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Adi Djoko Guritno | Master of Management Gadjah Mada University | adidjokoguritno@gmail.

com

Agenda

Introduction

Sistem Logistik MP3EI

Logistics Performance Index

Balance Inventory

Supply Chain Strategy

Model Distribusi

Future Transaction
- Reseller - Buyer

SC - Goals

SC & SCM
-De,inition
The sequence of business processes and information that
provides a product or service from suppliers through
manufacturing and distribution to the ultimate consumer
Efficient Management of the Supply Chain (plan, source,
make, deliver and return) in order to maximize the value for
money to the customer

Supply Chain Management


- A History

1960s - Inventory Management Focus, Cost Control


1970s - MRP & BOM - OperaBons Planning
1980s - MRPII, JIT - Materials Management, LogisBcs
1990s - SCM - ERP - Integrated Purchasing, Financials,
Manufacturing, Order Entry
2000s - OpBmized Value Network with Real-Time
Decision Support; Synchronized & CollaboraBve Extended
Network

Supply Chain Management

- The importance

Dealing with uncertain environments matching supply


and demand
Shorter product life cycles of high-technology products
The growth of technologies such as the Internet enable
greater collabora<on among supply chain partners
Availability of SCM technologies on the market

Populasi Asia dan Dunia

Global Supply Chain Management


Costs
Customs Duty
Export Regulations
Time
Taxes on Corporate Income
Offset Trade and Local Content

World Trade

U
ill TE
2.5 m

3.0 mill TEU

mill

3.2 mill TEU

1.5

13.3 mill
TEU

TEU

6.6 mill TEU

Drewry Shipping Consultants, Container Market, 2008

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Jalur Logistik Kontainer

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MP3EI
- Kerangka Desain

13

Konektivitas Global Indonesia


- Konsep MP3EI

14

6 Koridor Ekonomi
- Konsep MP3EI

15

Konektivitas Nasional

16

LPI Score

17

LPI Components

Customs
Infrastructure
InternaBonal shipments
LogisBcs quality and competence
Tracking and tracing
DomesBc logisBcs cost
Timeliness

18

LPI Among Asian Countries


Country

Rank

Score

% Highest Performer

Singapore

4.00

90.2

Indonesia

75

2.76

56.5

Malaysia

29

3.44

79.9

Philippines

44

3.14

68.6

Vietnam

53

2.96

63.1

Cambodia

129

2.37

44.0

Thailand

35

3.29

73.6

Australia

18

3.84

91.2

Japan

3.07

95.2

China

27

3.49

79.9

Myanmar

133

2.33

42.7

Lao PDR

118

2.46

47.0
Logistics Performance Index World Bank,
2010

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LPI Score

20

LPI Score
- Cumulative distribution

Indonesia

21

Indonesia logistics
- Current conditions
90% of all domestically transported goods go by land
Cargo volumes grew 10-20% annually by rail, 5-10% by air, and
10-15% by sea.
11% of national road system (3843 km) is severely damaged.
Capital`s road network is growing at 0.9%, but the car ownership is
growing more than 10% annually.
Toll roads: 758 km (697 km in Java, 43 km in Sumatra, 18 km in
Sulawesi), just 125 km of new toll roads up to 2009
Tanjung Priok handles up to 70% of total international container trade,
with a 21% yoy rise in volumes carried to 4.61 m TEUs
TrafXic growth at SHIA at 17.6% (fastest in ASEAN) with 34.16 m
passengers (2010)

22

LPI Indonesia

23

LPI Indonesia

- Faktor yg diperbaiki

Score

Rank

Customs

2.43

72

Infrastructure

2.54

69

Interna<onal Shipments

2.82

80

Logis<cs Competence

2.47

92

Tracking and Tracing

2.77

80

Timeliness

3.46

69

LPI Score

2.76

75
Logistics Performance Index World Bank,
2010

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Import vs Export
Export

Import

277.22

492.98

Lead Bme (days)

2.12

5.35

Cost (US$)

379

1,024

300.00

75.00

Lead Bme (days)

4.00

10.00

Cost (US$)

1,000

3,000

No. of agencies

3.67

2.50

No. of documents

5.00

3.50

Port or airport
supply chain
Land Supply
Chain

Clearance
Process (days)

Distance (km)

Distance (km)

Without physical inspecBon

2.14

With physical inspecBon

5.12
Logistics Performance Index World Bank,
2010

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Rail passanger & cargo trafVic


- 2000 to 09

Year

Passengers (m)

Cargo (m tonnes)

2000

192

19.55

2001

187

18.70

2002

176

17.10

2003

155

16.29

2004

150

17.15

2005

152

17.34

2006

159

17.27

2007

175

17.08

2008

194

19.44

2009

207

18.92
State Owned Railways Company

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Road Network
- By administrative level (km)

500,000
450,000

State

Provincial

Regency

Total

400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Provincial and Regency Public Works Offices

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Cargo Services
- Loading and Unloading 200-09 (m tonnes)

L- Inter-island L- Interna<onal UL - Inter Island UL - Interna<onal


2000

127.74

141.53

137.51

45.04

2001

163.69

143.75

138.67

46.66

2002

137.95

163.34

170.20

53.78

2003

127.31

153.44

178.15

56.87

2004

129.79

149.13

171.38

56.87

2005

150.33

160.74

162.53

50.39

2006

123.14

145.89

151.42

45.17

2007

161.05

240.77

185.11

55.36

2008

170.90

145.12

243.31

44.93

2009

242.11

223.56

249.05

61.26
Port Administrator Office

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Indonesia

- Demogra,i dan konsumsi energi

Ukuran

Indonesia

% Dunia

Ranking Dunia

Pulau

17.480

Perairan/Laut

5,8 Juta km2

Daratan

1,9 Juta km2

1,3

16

Populasi 2010

236 Juta

3,41

GDP 2009

$ 540 Milyar

0,95

18

Listrik 2009

150 TWh

0,90

15

Energi 2009

150 MTOE

1,5

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Herman Darnel Ibrahim (DEN, 2011) dan Mukhtasor (DEN, 2011)

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SC Macro Process

Supplier

Firm

Customer

SRM

ISCM

CRM

Source

Strategic Planning

Market

Negotiate

Demand Planning

Sell

Buy

Supply Planning

Call Center

Design Collaboration

Fulfillment

Order Management

Supply Collaboration

Field Service

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Nature of Business
- B to B & B to C

Business to Business

Business to Customer

Product

Relatively technical

Standardized form

Promotion

Emphasis in personal selling

Emphasis on advertising

Distribution

Direct channel to market

Some to many intermediary


agents

Customer Relations

Relatively enduring and


complex

Relationship of relatively short


duration

Decision Making
Process

Diverse group makes decision

Individual or unit makes


decision

Price

Competitive bidding

List prices

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Supply Chain Management


Suppliers

Material
Costs

Plan
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Manufacturers

Warehouses &
Distribution Centers

Transporta<on
Transporta<on
Costs
Costs
Inventory
Manufacturing
Costs
Costs

Source

Make

Deliver

Customers

Transporta<on
Costs

Return

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SC
Intern.
GCM
ACP
Kageo
IGV

C
E
N
T
R
A
L
I
Z
E
D

P
R
O
C
U
R
E
M
E
N
T











Manufacturing

Non
Kalbe
Principals





P
P
I
C

G
R
O
U
P

Direct Delivery
PDA

Consolida<on Point
Delivery

Central
Database

Replenishment

Inventory Management
System Single Stock

EPM BRANCHES

S
U
P
P
L
I
E
R

RDC

Call
Center

Web Site

Salesman


Drug Store


Convenience

Shop


Pharmacy


Clinic


Wholesaler/PBF


Mini
Market

Tradi&onal Outlet

E
N
D

C
U
S
T
O
M
E
R


Hypermarket


Supermarket

Hospital

Modern Outlet

Call
Center

VMI
Web Site




Industry & Ins&tu&on


Direct Channel

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SC -

-Tin Chemicals

SC Feminine Wash
Feminine Wash, a France Company Brand
Main raw materials, imported from France
Bottles, local supplier
Packaging: global guide but locally modiXied and locally produced
Production: local facilities
Marketing & sales experts: local team
Marketing practice: locally developed strategy
Brand communication: developed by local ad-agency, advertisement
uses local-celebrity

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SC Feminine Wash

RM import hanya 3 jenis tapi dalam rupiah lebih dari 50% terhadap total harga
pokok
Lisensi dari perusahaan induk selama sekitar 10 tahun, pertimbangan semata-
mata memanfaatkan potensi tim lokal yang ada (dari segi SDM), sementara
dari segi pasar Feminine Wash termasuk masih sepi jadi potensi jadi brand
mapan relatif besar
Menggunakan distributor lokal dan hanya untuk pasar domestik karena di luar
negeri dipegang perusahaan induk
Cenderung ke pull karena produk premium yang perlu edukasi panjang
Growth per tahun sekitar 20%
COGS Semakin turun dengan bertambahnya volume dan menguatnya rupiah
Retur sangat kecil, retur dari toko langsung ke distributor dan kemudian di
klaim ke pabrik. Pabrik akan mengganti jika pengembalian tidak lebih dari 3
bulan setelah ED.


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Decision Phases in SC

Supply chain strategy or design


Supply chain planning
Supply chain operaBon
Key Point : Supply chain decision phases may be categorized as design, planning,
or operaJonal, depending on the Jme frame over which the decision
made in a given phase apply.

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Why is SC important?

Companies expand their SC


Distributor / Agent

CollaboraBon 3rd parBes

Other Providers

RegulaBon (tax-nancial)

New Markets

Cost Eciency

New Business
Sustainability on
Strategy and
CompeBBon
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Global Supply-Chain Issues

Supply chains in a global environment must be:


Flexible enough to react to sudden changes in parts
availability, distribution, or shipping channels,
import duties, and currency rates
Able to use the IT to schedule and manage the
shipment of parts in and Xinished products out
Staffed with local specialists to handle duties, trade,
freight, customs and political issues

The 7 Principles of SCM

Segment customer based on service needs

Customized your distributor

Listen to signals of market demand

Product closer to customer

Source strategically

Develop supporBng strategy

Performance measure

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Bullwhip Effects
Order
Size
Produc<on
Plan
Retailer
Orders
Customer
Demand

Distributor
Orders
Time

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Bullwhip Effects
- Customer`s View
Order
Size
Produc<on
Plan

Customer
Demand

Time
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What is the Bullwhip Effect?

Its the mess you just witnessed


Dramatic order size variation
AmpliXication of order size variation as one
moves up the supply chain
Effects
Long periods of stock-outs
Excessive build-up of inventory

Company Visit
- Production Line Unilever
Line balancing issue
Scheduling vs Demand Change issue
Breakdown and maintenance
Flexibility Process
Quality assurance and Quality control
Partnership to 3rd party
Environmental issues
Logistics etc

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Company Visit
- Hospital Service
Location and competition (other hospitals)
Differentiation of services
KPI and its measurement
Service quality Service perfect
Social and environmental issues
Complaint management
Quality assurance and quality control
Capacity and cost

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Forecast Accuracy
-OTC Product
Ex Dist Sales Botol ROFO Jan ROFO Feb ROFO Mar ROFO April ROFO MayROFO JuneROFO July ROFO Aug ROFO Sep ROFO Oct Total 9 months
Flu menthol 60 di APL March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Forecast
Actual
Actual VS Forecast

250,000 249,634 249,634 140,000 300,000 350,000 300,000 300,000 400,000 100,000
139,327 384,758 98,769 307,616 148,024 537,336 171,118 528,670 124,896 70,237
-44%
54%
-60%
120%
-51%
54%
-43%
76%
-69%
-30%

2,639,269
2,510,751
-5%

Ex Fact Botol
ROFO Jan ROFO Feb ROFO Mar ROFO April ROFO MayROFO JuneROFO July ROFO Aug ROFO Sep ROFO Oct Total 9 months
Flu menthol 60 di APL March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Forecast
Actual
Actual VS Forecast

220,000 260,000
587,664 57,599
167%
-78%

240,000
346,224 128,183
44%
#DIV/0!

260,000 325,000 335,000 275,000 450,000


74,256 872,638
(971) 396,896 164,609
-71%
169% -100%
44%
-63%

50,000
58,560
17%

2,415,000
2,685,658
11%

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Bullwhip OTC Product


- Fluktuasi konsumsi rendah

250.000

200.000

150.000

100.000

50.000

Jn

ec
D

ov
N

O
ct

Se

g
Au

Jl

Jn

M
ay

r
Ap

M
ar

b
Fe

20

08

Consump

Ex Dist

Ex Fact

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Bullwhip Effects
- Impacts

Performance Measure

Impact of Bullwhip Eect

Manufacturing cost

Increases

Inventory cost

Increases

Replenishment lead Jme

Increases

TransportaJon cost

Increases

Shipping and receiving cost

Increases

Level of product availability

Decreases

Protability

Decreases

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Bagaimana menghitung SL yg realis<s? (1)


1. Konsep Service Level
SeBap order sebesar Q, kemungkinan akan dipenuhi sebesar
Service Level (SL)
Sehingga dinyatakan hub: P[D Q] = SL
SL adalah besarnya kemungkinan dipenuhinya order yg
dipesan
Misal, berapa SL jika Qorder = 100, Qreal = 75 ? SL = 0,75
Sehingga seharusnya ada besaran SL yang terkait dengan
kemungkinan shortage (kekurangan)

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Bagaimana menghitung SL yg realis<s? (2)


2. Ti&k Se&mbang (Balance Point)
OpBmal SL= SL dg biaya minimal
Mis. Ce = Biaya kelebihan inventory = 1, Cs = Biaya
kekurangan inventory = 4:
Balance point at 4/5 = 80% SL* = Cs/(Cs+Ce)
= probabilitas opBmal dg pemenuhan dan kehilangan order
= opBmal SL
1
4
= 4/5 = 0.8
0.8
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Bagaimana menghitung SL yg realis<s? (3)

Jika ingin dihitung sejumlah Q, pada SL tertentu


Sehingga Q sejalan dengan P[DQ] = SL
Kondisi tsb berdistribusi normal, D ~ N(D , D2)

Q = D + Z SL D

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Bagaimana menghitung SL yg realis<s? (4)


Contoh perhitungan SL, BP dan Q
Cs = shortage cost/unit (e.g., gross margin) = $14.50
Ce = excess cost/unit (e.g., cost less mark down) =$5.00
D ~ N(1200, 130)
SL* = Cs/(Cs+Ce) = 14.5/(14.5 + 5) 0.743
Dari Tabel probabilitas, z0.74215 = 0.65
Q* = D + zSL* D

= 1200 + 0.65(130)
= 1,285
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Bagaimana menghitung SL yg realis<s? (5)


Op<mal base stock level S*
qPada kondisi uncertainty, LD = lead Jme demand (uncertain)
qS* akan terpenuhi sama dg P[LD S*] = SL* dimana SL* = Cs/
(Cs + Ce)
qMisal. LD ~ N(12000, 1000), Ce = 0.07, Cs = 0.08
qSL* = 0.08/(0.08+0.07) = 0.5333 & z0.53586 = 0.09
qS* = LD + zSL*(LD ) = 12000 + 0.09(1000) = 12,090

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Problem SC
- Solution

Integrasi Vertikal

Kolaborasi (supply-demand)
Keterbukaan (data, problem, solusi)

Inventory yg handal

Monitoring inventory balance (sangat sulit !!)

Buatlah shipping plan yg optimal


Lakukan partnership

Principal-Partner Bisnis-Konsumen

Tingkatkan akurasi forecasting

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SC Strategy

Responsive Supply
Chain

Responsiveness
Spectrum

Ecient Supply
Chain
Certain
Demand

Implied
Uncertainty
Spectrum

Uncertain
Demand

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Generic Strategy SC
- Ef,icient - Responsive
EfVicient Supply Chain

Responsive Supply Chain

Primary goal

Supply demand at the lowest cost

Respond quickly to demand

Product design

Maximize performance at a
minimum product cost

Create modularity to allow postpo-


nement of product differentiation

Pricing

Lower margins because price is a


prime customer driver

Higher margins because price is not


a prime customer driver

Manufacturing

Lower costs through high


utilization

Maintain capacity Xlexibility to buffer


againts demand/supply uncertainty

Inventory

Minimize inventory to lower cost

Maintain buffer inventory to deal


with demand/supply uncertainty

Lead time

Reduce but not at the expense of


cost

Supplier

Select based on cost and quality

Aggressively reduce even the costs


are signiXicant
Select based on speed, Xlexibility,
reliability, and quality

SC Strategy
- Implementation of Push and Pull System

Push

Pull

Objective

Minimize cost

Maximize service level

Complexity

High

Low

Focus

Resource allocation

Responsiveness

Lead Time

Long

Short

Processes

Supply chain planning

Order fulfillment

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SC Model
- Traditional Approach

Manufacturer
Buys
materials
Inventory risks
Warranty risk
Intangibles
Capital investment

Buys
finished
goods

Distributor

Sells
finished
goods

Customer

Inventory risk
Warranty risk
Intangibles
Pricing risk
Volume risk
Credit risk

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SC Model
- Contract Manufacturing / LRD* Models

Supplier
Sale

Make

Manufacturer

Principal

Sales price

Capital investment

Limited inventory risk

Customer

LRD
agreement

Warranty risk
Intangibles

Sale

LRD
Pricing risk (short-term)
Volume risk (short-term)

Inventory risks
Credit risk

Pricing risk (long-term)

Volume risk (long-term)

* Limited Risk Distributor


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Toller
- Commission Agent Models

Customer

Supplier
Sale

Commission

Make

Manufacturer

Capital investment

Commission
Agent

Principal
Service Fee

Arranges
sale

Agency Services

Warranty risk
Intangibles
Inventory risks
Credit risk
Pricing risk
Volume risk

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As is situation
- Partial collaboration SC

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To be situation
- Integrated SC

63

Design Options for a Distribution Network

Manufacturer storage with direct shipping


Manufacturer storage with direct shipping and in-
transit merge
Distributor storage with package carrier delivery
Distributor storage with last mile delivery
Manufacturer/distributor storage with customer
pickup
Retail storage with customer pickup

Manufacturer storage with direct shipping

Manufacturer

Retailer

Customer

Product flow

Information flow

Manufacturer storage with direct shipping and in-transit merge

Factories

In-Transit Merge by
Carrier

Retailer

Customer

Product flow

Information flow

Distributor storage with package carrier delivery


Factories

Warehouse Storage by
Distributor/ Retailer

Customer

Product flow

Information flow

Distributor storage with last mile delivery


Factories

Distributor/ Retailer
Warehouse

Customer

Product flow

Information flow

Manufacturer/distributor storage with


customer pickup
Factories

Cross Dock

Retailer

Pickup Sites

Customer
Product flow

Information flow

SC System
- Push and Pull System
Push-Based Supply Chain : production and distribution are based on
long term forecasts (e.g. inability to meet changing demand patterns,
obsolescence of supply chain inventory)

Pull-Based Supply Chain : production and distribution are driven so


that they are coordinated with true customer demand rather than forecast
demand

Push-Pull Supply Chain : some stages in supply chain are operated in


a push-based manner while the remaining stages employ a pull-based
strategy

SC Coordination

All stages of the chain take actions that increase total


profits.
A lack of coordination occurs either because different
SC stages objectives.
Object: Bullwhip Effect

SC Coordination
- Obstacles
Incentive obstacles: local optimization within function; sales force
incentives
Information processing obstacles: forecasting based on order and not
customer demand; lack of information sharing
Operational obstacles: ordering in large lots; large replenishment lead
times; rationing and shortage gaming
Pricing obstacles: lots size based quantity discounts; price fluctuations
Behavioral obstacles

SC Coordination
- Demand-driven Strategies

Demand forecast: a process in which historical demand data are


used to develop long-term estimates of expected demand, that is,
forecast
Demand shaping: a process in which the firm determines the
impact of various marketing plans such as promotion, pricing
discounts, rebates. New product introduction, and product
withdrawal on demand forecast

Global Supply-Chain
- Issues and Trends

Flexible enough to react to sudden changes in parts availability,


distribution, or shipping channels, import duties, and currency
rates
Able to use the latest computer and transmission technologies to
schedule and manage the shipment of parts in and finished
products out
Staffed with local specialists to handle duties, trade, freight,
customs and political issues

Supply-Chain Enterprise
- Development and Ful,illment

Plan/Design

Development S C

Source

Supply

Produce

Product Architecture
Make/Buy
Early Supplier Involvement

Strategic Partnerships
Suppliers Selection
Supply Contracts

Distribute

Sell

Fulfillment Supply Chain


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3rd PL

- Advantages & Disadvantages

Focus on core strengths: often difficult to be an expert in every facet


of the business, so that it allows a company to focus on its competencies.
Provides technological flexibility: better 3PL providers constantly
update their information technology and equipment
Provides other flexibilities: provide greater flexibility (geographic
location, service offerings, resource and workforce size)
Important disadvantages of 3PL: loss of control inherent in
outsourcing a particular function

Case: Dabbawallas

- Traditional Supply Chain in India

There is only 1 error in 1 million transaction


No technological back up (mostly illiterate)
Lowest cost of service : less than $ 10/month
No Strike record as each one a shareholder
ISO Certified

Documentaries made by BBC, MTV, UTV and ZEE TV


World Record in Best Time Management
Name in Guinness Book of World Record
Registered with Ripleys Believe It or Not

77

Mumbai (Suburban)
- Railway Network

Supply Chain
- Logistics Schedule Timeline

CodiVication System

Catatan Penting

Bisnis logis<k masih sangat terbuka


LPI perlu dicerma< untuk perbaikan (competence, interna<onal
shipments, tracking and tracing).
Sislognas dalam MP3EI pen<ng diterjemahkan dalam praktek
mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi
Tantangan global SCM
Model distribusi pen<ng dikembangkan
Starategi pengembangan SCM internal perusahaan.

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Contact: Adi Djoko Guritno, Ph.D,


adidjoko@tip-ugm.org ; adidjoko@pttimah.co.id
Mobile: 081-125-4285
Blog: http://adidjoko.wordpress.com

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