AI not yet but Machine Learning and Big Data are rapidly evolving

In his book Adventures in the Screen Trade, the hugely successful

screenwriter William Goldmans opening sentence is Nobody knows
anything. Goldman is talking about predictions of what might and what might
not succeed at the box office. He goes on to write: Why did Universal, the
mightiest studio of all, pass on Star Wars? Because nobody, nobody -- not
now, not ever -- knows the least goddamn thing about what is or isnt going to
work at the box office. Prediction is hard, Not one person in the entire motion
picture field knows for a certainty whats going to work. Every time out its a
guess. Of course history is often a good predictor of what might work in the
future and when, but according to Goldman time and time again predictions
have failed miserably in the entertainment business.
It is exactly the same with technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI), probably
more than any other technology has fared the worst when it comes to
predictions of when it will be available as a truly thinking machine. Fei-Fei Li,
director of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Lab even thinks: todays
machine-learning and AI tools wont be enough to bring about real AI. And
Demis Hassabis founder of Googles DeepMind (and in my opinion one of the
most advanced AI developers) forecasts: its many decades away for full AI.
Researchers are however starting to make considerable advances in soft AI.
Although with the exception of less than 30 corporations there is very little
tangible evidence that this soft AI or Deep Learning is currently being used
productively in the workplace.
Some of the companies currently selling or and/or using soft AI or Deep
Learning to enhance their services; IBMs Watson, Google Search and Google
DeepMind, Microsoft Azure (and Cortana), Baidu Search led by Andrew Ng,
Palantir Technology, maybe Toyotas new AI R&D lab if it has released any
product internally, within Netflix and Amazon for predictive analytics and other
services, the insurer and finance company USAA, Facebook (video), General
Electric, the Royal Bank of Scotland, Nvidia, Expedia and MobileEye and to
some extent the AI light powered collaborative robots from Rethink Robotics.
There are numerous examples of other companies developing AI and Deep
Learning products but less than a hundred early-adopter companies
worldwide. Essentially soft AI and Deep Learning solutions, such as Apples
Siri, Drive.ai, Viv, Intels AI solutions, Nervana Systems, Sentient
Technologies, and many more are still very much in their infancy,
especially when it comes to making any significant impact on business
transactions and systems processes.
Machine Learning
On the other hand, Machine Learning (ML), which is a subfield of AI, which
some call light AI, is starting to make inroads into organizations worldwide.
There are even claims that: Machine Learning is becoming so pervasive
today that you probably use it dozens of times per day without knowing it.

Although according to Intel: less than 10 per cent of servers worldwide were
deployed in support of machine learning last year (2015). It is highly probable
Google, Facebook, Salesforce, Microsoft and Amazon would have taken up a
large percentage of that 10 percent alone.
ML technologies, such as the location awareness systems like Apples
iBeacon software, which connects information from a users Apple profile to
in-store systems and advertising boards, allowing for a personalized
shopping experience and tracking of (profiled) customers within physical
stores. IBMs Watson and Google DeepMinds Machine Learning have both
shown how their systems can analyze vast amounts of information (data),
recognize sophisticated patterns, make significant savings on energy
consumption and empower humans with new analytical capabilities.
The promise of Machine Learning is to
Neither Machine Learning nor Deep Learning should be considered
Crossing the chasm not without lots of data
If driverless vehicles can move around with decreasing problems, this is not
because AI has finally arrived, it is not that we have machines that are
capable of human intelligence, but it is that we have machines that are very
useful in dealing with big data and are able to make decisions based on
uncertainties regarding the perception and interpretation of their environment
but we are not quite there yet! Today we have systems targeted at narrow
tasks and domains, but not that promised by general purpose AI, which
should be able to accomplish a wide range of tasks, including those not
foreseen by the systems designers.
Essentially theres nothing in the very recent developments in machine
learning that significantly affects our ability to model, understand and make
predictions in systems where data is scarce.
Nevertheless companies are starting to take notice, investors are funding ML
startups, and corporations recognize that utilizing ML technologies is a good
step forward for organizations interested in gaining the benefits promised by
Big Data and Cognitive Computing over the long term. Microsofts CEO, Satya
Nadella, says the company is heavily invested in ML and he is: very bullish
about making machine learning capability available (over the next 5 years) to
every developer, every application, and letting any company use these core
cognitive capabilities to add intelligence into their core operations.
The next wave understanding information
Organizations that have lots of data know that information is always limited,
incomplete and possibly noisy. ML algorithms are capable of searching the
data and building a knowledge base to provide useful information for
example ML algorithms can separate spam emails from genuine emails. A

Machine Learning algorithms often work on the principle most

Machine Learning and Big Data will greatly compliment human ingenuity a
human-machine combination of statistical analysis, critical thinking, inference,
persuasion and quantitative reasoning all wrapped up in one.
Every block of stone has a statue inside it and it is the task of the sculptor to
discover it. I saw the angel in the marble and carved until I set him free. ~
Michelangelo (14751564)
The key questions businesses and policy makers need to be concerned with
as we enter the new era of Machine Learning and Big Data 1) who owns the
data and 2) how is it used?

Machine Learning and the Financial Sector

A new report from Euromoney Institutional Investor Thought Leadership,
commissioned by Baker & McKenzie, GHOSTS IN THE MACHINE: Artificial
intelligence, risks and regulation in financial markets, surveyed 424 senior
executives from financial institutions around the world and held in depth
interviews with an additional 11 industry executives and experts. The

Despite the advances in soft AI through ML we remain several years away

from crossing the chasm to the early majority of companies adopting MLs
promising technology.

I used to like to go to work, but they shut it down

I've got a right to go to work, but there's no work here to be found
Songwriter: Mark Knopfler.
Group: Dire Straits
Telegraph Road lyrics Universal Music Publishing Group

While we may have certain hypotheses, based on known information, we

must also be willing to abandon these hypotheses in the face of evidence
against them.
I am always on the lookout for new evidence that may inform my
understanding of advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its impact on work
and therefore change my current knowledge of the bearing AI is having on
jobs, good and bad.

On March 23, 1994, a medical examiner viewed the body of Ronald Opus and
concluded that he died from a gunshot wound of the head caused by a
shotgun. Investigation to that point had revealed that the decedent had
jumped from the top of a ten-story building with the intent to commit suicide.
(He left a note indicating his despondency.) As he passed the 9th floor on the
way down, his life was interrupted by a shotgun blast through a window, killing
him instantly. Neither the shooter nor the decedent was aware that a safety
net had been erected at the 8th floor level to protect some window washers,
and that the decedent would most likely not have been able to complete his
intent to commit suicide because of this.
Ordinarily, a person who starts into motion the events with a suicide intent
ultimately commits suicide even though the mechanism might not be what
they intended. That he was shot on the way to certain death nine stories
below probably would not change his mode of death from suicide to homicide,
but the fact that his suicide intent would not have been achieved under any
circumstance caused the medical examiner to feel that he had homicide on
his hands.
Further investigation led to the discovery that the room on the 9th floor from
whence the shotgun blast emanated was occupied by an elderly man and his
wife. He was threatening her with the shotgun because of an inter spousal
spat and became so upset that he could not hold the shotgun straight.
Therefore, when he pulled the trigger, he completely missed his wife, and the
pellets went through the window, striking the decedent.
When one intends to kill subject A but kills subject B in the attempt, one is
guilty of the murder of subject B. The old man was confronted with this

conclusion, but both he and his wife were adamant in stating that neither
knew that the shotgun was loaded.
It was the longtime habit of the old man to threaten his wife with an unloaded
shotgun. He had no intent to murder her; therefore, the killing of the deceased
appeared then to be accident. That is, the gun had been accidentally loaded.
But further investigation turned up a witness that their son was seen loading
the shotgun approximately six weeks prior to the fatal accident. That
investigation showed that the mother (the old lady) had cut off her son's
financial support, and her son, knowing the propensity of his father to use the
shotgun threateningly, loaded the gun with the expectation that the father
would shoot his mother. The case now becomes one of murder on the part of
the son for the death of Ronald Opus.
Now comes the exquisite twist. Further investigation revealed that the son,
Ronald Opus himself, had become increasingly despondent over the failure of
his attempt to get his mother murdered. This led him to jump off the ten-story
building on March 23, only to be killed by a shotgun blast through a 9th story
window.
The medical examiner closed the case as a suicide.
Ronald Opus an illustrative case by Don Harper Mills