICZM/DRRM) and outcomes of the Coastal Protection

Strategy in the CLUPs, LDDRMP and emergency response plans

LGUs

mid-2016

Upgrade all community emergency response plans & measures (level 3

activities) up to standard,

LGUs

Short term

Table 2, mid-term activities for implementing the strategy

Mid

Implementation

By

Keep all stakeholders engaged (LGU in the lead for overall coordination, and
implementation agencies especially DPWH, DENR, PRA -for specific
components).

PRA, DPWH,
DENR and
LGUs

Liason during the implementation of the coastal strategy, monitoring and safeguarding its sustainable principles.

Government of
the Netherlands

Improve models for prediction and early warning systems for storm surges.

PAGASA

Secure funding for design and Implementation (National Budget and/or ODA)

DPWH, DENR

Design and construct flood protection structures and implement emergency

response measures

DPWH (hard)
DENR (soft)

9
Identify and prioritize coastal protection plans for similar vulnerable areas/cities
28 Coastal protection
strategy
for Tacloban
and PaloDENR,
| 1 June
2016LGUs)
(involved
agencies:
DOST, DPWH,
PRA,

PRA

When
2016-2017

2016

2016-2017
2016
2016-2018

2016

Roadmap (2-2)
Table 1, mid-term activities for re-arranging institutional setup.
Mid

Institutional

By

When

10

Strengthen DENRs and BFARs contribution to DRRM by more focus on the

implementation of disaster risk reduction (soft and also hard measures if
needed) in ongoing National ICM Program, and more stringent regulation on
preservation of the coastal ecosystems

DENR and BFAR

2016-2017

11

Strengthen DPWHs contribution to ICZM by more focus on BwN principles as

integrated part of the (engineering) solutions (soft where possible and hard
where needed).

DPWH

2016-2017

12

Strengthen PRAs contribution to ICZM/DRRM by focusing on the contribution of PRA

reclamations to coastal flood protection and disaster risk reduction.

2016-2017

Table 2, long-term activities for maintenance of the strategy.

Long

29

Maintenance

By

When

13

Keep all stakeholders engaged (LGU in the lead)

LGUs

14

Allocate sufficient funding for Training, ToK and Awareness Raising

DILG, DENR

Annually

15

Allocate sufficient funding for maintenance of hard infrastructure

LGUs

Annually

Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016

2016-2116

Thank you for your attention

30 Coastal protection strategy for Tacloban and Palo | 1 June 2016