Beruflich Dokumente
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Foreign Exchange
Key FX Indicators
Majors
Prev
% Chg
Asian FX
Prev
% Chg
Close
Close
EUR/USD
1.3544
0.43
USD/SGD
1.2439
0.01
GBP/USD
1.5957
0.18
EUR/SGD
1.6822
-0.27
AUD/USD
0.9468
0.17
JPY/SGD
1.2670
0.42
NZD/USD
0.8322
0.47
GBP/SGD
1.9895
0.09
USD/JPY
98.58
0.43
AUD/SGD
1.1794
-0.03
EUR/JPY
133.51
0.60
NZD/SGD
1.0367
0.28
USD/CHF
0.9119
0.04
CHF/SGD
1.3628
-0.26
USD/MYR
3.1578
-0.71
SGD/MYR
2.5436
-0.38
USD/THB
31.28
0.00
SGD/IDR
8,783
-0.06
USD/IDR
10,904
-0.40
SGD/PHP
34.76
0.34
USD/PHP
43.15
0.00
SGD/CNY
4.9110
0.22
USD/CNY
6.1185
0.04
CNY/MYR
0.5175
-0.57
Maybank SGD NEER, Implied SGD/USD Estimates @ 17 Oct, 9.00AM
Upper Band Limit
1.2355
Mid-Point
1.2606
At last, a deal is reached to end the government shutdown and raise the
debt limit. Congressional Republicans conceded defeat on Wed. Senate
passed the shutdown deal with a 81-18 vote and the House is expected to
approve the plan soon before President Obama inks it into law. This deal
however, only buys the government more time with sufficient funding for
only up till 15 Jan and debt limit raised until 7 Feb. This could mean
another season of political wrangling in 1Q 2014. Nonetheless, relief was
evident amongst investors. DJI was up +1.4% by close. S&P 500 rallied in
sympathy, up +1.4% and NASDAQ trailed at +1.2%. 10-Year yields swung
to a high of 2.7563% at first before plunging to sub-2.66% at last sight
when it was clear that the Congressional Republican will not bar the plan
from going through.
This morning, ASX opened higher, along with Nikkei at +1.3% a hint of a
strong session for the rest of Asia. Kospi was up as well, at +0.5% at last
sight. USD/AXJs expect to start the day on a firmer footing but expect
gains to be capped by equity-related inflows amid the current buoyant
sentiments. Looking ahead, US Weekly initial claims will be out as
scheduled and we can expect a slew of US data releases (including NFP)
from its backlog once the government resumes business.
The DXY was still unable to sustain bids beyond the 80.684-resistance.
Overnight trade was undoubtedly choppy with the greenback on the slide in
Wed Asian hours. The index touched a high of 80.75 before tapering to
levels around 80.50 again. Markets were digesting the implications of the
latest debt deal and the resolution gives the Republicans and Democrats a
few more months to continue their debate. Uncertainty still clouds the
tapering horizon. Two-way action is likely to continue within the 80.2080.90 band.
USD/JPY bounced above the 98.70-resistance in early trade, on its way
towards the next resistance at 99.40. This hurdle should cap topsides for
today.
AUD/USD was resilient against dollar gains but the latter had clearly
slowed its attempt to take out the next resistance level at 0.9570. Last
sighted at 0.9558, expectations of the central bank to stand pat continue to
lend support to the domestic currency. Healthy economic data from China
also contributed to the bid tone in the pair. Thus, there is room for upsides
with the next hurdle seen at 0.9667. We are cautious however as we see a
bearish divergence forming on the MACD forest and a sharp correction
could be in-store for the pair. That said, we await bearish price patterns to
confirm a reversal.
EUR/USD was still steady, bouncing off its low of 1.3473 to trade around
1.3540. While 1.3568 is the interim resistance that caps topsides of recent
rangy moves, bias is tilting lower as the pair continues to gain bearish
momentum with firm support seen at 1.3460. Break of that level will shift
focus towards 1.3319.
Economic releases for today: EC ECB's Mersch Speaks in Luxembourg;
US Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Housing in Westlake, Ohio; US Federal
Reserve Releases Beige Book; US Fed's George Speaks on Fed
Centennial in Oklahoma City; US Fed's Fisher Speaks on Big Banks in
New York; JN Machine Tool Orders (% y/y) (Sep F); UK Retail Sales Ex
Auto (% m/m) (Sep) (Consensus: 0.50%): US Fed's Fisher to Speak to
Economic Club of New York; US Initial Jobless Claims (11-Oct); US
Housing Starts (Sep) (Consensus: 913K); US Fed to Purchase
USD2.75-3.50 Bln Notes; US CPI (% m/m) (Sep) (Consensus: 0.20%);
ADXY is on its way to revisit the high of 116.80 this morning. The index
now trades at 116.70, boosted by recent CNY strength. 116.12 is seen as
the support for the day. Equity-related inflows into the region will also
support the ADXY and a break of the barrier at 116.80 could shift focus
towards 117.20.
Economic data for Today: Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (Sep)
The SGD NEER trades 1.49% above the implied mid-point of 1.2606 with
the top end at 1.2355 and the floor at 1.2854. USD/SGD gained in the
morning following better-than-expected NODX data, dipping from 1.2445 to
1.2423 at last sight. Momentum is now mildly bearish, but might not be
sufficient to push the pair towards the 1.2400 region. We still look for the
pair to hover within 1.2408/1.2450 today.
Singapores NODX fell by a smaller 1.2% y/y in Sep compared to market
expectations for a 2.8% drop and vs. Augs -6.8%. Lackluster demand in
the G3 continued to depress NODX with electronics exports dipping by a
smaller 5.5% y/y (Aug: -9.2%) and pharmaceuticals by -39.3% y/y (Aug: 34.8%).
AUD/SGD is inching lower this morning at 1.1872 after rallying yesterday to
close at 1.1876, helped by the relative strength of the SGD. However, this
bearish undertone is likely to be short-lived as momentum remains robustly
bullish as indicated by MACD forest. Resistance is likely at1.1916 nearby
before 1.1934 with support at 1.1840 today. SGD/MYR gapped lower this
morning to 2.5415 from yesterdays close of 2.552 underpinned by MYR
strength overnight. Since then, the pair has returned some of its gains and
is currently sighted at 2.5446. With the bias still to the downside, we expect
support at 2.5374 today.
USD/MYR steadied around 3.1650 off its previous low of 3.1563 on Wed,
supported by overnight dollar gains. Bias remains to the downside with
support still seen at 3.1550 and we expect the upmove this morning to be
reversed. The 1-Month NDF slipped to levels around 3.1625 as we write,
from its open at3.1745.
USD/CNY was fixed higher at 6.1431 (+0.0023), vs. previous 6.1408
(+1.0% upper band limit: 6.2052; -1.0% lower band limit: 6.0823). Gap
between the lower bound of the trading band (6.0823) and spot prices
narrows further as spot drifted lower despite the higher fixing.1-Year NDF
steadied around 6.1500, off its earlier lows and underpinned by dollar
gains. Interim support is found at 6.1430. Recent interest in the CNY is
spurred when UK is allowed to participate in the RQFII with a quota of CNY
80bn. CNY/MYR was fixed at 0.5163 (-0.0017). Chinas Sep FDI is due
today. CSRC spurs procedural reforms for M&A and restructuring,
according to CSJ.
USD/IDR closed higher at 11195 from 10904 amid choppy trades.
Resolution to the US debt crisis and possibility of further delays to the Fed
QE tapering could see the pair move lower towards the 10800 level today.
Currently, the pair is sighted at 10950. Price action today is likely to see the
pair hover within the confines of 10800/11555 today. The 1-month remains
on the uptick, edging higher to 11029 this morning from 11020 yesterday,
while the JISDOR was fixed lower at 11316 yesterday from 11475 on Fri.
USD/PHP ended higher at 43.190 from 43.150 yesterday, but is edging
lower this morning following the aversion of a US debt default and the
likelihood that Fed tapering would be delayed. The pair is currently
hovering around 43.074 at last sight. The downward tilt is likely to be
temporary as MACD forest is indicating bullish momentum ahead. The pair
is likely to hover between We expect the pair to hover between
43.000/43.295 still today. The 1-month NDF is edging lower this morning at
42.900 from 42.95 yesterday. Philippines remittances rose by 6.8% y/y in
Aug, beating market estimates of 5.9% and Juls 6.6% growth. For the first
eight months of the year, remittances were up 5.9% y/y.
USD/THB continued on its downtick this morning not only on the US deal
to avert a default but also on the possibility that Fed tapering would be
delayed. The pair is now hovering around 31.177 at last sight. Waning
bullish momentum could see the pair headed towards 31.135 for support
before 31.070. Thailands economy is expected to expand by at least
3.0% in 3Q on the back of a rebound in exports. For the full-year, NESDB
expects real GDP growth to come in 3.8-4.3%. As expected, the BoT left its
benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, which it deemed as
appropriate to support the economy. The key risk faced by the economy is
the US debt default, but the central bank believes it has the tools to cope
with market volatility.
Page 1 of 5
Maybank GM Research
Fixed Income
Malaysia Rates Indicators
MGS
3YR MH 7/16
5YR MJ03/18
7YR ML 7/20
10YR MN323
15YR MS6/28
20YR MX 4/33
30YR MZ 9/43
IRS
6-months
9-months
1-year
3-year
5-year
7-year
10-year
* Below standard amount
Previous
Bus. Day
3.26
3.47
3.63
3.80
*4.25-20
*4.24
4.77
3.22
3.23
3.25
3.45
3.70
3.90
4.23
Change
(bps)
-5
-3
Not traded
-1
Not traded
-2
Not traded
-
Previous
Bus. Day
Yesterdays
Close
Change
(bp)
3YR
5YR
7YR
10YR
15YR
20YR
30YR
7.29
7.46
7.82
7.97
8.39
8.53
8.82
7.23
7.37
7.75
7.84
8.25
8.42
8.67
-6.3
-8.9
-7.5
-12.8
-14.0
-11.1
-14.6
17 October 2013
Page 2 of 5
Maybank GM Research
Tables
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
AUD/JPY
Second resistance
1.3623
99.39
0.9566
1.6135
0.9209
0.8455
134.34
94.81
First Resistance
1.3584
98.99
0.9517
1.6046
0.9164
0.8389
133.92
94.07
Current Spot
1.3542
98.70
0.9542
1.5975
0.9130
0.8433
133.65
94.18
First Support
1.3489
98.16
0.9459
1.5881
0.9086
0.8312
132.92
92.93
Second Support
1.3433
97.73
0.9450
1.5805
0.9053
0.8301
132.34
92.53
USD/SGD
USD/MYR
USD/IDR
USD/PHP
USD/THB
EUR/SGD
CNY/MYR
SGD/MYR
Second resistance
1.2490
3.1816
11494
43.320
31.37
1.6926
0.5216
2.5611
First Resistance
1.2465
3.1697
11199
43.235
31.33
1.6874
0.5195
2.5524
Current Spot
1.2436
3.1641
10975
43.085
31.15
1.6840
0.5189
2.5449
First Support
1.2414
3.1557
10758
43.070
31.23
1.6773
0.5171
2.5410
Second Support
1.2388
3.1536
10612
42.990
31.17
1.6724
0.5167
2.5383
*Values calculated based on pivots, a formula that projects support/resistance for the day
Policy Rates
0.3936
3.00
7.25
2.50
3.50
1.875
0.50
6.00
0.25
MB Fcst
(%)
3
7.25
2.5
3.5
1.875
0.5
6
0.25
0.50
7-Nov
0.5
0.50
2.50
2.50
7-Nov
5-Nov
31-Oct
0.5
2.50
2.5
Current (%)
17 October 2013
Rates
Indicators
Dow
Nasdaq
Nikkei 225
FTSE
Singapore Straits Times
Kuala Lumpur Composite
Jakarta Composite
Philippines Composite
Taiwan TAIEX
Hong Kong Hang Seng
Nymex Crude Oil WTI
Comex Gold
Reuters CRB Index
MBB KL
Value
15,168.01
3,794.01
14,441.54
6,549.11
3,165.25
1,784.76
4,519.91
6,442.70
8,367.88
23,336.52
101.21
1,273.20
286.31
10.00
% Change
-0.87
-0.56
0.26
0.64
-0.45
-0.06
0.74
-0.73
1.14
0.51
-1.17
-0.27
-0.10
0.00
Page 3 of 5
Maybank GM Research
MYR Bonds Trades Details
MGS & GII
MGS 4/2009 3.741% 27.02.2015
MGS 3/2012 3.197% 15.10.2015
MGS 1/2013 3.172% 15.07.2016
MGS 1/2006 4.262% 15.09.2016
MGS 2/2010 4.012% 15.09.2017
MGS 5/2012 3.314% 31.10.2017
MGS 2/2003 4.24000% 07.02.2018
MGS 2/2013 3.260% 01.03.2018
MGS 5/2011 3.580% 28.09.2018
MGS 2/2009 4.378% 29.11.2019
MGS 6/2012 3.492% 31.03.2020
MGS 1/2011 4.16% 15.07.2021
MGS 3/2013 3.480% 15.03.2023
MGS 3/2011 4.392% 15.04.2026
MGS 4/2013 3.844% 15.04.2033
PROFIT-BASED GII 4/2009 31.07.2014
PROFIT-BASED GII 2/2011 30.09.2014
PROFIT-BASED GII 3/2009 30.12.2014
PROFIT-BASED GII 1/2011 30.08.2018
PROFIT-BASED GII 3/2012 30.09.2019
Total
PDS
CAGAMAS IMTN 3.300% 23.12.2013
CAGAMAS IMTN 4.000% 04.03.2014
CAGAMAS IMTN 4.660% 28.03.2014
SENARI IMTN 4.170% 31.07.2015
BPMB IMTN 0% 25.04.2016 - MTN 1
PLUS BERHAD IMTN 4.720% 12.01.2026 - Series 1 (10)
TTPC IMTN 4.590% 29.01.2021 - Series 15
PUBLIC SUB-NOTES 4.80% 25.9.2023
DBK IMTN 5.500% 03.08.2017
TANJUNG BP IMTN 4.660% 14.08.2020
PBFIN 7.500% 05.06.2059 - Tranche No.1
JEV IMTN 0% 12.05.2017
JEV IMTN 0% 11.05.2018
JEV IMTN 0% 12.11.2020
JEV IMTN 0% 12.05.2021
JEV IMTN 0% 11.11.2022
JEV IMTN 0% 12.05.2023
TBEI IMTN 5.950% 14.09.2029
Total
Coupon
3.741%
3.197%
3.172%
4.262%
4.012%
3.314%
4.240%
3.260%
3.580%
4.378%
3.492%
4.160%
3.480%
4.392%
3.844%
3.909%
3.505%
3.902%
3.872%
3.704%
Rating
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA IS
(FG)
AAA
AAA IS
AA1
AA1
AA2
AA2
AA2
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
Maturity Date
27-Feb-15
15-Oct-15
15-Jul-16
15-Sep-16
15-Sep-17
31-Oct-17
07-Feb-18
01-Mar-18
28-Sep-18
29-Nov-19
31-Mar-20
15-Jul-21
15-Mar-23
15-Apr-26
15-Apr-33
31-Jul-14
30-Sep-14
30-Dec-14
30-Aug-18
30-Sep-19
Volume
(RM m)
1
32
739
165
148
210
23
80
8
42
27
7
7
4
9
240
101
200
160
240
2,443
3.300%
4.000%
4.660%
Maturity
Date
23-Dec-13
04-Mar-14
28-Mar-14
4.170%
5.700%
4.720%
4.590%
4.800%
5.500%
4.660%
7.500%
8.550%
8.750%
9.050%
9.400%
9.550%
9.600%
5.950%
31-Jul-15
25-Apr-16
12-Jan-26
29-Jan-21
25-Sep-23
03-Aug-17
14-Aug-20
05-Jun-59
12-May-17
11-May-18
12-Nov-20
12-May-21
11-Nov-22
12-May-23
14-Sep-29
Coupon
Last Done
2.98
2.94
3.18
3.24
3.47
3.46
3.48
3.44
3.58
3.62
3.62
3.75
3.76
4.03
4.22
3.03
3.07
3.06
3.65
3.75
Volume
(RM m)
20
55
25
5
10
2
5
1
20
25
0
11
5
15
15
15
15
1
245
Day High
2.98
2.98
3.24
3.26
3.47
3.46
3.5
3.45
3.58
3.65
3.65
3.75
3.79
4.03
4.22
3.03
3.07
3.07
3.65
3.75
Day Low
2.98
2.92
3.18
3.22
3.47
3.46
3.48
3.44
3.58
3.62
3.62
3.74
3.76
4.01
4.22
3.03
3.07
3.06
3.65
3.75
Last
Done
3.04
3.26
3.27
Day
High
3.04
3.26
3.27
Day
Low
3.04
3.26
3.27
3.78
3.74
4.64
4.22
4.33
5.5
4.22
4.68
4.17
4.3
4.6
4.64
4.81
4.86
5.08
3.78
3.74
4.64
4.22
4.33
5.5
4.22
4.68
4.17
4.3
4.61
4.64
4.81
4.86
5.08
3.78
3.74
4.64
4.22
4.33
5.5
4.22
4.68
4.17
4.3
4.6
4.64
4.81
4.86
5.08
Source: BPAM
17 October 2013
Page 4 of 5
Maybank GM Research
Disclaimer
This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an
offer to buy the securities or financial instruments referred to herein, or an offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt
any investment strategy. Investors should note that income from such securities or financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that each
securitys or financial instruments price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past
performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take
into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report.
Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities and/or financial
instruments or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by
Malayan Banking Berhad and/or its affiliates and related corporations (collectively, Maybank) and consequently no representation is made as to
the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any
direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank and its officers, directors,
associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities and/or financial
instruments referred to herein and may further act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities
and/or financial instruments and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory and other services for or relating to those
companies whose securities are mentioned in this report. Any information or opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change
at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as anticipate, believe,
estimate, intend, plan, expect, forecast, predict and project and statements that an event or result may, will, can, should, could or
might occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information
currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those
expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward looking statements. Maybank
expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after
the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
This report is prepared for the use of Maybanks clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any
other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank. Maybank accepts no liability whatsoever
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This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality,
state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
Published by:
Fixed Income
Malaysia
Winson Phoon Wai Kien
Fixed Income Analyst
winsonphoon@maybank-ib.com
(+60) 3 20747176
Sales
Malaysia
Md. Farid Kairi
Head of Sales, Malaysia
mdfarid.k@maybank.com.my
(+60) 3 27869111, (+60) 17 6719185
Leslie Tang
Senior FX Analyst
leslietang@maybank.com.sg
(+65) 63201378
Indonesia
Juniman
Chief Economist, Indonesia
juniman@bankbii.com
(+62) 21 29228888 ext 29682
Singapore
Chan Wai Fong
Head of Sales, Singapore
wfchan@maybank.com.sg
(+65) 63201331, (+65) 93835876
Anup Kumar
Financial Analyst Manager
akumar@bankbii.com
(+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29602
Indonesia
Oki Haridadi H
Head of Sales, Indonesia
Fiona Lim
FX Analyst
Fionalim@maybank.com.sg
(+65) 63201374
Josua Pardede
Economist / Industry Analyst
(+62) 21 29228888 ext 29695
17 October 2013
Page 5 of 5