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ARIZONA

In Arizona, interviews with 1,003 adult Americans conducted by


telephone by ORC International on August 18-23, 2016. The margin of
sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3
percentage points.
The Arizona sample also includes 842 interviews among registered
voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) and 809 interviews among
likely voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points).
In Arizona, 603 interviews were conducted among landline respondents
and 400 interviews among cell phone respondents.

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:


Wednesday, August 24 at 4:00 p.m.

BASED ON 833 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 9 WHO PLAN TO REGISTER, FOR A TOTAL OF
842 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
Q1. (P1) Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between
Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Partys candidates, and Donald Trump and
Mike Pence as the Republican Partys candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for?
(RANDOM ORDER)
Q1a. (P1a.) (IF NEITHER OR DONT KNOW) As of today, do you lean more toward --?
Clinton/
Kaine

Trump/
Pence

Other
(vol.)

Neither
(vol.)

No
opinion

Registered voters
August 18-23, 2016

44%

49%

2%

5%

Likely voters
August 18-23, 2016

44%

49%

2%

5%

Q1. (P1) Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between
Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Partys candidates, and Donald Trump and
Mike Pence as the Republican Partys candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for?
(RANDOM ORDER)
Q1a. (P1a) (IF NEITHER OR DONT KNOW) As of today, do you lean more toward --?
Q2. (P2) Is your mind made up about who you will vote for, or is it possible you would change your
mind?
Aug 18-23
2016
Clinton, mind made up
Clinton, could change mind
Trump, mind made up
Trump, could change mind
Other, mind made up
Other, could change mind
Neither
No opinion

POLL AZ1
3

36%
8%
39%
9%
1%
1%
5%
*

-2-

August 18-23, 2016

BASED ON 833 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 9 WHO PLAN TO REGISTER, FOR A TOTAL OF
842 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
Q3. (P5) Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Hillary
Clinton as the Democratic Partys candidate, Donald Trump as the Republican Partys
candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party
candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? (RANDOM ORDER)
Q3a. (P5a) (IF NONE OR DONT KNOW) As of today, do you lean more toward --?
RV
Aug 18-23
2016

LV
Aug 18-23
2016

38%
43%
12%
4%
2%
1%
*

38%
45%
12%
4%
1%
1%
*

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, the Green party candidate
None (vol.)
Other (vol.)
No opinion

Q4. (S1) If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Ann Kirkpatrick, the
Democrat and John McCain, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for ---?
(RANDOM ORDER)
Q4a. (S1a) (IF NEITHER OR DONT KNOW) As of today, do you lean more toward --?
Kirkpatrick

McCain

Other
(vol.)

Registered Voters
August 18-23, 2016

39%

52%

2%

5%

2%

Likely Voters
August 18-23, 2016

39%

52%

2%

5%

2%

POLL AZ1
3

-3-

Neither
(vol.)

No
opinion

August 18-23, 2016

809 LIKELY VOTERS -- (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3.5% PTS.);


842 REGISTERED VOTERS -- (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3.5% PTS.)
Q5. (A1) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

All Respondents
Aug. 18-23, 2016

48%

46%

5%

Registered Voters
Aug. 18-23, 2016

46%

51%

3%

Likely Voters
Aug. 18-23, 2016

46%

51%

3%

POLL AZ1
3

-4-

August 18-23, 2016

BASED ON 833 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 9 WHO PLAN TO REGISTER, FOR A TOTAL OF
842 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
Q6. (P7) Now Im going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle that issue if they were elected President?
(RANDOM ORDER)
No
Clinton
Trump
Neither (vol.) opinion
The economy
Aug. 18-23, 2016

42%

54%

3%

1%

Foreign policy
Aug. 18-23, 2016

53%

42%

4%

1%

Immigration
Aug. 18-23, 2016

45%

51%

3%

Terrorism
Aug. 18-23, 2016

43%

51%

5%

Health care
Aug. 18-23, 2016

46%

49%

5%

1%

Q7. (P8) Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each
one applies more to Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Please feel free to name a candidate
even if you may not support him or her. (RANDOM ORDER)
Clinton

Trump

Both
(vol.)

Neither
(vol.)

No
opinion

Shares your values


Aug. 18-23, 2016

43%

44%

1%

10%

1%

Can handle the responsibilities


of commander in chief
Aug. 18-23, 2016

49%

44%

1%

5%

1%

Is more honest and trustworthy


Aug. 18-23, 2016

33%

49%

1%

16%

POLL AZ1
3

-5-

August 18-23, 2016

BASED ON 413 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS -- (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5%


PTS.)
Q8. (R4) If the Republican Senate primary in Arizona were held today, please tell me which of the
following people you would be most likely to support. (RANDOM ORDER)
Aug 18-23
2016
John McCain
Kelli Ward
Clair Van Steenwyk
Other (vol.)
Neither (vol.)
No opinion

POLL AZ1
3

55%
29%
4%
1%
7%
3%

-6-

August 18-23, 2016

METHODOLOGY
A total of 1,003 Arizona adults were interviewed by telephone statewide by live interviewers calling both landline and
cellphones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, depending upon the respondents preference. All
respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide
Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state.
This sample includes 603 interviews among landline respondents and 400 interviews among cell phone respondents.
Respondents were asked questions about whether they are registered to vote, their likelihood of voting, past voting
behavior, and interest in the campaign. Based on the answers to those questions, 809 respondents were classified as likely
voters. Among those likely voters, 218 described themselves as Democrats, 312 described themselves as Independents, and
279 described themselves as Republicans
The Arizona regions are composed of the following counties: the "Maricopa" region is composed of Maricopa county; the
"Pima" region is composed of Pima county; the "Rest of the State" region is composed of Apache, Cochise, Coconino, Gila,
Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Santa Cruz, Yavapai and Yuma counties.
Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling
error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the population of Arizona to
produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups but results for
groups with a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed.

POLL AZ1
3

-7-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P1
Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Hillary
Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party's candidates, and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the
Republican Party's candidates.
Who would you be more likely to vote for?
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton and Kaine, Dem


Trump and Pence, GOPs
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------43%
39%
47%
36%
45%
49%
41%
53%
1%
2%
1%
2%
8%
9%
8%
7%
2%
2%
2%
2%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton and Kaine, Dem


Trump and Pence, GOPs
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----43%
45%
1%
8%
2%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

5064
----37%
56%
1%
4%
2%
+/-6.0

65+
----42%
52%
*
5%
1%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----50%
32%
2%
13%
3%
+/-8.5

Non
College
Grad
-------41%
48%
2%
7%
2%
+/-4.5

Clinton and Kaine, Dem


Trump and Pence, GOPs
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----43%
45%
1%
8%
2%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----94%
3%
*
3%
*
+/-6.5

Total
----43%
45%
1%
8%
2%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------40%
55%
44%
49%
39%
46%
36%
50%
37%
50%
1%
3%
1%
3%
*
10%
6%
4%
9%
10%
2%
*
2%
3%
1%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----43%
45%
1%
8%
2%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----98%
*
31%
1%
94%
25%
*
1%
5%
*
3%
36%
1%
2%
3%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----36%
45%
2%
14%
3%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----6%
85%
2%
5%
2%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----79%
6%
1%
8%
5%
+/-7.5

Moderate
----54%
36%
*
8%
1%
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----28%
51%
64%
35%
1%
2%
6%
9%
2%
2%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----36%
52%
2%
7%
3%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----39%
53%
1%
5%
1%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------31%
58%
3%
7%
2%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------45%
44%
1%
9%
1%
+/-5.5

Clinton and Kaine, Dem


Trump and Pence, GOPs
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton and Kaine, Dem


Trump and Pence, GOPs
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------48%
40%
*
10%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
35%
N/A
54%
N/A
2%
N/A
8%
N/A
1%
+/-5.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------43%
43%
45%
43%
1%
2%
8%
10%
2%
2%
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Clinton and Kaine, Dem


Trump and Pence, GOPs
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------44%
46%
1%
8%
1%
+/-4.5

Non-White
--------62%
27%
*
9%
3%
+/-7.5

Conservative
------14%
75%
2%
8%
1%
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----29%
35%
47%
61%
56%
41%
1%
1%
1%
7%
7%
9%
1%
1%
2%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-8-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P1/P1A
P1. Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to
choose between Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party's candidates,
and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would
you be more likely to vote for?
P1A. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------44%
40%
48%
36%
49%
53%
45%
57%
2%
2%
2%
2%
5%
5%
5%
4%
*
1%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----44%
49%
2%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Under
Total
$50K
--------44%
43%
49%
48%
2%
3%
5%
6%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

$50K
or more
------45%
48%
1%
5%
*
+/-4.5

Non-White
--------64%
28%
*
7%
1%
+/-7.5

5064
----37%
58%
1%
3%
1%
+/-6.0

College
Grad
------49%
42%
1%
7%
1%
+/-5.0

65+
----43%
53%
1%
3%
*
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
36%
N/A
57%
N/A
2%
N/A
5%
N/A
*
+/-5.5
Under
45
----52%
38%
3%
8%
*
+/-8.5

Non
College
Grad
-------42%
52%
2%
4%
*
+/-4.5

White
Women
-----36%
57%
3%
4%
*
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----39%
55%
1%
4%
*
+/-3.5

White
College
Grad
------45%
46%
2%
6%
*
+/-5.5

White
Non
College
Grad
-------31%
63%
3%
3%
*
+/-5.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-9-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P1/P1A
P1. Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to
choose between Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party's candidates,
and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would
you be more likely to vote for?
P1A. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----44%
49%
2%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Democrat
----95%
3%
*
1%
*
+/-6.5

Independent
-----38%
50%
3%
9%
*
+/-5.5

Republican
-----6%
88%
2%
4%
1%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----83%
10%
3%
4%
*
+/-7.5

Moderate
----55%
38%
1%
6%
*
+/-5.5

Total
----44%
49%
2%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------42%
55%
44%
51%
39%
50%
39%
51%
41%
53%
2%
3%
1%
3%
*
6%
3%
5%
5%
6%
*
*
*
*
*
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----44%
49%
2%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----99%
*
34%
1%
98%
33%
*
1%
7%
*
1%
25%
*
*
*
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----28%
53%
66%
39%
1%
2%
5%
6%
*
*
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

Conservative
------14%
79%
2%
5%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----31%
36%
49%
64%
58%
44%
1%
1%
2%
4%
5%
5%
*
*
*
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-10-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P1/P1A
P1. Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to
choose between Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party's candidates,
and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would
you be more likely to vote for?
P1A. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Likely voters

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------44%
40%
47%
36%
49%
53%
46%
58%
2%
2%
2%
3%
5%
5%
5%
4%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-5.0 +/-4.0

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----44%
49%
2%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Under
Total
$50K
--------44%
43%
49%
48%
2%
3%
5%
6%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-6.5

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

$50K
or more
------44%
50%
1%
5%
*
+/-4.5

Non-White
--------66%
27%
*
7%
1%
+/-7.5

5064
----36%
60%
1%
3%
1%
+/-6.0

College
Grad
------48%
43%
2%
7%
1%
+/-5.0

65+
----43%
53%
1%
3%
*
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
35%
N/A
58%
N/A
2%
N/A
4%
N/A
*
+/-5.5
Under
45
----52%
38%
3%
8%
*
+/-8.5

Non
College
Grad
-------42%
52%
2%
4%
*
+/-4.5

White
Women
-----36%
57%
3%
4%
*
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----39%
56%
1%
3%
*
+/-4.0

White
College
Grad
------44%
48%
2%
6%
*
+/-5.5

White
Non
College
Grad
-------32%
63%
3%
3%
*
+/-5.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-11-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P1/P1A
P1. Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to
choose between Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party's candidates,
and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would
you be more likely to vote for?
P1A. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Likely voters

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton/Kaine
Trump/Pence
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----44%
49%
2%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Democrat
----97%
2%
*
1%
*
+/-6.5

Independent
-----37%
51%
3%
8%
*
+/-5.5

Republican
-----6%
88%
2%
4%
1%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----88%
4%
3%
5%
*
+/-8.0

Moderate
----53%
39%
1%
6%
1%
+/-6.0

Total
----44%
49%
2%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------42%
55%
40%
52%
39%
50%
39%
55%
40%
55%
2%
3%
1%
4%
*
5%
3%
4%
5%
6%
*
*
*
*
*
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----44%
49%
2%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----99%
*
35%
*
98%
32%
*
1%
9%
*
1%
24%
1%
*
*
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----28%
53%
67%
39%
1%
2%
4%
5%
*
*
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

Conservative
------14%
80%
2%
4%
*
+/-5.5

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----31%
36%
48%
65%
59%
45%
1%
1%
2%
2%
4%
5%
*
*
*
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-12-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P1/P1A/P2
P1. Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to
choose between Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party's candidates,
and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would
you be more likely to vote for?
P1A. As of today, do you lean more toward...
P2. Is your mind made up about who you will vote for, or is it possible you would
change your mind?
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton/Kaine-made up
Clinton/Kaine-could change
Trump/Pence-made up
Trump/Pence-could change
Other-made up
Other-could change
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------36%
33%
39%
30%
8%
7%
9%
6%
39%
40%
38%
47%
9%
12%
7%
10%
1%
1%
*
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
5%
5%
5%
4%
*
1%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton/Kaine-made up
Clinton/Kaine-could change
Trump/Pence-made up
Trump/Pence-could change
Other-made up
Other-could change
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----36%
8%
39%
9%
1%
1%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton/Kaine-made up
Clinton/Kaine-could change
Trump/Pence-made up
Trump/Pence-could change
Other-made up
Other-could change
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Under
Total
$50K
--------36%
37%
8%
7%
39%
39%
9%
9%
1%
1%
1%
2%
5%
6%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

$50K
or more
------36%
9%
40%
8%
1%
1%
5%
*
+/-4.5

Non-White
--------52%
13%
21%
8%
*
*
7%
1%
+/-7.5

5064
----34%
3%
52%
6%
*
1%
3%
1%
+/-6.0

College
Grad
------40%
8%
33%
9%
*
1%
7%
1%
+/-5.0

65+
----36%
6%
47%
6%
1%
*
3%
*
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
31%
N/A
4%
N/A
45%
N/A
12%
N/A
1%
N/A
1%
N/A
5%
N/A
*
+/-5.5
Under
45
----40%
12%
24%
14%
1%
2%
8%
*
+/-8.5

Non
College
Grad
-------34%
8%
42%
10%
1%
1%
4%
*
+/-4.5

White
Women
-----27%
9%
49%
8%
*
2%
4%
*
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----34%
5%
49%
7%
*
1%
4%
*
+/-3.5

White
College
Grad
------36%
9%
37%
9%
*
1%
6%
*
+/-5.5

White
Non
College
Grad
-------26%
5%
52%
11%
1%
2%
3%
*
+/-5.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-13-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P1/P1A/P2
P1. Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to
choose between Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party's candidates,
and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would
you be more likely to vote for?
P1A. As of today, do you lean more toward...
P2. Is your mind made up about who you will vote for, or is it possible you would
change your mind?
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton/Kaine-made up
Clinton/Kaine-could change
Trump/Pence-made up
Trump/Pence-could change
Other-made up
Other-could change
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton/Kaine-made up
Clinton/Kaine-could change
Trump/Pence-made up
Trump/Pence-could change
Other-made up
Other-could change
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton/Kaine-made up
Clinton/Kaine-could change
Trump/Pence-made up
Trump/Pence-could change
Other-made up
Other-could change
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----36%
8%
39%
9%
1%
1%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Democrat
----83%
12%
1%
2%
*
*
1%
*
+/-6.5

Independent
-----28%
9%
35%
15%
1%
2%
9%
*
+/-5.5

Republican
-----4%
2%
79%
9%
*
1%
4%
1%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----75%
8%
9%
1%
1%
2%
4%
*
+/-7.5

Moderate
----41%
14%
28%
10%
1%
*
6%
*
+/-5.5

Total
----36%
8%
39%
9%
1%
1%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------35%
45%
33%
40%
36%
7%
9%
11%
11%
3%
40%
33%
41%
31%
45%
10%
5%
10%
10%
8%
1%
*
1%
1%
*
1%
3%
*
2%
*
6%
3%
5%
5%
6%
*
*
*
*
*
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----36%
8%
39%
9%
1%
1%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----86%
*
18%
13%
*
16%
*
86%
12%
1%
12%
21%
*
*
3%
*
1%
4%
*
1%
25%
*
*
*
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----23%
43%
5%
10%
55%
31%
11%
8%
*
1%
1%
1%
5%
6%
*
*
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

Conservative
------12%
2%
66%
13%
*
2%
5%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----27%
31%
40%
3%
5%
9%
54%
48%
35%
10%
10%
9%
1%
1%
1%
*
1%
1%
4%
5%
5%
*
*
*
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-14-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P5
Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state
included Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party's candidate, Donald Trump as
the Republican Party's candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party
candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party candidate, who would you be more
likely to vote for?
Base = Registered Voters
Total
Men
Women
White
----------------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
38%
36%
39%
31%
Donald Trump, the Republican
41%
41%
41%
50%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
12%
13%
10%
12%
Jill Stein, Green party
4%
5%
3%
3%
None of the above
3%
3%
3%
2%
Other
1%
1%
1%
1%
No opinion
2%
2%
2%
1%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0
Total
----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
38%
Donald Trump, the Republican
41%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
12%
Jill Stein, Green party
4%
None of the above
3%
Other
1%
No opinion
2%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Under
Total
$50K
--------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
38%
37%
Donald Trump, the Republican
41%
40%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
12%
13%
Jill Stein, Green party
4%
5%
None of the above
3%
3%
Other
1%
1%
No opinion
2%
1%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

$50K
or more
------39%
42%
12%
2%
3%
1%
2%
+/-4.5

Non-White
--------54%
20%
11%
6%
4%
1%
4%
+/-7.5

5064
----35%
54%
5%
1%
2%
1%
1%
+/-6.0

College
Grad
------41%
35%
17%
1%
4%
1%
1%
+/-5.0

65+
----37%
49%
6%
3%
5%
*
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
30%
N/A
47%
N/A
14%
N/A
4%
N/A
2%
N/A
1%
N/A
1%
+/-5.5
Under
45
----42%
26%
20%
5%
2%
1%
4%
+/-8.5

Non
College
Grad
-------36%
44%
9%
5%
3%
1%
2%
+/-4.5

White
Women
-----30%
53%
9%
3%
4%
1%
1%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----34%
51%
7%
3%
4%
1%
1%
+/-3.5

White
College
Grad
------38%
39%
18%
1%
3%
*
1%
+/-5.5

White
Non
College
Grad
-------27%
56%
9%
4%
2%
1%
1%
+/-5.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-15-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P5
Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state
included Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party's candidate, Donald Trump as
the Republican Party's candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party
candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party candidate, who would you be more
likely to vote for?
Base = Registered Voters
Total
----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
38%
Donald Trump, the Republican
41%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
12%
Jill Stein, Green party
4%
None of the above
3%
Other
1%
No opinion
2%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5

Democrat
----89%
2%
4%
4%
2%
*
*
+/-6.5

Independent
-----27%
40%
18%
6%
4%
1%
4%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----5%
80%
10%
1%
3%
1%
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----74%
8%
5%
11%
*
*
1%
+/-7.5

Moderate
----45%
31%
16%
3%
3%
1%
1%
+/-5.5

Total
----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
38%
Donald Trump, the Republican
41%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
12%
Jill Stein, Green party
4%
None of the above
3%
Other
1%
No opinion
2%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------37%
48%
33%
43%
34%
41%
35%
47%
31%
47%
12%
6%
13%
15%
8%
3%
7%
3%
4%
5%
4%
1%
3%
4%
2%
1%
3%
*
1%
1%
3%
*
*
2%
3%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
38%
Donald Trump, the Republican
41%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
12%
Jill Stein, Green party
4%
None of the above
3%
Other
1%
No opinion
2%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----99%
*
*
*
97%
*
*
*
60%
*
*
20%
1%
2%
9%
*
*
4%
*
1%
6%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----26%
44%
58%
32%
9%
13%
2%
5%
2%
4%
2%
*
2%
2%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

Conservative
------12%
68%
11%
1%
4%
1%
3%
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----24%
30%
42%
59%
51%
37%
7%
10%
12%
4%
2%
5%
5%
4%
2%
*
*
1%
1%
2%
1%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-16-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P5/P5A
P5. Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state
included Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party's candidate, Donald Trump as
the Republican Party's candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party
candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party candidate, who would you be more
likely to vote for?
P5a. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------38%
37%
39%
31%
43%
42%
43%
52%
12%
14%
10%
12%
4%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----38%
43%
12%
4%
2%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Under
Total
$50K
--------38%
37%
43%
42%
12%
13%
4%
5%
2%
2%
1%
1%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

$50K
or more
------39%
43%
12%
2%
2%
1%
*
+/-4.5

Non-White
--------56%
21%
13%
6%
4%
1%
*
+/-7.5

5064
----35%
56%
5%
1%
1%
1%
*
+/-6.0

College
Grad
------42%
37%
17%
1%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.0

65+
----38%
50%
6%
3%
3%
*
*
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
30%
N/A
49%
N/A
14%
N/A
4%
N/A
1%
N/A
1%
N/A
*
+/-5.5
Under
45
----42%
28%
22%
6%
1%
1%
*
+/-8.5

Non
College
Grad
-------36%
45%
10%
6%
2%
1%
*
+/-4.5

White
Women
-----30%
55%
9%
3%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----35%
52%
7%
3%
2%
1%
*
+/-3.5

White
College
Grad
------39%
41%
18%
1%
1%
*
*
+/-5.5

White
Non
College
Grad
-------27%
57%
9%
4%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-17-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P5/P5A
P5. Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state
included Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party's candidate, Donald Trump as
the Republican Party's candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party
candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party candidate, who would you be more
likely to vote for?
P5a. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----38%
43%
12%
4%
2%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Democrat
----90%
2%
4%
4%
1%
*
*
+/-6.5

Independent
-----27%
41%
20%
7%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Republican
-----5%
82%
10%
1%
2%
1%
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----74%
8%
5%
13%
*
*
*
+/-7.5

Moderate
----45%
31%
17%
3%
3%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Total
----38%
43%
12%
4%
2%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------37%
48%
34%
44%
35%
43%
36%
47%
33%
48%
13%
6%
13%
15%
9%
4%
7%
3%
4%
6%
2%
*
3%
2%
2%
1%
3%
*
1%
1%
*
*
*
*
*
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----38%
43%
12%
4%
2%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----100%
*
*
*
100%
*
*
*
63%
*
*
22%
*
*
11%
*
*
4%
*
*
*
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----26%
45%
59%
34%
10%
13%
2%
5%
2%
2%
2%
*
*
*
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

Conservative
------12%
72%
12%
1%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----27%
31%
42%
60%
52%
38%
7%
12%
12%
4%
2%
5%
2%
3%
1%
*
*
1%
*
*
*
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-18-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P5/P5A
P5. Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state
included Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party's candidate, Donald Trump as
the Republican Party's candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party
candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party candidate, who would you be more
likely to vote for?
P5a. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Likely Voters

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------38%
36%
39%
31%
45%
44%
45%
53%
12%
13%
10%
11%
4%
4%
4%
3%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-5.0 +/-4.0

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----38%
45%
12%
4%
1%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Under
Total
$50K
--------38%
36%
45%
43%
12%
13%
4%
5%
1%
2%
1%
1%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-6.5

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

$50K
or more
------40%
44%
12%
3%
1%
1%
*
+/-4.5

Non-White
--------55%
22%
12%
7%
3%
1%
*
+/-7.5

5064
----34%
58%
6%
1%
1%
1%
*
+/-6.0

College
Grad
------42%
38%
15%
1%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.0

65+
----39%
51%
6%
3%
2%
*
*
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
30%
N/A
50%
N/A
14%
N/A
4%
N/A
*
N/A
1%
N/A
*
+/-5.5
Under
45
----42%
28%
22%
6%
1%
1%
*
+/-8.5

Non
College
Grad
-------35%
47%
10%
5%
1%
1%
*
+/-4.5

White
Women
-----31%
56%
8%
3%
1%
1%
*
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----35%
54%
6%
3%
2%
*
*
+/-4.0

White
College
Grad
------39%
43%
16%
1%
1%
*
*
+/-5.5

White
Non
College
Grad
-------27%
58%
9%
4%
1%
1%
*
+/-5.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-19-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P5/P5A
P5. Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state
included Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party's candidate, Donald Trump as
the Republican Party's candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party
candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party candidate, who would you be more
likely to vote for?
P5a. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Likely Voters

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton, the Democrat


Trump, the Republican
Johnson, the Libertarian
Stein, Green party
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----38%
45%
12%
4%
1%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Democrat
----90%
2%
4%
4%
*
*
*
+/-6.5

Independent
-----28%
43%
18%
7%
2%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Republican
-----5%
83%
10%
*
1%
1%
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----79%
4%
6%
12%
*
*
*
+/-8.0

Moderate
----45%
34%
15%
3%
3%
1%
*
+/-6.0

Total
----38%
45%
12%
4%
1%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------38%
48%
30%
44%
36%
44%
36%
52%
34%
50%
13%
6%
13%
16%
7%
3%
7%
3%
4%
5%
1%
*
2%
2%
*
1%
3%
*
1%
1%
*
*
*
*
*
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----38%
45%
12%
4%
1%
1%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----100%
*
*
*
100%
*
*
*
66%
*
*
22%
*
*
7%
*
*
4%
*
*
1%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----25%
45%
61%
35%
9%
13%
2%
5%
1%
1%
2%
*
*
*
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

Conservative
------11%
74%
12%
1%
1%
1%
*
+/-5.5

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----27%
30%
42%
62%
55%
40%
7%
11%
12%
3%
2%
5%
*
2%
1%
*
*
1%
*
*
*
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-20-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question S1
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Ann Kirkpatrick, the
Democrat and John McCain, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for?
Base = Registered Voters
Total
Men
Women
White
----------------Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
38%
35%
40%
34%
John McCain, the Republican
50%
52%
47%
55%
Other
2%
1%
2%
2%
None of the above/Neither
7%
7%
8%
8%
No opinion
4%
5%
3%
2%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0
Total
----Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
38%
John McCain, the Republican
50%
Other
2%
None of the above/Neither
7%
No opinion
4%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Under
Total
$50K
--------Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
38%
39%
John McCain, the Republican
50%
50%
Other
2%
1%
None of the above/Neither
7%
7%
No opinion
4%
3%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------50%
38%
*
5%
6%
+/-7.5

5064
----37%
53%
3%
6%
1%
+/-6.0

$50K
or more
------37%
52%
2%
7%
2%
+/-4.5

65+
----39%
52%
2%
6%
2%
+/-5.0

College
Grad
------45%
42%
1%
7%
4%
+/-5.0

Independent
-----33%
48%
2%
11%
7%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----11%
76%
2%
9%
1%
+/-6.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
34%
N/A
58%
N/A
1%
N/A
5%
N/A
2%
+/-5.5
Under
45
----37%
45%
*
10%
7%
+/-8.5

Non
College
Grad
-------34%
53%
2%
7%
4%
+/-4.5
Liberal
----68%
24%
*
5%
3%
+/-7.5

45 and
Older
-----38%
52%
2%
6%
2%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------29%
59%
3%
8%
1%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------42%
47%
1%
6%
3%
+/-5.5

Total
----Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
38%
John McCain, the Republican
50%
Other
2%
None of the above/Neither
7%
No opinion
4%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5

Democrat
----74%
24%
*
1%
1%
+/-6.5

Moderate
----42%
47%
1%
6%
4%
+/-5.5

Total
----Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
38%
John McCain, the Republican
50%
Other
2%
None of the above/Neither
7%
No opinion
4%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------35%
55%
35%
38%
39%
53%
33%
52%
51%
47%
2%
2%
1%
1%
3%
6%
9%
9%
5%
7%
5%
1%
3%
4%
4%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
38%
John McCain, the Republican
50%
Other
2%
None of the above/Neither
7%
No opinion
4%
Sampling Error
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----66%
18%
26%
28%
64%
60%
*
3%
2%
2%
11%
9%
3%
5%
3%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----25%
45%
64%
42%
3%
1%
7%
7%
2%
5%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----34%
51%
3%
10%
2%
+/-5.5

Conservative
------19%
68%
3%
8%
2%
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----35%
37%
39%
55%
50%
50%
3%
2%
1%
6%
8%
6%
2%
3%
4%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-21-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question S1/S1A
S1. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Ann Kirkpatrick, the
Democrat and John McCain, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for?
S1a. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Registered Voters

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------39%
37%
41%
34%
52%
54%
50%
57%
5%
5%
5%
5%
2%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----39%
52%
5%
2%
2%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------55%
40%
4%
*
1%
+/-7.5

5064
----38%
55%
3%
3%
1%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------37%
55%
5%
2%
2%
+/-4.5

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----39%
52%
5%
2%
2%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----75%
24%
1%
*
*
+/-6.5

Total
----39%
52%
5%
2%
2%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------36%
56%
36%
40%
40%
54%
35%
56%
52%
50%
5%
6%
5%
4%
6%
2%
2%
1%
1%
3%
2%
1%
1%
2%
2%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----39%
52%
5%
2%
2%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----68%
19%
27%
28%
68%
62%
2%
7%
8%
*
3%
2%
1%
3%
1%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----35%
51%
8%
2%
4%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----12%
79%
6%
3%
1%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----71%
25%
4%
*
1%
+/-7.5

Moderate
----44%
49%
3%
1%
2%
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----26%
47%
66%
44%
5%
5%
3%
1%
1%
3%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----35%
55%
7%
3%
1%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----39%
54%
4%
3%
1%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------30%
62%
4%
3%
1%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------42%
48%
6%
2%
1%
+/-5.5

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------45%
45%
6%
1%
2%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----41%
48%
8%
*
3%
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------39%
41%
52%
53%
5%
3%
2%
1%
2%
2%
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------37%
54%
6%
2%
1%
+/-4.5

65+
----40%
53%
4%
2%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
34%
N/A
59%
N/A
4%
N/A
1%
N/A
2%
+/-5.5

Conservative
------19%
70%
7%
3%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----35%
39%
40%
56%
53%
52%
5%
5%
5%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
2%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-22-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question S1/S1A
S1. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Ann Kirkpatrick, the
Democrat and John McCain, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for?
S1a. As of today, do you lean more toward...
Base = Likely Voters

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------39%
36%
41%
33%
52%
55%
50%
58%
5%
5%
5%
5%
2%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
2%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-5.0 +/-4.0

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----39%
52%
5%
2%
2%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------55%
40%
3%
1%
1%
+/-7.5

5064
----39%
54%
3%
4%
1%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------35%
56%
5%
2%
2%
+/-4.5

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----39%
52%
5%
2%
2%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----77%
22%
1%
*
*
+/-6.5

Total
----39%
52%
5%
2%
2%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------36%
55%
34%
40%
39%
55%
36%
58%
52%
50%
5%
6%
6%
4%
6%
2%
2%
*
1%
3%
3%
1%
2%
2%
2%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----39%
52%
5%
2%
2%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----71%
17%
24%
26%
69%
66%
2%
7%
7%
*
3%
1%
1%
3%
1%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.5

Independent
-----33%
53%
8%
2%
4%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----12%
78%
5%
3%
1%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----70%
25%
4%
*
1%
+/-8.0

Moderate
----44%
50%
4%
1%
2%
+/-6.0

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----26%
46%
66%
45%
5%
5%
2%
1%
1%
3%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----33%
56%
7%
3%
1%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----39%
54%
4%
2%
1%
+/-4.0
White
Non
College
Grad
-------28%
64%
5%
2%
1%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------42%
48%
7%
2%
1%
+/-5.5

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------46%
45%
6%
1%
2%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----38%
50%
8%
*
4%
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------39%
39%
52%
54%
5%
4%
2%
1%
2%
2%
+/-3.5 +/-6.5

Kirkpatrick, the Democrat


McCain, the Republican
None
Other
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------38%
54%
5%
2%
1%
+/-4.5

65+
----40%
53%
4%
2%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
34%
N/A
59%
N/A
4%
N/A
2%
N/A
2%
+/-5.5

Conservative
------19%
71%
6%
3%
*
+/-5.5

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----36%
39%
39%
56%
53%
52%
5%
5%
5%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
2%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-23-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question A1
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Base = Total Sample

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------48%
49%
48%
38%
46%
46%
46%
56%
5%
5%
6%
5%
+/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----48%
46%
5%
+/-3.0

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----58%
39%
3%
+/-8.0

Non-White
--------67%
28%
5%
+/-6.0

5064
----38%
56%
6%
+/-5.5

Non
College
Grad
-------47%
48%
5%
+/-4.0

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----48%
46%
5%
+/-3.0

Democrat
----88%
10%
2%
+/-6.0

Total
----48%
46%
5%
+/-3.0

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------51%
51%
40%
57%
40%
45%
40%
53%
39%
52%
4%
8%
7%
4%
8%
+/-4.0
+/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-4.5 +/-5.0

Total
----48%
46%
5%
+/-3.0

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----91%
5%
48%
8%
92%
45%
1%
3%
7%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----45%
47%
8%
+/-4.5

Republican
-----16%
80%
4%
+/-5.5

Liberal
----84%
14%
2%
+/-7.0

Moderate
----54%
41%
5%
+/-5.0

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----39%
53%
57%
40%
4%
6%
+/-5.5 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----36%
57%
6%
+/-5.0

45 and
Older
-----42%
55%
4%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------34%
60%
5%
+/-5.0

White
College
Grad
------47%
47%
6%
+/-5.5

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------53%
41%
6%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----57%
36%
7%
+/-6.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------48%
53%
46%
42%
5%
5%
+/-3.0 +/-5.5

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------47%
49%
4%
+/-4.5

65+
----42%
55%
3%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----70%
40%
24%
56%
6%
5%
+/-8.0 +/-5.0

Conservative
------26%
70%
4%
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----29%
38%
54%
67%
58%
41%
4%
4%
5%
+/-7.5
+/-4.5 +/-4.0

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-24-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question A1
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Base = Registered Voters

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------46%
46%
46%
41%
51%
52%
50%
57%
3%
2%
4%
3%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----46%
51%
3%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------62%
35%
2%
+/-7.5

5064
----38%
59%
4%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------44%
54%
2%
+/-4.5

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----46%
51%
3%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----87%
11%
2%
+/-6.5

Total
----46%
51%
3%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------46%
52%
43%
52%
42%
52%
42%
55%
45%
55%
2%
7%
2%
3%
3%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----46%
51%
3%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----91%
5%
48%
8%
92%
45%
1%
3%
7%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----45%
52%
3%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----10%
87%
3%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----86%
13%
1%
+/-7.5

Moderate
----53%
43%
3%
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----33%
53%
65%
43%
3%
3%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----38%
58%
4%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----40%
57%
2%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------37%
61%
2%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------47%
49%
4%
+/-5.5

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------52%
44%
4%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----56%
40%
4%
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------46%
49%
51%
49%
3%
2%
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------45%
53%
3%
+/-4.5

65+
----43%
56%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
42%
N/A
56%
N/A
1%
+/-5.5

Conservative
------19%
79%
3%
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----31%
38%
51%
67%
60%
47%
2%
2%
3%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-25-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question A1
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Base = Likely voters

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------46%
45%
46%
40%
51%
53%
49%
57%
3%
2%
4%
3%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-5.0 +/-4.0

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----46%
51%
3%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------64%
33%
2%
+/-7.5

5064
----38%
59%
3%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------44%
54%
2%
+/-4.5

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----46%
51%
3%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----88%
10%
2%
+/-6.5

Total
----46%
51%
3%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------46%
51%
41%
53%
42%
51%
42%
58%
43%
55%
3%
7%
2%
4%
3%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----46%
51%
3%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----93%
5%
49%
6%
92%
43%
1%
3%
8%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.5

Independent
-----46%
51%
4%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----9%
87%
3%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----91%
9%
1%
+/-8.0

Moderate
----53%
44%
3%
+/-6.0

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----32%
53%
65%
43%
2%
3%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----38%
58%
4%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----40%
57%
2%
+/-4.0
White
Non
College
Grad
-------37%
61%
2%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------45%
51%
4%
+/-5.5

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------51%
45%
4%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----55%
40%
4%
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------46%
50%
51%
49%
3%
2%
+/-3.5 +/-6.5

Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------44%
53%
3%
+/-4.5

65+
----42%
56%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
41%
N/A
57%
N/A
2%
+/-5.5

Conservative
------17%
80%
3%
+/-5.5

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----31%
38%
49%
67%
61%
48%
1%
1%
3%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-26-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P7A
Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Hillary Clinton
or Donald Trump would better handle that issue if they were elected President.
A. The economy
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------42%
38%
45%
33%
54%
57%
52%
63%
3%
5%
2%
3%
1%
*
1%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----42%
54%
3%
1%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------61%
35%
4%
*
+/-7.5

5064
----35%
62%
2%
*
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------39%
57%
3%
1%
+/-4.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----42%
54%
3%
1%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----88%
11%
1%
*
+/-6.5

Total
----42%
54%
3%
1%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------40%
55%
37%
49%
37%
56%
43%
57%
47%
59%
4%
2%
4%
3%
4%
*
*
1%
1%
*
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----42%
54%
3%
1%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----89%
1%
38%
10%
98%
46%
1%
1%
14%
*
*
2%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----37%
55%
7%
1%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----5%
93%
1%
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----83%
14%
3%
*
+/-7.5

Moderate
----47%
47%
5%
*
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----28%
49%
68%
47%
4%
3%
*
1%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----33%
63%
3%
1%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----37%
60%
2%
*
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------29%
67%
3%
1%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------42%
54%
3%
1%
+/-5.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------46%
49%
4%
1%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----49%
46%
5%
1%
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------42%
41%
54%
52%
3%
6%
1%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------42%
56%
2%
*
+/-4.5

65+
----41%
55%
3%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
34%
N/A
61%
N/A
4%
N/A
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------14%
83%
1%
1%
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----28%
33%
46%
67%
63%
50%
5%
3%
4%
*
1%
*
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-27-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P7B
Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Hillary Clinton
or Donald Trump would better handle that issue if they were elected President.
B. Foreign policy
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------53%
52%
54%
45%
42%
46%
39%
50%
4%
2%
5%
3%
1%
*
1%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----53%
42%
4%
1%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------72%
24%
4%
*
+/-7.5

5064
----44%
52%
3%
1%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------50%
47%
3%
1%
+/-4.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----53%
42%
4%
1%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----96%
4%
*
*
+/-6.5

Total
----53%
42%
4%
1%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------53%
60%
49%
60%
50%
42%
37%
47%
35%
45%
4%
3%
3%
5%
3%
1%
*
1%
*
2%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----53%
42%
4%
1%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----99%
8%
63%
*
88%
23%
*
2%
14%
*
2%
*
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----50%
41%
7%
1%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----18%
79%
2%
1%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----89%
10%
1%
*
+/-7.5

Moderate
----63%
31%
5%
1%
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----35%
63%
60%
32%
3%
4%
1%
1%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----43%
49%
5%
2%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----45%
51%
3%
1%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------39%
58%
2%
1%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------57%
36%
5%
2%
+/-5.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------60%
32%
7%
2%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----66%
29%
4%
1%
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------53%
50%
42%
45%
4%
4%
1%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------55%
40%
4%
1%
+/-4.5

65+
----48%
48%
4%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
47%
N/A
51%
N/A
2%
N/A
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------24%
70%
4%
2%
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----38%
45%
57%
59%
51%
38%
2%
4%
3%
1%
*
1%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-28-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P7C
Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Hillary Clinton
or Donald Trump would better handle that issue if they were elected President.
C. Immigration
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------45%
44%
46%
37%
51%
52%
50%
60%
3%
3%
3%
3%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----45%
51%
3%
*
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------65%
32%
4%
*
+/-7.5

5064
----34%
63%
3%
*
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------42%
54%
3%
*
+/-4.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----45%
51%
3%
*
+/-3.5

Democrat
----90%
8%
2%
*
+/-6.5

Total
----45%
51%
3%
*
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------46%
53%
38%
51%
43%
51%
39%
60%
45%
54%
3%
7%
2%
4%
3%
*
*
*
*
1%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----45%
51%
3%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----95%
3%
40%
4%
95%
48%
1%
1%
12%
*
*
*
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----42%
53%
5%
*
+/-5.5

Republican
-----8%
89%
2%
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----87%
11%
2%
*
+/-7.5

Moderate
----49%
47%
3%
1%
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----28%
54%
67%
43%
4%
3%
*
*
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----35%
61%
3%
1%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----38%
59%
3%
*
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------32%
65%
3%
*
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------48%
49%
3%
1%
+/-5.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------51%
45%
3%
1%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----57%
39%
4%
*
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------45%
46%
51%
51%
3%
3%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------45%
52%
3%
*
+/-4.5

65+
----43%
54%
2%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
38%
N/A
58%
N/A
4%
N/A
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------19%
78%
3%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----31%
36%
51%
67%
61%
46%
2%
3%
3%
*
*
*
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-29-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P7D
Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Hillary Clinton
or Donald Trump would better handle that issue if they were elected President.
D. Terrorism
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------43%
39%
47%
36%
51%
57%
46%
59%
5%
5%
6%
5%
*
*
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----43%
51%
5%
*
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------61%
34%
5%
*
+/-7.5

5064
----37%
60%
2%
1%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------40%
56%
4%
*
+/-4.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----43%
51%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Democrat
----87%
10%
3%
*
+/-6.5

Total
----43%
51%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------43%
52%
37%
49%
41%
51%
43%
58%
46%
52%
6%
5%
4%
5%
6%
*
*
*
*
1%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----43%
51%
5%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----90%
2%
41%
7%
96%
40%
2%
2%
18%
*
*
1%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----39%
52%
8%
*
+/-5.5

Republican
-----9%
88%
3%
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----81%
16%
3%
*
+/-7.5

Moderate
----49%
43%
8%
*
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----26%
52%
69%
42%
5%
5%
*
*
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----37%
56%
6%
1%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----37%
59%
3%
1%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------30%
65%
5%
*
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------47%
49%
4%
*
+/-5.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------50%
43%
6%
*
+/-5.0

Under
45
----52%
40%
8%
*
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------43%
42%
51%
53%
5%
4%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------44%
50%
6%
*
+/-4.5

65+
----41%
56%
3%
*
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
34%
N/A
62%
N/A
4%
N/A
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------18%
79%
3%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----29%
35%
48%
68%
61%
47%
3%
4%
5%
*
*
*
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-30-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P7E
Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Hillary Clinton
or Donald Trump would better handle that issue if they were elected President.
E. Health care
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------46%
44%
48%
39%
49%
50%
47%
56%
5%
5%
4%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----46%
49%
5%
1%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------64%
30%
5%
1%
+/-7.5

5064
----41%
56%
2%
1%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------43%
52%
4%
*
+/-4.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----46%
49%
5%
1%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----91%
4%
4%
1%
+/-6.5

Total
----46%
49%
5%
1%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------44%
59%
44%
55%
39%
51%
38%
50%
41%
55%
5%
4%
5%
4%
5%
1%
*
1%
*
1%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----46%
49%
5%
1%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----92%
5%
46%
5%
93%
38%
3%
2%
14%
*
1%
2%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----40%
51%
7%
1%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----13%
86%
1%
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----86%
10%
3%
*
+/-7.5

Moderate
----51%
40%
8%
1%
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----29%
55%
67%
39%
4%
5%
1%
1%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----38%
57%
5%
1%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----43%
54%
3%
1%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------35%
62%
3%
*
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------47%
45%
5%
2%
+/-5.5

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------52%
40%
6%
2%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----51%
41%
7%
1%
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------46%
47%
49%
47%
5%
5%
1%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Clinton
Trump
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------45%
50%
4%
1%
+/-4.5

65+
----46%
50%
2%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
40%
N/A
55%
N/A
4%
N/A
1%
+/-5.5

Conservative
------20%
77%
2%
1%
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----36%
41%
49%
59%
55%
46%
3%
4%
5%
1%
1%
1%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-31-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P8A
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one
applies more to Hillary Clinton or more to Donald Trump. Feel free to name a candidate even
if you may not support him or her.
A. Shares your values
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------43%
40%
47%
35%
44%
46%
43%
53%
1%
3%
*
2%
10%
11%
10%
11%
1%
*
1%
*
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----43%
44%
1%
10%
1%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------64%
25%
2%
9%
1%
+/-7.5

5064
----35%
57%
1%
6%
1%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------41%
48%
2%
9%
1%
+/-4.5

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----43%
44%
1%
10%
1%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----92%
4%
1%
3%
*
+/-6.5

Total
----43%
44%
1%
10%
1%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------42%
55%
41%
51%
38%
45%
33%
47%
37%
46%
1%
2%
1%
1%
3%
11%
10%
9%
11%
13%
*
*
2%
*
*
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----43%
44%
1%
10%
1%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----94%
*
39%
2%
91%
24%
2%
1%
1%
2%
7%
34%
*
*
2%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----38%
43%
2%
17%
*
+/-5.5

Republican
-----6%
82%
1%
9%
1%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----86%
10%
1%
2%
1%
+/-7.5

Moderate
----48%
35%
2%
14%
1%
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----25%
53%
60%
35%
3%
1%
10%
10%
1%
*
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----36%
53%
*
11%
*
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----38%
53%
1%
7%
1%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------30%
59%
2%
9%
*
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------45%
41%
*
14%
*
+/-5.5

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------49%
35%
1%
15%
*
+/-5.0

Under
45
----52%
29%
3%
16%
*
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------43%
45%
44%
45%
1%
1%
10%
8%
1%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------42%
42%
2%
13%
*
+/-4.5

65+
----41%
51%
*
7%
1%
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
33%
N/A
52%
N/A
3%
N/A
11%
N/A
1%
+/-5.5

Conservative
------16%
72%
1%
11%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----29%
35%
48%
60%
55%
39%
2%
1%
2%
8%
9%
11%
1%
1%
1%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-32-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P8B
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one
applies more to Hillary Clinton or more to Donald Trump. Feel free to name a candidate even
if you may not support him or her.
B. Can handle the responsibilities of commander in chief
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------49%
45%
53%
41%
44%
46%
41%
52%
1%
2%
1%
2%
5%
6%
4%
5%
1%
1%
*
1%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----49%
44%
1%
5%
1%
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------67%
25%
1%
7%
1%
+/-7.5

5064
----42%
54%
1%
2%
1%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------45%
48%
2%
5%
1%
+/-4.5

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----49%
44%
1%
5%
1%
+/-3.5

Democrat
----93%
4%
2%
1%
1%
+/-6.5

Total
----49%
44%
1%
5%
1%
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------48%
56%
47%
57%
43%
45%
37%
46%
37%
48%
1%
5%
*
2%
2%
6%
2%
5%
4%
7%
*
*
2%
*
*
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----49%
44%
1%
5%
1%
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----95%
4%
59%
3%
92%
17%
1%
1%
3%
*
3%
20%
1%
*
1%
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----45%
44%
1%
10%
*
+/-5.5

Republican
-----14%
80%
2%
3%
1%
+/-6.0

Liberal
----86%
9%
1%
3%
1%
+/-7.5

Moderate
----59%
35%
1%
5%
*
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----33%
58%
59%
35%
2%
1%
5%
5%
1%
1%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----42%
53%
1%
4%
1%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----42%
52%
1%
3%
1%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------34%
58%
2%
5%
1%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------55%
39%
*
5%
*
+/-5.5

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------58%
35%
*
6%
*
+/-5.0

Under
45
----60%
30%
2%
8%
*
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------49%
48%
44%
44%
1%
1%
5%
6%
1%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------50%
42%
2%
5%
*
+/-4.5

65+
----44%
51%
1%
4%
*
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
41%
N/A
51%
N/A
3%
N/A
6%
N/A
1%
+/-5.5

Conservative
------21%
70%
2%
7%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----35%
40%
54%
56%
53%
38%
1%
2%
1%
7%
6%
5%
1%
*
1%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-33-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question P8C
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one
applies more to Hillary Clinton or more to Donald Trump. Feel free to name a candidate even
if you may not support him or her.
C. Is more honest and trustworthy
Base = Registered Voters

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------33%
32%
35%
26%
49%
51%
47%
57%
1%
1%
*
1%
16%
15%
17%
15%
*
*
1%
1%
+/-3.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.0

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----33%
49%
1%
16%
*
+/-3.5

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------51%
30%
*
19%
*
+/-7.5

5064
----30%
63%
*
7%
1%
+/-6.0

Non
College
Grad
-------32%
52%
1%
14%
*
+/-4.5

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----33%
49%
1%
16%
*
+/-3.5

Democrat
----81%
8%
2%
9%
*
+/-6.5

Total
----33%
49%
1%
16%
*
+/-3.5

Rest
of
SubMaricopa
Pima
state
Urban
urban
-------- ------ -------------33%
43%
30%
41%
27%
49%
37%
58%
42%
52%
*
2%
1%
*
1%
18%
19%
11%
17%
19%
1%
*
*
*
1%
+/-4.5
+/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.5

Total
----33%
49%
1%
16%
*
+/-3.5

Clinton Trump
Voters
Voters Others
------- ------ -----76%
*
23%
6%
93%
36%
2%
*
*
15%
6%
41%
1%
*
*
+/-5.5 +/-5.0 +/-8.0

Independent
-----24%
49%
*
27%
1%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----3%
87%
*
9%
*
+/-6.0

Liberal
----68%
17%
1%
13%
*
+/-7.5

Moderate
----37%
41%
1%
20%
1%
+/-5.5

White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----22%
40%
64%
41%
1%
1%
13%
18%
*
1%
+/-6.0 +/-4.0

White
Women
-----27%
58%
*
14%
1%
+/-5.5

45 and
Older
-----31%
57%
*
11%
1%
+/-3.5
White
Non
College
Grad
-------22%
62%
1%
14%
1%
+/-5.5

White
College
Grad
------34%
47%
*
18%
*
+/-5.5

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

College
Grad
------36%
42%
*
21%
1%
+/-5.0

Under
45
----36%
38%
1%
26%
*
+/-8.5

Under
Total
$50K
--------33%
34%
49%
50%
1%
1%
16%
15%
*
*
+/-3.5 +/-6.0

Clinton
Trump
Both
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

$50K
or more
------32%
48%
1%
19%
1%
+/-4.5

65+
----36%
51%
*
12%
*
+/-5.0

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
25%
N/A
56%
N/A
2%
N/A
16%
N/A
*
+/-5.5

Conservative
------11%
75%
*
14%
*
+/-5.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVeteran Vet HH Vet HH


------- ------ -----28%
28%
37%
62%
57%
45%
*
*
1%
10%
14%
16%
*
*
1%
+/-8.0
+/-4.5 +/-4.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-34-

August 18-23, 2016

Arizona CNN/ORC International Poll -- August 18 to 23, 2016


Question R4
If the Republican Senate primary in Arizona were held today, please tell me whichof the following people
you would be most likely to support.
Base = Likely Republican Primary Voters

John McCain
Kelli Ward
Clair Van Steenwyk
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
Men
Women
White
----------------55%
50%
61%
52%
29%
36%
21%
33%
4%
5%
4%
5%
1%
1%
2%
1%
7%
7%
7%
6%
3%
2%
5%
3%
+/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0

John McCain
Kelli Ward
Clair Van Steenwyk
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----55%
29%
4%
1%
7%
3%
+/-5.0

John McCain
Kelli Ward
Clair Van Steenwyk
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----55%
29%
4%
1%
7%
3%
+/-5.0

John McCain
Kelli Ward
Clair Van Steenwyk
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----55%
29%
4%
1%
7%
3%
+/-5.0

John McCain
Kelli Ward
Clair Van Steenwyk
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

John McCain
Kelli Ward
Clair Van Steenwyk
Other
Neither
No opinion
Sampling Error

Total
----55%
29%
4%
1%
7%
3%
+/-5.0

Total
----55%
29%
4%
1%
7%
3%
+/-5.0

1834
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

3549
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Under
$50K
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Pima
-----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Trump
Voters
-----50%
31%
6%
2%
7%
4%
+/-5.5

Republican
-----59%
28%
4%
1%
5%
4%
+/-6.0
Rest
of
state
-----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Others
-----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

White
Hispanic Men
-------- -----N/A
46%
N/A
42%
N/A
6%
N/A
1%
N/A
4%
N/A
1%
+/-7.5

65+
----57%
27%
5%
*
4%
8%
+/-7.0

College
Grad
------53%
35%
3%
2%
5%
2%
+/-7.5

Independent
-----49%
30%
6%
2%
10%
3%
+/-8.0

Maricopa
-------59%
27%
3%
1%
6%
3%
+/-6.0
Clinton
Voters
------N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

5064
----50%
39%
4%
1%
4%
2%
+/-8.5

$50K
or more
------55%
31%
6%
1%
5%
2%
+/-6.5

Democrat
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non-White
--------N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Non
College
Grad
-------56%
26%
5%
1%
8%
4%
+/-6.5
Liberal
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Under
45
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

45 and
Older
-----54%
33%
4%
1%
3%
4%
+/-5.0
White
Non
College
Grad
-------51%
31%
6%
1%
7%
4%
+/-7.0

White
College
Grad
------52%
37%
3%
2%
3%
2%
+/-8.0
Moderate
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

SubUrban
urban
--------54%
57%
29%
28%
2%
5%
2%
*
9%
5%
4%
4%
+/-7.5 +/-7.5
White
Evangelicals Others
------ -----56%
54%
28%
30%
5%
4%
*
3%
8%
5%
2%
5%
+/-7.5 +/-6.5

White
Women
-----56%
25%
4%
2%
8%
5%
+/-7.5

Conservative
------51%
36%
3%
1%
7%
3%
+/-6.0

Rural
----N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Veteran
------N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

NonVet HH Vet HH
------ -----55%
56%
32%
28%
3%
5%
2%
1%
5%
8%
4%
2%
+/-6.0 +/-6.5

* percentage less than 1%

POLL AZ1
3

-35-

August 18-23, 2016

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